Retail Channel $ Update – June Monthly & July Advance

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In July, the Commodities inflation CPI rose slightly to 0.7% from 0.6% and Total Retail sales were +4.3% vs 24, -7.8% below their average July Lift. The Relevant Retail CPI remained stable at 1.2% and sales were +4.8% vs 24, +1.7% above average. There are other factors currently impacting sales, including high cumulative inflation and pre-tarifflation binge buying. The situation is complex and improving but the problem with YOY drops and the size of sales lifts is still very real.

We’ll continue to track the retail market with data from 2 reports provided by the Census Bureau and factor in a targeted CPI. The reports are the Monthly and the Advance Retail Sales Reports. Both are derived from sales data gathered from retailers across the U.S. and are published monthly at the same time. The Advance Report has a smaller sample size so it can be published quickly – about 2 weeks after month end. The Monthly Report includes data from all respondents, so it takes longer to compile the data – about 6 weeks. Although the sample size for the Advance report is smaller, the results over the years have proven it to be statistically accurate with the Monthly reports. The biggest difference is that the full sample in the Monthly report allows us to “drill” a little deeper into the retail channels.

We will begin with the June Monthly Report and then go to the July Advance Report. Our focus is comparing to last year but also 21 & 19. We’ll show both actual and the “real” change in sales as we factor inflation into the data.

Both reports include the following:

  • Total Retail, Restaurants, Auto, Gas Stations and Relevant Retail (removing Restaurants, Auto and Gas)
  • Individual Channel Data – This is more detailed in the Monthly reports, and we’ll focus on Pet Relevant Channels.

The data will be presented in detailed charts to facilitate visual comparison between groups/channels. The charts will show 11 separate measurements. To save space they will be displayed in a stacked bar format for the channel charts.

  • Current Month change – % & $ vs previous month
  • Current Month change – % & $ vs same month last year and vs 2021.
    • Current Month Real change vs last year and vs 2021 – % factoring in inflation
  • Current Ytd change – % & $ for this year vs last year, 2021 & 2019.
    • Current Ytd Real change % for this year vs last year and vs 2021 and 2019
  • Monthly & Ytd $ & CPIs for this year vs last year and vs 2021 which are targeted by channel will also be shown. (CPI Details are at the end of the report)

First, the June Monthly. All were down from May but there were only 2 actual YOY sales drops, Gas Stations vs 24. Note: They are still selling less product than in 2019. 3 groups are “all positive”, the same as March>May. Relevant Retail has been all positive in 15 of the last 19 months and in 11 of the last 13. ($ are Not Seasonally Adjusted)

The June Monthly is $2.8B more than the Advance report. Restaurants: +$0.2B; Auto: +$0.2B; Gas Stations: +$0.6B; Relevant Retail: +$1.9B. All were down from May. A May>Jun decrease in Total Retail  has happened in all but 4 years since 1992. However, the -4.9% drop was more than double the -2.0% average. There were only 2 YOY drops in actual sales, the same as Mar>May. There were only 3 “real” sales drops, the same as May, but down from 4 in April and 5 in March. 3 groups were again “all positive” (Mar>Jun). Restaurants still have the biggest increases vs 21 & 19 but Relevant Retail stayed at the top of “real” performance vs 2019. However, only 53% of their growth is real.

Now, let’s see how some Key Pet Relevant channels did in June (83% of June Ytd Rel Retl $)

Overall– 10 of 11 were down from May. Vs Jun 24, 9 were actually and 8 “really” up. Vs Jun 21, 8 were up but only 6 were real increases. Vs 2019, Only Dept Strs were actually & really down but Off/Gift/Souv were really down.

  • Building Material Stores – The pandemic focus on home has produced sales growth of 30.0% since 2019. Prices for the Bldg/Matl group have inflated 17.7% from 21 and 22.7% from 2019 which is having an impact. Sales vs May were -4.9% for HomeCtr/Hdwe and -15.3% for Farm Stores. Vs other years, Farm stores are actually up for all, but Home Center/Hardware are only actually up vs Jun 24 & 2019. They are really down for all but vs 2019. Farm stores are only really down monthly & Ytd vs 21. Plus, only 20% of the Bldg Materials group’s 19>25 lift was real. Avg 19>25 Growth: HomeCtr/Hdwe: 4.1%, Real: 0.6%; Farm: 6.3%, Real: 2.7%
  • Food & Drug – Both are essential. Except for the pandemic food binge buying, they tend to have smaller changes in $. Vs May: Supermarkets: -4.8%; Drug: -1.3%. In terms of inflation, the Grocery rate is now 12 times the rate for Drug/Med products. Drug Stores are positive in all measurements and 68% of their 2019>25 growth is real. Supermarkets’ actual $ are up in all comparisons. They are only “really” down monthly and Ytd vs 2021. However, only 9.9% of their 19>25 increase is real growth. Avg 19>25 Growth: Supermarkets: +4.9%, Real: +0.5%; Drug Stores: +5.4%, Real: +3.8%.
  • Sporting Goods Stores – They also benefited from the pandemic in that consumers turned to self-entertainment, especially sports & outdoor activities. Sales are up 1.5% from May, but their only positives are vs 2019 & real Ytd vs 2024. Prices are still deflating, -2.5% vs 24. Deflation started in April 23 and is a big change from +1.1% in 22>23 and +7.9% in 21>22. This caused 70.6% of their 31.6% lift since 19 to be real. Avg 19>25 Growth Rate is: +4.7%; Real: +3.4%.
  • Gen Mdse Stores – Sales were -5.1% vs May, but all YOY sales – actual & real were up for Club/SupCtrs and $ Stores. Department Stores are negative in all comparisons. Their Actual sales are even -29.2% from 19 (Real: -35.9%). The other channels have an average of 43.1% in real growth. Avg 19>25 Growth: SupCtr/Club: 5.1%, Real: 2.4%; $/Value Strs: +5.4%, Real: +2.6%; Dept. Strs: -5.6%, Real: -7.1%.
  • Office, Gift & Souvenir Stores – After a 34.3% lift last month, sales fell slightly from May, -2.2%. They are only really down Ytd vs 21 & 19. Their recovery started late, but their progress may be slowly restarting again. They are now actually up vs 2019. Avg Growth Rate: +0.3%, Real: -1.4%
  • Internet/Mail Order – Sales are -3.8% from May but set a new June record of $112.6B. All measurements are positive, but their YOY growth, +7.1%, is only 49% of their average since 2019. However, 83.1% of their 126.4% growth since 2019 is real. Avg Growth: +14.6%, Real: +12.7%. As expected, they are by far the growth leader since 2019.
  • A/O Miscellaneous – Pet Stores are 22>24% of total $. In May 2020 they began their recovery which reached $100B for the first time in 2021. In 2022 their sales dipped in Jan, Jul, Sep>Nov, rose in Dec, fell in Jan>Feb 23, grew Mar>May, fell Jun>Aug, rose Sep>Nov, fell Dec>Jan 24, grew Feb>May, fell Jun>Sep, grew Oct, fell Nov, rose Dec, fell Jan>Feb, grew Mar>May, fell -1.8% in June. All comparisons are again positive, and they are in 2nd place, behind the Internet, in the % increase vs 19 and vs 21. Also, 77% of their 70.7% growth since 2019 is real. Average 19>25 Growth: 9.3%, Real: +7.5%

June had its usual drop vs May. All Big groups and 10 of 11 smaller channels were down in $. The YOY June lift was 10.5% below avg for Total and 7.6% below avg for Relevant Retl – much better but still below avg. Prices are only deflating in 1 channel (5 in May) but cumulative inflation still impacts sales as only 6 channels were really up vs June 21. The Retail Recovery slowly continues. The June commodities CPI of 0.6% rose slightly to 0.7% in July. Let’s see if it impacts Retail.

Jun>Jul sales were up for all. A Jun>Jul Total Retail lift has happened in 55% of the years since 1992 but the 3.9% gain is 13 times bigger than the +0.3% avg change. There were 2 YOY $ drops, the same as Apr>Jun. $ for all Big Groups but Gas Stations were up vs July 24 but the Total Retail lift of 4.3% vs Jul 24 was 7.8% below their +4.7% 92>24 avg. However, the Relevant Retail 4.8% increase vs 24 was 1.7% above their +4.7% avg. Inflation is still a factor. The CPI for all commodities is only 0.7% but it is still 11.9% vs 21. The inflation surge was accelerating back then (+9.0%). There is also some good “real” news. Only 1 “real” measurement was down – 3 in May>Jun. Plus, Gas Stations are now “really” up vs 2019 and like Mar>Jun, 3 Big Groups were all positive. Relevant Retail has been all positive in 12 of the last 14 months.

Overall Inflation Reality– The Total Retail CPI rose to 0.7% but the $ lift vs 24 was only 7.8% below avg. The Restaurant CPI rose to +3.9% but their $ lift was now 6.3%  above avg. Gas prices fell to -9.3% but they are still in turmoil. Auto inflation rose to 2.0% but it is only 4.6% vs 21. Auto sales grew 4.8% vs 24 (14.1% above avg – pre-tariff buying). Inflation stayed at 1.2% for Relevant Retail. Their YOY lift was 1.7% above avg and they are again all positive. Notable progress…

Total Retail – Since Jun 20, every month but Apr 23, Jun 24 & Feb 25 has set a monthly $ales record. In 2023>25, Sales were on a roller coaster. Up Jul>Aug, down Sep, up Oct>Dec, down Jan 24, up Feb>Mar, down April, up May, down Jun, up Jul>Aug, down Sep, up Oct>Dec, down Jan>Feb 25, up Mar, down Apr, up May, down Jun, up in July. Prices are 0.7% and YOY sales are +4.3%, 7.8% below the 92>24 avg change of 4.7%. 42.8% of the 19>25 growth is real. Prices are still inflating, and cumulative inflation is still impacting sales. Growth: 24>25: 3.8%;Avg 19>25: +6.3%, Real: +2.9%.

Restaurants – They were hit hard by the pandemic and didn’t begin recovery until March 2021. However, they have had strong growth since then, exceeding $1T for the 1st time in 2023. July $ are up vs 24 and they have the biggest lifts vs 21 & 19. Inflation rose to 3.9% vs 24 but it is +24.2% vs 21 and +31.3% vs 19. Their 5.9% YOY lift is 6.3% above their +5.3% 92>24 avg. They are all positive again, but just 34.6% of their 57.2% growth since 2019 is real. They are 3rd in performance behind Relevant & Total Retail. Recovery started late but inflation started early. Growth: 5.2%; Avg 19>25:+7.8%, Real: +3.1%. They just account for 13.8% of Total Retail $, but their strong growth has helped Total Retail.

Auto (Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers) – They overcame the stay-at-home attitude with great deals and advertising. They finished 2020 up 1% vs 2019 and hit a record $1.48T in 2021 but much of it was due to skyrocketing inflation. In 22, sales got on a rollercoaster. Inflation started to drop mid-year, but it caused 4 down months in actual $. Their YE real 2022 sales numbers were even worse, -8.2% vs 21 and -8.9% vs 19. 23 started a sales rollercoaster but the $ hit a record, $1.595T. $ fell in Jan 24, grew Feb>Mar, fell Apr, grew May, fell June, grew Jul>Aug, fell Sep, grew Oct, fell Nov, grew Dec, fell Jan>Feb 25, grew Mar, fell Apr>Jun, rose July. July $ were +4.8% vs 24. (14.1% above avg – pretariff buying). Only Ytd real $ vs 21 are negative, but just 26.7% of 19>25 growth is real. Growth: 5.0%;Avg 19>25: +5.4%, Real: +1.6%

Gas Stations – Gas Stations were hit hard by “stay at home”. They started recovery in Mar 21 and inflation began. Sales got on a rollercoaster in 22 but set a record, $583B. Inflation started to slow in Aug and prices slightly deflated in Dec & Feb 23, then strongly fell in Mar>Jul to -20.2%. In Aug they rose to -3.7%. In Sep they were +2.7% but began deflating to -4.2% in Feb 24. In Mar>May their $ grew, fell Jun, rose July, fell Aug/Sep, rose Oct, fell Nov>Feb, rose Mar>May, fell Jun, rose July. July $ vs 24: -2.7% (4.7% avg) but up vs A/O years. Real sales are now all positive. Growth: -3.6%; Avg 19>25: +3.2%, Real: 0.01%. They show the cumulative impact of inflation and how deflation can be both positive and negative.

Relevant Retail – Less Auto, Gas and Restaurants – They account for ≈60% of Total Retail $ in a variety of channels, so they took many different paths through the pandemic. Their only down month until Feb 25 was April 2020, and they led the way in Total Retail’s recovery. Sales got on a roller coaster in 2022, but all months set new records with December reaching a new all-time high, $481B, and an annual record of $4.81T. In 2023, the roller coaster continued. A December lift set a new monthly record of $494.7B & an annual record of $4.997T. Sales fell Jan>Feb 24, rose Mar, fell Apr, rose in May, fell in June, rose Jul>Aug, fell Sep, rose Oct>Jan 25, fell Feb, rose Mar>May, fell in June, rose in July. The July 4.8% YOY lift is 1.7% above their 92>24 avg of +4.7%. They are all positive again and 53% of their 46.7% 19>25 growth is real – #1 in performance. Growth: 4.1%; Avg 19>25: +6.6%, Real: +3.8%. In 2024 their inflation rate dropped from 3.2% to 0.1%, stabilized at 0.5% Dec>Jan, rose to 0.7% in Mar, slowed to 0.6% in Apr, rose to 0.8% in May and to 1.2% in Jun>Jul. Inflation is low but its cumulative impact can slow growth. We also saw tarifflation fear buying. We’ll see what happens.

YOY inflation is low, but cumulative & impending lifts can affect sales. In July, 2 actual YOY $ comparisons were negative, the same as Mar>Jun. In July, there was only 1 real drop –  3 in June. In June, Gas Stations were down vs 24 but only Restaurants had an above avg YOY lift. In July, Gas Stations were again down vs 24, but all but Total had above avg lifts. Plus, in July, 3 big groups were again all positive. Relevant Retail has now been all positive in 12 of the last 14 months. July sales rose vs June, but the lift size and the results were better than anticipated. The Retail recovery is growing

Here’s a more detailed look at July by Key Channels (98% of July Ytd Rel Retl $)

  • Relevant Retail: Growth: +4.1%; Avg 19>25: +6.6%, Real: +3.8%.8 of 11 were up from June. Vs Jul 24: 8 were up, Real: 9, Vs Jul 21: 8 were up, Real: 6. Vs 19: Only Dept Stores were down – both actually & really.
  • All Department Stores – This group was struggling before the pandemic hit them hard. They began recovery in March 2021. Sales are -0.5% from June and all actual & real YOY measurements are negative. Their -0.2% July YOY drop is much better than their -4.6% avg change. Growth: -2.6%; Avg 19>25: -5.7%, Real: -7.3%.
  • Club/SuprCtr/$- They fueled a big part of the recovery because they focus on value which has broad consumer appeal. $ales are +1.6% from June and they are positive in all measurements. However, only 42.9% of their 35.4% 19>25 lift is real. Their 3.3% YOY July lift is -61% below their 92>24 avg of +8.4%. Growth: 2.6%; Avg 19>25: +5.2%, Real: +2.4%.
  • Grocery- They depend on frequent purchases, so their changes are usually less radical. Actual $ are +4.6% from June and positive in all comparisons. Cumulative inflation has hit them hard as real $ are down monthly & Ytd vs 21. Only 8% of 19>25 growth is real, but their 3.4% YOY lift is 11% above avg. Growth: 2.9%; Avg 19>25: +4.8%, Real: +0.4%.
  • Health/Drug Stores – Many stores are essential, but consumers visit less frequently than Grocery stores. $ are +0.9% from June and they are positive in all comparisons. Inflation has been relatively low so 66% of their 35.4% 19>25 growth is real. Also, their +5.4% YOY lift vs Jul 24 is 3% above avg. Growth: 7.1%; Avg 19>25: +5.2%, Real: +3.6%
  • Clothing and Accessories – Clothes mattered less if you stayed home. That changed in March 2021 with strong growth through 2022. Sales are +5.6% from June and positive in all measurements. 69% of their 19>25 growth is real. $ are +7.4% vs Jul 24, 1.3 times more than their July avg (pre-tariff buying). Growth: 4.2%; Avg 19>25: +3.2%, Real:+2.3%
  • Home Furnishings – In mid-2020 consumers’ focus turned to their homes and furniture became a priority. Inflation is up to 5.2%. $ are +6.8% from June and are only really down monthly & Ytd vs 21. Only 19% of their 19>25 growth is real. YOY vs Jul 24: +5.8%, 90% above avg. (pre-tariff buying) Growth: 5.7%; Avg 19>25:+2.9%, Real:+0.6%
  • Electronic & Appliances – They have had many issues. Sales fell in Apr>May of 2020 and didn’t reach 2019 levels until March 21. $ are +2.9% from June but they are only actually up vs 2019. Strong deflation drove real numbers up so all comparisons are positive. Sales are -1.7% vs Jul 24. The avg is +2.2%. Growth: -1.6%; Avg 19>25: 0.5%, Real: +3.7%.
  • Building Material, Farm & Garden & Hardware – They truly benefited from the consumers’ focus on home. In 2022 the lift slowed as inflation grew to double digits. Prices turned up in Apr>Jul 25 and sales are -1.6% from June. Actual $ are only up monthly & Ytd vs 21 and vs 2019. Real sales are down for all but vs 2019. Just 18.1% of their 19>25 sales growth is real. YOY sales vs Jul 24 were -1.5%. Avg. is +4.3%. Growth: -0.5%; Avg 19>25: +4.4%, Real: +0.9%.
  • Sporting Goods, Hobby and Book Stores – Consumers turned their attention to recreation and Sporting Goods stores sales took off. Book & Hobby Stores recovered more slowly. They have been on a sales rollercoaster since June 24 and $ are +1.5% from June. Actual & real sales are only up vs Jul 24 & 19. Real sales are also up Ytd vs 24. 82% of their 19>25 growth is real. YOY Sales vs Jul 24 are +2.3%, -30% below avg. Growth: -0.4%; Avg 19>25: +3.9%, Real: +3.2%.
  • All Miscellaneous Stores – Pet Stores have been a key part of the strong and growing recovery of this group. They finished 2020 at +0.9% but sales took off in March 21 and have continued to grow. Sales are -4.2% vs June but positive in all comparisons. They are 2nd in the % increases vs 19 & vs 21 and 72.3% of their 51.9% 19>25 growth is real. Plus, their 10.3% YOY Jul lift is 149% more than their 92>24 avg of +4.1%. Growth: +8.2%; Avg 19>25: +7.2%, Real: 5.5%.
  • NonStore Retailers – 90% of their $ comes from Internet/Mail Order/TV. The pandemic accelerated online spending. They ended 2020 +21.4%. The growth continued in 2021 as sales exceeded $100B for the 1st time and they broke the $1 Trillion barrier. $ are +7.8% from June but their YOY lift of 8.3% is -21% below the 10.5% avg. However, they are positive in all comparisons and 82% of their 115.1% 19>25 growth is real. Growth: 6.7%; Avg 19>25: +13.6%, Real: +11.7%.

Recap – Driven by Relevant Retail, the Pandemic recovery was widespread by Y/E 2021. In 2022 we were hit with the strongest inflation in 40 years. Overall inflation has slowed considerably from its Jun 22 peak but again only 3 channels are deflating, down from 5 in May. Deflation helps, but cumulative inflation can still have a negative impact – slowed YOY growth and even sales drops. $ rose from June for 8 of 11 channels. All lifts were above avg and Relevant Retail was +3.7% vs a -0.2% avg. The biggest concern is still YOY drops and smaller lifts. Relevant Retail’s 4.8% lift vs Jul 24 was 1.7% above avg. 3 channels had a YOY drop vs Jul 24, 2 more than June but 3 less than Feb. 8 channels had YOY lifts, down from 10 in June. However, 5 of the lifts were above avg, the most in 25. There is more mixed news. In Mar>Jul 3 Big Groups were all positive. In July 5 smaller channels were also all positive, up from 4 in June and tied with May for the most in 25. Relevant Retail has been all positive in 12 of the last 14 months. The situation is definitely mixed and still concerning but positive progress is happening.

Finally, here are the details and updated inflation rates for the CPIs used to calculate the impact of inflation on retail groups and channels. This includes special aggregate CPIs created with the instruction and guidance of personnel from the US BLS. I also researched data from the last Economic Census to review the share of sales by product category for the various channels to help in selecting what expenditures to include in specific aggregates. Of course, none of these specially created aggregates are 100% accurate but they are much closer than the overall CPI or available aggregates. The data also includes the CPI changes vs 2021 to show cumulative inflation.

Monthly YOY CPI changes of 0.2% or more are highlighted. (Green = lower; Pink = higher)

Here are some answers to some obvious questions. Note: 18 of 28 had a significant CPI change. 14 were worse!

  1. Why is the group for Nonstore different from the Internet?
    • Non-store is not all internet. It also includes Fuel Oil Dealers, the non-motor fuel Energy Commodity.
  2. Why is there no Food at home included in Nonstore or Internet?
    • Online Grocery purchasing is becoming popular, but almost all is from companies whose major business is brick ‘n mortar. These online sales are recorded under their primary channel.
  3. 5 Channels have the same CPI aggregate but represent a variety of business types.
    • They also have a wide range of product types. Rather than try to build aggregates of a multitude of small expenditure categories, it seemed better to eliminate the biggest, influential groups that they don’t sell. This method is not perfect, but it is certainly closer than any existing aggregate.
  4. Why are Grocery and Supermarkets only tied to the Grocery CPI?
    • According to the Economic Census, 76% of their sales comes from Grocery products. Grocery Products are the driver. The balance of their sales comes from a collection of a multitude of categories.
  5. What about Drug/Health Stores only being tied to Medical Commodities.
    • An answer similar to the one for Grocery/Supermarkets. However, in this case Medical Commodities account for over 80% of these stores’ total sales.
  6. Why do SuperCtrs/Clubs and $ Stores have the same CPI?
    • Big Stores sell more fresh groceries, Groceries account for ¼ of $ Store sales. Same Ctgys – different mix.