Archive for category: Pet Market

The U.S. Retail market reached $8.39 Trillion in 2024 from all channels – Auto Dealers, Supermarkets, Restaurants, Online retailers and even Pet Stores. The $247B, +3.0% lift was down significantly from the pandemic recovery lift of +$1.12T, +18.3% in 2021. However, the Total Retail market is now $2.32T, 34.2% ahead of 2019. That’s a strong annual growth rate of +6.1%. (Data courtesy of the Census Bureau’s monthly retail trade report.)

In this report we will focus on the top 100 Retailers in the U.S. Market. The base data on the Top 100 comes from Kantar Research and was published by the National Retail Federation (NRF). The historical data for some companies that weren’t in the Top 100 all years from 2019>2023 was gathered from other reliable sources. In 2020, Restaurants were removed from the list and only Convenience stores sales for Gas Stations were included. I adjusted the 2019 list to reflect this change. This change means that the Top 100 now only includes Relevant Retail companies. The Top 100 account for 36.2% of the total market. This share peaked at 39.8% during the 2020 pandemic and has stabilized at 36% since then. However, the Top 100 are still the “Retail Elite”. The vast majority of the group also stock and sell a lot of Pet Products so their progress is critically important to the Pet Industry. Let’s get started in our analysis. The report does contain a lot of data, but no longer a store count. We’ll still break it up into smaller pieces to make it more digestible.

We will begin our report with an overview chart of the 2019>2024 annual sales history for major segments of the Retail Marketplace. The U.S. Retail market strongly recovered from the 2020 pandemic trauma and the resurgence became widespread across most channels. Our regular retail sales reports have shown that different defined retail channels often took a different path from 2019 to 2021. In the Spring of 2021 and throughout 2022 the retail market faced a new challenge – strong inflation. The YOY price increases were the largest in decades, even reaching double digits in October of 2021 (stayed for 11 months). The high rate didn’t start to slow until July of 2022. Although the increase rate has slowed, the retail market is now feeling the impact of high cumulative inflation. The Top 100 analysis allows us to see if the company revenue size was a factor in their overall pandemic/price journey from 2019>2024. The following chart shows the annual sales and market share as well as the changes in both for large retail subgroups that are based upon the amount of their annual revenue. Note: In comments we’ll show Avg Growth Rates – Actual & Real (Inflation Related)

• The Total Retail Market grew $247B, +3.0% in 2024. That is far less than the $1.12T, +18.3% in 2021 and even below pre-pandemic years: 2019, 3.6%; 2018, 4.9%; 2017, 4.3%. However, the average growth rate from 2019>24 is 6.7%, which is 72% above the 2016>19 rate of 3.9%. Factoring in inflation, Real 19>24 growth was +2.4%, below the 16>19 real rate of +2.7%. The impact of cumulative inflation – smaller sales increases and only 36% of 19>24 growth is real.
• The “Non-Relevant” Group (Restaurants, Auto Dlrs, Gas Stations) was hit hardest by the pandemic as sales fell -9.7% in 2020. They had a strong recovery as 20>22 sales grew $906B, 41.9%. Average annual growth: 18.8%. In 23 the increase slowed to 2.6% & 2.2% in 24. High inflation from 2019 was a factor. Gas: 27%; Auto: 24%; Restaurants: 28%
• Relevant Retail was the hero of the pandemic as they kept Total Retail positive in 2020. Their sales surged in the 2021 recovery then radically slowed in 23 (3.9%) & 24 (3.6%). They were still up $179B producing an average growth rate since 2019 of +7.1%. Their Real growth rate (considering inflation) was +3.9%. Their share of Total Retail has stabilized at 61% but it is down 2.9% from its peak of 64.6% in 2020. The story is complex. We’ll drill deeper.
• The Top 100 Retailers make up 58.8% of Relevant Retail and 36.2% of Total Retail. Sales have grown every year since 2019 but growth slowed markedly in 23 before an uptick in 24. Their market share has fallen since peaking in 2020 for Total Retail and 2019 for Relevant Retail. Their average growth since 2019 is +5.6%, but Real Growth is +3.4%. 60.7% of their growth is real.
• The biggest subgroup in $ales in the Top 100 is the Top 10 which accounts for 60.1% of the Top 100’s revenue, up from 55% in 2019. This group has been unchanged since 2015 and consists of Amazon, plus truly essential brick ‘n mortar retailers. Their biggest sales surge occurred in 2020 which was their peak in Total & Relevant Retail market share. Their growth slowed in 23 but rose in 24. Their average growth rate is +7.5%. Real growth was +4.3%,  57.3%.
• The Retailers ranked from #11 to #100 change slightly every year. Their sales in 2024 ranged from $4B to $71.1B and they accounted for 39.9% of the Top 100’s revenue. They have an unusual sales pattern in that their $46B decrease in 2020 is the only negative sales on the chart outside of the big drop by Rest/Auto/Gas. They did have a big 10.7% increase in 2021 but that fell to 1.9% in 23 & 1.5% in 24. They have lost market share in Relevant & Total Retail every year since 2019 but are still a big part of U.S. Retail. Avg Growth: +3.0%; Real: 2.3% – 75.3%.
• The Relevant Retailers outside of the Top 100 don’t get a lot of “press” but maybe they should. They currently account for 41.2% of Relevant Retail $ and 25.4% of Total Retail. They had the biggest percentage increase of any Relevant Retail subgroup overall and in all years but 2020 & 2024 (2^nd). Their increase is +9.5%. Real: +6.2%, the best numbers of any group on the chart. While this performance is amazing, perhaps the most important fact is that they delivered 60% of Relevant Retail’s sales increase in 2020 and even 52% of the lift from 2019>2024.

There is no doubt that the big retailers are critical to the success of the U.S. Retail Market. However, there are sometimes “hidden heroes” that should be noted.

The Top 100 only outperformed Total Retail in 2020 and 2024. In fact, their sales growth since 2019 trails Total Retail, Relevant Retail and even Rest/Auto/Gas. It still generates 36.2% of Total U.S. Retail $ so it is still very important. We also should remember that the Top 100 is really a contest with a changing list of winners. Companies drop out and new ones are added. This can be the result of mergers, acquisitions, surging or slumping sales or even a restructuring. In 2024,

3 were new: • JD Sports (Apparel)   • Urban Outfitters (Apparel)   • Grocery Outlet (Supermarket)

3 dropped off: • Southeastern Grocers (Supermarket)  • Big Lots (Small Format Value)  • Shell Oil (Convenience)

I think that we now have a good overview of U.S. Retail and the Top 100 so let’s ask and answer a very relevant question. How many Top 100 companies are buying and selling Pet Products? This will reinforce that Pets have become an integral part of the American Household and how fierce that the competition for the Pet Parents’ $ has become.

• We should note that the data in the chart only reflects the performance of the companies in the 2024 list since 2019 and is not being compared to the Top 100 list of companies from prior years
• 88 are selling some Pet Products in stores and/or online. This is 1 more company than 2023 and 8 more than the 1^st “official” all Relevant Retail Top 100 list in 2020.
  • Their Total Retail Sales of all products is $2.94 Trillion which is…
    • 96.9% of the total business for the Top 100
    • 56.9% of Relevant Retail
    • 35.1% of the Total Retail market
  • 74 Cos., with $2.77T in sales, sell pet products off the retail shelf – 91.1% of Top 100 $ & 53.5% of Relevant Retail.
    • In 2024, only 2 companies in the current Top 100 changed how they handle pet products – both chose in store. Victoria’s Secret added pet and Advance Auto made some Pet available in their stores.
    • As you can see by the growth in sales, “in store” is still the best way to sell pet.
  • Online only is another story and the story gets complicated.
    • Amazon includes Whole Foods, which has stores in 45 states so the Amazon $ are in the “Pet in Store” numbers.
    • As we said, one retailer now offers some Pet in store rather than online only. The Online only group had the smallest sales lift in 23>24, but they still lead Non-Pet in the 19>24 $ lift.
  • Some non-pet specialty retailers like Lulumon and Signet have had extraordinarily strong post pandemic growth. The growth in the whole non-pet group slowed in 2022, fell -2.7% in 2023 before rebounding slightly to +2.0% in 2024. Perhaps, more of them will see Pet as a real growth opportunity.

The pandemic caused our Pets to become an even more important part of our households. They are truly family. Pet products have long been an integral part of the strongest retailers and are now even more widespread across the entire U.S. marketplace. Of the Top 100, Companies doing 91% of sales stock & sell at least some pet items. However, there are thousands of additional “pet” retail outlets including 15,000 Grocery Stores, 10,000 Pet Stores, 16,000 Vet Clinics, 6,000 Pet Services businesses and more. Pet Products are on the shelf in over 200,000 U.S. brick ‘n mortar stores… plus the internet. Pet Products have become part of the new “normal” for the majority of U.S. Retailers.

Before we analyze the whole Top 100 list in greater detail let’s take a quick look at the Top 10 retailers in the U.S.

Except for changes in rank, this group has been incredibly stable. The list has been the same since 2013, with one slight qualification. In 2015 Albertsons purchased Safeway. The new Albertsons/Safeway group replaced the stand-alone Safeway company in the list. We have included the growth, both Actual & Real (Inflation was factored in using specifically targeted CPIs) for 23>24 & 19>24. Plus, the average growth rates for 19>24. Now let’s get into the numbers.

• Their Total Retail Sales were $1.83 Trillion which is:
  • 60.1% of Top 100 $ales, 0.8% above the previous 2023 peak (59.3%), but 5.1% more than 55% in 2019.
  • 35.3% of Relevant Retail, above 21>23 but down from 36.3% in 2020.
  • 21.8% of Total U.S. Retail $, above 2019 and 21>23, but down from 23.4% in 2020.
• In ranking, there was only 1 change. Walgreens & Target swapped places.
• Sales vs 23 are only actually & really down for Lowe’s, but Kroger is also really down.
• All are actually up vs 19, but Kroger & Walgreens were really down. The biggest growth came from Amazon. In average growth, 5 have rates over 7%, but 2 are really <0%. The group averages +7.5% with +4.3%, 57.3% being real.

Now we’ll look at the detailed list of the top 100. It is sorted by channel groups with subtotals in key columns. The data only reflects the situation for the current 2024 Top 100 Retailers. Retailers have slightly changed in some groups through the years but there has been very little difference in group share. CPI Note: To better reflect their “real” product sales, I used a specific CPI rate for each retailer. These ranged from individual expenditures, like Alcohol at Home for Total Wine & More to specially created targeted aggregates for Superstores/Clubs. For the group, the individual inflation results were then combined to more accurately reflect the group price changes .  There is not a lot of highlighting, but:

• Pet Columns ’24 & ‘23 – a “1” with an orange highlight indicates that products are only sold online.
• Rank Columns – 2024 changes in rank from the 2023 list are highlighted as follows:
  • Up 3-5 spots = Lt Blue; Up 6 or more = Green
  • Down 3-5 Spots = Yellow; Down 6 or more = Pink

Let’s get started. Remember, online $ are included in the sales of all companies.

Note:(*) in the 2019 $ column of some companies means the 2019 base was estimated from other sources.

Observations

• Alcohol Retailers first made the list in 2020 as consumers increased dining at home. Strong growth continues.
• Apparel – They were hit hard by the pandemic, but had a strong recovery in 21. The increase slowed to 5.3% in 2024 from +6.5% in 2023. 3 companies had sales decreases, but 4 had lifts over 8% from 23. No drop outs and JD Sports & Urban Outfitters were added. The channel now has 14 companies, the most ever and 50+% more than in 2019 (9). Also, 10 sell Pet. In 2019, there were 3. The average group sales increase was Actual: +5.9%; Real: +4.8% (81%).
• Auto – This group is unchanged from 2019. Their growth continues to slow, +5.0%, down from +6.5% in 23 and +5.5% in 2019. The only negative is Advance Auto is actually & really down from 23 and even really down vs 2019. They did move some pet items in store from online only. The group’s Avg Growth: +8.1%; Real: +3.4%. (42%).
• Commissary/Exchanges – They were on hold from 2019>22. The 22/23 lift was +5.9%, but 23/24 fell to +0.6%. Their Avg Actual Sales Lift is +1.5%, but their Real Sales Lift Avg is -3.2%.
• Convenience Stores – In 23 a big drop by 7-Eleven turned the group negative. In 24, Alimentation Couche-Tard sales were down and Shell fell off the list, but sales for the 4 remaining companies were +3.2% vs 23. The group’s Avg Actual Sales change: +5.3%; Real: +0.4%. (7.5% real)
• The decline in Department Stores was accelerated by the pandemic. Sales in the category grew in 22 because of the addition of Neiman Marcus. 2024 was bad. Only 2 of 7 companies had an actual & real lift vs 23. Vs 2019, 3 had an actual increase but real sales were negative for all. The group’s measurements are all negative. J.C. Penny, a hallmark in the department store channel, has by far the worst performance. Avg Growth: -2.5%; Real: -4.4%
• Drug Stores – Rite Aid filed for bankruptcy in 23 and have the only sales drop vs 23. Health Mart is really down. All have been closing stores since 2019. Good Neighbor & Rite Aid are actually & really down vs 19 but even Walgreens is really down. Actual Avg: +3.2%; Real: +1.6% (50% real). CVS has the most growth, but mainly from acquisitions

• Electronics/Entertainment – Sales vs 23 fell for all but Amazon & Apple but the Amazon increase was big enough to turn the group positive. Store closures continued, especially for electronics retailers.
  • Amazon Retail growth increased in 24 but is still only 66% of their average 19>23 growth. However, 85% is Real.
  • 3 were actually down vs 19 (4 real). Dell had the worst Actual, -8.2%. QVC had the worst Real, -8.4%.
  • 4 of 5 Electronics stores were down vs 23 but only 3 were down vs 2019. They continue to close stores. However, strong deflation has pushed real sales up so only Dell and Verizon are “really” down vs 2019.
  • Group avg growth, Actual: +8.3%; Real: +8.2%. Deflation in electronics was strong enough to impact the group.
• Farm– Tractor Supply growth slowed to 2.2% from 3.4% in 23 & 11.4% in 22. Avg Actual: +12.3%; Real: +7.9% (64%).
• Hobby & Crafts– Vs 23, all measurements are negative. Hobby Lobby is by far the best performer vs 2019. In fact, Michael’s sales are really down. Avg Group Growth: 3.5%; Real: +1.5%. 43% is real.
• Home Goods – Vs 23 the group and all but AVB & Overstock are down. Due to deflation, only Amway is really down. Vs 2019, only Amway is actually & really down, but Ikea is also really down. Avg growth: +4.5%; Real: +2.0% (44%).
• Home Improvement/Hardware – Sales vs last year turned negative in 23, -2.5%. The situation flipped in 24 to +2.0%. Lowes had the only drop – actual & real. Strong deflation helped.
  • Sales vs 2019 are even better. All measurements are positive but real for Menards, -10.4%.
  • Avg Actual Growth: +6.6%; Real: +2.5% ( 38% “Real” growth)
• Jewelry – Signet sales continued to drop, but at a slower rate, -4.9% vs -12.9% in 23. Avg: 8.1%; Real: 5.2% (64%).
• Mass Merchants have 3 of the 7 largest volume retailers in America – Wal-Mart, Costco and Target. However, the value and selection offered by the whole group has increased its importance to consumers due to the pandemic.
  • Wal-Mart $ were up 6.5% in 2024, below 6.9% in 2023, 8.7% in 2022 and their average 19>24 increase in sales: +7.3%. Their business is driven by SuperCenters. Groceries drove up cumulative inflation so their real sales avg increase was 4.1%, despite deflation in many general merchandise categories. 56% of their sales are real.
  • Costco’s 2024 $ increase was +4.4%, down from +6.8% in 2023, radically less than +16.9% in 2022 and even 58% below their 10.4% 19>24 average. Average real growth was 7.1% (68%). They continue to open new stores and expand their internet offerings.
  • Target – After 6 consecutive annual sales increases, sales fell -1.6% in 2023, but turned slightly positive in 2024, +0.8%. Their growth peaked at +13.2% in 2021. Avg Growth: 6.7%; Real Growth: 3.5%, 52% real. They continue to open more supercenters. However, their key growth strategy is to expand the product mix in their discount stores, especially by adding more fresh groceries.
  • Meijer’s $ales continue to slow, +2.3%, down from 3.7% in 23, 5.6% in 22 and less than half of their avg of 4.9%. Their avg real growth is 1.7%, so only 35% is real.
  • BJ’s growth rose to 5.6%, up from +4.6% in 23, but down from +22.8% in 22. They are still the growth leader vs 2019, +71.5% in sales. Avg growth: +11.4%; Real: +8.0%, 70% real.
  • We should note that Costco ranks 2^nd in both comparisons vs 2019 and Sam’s Club is a significant share of Wal-Mart’s total sales. Mass Merchants are the biggest category and Club stores have moved to the retail forefront. Mass Merchant Avg growth: +7.8%; Real: +4.6%, 59% real.

• Office Supply Stores – This channel continues its consistent decline as Consumers maintain their move to online ordering of these products. Only Staples remains on the list. All Staples comparisons are negative, and their Avg Growth is: -3.0%; Real: -8.2%.
• Pet Stores growth in 24 was +2.2%, down from +6.0% in 23, +7.3% in 22 and a big drop from their 21 peak, +22.3%, but they are up +57.6% from 2019. Most of the growth in all measurements is coming from Chewy’s online sales. Pet Store Avg Growth: +9.5%; Real: +6.0%, 63%.
  • With the strong consumer movement to online purchasing, Chewy is still the big story in this channel. They have the most sales. Their 24 lift was +6.4%, down from +10.4% in 23, 13.6% in 22 and +24.4% in 21, but 129% of the Pet Store group’s 2024 $ increase. Their 93.2% sales increase vs 2019 is also 2.5 times that of the retail outlets. Avg Growth rate: +14.1%; Real: +10.4%. 74% of their big increase is real.
  • PetSmart’s 24 growth was only +0.1%, down from +2.0% in 23, +2.2% in 22 and radically below +23.1% in 21. Real Sales are -0.1% in 24 but actual sales are still up +35.3% from 2019. Their average growth rate is +6.2%. Real growth is +2.8%, 45%. The real % is far below Chewy’s, but not too bad.
  • Petco’s sales were -2.7% in 24, a big change from +3.7% in 23, +4.1% in 22 and +17.6% in 21. Their growth since 2019 is +36.7%, slightly ahead of PetSmart. Avg growth: +6.5%; Real: +3.0%, 46%. A big difference from PetSmart is that Petco has cut back on their retail stores.
• Small Format Value Stores – These stores offer value and convenience. Since Big Lots filed for bankruptcy and fell off the list, the group is now only $ Stores.
  • Group sales increased +4.1%, down from +4.7% in 23. Avg 19>23 Growth: +6.9%; Real: +2.9%, 42%.
  • Dollar General is larger and the growth leader, +4.9% in 24 and +46.2% from 2019. Avg Growth: +7.9%; Real: +4.6%, 58%. Dollar Tree was the growth leader in 23, +8.3%. In 24 they were +3.1% vs 23 and +33.9% vs 2019. Their Avg Growth is +6.0%; Real growth was +2.8%, 47%.
• Sporting Goods – 24 Sales: +0.5%, much better than -0.2% in 23 but far below +13.6% in 21. Camping World & Academy were again down vs last year, but all are up vs 19. Avg $ Growth: +5.4%; Real: +3.2%, 59%.
  • Dick’s has the best $ performance vs 23 (+4.1%) & 19 (+53.6%). Avg: 9.0%; Real: 6.7%, 68%.
  • Camping World Avg Growth: +4.6%; Real: +2.4%, 52%.; Academy Avg Growth: +3.2%; Real: +1.1%, 34%.
  • Bass Pro is all positive vs 23 & 19, but has the worst performance. Avg Growth: +2.4%; Real: +0.3%, 5%.
• Supermarkets – 1 drop out – Southeastern Grocers (acquisitions) and 1 addition – Grocery Outlet. They are still the biggest group with 24 companies. Avg Growth: +5.9%; Real: 1.0%, 17%.
  • 6 were down vs 23. 2 more were really down. Biggest Changes: Save-A-Lot, -7.3%; Aldi, +13.5% (acquisitions)
  • Vs 2019, only Save-A-Lot was actually down, but 8 more were really down – sold less product.
  • Sales continue to increase but you see the impact of cumulative inflation – only 17% of the 19>24 growth is real.
  • With $583B in sales and all stores carrying Pet Products, this group is definitely essential both to the Retail Market and the Pet Industry.

Wrapping it up!

This report is focused on 2024 but we can also see the continued evolution of the Retail Marketplace. In 2020 many non-essential retailers were hit with restrictions and closures. On the plus side, consumers turned their focus to essentials and their homes. This helped drive incredible growth in many retail channels.

In 2021 the Total Retail market moved into a full recovery with spectacular growth. Many channels showed a strong sales rebound from 2020. Others built upon their pandemic success while many returned to a more normal growth pattern. However, a few continued to decline. The Top 100 companies had participants in all of these patterns.

In 2022 we were hit by strong inflation in many categories which slowed both actual and real growth. Inflation slowed in 23 but we still see its cumulative impact in the reduced annual increases. Plus, sales of 36 retailers actually fell vs 2023.

The Top 100 is a contest with the winners changing slightly every year. It is a critical part of the U.S. Market, accounting for almost 60% of Relevant Retail Revenue and 36+% of Total Retail. Sales have increased annually but the Top 100’s share of Total Retail peaked in 2020 and in 2019 for Relevant Retail and steadily declined until 2024. The Top 10 has had stronger annual growth but sales in the #11>100 group actually fell in 2020 and their 19>24 increase is only 37% of the Top 10’s lift. We also must remember our new hero – Relevant Retail, not in the Top 100. The 19>24 Sales by these smaller guys are +57.5%, 32% more than the Top 10. Their performance slowed in 24 but it is still amazing.

Pet Products are an important part of the success of the Top 100. 88 companies (96.9% of $) sell Pet items in stores and/or online. The 74 companies that stock pet products in their stores generated $2.77T in total sales. How much was from pet? Let’s “Do the math”. If we take out the $25.5B done by Top 100 Pet stores and the remaining companies generated only 1.7% of their sales from Pet, we’re looking at $46.6B in Pet Products sales from 71 non-pet sources! (The 1.7% Pet share is based on the Economic Census.) If you add Pet Stores & Chewy into the $, Pet Products sales for the Top 100 are $72.1B. The APPA reported $99.1B in Pet Products sales for 24. That means 71 mass market retailers accounted for 47.0% of all the Pet Products sold in the U.S. and 74 Top 100 companies generated 72.8%. Pet Products are widespread in the retail market but the $ are concentrated. Pet Industry participants should monitor the Top 100.

Retail sales increases slowed in 2024 as cumulative inflation became a major factor. The situation is still evolving but the Top 100 will always be a critical part of U.S. Retail. I hope that this report helped put this group into a better perspective.

In August, the Commodities inflation CPI rose to 1.3% from 0.7% and Total Retail sales were +3.5% vs 24, -25.6% below their avg August Lift. The Relevant Retail CPI rose to 1.6% from 1.2% and sales were +3.7% vs 24, -21.1% below avg. There are other factors impacting sales, including high cumulative inflation and pre-tarifflation binge buying. It is a complex situation. Progress has slowed and the problem with YOY drops and the size of sales lifts is still very real.

We’ll continue to track the retail market with data from 2 reports provided by the Census Bureau and factor in a targeted CPI. The reports are the Monthly and the Advance Retail Sales Reports. Both are derived from sales data gathered from retailers across the U.S. and are published monthly at the same time. The Advance Report has a smaller sample size so it can be published quickly – about 2 weeks after month end. The Monthly Report includes data from all respondents, so it takes longer to compile the data – about 6 weeks. Although the sample size for the Advance report is smaller, the results over the years have proven it to be statistically accurate with the Monthly reports. The biggest difference is that the full sample in the Monthly report allows us to “drill” a little deeper into the retail channels.

We will begin with the July Monthly Report and then go to the August Advance Report. Our focus is comparing to last year but also 21 & 19. We’ll show both actual and the “real” change in sales as we factor inflation into the data.

Both reports include the following:

• Total Retail, Restaurants, Auto, Gas Stations and Relevant Retail (removing Restaurants, Auto and Gas)
• Individual Channel Data – This is more detailed in the Monthly reports, and we’ll focus on Pet Relevant Channels.

The data will be presented in detailed charts to facilitate visual comparison between groups/channels. The charts will show 11 separate measurements. To save space they will be displayed in a stacked bar format for the channel charts.

• Current Month change – % & $ vs previous month
• Current Month change – % & $ vs same month last year and vs 2021.
  • Current Month Real change vs last year and vs 2021 – % factoring in inflation
• Current Ytd change – % & $ for this year vs last year, 2021 & 2019.
  • Current Ytd Real change % for this year vs last year and vs 2021 and 2019
• Monthly & Ytd $ & CPIs for this year vs last year and vs 2021 which are targeted by channel will also be shown. (CPI Details are at the end of the report)

First, the July Monthly. All were up from June and there were only 2 actual YOY sales drops, Gas Stations vs 24. Note: They are now selling more product than in 2019. 3 groups are “all positive”, the same as March>June. Relevant Retail has been all positive in 16 of the last 20 months and in 12 of the last 14. ($ are Not Seasonally Adjusted)

The July Monthly is $0.8B more than the Advance report. Restaurants: +$0.6B; Auto: -$0.1B; Gas Stations: +$0.3B; Relevant Retail: No Chge. All were up from June. A Jun>Jul increase in Total Retail  has only happened in 55% of the years since 1992 and the 3.9% lift was 13 times more than the 0.3% average. There were only 2 YOY drops in actual sales, the same as Mar>Jun. There was only 1 “real” sales drop, 2 less than May/Jun and down radically from 4 in April and 5 in March. 3 groups were again “all positive” (Mar>Jul). Restaurants still have the biggest increases vs 21 & 19 but Relevant Retail stayed at the top of “real” performance vs 2019. However, only 53% of their growth is real.

Now, let’s see how some Key Pet Relevant channels did in July (83% of July Ytd Rel Retl $)

Overall– 6 of 11 were down from June. Vs Jul 24, 9 were actually and “really” up. Vs Jul 21, 9 were up but only 5 were real increases. Vs 2019, Only Dept Strs were actually & really down but Off/Gift/Souv were really down.

• Building Material Stores – The pandemic focus on home has produced sales growth of 29.8% since 2019. Prices for the Bldg/Matl group have inflated 19.7% from 21 and 23.1% from 2019 which is having an impact. Sales vs June were -0.1% for HomeCtr/Hdwe and -11.4% for Farm Stores. Vs other years, Farm stores are actually up for all, but Home Center/Hardware are only actually up vs Jul 21 & 2019. They are really down for all but vs 2019. Farm stores are only really down monthly & Ytd vs 21. Plus, only 18% of the Bldg Materials group’s 19>25 lift was real. Avg 19>25 Growth: HomeCtr/Hdwe: 4.1%, Real: 0.5%; Farm: 6.3%, Real: 2.7%
• Food & Drug – Both are essential. Except for the pandemic food binge buying, they tend to have smaller changes in $. Vs June: Supermarkets: +4.6%; Drug: +1.7%. In terms of inflation, Groceries are over 20 times higher than Drug/Med products. Drug Stores are positive in all measurements and 68% of their 2019>25 growth is real. Supermarkets’ actual $ are up in all comparisons. They are only “really” down monthly and Ytd vs 2021. However, only 9.3% of their 19>25 increase is real growth. Avg 19>25 Growth: Supermarkets: +4.9%, Real: +0.5%; Drug Stores: +5.5%, Real: +3.9%.
• Sporting Goods Stores – They also benefited from the pandemic in that consumers turned to self-entertainment, especially sports & outdoor activities. Sales are up 2.6% from June, but their only positives are vs Jul 24, 2019 & real Ytd vs 2024. Prices are still deflating, -1.3% vs 24. Deflation started in April 23 and is a big change from +1.1% in 22>23 and +7.9% in 21>22. This caused 68.5% of their 31.1% lift since 19 to be real. Avg 19>25 Growth Rate is: +4.6%; Real: +3.3%.
• Gen Mdse Stores – Sales were +0.9% vs June, but all YOY sales – actual & real were up for Club/SupCtrs and $ Stores. Department Stores are negative in all comparisons. Their Actual sales are even -29.9% from 19 (Real: -36.5%). The other channels have an average of 42.9% in real growth. Avg 19>25 Growth: SupCtr/Club: 5.1%, Real: 2.3%; $/Value Strs: +5.4%, Real: +2.6%; Dept. Strs: -5.7%, Real: -7.3%.
• Office, Gift & Souvenir Stores – Sales fell slightly from June, -0.7%, only -$0.02B. They are only really down monthly and Ytd vs 21 & 19. Their recovery started late, but their progress may be slowly restarting again. They have now been actually up vs 2019 for 2 consecutive months. Avg Growth Rate: +0.2%, Real: -1.4%
• Internet/Mail Order – Sales are +7.4% from June to $121.1B, the highest Jan>Oct monthly $ales ever. All measurements are positive, but their YOY growth, +7.1%, is only 49% of their average since 2019. However, 83.0% of their 126.3% growth since 2019 is real. Avg Growth: +14.6%, Real: +12.7%. As expected, they are by far the growth leader since 2019.
• A/O Miscellaneous – Pet Stores are 22>24% of total $. In May 2020 they began their recovery which reached $100B for the first time in 2021. In 2022 their sales dipped in Jan, Jul, Sep>Nov, rose in Dec, fell in Jan>Feb 23, grew Mar>May, fell Jun>Aug, rose Sep>Nov, fell Dec>Jan 24, grew Feb>May, fell Jun>Sep, grew Oct, fell Nov, rose Dec, fell Jan>Feb, grew Mar>May, then fell Jun>Jul. All comparisons are again positive, and they are in 2^nd place, behind the Internet, in the % increase vs 19 and vs 21. Also, 77% of their 71.5% growth since 2019 is real. Average 19>25 Growth: 9.4%, Real: +7.6%

July had a big lift vs June. All Big groups were up but 6 smaller channels were down in $. The YOY July lift was 5.6% below avg for Total but 1.5% above avg for Relevant Retl – much better. Prices are only deflating in 1 channel (the same as June) but cumulative inflation still impacts sales as only 5 channels were really up vs July 21. The Retail Recovery slowly continues. The July commodities CPI of 0.7% rose to 1.3% in August. Let’s see if it impacts Retail.

Jul>Aug sales were only up for 3. A Jul>Aug Total Retail lift has happened in 82% of the years since 1992 but the 0.1% gain is 97% less than the +2.2% avg change. There were 2 YOY $ drops, the same as Apr>Jul. $ for all Big Groups but Gas Stations were up vs Aug 24 but the Total Retail lift of 3.5% vs Aug 24 was 25.6% below their +4.7% 92>24 avg. The Relevant Retail 3.7% increase vs 24 was 21.1% below their +4.7% avg. Inflation is still a factor. The CPI for all commodities is only 1.3% but it is still 11.8% vs 21. There is also some good “real” news. No “real” measurement was down – 1 in July, 3 in May>Jun. Plus, Gas Stations are again “really” up vs 2019 and now 4 Big Groups are all positive, up from 3 in Mar>Jul. Relevant Retail has been all positive in 13 of the last 15 months.

Overall Inflation Reality– The Total Retail CPI rose to 1.3% and the $ lift vs 24 fell to 25.6% below avg. The Restaurant CPI stayed +3.9% but their $ lift was now 14%  above avg. Gas prices rose to -6.5% but they are still in turmoil. Auto inflation rose to 2.6% but it is only 4.9% vs 21. Auto sales grew 3.0% vs 24, 34.8% below avg – pre-tariff buying over. Inflation rose to 1.6% for Relevant Retail. Their lift was 21.1% below avg but they are again all positive. Progress slowed.

Total Retail – Since Jun 20, every month but Apr 23, Jun 24 & Feb 25 has set a monthly $ales record. In 2023>25, Sales were on a roller coaster. Up Jul>Aug, down Sep, up Oct>Dec, down Jan 24, up Feb>Mar, down April, up May, down Jun, up Jul>Aug, down Sep, up Oct>Dec, down Jan>Feb 25, up Mar, down Apr, up May, down Jun, up Jul>Aug. Prices are 1.3% and YOY sales are +3.5%, 25.6% below the 92>24 avg change of 4.7%. 42.2% of the 19>25 growth is real. Prices are still inflating, and cumulative inflation is still impacting sales. Growth: 24>25: 3.8%; Avg 19>25: +6.2%, Real: +2.8%.

Restaurants – They were hit hard by the pandemic and didn’t begin recovery until March 2021. However, they have had strong growth since then, exceeding $1T for the 1^st time in 2023. August $ are up vs 24 and they have the biggest lifts vs 21 & 19. Inflation stayed at 3.9% vs 24 but it is +24.1% vs 21 and +31.5% vs 19. Their 6.3% YOY lift is 14.1% above their +5.5% 92>24 avg. They are all positive again, but just 34.2% of their 57.1% growth since 2019 is real. They are 3^rd in performance behind Relevant & Total Retail. Recovery started late but inflation started early. Growth: 5.5%; Avg 19>25:+7.8%, Real: +3.0%. They just account for 13.8% of Total Retail $, but their strong growth has helped Total Retail.

Auto (Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers) – They overcame the stay-at-home attitude with great deals and advertising. They finished 2020 up 1% vs 2019 and hit a record $1.48T in 2021 but much of it was due to skyrocketing inflation. In 22, sales got on a rollercoaster. Inflation started to drop mid-year, but it caused 4 down months in actual $. Their YE real 2022 sales numbers were even worse, -8.2% vs 21 and -8.9% vs 19. 23 started a sales rollercoaster but the $ hit a record, $1.595T. $ fell in Jan 24, grew Feb>Mar, fell Apr, grew May, fell June, grew Jul>Aug, fell Sep, grew Oct, fell Nov, grew Dec, fell Jan>Feb 25, grew Mar, fell Apr>Jun, rose Jul>Aug. Aug $ were +3.0% vs 24. (34.8% below avg – pretariff buying over). They are now all positive, but just 24.9% of 19>25 growth is real. Growth: 4.7%; Avg 19>25: +5.3%, Real: +1.4%

Gas Stations – Gas Stations were hit hard by “stay at home”. They started recovery in Mar 21, and inflation began. Sales got on a rollercoaster in 22 but set a record, $583B. Inflation started to slow in Aug and prices slightly deflated in Dec & Feb 23, then strongly fell in Mar>Jul to -20.2%. In Aug they rose to -3.7%. In Sep they were +2.7% but began deflating to -4.2% in Feb 24. In Mar>May $ grew, fell Jun, rose July, fell Aug/Sep, rose Oct, fell Nov>Feb, rose Mar>May, fell Jun, rose Jul, fell Aug. Aug $ vs 24: -1.6% (4.9% avg) but up vs A/O years. Real $ are again all positive. Growth: -3.2%; Avg 19>25: +3.2%, Real: 0.04%. They show the cumulative impact of inflation and how deflation can be both positive & negative.

Relevant Retail – Less Auto, Gas and Restaurants – They account for ≈60% of Total Retail $ in a variety of channels, so they took many different paths through the pandemic. Their only down month until Feb 25 was April 2020, and they led the way in Total Retail’s recovery. Sales got on a roller coaster in 2022, but all months set new records with December reaching a new all-time high, $481B, and an annual record of $4.81T. In 2023, the roller coaster continued. A December lift set a new monthly record of $494.7B & an annual record of $4.997T. Sales fell Jan>Feb 24, rose Mar, fell Apr, rose in May, fell in June, rose Jul>Aug, fell Sep, rose Oct>Jan 25, fell Feb, rose Mar>May, fell Jun, rose Jul, fell Aug. The Aug 3.7% YOY lift is 21.1% below their 92>24 avg of +4.7%. They are all positive again and 53% of their 46.3% 19>25 growth is real, #1 in performance. Growth: 4.0%; Avg 19>25: +6.5%, Real: +3.7%. In 2024 their inflation rate dropped from 3.2% to 0.1%, stabilized at 0.5% Dec>Jan, rose to 0.7% in Mar, slowed to 0.6% in Apr, rose to 0.8% in May, 1.2% in Jun>Jul & 1.6% in Aug. Inflation is low, but its cumulative impact can slow growth. We’ll see what happens.

YOY inflation is low, but cumulative & impending lifts can affect sales. In Aug, 2 actual YOY $ comparisons were negative, the same as Mar>Jul. In Aug, there were no real drops – 1 in July, 3 in June. In July, Gas Stations were down vs 24, but all but Total had above avg lifts. In August, Gas Stations were again down, but only Restaurants had an above average lift. However, in August, 4 big groups were now all positive. Relevant Retail has now been all positive in 13 of the last 15 months. August sales rose vs July, but the lift size was much less than anticipated. The Retail recovery is slowing again.

Here’s a more detailed look at August by Key Channels (98% of August Ytd Rel Retl $)

• Relevant Retail: Growth: +4.1%; Avg 19>25: +6.5%, Real: +3.7%.6 of 11 were up from July. Vs Aug 24: 9 were up, Real: 9, Vs Aug 21: 9 were up, Real: 7. Vs 19: Only Dept Stores were down – both actually & really.
• All Department Stores – This group was struggling before the pandemic hit them hard. They began recovery in March 2021. Sales are +5.1% from July, but all actual & real YOY measurements are negative. Their -1.9% July YOY drop is much better than their -4.8% avg change. Growth: -2.7%; Avg 19>25: -5.9%, Real: -7.5%.
• Club/SuprCtr/$- They fueled a big part of the recovery because they focus on value which has broad consumer appeal. $ales are +4.0% from July, and they are positive in all measurements. However, only 42.3% of their 35.0% 19>25 lift is real. Their 1.9% YOY Aug lift is -77% below their 92>24 avg of +8.4%. Growth: 2.4%; Avg 19>25: +5.1%, Real: +2.3%.
• Grocery- They depend on frequent purchases, so their changes are usually less radical. Actual $ are -0.3% from July and positive in all actual comparisons. Cumulative inflation has hit them hard as real $ are down monthly & Ytd vs 21. Only 7% of 19>25 growth is real & their 3.0% YOY lift is 4.6% below avg. Growth: 2.9%; Avg 19>25: +4.8%, Real: +0.4%.
• Health/Drug Stores – Many stores are essential, but consumers visit less frequently than Grocery stores. $ are -0.2% from July but they are positive in all comparisons. Inflation has been relatively low so 67% of their 35.7% 19>25 growth is real. However, their +3.3% YOY lift vs Aug 24 is 37.3% below avg. Growth: 6.6%; Avg 19>25: +5.2%, Real: +3.6%
• Clothing and Accessories – Clothes mattered less if you stayed home. That changed in March 2021 with strong growth through 2022. Sales are +5.9% from July and positive in all measurements. 69% of their 19>25 growth is real. $ are +7.6% vs Aug 24, 1.5 times more than their Aug avg (pre-tariff buying). Growth: 4.8%; Avg 19>25: +3.3%, Real: +2.3%
• Home Furnishings – In mid-2020 consumers’ focus turned to their homes and furniture became a priority. Inflation has slowed to 2.6%. $ are +1.5% from July and are only really down monthly & Ytd vs 21. However, only 18% of their 19>25 growth is real. YOY vs Aug 24: +2.9%, 9% below avg – pre-tariff buying over. Growth: 5.4%; Avg 19>25:+2.8%, Real:+0.5%
• Electronic & Appliances – They have had many issues. Sales fell in Apr>May of 2020 and didn’t reach 2019 levels until March 21. $ are +1.1% from July but they are only actually up vs Aug 24 & 19. Strong deflation drove real numbers up, so all comparisons are positive. Sales are +2.6% vs Aug 24, 14% above avg. Growth: -0.6%; Avg 19>25: 0.6%, Real: +3.7%.
• Building Material, Farm & Garden & Hardware – They truly benefited from the consumers’ focus on home. In 2022 the lift slowed as inflation grew to double digits. Prices turned up in Apr>Aug 25 and sales are -7.0% from July. Actual $ are only up monthly & Ytd vs 21 and vs 2019. Real sales are down for all but vs 2019. Just 15.8% of their 19>25 sales growth is real. YOY sales vs Aug 24 were -5.7%. Avg. is +4.3%. Growth: -1.1%; Avg 19>25: +4.4%, Real: +0.8%.
• Sporting Goods, Hobby and Book Stores – Consumers turned their attention to recreation and Sporting Goods stores sales took off. Book & Hobby Stores recovered more slowly. They have been on a sales rollercoaster since June 24 and $ are +11.4% from July. Actual & real sales are now only down Ytd vs 21. 81% of their 19>25 growth is real. YOY Sales vs Aug 24 are +4.4%, 49% above avg. Growth: +0.5%; Avg 19>25: +3.9%, Real: +3.2%.
• All Miscellaneous Stores – Pet Stores have been a key part of the strong and growing recovery of this group. They finished 2020 at +0.9% but sales took off in March 21 and have continued to grow. Sales are -4.0% vs July but positive in all comparisons. They are 2^nd in the % increases vs 19 & vs 21 and 71.7% of their 51.3% 19>25 growth is real. Plus, their 6.8% YOY Aug lift is 63% more than their 92>24 avg of +4.2%. Growth: +8.4%; Avg 19>25: +7.1%, Real: 5.4%.
• NonStore Retailers – 90% of their $ comes from Internet/Mail Order/TV. The pandemic accelerated online spending. They ended 2020 +21.4%. The growth continued in 2021 as sales exceeded $100B for the 1^st time and they broke the $1 Trillion barrier. $ are -3.5% from July and their YOY lift of 8.2% is -21% below the 10.3% avg. However, they are positive in all comparisons and 82% of their 114.3% 19>25 growth is real. Growth: 6.9%; Avg 19>25: +13.5%, Real: +11.6%.

Recap – Driven by Relevant Retail, the Pandemic recovery was widespread by Y/E 2021. In 2022 we were hit with the strongest inflation in 40 years. Overall inflation has slowed considerably from its Jun 22 peak but again only 3 channels are deflating, down from 5 in May. Deflation helps, but cumulative inflation can still have a negative impact – slowed YOY growth and even sales drops. $ only rose from July for 6 of 11 channels. 5 of the 6 lifts were below avg and Relevant Retail was -0.6% vs a +2.9% avg. The biggest concern is still YOY drops and smaller lifts. Relevant Retail’s 3.7% lift vs Aug 24 was 21.1% below avg. 2 channels had a YOY drop vs Aug 24, 1 less than July but 1 more than June. 9 channels had YOY lifts, up 1 from July but down 1 from June. However, only 4 of the 9 lifts were above avg, down from 5 in July. Here is some good news. In Mar>Jul 3 Big Groups were all positive. That grew to 4 in Aug. In July, 5 smaller channels were also all positive, up from 4 in June. That stayed the same in August. Relevant Retail has now been all positive in 13 of the last 15 months. The situation is definitely mixed and still concerning as the progress is slowing.

Finally, here are the details and updated inflation rates for the CPIs used to calculate the impact of inflation on retail groups and channels. This includes special aggregate CPIs created with the instruction and guidance of personnel from the US BLS. I also researched data from the last Economic Census to review the share of sales by product category for the various channels to help in selecting what expenditures to include in specific aggregates. Of course, none of these specially created aggregates are 100% accurate but they are much closer than the overall CPI or available aggregates. The data also includes the CPI changes vs 2021 to show cumulative inflation.

Monthly YOY CPI changes of 0.2% or more are highlighted. (Green = lower; Pink = higher)

Here are some answers to some obvious questions. Note: All Relative Retail but Furniture, Drugs & Sporting Goods increased prices.

1. Why is the group for Nonstore different from the Internet?
   • Non-store is not all internet. It also includes Fuel Oil Dealers, the non-motor fuel Energy Commodity.
2. Why is there no Food at home included in Nonstore or Internet?
   • Online Grocery purchasing is becoming popular, but almost all is from companies whose major business is brick ‘n mortar. These online sales are recorded under their primary channel.
3. 5 Channels have the same CPI aggregate but represent a variety of business types.
   • They also have a wide range of product types. Rather than try to build aggregates of a multitude of small expenditure categories, it seemed better to eliminate the biggest, influential groups that they don’t sell. This method is not perfect, but it is certainly closer than any existing aggregate.
4. Why are Grocery and Supermarkets only tied to the Grocery CPI?
   • According to the Economic Census, 76% of their sales comes from Grocery products. Grocery Products are the driver. The balance of their sales comes from a collection of a multitude of categories.
5. What about Drug/Health Stores only being tied to Medical Commodities.
   • An answer similar to the one for Grocery/Supermarkets. However, in this case Medical Commodities account for over 80% of these stores’ total sales.
6. Why do SuperCtrs/Clubs and $ Stores have the same CPI?
   • Big Stores sell more fresh groceries, Groceries account for ¼ of $ Store sales. Same Ctgys – different mix.

Inflation seems simple – just compare this year’s prices to the same time last year. In fact, it is more complex. The most important thing to remember is that it is cumulative so even when the YOY rate slows, it can cause a range of issues – selling less product and even a drop in $. One impact that is often ignored is slowed $ growth. That is the focus of this report. To give a better view of the situation we will include charts covering Jan>Jul 25 for the Big Groups and the “Advance” Relevant Retail Channels. We will include separate charts for Monthly & Ytd data to better show trends.

First the Jan>Jul Monthly Report for Big Groups (100% of U.S. Retail $)

We also included the Y/E numbers for 2024, both actual & average, to show our 1^st goal – Beat these lifts!

Jan is arguably the best month, but Feb is definitely the worst. It is often the low point of the Retail year. In 25, the lift vs 24 was -78% below avg for Relevant Retail, but Total and all other groups had drops. A new positive is July. Gas Stations had their smallest monthly drop in 25, but all other groups had lifts, 3 above avg. April is still the best month of this period, with 1 drop but 4 above avg lifts, including Total. In May>Jun, the situation worsened. Still 1 drop, but only 1 above avg lift. June was a better than May, but the big improvement was in July, although the Total lift is still below avg.

Restaurants – The February drop was small and the Mar>May lifts were above avg. They peaked at 7.6% in May, 36.% above avg. Things worsened in June as their lift slowed to -1.0% below avg. July rebounded to +5.9%, 6.3% above avg.

Auto – Until May>Jun, their pattern was the same as Restaurants but with bigger changes, especially in Mar/Apr. The Mar/Apr lifts were basically double the avg. The 25% tariff was effective 4/3/25. Consumers saved thousands of dollars, but the binge buy ended in May, -59.7% below avg. Sales did bounce back in Jun/Jul, 14>27% above avg.

Gas Stations – They are definitely in turmoil. Sales fell Feb>Jul and until the -2.7% drop in July, all were bigger than 2024.

Relevant Retail – They do about 60% of Total Retail $. They have a similar pattern but now with 2 differences. The biggest is that they were +1% in Feb – no drop. #2 was in July. Their lift was 1.7% above avg while Total was -7.8% below avg. The Feb/Mar & May/Jun lifts were below avg while the Jan, Apr & Jul lifts were above avg. Their 23>24 lift was above Total Retail. In May & now July their lifts were much better than Total. Their progress continues.

Total Retail – They had a small drop in February, but March was basically equal to the avg. Jan & Apr were the only above avg months. All non-Feb months had lifts above the 3.0% 23>24 Y/E increase but the May lift was only +3.1%, -33.9% below avg. The situation improved in Jun>Jul, but the July lift is still -7.8% below avg.

 7 MONTHS JAN>JUL SUMMARY: $↓: 9; ↑Avg: 15; ↓Avg: 11

Jan: $↓: 0; ↑Avg: 4; ↓Avg: 1; Feb: $↓: 4; ↑Avg: 0; ↓Avg: 1; Mar: $↓: 1; ↑Avg: 2; ↓Avg: 2; Apr: $↓: 1; ↑Avg: 4; ↓Avg: 0;

                          May: $↓: 1; ↑Avg: 1; ↓Avg: 3; Jun: $↓: 1; ↑Avg: 1; ↓Avg: 3; Jul: $↓: 1; ↑Avg: 3; ↓Avg: 1;                               

Now let’s take a closer look at Relevant Retail. We will report on the 11 channels in our Advance report.

11 Relevant Retail Channels (98% of Ytd Rel Rtl $)

Relevant Retail – Their +3.6% lift in 24 was -22.8% below average. No drops in 25. The lifts for February, March, May & June were below average, but Jan, April & July were above average. The July lift is +4.8%, 1.7% above avg.

Furniture – No drops. Lifts were double the average in January, March & April but still big in May>Jul. The huge lifts in Mar>Jul were probably due to fear of skyrocketing prices from impending tariffs.

Electronics/Appliances – They have ongoing high deflation. $ Drops in both January & February. Sales turned positive in Mar, dropped in Apr>May, returned to positive, +0.7% in Jun, then dropped -1.7% in July. The 2 lifts were both below avg.

Bldg Matl/Garden/Farm – They had the smallest of the 4 drops in 23>24, -0.6%, but the 3rd biggest decrease (of 6) in Feb, -6.1%. They had lifts in Jan, Mar, Apr & Jun but all were below avg. The Jan, Apr & Jun increases were over 70% below avg. May (-2.8%) & July (-1.5%) brought 2 more drops but Feb was still the biggest of the year.

Grocery – Sales were only +2.0% in 24, -36% below average but they surged in Jan, 63% above avg. Growth slowed to 1% or less in Feb>Mar, 70+% below avg. They had a strong rebound in Apr. Sales were +5.8%, 93% above avg. The lifts slowed markedly in May>Jun, but increased in July to +3.4%, 10.6% above avg.

Health/Drug – Sales were +3.6% in 24, -31% below avg. The lifts grew to 4+% in Jan/Feb, surged in Mar/Apr to +8.9%, 75+% above avg, then slowed to +7.3% in May. In June, $ were +11.1%, 123% above avg. July was +5.4%, 3% above avg.

Clothing – 24 $: +2.5%, -19% below avg. A strong start to 25, but Sales fell -2.4% in Feb. However, the Mar lift was 1% above avg, then Sales “took off” in Apr to +6.9%, more than double the avg lift. The strong lift continued in May, +5.3%, 60% above avg. The binge buying ended in Jun as the lift slowed to +2.9%, but resumed in July, +7.4%, 127% above avg.

Sport/Hobby/Book – They were -2.8% in 24. This trend continued and hit bottom at -6.4% in Feb. In Mar>May they turned slightly positive, peaking at +2.0% in May, -39% below avg. June fell -1.1%, but July rose to +2.3%, 27% below avg.

Department Strs – It’s difficult to find something positive. They were -4.6% in 24 and had drops Jan>Jul in 25. The biggest drop was -5.9% in Feb and the smallest was -0.2% in July. Sort of good news: 5 of 7 drops in 25 were less than avg.

Clubs/SupCtrs/Value/$ – They offer value & convenience – 1 stop shopping. They have had strong growth from the start. COVID accelerated growth so it is no surprise that all lifts are below avg. They even had small <-0.3% drops in Feb/Mar. April improved to +5.3% but sales slowed to +3.5% in May and +1.4% in Jun. July rebounded to +3.3%, -61% below avg.

Miscellaneous – Pet Stores account for 15+% of this group’s sales. They had 2 below avg lifts, Feb & Apr. The Jan & Mar lifts were 80+% above avg and the May>Jul lifts were more than double the avg. They have the 2^nd best performance of any channel, behind Furniture Stores, and they achieved it without the benefit of a pre-tarifflation buying surge.

Nonstore – 90% of $ are from internet/mail order (vast majority is internet). The Internet has had strong sales growth since its inception, but it skyrocketed due to COVID’s “stay at home” behavior. They have an avg lift of about 10%. Their 24 lift was +8.1%. From Jan>Jun, all lifts in 25 were below this and below average – no surprise. That partially changed with the +8.3% lift in July but it was still -20.9% below avg.            Low: Feb +5.0%; High: Jul +8.3%

SUMMARY

23>24: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 6; ↑Avg: 1

7 MONTHS JAN>JUL: $↓: 21; ↓Avg: 32; ↑Avg: 24

Jan: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 4; Feb: $↓: 6; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 0; Mar: $↓: 2; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 4; Apr: $↓: 2; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 4;

                          May: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 4; Jun: $↓: 2; ↓Avg: 6; ↑Avg: 3; Jul: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 5;

In the above Summary, regarding Drops and Above Average lifts, a green number indicates the best and a red number is the worst. The best months are Mar, Apr & Jul. The worst is Feb. However, the biggest positive change occurred in March. 4 channels with drops turned positive. 3 became below average and 1 above average. 3 with below average lifts moved up to above average. The classification of 4 were unchanged so 7 fueled the improvement. April was the same as Mar. May was worse than April due to 3 drops. In Jun, Drops fell to 2 but above avg fell to 3. Note: 4+ has become the norm in above avg lifts. We can’t forget January. The number of positive lifts vs Y/E 24 moved up from 7 to 8 but the number with above avg lifts rose from 1 to 4 – a big change. Even with 6 drops/below avg lifts, the situation in July has greatly improved from 11 in Feb. The overall July CPI is low and stable from June, and 5 lifts are above avg, but the channels still had mixed performances.

Now let’s take a different view of the data from the Big Groups and the same 11 channels. Rather than monthly sales, we  will look at Ytd numbers. We will still view them monthly so we can see any trends.

The Ytd numbers are arguably the most important. In December, they become Year-End, which is the most quoted and remembered data in any year. While the monthly data shows what’s happening in the marketplace right now, the Ytd data consolidates the data. This blending extends the impact of big sales spikes – positive or negative. This can be either good or bad. The impact of the big drop in February 25 was lessened by the widespread Above Average January lift. It can also work the other way. The big February drop reduced the positivity of stronger lifts in Mar>Jul. Overall, progress stalled in May/June, then restarted in July. We’ll begin our analysis with the Big Retail Groups.

You notice that the spending patterns for Relevant & Total Retl are almost identical. Jan was good for all – 5 lifts, 4 above avg. Feb was bad. Gas Station $ dropped while the others had their most Below Avg lift. In Mar>Jul, only Auto had Above Avg lifts and only Gas Stations had any drops. Restaurants steadily improved but the others’ progress paused in May>Jul.

Restaurants – Sales for 24 were +5.2%, -7% below average. They flipped to above avg in Jan, then the lift radically slowed in Feb to +2.4%, -57% below avg. The situation steadily improved in Mar>May, then the progress slowed in Jun>Jul. Their YOY lift essentially stabilized at about +5%, -6>10% below avg for May>Jul. They did beat 24’s +5.18% with +5.22% in July.

Auto – Sales were +2.3% in 24, -47% below avg and the worst “positive” performance of any group. They turned it around in Jan with an above avg lift. The lift dropped to +2.0% in Feb, -56% below avg and the smallest lift of any positive big group. Their pre-tarifflation buying lift started in Mar/Apr, peaking at +5.9% in April, 33% above avg. In May>Jul the surge slowed, and the lift fell to ≈5%. They are the only Group with Mar>Jul above avg lifts.

Gas Stations – Whether you look at the data monthly or Ytd, they are doing bad. The Apr>Jul Ytd sales drops of over -3.4% are significantly worse than the -2.9% at Y/E 24. That does not bode well for 2025.

Relevant Retail – Except for Jan, +5.0% and now July, +4.1%, their YOY lift was stuck in the 3% range. Thanks to an Above avg monthly  lift, April Ytd, +3.9%, did finally exceed the +3.6% of 2024. The lift stayed at about +3.9% in May>Jun, -16% to -18% below the Ytd avg. A strong, +4.8% July lift restarted their Ytd progress to +4.1%, only -14% below avg.

Total Retail – The pattern matches Relevant Retail but the YOY changes for all, but Jan & Mar are smaller. With similar avgs, Total has bigger disparities. Total includes Auto & Gas Stations which have had extreme lifts & drops. Their Mar>Apr progress also paused in May>Jun and increased slightly in July, but their Ytd YOY lift has been above 24 from Mar>Jul.

                                                             Summary and Comparison of Jan>Jul Monthly to Ytd

                                                        Monthly: Drops: 9; Below Avg Lifts: 11; Above Avg Lifts: 15

                                                                 Ytd: Drops: 6; Below Avg Lifts: 20; Above Avg Lifts:  9

Mon: Jan: $↓: 0; ↓Avg: 1; ↑Avg: 4; Feb: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 1; ↑Avg: 0; Mar: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 2; ↑Avg: 2; Apr: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 0; ↑Avg: 4;

Ytd:   Jan: $↓: 0; ↓Avg: 1; ↑Avg: 4; Feb: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 0; Mar: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1; Apr: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1;

Mon: May: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1; Jun: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1; Jul: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 1; ↑Avg: 3

Ytd:   May: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1; Jun: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1; Jul: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1

The Ytd report levels the Feb>Jul data. You can see this in the orange numbers in the February Drops and the March, April & July Above Average Lifts. The Ytd situation isn’t good but it’s better than 24 for all but Gas Stations. Monthly, the Big Groups were stable May>Jun then improved in July. In Ytd data, Mar>Jul was stable.

Now, Let’s look at Ytd Sales for Key Relevant Retail Channels

The Ytd chart looks a little more consistent than the Monthly chart. This is true. Ytd extends the impact of big lifts or drops. The Ytd version has 22% less Below Avg lifts (middle ground), but 24% more Drops and 8% more Above Avg lifts. The result is balance. Ytd also has 3 channels that had drops every month in 2025. Monthly has only 1. However, Ytd has 2 channels with Above Average lifts every month. Monthly has none. It’s a complex situation. Let’s get into the specifics.

Furniture Stores – They are going strong. Their huge January lift pushed the February Ytd lift from below to above avg. Now, all months are above average. Tarifflation fear caused binge buying in Mar>Jul so the current lift is still huge.

Electronics/Appliance – Ytd they are all negative. This version hides the small Mar & June lifts. The positive impact in the Ytd chart was that their YOY drop slowed from -5.0% in February to -1.6% in Jun/Jul

Bldg Matl/Garden/Farm – Their big February drop turned March from a below average monthly lift to a -0.4% Ytd drop. In a reversal, Mar/Apr lifts made Ytd April slightly positive, +0.1%. Sales fell in May & Jul so Ytd May>Jul was negative.

Grocery – Their big Jan lift made  their Ytd situation look much better. However, Ytd essentially hid the huge above average lift in April and smaller one in July. Note: Ytd they have been above 24 Y/E in every 2025 month.

Health – Monthly & Ytd have a similar pattern – Jan/Feb, below avg; Mar>Jul, above avg. The June lift was huge, more than double the avg. The July lift was small, but Ytd is still 40% above avg and 97% better than 2024.

Clothing – Their big Jan lift eliminated the Feb drop in Ytd, but the Feb drop changed Mar from above to below average in Ytd. Huge lifts in Apr & Jul kept Ytd above avg and above 24 from Apr>Jul.

Sport/Hobby/Book – They had drops in Jan>Feb. Feb was -6.4%. This turned Ytd all negative. Mar>May had increasing monthly lifts. June $ dropped but July was +2.3%, the biggest lift in 25. Ytd is -0.4%, much better than -2.8% in 24.

Department Strs – Both reports show drops every month, but Ytd is better than 24. Their fade continues.

Club/SupCtr/Value/$ – They offer value and convenience, the biggest shopping drivers. Some $ stores are struggling but SuperCenters/Clubs are still going pretty strong. Besides the internet, one problem in sustaining strong growth is that they are running out of new customers. The Monthly report had a -0.2% drop in February and a -0.3% drop in March. The Ytd numbers look better. There are no drops, but the July Ytd lift is only +2.6%, 69% below avg and 10% below 24.

Miscellaneous – This is probably our favorite channel because it includes pet stores. They also have great performance. In the Monthly report, only the YOY lifts for Feb & Apr are below avg. All others are above avg. The Ytd report is even better. All months are above avg and July is +8.2%, 91% above average and 52% more than Y/E 24.

Nonstore – They are driven by the internet which has had the strongest growth and became the biggest $ channel in 2020. The Monthly & Ytd reports have similar patterns – all months below avg. July Ytd is +6.7%. That sounds great but it is -33% below avg & -17% less than 24. It is difficult, if not impossible to maintain double digit growth…forever.

Relevant Retail – They had no drops and 3 above avg monthly lifts – only 1 (Jan) in Ytd. Ytd shows Mar>Apr growth, a May>Jun pause and a small lift in July. The group’s Ytd performance in Apr>Jul exceeds +3.6% in 24 and July is +4.1%, only -14% below avg. Here is a summary and comparison of Jan>Jul Monthly to Ytd for the 11 channels.

                                                       Monthly: Drops: 21; Below Avg Lifts: 32; Above Avg Lifts: 24

                                                                 Ytd: Drops: 26; Below Avg Lifts: 25; Above Avg Lifts: 26

Mon: Jan: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 4; Feb: $↓: 6; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 0; Mar: $↓: 2; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 4; Apr: $↓: 2; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 4

Ytd:   Jan: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 4; Feb: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 2; Mar: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 3; Apr: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 5

Mon: May: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 4; Jun: $↓: 2; ↓Avg: 6; ↑Avg: 3; Jul: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 5

Ytd:   May: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 4; Jun: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 4; Jul: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 4 

The key differences between the Monthly & Ytd reports are in the lingering Ytd impact of big drops and lifts. Both views are critically important. Monthly shows what is currently happening in the marketplace and Ytd puts it into perspective. They also show trends over time. Ytd provides an overview while Monthly shows the details fueling the movement.

Inflation negatively affects retail growth both in the short term, with spikes or drops, and in the long term, with cumulative high prices. It can even have an impact before it happens. We saw this with pre-tarifflation “fear” buying. The current retail situation is not good. The YOY lifts vs 24 are generally below the long term avg for most channels. Retail “hit bottom” in Feb but most channels (not Gas Stations or Dept stores) showed improvement in Mar/Apr. The monthly situation worsened in May/Jun, then improved in July. Ytd it is stable & better than 24. Inflation is low, but prices are still high. We’ll see if tariffs have a noticeable impact.

Finally, for your reference, here are the June and July inflation rates for the CPIs of the retail groups and channels in this report. This includes special aggregate CPIs created with the instruction and guidance of personnel from the US BLS. I also researched data from the last Economic Census to review the share of sales by product category for the various channels to help in selecting what expenditures to include in specific aggregates. Of course, none of these specially created aggregates are 100% accurate but they are much closer than the overall CPI or available aggregates. The data also includes the CPI changes vs 2021 to show cumulative inflation. The chart shows both monthly and Ytd inflation so it can be used as a reference for both measurements in the sales growth report.

Monthly YOY CPI changes of 0.2% or more are highlighted. (Green = lower; Pink = higher)

• In the Big Groups, Relevant Retail inflation was unchanged. Gas prices went down. All others got worse.
• The monthly inflation also worsened for 8 of 11 smaller channels
  • The biggest change was again Furnishings. They jumped from 3.4% to 5.2%.
  • There were no flips from deflation to inflation or vice versa.
  • For 2 channels, the worsening was just a slower deflation rate
• The 3 smaller channels with improved inflation were:
  • Health/Drug (+0.2% to +0.1%)
  • Grocery (+2.4% to +2.2%)
  • Electronics/Appliances (-2.8% to -3.6%)
• Cumulative inflation vs 2021 is still high & stable for most channels, especially Ytd