Petflation 2025 – September Update: Jumps up to +3.5% vs Last Year

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The monthly Consumer Price Index peaked back in June 2022 at 9.1% then began to slow until it turned up in Jul/Aug 2023. Prices fell in Oct>Dec 23, then turned up Jan>Oct 24 but fell -0.1% in Nov. However, they have now risen for 10 straight months, including a 0.3% lift in September to a new record high. The CPI vs 24 also increased to +3.0% from +2.9% in August. Grocery prices rose 0.5% from August but their YOY inflation stayed at 2.7%, still the highest rate since 3.0% in August 23. Even minor price changes can affect consumer pet spending, especially in the discretionary pet segments, so we will continue to publish monthly reports to track petflation as it evolves in the market.

Petflation was +4.1% in Dec 21 while the overall CPI was +7.0%. The gap narrowed as Petflation accelerated. It was 96.7% of the national rate in June 22. National inflation has slowed considerably, but Petflation generally increased until June 23. It passed the CPI in July 22 but fell below it from Apr>Jul 24. It exceeded the CPI in Aug, fell below in Sep>Oct, rose above in Nov, fell below in Dec>Aug 25, then passed it in Sep. As we drill into the data, all reports will include:

  • A rolling 24 month tracking of the CPI for all pet segments and the national CPI. The base number will be pre-pandemic December 2019 in this and future reports, which will facilitate comparisons.
  • Monthly comparisons of 25 vs 24 which will include Pet Segments and relevant Human spending categories. Plus
    1. CPI change from the previous month.
    2. Inflation changes for recent years (23>24, 22>23, 21>22, 20>21, 19>20, 18>19)
    3. Total Inflation for the current month in 2025 vs 2019 and vs 2021 to see the full inflation surge.
    4. Average annual Year Over Year inflation rate from 2019 to 2025
  • YTD comparisons
    1. YTD numbers for the monthly comparisons #2>4 above

In our first graph we will track the monthly change in prices for the 24 months from Sep 23 to Sep 25. We will use December 2019 as a base number so we can track the progress from pre-pandemic times through an eventual recovery. This chart is designed to give you a visual image of the flow of pricing. You can see the similarities and differences in segment patterns and compare them to the overall U.S. CPI. The year-end numbers from 2023 and 2024 are included. We also included and highlighted (pink) the cumulative price peak for each segment. In Sep, Pet prices rose +0.7% from Aug. Services were down -0.2%. Food was stable (+0.005%). Supplies (+1.0%) & Vet (+1.4%) were both up.

In Sep 23, the CPI was +19.8% and Pet was +21.1%. The Services segments inflated after mid-20, while Product inflation stayed low until late 21. In 22, Food prices grew but the others had mixed patterns until July 22, when all rose. In Aug>Oct Petflation took off. In Nov>Dec, Services & Food inflated while Vet & Supplies prices stabilized. In Jan>Apr 23, prices grew every month for all segments except for 1 Supplies dip. In May Product prices grew while Services slowed. In Jun/Jul this reversed. In Aug all but Services fell. In Sep/Oct this flipped. In Nov, all but Food & Vet fell. In Dec, Supp. & Vet  drove prices up. In Jan>Mar 24 prices grew. In April, prices in all but Vet fell. In May, all but Food grew. In June, Products drove a lift. In July, all but Services fell. In Aug, Food drove a drop. In Sep, Products fueled a drop. Services drove a lift in Oct. In Nov, all were up. Prices dropped in March 25, but all but Food have set records since May.

  • U.S. CPI – The inflation rate was below 2% through 2020. It turned up in January 21 and continued to grow until flattening out in Jul>Dec 22. Prices rose Jan>Sep 23, fell Oct>Dec, rose Jan>Oct 24, fell Nov, then rose Dec>Sep 25 to a record high but 25.8% of the increase since Dec 19 happened from Jan>Jun 22 – 8.7% of the time.
  • Pet Food – Prices were at the Dec 19 level Apr 20>Sep 21. They grew & peaked May 23, then got on a roller coaster. The ride continues in 25 – Jan>Feb↑, Mar>May↓, Jun>Jul↑, Aug↓, Sep↔. 99% of the lift was in 22/23.
  • Pet Supplies – Supplies prices were high in Dec 19 due to tariffs. They had a deflated roller coaster ride until mid-21 when they returned to Dec 19 prices & essentially stayed there until 22. They turned up in Jan and hit a record high. They plateaued Feb>May, grew in June, flattened in July, then turned up in Aug>Oct to a new record. Prices stabilized Nov>Dec, but grew Jan>Feb 23. They fell in Mar, but the roller coaster went on. Dec>Feb 24↑, Mar/Apr↓, May/Jun↑, July↓, Aug↑, Sep/Oct↓, Nov/Dec↑, Jan>Feb 25↓, Mar>May↑(record), Jun↓, Jul↑, Aug↓, Sep↑.
  • Pet Services– Inflation is usually 2+%. Perhaps due to closures, prices increased at a lower rate in 2020. In 2021 consumer demand increased but with fewer outlets. Inflation grew in 21 with the biggest lift in Jan>Apr. Inflation was strong in 22 but prices got on a roller coaster in Mar>Jun. They turned up Jul>Apr 23 but prices fell in May. Jun>Aug↑, Sep>Dec↓, Jan>Mar 24↑, Apr↓, May↑, Jun↓, Jul>Nov↑, Dec>Mar 25↓, Apr>Aug↑(record), Sep↓
  • Veterinary – Inflation has been consistent. Prices turned up in Mar 20 and grew through 21. A surge began in Dec 21 which put them above the overall CPI. In May 22 prices fell and stabilized in June causing them to fall below the CPI. However, they rose again & despite some dips have been above the CPI since July 22. In 23>25 prices grew Jan>May, level Jun/Jul, fell Aug, grew Sep>Dec, fell Jan, grew Feb>May, fell Jun>Jul, grew Aug 24>Sep 25.
  • Total Pet – Petflation is a sum of the segments. In Dec 21 the price surge began. In Mar>Jun 22 the segments had ups & downs, but Petflation grew from Jul>Nov. It slowed in Dec, grew Jan>May 23, fell Jun>Aug, grew Sep/Oct, then fell in Nov. In December prices turned up and grew through Mar 24 to a record high. Prices fell in April, rose May>Jun, fell Jul>Sep, rose Oct>Nov, fell Dec, rose Jan>Feb 25, fell Mar, set records in Apr>Jul, fell Aug, rose Sep.

Next, we’ll turn our attention to the Year Over Year inflation rate change for September and compare it to last month, last year and to previous years. We will also show total inflation from 21>25 & 19>25. Petflation rose sharply from 2.5% to 3.5% and it is now 16.7% above the National inflation rate. The chart will allow you to compare the inflation rates of 24>25 to 23>24 and other years but also see how much of the total inflation since 2019 came from the current pricing surge. We’ve included some human categories to put the pet numbers into perspective.

Overall, prices were up 0.3% from Aug and were +3.0% vs Sep 24, up from +2.9% last month. Grocery prices rose but the CPI stayed at 2.7%. Only 1 category had a price decrease from last month, down from 3 in August. There were 2 drops in Apr/Oct/Nov but 3 in Aug/Sep/Dec/Mar and 5 back in July 24. The national YOY monthly CPI rate of 3.0% is 25% above 23>24, but 19% below 22>23 and 63% less than 21>22. The 24>25 rate is only below 23>24 for Pet Services, Pet Supplies & Haircuts. In our 2021>2025 measurement you also can see that over 75% of the cumulative inflation since 2019 has occurred in 4 segments, all Pet – all but Services (73.2%). Except for Pet & Vet Services, where prices have surged, Service Segments have generally had higher inflation rates so there was a smaller pricing lift in the recent surge. Pet Products have a very different pattern. The 21>25 inflation surge provided 93% of their overall inflation since 2019. This happened because Pet Products prices in 2021 were starting to recover from a deflationary period. Services expenditures account for 63.8% of the National CPI so they are very influential. Their current CPI is +3.6% while the CPI for Commodities is 1.9%. This shows that Services are driving most of the current 3.0% inflation, but Commodities did drive the small September increase. There is an even greater disparity in Pet, but products have a bigger share of $. Petflation is 3.5%. The combined CPI for the Service Segments is 6.9%, while the Pet Products CPI is 0.9%.

  • U.S. CPI– Prices are +0.3% from July. The YOY rate rose to 3.0% from 2.9%. It peaked at +9.1% back in June 2022. The targeted inflation rate is <2% so we are 50+% higher than the target. The Apr>Sep lifts follow Feb/Mar drops, 4 straight lifts and 6 consecutive drops from Apr>Sep 24. The current rate is above 23>24 and the 21>25 rate is still +18.4%, 69.4% of the total inflation since 2019. The Inflation surge took off in April 2021, +4.2%, up from 2.6%.
  • Pet Food– Prices are +0.003% vs August but +0.5% vs Sep 24. Prices have inflated for 3 straight months, but they are still far below the Food at Home inflation rate of +2.7%. The YOY Pet Food CPI has deflated in 15 of the last 19 months. The 2021>2025 inflation surge has generated 96.1% of the 23.0% inflation since 2019. Inflation began for Pet Food in June 2021, +0.9%, after 12 straight deflationary months.
  • Food at Home – Prices are +0.5% from August but the YOY increase stayed at 2.7%. This is still radically lower than Jul>Sep 2022 when it exceeded 13%. The 30.8% Inflation for this category since 2019 is 16% more than the national CPI but only in 4th place behind 3 Services expenditures (2 Pet). 65.9% of the inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25. This is close to the national CPI rate, but we should note that Grocery prices began inflating in 2020>21 then the rate accelerated. It appears that the pandemic supply chain issues in Food which contributed to higher prices started early and foreshadowed problems in other categories and the overall CPI surge.
  • Pets & Supplies– Prices were +1.0% from Aug and the CPI rose to 1.5% from +0.0%. They still have the lowest rate vs 2019. Prices were deflated for much of 20>21. As a result, the 21>25 inflation surge accounted for 90% of the total price increase since 2019. Prices deflated after Oct 22. 3 lifts pushed them to a record high in Feb 23. Prices fell March, rose Apr/May, fell Jun>Aug, grew Sep/Oct, fell Nov, grew Dec>Feb 24, fell Mar/Apr, rose May/Jun, fell July, rose Aug, fell Sep/Oct, rose Nov/Dec, fell Jan/Feb 25, rose Mar>May (record), fell Jun, rose Jul, fell Aug, then rose in Sep.
  • Veterinary Services– Prices are +1.4% from Aug and their YOY CPI vs 24 rose to +7.8% from +6.4%. They remain #1 in inflation vs 24 and are still the leader since 2019 with +48.2% and since 2021, +38.2%. For Veterinary, high annual inflation is the norm. However, the rate has increased during the current surge, especially since 23. They have the highest rate in 25, and 79% of the cumulative inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25.
  • Medical Services – Prices turned sharply up at the start of the pandemic but then inflation slowed and fell to a low rate in 20>21. Prices were up +0.2% from Aug, but inflation vs 24 slowed to +3.9% from +4.2%. Medical Services are not a big part of the current surge as only 63.7% of the 18.2%, 2019>25 increase happened from 21>25.
  • Pet Services – Inflation slowed in 20 but grew in 21. In 24 prices surged Jan>Mar, fell April, rose May, fell Jun, rose Jul>Nov, fell Dec>Mar 25 to 3.9%, Apr grew to 5.4%, May fell to 4.9%, rose to 5.9% in Jun & 6.3% in Jul, fell to 5.8% in Aug & 5.1% in Sep. They are #2 vs 24, 21 & 19. 73% of their 19>25 inflation is from 21>25. In Dec 23, it was 49%.
  • Haircuts/Other Personal Services – Prices are +0.9% from Aug and +4.6% from Sep 24. 14 of the last 21 months have been 4.0+%. Inflation has been pretty consistent. 62.5% of the 19>25 inflation happened 21>25.
  • Total Pet– Petflation jumped up to 3.5% from 2.5%. The biggest drivers were Vet (+7.8%) & Supplies (rose from 0.0% to 1.5%). 3.5% is 66.7% more than the 23>24 rate and 16.7% above the U.S. CPI. Plus, 3.5% is 13% above the average Sep Total Pet rate since 1997. Sep prices rose +0.7% from Aug but it was divided – Vet & Supplies up 1+%, Food flat, Services down -0.2%. An Aug>Sep increase has happened in 59% of the years since 1997 (avg Chge: +0.23%). The Pet CPI rose from 2.5% to 3.5%, a 40% increase. Another factor enhancing the big CPI lift was that prices fell -0.4% in Aug>Sep 24. Pricing is very important in Retail Sales, but the CPI is a complex measurement.

Now, let’s look at the YTD numbers.

The 24>25 rate is lower than 23>24 for all but Medical Services & Groceries. The 22>23 inflation rate was the highest for all pet categories but Supplies. 21>22 has the highest rate for Pet Supplies, Groceries and the National CPI. 20>21 has the highest rate for Haircuts. The average national inflation in the 6 years since 2019 is 3.9%. Only 3 of the categories are below that rate – Medical Services (2.9%), Pet Supplies (1.9%) and Pet Food (3.6%). It is no surprise that Veterinary Services has the highest average rate (6.6%), but all 4 other categories are +4.3% or higher.

  • U.S. CPI – The 24>25 rate is 2.7%, down 10% from 23>24, but it is down 39% from 22>23, 67.5% less than 21>22 and 30.8% below the average increase from 2019>2025. However, it’s still 86% more than the average increase from 2018>20. 75% of the 26.0% inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25. Inflation is a problem that started recently.
  • Pet Food – Ytd prices are still deflating, -0.2%, up from -0.3% in Aug and significantly up from -1.1% in Jan. That’s a big change from 0.7% in 23>24, 12.3% in 22>23 and even the 1.55% 18>20 average. It’s even below 20>21. Pet Food has the highest 22>23 rate but is only #4 in the 21>25 rates. Deflation in the 1st half of 2021 kept YTD prices low then they surged in 22 and especially in 23. 96% of the inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25.
  • Food at Home – The 24>25 inflation rate is more than double the 23>24 rate, but at 2.3%, it is down 63% from 22>23, 79% from 21>22 and even 11.5% less than 20>21. However, it is still 7% more than the average rate from 2018>20. It is only in 4th place for the highest inflation since 2019 but still beat the U.S. CPI by 13.5%. You can see the impact of supply chain issues on the Grocery category as 75% of the inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25.
  • Pets & Pet Supplies – A true roller coaster, prices rose Jan>Feb 24, fell Mar>Apr, rose May>Jun, fell July, rose Aug, fell Sep>Oct, rose Nov>Dec, fell Jan>Feb 25, then rose Mar>May. Prices vs 24 flipped from inflation to deflation in June, went back to inflation in July, slowed to 0.0% in Aug, then rose to 0.5%. Supplies still have the lowest inflation since 2019. Their biggest YOY lifts since 2019 were in 22 & 23. The 2021 deflation created an unusual situation. Prices are up 11.9% from 2019 but 107% of this lift happened from 21>25. Prices are up 12.7% from their 2021 “bottom”.
  • Veterinary Services – Inflation was high in 2019 and steadily grew until it took off in late 2022. The rate may have peaked in 2023, but it is still going strong in 2025, +6.5%, the highest on the chart. They are also #1 in inflation since 2019 and since 2021. At +6.6%, they have the highest average inflation rate since 2019. It is 69% higher than the National Average but 2.3 times higher than the Inflation average for Medical Services. Strong Inflation is the norm in Veterinary Services.
  • Medical Services – Prices went up significantly at the beginning of the pandemic, but inflation slowed in 2021. In 2025 it is 3.4%, 17% above the 2.9% 2019>25 average rate. We should also note that 3.4% is obviously radically higher than the -0.1% deflation in 22>23.
  • Pet Services – After falling in late 2023, prices surged in 2024, then fell in 2025 until an Apr>Aug resurgence followed by a Sep dip. The 24>25 5.2% CPI is 2nd, behind Veterinary on the chart. It is their lowest rate since 20/21, but it is double their 2018>20 2.6% average rate. Pet Services is also 2nd in both 19>25 and 21>25 inflation.
  • Haircuts & Personal Services – The services segments, essential & non-essential, were hit hardest by the pandemic. The industry responded by raising prices. 2025 inflation is 4.1%, 23% below its 20/21 peak, but 21% above the 18>20 average. Consumers are paying over 30% more than in 2019, which usually reduces the purchase frequency.
  • Total Pet – Petflation is 2.3%, up from 2.1% in Aug, but 15% less than 23>24. It’s also 1% lower than their 18>21 avg and 15% below the CPI. Petflation is still at its lowest rate since early 2021. This was primarily driven by deflation in Pet Products and lower inflation in Services. However, except for Mar & Aug, Pet prices have turned up in 25.

The Petflation recovery paused in Aug 24, came back Sep>Oct, paused in Nov, resumed in Dec>Jan, paused in Feb, restarted in Mar and paused Apr>Jun. Then July hit the highest rate in 25. It slowed in Aug but rose in Sep. We tend to focus on monthly inflation while ignoring one critical fact. Inflation is cumulative. Pet prices are 24% above 2021 & 29% higher than 2019. Those are big lifts. In fact, Sep prices for Vet & Total are the highest in history. Note: All other Pet Segments are within 0.7% of their record high. Only Supplies prices (+11.9%) are less than 23.5% higher than 2019. Since price/value is the biggest driver in consumer spending, inflation will affect the Pet Industry. Services will be the least impacted as it is driven by high income CUs. Veterinary will see a reduction in visit frequency. The product segments will see a more complex reaction. Supplies will likely see a reduction in purchase frequency and some Pet Parents may even downgrade their Pet Food. Products will see a strong movement to online purchasing and private label. At SZ and GPE 24 & 25, a huge number of exhibitors actively offered their OEM services. Strong, cumulative inflation has a widespread impact, but tarifflation can hit even harder. Supplies would likely be the most impacted by new high tariffs. We’ll see…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2024 Top 100 U.S. Retailers – Sales: $3.04 Trillion, Up 3.7%

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The U.S. Retail market reached $8.39 Trillion in 2024 from all channels – Auto Dealers, Supermarkets, Restaurants, Online retailers and even Pet Stores. The $247B, +3.0% lift was down significantly from the pandemic recovery lift of +$1.12T, +18.3% in 2021. However, the Total Retail market is now $2.32T, 34.2% ahead of 2019. That’s a strong annual growth rate of +6.1%. (Data courtesy of the Census Bureau’s monthly retail trade report.)

In this report we will focus on the top 100 Retailers in the U.S. Market. The base data on the Top 100 comes from Kantar Research and was published by the National Retail Federation (NRF). The historical data for some companies that weren’t in the Top 100 all years from 2019>2023 was gathered from other reliable sources. In 2020, Restaurants were removed from the list and only Convenience stores sales for Gas Stations were included. I adjusted the 2019 list to reflect this change. This change means that the Top 100 now only includes Relevant Retail companies. The Top 100 account for 36.2% of the total market. This share peaked at 39.8% during the 2020 pandemic and has stabilized at 36% since then. However, the Top 100 are still the “Retail Elite”. The vast majority of the group also stock and sell a lot of Pet Products so their progress is critically important to the Pet Industry. Let’s get started in our analysis. The report does contain a lot of data, but no longer a store count. We’ll still break it up into smaller pieces to make it more digestible.

We will begin our report with an overview chart of the 2019>2024 annual sales history for major segments of the Retail Marketplace. The U.S. Retail market strongly recovered from the 2020 pandemic trauma and the resurgence became widespread across most channels. Our regular retail sales reports have shown that different defined retail channels often took a different path from 2019 to 2021. In the Spring of 2021 and throughout 2022 the retail market faced a new challenge – strong inflation. The YOY price increases were the largest in decades, even reaching double digits in October of 2021 (stayed for 11 months). The high rate didn’t start to slow until July of 2022. Although the increase rate has slowed, the retail market is now feeling the impact of high cumulative inflation. The Top 100 analysis allows us to see if the company revenue size was a factor in their overall pandemic/price journey from 2019>2024. The following chart shows the annual sales and market share as well as the changes in both for large retail subgroups that are based upon the amount of their annual revenue. Note: In comments we’ll show Avg Growth Rates – Actual & Real (Inflation Related)

  • The Total Retail Market grew $247B, +3.0% in 2024. That is far less than the $1.12T, +18.3% in 2021 and even below pre-pandemic years: 2019, 3.6%; 2018, 4.9%; 2017, 4.3%. However, the average growth rate from 2019>24 is 6.7%, which is 72% above the 2016>19 rate of 3.9%. Factoring in inflation, Real 19>24 growth was +2.4%, below the 16>19 real rate of +2.7%. The impact of cumulative inflation – smaller sales increases and only 36% of 19>24 growth is real.
  • The “Non-Relevant” Group (Restaurants, Auto Dlrs, Gas Stations) was hit hardest by the pandemic as sales fell -9.7% in 2020. They had a strong recovery as 20>22 sales grew $906B, 41.9%. Average annual growth: 18.8%. In 23 the increase slowed to 2.6% & 2.2% in 24. High inflation from 2019 was a factor. Gas: 27%; Auto: 24%; Restaurants: 28%
  • Relevant Retail was the hero of the pandemic as they kept Total Retail positive in 2020. Their sales surged in the 2021 recovery then radically slowed in 23 (3.9%) & 24 (3.6%). They were still up $179B producing an average growth rate since 2019 of +7.1%. Their Real growth rate (considering inflation) was +3.9%. Their share of Total Retail has stabilized at 61% but it is down 2.9% from its peak of 64.6% in 2020. The story is complex. We’ll drill deeper.
  • The Top 100 Retailers make up 58.8% of Relevant Retail and 36.2% of Total Retail. Sales have grown every year since 2019 but growth slowed markedly in 23 before an uptick in 24. Their market share has fallen since peaking in 2020 for Total Retail and 2019 for Relevant Retail. Their average growth since 2019 is +5.6%, but Real Growth is +3.4%. 60.7% of their growth is real.
  • The biggest subgroup in $ales in the Top 100 is the Top 10 which accounts for 60.1% of the Top 100’s revenue, up from 55% in 2019. This group has been unchanged since 2015 and consists of Amazon, plus truly essential brick ‘n mortar retailers. Their biggest sales surge occurred in 2020 which was their peak in Total & Relevant Retail market share. Their growth slowed in 23 but rose in 24. Their average growth rate is +7.5%. Real growth was +4.3%,  57.3%.
  • The Retailers ranked from #11 to #100 change slightly every year. Their sales in 2024 ranged from $4B to $71.1B and they accounted for 39.9% of the Top 100’s revenue. They have an unusual sales pattern in that their $46B decrease in 2020 is the only negative sales on the chart outside of the big drop by Rest/Auto/Gas. They did have a big 10.7% increase in 2021 but that fell to 1.9% in 23 & 1.5% in 24. They have lost market share in Relevant & Total Retail every year since 2019 but are still a big part of U.S. Retail. Avg Growth: +3.0%; Real: 2.3% – 75.3%.
  • The Relevant Retailers outside of the Top 100 don’t get a lot of “press” but maybe they should. They currently account for 41.2% of Relevant Retail $ and 25.4% of Total Retail. They had the biggest percentage increase of any Relevant Retail subgroup overall and in all years but 2020 & 2024 (2nd). Their increase is +9.5%. Real: +6.2%, the best numbers of any group on the chart. While this performance is amazing, perhaps the most important fact is that they delivered 60% of Relevant Retail’s sales increase in 2020 and even 52% of the lift from 2019>2024.

There is no doubt that the big retailers are critical to the success of the U.S. Retail Market. However, there are sometimes “hidden heroes” that should be noted.

The Top 100 only outperformed Total Retail in 2020 and 2024. In fact, their sales growth since 2019 trails Total Retail, Relevant Retail and even Rest/Auto/Gas. It still generates 36.2% of Total U.S. Retail $ so it is still very important. We also should remember that the Top 100 is really a contest with a changing list of winners. Companies drop out and new ones are added. This can be the result of mergers, acquisitions, surging or slumping sales or even a restructuring. In 2024,

3 were new: • JD Sports (Apparel)   • Urban Outfitters (Apparel)   • Grocery Outlet (Supermarket)

3 dropped off: • Southeastern Grocers (Supermarket)  • Big Lots (Small Format Value)  • Shell Oil (Convenience)

I think that we now have a good overview of U.S. Retail and the Top 100 so let’s ask and answer a very relevant question. How many Top 100 companies are buying and selling Pet Products? This will reinforce that Pets have become an integral part of the American Household and how fierce that the competition for the Pet Parents’ $ has become.

  • We should note that the data in the chart only reflects the performance of the companies in the 2024 list since 2019 and is not being compared to the Top 100 list of companies from prior years
  • 88 are selling some Pet Products in stores and/or online. This is 1 more company than 2023 and 8 more than the 1st “official” all Relevant Retail Top 100 list in 2020.
    • Their Total Retail Sales of all products is $2.94 Trillion which is…
      • 96.9% of the total business for the Top 100
      • 56.9% of Relevant Retail
      • 35.1% of the Total Retail market
    • 74 Cos., with $2.77T in sales, sell pet products off the retail shelf – 91.1% of Top 100 $ & 53.5% of Relevant Retail.
      • In 2024, only 2 companies in the current Top 100 changed how they handle pet products – both chose in store. Victoria’s Secret added pet and Advance Auto made some Pet available in their stores.
      • As you can see by the growth in sales, “in store” is still the best way to sell pet.
    • Online only is another story and the story gets complicated.
      • Amazon includes Whole Foods, which has stores in 45 states so the Amazon $ are in the “Pet in Store” numbers.
      • As we said, one retailer now offers some Pet in store rather than online only. The Online only group had the smallest sales lift in 23>24, but they still lead Non-Pet in the 19>24 $ lift.
    • Some non-pet specialty retailers like Lulumon and Signet have had extraordinarily strong post pandemic growth. The growth in the whole non-pet group slowed in 2022, fell -2.7% in 2023 before rebounding slightly to +2.0% in 2024. Perhaps, more of them will see Pet as a real growth opportunity.

The pandemic caused our Pets to become an even more important part of our households. They are truly family. Pet products have long been an integral part of the strongest retailers and are now even more widespread across the entire U.S. marketplace. Of the Top 100, Companies doing 91% of sales stock & sell at least some pet items. However, there are thousands of additional “pet” retail outlets including 15,000 Grocery Stores, 10,000 Pet Stores, 16,000 Vet Clinics, 6,000 Pet Services businesses and more. Pet Products are on the shelf in over 200,000 U.S. brick ‘n mortar stores… plus the internet. Pet Products have become part of the new “normal” for the majority of U.S. Retailers.

Before we analyze the whole Top 100 list in greater detail let’s take a quick look at the Top 10 retailers in the U.S.

Except for changes in rank, this group has been incredibly stable. The list has been the same since 2013, with one slight qualification. In 2015 Albertsons purchased Safeway. The new Albertsons/Safeway group replaced the stand-alone Safeway company in the list. We have included the growth, both Actual & Real (Inflation was factored in using specifically targeted CPIs) for 23>24 & 19>24. Plus, the average growth rates for 19>24. Now let’s get into the numbers.

  • Their Total Retail Sales were $1.83 Trillion which is:
    • 60.1% of Top 100 $ales, 0.8% above the previous 2023 peak (59.3%), but 5.1% more than 55% in 2019.
    • 35.3% of Relevant Retail, above 21>23 but down from 36.3% in 2020.
    • 21.8% of Total U.S. Retail $, above 2019 and 21>23, but down from 23.4% in 2020.
  • In ranking, there was only 1 change. Walgreens & Target swapped places.
  • Sales vs 23 are only actually & really down for Lowe’s, but Kroger is also really down.
  • All are actually up vs 19, but Kroger & Walgreens were really down. The biggest growth came from Amazon. In average growth, 5 have rates over 7%, but 2 are really <0%. The group averages +7.5% with +4.3%, 57.3% being real.

Now we’ll look at the detailed list of the top 100. It is sorted by channel groups with subtotals in key columns. The data only reflects the situation for the current 2024 Top 100 Retailers. Retailers have slightly changed in some groups through the years but there has been very little difference in group share. CPI Note: To better reflect their “real” product sales, I used a specific CPI rate for each retailer. These ranged from individual expenditures, like Alcohol at Home for Total Wine & More to specially created targeted aggregates for Superstores/Clubs. For the group, the individual inflation results were then combined to more accurately reflect the group price changes .  There is not a lot of highlighting, but:

  • Pet Columns ’24 & ‘23 – a “1” with an orange highlight indicates that products are only sold online.
  • Rank Columns – 2024 changes in rank from the 2023 list are highlighted as follows:
    • Up 3-5 spots = Lt Blue; Up 6 or more = Green
    • Down 3-5 Spots = Yellow; Down 6 or more = Pink

Let’s get started. Remember, online $ are included in the sales of all companies.

Note:(*) in the 2019 $ column of some companies means the 2019 base was estimated from other sources.

Observations

  • Alcohol Retailers first made the list in 2020 as consumers increased dining at home. Strong growth continues.
  • Apparel – They were hit hard by the pandemic, but had a strong recovery in 21. The increase slowed to 5.3% in 2024 from +6.5% in 2023. 3 companies had sales decreases, but 4 had lifts over 8% from 23. No drop outs and JD Sports & Urban Outfitters were added. The channel now has 14 companies, the most ever and 50+% more than in 2019 (9). Also, 10 sell Pet. In 2019, there were 3. The average group sales increase was Actual: +5.9%; Real: +4.8% (81%).
  • Auto – This group is unchanged from 2019. Their growth continues to slow, +5.0%, down from +6.5% in 23 and +5.5% in 2019. The only negative is Advance Auto is actually & really down from 23 and even really down vs 2019. They did move some pet items in store from online only. The group’s Avg Growth: +8.1%; Real: +3.4%. (42%).
  • Commissary/Exchanges – They were on hold from 2019>22. The 22/23 lift was +5.9%, but 23/24 fell to +0.6%. Their Avg Actual Sales Lift is +1.5%, but their Real Sales Lift Avg is -3.2%.
  • Convenience Stores – In 23 a big drop by 7-Eleven turned the group negative. In 24, Alimentation Couche-Tard sales were down and Shell fell off the list, but sales for the 4 remaining companies were +3.2% vs 23. The group’s Avg Actual Sales change: +5.3%; Real: +0.4%. (7.5% real)
  • The decline in Department Stores was accelerated by the pandemic. Sales in the category grew in 22 because of the addition of Neiman Marcus. 2024 was bad. Only 2 of 7 companies had an actual & real lift vs 23. Vs 2019, 3 had an actual increase but real sales were negative for all. The group’s measurements are all negative. J.C. Penny, a hallmark in the department store channel, has by far the worst performance. Avg Growth: -2.5%; Real: -4.4%
  • Drug Stores – Rite Aid filed for bankruptcy in 23 and have the only sales drop vs 23. Health Mart is really down. All have been closing stores since 2019. Good Neighbor & Rite Aid are actually & really down vs 19 but even Walgreens is really down. Actual Avg: +3.2%; Real: +1.6% (50% real). CVS has the most growth, but mainly from acquisitions

  • Electronics/Entertainment – Sales vs 23 fell for all but Amazon & Apple but the Amazon increase was big enough to turn the group positive. Store closures continued, especially for electronics retailers.
    • Amazon Retail growth increased in 24 but is still only 66% of their average 19>23 growth. However, 85% is Real.
    • 3 were actually down vs 19 (4 real). Dell had the worst Actual, -8.2%. QVC had the worst Real, -8.4%.
    • 4 of 5 Electronics stores were down vs 23 but only 3 were down vs 2019. They continue to close stores. However, strong deflation has pushed real sales up so only Dell and Verizon are “really” down vs 2019.
    • Group avg growth, Actual: +8.3%; Real: +8.2%. Deflation in electronics was strong enough to impact the group.
  • Farm– Tractor Supply growth slowed to 2.2% from 3.4% in 23 & 11.4% in 22. Avg Actual: +12.3%; Real: +7.9% (64%).
  • Hobby & Crafts– Vs 23, all measurements are negative. Hobby Lobby is by far the best performer vs 2019. In fact, Michael’s sales are really down. Avg Group Growth: 3.5%; Real: +1.5%. 43% is real.
  • Home Goods – Vs 23 the group and all but AVB & Overstock are down. Due to deflation, only Amway is really down. Vs 2019, only Amway is actually & really down, but Ikea is also really down. Avg growth: +4.5%; Real: +2.0% (44%).
  • Home Improvement/Hardware – Sales vs last year turned negative in 23, -2.5%. The situation flipped in 24 to +2.0%. Lowes had the only drop – actual & real. Strong deflation helped.
    • Sales vs 2019 are even better. All measurements are positive but real for Menards, -10.4%.
    • Avg Actual Growth: +6.6%; Real: +2.5% ( 38% “Real” growth)
  • Jewelry – Signet sales continued to drop, but at a slower rate, -4.9% vs -12.9% in 23. Avg: 8.1%; Real: 5.2% (64%).
  • Mass Merchants have 3 of the 7 largest volume retailers in America – Wal-Mart, Costco and Target. However, the value and selection offered by the whole group has increased its importance to consumers due to the pandemic.
    • Wal-Mart $ were up 6.5% in 2024, below 6.9% in 2023, 8.7% in 2022 and their average 19>24 increase in sales: +7.3%. Their business is driven by SuperCenters. Groceries drove up cumulative inflation so their real sales avg increase was 4.1%, despite deflation in many general merchandise categories. 56% of their sales are real.
    • Costco’s 2024 $ increase was +4.4%, down from +6.8% in 2023, radically less than +16.9% in 2022 and even 58% below their 10.4% 19>24 average. Average real growth was 7.1% (68%). They continue to open new stores and expand their internet offerings.
    • Target – After 6 consecutive annual sales increases, sales fell -1.6% in 2023, but turned slightly positive in 2024, +0.8%. Their growth peaked at +13.2% in 2021. Avg Growth: 6.7%; Real Growth: 3.5%, 52% real. They continue to open more supercenters. However, their key growth strategy is to expand the product mix in their discount stores, especially by adding more fresh groceries.
    • Meijer’s $ales continue to slow, +2.3%, down from 3.7% in 23, 5.6% in 22 and less than half of their avg of 4.9%. Their avg real growth is 1.7%, so only 35% is real.
    • BJ’s growth rose to 5.6%, up from +4.6% in 23, but down from +22.8% in 22. They are still the growth leader vs 2019, +71.5% in sales. Avg growth: +11.4%; Real: +8.0%, 70% real.
    • We should note that Costco ranks 2nd in both comparisons vs 2019 and Sam’s Club is a significant share of Wal-Mart’s total sales. Mass Merchants are the biggest category and Club stores have moved to the retail forefront. Mass Merchant Avg growth: +7.8%; Real: +4.6%, 59% real.

  • Office Supply Stores – This channel continues its consistent decline as Consumers maintain their move to online ordering of these products. Only Staples remains on the list. All Staples comparisons are negative, and their Avg Growth is: -3.0%; Real: -8.2%.
  • Pet Stores growth in 24 was +2.2%, down from +6.0% in 23, +7.3% in 22 and a big drop from their 21 peak, +22.3%, but they are up +57.6% from 2019. Most of the growth in all measurements is coming from Chewy’s online sales. Pet Store Avg Growth: +9.5%; Real: +6.0%, 63%.
    • With the strong consumer movement to online purchasing, Chewy is still the big story in this channel. They have the most sales. Their 24 lift was +6.4%, down from +10.4% in 23, 13.6% in 22 and +24.4% in 21, but 129% of the Pet Store group’s 2024 $ increase. Their 93.2% sales increase vs 2019 is also 2.5 times that of the retail outlets. Avg Growth rate: +14.1%; Real: +10.4%. 74% of their big increase is real.
    • PetSmart’s 24 growth was only +0.1%, down from +2.0% in 23, +2.2% in 22 and radically below +23.1% in 21. Real Sales are -0.1% in 24 but actual sales are still up +35.3% from 2019. Their average growth rate is +6.2%. Real growth is +2.8%, 45%. The real % is far below Chewy’s, but not too bad.
    • Petco’s sales were -2.7% in 24, a big change from +3.7% in 23, +4.1% in 22 and +17.6% in 21. Their growth since 2019 is +36.7%, slightly ahead of PetSmart. Avg growth: +6.5%; Real: +3.0%, 46%. A big difference from PetSmart is that Petco has cut back on their retail stores.
  • Small Format Value Stores – These stores offer value and convenience. Since Big Lots filed for bankruptcy and fell off the list, the group is now only $ Stores.
    • Group sales increased +4.1%, down from +4.7% in 23. Avg 19>23 Growth: +6.9%; Real: +2.9%, 42%.
    • Dollar General is larger and the growth leader, +4.9% in 24 and +46.2% from 2019. Avg Growth: +7.9%; Real: +4.6%, 58%. Dollar Tree was the growth leader in 23, +8.3%. In 24 they were +3.1% vs 23 and +33.9% vs 2019. Their Avg Growth is +6.0%; Real growth was +2.8%, 47%.
  • Sporting Goods – 24 Sales: +0.5%, much better than -0.2% in 23 but far below +13.6% in 21. Camping World & Academy were again down vs last year, but all are up vs 19. Avg $ Growth: +5.4%; Real: +3.2%, 59%.
    • Dick’s has the best $ performance vs 23 (+4.1%) & 19 (+53.6%). Avg: 9.0%; Real: 6.7%, 68%.
    • Camping World Avg Growth: +4.6%; Real: +2.4%, 52%.; Academy Avg Growth: +3.2%; Real: +1.1%, 34%.
    • Bass Pro is all positive vs 23 & 19, but has the worst performance. Avg Growth: +2.4%; Real: +0.3%, 5%.
  • Supermarkets – 1 drop out – Southeastern Grocers (acquisitions) and 1 addition – Grocery Outlet. They are still the biggest group with 24 companies. Avg Growth: +5.9%; Real: 1.0%, 17%.
    • 6 were down vs 23. 2 more were really down. Biggest Changes: Save-A-Lot, -7.3%; Aldi, +13.5% (acquisitions)
    • Vs 2019, only Save-A-Lot was actually down, but 8 more were really down – sold less product.
    • Sales continue to increase but you see the impact of cumulative inflation – only 17% of the 19>24 growth is real.
    • With $583B in sales and all stores carrying Pet Products, this group is definitely essential both to the Retail Market and the Pet Industry.

Wrapping it up!

This report is focused on 2024 but we can also see the continued evolution of the Retail Marketplace. In 2020 many non-essential retailers were hit with restrictions and closures. On the plus side, consumers turned their focus to essentials and their homes. This helped drive incredible growth in many retail channels.

In 2021 the Total Retail market moved into a full recovery with spectacular growth. Many channels showed a strong sales rebound from 2020. Others built upon their pandemic success while many returned to a more normal growth pattern. However, a few continued to decline. The Top 100 companies had participants in all of these patterns.

In 2022 we were hit by strong inflation in many categories which slowed both actual and real growth. Inflation slowed in 23 but we still see its cumulative impact in the reduced annual increases. Plus, sales of 36 retailers actually fell vs 2023.

The Top 100 is a contest with the winners changing slightly every year. It is a critical part of the U.S. Market, accounting for almost 60% of Relevant Retail Revenue and 36+% of Total Retail. Sales have increased annually but the Top 100’s share of Total Retail peaked in 2020 and in 2019 for Relevant Retail and steadily declined until 2024. The Top 10 has had stronger annual growth but sales in the #11>100 group actually fell in 2020 and their 19>24 increase is only 37% of the Top 10’s lift. We also must remember our new hero – Relevant Retail, not in the Top 100. The 19>24 Sales by these smaller guys are +57.5%, 32% more than the Top 10. Their performance slowed in 24 but it is still amazing.

Pet Products are an important part of the success of the Top 100. 88 companies (96.9% of $) sell Pet items in stores and/or online. The 74 companies that stock pet products in their stores generated $2.77T in total sales. How much was from pet? Let’s “Do the math”. If we take out the $25.5B done by Top 100 Pet stores and the remaining companies generated only 1.7% of their sales from Pet, we’re looking at $46.6B in Pet Products sales from 71 non-pet sources! (The 1.7% Pet share is based on the Economic Census.) If you add Pet Stores & Chewy into the $, Pet Products sales for the Top 100 are $72.1B. The APPA reported $99.1B in Pet Products sales for 24. That means 71 mass market retailers accounted for 47.0% of all the Pet Products sold in the U.S. and 74 Top 100 companies generated 72.8%. Pet Products are widespread in the retail market but the $ are concentrated. Pet Industry participants should monitor the Top 100.

Retail sales increases slowed in 2024 as cumulative inflation became a major factor. The situation is still evolving but the Top 100 will always be a critical part of U.S. Retail. I hope that this report helped put this group into a better perspective.