Archive for category: Pet Market Distribution Channels

In September, the Commodities inflation CPI rose to 1.9% from 1.3% and Total Retail sales were +5.7% vs 24, 22% above their avg September Lift. The Relevant Retail CPI rose to 1.8% from 1.6% and sales were +5.0% vs 24, 8.5% above avg. There are other factors impacting sales, including high cumulative inflation and pre-tarifflation binge buying. It is a complex situation. The problem with YOY drops and the size of sales lifts is better but still a real concern.

We’ll continue to track the retail market with data from 2 reports provided by the Census Bureau and factor in a targeted CPI. The reports are the Monthly and the Advance Retail Sales Reports. Both are derived from sales data gathered from retailers across the U.S. and are published monthly at the same time. The Advance Report has a smaller sample size so it can be published quickly – about 2 weeks after month end. The Monthly Report includes data from all respondents, so it takes longer to compile the data – about 6 weeks. Although the sample size for the Advance report is smaller, the results over the years have proven it to be statistically accurate with the Monthly reports. The biggest difference is that the full sample in the Monthly report allows us to “drill” a little deeper into the retail channels.

We will begin with the July Monthly Report and then go to the August Advance Report. Our focus is comparing to last year but also 21 & 19. We’ll show both actual and the “real” change in sales as we factor inflation into the data.

Both reports include the following:

• Total Retail, Restaurants, Auto, Gas Stations and Relevant Retail (removing Restaurants, Auto and Gas)
• Individual Channel Data – This is more detailed in the Monthly reports, and we’ll focus on Pet Relevant Channels.

The data will be presented in detailed charts to facilitate visual comparison between groups/channels. The charts will show 11 separate measurements. To save space they will be displayed in a stacked bar format for the channel charts.

• Current Month change – % & $ vs previous month
• Current Month change – % & $ vs same month last year and vs 2021.
  • Current Month Real change vs last year and vs 2021 – % factoring in inflation
• Current Ytd change – % & $ for this year vs last year, 2021 & 2019.
  • Current Ytd Real change % for this year vs last year and vs 2021 and 2019
• Monthly & Ytd $ & CPIs for this year vs last year and vs 2021 which are targeted by channel will also be shown. (CPI Details are at the end of the report)

First, the August Monthly. Only 2 were up from July but there were only 2 actual YOY sales drops, Gas Stations vs 24. Note: They are still selling more product than in 2019. 4 groups are now “all positive”, up from 3 in Mar>Jul. Relevant Retail has been all positive in 18 of the last 22 months and in 14 of the last 16. ($ are Not Seasonally Adjusted)

The August Monthly is $0.1B less than the Advance report. Restaurants: +$0.5B; Auto: +$0.1B; Gas Stations: No Chge; Relevant Retail: -$0.8B. Only Restaurants & Auto were up from July. A Jul>Aug decrease in Total Retail  has only happened in 6 of the years since 1992 and the -0.04% drop was far below the -2.2% avg. There were only 2 YOY drops in actual sales, the same as Mar>Jul. There were no “real” sales drops, down from 1 in Jul, 2 less than May/Jun & way down from 4 in Apr & 5 in Mar. 4 groups were “all positive”, (3 in Mar>Jul). Restaurants still have the biggest increases vs 21 & 19 but Relevant Retl stayed at the top of “real” performance vs 2019. However, only 53% of their growth is real.

Now, let’s see how some Key Pet Relevant channels did in August (83% of Aug Ytd Rel Retl $)

Overall– 6 of 11 were down from July. Vs Aug 24, 8 were actually & 6 “really” up. Vs Aug 21, 9 were up but only 6 were real increases. Vs 2019, Only Dept Strs & Off/Gift/Souv were actually & really down.

• Building Material Stores – The pandemic focus on home has produced sales growth of 29.2% since 2019. Prices for the Bldg/Matl group have inflated 20.3% from 21 and 23.5% from 2019 which is having an impact. Sales vs July were -6.0% for HomeCtr/Hdwe and -12.7% for Farm Stores. Vs other years, Farm stores are actually up for all, but Home Center/Hardware are only actually up vs Aug 21 & 2019. They are really down for all but vs 2019. Farm stores are only really up Ytd vs 24 & 19. Plus, only 16% of the Bldg Materials group’s 19>25 lift was real. Avg 19>25 Growth: HomeCtr/Hdwe: 4.0%, Real: 0.4%; Farm: 6.3%, Real: 2.6%
• Food & Drug – Both are essential. Except for the pandemic food binge buying, they tend to have smaller changes in $. Vs July: Supermarkets: +0.1%; Drug: -1.3%. In terms of inflation, the Groceries rate is over 60 times higher than Drug/Med products. Drug Stores are positive in all measurements and 69% of their 2019>25 growth is real. Supermarkets’ actual $ are up in all comparisons. They are only “really” down monthly and Ytd vs 2021. However, only 8.5% of their 19>25 increase is real growth. Avg 19>25 Growth: Supermarkets: +4.9%, Real: +0.5%; Drug Stores: +5.6%, Real: +4.0%.
• Sporting Goods Stores – They also benefited from the pandemic in that consumers turned to self-entertainment, especially sports & outdoor activities. Sales are up 8.1% from July and their only negatives are actual Ytd vs 2024 and actual/real ytd vs 21. Prices are still deflating, -1.3% vs 24. Deflation started in April 23 and is a big change from +1.1% in 22>23 & +7.9% in 21>22. This caused 68% of their 31% lift since 19 to be real. Avg 19>25 Growth is: +4.6%; Real: +3.3%.
• Gen Mdse Stores – Sales were +4.5% vs July, all YOY sales – actual & real were up for Club/SupCtrs. $ Stores were only really down vs Aug 24. Department Stores are negative in all comparisons. Their Actual sales are even -30.6% from 19 (Real: -37.2%). The other channels have an average of 42.5% in real growth. Avg 19>25 Growth: SupCtr/Club: 5.1%, Real: 2.3%; $/Value Strs: +5.4%, Real: +2.6%; Dept. Strs: -5.9%, Real: -7.5%.
• Office, Gift & Souvenir Stores – Sales fell slightly from July, -2.5%, only -$0.1B. They are only actually up Ytd vs 24 & 21, but they are only ‘really’ up Ytd vs 24. Their recovery started late. It was slowly restarting in Jun/Jul, but their progress has slowed. Actual Sales once again are down vs 2019. Avg Growth Rate: -0.01%, Real: -1.7%
• Internet/Mail Order – Sales are -4.6% from July to $115.5B, but still the highest August $ ever. All YOY measurements are positive, but their YOY growth, +7.1%, is only 49% of their average since 2019. However, 82.8% of their 124.9% growth since 2019 is real. Avg Growth: +14.5%, Real: +12.6%. As expected, they are by far the growth leader since 2019.
• A/O Miscellaneous – Pet Stores are 22>24% of total $. In May 2020 they began their recovery which reached $100B for the first time in 2021. In 2022 their sales dipped in Jan, Jul, Sep>Nov, rose in Dec, fell in Jan>Feb 23, grew Mar>May, fell Jun>Aug, rose Sep>Nov, fell Dec>Jan 24, grew Feb>May, fell Jun>Sep, grew Oct, fell Nov, rose Dec, fell Jan>Feb, grew Mar>May, then fell Jun>Aug. All comparisons are again positive, and they are in 2^nd place, behind the Internet, in the % increase vs 19 and vs 21. Also, 77% of their 69.7% growth since 2019 is real. Average 19>25 Growth: 9.2%, Real: +7.4%

August had a small drop vs July. Only 2 Big groups were up & 6 of 11 smaller channels were down. The YOY Aug lift vs 24 was 3.5% for Total & Relevant Retl, about 25% below avg for both. Prices are only deflating in 1 channel (the same as July) but cumulative inflation still impacts sales as only 6 channels were ‘really’ up vs Aug 21. The Retail Recovery has slowed but continues. The August commodities CPI of 1.3% rose to 1.9% in September. Let’s see if it impacts Retail.

Aug>Sep sales were down for all. An Aug>Sep Total Retail drop has happened every year since 1992 but the -4.9% drop is 21% less than the -6.2% avg change. There was 1 YOY $ drop, 1 less than Apr>Aug. $ for all Big Groups were up vs Sep 24 and the Total Retail lift of 5.7% vs Sep 24 was 22% above their +4.7% 92>24 avg. The Relevant Retail 5.0% increase vs Sep 24 was only 8.5% above their +4.6% avg. Inflation is still a factor. The CPI for all commodities rose to 1.9% from 1.3% but it stayed 11.8% vs 21. There is also some good “real” news. No “real” measurement was down, the same as Aug, but down from 1 in July and 3 in May>Jun. Plus, Gas Stations are again “really” up vs 2019 and again 4 Big Groups are all positive, up from 3 in Mar>Jul. Relevant Retail has been all positive in 15 of the last 17 months.

Overall Inflation Reality– The Total Retail CPI rose to 1.9% but the $ lift vs 24 rose to 22% above avg. The Restaurant CPI slowed to +3.7% and their $ lift moved up to 22%  above avg. Gas deflation slowed to -0.4% but they are still in turmoil. Auto inflation stayed 2.6% but it rose to 5.8% vs 21. Auto sales grew 7.6% vs 24, 74% above avg – more pre-tariff buying. Inflation rose to 1.8% for Relevant Retail. Their lift was 8.5% above avg & they are again all positive. Progress is still slow.

Total Retail – Since Jun 20, every month but Apr 23, Jun 24 & Feb 25 has set a monthly $ales record. In 2023>25, Sales were on a roller coaster. Up Jul>Aug, down Sep, up Oct>Dec, down Jan 24, up Feb>Mar, down April, up May, down Jun, up Jul>Aug, down Sep, up Oct>Dec, down Jan>Feb 25, up Mar, down Apr, up May, down Jun, up Jul>Aug, down Sep. Prices are 1.8% and YOY $ are +5.7%, 22% above the 92>24 avg change of 4.7%. 42% of the 19>25 growth is real. Prices are still inflating, and cumulative inflation is still impacting sales. Growth: 24>25: 4.0%; Avg 19>25: +6.2%, Real: +2.9%.

Restaurants – They were hit hard by the pandemic and didn’t begin recovery until March 2021. However, they have had strong growth since then, exceeding $1T for the 1^st time in 2023. August $ are up vs 24 and they have the biggest lifts vs 21 & 19. Inflation slowed to 3.7% vs 24 but it is +23.6% vs 21 and +31.7% vs 19. Their 6.8% YOY lift is 22% above their +5.6% 92>24 avg. They are all positive again, but just 33.9% of their 57.2% growth since 2019 is real. They are 3^rd in performance behind Relevant & Total Retail. Recovery started late but inflation started early. Growth: 5.7%; Avg 19>25: +7.8%, Real: +3.0%. They just account for 13.8% of Total Retail $, but their strong growth has helped Total Retail.

Auto (Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers) – They overcame the stay-at-home attitude with great deals and advertising. They finished 2020 up 1% vs 2019 and hit a record $1.48T in 2021 but much of it was due to skyrocketing inflation. In 22, sales got on a rollercoaster. Inflation started to drop mid-year, but it caused 4 down months in actual $. Their YE real 2022 sales numbers were even worse, -8.2% vs 21 and -8.9% vs 19. 23 started a sales rollercoaster but the $ hit a record, $1.595T. $ fell in Jan 24, grew Feb>Mar, fell Apr, grew May, fell June, grew Jul>Aug, fell Sep, grew Oct, fell Nov, grew Dec, fell Jan>Feb 25, grew Mar, fell Apr>Jun, rose Jul>Aug, fell Sep. Sep $ were +7.6% vs 24. 74% above avg – pretariff. They are again all positive, but just 24.7% of 19>25 growth is real. Growth: 5.1%; Avg 19>25: +5.3%, Real: +1.3%

Gas Stations – Gas Stations were hit hard by “stay at home”. They started recovery in Mar 21, and inflation began. Sales got on a rollercoaster in 22 but set a record, $583B. Inflation started to slow in Aug and prices slightly deflated in Dec & Feb 23, then strongly fell in Mar>Jul to -20.2%. In Aug they rose to -3.7%. In Sep they were +2.7% but began deflating to -4.2% in Feb 24. In Mar>May $ grew, fell Jun, rose July, fell Aug/Sep, rose Oct, fell Nov>Feb 25, rose Mar>May, fell Jun, rose Jul, fell Aug/Sep. Sep $ vs 24: +4.1 (4.9% avg). Only down Ytd vs 24. Real $ are again all positive. Growth: -2.4%; Avg 19>25: +3.3%, Real: 0.07%. They show the cumulative impact of inflation and it can be both positive & negative.

Relevant Retail – Less Auto, Gas and Restaurants – They account for ≈60% of Total Retail $ in a variety of channels, so they took many different paths through the pandemic. Their only down month until Feb 25 was April 2020, and they led the way in Total Retail’s recovery. Sales got on a roller coaster in 2022, but all months set new records with December reaching a new all-time high, $481B, and an annual record of $4.81T. In 2023, the roller coaster continued. A December lift set a new monthly record of $494.7B & an annual record of $4.997T. Sales fell Jan>Feb 24, rose Mar, fell Apr, rose in May, fell in June, rose Jul>Aug, fell Sep, rose Oct>Jan 25, fell Feb, rose Mar>May, fell Jun, rose Jul, fell Aug>Sep. The Sep 5.0% YOY lift is 8.5% above their 92>24 avg of +4.6%. They are all positive again and 53% of their 46.7% 19>25 growth is real, #1 in performance. Growth: 4.0%; Avg 19>25: +6.5%, Real: +3.7%. In 2024 their inflation rate dropped from 3.2% to 0.1%, stabilized at 0.5% Dec>Jan, rose to 0.7% in Mar, slowed to 0.6% in Apr, rose to 0.8% in May, 1.2% in Jun>Jul, 1.6% in Aug, & 1.8% in Sep. Inflation is pretty low, but its cumulative impact can slow growth. We’ll see what happens.

YOY inflation is low, but cumulative & impending lifts can affect sales. In Sep, just 1 actual YOY $ comparison was negative, 1 less than Mar>Aug. In Aug/Sep, there were no real drops – 1 in July, 3 in Jun. In Aug, Gas Stations were down vs 24. All others were up, but only Restaurants had an above avg lift. In Sep, Gas Stations were again down & all others up, but with above avg lifts. So in Aug/Sep, 4 big groups were all positive. Relevant Retail has now been all positive in 14 of 16 months. Sep sales fell vs Aug. However, the drop was much less than expected, but the Retail recovery is still slow.

Here’s a more detailed look at September by Key Channels (98% of September Ytd Rel Retl $)

• Relevant Retail: Growth: +4.1%; Avg 19>25: +6.6%, Real: +3.7%. Only 3 of 11 were up from August. Vs Sep 24: 10 were up, Real: 8, Vs Sep 21: 7 were up, Real: 6. Vs 19: Only Dept Stores were down – both actually & really.
• All Department Stores – This group was struggling before the pandemic hit them hard. They began recovery in March 2021. Sales are -10.8% from Aug and all actual & real YOY measurements are negative. Their -4.6% Sep YOY drop is slightly better than their -4.7% avg change. Growth: -2.9%; Avg 19>25: -5.9%, Real: -7.4%.
• Club/SuprCtr/$- They fueled a big part of the recovery because they focus on value which has broad consumer appeal. $ales are -9.7% from Aug, but they are only really down vs Sep 24. However, only 42.0% of their 35.2% 19>25 lift is real. Their 1.3% YOY Sep lift is -84% below their 92>24 avg of +8.3%. Growth: 2.4%; Avg 19>25: +5.2%, Real: +2.3%.
• Grocery- They depend on frequent purchases, so their changes are usually less radical. Actual $ are -4.4% from Aug but positive in all actual comparisons. Cumulative inflation has hit them hard as real $ are down monthly & Ytd vs 21. Only 7% of 19>25 growth is real but their 3.2% YOY lift is 0.5% above avg. Growth: 2.9%; Avg 19>25: +4.8%, Real: +0.4%.
• Health/Drug Stores – Many stores are essential, but consumers visit less frequently than Grocery stores. $ are +2.1% from Aug and they are positive in all comparisons. Inflation has been relatively low so 68% of their 37.6% 19>25 growth is real. Plus, their +7.8% YOY lift vs Sep 24 is 45% above avg. Growth: 7.1%; Avg 19>25: +5.5%, Real: +3.9%
• Clothing and Accessories – Clothes mattered less if you stayed home. That changed in March 2021 with strong growth through 2022. Sales are -15.2% from Aug but positive in all YOY measurements. 69% of their 19>25 growth is real. $ are +7.9% vs Sep 24, 2.9 times more than their Sep avg (pre-tariff buying). Growth: 5.2%; Avg 19>25: +3.4%, Real: +2.4%
• Home Furnishings – In mid-2020 consumers’ focus turned to their homes and furniture became a priority. Inflation has slowed to 2.5%. $ are -1.6% from Aug but are only down monthly & Ytd vs 21. However, only 13% of their 19>25 growth is real. YOY vs Sep 24: +3.3%, 8% above avg. Growth: 4.7%; Avg 19>25:+2.7%, Real:+0.4%
• Electronic & Appliances – They have had many issues. Sales fell in Apr>May of 2020 and didn’t reach 2019 levels until March 21. $ are -3.2% from Aug and they are only actually up vs Sep 24 & Ytd 24,19. Deflation drove real numbers up, so all comparisons are positive. Sales are +7.2% vs Sep 24, 3.6 times the avg. Growth: 0.1%; Avg 19>25: 0.6%, Real: +3.8%.
• Building Material, Farm & Garden & Hardware – They truly benefited from the consumers’ focus on home. In 2022 the lift slowed as inflation grew to double digits. Prices turned up in Apr>Sep 25 but sales are +0.1% from Aug. Actual $ are only down Ytd vs 24. Real sales are down for all but vs 2019. Just 17% of their 19>25 sales growth is real. YOY sales vs Sep 24 were 0.8%, -80% below their 4.1% Avg. Growth: -0.9%; Avg 19>25: +4.5%, Real: +0.8%.
• Sporting Goods, Hobby and Book Stores – Consumers turned their attention to recreation and Sporting Goods stores sales took off. Book & Hobby Stores recovered more slowly. They have been on a sales rollercoaster since June 24 and $ are -14.7% from Aug. Actual & real sales are only down Monthly & Ytd vs 21. 80% of their 19>25 growth is real. YOY Sales vs Sep 24 are +2.1%, -20% below avg. Growth: +0.7%; Avg 19>25: +3.9%, Real: +3.2%.
• All Miscellaneous Stores – Pet Stores have been a key part of the strong and growing recovery of this group. They finished 2020 at +0.9% but sales took off in March 21 and have continued to grow. Sales are +3.2% vs Aug and positive in all comparisons. They are 2^nd in the % increases vs 19 & vs 21 and 71.3% of their 51.6% 19>25 growth is real. Plus, their 10.8% YOY Sep lift is 2.6 times more than their 92>24 avg of +4.1%. Growth: +8.4%; Avg 19>25: +7.2%, Real: 5.4%.
• NonStore Retailers – 90% of their $ comes from Internet/Mail Order/TV. The pandemic accelerated online spending. They ended 2020 +21.4%. The growth continued in 2021 as sales exceeded $100B for the 1^st time and they broke the $1 Trillion barrier. $ are -1.0% from Aug and their YOY lift of 8.6% is -13% below the 9.9% avg. However, they are positive in all comparisons and 82% of their 114.3% 19>25 growth is real. Growth: 7.0%; Avg 19>25: +13.5%, Real: +11.6%.

Recap – Driven by Relevant Retail, the Pandemic recovery was widespread by Y/E 2021. In 2022 we were hit with the strongest inflation in 40 years. Overall inflation has slowed considerably from its Jun 22 peak but only 2 channels are now deflating, down from 5 in May. Deflation helps, but cumulative inflation can still have a negative impact – slowed YOY growth and even sales drops. $ only rose from Aug for 3 of 11 channels. All of the 3 lifts were above avg. 6 of the 8 drops were bigger than avg. The biggest concern is still YOY drops and smaller lifts. Relevant Retail’s 5.0% lift vs Sep 24 was 8.5% above avg. 10 channels had a YOY lift vs Sep 24, 1 more than Aug and 2 more than July. Plus, 6 of the 10 lifts were above avg, up from 4 in Aug and 5 in July. Here is some more mixed news. In Mar>Jul 3 Big Groups were all positive. That grew to 4 in Aug and again in Sep. In July/Aug, 5 smaller channels were also all positive, up from 4 in June. That fell to  4 in September. Relevant Retail has now been all positive in 14 of the last 16 months. The situation is definitely mixed and still concerning as the progress is slow.

Finally, here are the details and updated inflation rates for the CPIs used to calculate the impact of inflation on retail groups and channels. This includes special aggregate CPIs created with the instruction and guidance of personnel from the US BLS. I also researched data from the last Economic Census to review the share of sales by product category for the various channels to help in selecting what expenditures to include in specific aggregates. Of course, none of these specially created aggregates are 100% accurate but they are much closer than the overall CPI or available aggregates. The data also includes the CPI changes vs 2021 to show cumulative inflation.

Monthly YOY CPI changes of 0.2% or more are highlighted. (Green = lower; Pink = higher)

Here are some answers to some obvious questions. Note: All Rel Rtl but Furniture, Groceries, Clothing increased prices.

1.       Why is the group for Nonstore different from the Internet?

Non-store is not all internet. It also includes Fuel Oil Dealers, the non-motor fuel Energy Commodity.

2.       Why is there no Food at home included in Nonstore or Internet?

Online Grocery purchasing is becoming popular, but almost all is from companies whose major business is brick ‘n mortar. These online sales are recorded under their primary channel.

3.       5  Channels have the same CPI aggregate but represent a variety of business types

 They also have a wide range of product types. Rather than try to build aggregates of a multitude of small expenditure categories, it seemed better to        eliminate the biggest, influential groups that they don’t sell. This method is not perfect, but it is certainly closer than any existing aggregate.

4.       Why are Grocery and Supermarkets only tied to the Grocery CPI?

According to the Economic Census, 76% of their sales comes from Grocery products. Grocery Products are the driver. The balance of their sales comes from a collection of a multitude of categories.

5.       What about Drug/Health Stores only being tied to Medical Commodities.

An answer similar to the one for Grocery/Supermarkets. However, in this case Medical Commodities account for over 80% of these stores’ total sales.

6.       Why do SuperCtrs/Clubs and $ Stores have the same CPI?

Big Stores sell more fresh groceries, Groceries account for ¼ of $ Store sales. Same Ctgys – different mix.

 

 

 

 

 

Inflation seems simple – just compare this year’s prices to the same time last year. In fact, it is more complex. The most important thing to remember is that it is cumulative so even when the YOY rate slows, it can cause a range of issues – selling less product and even a drop in $. One impact that is often ignored is slowed $ growth. That is the focus of this report. To give a better view of the situation we will include charts covering Jan>Aug 25 for the Big Groups and the “Advance” Relevant Retail Channels. We will include separate charts for Monthly & Ytd data to better show trends.

First the Jan>Aug Monthly Report for Big Groups (100% of U.S. Retail $)

We also included the Y/E numbers for 2024, both actual & average, to show our 1^st goal – Beat these lifts!

For the Big Groups, Jan is arguably the best month, but Feb is definitely the worst. It is often the low point of the Retail year. In 25, the lift vs 24 was -78% below avg for Relevant Retail, but Total and all other groups had drops. After a mostly positive July, progress slowed in August. Gas Stations had their smallest monthly drop in 25, but only Restaurants had an above avg lift. April is still the 2^nd best month of the year, with 1 drop but 4 above avg lifts, including Total. May was much worse. There was improvement in June/July, then the situation worsened in August.

Restaurants – Restaurants are the best performing group. They had a small, -0.8% drop in February but above avg lifts in all other months. Amazingly, their performance peaked at +36.1% in May,  which is the 2^nd worst retail month in 2025.

Auto – Except for May & Aug, their pattern was the same as Restaurants but usually with bigger changes, especially in Mar/Apr. The Mar/Apr lifts were about double the avg. The 25% tariff was effective 4/3/25. Consumers saved thousands of dollars, but the binge buy ended in May, -59.7% below avg. Sales bounced back in Jun/Jul, then slowed in August.

Gas Stations – They are definitely in turmoil. Sales fell Feb>Aug and until Jul>Aug, all drops were bigger than 2024.

Relevant Retail – They do about 60% of Total Retail $. They have a similar pattern but with 2 differences. The biggest is that they were +1% in Feb – no drop. #2 was in July. Their lift was 1.7% above avg while Total was -7.8% below avg. The Feb/Mar, May/Jun & Aug lifts were below avg while the Jan, Apr & Jul lifts were above avg. Their 23>24 lift was above Total. In May & July their lifts were much better than Total. Both had Aug lifts 20+% below avg. Their progress slowed.

Total Retail – They had a small drop in February, but March was basically equal to the avg. Jan & Apr were the only above avg months. All non-Feb months had lifts above the 3.0% 23>24 Y/E increase but the May lift was only +3.1%, -33.9% below avg. The situation improved in Jun>Jul, then worsened in Aug, -25.6% below avg.        Here is a Jan>Aug Summary:    

8 MONTHS: $↓: 10; ↑Avg: 17; ↓Avg: 13

Jan: $↓: 0; ↑Avg: 4; ↓Avg: 1; Feb: $↓: 4; ↑Avg: 0; ↓Avg: 1; Mar: $↓: 1; ↑Avg: 2; ↓Avg: 2; Apr: $↓: 1; ↑Avg: 4; ↓Avg: 0

May: $↓: 1; ↑Avg: 1; ↓Avg: 3; Jun: $↓: 1; ↑Avg: 2; ↓Avg: 2;  Jul: $↓: 1; ↑Avg: 2; ↓Avg: 2; Aug: $↓: 1; ↑Avg: 1; ↓Avg: 3 

Now let’s take a closer look at Relevant Retail. We will report on the 11 channels in our Advance report.

11 Relevant Retail Channels (98% of Ytd Rel Rtl $)

Relevant Retail – Their +3.6% lift in 24 was -22.8% below average. No drops in 25. The lifts for February, March, May, June & August were below average, but Jan, April & July were above average. The August lift is +3.7%, -21.1% below avg.

Furniture – No drops. Lifts were double the average in January, March & April but still big in May>Jul. Aug was below avg for the 1^st time since Feb. The huge lifts in Mar>Jul were probably due to fear of high prices from impending tariffs.

Electronics/Appliances – They have ongoing high deflation. $ Dropped in both Jan & Feb. Sales turned positive in Mar, dropped Apr>May, hit +0.0% in Jun, then rose to +1.8% in Jul and +2.6% in Aug, the only above avg lift in 2025.

Bldg Matl/Garden/Farm – They had the smallest of the 4 drops in 23>24, -0.6%, but the 3rd biggest decrease (of 6) in Feb, -6.1%. They had lifts in Jan, Mar, Apr & Jun but all were below avg and mixed with drops in Feb & May. The Jan, Apr & Jun lifts were 70+% below avg. Jul (-1.4%) & Aug (-5.7%) brought 2 more drops but Feb was still the biggest of the year.

Grocery – Sales were only +2.0% in 24, -36% below average but they surged in Jan, 63% above avg. Growth slowed to 1% or less in Feb>Mar, 70+% below avg. They had a strong rebound in Apr. Sales were +5.8%, 93% above avg. The lifts slowed markedly in May>Jun, but increased in July to +3.3%, 8.1% above avg. Aug then slowed to +3.0%, 4.6% below avg.

Health/Drug – Sales were +3.6% in 24, -31% below avg. The lifts grew to 4+% in Jan/Feb, surged in Mar>Jun to +7>11%, 40>124% above avg. They slowed to +5.5% in July, 3% above avg, and then to +3.3% in Aug, below avg and the 23>24 lift.

Clothing – 24 $: +2.5%, -19% below avg. A strong start to 25, but Sales fell -2.4% in Feb. However, the Mar lift was 1% above avg, then Sales “took off” in Apr to +6.9%, more than double the avg lift. The strong lift continued in May, +5.3%, 60% above avg. The binge buying ended in Jun as the lift slowed to +2.9%, but resumed in Jul>Aug, 150+% above avg.

Sport/Hobby/Book – They were -2.8% in 24. This trend continued and hit bottom at -6.4% in Feb. In Mar>May they turned slightly positive. June fell -1.2%, but the Jul>Aug lifts soared to 4+%. Both were above avg, Jul: +28%; Aug: +50%.

Department Strs – It’s hard to find something positive. They were -4.6% in 24 and had drops Jan>Aug in 25. The biggest drop was -5.9% in Feb and the smallest was -0.5% in Jan & July. Sort of good news: 6 of 8 drops in 25 were less than avg.

Clubs/SupCtrs/Value/$ – They offer value & convenience – 1 stop shopping. They have had strong growth from the start. COVID accelerated growth so it is no surprise that all lifts are below avg. They even had small <-0.3% drops in Feb/Mar. April improved to +5.3% but sales slowed to +3.5% in May and +1.3% in Jun. July rose to +2.4%, but Aug slowed to +1.9%.

Miscellaneous – Pet Stores account for 15+% of this group’s sales. They had 2 below avg lifts, Feb & Apr. The Jan & Mar lifts were 80+% above avg and the May>Jul lifts were more than double the avg. Aug was only 63% above avg. They have the 2^nd best channel performance, behind Furniture, and they did it without the benefit of a pre-tarifflation buying surge.

Nonstore – 90% of $ are from internet/mail order (vast majority is internet). The Internet has had strong sales growth since its inception, but it skyrocketed due to COVID’s “stay at home” behavior. They have an avg lift of about 10%. Their 24 lift was +8.1%. From Jan>Jul, all lifts in 25 were below this and below average – no surprise. That partially changed with the +8.2% lift in Aug but it was still -20.5% below avg.            Low: Feb +5.0%; High: Aug +8.2%

JAN>AUG SUMMARY

23>24: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 6; ↑Avg: 1

8 MONTHS: $↓: 22; ↓Avg: 37; ↑Avg: 29

Jan: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 4; Feb: $↓: 6; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 0; Mar: $↓: 2; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 4; Apr: $↓: 2; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 4

                           May: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 4; Jun: $↓: 2; ↓Avg: 6; ↑Avg: 3; Jul: $↓: 2; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 6; Aug: $↓: 2; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 4                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             In the above Summary, regarding Drops and Above Average lifts, green indicates the best and red is the worst. Arguably the best month is July and the worst is February. However, the biggest positive change occurred in March. 4 channels with drops turned positive. 3 became below average and 1 above average. 3 with below average lifts moved up to above average. The classification of 4 were unchanged so 7 fueled the improvement. April was the same as Mar. May was worse than April due to 3 drops. In Jun, Drops fell to 2 but above avg fell to 3. Note: 4+ has become the norm in above avg lifts. We can’t forget January. The number of positive lifts vs Y/E 24 moved up from 7 to 8 but the number with above avg lifts rose from 1 to 4 – a big change. With only 5 drops/below avg lifts, the situation in July greatly improved from 11 in Feb before slowing in Aug. The overall CPI is low but rose in Aug and the 7 drops/below avg again exceed above avg, 4.

Now let’s take a different view of the data from the same retailers. Rather than monthly sales, we  will look at Ytd sales.

The Ytd numbers are arguably the most important. In December, they become Year-End, which is the most quoted and remembered data in any year. While the monthly data shows what’s happening in the marketplace right now, the Ytd data consolidates the data. This blending extends the impact of big sales spikes – positive or negative. This can be either good or bad. The impact of the big drop in February 25 was lessened by the widespread Above Average January lift. It can also work the other way. The big February drop reduced the positivity of stronger lifts in Mar>Jul. Overall, progress stalled in May/June, restarted in July, then slowed in August. We’ll begin our analysis with the Big Retail Groups.

You notice that the spending patterns for Relevant & Total Retl are almost identical. Jan was good for all – 5 lifts, 4 above avg. Feb was bad. Gas Station $ dropped and the others had their most Below Avg lift. In Mar>Aug, only Auto had Above Avg lifts and only Gas Stations had any drops. Restaurants steadily improved but the others’ progress paused in May>Aug

Restaurants – Sales for 24 were +5.2%, -7% below average. They flipped to above avg in Jan, then the lift radically slowed in Feb to +2.4%, -57% below avg. The situation greatly improved in Mar>May, then the progress slowed in Jun>Aug. Their YOY lift essentially stabilized at about +5%, -4>10% below avg for May>Jul. Aug was only -1.8% below avg.

Auto – Sales were +2.3% in 24, -47% below avg and the worst “positive” performance of any group. They turned it around in Jan with an above avg lift. The lift dropped to +2.0% in Feb, -56% below avg and the smallest lift of any positive big group. Their pre-tarifflation buying lift started in Mar/Apr, peaking at +5.9% in April, 33% above avg. In May>Aug the surge slowed, and the lift fell below 5% in Aug. They are the only Group with Mar>Aug above avg lifts.

Gas Stations – Whether you look at the data monthly or Ytd, they are doing bad. The Apr>Aug Ytd sales drops of over         -3.2% are significantly worse than the -2.9% at Y/E 24. That does not bode well for 2025.

Relevant Retail – Except for Jan, +5.0% and now Jul>Aug, 4+%, their YOY lift was stuck in the 3% range. Thanks to an Above avg monthly  lift, April Ytd, +3.9%, did finally exceed the +3.6% of 2024 and stayed at about +3.9% in May>Jun. A strong, July lift restarted their Ytd progress to +4.1%. The lift slowed in Aug, but Ytd is still +4.0%, only 14.4% below avg.

Total Retail – The pattern matches Relevant Retail but the YOY changes for all, but Jan & Mar are smaller. With similar avgs, Total has bigger disparities. Total includes Auto & Gas Stations which have had extreme lifts & drops. Their Mar>Apr progress also paused in May>Jun, rose in July, and slowed in Aug, but their Ytd lift has been above 24 since Mar & stable at +3.6%>3.8% since Apr.

Summary and Comparison of Jan>Aug Monthly to Ytd

Monthly: Drops: 10; Below Avg Lifts: 13; Above Avg Lifts: 17

                                                                              Ytd: Drops;   7; Below Avg Lifts: 23; Above Avg Lifts: 10

                  Mon: Jan: $↓: 0; ↓Avg: 1; ↑Avg: 4; Feb: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 1; ↑Avg: 0; Mar: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 2; ↑Avg: 2; Apr: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 0;↑Avg: 4

                   Ytd:  Jan: $↓: 0; ↓Avg: 1; ↑Avg: 4; Feb: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 0; Mar: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1; Apr: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3;↑Avg: 1

                  Mon: May: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1; Jun: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 2; ↑Avg: 2; Jul: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 1; ↑Avg: 3; Aug: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1

                   Ytd:  May: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1; Jun: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1; Jul: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1; Aug: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1

The orange numbers show that the Ytd report levels the Feb>Aug Big Group data. The Ytd situation isn’t good but it’s better than 24 for all but Gas Stations. Monthly, the Big Groups were never stable. In Ytd data, Mar>Aug was stable.

Now, Let’s look at Ytd Sales for Key Relevant Retail Channels

The Ytd chart looks a little more consistent than the Monthly chart. This is true. Ytd extends the impact of big lifts or drops. The Ytd version has 22% less Below Avg lifts (middle ground), but 32% more Drops & 3% more Above Avg lifts. The result is balance. Ytd also has 2 channels that had drops every month in 2025. Monthly has only 1. However, Ytd has 2 channels with Above Average lifts every month. Monthly has none. It’s a complex situation. Let’s get into the specifics.

Furniture Stores – They are going strong. Their huge January lift pushed the February Ytd lift from below to above avg. Now, all months are above average. Tarifflation fear caused binge buying in Mar>Aug so the current lift is still huge.

Electronics/Appliance – Ytd they are all negative. This version hides the small Mar & Jul lifts, flat $ in Jun & above avg lift in Aug. The positive impact in the Ytd chart was that their YOY drop slowed from -5.0% in February to -0.6% in Aug.

Bldg Matl/Garden/Farm – Their big February drop turned March from a below average monthly lift to a -0.4% Ytd drop. In a reversal, Mar/Apr lifts made Ytd April slightly positive, +0.1%. Sales fell in May/Jul/Aug so Ytd May>Aug was negative.

Grocery – Their big Jan lift made  their Ytd situation look much better. However, Ytd essentially hid the huge above average lift in April and the smaller one in July. Note: Ytd they have been above 24 Y/E in every 2025 month.

Health – Monthly & Ytd had a similar pattern until a below avg lift in Aug – Jan/Feb, below avg; Mar>Jul, above avg. The June lift was huge, more than double the avg. The Aug lift was small, but Ytd is still 30% above avg and 83% above 24.

Clothing – Their big Jan lift eliminated the Feb drop in Ytd, but the Feb drop changed Mar from above to below average in Ytd. Huge lifts in Apr, Jul & Aug kept Ytd above avg and above 24 from Apr>Aug.

Sport/Hobby/Book – They had drops in Jan>Feb. Feb was -6.4%. This turned Ytd all negative. Mar>May had increasing monthly lifts. June $ dropped but Jul & Aug had the biggest lifts in 25, turning Ytd Aug positive, +0.5%.

Department Strs – Both reports show drops every month, but Ytd was always better than 24. Their fade continues.

Club/SupCtr/Value/$ – They offer value and convenience, the biggest shopping drivers. Some $ stores are struggling but SuperCenters/Clubs are still going pretty strong. Besides the internet, one problem in sustaining strong growth is that they are running out of new customers. The Monthly report had a -0.2% drop in February and a -0.3% drop in March. The Ytd numbers look better. There are no drops, but the Aug Ytd lift is only +2.4%, 72% below avg and 17% below 24.

Miscellaneous – This is probably our favorite channel because it includes pet stores. They also have great performance. In the Monthly report, only the YOY lifts for Feb & Apr are below avg. All others are above avg. The Ytd report is even better. All months are above avg and Aug is +8.4%, 98% above average and 56% more than Y/E 24.

Nonstore – They are driven by the internet which has had the strongest growth and became the biggest $ channel in 2020. The Monthly & Ytd reports have similar patterns – all months below avg. Aug Ytd is +6.9%. That sounds great but it is -32% below avg & -15% less than 24. It is difficult, if not impossible to maintain double digit growth…forever.

Relevant Retail – They had no drops and 3 above avg monthly lifts – only 1 (Jan) in Ytd. Ytd shows Mar>Apr growth, a May>Jun pause, a small lift in July & a pause in Aug. The group’s Ytd performance in Apr>Aug exceeds +3.6% in 24 and Aug is +4.0%, only -14% below avg. Here is a summary and comparison of Jan>Aug Monthly to Ytd for the 11 channels.

       Monthly: Drops: 22; Below Avg Lifts: 37; Above Avg Lifts: 29

                Ytd: Drops: 29; Below Avg Lifts: 29; Above Avg Lifts: 30

Mon: Jan: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 4; Feb: $↓: 6; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 0; Mar: $↓: 2; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 4; Apr: $↓: 2; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 4

Ytd:   Jan: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 4; Feb: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 2; Mar: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 3; Apr: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 5

Mon: May: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 4; Jun: $↓: 2; ↓Avg: 6; ↑Avg: 3; Jul: $↓: 2; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 6; Aug: $↓: 2; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 4

Ytd:   May: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 4; Jun: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 4; Jul: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 4; Aug: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 4

The summary clearly shows a key difference between the Monthly & Ytd reports is in the lingering Ytd impact of big drops and lifts. Both views are critically important. Monthly shows what is currently happening in the marketplace and Ytd puts it into perspective. They also show trends over time. Ytd provides an overview while Monthly shows the details fueling the movement.

Inflation negatively affects retail growth both in the short term, with spikes or drops, and in the long term, with cumulative high prices. It can even have an impact before it happens. We saw this with pre-tarifflation “fear” buying. The current retail situation is not good. The YOY lifts vs 24 are generally below the long term avg for most channels. Retail “hit bottom” in Feb but most channels (not Gas Stations or Dept stores) showed improvement in Mar/Apr. The monthly situation worsened in May/Jun, improved in July, then fell back a little in Aug. Ytd it is stable & better than 24. Inflation is low but increasing in most categories. Prices are still high. We’ll see if tariffs have a noticeable impact.

Finally, for your reference, here are the July and August inflation rates for the CPIs of the retail groups and channels in this report. This includes special aggregate CPIs created with the instruction and guidance of personnel from the US BLS. I also researched data from the last Economic Census to review the share of sales by product category for the various channels to help in selecting what expenditures to include in specific aggregates. Of course, none of these specially created aggregates are 100% accurate but they are much closer than the overall CPI or available aggregates. The data also includes the CPI changes vs 2021 to show cumulative inflation. The chart shows both monthly and Ytd inflation so it can be used as a reference for both measurements in the sales growth report.

Monthly YOY CPI changes of 0.2% or more are highlighted. (Green = lower; Pink = higher)

• In the Big Groups, Restaurants was unchanged. Gasoline is still deflating, but prices went up. Auto, Total & Relevant Retail also got worse.
• The monthly inflation also worsened for 9 of 11 smaller channels
  • The biggest change was again Furnishings, but it was good. They fell from 5.2% to 2.6%.
  • There was 1 flip. Clothing went from -0.2% deflation to 0.2% inflation.
  • For 2 channels, the worsening was just a slower deflation rate
• The 2 smaller channels with improved inflation were:
  • Furnishings (+5.2% to +2.6%)
  • Health & Personal Care (+0.1% to +0.04%)
• Cumulative inflation vs 2021 is still high & relatively stable for most channels, especially Ytd

 

 

Inflation seems simple – just compare this year’s prices to the same time last year. In fact, it is more complex. The most important thing to remember is that it is cumulative so even when the YOY rate slows, it can cause a range of issues – selling less product and even a drop in $. One impact that is often ignored is slowed $ growth. That is the focus of this report. To give a better view of the situation we will include charts covering Jan>Jul 25 for the Big Groups and the “Advance” Relevant Retail Channels. We will include separate charts for Monthly & Ytd data to better show trends.

First the Jan>Jul Monthly Report for Big Groups (100% of U.S. Retail $)

We also included the Y/E numbers for 2024, both actual & average, to show our 1^st goal – Beat these lifts!

Jan is arguably the best month, but Feb is definitely the worst. It is often the low point of the Retail year. In 25, the lift vs 24 was -78% below avg for Relevant Retail, but Total and all other groups had drops. A new positive is July. Gas Stations had their smallest monthly drop in 25, but all other groups had lifts, 3 above avg. April is still the best month of this period, with 1 drop but 4 above avg lifts, including Total. In May>Jun, the situation worsened. Still 1 drop, but only 1 above avg lift. June was a better than May, but the big improvement was in July, although the Total lift is still below avg.

Restaurants – The February drop was small and the Mar>May lifts were above avg. They peaked at 7.6% in May, 36.% above avg. Things worsened in June as their lift slowed to -1.0% below avg. July rebounded to +5.9%, 6.3% above avg.

Auto – Until May>Jun, their pattern was the same as Restaurants but with bigger changes, especially in Mar/Apr. The Mar/Apr lifts were basically double the avg. The 25% tariff was effective 4/3/25. Consumers saved thousands of dollars, but the binge buy ended in May, -59.7% below avg. Sales did bounce back in Jun/Jul, 14>27% above avg.

Gas Stations – They are definitely in turmoil. Sales fell Feb>Jul and until the -2.7% drop in July, all were bigger than 2024.

Relevant Retail – They do about 60% of Total Retail $. They have a similar pattern but now with 2 differences. The biggest is that they were +1% in Feb – no drop. #2 was in July. Their lift was 1.7% above avg while Total was -7.8% below avg. The Feb/Mar & May/Jun lifts were below avg while the Jan, Apr & Jul lifts were above avg. Their 23>24 lift was above Total Retail. In May & now July their lifts were much better than Total. Their progress continues.

Total Retail – They had a small drop in February, but March was basically equal to the avg. Jan & Apr were the only above avg months. All non-Feb months had lifts above the 3.0% 23>24 Y/E increase but the May lift was only +3.1%, -33.9% below avg. The situation improved in Jun>Jul, but the July lift is still -7.8% below avg.

 7 MONTHS JAN>JUL SUMMARY: $↓: 9; ↑Avg: 15; ↓Avg: 11

Jan: $↓: 0; ↑Avg: 4; ↓Avg: 1; Feb: $↓: 4; ↑Avg: 0; ↓Avg: 1; Mar: $↓: 1; ↑Avg: 2; ↓Avg: 2; Apr: $↓: 1; ↑Avg: 4; ↓Avg: 0;

                          May: $↓: 1; ↑Avg: 1; ↓Avg: 3; Jun: $↓: 1; ↑Avg: 1; ↓Avg: 3; Jul: $↓: 1; ↑Avg: 3; ↓Avg: 1;                               

Now let’s take a closer look at Relevant Retail. We will report on the 11 channels in our Advance report.

11 Relevant Retail Channels (98% of Ytd Rel Rtl $)

Relevant Retail – Their +3.6% lift in 24 was -22.8% below average. No drops in 25. The lifts for February, March, May & June were below average, but Jan, April & July were above average. The July lift is +4.8%, 1.7% above avg.

Furniture – No drops. Lifts were double the average in January, March & April but still big in May>Jul. The huge lifts in Mar>Jul were probably due to fear of skyrocketing prices from impending tariffs.

Electronics/Appliances – They have ongoing high deflation. $ Drops in both January & February. Sales turned positive in Mar, dropped in Apr>May, returned to positive, +0.7% in Jun, then dropped -1.7% in July. The 2 lifts were both below avg.

Bldg Matl/Garden/Farm – They had the smallest of the 4 drops in 23>24, -0.6%, but the 3rd biggest decrease (of 6) in Feb, -6.1%. They had lifts in Jan, Mar, Apr & Jun but all were below avg. The Jan, Apr & Jun increases were over 70% below avg. May (-2.8%) & July (-1.5%) brought 2 more drops but Feb was still the biggest of the year.

Grocery – Sales were only +2.0% in 24, -36% below average but they surged in Jan, 63% above avg. Growth slowed to 1% or less in Feb>Mar, 70+% below avg. They had a strong rebound in Apr. Sales were +5.8%, 93% above avg. The lifts slowed markedly in May>Jun, but increased in July to +3.4%, 10.6% above avg.

Health/Drug – Sales were +3.6% in 24, -31% below avg. The lifts grew to 4+% in Jan/Feb, surged in Mar/Apr to +8.9%, 75+% above avg, then slowed to +7.3% in May. In June, $ were +11.1%, 123% above avg. July was +5.4%, 3% above avg.

Clothing – 24 $: +2.5%, -19% below avg. A strong start to 25, but Sales fell -2.4% in Feb. However, the Mar lift was 1% above avg, then Sales “took off” in Apr to +6.9%, more than double the avg lift. The strong lift continued in May, +5.3%, 60% above avg. The binge buying ended in Jun as the lift slowed to +2.9%, but resumed in July, +7.4%, 127% above avg.

Sport/Hobby/Book – They were -2.8% in 24. This trend continued and hit bottom at -6.4% in Feb. In Mar>May they turned slightly positive, peaking at +2.0% in May, -39% below avg. June fell -1.1%, but July rose to +2.3%, 27% below avg.

Department Strs – It’s difficult to find something positive. They were -4.6% in 24 and had drops Jan>Jul in 25. The biggest drop was -5.9% in Feb and the smallest was -0.2% in July. Sort of good news: 5 of 7 drops in 25 were less than avg.

Clubs/SupCtrs/Value/$ – They offer value & convenience – 1 stop shopping. They have had strong growth from the start. COVID accelerated growth so it is no surprise that all lifts are below avg. They even had small <-0.3% drops in Feb/Mar. April improved to +5.3% but sales slowed to +3.5% in May and +1.4% in Jun. July rebounded to +3.3%, -61% below avg.

Miscellaneous – Pet Stores account for 15+% of this group’s sales. They had 2 below avg lifts, Feb & Apr. The Jan & Mar lifts were 80+% above avg and the May>Jul lifts were more than double the avg. They have the 2^nd best performance of any channel, behind Furniture Stores, and they achieved it without the benefit of a pre-tarifflation buying surge.

Nonstore – 90% of $ are from internet/mail order (vast majority is internet). The Internet has had strong sales growth since its inception, but it skyrocketed due to COVID’s “stay at home” behavior. They have an avg lift of about 10%. Their 24 lift was +8.1%. From Jan>Jun, all lifts in 25 were below this and below average – no surprise. That partially changed with the +8.3% lift in July but it was still -20.9% below avg.            Low: Feb +5.0%; High: Jul +8.3%

SUMMARY

23>24: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 6; ↑Avg: 1

7 MONTHS JAN>JUL: $↓: 21; ↓Avg: 32; ↑Avg: 24

Jan: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 4; Feb: $↓: 6; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 0; Mar: $↓: 2; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 4; Apr: $↓: 2; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 4;

                          May: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 4; Jun: $↓: 2; ↓Avg: 6; ↑Avg: 3; Jul: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 5;

In the above Summary, regarding Drops and Above Average lifts, a green number indicates the best and a red number is the worst. The best months are Mar, Apr & Jul. The worst is Feb. However, the biggest positive change occurred in March. 4 channels with drops turned positive. 3 became below average and 1 above average. 3 with below average lifts moved up to above average. The classification of 4 were unchanged so 7 fueled the improvement. April was the same as Mar. May was worse than April due to 3 drops. In Jun, Drops fell to 2 but above avg fell to 3. Note: 4+ has become the norm in above avg lifts. We can’t forget January. The number of positive lifts vs Y/E 24 moved up from 7 to 8 but the number with above avg lifts rose from 1 to 4 – a big change. Even with 6 drops/below avg lifts, the situation in July has greatly improved from 11 in Feb. The overall July CPI is low and stable from June, and 5 lifts are above avg, but the channels still had mixed performances.

Now let’s take a different view of the data from the Big Groups and the same 11 channels. Rather than monthly sales, we  will look at Ytd numbers. We will still view them monthly so we can see any trends.

The Ytd numbers are arguably the most important. In December, they become Year-End, which is the most quoted and remembered data in any year. While the monthly data shows what’s happening in the marketplace right now, the Ytd data consolidates the data. This blending extends the impact of big sales spikes – positive or negative. This can be either good or bad. The impact of the big drop in February 25 was lessened by the widespread Above Average January lift. It can also work the other way. The big February drop reduced the positivity of stronger lifts in Mar>Jul. Overall, progress stalled in May/June, then restarted in July. We’ll begin our analysis with the Big Retail Groups.

You notice that the spending patterns for Relevant & Total Retl are almost identical. Jan was good for all – 5 lifts, 4 above avg. Feb was bad. Gas Station $ dropped while the others had their most Below Avg lift. In Mar>Jul, only Auto had Above Avg lifts and only Gas Stations had any drops. Restaurants steadily improved but the others’ progress paused in May>Jul.

Restaurants – Sales for 24 were +5.2%, -7% below average. They flipped to above avg in Jan, then the lift radically slowed in Feb to +2.4%, -57% below avg. The situation steadily improved in Mar>May, then the progress slowed in Jun>Jul. Their YOY lift essentially stabilized at about +5%, -6>10% below avg for May>Jul. They did beat 24’s +5.18% with +5.22% in July.

Auto – Sales were +2.3% in 24, -47% below avg and the worst “positive” performance of any group. They turned it around in Jan with an above avg lift. The lift dropped to +2.0% in Feb, -56% below avg and the smallest lift of any positive big group. Their pre-tarifflation buying lift started in Mar/Apr, peaking at +5.9% in April, 33% above avg. In May>Jul the surge slowed, and the lift fell to ≈5%. They are the only Group with Mar>Jul above avg lifts.

Gas Stations – Whether you look at the data monthly or Ytd, they are doing bad. The Apr>Jul Ytd sales drops of over -3.4% are significantly worse than the -2.9% at Y/E 24. That does not bode well for 2025.

Relevant Retail – Except for Jan, +5.0% and now July, +4.1%, their YOY lift was stuck in the 3% range. Thanks to an Above avg monthly  lift, April Ytd, +3.9%, did finally exceed the +3.6% of 2024. The lift stayed at about +3.9% in May>Jun, -16% to -18% below the Ytd avg. A strong, +4.8% July lift restarted their Ytd progress to +4.1%, only -14% below avg.

Total Retail – The pattern matches Relevant Retail but the YOY changes for all, but Jan & Mar are smaller. With similar avgs, Total has bigger disparities. Total includes Auto & Gas Stations which have had extreme lifts & drops. Their Mar>Apr progress also paused in May>Jun and increased slightly in July, but their Ytd YOY lift has been above 24 from Mar>Jul.

                                                             Summary and Comparison of Jan>Jul Monthly to Ytd

                                                        Monthly: Drops: 9; Below Avg Lifts: 11; Above Avg Lifts: 15

                                                                 Ytd: Drops: 6; Below Avg Lifts: 20; Above Avg Lifts:  9

Mon: Jan: $↓: 0; ↓Avg: 1; ↑Avg: 4; Feb: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 1; ↑Avg: 0; Mar: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 2; ↑Avg: 2; Apr: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 0; ↑Avg: 4;

Ytd:   Jan: $↓: 0; ↓Avg: 1; ↑Avg: 4; Feb: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 0; Mar: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1; Apr: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1;

Mon: May: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1; Jun: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1; Jul: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 1; ↑Avg: 3

Ytd:   May: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1; Jun: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1; Jul: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1

The Ytd report levels the Feb>Jul data. You can see this in the orange numbers in the February Drops and the March, April & July Above Average Lifts. The Ytd situation isn’t good but it’s better than 24 for all but Gas Stations. Monthly, the Big Groups were stable May>Jun then improved in July. In Ytd data, Mar>Jul was stable.

Now, Let’s look at Ytd Sales for Key Relevant Retail Channels

The Ytd chart looks a little more consistent than the Monthly chart. This is true. Ytd extends the impact of big lifts or drops. The Ytd version has 22% less Below Avg lifts (middle ground), but 24% more Drops and 8% more Above Avg lifts. The result is balance. Ytd also has 3 channels that had drops every month in 2025. Monthly has only 1. However, Ytd has 2 channels with Above Average lifts every month. Monthly has none. It’s a complex situation. Let’s get into the specifics.

Furniture Stores – They are going strong. Their huge January lift pushed the February Ytd lift from below to above avg. Now, all months are above average. Tarifflation fear caused binge buying in Mar>Jul so the current lift is still huge.

Electronics/Appliance – Ytd they are all negative. This version hides the small Mar & June lifts. The positive impact in the Ytd chart was that their YOY drop slowed from -5.0% in February to -1.6% in Jun/Jul

Bldg Matl/Garden/Farm – Their big February drop turned March from a below average monthly lift to a -0.4% Ytd drop. In a reversal, Mar/Apr lifts made Ytd April slightly positive, +0.1%. Sales fell in May & Jul so Ytd May>Jul was negative.

Grocery – Their big Jan lift made  their Ytd situation look much better. However, Ytd essentially hid the huge above average lift in April and smaller one in July. Note: Ytd they have been above 24 Y/E in every 2025 month.

Health – Monthly & Ytd have a similar pattern – Jan/Feb, below avg; Mar>Jul, above avg. The June lift was huge, more than double the avg. The July lift was small, but Ytd is still 40% above avg and 97% better than 2024.

Clothing – Their big Jan lift eliminated the Feb drop in Ytd, but the Feb drop changed Mar from above to below average in Ytd. Huge lifts in Apr & Jul kept Ytd above avg and above 24 from Apr>Jul.

Sport/Hobby/Book – They had drops in Jan>Feb. Feb was -6.4%. This turned Ytd all negative. Mar>May had increasing monthly lifts. June $ dropped but July was +2.3%, the biggest lift in 25. Ytd is -0.4%, much better than -2.8% in 24.

Department Strs – Both reports show drops every month, but Ytd is better than 24. Their fade continues.

Club/SupCtr/Value/$ – They offer value and convenience, the biggest shopping drivers. Some $ stores are struggling but SuperCenters/Clubs are still going pretty strong. Besides the internet, one problem in sustaining strong growth is that they are running out of new customers. The Monthly report had a -0.2% drop in February and a -0.3% drop in March. The Ytd numbers look better. There are no drops, but the July Ytd lift is only +2.6%, 69% below avg and 10% below 24.

Miscellaneous – This is probably our favorite channel because it includes pet stores. They also have great performance. In the Monthly report, only the YOY lifts for Feb & Apr are below avg. All others are above avg. The Ytd report is even better. All months are above avg and July is +8.2%, 91% above average and 52% more than Y/E 24.

Nonstore – They are driven by the internet which has had the strongest growth and became the biggest $ channel in 2020. The Monthly & Ytd reports have similar patterns – all months below avg. July Ytd is +6.7%. That sounds great but it is -33% below avg & -17% less than 24. It is difficult, if not impossible to maintain double digit growth…forever.

Relevant Retail – They had no drops and 3 above avg monthly lifts – only 1 (Jan) in Ytd. Ytd shows Mar>Apr growth, a May>Jun pause and a small lift in July. The group’s Ytd performance in Apr>Jul exceeds +3.6% in 24 and July is +4.1%, only -14% below avg. Here is a summary and comparison of Jan>Jul Monthly to Ytd for the 11 channels.

                                                       Monthly: Drops: 21; Below Avg Lifts: 32; Above Avg Lifts: 24

                                                                 Ytd: Drops: 26; Below Avg Lifts: 25; Above Avg Lifts: 26

Mon: Jan: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 4; Feb: $↓: 6; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 0; Mar: $↓: 2; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 4; Apr: $↓: 2; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 4

Ytd:   Jan: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 4; Feb: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 2; Mar: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 3; Apr: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 5

Mon: May: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 4; Jun: $↓: 2; ↓Avg: 6; ↑Avg: 3; Jul: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 5

Ytd:   May: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 4; Jun: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 4; Jul: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 4 

The key differences between the Monthly & Ytd reports are in the lingering Ytd impact of big drops and lifts. Both views are critically important. Monthly shows what is currently happening in the marketplace and Ytd puts it into perspective. They also show trends over time. Ytd provides an overview while Monthly shows the details fueling the movement.

Inflation negatively affects retail growth both in the short term, with spikes or drops, and in the long term, with cumulative high prices. It can even have an impact before it happens. We saw this with pre-tarifflation “fear” buying. The current retail situation is not good. The YOY lifts vs 24 are generally below the long term avg for most channels. Retail “hit bottom” in Feb but most channels (not Gas Stations or Dept stores) showed improvement in Mar/Apr. The monthly situation worsened in May/Jun, then improved in July. Ytd it is stable & better than 24. Inflation is low, but prices are still high. We’ll see if tariffs have a noticeable impact.

Finally, for your reference, here are the June and July inflation rates for the CPIs of the retail groups and channels in this report. This includes special aggregate CPIs created with the instruction and guidance of personnel from the US BLS. I also researched data from the last Economic Census to review the share of sales by product category for the various channels to help in selecting what expenditures to include in specific aggregates. Of course, none of these specially created aggregates are 100% accurate but they are much closer than the overall CPI or available aggregates. The data also includes the CPI changes vs 2021 to show cumulative inflation. The chart shows both monthly and Ytd inflation so it can be used as a reference for both measurements in the sales growth report.

Monthly YOY CPI changes of 0.2% or more are highlighted. (Green = lower; Pink = higher)

• In the Big Groups, Relevant Retail inflation was unchanged. Gas prices went down. All others got worse.
• The monthly inflation also worsened for 8 of 11 smaller channels
  • The biggest change was again Furnishings. They jumped from 3.4% to 5.2%.
  • There were no flips from deflation to inflation or vice versa.
  • For 2 channels, the worsening was just a slower deflation rate
• The 3 smaller channels with improved inflation were:
  • Health/Drug (+0.2% to +0.1%)
  • Grocery (+2.4% to +2.2%)
  • Electronics/Appliances (-2.8% to -3.6%)
• Cumulative inflation vs 2021 is still high & stable for most channels, especially Ytd

Inflation seems simple – just compare this year’s prices to the same time last year. In fact, it is more complex. The most important thing to remember is that it is cumulative so even when the YOY rate slows, it can cause a range of issues – selling less product and even a drop in revenue. One impact that is often ignored is slowed $ growth. That is the focus of this report. In order to give an accurate reading of the situation we will include charts for the Big Retail Groups and the “Advance” Relevant Retail Channels. We will also include separate charts for Monthly & Ytd data to better show trends.

First the Jan>Jun Monthly Report for Big Groups (100% of U.S. Retail $)

We also included the Y/E numbers for 2024, both actual & average, to show our 1st goal – Beat these lifts!

There are things that immediately stand out. One is expected – a BAD February. It is often the low point of the Retail year. In 2025, the lift vs 24 was -78% below avg for Relevant Retail, but Total and all other groups had drops. A big positive is January. Gas Stations had their only monthly lift in 25. It was below avg but all other groups had above avg lifts. Now April, 1 drop but 4 above avg lifts, including Total. In May>Jun, the situation worsened. Still 1 drop, but only 1 above avg lift (May: Restaurants; Jun: Auto) and 3 below avg. Total & Relevant were a little less below avg in June.

Restaurants – The February drop was small and the Mar>May lifts were above avg. Those lifts were 6+%, peaking at 7.5% in May, 34.8% above average. Things worsened in June as their lift slowed to +5.4%, -3.8% below average.

Auto – Until May>Jun, their pattern was the same as Restaurants but with bigger changes, especially in March & April. The Mar & Apr lifts were basically double the average. The 25% tariff was effective 4/3/25. Consumers saved thousands of dollars, but the binge buy ended in May, -58.5% below avg. Sales did bounce back in June, +5.3%, 23% above avg.

Gas Stations – They are truly in turmoil. Their only plus month was -42% below avg and all drops were bigger than 2024.

Relevant Retail – They do about 60% of Total Retail $ so it’s no surprise that they have a similar pattern. 1 big difference is that they were +1% in Feb – no drop. The Feb/Mar & May/Jun lifts were below avg while the Jan & Apr lifts were above avg. Their 23>24 lift was above Total Retail. In May their lift was much better than Total. In June, the gap narrowed. Their progress has essentially stabilized.

Total Retail – They had a drop in February, but March was basically equal to the average and Jan & Apr were slightly above average. All non-Feb months had lifts above the 3.0% 23>24 Y/E increase but the May lift was only +3.2%, -33.7% below avg. The situation improved a little in June, +3.7%, but the lift is still -19% below avg.

 TOTAL 6 MONTHS IN 2025: $↓: 8; ↑Avg: 12; ↓Avg: 10

Jan: $↓: 0; ↑Avg: 4; ↓Avg: 1; Feb: $↓: 4; ↑Avg: 0; ↓Avg: 1; Mar: $↓: 1; ↑Avg: 2; ↓Avg: 2

Apr: $↓: 1; ↑Avg: 4; ↓Avg: 0; May: $↓: 1; ↑Avg: 1; ↓Avg: 3; Jun: $↓: 1; ↑Avg: 1; ↓Avg: 3

Now let’s take a closer look at Relevant Retail. We will report on the 11 channels in our Advance report.

11 Relevant Retail Channels (98% of Ytd Rel Rtl $)

Relevant Retail – Their +3.6% lift in 24 was -22.8% below average. No drops in 25. The lifts for February, March, May & June were below average, but January & April were above average. The lift is now +3.9%, -17.5% below avg.

Furniture – No drops. Lifts were double the average in January, March & April but still big in May & June. The huge lifts in Mar>Jun were probably due to fear of skyrocketing prices from impending tariffs.

Electronics/Appliances – They have ongoing high deflation. $ Drops in both January & February. Sales turned positive in Mar, dropped in Apr>May, then returned to slightly positive, +0.7% in June. The 2 lifts were both below average.

Bldg Matl/Garden/Farm – They had the smallest of the 4 drops in 23>24, -0.6%, but the 3rd biggest decrease (of 6) in February, -6.1%. They had lifts in Jan, Mar, Apr & Jun but all were below average. The April increase was -77% below avg and May saw their 2^nd 2025 drop. June was nearly a drop, only +0.2%, 96.1% below avg.

Grocery – Sales were only +2.0% in 24, -36% below average but they surged in January to +5.1%, 63% above average. Growth slowed to 1% or less in Feb>Mar, 70+% below avg. They had a strong rebound in April. Sales were +5.9%, 94% above average. The lifts slowed markedly in May>Jun. June is down to +1.5%, -52.3% below avg.

Health/Drug – Sales were +3.6% in 24, -31% below avg. The lift grew in Jan>Feb to 4+%, about -20% below avg. Sales surged in Mar>Apr to +8.8%, 75% above avg, slowed to +6.7% in May, then June hit a 25 high of +9.7%, 93% above avg.

Clothing – 24 $: +2.5%, -19% below avg. A strong start to 25, +5.4%, 67% above avg. Sales fell -2.4% in Feb, but the Mar lift was 1% above avg. Sales “took off” in Apr to +6.9%, more than double the avg lift. The strong lift continued in May, +5.4%, 62% above avg. The pre-tariff buying binge ended in June as the lift slowed to +2.4%, 24% below avg.

Sport/Hobby/Book – They were -2.8% in 24. This trend continued in Jan>Feb, hitting bottom at -6.4% in February. In Mar>Jun they turned slightly positive, peaking at +2.1% in May, -35% below avg. Jun slowed to +0.9%, -72% below avg.

Department Strs – It’s difficult to find something positive. They were -4.6% in 24 and had drops Jan>Jun in 25. The biggest drop was -5.9% in Feb, but Jun was #2, -4.5% – no surprise. Sort of good news: 4 of 6 drops were below avg.

Clubs/SupCtrs/Value/$ – They offer value and the convenience of 1 stop shopping. They have had strong growth since their creation. COVID accelerated growth so it is no surprise that all lifts are below avg. They even had small <-0.3% drops in Feb/Mar. Things improved in April, +5.3%, then slowed to +3.8% in May and +1.9% in Jun. Jan was best, +5.7%.

Miscellaneous – Pet Stores account for 15+% of this group’s sales. They had 2 below avg lifts, Feb & Apr. The Jan & Mar lifts were 80+% above avg and the May>Jun lifts were more than double the avg. They have the 2^nd best performance of any channel, behind Furniture Stores, and they achieved it without the benefit of a pre-tarifflation buying surge.

Nonstore – 90% of $ are from internet/mail order (vast majority is internet). The Internet has had strong sales growth since its inception, but it skyrocketed due to COVID’s “stay at home” behavior. They have an average lift of about 10%.

Their 24 lift was +8.1%. All lifts in 25 were below this and below average – no surprise. Low: Feb +5.0%; High: Mar +7.2%

SUMMARY

23>24:$↓: 4; ↓Avg: 6; ↑Avg: 1      6 MONTHS IN 2025: $↓: 17; ↓Avg: 30; ↑Avg: 19

                                                       Jan: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 4; Feb: $↓: 6; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 0; Mar: $↓: 2; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 4                                                          Apr: $↓: 2; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 4; May:$↓: 3; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 4;  Jun: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 7; ↑Avg: 3

In the above Summary, regarding Drops and Above Average lifts, a green number indicates the best and a red is the worst. The best months are Mar & Apr and the worst is Feb. However, the biggest positive change occurred in March. 4 channels with drops turned positive. 3 became below average and 1 above average. 3 with below average lifts moved up to above average. The classification of 4 were unchanged so 7 fueled the improvement. April was the same as Mar. May was worse than April due to 3 drops. In Jun, Drops fell to 1 but above avg fell to 3. Note: 4 has become the norm in above avg lifts. We also can’t forget January. The number of positive lifts vs Y/E 24 moved up from 7 to 8 but the number with above average increases rose from 1 to 4 – a significant change. Even with 8 drops/below avg lifts, the situation has improved since hitting bottom with 11 in Feb. The CPI is low, but up for all in Jun. Pre-tariff binge buying may be over.

Now let’s take a different view of the data from the Big Groups and the same 11 channels. Rather than monthly sales, we we will look at Ytd numbers. We will still view them monthly so we can see any trends.

The Ytd numbers are arguably the most important. In December, they become Year-End, which is the most quoted and remembered data in any year. While the monthly data shows what’s happening in the marketplace right now, the Ytd data consolidates the data. This blending extends the impact of big sales spikes – positive or negative. This can be either good or bad. The impact of the big drop in February 25 was lessened by the widespread Above Average January lift. It can also work the other way. The big February drop reduced the positivity of stronger lifts in Mar>Jun. Overall, progress stalled in May & June. We’ll begin our analysis with the Big Retail Groups.

The first thing that you notice is that the spending patterns for Restaurants and Relevant & Total Retail are virtually identical. All groups had January lifts and all, but Gas Stations were Above Average. However, only Auto had Above Average lifts in Mar>Jun. Also, only Gas Stations had any sales drops. Overall, the improvement paused in May>Jun.

Restaurants – Sales for 24 were +5.2%, -7% below average. They flipped in January as the lift vs last year grew to +5.7%, 5.5% above average. The lift radically slowed in February to +2.4%, -57% below average. The situation steadily improved in March/April, even slightly in May but essentially stabilized in June at +5.1%, 9.3% below average.

Auto – Sales were +2.3% in 24, -47% below avg and the worst “positive” performance of any group. They turned it around in Jan with a +5.8% lift, 32% above avg. The lift dropped to +2.0% in Feb, -56% below avg and the smallest lift of any positive big group. Due to pre-tarifflation buying the lift took off in Mar/Apr, reaching +5.9% in April, 33% above avg. In May>Jun the surge ended, and the lift fell to ≈5%. They are the only Group with Mar>Jun above avg lifts.

Gas Stations – Whether you look at the data monthly or Ytd, they are doing bad. The June Ytd sales drop of -4.0% is even 38% worse than the -2.9% at Y/E 24. That does not bode well for 2025.

Relevant Retail – Except for January, +5.0%, they seem to be stuck in the 3% lift range. Thanks to an Above avg monthly  lift, April Ytd, +3.9%, did finally exceed the +3.6% of 2024. The lift stayed at +3.9% in May>Jun, it also stayed at about -18% below the Ytd avg. Their slow, steady Mar>Apr progress paused in May>Jun.

Total Retail – The pattern matches Relevant Retail but the YOY changes for all but January & March are smaller. With similar averages, Total has bigger disparities. Total includes Auto & Gas Stations which have had extreme lifts & drops. Their steady Mar>Apr progress also paused in May>Jun, but their Ytd lift has been above 24 from March through June.

Summary and Comparison of Monthly to Ytd

Monthly: Drops: 8; Below Avg Lifts: 10; Above Avg Lifts: 12

      Ytd: Drops: 5; Below Avg Lifts: 17; Above Avg Lifts:  8

Mon: Jan: $↓: 0; ↓Avg: 1; ↑Avg: 4; Feb: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 1; ↑Avg: 0; Mar: $↓: 1;↓Avg: 2; ↑Avg: 2

Ytd:   Jan: $↓: 0; ↓Avg: 1; ↑Avg: 4; Feb: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 0; Mar: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1

Mon: Apr: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 0;↑Avg: 4; May: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1; Jun: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1;

Ytd:  Apr: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3;↑Avg: 1;  May:$↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1; Jun: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1;

In the summary the orange numbers show that the Ytd report levels the Feb>Jun data. The situation doesn’t look good Ytd but it’s better than 24 for all but Gas Stations. Monthly, the Big Groups stabilized in May. In Ytd data, they stabilized in March.

Now, Let’s look at Ytd Sales for Key Relevant Retail Channels

The Ytd chart looks a little more consistent than the Monthly chart. This is true. Ytd extends the impact of big lifts or drops. The Ytd version has 27% less Below Avg lifts (middle ground), but 29% more Drops & 16% more Above Avg lifts. The result is balance. Ytd also has 3 channels that had drops every month in 2025. Monthly has only 1. However, Ytd has 2 channels with Above Average lifts every month. Monthly has none. It’s a complex situation. Let’s get into the specifics.

Furniture Stores – They are going strong. Their huge January lift pushed the February Ytd lift from below to above avg. Now, all months are above average. Tarifflation fear caused binge buying in Mar>Jun so the current lift is still huge.

Electronics/Appliance – Ytd they are all negative. This version hides the small Mar & June lifts. The positive impact in the Ytd chart was that their YOY drop slowed from -5.0% in February to -1.5% in June.

Bldg Matl/Garden/Farm – Their big February drop turned March from a below average monthly lift to a -0.4% Ytd drop. In a reversal, Mar/Apr lifts made Ytd April slightly positive, +0.1%. Sales fell -2.8% in May so Ytd May & Jun were negative.

Grocery – Their big January lift made  their situation look significantly better in Ytd. However, the Ytd view essentially hid the huge above average lift in April. Note: The current Ytd lift (+2.8%) is 40% above 24 Y/E and just 11% below the annual average.

Health – Monthly & Ytd have a similar pattern – Jan>Feb, below average lifts; Mar>Jun, above avg. The May monthly lift was smaller than Mar/Apr but the June lift was huge, almost double the avg. Ytd is now 97% better than 2024.

Clothing – They had a +5.4% lift in January, 67% above avg. This eliminated the Feb drop in Ytd but the Feb drop changed Mar from above to below average in Ytd. Apr/May Monthly lifts were big. Jun was small but Apr>Jun was above avg Ytd.

Sport/Hobby/Book – They had drops in Jan>Feb. Feb was -6.4%. This turned Ytd all negative. It also hid the possible start of a recovery. Mar>May had increasing monthly lifts. June slowed but Ytd it is -0.4%, much better than -2.8% in 24.

Department Strs – Both reports show drops every month. They have been fading for years. It continues.

Club/SupCtr/Value/$ – They offer value and convenience, the biggest shopping drivers. Some $ stores are struggling but SuperCenters/Clubs are still going pretty strong. Besides the internet, one problem in sustaining strong growth is that they are running out of new customers. The Monthly report had a -0.2% drop in February and a -0.3% drop in March. The Ytd numbers look better. There are no drops, but the June Ytd lift is only +2.6%, 69% below avg and 10% below 24.

Miscellaneous – This is probably our favorite channel because it includes pet stores. They also have great performance. In the Monthly report, only the YOY lifts for Feb & Apr are below avg. All others are above avg. The Ytd report is even better. All months are above avg and June is +7.4%, 72% above average and 37% more than Y/E 24.

Nonstore – They are driven by the internet which has had the strongest growth and became the biggest $ channel in 2020. The Monthly & Ytd reports have similar patterns – all months below avg. June Ytd is +6.4%. That sounds great but it is -37% below average. We’re seeing that it is difficult, if not impossible to maintain double digit growth…forever.

Relevant Retail – Their $ come from a mixture of different spending patterns. They had no drops and both Monthly & Ytd show Mar>Apr growth and a May>Jun pause. Ytd hides the Above avg April lift but shows that the group’s performance in Apr>Jun now exceeds 24…+3.9% to +3.6%. Here is a summary and comparison of Monthly to Ytd for the 11 channels.

 Monthly: Drops: 17; Below Avg Lifts: 30; Above Avg Lifts: 19

Ytd: Drops:22; Below Avg Lifts: 22; Above Avg Lifts: 22

Mon: Jan: $↓:3; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 4; Feb: $↓: 6; ↓Avg:5; ↑Avg: 0; Mar: $↓: 2; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 4

Ytd:   Jan: $↓:3; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 4; Feb: $↓: 4; ↓Avg:5; ↑Avg: 2; Mar: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 3

Mon: Apr: $↓: 2;↓Avg:5; ↑Avg: 4; May: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 4; Jun: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 7; ↑Avg: 3

   Ytd: Apr: $↓: 3; ↓Avg:3; ↑Avg: 5; May: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 4; Jun: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 4 

The key differences between the Monthly & Ytd reports are in the lingering Ytd impact of big drops and lifts. Both views are critically important. Monthly shows what is currently happening in the marketplace and Ytd puts it into perspective. They also show trends over time. Ytd provides an overview while Monthly shows the details fueling the movement.

Inflation negatively affects retail growth both in the short term, with spikes or drops, and in the long term, with cumulative high prices. It can even have an impact before it happens. We saw this with pre-tarifflation “fear” buying. The current retail situation is not good. The YOY lifts vs 24 are generally below the long term avg for most channels. Retail “hit bottom” in Feb but most channels (not Gas Stations or Dept stores) showed improvement in Mar/Apr. The situation got a little worse in May/Jun but Ytd it is stable & better than 24. Inflation is low, but prices are still high. We’ll see…

Finally, for your reference, here are the May and June inflation rates for the CPIs of the retail groups and channels in this report. This includes special aggregate CPIs created with the instruction and guidance of personnel from the US BLS. I also researched data from the last Economic Census to review the share of sales by product category for the various channels to help in selecting what expenditures to include in specific aggregates. Of course, none of these specially created aggregates are 100% accurate but they are much closer than the overall CPI or available aggregates. The data also includes the CPI changes vs 2021 to show cumulative inflation. The chart shows both monthly and Ytd inflation so it can be used as a reference for both measurements in the sales growth report.

Monthly YOY CPI changes of 0.2% or more are highlighted. (Green = lower; Pink = higher)

• In the Big Groups, Restaurant inflation was unchanged. All others got worse.
  • Total Retail flipped from -0.1% deflation to +0.6% inflation
• The monthly inflation also worsened for 10 of 11 smaller channels
  • The biggest change was Furnishings jumped from 0.5% to 3.4%.
  • Department Stores, Miscellaneous and Nonstore all flipped from deflation to inflation
  • For 4 channels, the worsening was just a slower deflation rate
• The 1 smaller channel with improved inflation was Health/Drug – from +0.3% to +0.2%
• Cumulative inflation vs 2021 is still high & stable for most channels, especially Ytd

Inflation seems simple – just compare this year’s prices to the same time last year. In fact, it is more complex. The most important thing to remember is that it is cumulative so even when the YOY rate slows, it can cause a range of issues – selling less product and even a drop in revenue. One impact that is often ignored is slowed $ growth. That is the focus of this report. In order to give an accurate reading of the situation we will include charts for the Big Retail Groups and the “Advance” Relevant Retail Channels. We will also include separate charts for Monthly & Ytd data to better show trends.

First the Jan>May Monthly Report for Big Groups (100% of U.S. Retail $)

We also included the Y/E numbers for 2024, both actual & average, to show our goal – Beat these lifts!

There are things that immediately stand out. One is expected – a BAD February. It is often the low point of the Retail year. In 2025, the lift vs 24 was -78% below avg for Relevant Retail, but Total and all other groups had drops. A positive is January. Gas Stations had their only monthly lift in 25. It was below avg but all other groups had above avg lifts. Now May, only 1 above avg lift – a big turnaround from 4 in April. We also should note Auto. They had a big Mar>Apr lift due to impending tariffs. That ended in May as their YOY lift was -47% below avg.

Restaurants – The February drop was small and the other 4 months had lifts above average. The Mar>May lifts were 6+%, peaking at +6.4% in May, 13.6% above average. If they can continue their post-February performance, they will likely have a great year.

Auto – Except for May, Their pattern is the same as Restaurants but with lifts much more above average, especially in March & April. The Mar & Apr lifts were basically double the average. The 25% tariff was effective 4/3/25. Consumers saved thousands of dollars, but the binge buy ended. The May lift was only +2.4%, -47.3% below avg.

Gas Stations – They are truly in turmoil. Their only plus month was -42% below avg and all drops were bigger than 2024.

Relevant Retail – They do about 60% of Total Retail $ so it’s no surprise that they have a similar pattern. 1 big difference is that they were +1% in Feb – no drop. The Feb/Mar & May lifts were below avg while the Jan & Apr lifts were above avg. Their 23>24 lift was above Total Retail. In May their lift was much better than Total, but their progress stopped.

Total Retail – They had a drop in February, but March was basically equal to the average and Jan & Apr were slightly above average. All non-Feb months had lifts above the 3.0% 23>24 Y/E increase but the May lift was only +3.1%, -34.9% below avg. Their progress has also stopped.

Summary: Jan: $↓: 0; ↑Avg: 4; ↓Avg: 1; Feb: $↓: 4; ↑Avg: 0; ↓Avg: 1; Mar: $↓: 1; ↑Avg: 2; ↓Avg: 2; Apr: $↓: 1; ↑Avg: 4; ↓Avg: 0;                                             May: $↓: 1; ↑Avg: 1; ↓Avg: 3;       TOTAL 5 MONTHS in 2025: $↓: 7; ↑Avg: 11; ↓Avg: 7

Now let’s take a closer look at Relevant Retail. We will report on the 11 channels in our Advance report.

11 Relevant Retail Channels (98% of Ytd Rel Rtl $)

Relevant Retail – Their +3.6% lift in 24 was -22.8% below average. No drops in 25. The lifts for February, March & May were below average but January & April were above average.

Furniture – No drops. Lifts were double the average in January, March, April & May. The big lifts in Mar>May were probably due to fear of skyrocketing prices from impending tariffs.

Electronics/Appliances – They have ongoing high deflation. $ Drops in both January & February. Sales turned positive in Mar>Apr, then dropped in May. Both of the 2 lifts were below average.

Bldg Matl/Garden/Farm – They had the smallest of the 4 drops in 23>24, -0.6%, but the 3rd biggest decrease (of 6) in February, -6.1%. They had lifts in Jan, Mar & Apr but all were below average. This includes their normal Spring lift. The April increase was -77% below average and May saw their 2^nd 2025 drop. Cumulative 19% inflation was probably a factor.

Grocery – Sales were only +2.0% in 24, -36% below average but they surged in January to +5.1%, 63% above average. Growth slowed to 1% or less in Feb>Mar, 70+% below average. However, they had a strong rebound in April. Sales were +5.9% vs 24, 94% above average. The big lift contributed to a smaller May lift of 2.6%, 56% below Apr & 18% below avg.

Health/Drug – Sales were +3.6% in 24, -31% below average. The lift grew slightly in Jan>Feb to 4+% but it was still about -20% below avg. Sales surged in Mar>Apr to +8.8%, 75% above average, then slowed to +6.7% in May, but still 30% above avg

Clothing – 24 $: +2.5%, -19% below avg. Then a strong start to 25, +5.4%, 67% above avg. Sales fell -2.4% in Feb, but in March the lift exceeded the average by 3%. They “took off” in April to +6.7%, more than double the avg lift. The strong lift continued in May, +5.9%, 73% above avg. Like Furniture, the big lifts were likely due to fear of impending tariffs.

Sport/Hobby/Book – They were -2.8% in 24. This trend continued in Jan>Feb, peaking at -6.4% in February. In March they turned slightly positive, +0.4% but this grew in April to +1.5%, -51% below avg & +2.8% in May, just -13% below avg.

Department Strs – It’s difficult to find something positive. They were -4.6% in 24 and had drops Jan>May in 25. The biggest drop was -5.9% in February – no surprise. Sort of good news: 2 drops were 58+% less than the average drop.

Clubs/SupCtrs/Value/$ – They offer Brick ‘n Mortar value and the convenience of 1 stop shopping. They have had strong growth since their creation. COVID further accelerated growth so it is no surprise that all lifts are below avg. They even had small <-0.3% drops in Feb/Mar. Things improved in April, +5.3%, then slowed to +3.8% in May. Jan was best, +5.7%.

Miscellaneous – Pet Stores account for 15+% of this group’s sales. They had below avg lifts in Feb & Apr. The Jan, Mar & May lifts were 80+% above avg and peaked at +8.4% in March. They have the 2^nd best performance of any channel, behind Furniture Stores, and they achieved  it without the benefit of a pre-tarifflation buying surge.

Nonstore – 90% of $ are from internet/mail order (vast majority is internet). The Internet has had strong sales growth since its inception, but it skyrocketed due to COVID’s “stay at home” behavior. They have an average lift of about 10%. Their 24 lift was +8.1%. All lifts in 25 were below this and below average – no surprise. Low: Feb +5.0%; High: Mar +7.2%

SUMMARY

23>24: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 6; ↑Avg: 1

TOTAL 5 MONTHS in 2025: $↓: 15; ↓Avg: 24; ↑Avg: 16

Jan: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 4; Feb: $↓: 6; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 0; Mar: $↓: 2; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 4;

Apr: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 6; ↑Avg: 4; May: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 4;

In the above Summary, regarding Drops and Above Average lifts, green indicates the best and red is the worst. Obviously, the best month is April and the worst is February. However, the biggest positive change occurred in March. 4 channels with drops turned positive. 3 became below average and 1 above average. 3 with below average lifts moved up to above average. The classification of 4 were unchanged so 7 channels fueled the improvement. April was only a little better than March as 1 drop moved up. May was worse than April due to 3 drops. Note: 4 has become the norm in above avg lifts. We also can’t forget January. There was only a slight improvement in the number of positive lifts vs Y/E 24, from 7 to 8 but the number with above average increases rose from 1 to 4 – a significant change. Even with May drops, the situation has improved since hitting bottom in February. The CPI is still low and fear of impending tariffs has had a positive impact.

Now let’s take a different view of the data from the Big Groups and the same 11 channels. Rather than monthly sales, we we will look at Ytd numbers. We will still view them monthly so we can see any trends.

The Ytd numbers are arguably the most important. In December, they become Year-End, which is the most quoted and remembered data in any year. While the monthly data shows what’s happening in the marketplace right now, the Ytd data consolidates the data. This blending extends the impact of big sales spikes – positive or negative. This can be either good or bad. The impact of the big drop in February 25 was lessened by the widespread Above Average January lift. It can also work the other way. The big February drop reduced the positivity of strong lifts in March and April. Overall, the May lift was similar to April, so progress stalled. We’ll begin our analysis with the Big Retail Groups.

The first thing that you notice is that the spending patterns for Restaurants and Relevant & Total Retail are virtually identical. All groups had January lifts and all, but Gas Stations were Above Average. However, only Auto had Above Average lifts in Mar>May. Also, only Gas Stations had any sales drops. Overall, the improvement paused in May.

Restaurants – Sales for 24 were +5.2%, -7% below average. They flipped in January as the lift vs last year grew to +5.5%, 5.4% above average. The lift radically slowed in February to +2.4%, -57% below average. The situation steadily improved in March/April and even slightly in May as the YOY increase grew to +4.7%, -15% below average.

Auto – Sales were +2.3% in 24, -47% below avg and the worst “positive” performance of any group. They turned it around in January with a +5.8% lift, 32% above avg. The lift dropped to +2.0% in February, -55.5% below avg and the smallest lift of any positive big group. Due to pre-tarifflation buying the lift took off in Mar/Apr, reaching +5.9% in April, 33% above avg. In May the surge ended, and the lift fell to 5.1%. They are the only Group with Feb>May above avg lifts.

Gas Stations – Whether you look at the data monthly or Ytd, they are doing bad. The May Ytd sales drop of -4.2% is even 45% worse than the -2.9% at Y/E 24. That does not bode well for 2025.

Relevant Retail – Except for January, +5.0%, they seem to be stuck in the 3% lift range. Thanks to an Above avg monthly  lift, April Ytd, +3.9%, did finally exceed the +3.6% of 2024. The lift stayed at +3.9% in May, but this was -17.4% below the monthly avg. Their slow, steady Mar>Apr progress paused in May.

Total Retail – The pattern matches Relevant Retail but the YOY changes for all but January are smaller and in May their lift slowed. With similar averages, Total has bigger disparities. Total includes Auto & Gas Stations which have had extreme lifts & drops. Their steady Mar>Apr progress also paused in May, but their Ytd lift has been above 24 since March.

Summary and Comparison of Monthly to Ytd

                                                                                Monthly: Drops: 7; Below Avg Lifts:  7; Above Avg Lifts: 11

                                                                                         Ytd: Drops: 4; Below Avg Lifts: 14; Above Avg Lifts:  7

                                          Mon: Jan: $↓: 0; ↓Avg: 1; ↑Avg: 4; Feb: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 1; ↑Avg: 0; Mar: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 2; ↑Avg: 2

                                          Ytd:   Jan: $↓: 0; ↓Avg: 1; ↑Avg: 4; Feb: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 0; Mar: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1

                                         Mon: Apr: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 0; ↑Avg: 4; May: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1

                                         Ytd:   Apr: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1; May: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1

January  Monthly & Ytd are the same. The highlights in the summary clearly show that the Ytd report levels the Feb>May data. The situation doesn’t look good Ytd but it is better than 2024 for all but Gas Stations. Both reports show that it was improving for all but Gas Stations…until May.

Now, Let’s look at Ytd Sales for Key Relevant Retail Channels

The Ytd chart looks a little more consistent than the Monthly chart. This is true. Ytd extends the impact of big lifts or drops. The result is that the Ytd version has 20.8% less Below Avg lifts (middle ground), but 20% more Drops & 12.5% more Above Avg lifts. Ytd also has 3 channels that had drops every month in 2025. Monthly has only 1. However, Ytd has 2 channels with Above Average lifts every month. Monthly has none. It’s a complex situation. Let’s get into the specifics.

Furniture Stores – They are going strong. Their huge January lift pushed the February Ytd lift from below to above avg. Now, all months are above average. Tarifflation fear caused binge buying in Mar>May so the current lift is double the avg.

Electronics/Appliance – Ytd they are all negative. This version hides Mar>Apr lifts. The positive impact in the Ytd chart was that their YOY drop slowed from -5.0% in February to -1.9% in May.

Bldg Matl/Garden/Farm – Their big February drop turned March from a below average monthly lift to a -0.4% Ytd drop. In a reversal, Mar/Apr lifts made Ytd April minimally positive, +0.02%. Then sales fell -3.0% in May.

Grocery – Their big January lift made  their situation look significantly better in Ytd. However, it effectively hid the above average lift in April. Note: The current Ytd lift (+3.0%) is 50% above 24 Y/E and just 3.5% below the annual average.

Health – Monthly & Ytd have a similar pattern – Jan>Feb, below average lifts; Mar>May, above avg. However, the May Monthly lift was not as big as Mar>Apr but it was still enough to increase May Ytd.

Clothing – They had a +5.4% lift in January, 67% above avg. This eliminated the February drop in Ytd but the February drop changed Mar from above to below average in Ytd. Apr/May Monthly lifts were big and pushed both above avg Ytd.

Sport/Hobby/Book – They had drops in Jan>Feb. Feb was -6.4%. This turned Ytd all negative. It also hid the possible start of a recovery. Mar>May had increasing monthly lifts. All were below avg but May was only -13% less.

Department Strs – Both reports show drops every month. They have been fading for years. It continues.

Club/SupCtr/Value/$ – They offer value and convenience, the biggest shopping drivers. Some $ stores are struggling but SuperCenters/Clubs are still going pretty strong. Besides the internet, one problem in sustaining strong growth is that they are running out of new customers. The Monthly report had a -0.2% drop in February and a -0.3% drop in March. The Ytd numbers look better. There are no drops, but the May Ytd lift is only +2.8%, 67% below average.

Miscellaneous – This is probably our favorite channel because it includes pet stores. They also have great performance. In the Monthly report, only the YOY lifts for February and April are below avg. All other months are above avg. The Ytd report is even better. All months are above average and May is +6.1%, 41% above average and 13% more than Y/E 24.

Nonstore – They are driven by the internet which has had the strongest growth and became the biggest $ channel in 2020. The Monthly & Ytd reports have similar patterns – all months below avg. May Ytd is +6.4%. That sounds great but it is -36% below average. We’re seeing that it is difficult, if not impossible to maintain double digit growth…forever.

Relevant Retail – Their $ come from a mixture of different spending patterns. They had no drops and both Monthly & Ytd show Mar>Apr growth and a May pause. Ytd hides the Above avg April lift, but it shows that the group’s performance in Apr/May now exceeds 2024…+3.9% to +3.6%. Here is a summary and comparison of Monthly to Ytd for the 11 channels.

                                                        Monthly: Drops: 15; Below Avg Lifts: 24; Above Avg Lifts: 16

                                                                 Ytd: Drops: 18; Below Avg Lifts: 19; Above Avg Lifts:  18

                           Mon: Jan: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 4; Feb: $↓: 6; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 0; Mar: $↓: 2; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 4

                           Ytd:   Jan: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 4; Feb: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 2; Mar: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 3

                          Mon: Apr: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 6; ↑Avg: 4; May: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 4

                          Ytd:   Apr: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 5; May: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 4

The key differences between the Monthly & Ytd reports are in the lingering Ytd impact of big drops and lifts. Both views are critically important. Monthly shows what is currently happening in the marketplace and Ytd puts it into perspective. They also show trends over time. Ytd provides an overview while Monthly shows the details fueling the movement.

Inflation negatively affects retail growth both in the short term, with spikes or drops, and in the long term, with cumulative high prices. It can even have an impact before it happens. We are seeing this with pre-tarifflation “fear” buying. The current retail situation is not good. The YOY lifts vs 2024 are generally below the long term average for most channels. Retail “hit bottom” in February but most channels (not Gas Stations or Dept stores) showed improvement in Mar/Apr. The situation got worse in May due to more drops but Ytd it is better than 24. Inflation is low with some deflation, but prices are still high. We’ll see what happens.

Finally, for your reference, here are the April and May inflation rates for the CPIs of the retail groups and channels in this report. This includes special aggregate CPIs created with the instruction and guidance of personnel from the US BLS. I also researched data from the last Economic Census to review the share of sales by product category for the various channels to help in selecting what expenditures to include in specific aggregates. Of course, none of these specially created aggregates are 100% accurate but they are much closer than the overall CPI or available aggregates. The data also includes the CPI changes vs 2021 to show cumulative inflation. The chart shows both monthly and Ytd inflation so it can be used as a reference for both measurements in the sales growth report.

Monthly YOY CPI changes of 0.2% or more are highlighted. (Green = lower; Pink = higher)

• You see that monthly inflation worsen for 10 channels
  • The most significant change was Furnishings flipped from -0.7% deflation to +0.5% inflation
  • For 5 channels, the worsening was just a slower deflation rate
• Of the 3 channels with improved inflation
  • 2 had increased deflation
  • The biggest improvement was in Health/Personal Care where inflation slowed to 0.3% from 1.0%
• Cumulative inflation vs 2021 is still high & stable for most channels, especially Ytd