Archive for category: Pet Market Distribution Channels

In February, YOY Commodities’ inflation rose slightly to 1.2% from 1.0%. Even with a low inflation rate, high cumulative inflation vs 21 can still impact consumer spending and slow $ales growth.  We saw evidence of this in February. Total Retail $ were +3.6% vs 25, 21.8% below the average 92>25 lift and Relevant Retail was +3.8%, still -18.5% below the February average. The situation is complex and there is still a long road to full recovery. We’ll continue to track the retail market with data from 2 reports provided by the Census Bureau and factor in a targeted CPI.

The Census Bureau Reports are the Monthly and the Advance Retail Sales Reports. Both are derived from sales data gathered from retailers across the U.S. and are published monthly at the same time. The Advance Report has a smaller sample size so it can be published quickly – normally, 2 weeks after month end. The Monthly Report includes data from all respondents, so it takes longer to compile the data – about 6 weeks. Although the sample size for the Advance report is smaller, the results over the years have proven it to be statistically accurate with the Monthly reports. The biggest difference is that the full sample in the Monthly report allows us to “drill” a little deeper into the retail channels.

We will begin with the January Monthly Report and then go to the February Advance Report. Our focus is comparing to last year but also 21 & 19. We’ll show both actual and the “real” change in sales as we factor inflation into the data.

Both reports include the following:     (Note: January monthly data = Ytd)

• Total Retail, Restaurants, Auto, Gas Stations and Relevant Retail (removing Restaurants, Auto and Gas)
• Individual Channel Data – This is more detailed in the Monthly reports, and we’ll focus on Pet Relevant Channels.

The data will be presented in detailed charts to facilitate visual comparison between groups/channels. The charts will show 11 separate measurements. To save space they will be displayed in a stacked bar format for the channel charts.

• Current Month change – % & $ vs previous month
• Current Month change – % & $ vs same month last year and vs 2021.
  • Current Month Real change vs last year and vs 2021 – % factoring in inflation
• Current Ytd change – % & $ for this year vs last year, 2021 & 2019.
  • Current Ytd Real change % for this year vs last year and vs 2021 and 2019
• Monthly & Ytd $ & CPIs for this year vs last year and vs 2021 which are targeted by channel will also be shown. (CPI Details are at the end of the report)

First, the January Monthly. All were down from December but there were only 2 actual sales drops – monthly/ytd vs 25 in Gas Stations. We should note: Gas Stations are still selling a little more product than in 2019. Also, Relevant Retail is all positive again. They have been all positive in 20 of the last 22 months.            ($ are Not Seasonally Adjusted)

The December Monthly is $0.3B less than the Advance report. Restaurants: -$0.1B; Auto: +$0.4B; Gas Stations: +$0.5B; Relevant Retail: -$1.3B. Relevant Retail was the driver in the $ales drop vs December, but all were down. A Dec>Jan decrease in Total Retail  has happened every year since 1992. However, the 17.4% drop was 17.5% less than average. There were 2 drops in actual sales – Monthly/Ytd vs 25 for Gas Stations. There were no “real” sales drops, the same as December. All but Gas Stations were all positive. Restaurants still have the biggest increases vs 21 & 19 but Relevant Retail stayed at the top of “real” performance vs 2019. However, only 53.8% of their growth is real.

Now, let’s see how some Key Pet Relevant channels did in January in the Stacked Bar Graph Format

Overall– All 11 were down from December. Vs Jan 25, 9 were actually and 6 “really” up. Vs Jan 21, 10 were up but only 5 were real lifts. Vs 2019, Dept Strs & Off/Gift/Souv were actually & really down, but Home/Hdw was also really down.

• Building Material Stores – The pandemic focus on home has produced $ growth of 27.2% since 2019. Prices for the group have inflated 26.3% from 21 and 28.9% from 2019, which is having an impact. HomeCtr/Hdwe Sales vs Dec were -11.0% & -17.6% for Farm Stores. Vs other years, HomCtr/Hdwe are actually up & really down for all. Farm stores are actually up for all, but their Real $ were down vs 25 & 21. Bldg/Mat group’s 19>26 real growth was -1.3%. (avg -0.2%) HomeCtr/Hdwe: Jan: 2.0%; Avg 19>26 Growth: 3.2%, Real: -0.5%; Farm: Jan: +5.3%; Avg: 5.2%, Real: 1.5%
• Food & Drug – Both are essential. Except for the COVID food binge, they tend to have smaller changes in $. Vs Dec: Supermarkets: -3.4%; Drug: -14.2%. In terms of inflation, the Groceries rate is 7 times higher than Drug/Med products. Drug Stores are positive in all measurements and 64.0% of their 2019>26 growth is real. Supermarkets’ actual $ are up in all comparisons, but they are only “really” up vs 2019 and only 9.2% of their 19>26 increase is real growth. Supermarkets: Jan: +1.8%; Avg 19>26: +4.5%, Real: +0.5%; Drug Stores: Jan: +1.2%; Avg: +4.3%, Real: +2.9%.
• Sporting Goods Stores – They also benefited from the pandemic in that consumers turned to self-entertainment, especially sports & outdoor activities. Sales are -45.3% from Dec, but their only negatives are actual & real vs 21. Prices stopped deflating vs last year. Deflation started in April 23 and was a big change from +1.1% in 22>23 & +7.9% in 21>22. This caused 74% of their 48% lift since 2019 to be real. Jan: 4.1%; Avg 19>26: +5.7%; Real: +4.4%
• Gen Mdse Stores – Sales were -23.1% vs Dec. All YOY comparisons were up for $ Strs & SupCtr/Clubs. Dept Stores are negative in all comparisons but actual vs Jan 21. Their Actual sales are even -33.6% from 19 (Real: -40.6%). The other channels have an average of 46.9% in real growth. SupCtr/Club: Jan:+3.5%; Avg 19>26: 5.2%, Real: 2.6%; $/Value Strs: Jan: +5.6%; Avg: +5.6%, Real: +3.0%; Dept. Strs: Jan: -9.8%; Avg: -5.7%, Real: -7.2%.
• Office, Gift & Souvenir Stores– Sales fell -35.8% from Dec. They are actually up vs Jan 21. All others are down. Their recovery started late. It was slowly restarting in Jun/Jul, but their progress had slowed. It took off in Oct, slowed in Nov, grew in Dec, then slowed in Jan. Recovery takes some time. Jan: -2.7%; Avg Growth Rate: -0.9%, Real: -2.4%
• Internet/Mail Order – Sales are -25.9% from Dec to $116.1B, a Jan record. All YOY measurements are positive, but their YOY growth, +7.8%, is only 56.5% of their average since 2019. However, 82.3% of their 146.8% growth since 2019 is real. Jan: +7.8%; Avg Growth: +13.8%, Real: +12.0%. As expected, they are by far the growth leader since 2019.
• A/O Miscellaneous – Pet Stores are 22>24% of total $. In May 2020 they began their recovery which reached $100B for the 1^st time in 21. In 22 their $ dipped in Jan, Jul, Sep>Nov, rose Dec, fell Jan>Feb 23, grew Mar>May, fell Jun>Aug, rose Sep>Nov, fell Dec>Jan 24, grew Feb>May, fell Jun>Sep, grew Oct, fell Nov, rose Dec, fell Jan>Feb, grew Mar>May, fell Jun>Sep, rose Oct, fell Nov, rose Dec, fell Jan 26. All comparisons are positive, and they are #2 in the increase vs 2019 but now #1 vs 2021. Also, 78.7% of their 97.6% growth since 2019 is real. Jan: +12.6%; Avg 19>26: 10.2%, Real: +8.5%

Jan had its usual drop vs Dec, but the Rel Retl drop was 24% below avg. However, all small channels were down. The YOY lift vs 25 was below avg for Total: -36% & Relevant Retl: -15%, but 4 big groups & 9 smaller channels had lifts. Also, prices are only deflating in Auto & Gas Stations, but cumulative inflation has an impact, as only 5 channels were really up vs Jan 21. The Recovery is slow. In Feb, the commodities CPI rose from 1.0% in Jan to 1.2%. Let’s see if it impacts Retail.

Jan>Feb sales were down for all but Auto. A Jan>Feb Total Retail drop has happened in 65% of the years since 1992. The -3.1% drop is 4.3 times the -0.7% avg. BTW: The -5.3% Jan>Feb drop by Relevant Retail was 2.3 times bigger than their -2.3% avg. There were 2 YOY $ drops, the same as Jan. 4 Big Groups were up vs 25 but the Total Retail lift of 3.6% vs Feb 25 was 22% below their +4.6% 92>25 avg. Plus, the Relevant Retail 3.8% increase vs Feb 25 was 18.5% below their +4.6% avg. Inflation is still a factor. The CPI for all commodities rose to 1.2% from 1.0% vs last year but it is still +19.5% vs 21. There is some good “real” news. Like the Jan Monthly, no “real” measurement was down. Plus, Gas Stations are again selling more Gas than in 2019. Also, 4 Big Groups are again all positive, the same as Dec/Jan. Note: Relevant Retail has now been all positive in 21 of the last 23 months.

Overall Inflation Reality– The Total Retail CPI rose to only 1.2% but the $ lift vs 25 was still 22% below avg. The Restaurant CPI slowed to +3.8% but their $ lift was still 6% below avg. Gas prices rose to -5.5%. They are still in turmoil. Auto inflation is -0.9% vs 25 but +18.6% vs 21. Sales were +3.7% vs 25, 13.4% below their 4.3% avg change. Inflation rose to 2.2% for Relevant Retail and their lift was 18.5% below avg, but they are again all positive. Progress has slowed in 2026.

Total Retail – Since Jun 20, every month but Apr 23, Jun 24 & Feb 25 has set a monthly $ales record. In 2023>26, Sales got on a roller coaster. Up Jul>Aug, down Sep, up Oct>Dec, down Jan 24, up Feb>Mar, down April, up May, down Jun, up Jul>Aug, down Sep, up Oct>Dec, down Jan>Feb 25, up Mar, down Apr, up May, down Jun, up Jul>Aug, down Sep, up Oct, down Nov, up Dec, down Jan>Feb. Prices are 1.2% and YOY $ are +3.6%, 22% below avg. 43% of 19>26 growth is real. Inflation slowed but cumulative inflation is still impacting sales. Growth: 25>26: 3.3%; Avg 19>26: +6.0%, Real: +2.9%.

Restaurants – They were hit hard by the pandemic and didn’t begin recovery until March 2021. However, they have had strong growth since then, exceeding $1T for the 1^st time in 2023. February $ are up vs 25 and they have the biggest lifts vs 21 & 19. Inflation slowed to 3.8% vs last year, but it is +29.8% vs 21 and +35.1% vs 19. Their 5.0% YOY lift is 6% below their +5.4% 92>25 avg. They are all positive again, but just 34% of their 65% growth since 2019 is real. They fell from 3^rd  to 4^th in performance. Recovery started late but inflation started early. Growth: 5.0%; Avg 19>26: +7.4%, Real: +2.9%.They just account for 13.8% of Total Retail $, but their strong growth has helped Total Retail.

Auto (Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers) – They overcame the stay-at-home attitude with great deals and advertising. They finished 2020 up 1% vs 2019 and hit a record $1.48T in 2021 but much was due to high inflation. In 22, sales got on a rollercoaster. Inflation started to drop mid-year, but it caused 4 down months in actual $. Their YE real 22 sales numbers were even worse, -8.2% vs 21 and -8.9% vs 19. 23 started a sales rollercoaster but the $ hit a record, $1.595T. $ fell in Jan 24, grew Feb>Mar, fell Apr, grew May, fell June, grew Jul>Aug, fell Sep, grew Oct, fell Nov, grew Dec, fell Jan>Feb 25, grew Mar, fell Apr>Jun, rose Jul>Aug, fell Sep, rose Oct, fell Nov, rose Dec, fell Jan, rose Feb. Feb $ were +3.7% vs 25, below the 4.3% avg. They are again all positive but just 36% of 19>26 growth is real. Growth: 2.0%; Avg 19>26: +5.2%, Real: +2.1%

Gas Stations – Gas Stations were hit hard by “stay at home”. They started recovery in Mar 21, and inflation began. Sales got on a rollercoaster in 22 but set a record, $583B. Inflation started to slow in Aug and prices slightly deflated in Dec & Feb 23, then strongly fell in Mar>Jul to -20.2%. In Sep they were +2.7% but began deflating to -4.2% in Feb 24. In Mar>May $ grew, fell Jun, rose July, fell Aug/Sep, rose Oct, fell Nov>Feb 25, rose Mar>May, fell Jun, rose Jul, fell Aug>Oct, up Nov, fell Dec>Jan, rose Feb. Feb $ vs 25: -0.7% (4.3% avg). Only down vs 25. Real $ vs 19 are again positive. Growth: -1.3%; Avg 19>26:+3.5%, Real: +0.3%. They show the cumulative impact of inflation can be positive & negative.

Relevant Retail – Less Auto, Gas and Restaurants– They account for ≈60% of Total Retail $ in a variety of channels. Their only down month until Feb 25 was Apr 20, and they led the way in Retail’s recovery. Sales got on a roller coaster in 22, but all months set new records with Dec reaching a new all-time high, $481B, and an annual record of $4.81T. In 23, the roller coaster continued. A Dec lift set a new monthly record of $494.7B & an annual record of $4.997T. $ales got back on the roller coaster in 24. The ride continued as $ rose Oct>Jan 25, fell Feb, rose Mar>May, fell Jun, rose Jul, fell Aug>Sep, rose Oct>Dec, fell Jan>Feb 26. The Feb 3.8% YOY lift is 18.5% below their 92>25 avg of +4.6%, but they are all positive again and 53.1% of their 53.5% 19>26 growth is real, again #1 in Big Group performance. Growth: 3.9%; Avg 19>26: +6.3%, Real: +3.6%. In 2024 their inflation rate fell from 3.2% to 0.1%. It rose in 25 to 1.8% in Sep then slowed to 1.5% in Oct>Nov, rose to 2.0% in Dec>Jan & 2.2% in Feb. YOY Inflation is low, but its cumulative impact can slow growth.

YOY inflation is low, but cumulative & impending lifts can affect sales. In Feb, 2 actual YOY $ comparison were negative, the same as Dec/Jan. In Oct>Nov, there was 1 real drop. That fell to 0 in Dec>Feb. In Oct, all were up vs last year with below avg lifts. In Nov only Auto was down but the lifts were all below avg. In Dec, all were up and Relevant Retl’s lift was above avg. In Jan, 3 lifts, all below avg. In Feb, 4 lifts, all below avg. In Oct/Nov, 3 big groups were all positive. In Dec, there were 4, which has continued through Feb. Relevant Retail has now been all positive in 21 of 23 months. As expected, Feb Total Retail sales fell vs Jan, but the -3.1% drop was 4.3 times more than the -0.7% avg. Recovery is still slow.

Here’s a more detailed look at February by Key Channels in the Stacked Bar Graph Format

• Relevant Retail: Ytd Growth: +3.9%; Avg 19>26: +6.3%; Real: 3.6%. % Real Growth: 53.1%. 9 of 11 were down from Jan. Vs Feb 25: 8 were up, 6 Real. Vs Feb 21: 11 were up; 7 Real. Vs 19: Dept Stores were down & real Furniture Stores.
• All Department Stores – This group was struggling before the pandemic hit them hard. They began recovery in March 21. Sales are +18.1% from Jan but all YOY measurements but actual vs 21 are negative. Their -6.0% Feb YOY drop is 36% more than their -4.4% avg. Ytd Growth: -7.8%; Avg 19>26: -5.6%; Real: -7.2%. % Real growth: None
• Club/SuprCtr/$- They fueled a big part of the recovery because they focus on value which has broad consumer appeal. $ales are -6.7% from Jan, but they are up in all comparisons but real vs Feb 25. Their 1.4% YOY Feb lift is -83% below their 92>25 avg of +8.2%. Ytd Growth: 2.6%; Avg 19>26: +5.1%; Real: 2.4%. % Real Growth: 43.9%
• Grocery- They depend on frequent purchases, so their changes are usually less radical. $ales are -10.5% from Jan. They are actually down vs Feb 25 but really down for all but vs 2019. Cumulative inflation has hit them hard. Their -0.2% YOY Feb drop is a big change from a +3.0% avg. Ytd Growth: 0.8%; Avg 19>26: +4.4%; Real: 0.4%. % Real Growth: 7.4%
• Health/Drug Stores – Many stores are essential, but consumers visit less frequently than Grocery stores. $ are -3.7% from Jan, but they are positive in all YOY comparisons. Inflation has been relatively low, so it is surprising that their +2.5% YOY lift vs Feb 25 is 49.4% below avg. Ytd Growth: 1.8 %; Avg 19>26: +4.3%; Real: 2.8%. % Real Growth: 62.9 %
• Clothing and Accessories – Clothes mattered less if you stayed home. That changed in March 2021 with strong growth through 2022. Sales are +7.8% from Jan and positive in all YOY measurements. $ales are +7.0% vs Feb 25, 2.2 times more than their 3.2% avg. Ytd Growth: 6.2%; Avg 19>26: +3.6%; Real: 2.6%. % Real Growth: 68.4%.
• Home Furnishings – In mid-2020 consumers’ focus turned to their homes and furniture became a priority. Inflation is up to 4.5% in Feb. $ are -1.5% from Jan and are only actually up vs 2019 & vs Feb 21. YOY vs Feb 25, they are -5.6%, far below their 3.1% avg lift. Ytd Growth: -4.8%; Avg 19>26:+2.2%; Real: -0.2%. % Real Growth: None.
• Electronic & Appliances – They have had many issues. Sales fell in Apr>May of 2020 and didn’t reach 2019 levels until March 21. $ are -5.5% from Jan but they are up in all comparisons. Strong deflation made real sales very high. Sales are +4.9% vs Feb 25, 2.4 times above the 2.1% avg. Ytd Growth: 4.6%; Avg 19>26: 0.7%; Real: 3.9%. % Real Growth: 100+%
• Building Material, Farm & Garden & Hardware – They truly benefited from the consumers’ focus on home. In 2022 the lift slowed as inflation grew to double digits. Prices turned up again in Apr>Sep 25, dropped Oct/Nov, rose Dec/Jan to 5.6%, fell to 4.8% in Feb. Sales are -3.0% from Jan but are actually up and really down for all YOYs but 2019. Sales vs Feb 25 were +3.7%, 4.4% below their 3.9% Avg. Ytd Growth: 3.1%; Avg 19>26: 4.0%; Real: 0.4%. % Real Growth: 8.5%
• Sporting Goods, Hobby and Book Stores – Consumers turned their attention to recreation and Sporting Goods stores sales took off. Book & Hobby Stores recovered more slowly. They have been on a sales roller coaster since June 24 and $ are -3.3% from Jan. All other comparisons are positive. YOY Sales vs Feb 25 are +11.5%, 4 times more than their 2.8% avg. Ytd Growth: +9.2%; Avg 19>26: +4.6%; Real: 3.8%. % Real Growth: 80.6%.
• All Miscellaneous Stores – Pet Stores have been a key part of the strong and growing recovery of this group. They finished 2020 at +0.9% but sales took off in March 21 and have continued to grow. Sales are -2.0% vs Jan, but positive in all comparisons. They are 2^nd in the % increase vs 19 & vs 21. Plus, their 11.3% YOY Jan lift is 2.7 times more than their 92>25 avg of +4.1%. Ytd Growth: +11.6%; Avg 19>26: +7.9%; Real: 6.1%. % Real Growth: 73.3%.
• NonStore Retailers – 90% of their $ comes from Internet/Mail Order/TV. The pandemic accelerated online spending. They ended 2020 +21.4%. The growth continued in 2021 as sales exceeded $100B for the 1^st time and they broke the $1 Trillion barrier. $ are -5.8% from Jan and their YOY lift of 7.5% is -22.8% below the 9.7% avg. However, they are positive in all comparisons. Ytd Growth: 7.3%; Avg 19>26: +12.7%; Real: 10.8%. % Real Growth: 80.4%.

Recap – Driven by Relevant Retail, the Pandemic recovery was widespread by Y/E 21. In 22 we were hit with the strongest inflation in 40 years. Inflation has slowed considerably from its Jun 22 peak, but only 1 smaller channel is deflating. Deflation helps, but cumulative inflation can still have a negative impact – slowed YOY growth and even sales drops. As expected, $ fell from Jan for 9 of 11 channels. 7 of the 9 drops were above avg – Not Good! The biggest concern is still YOY drops and smaller lifts. Relevant Retail’s 3.8% lift vs Feb 25 was 18.5% below avg. 8 channels had a YOY lift vs last year, 1 less than Jan. 4 of the 8 lifts were above avg, 1 more than Jan, the same as Dec but far less than 7 in Oct. There are multiple factors slowing growth, but the major one is high prices from cumulative inflation. December is still the biggest retail month of year, and February is usually the worst. Total & Relevant Retail had the most sales in history for both months. The Feb Yoy lift was -35% below avg for Total and -18.5% below for Relevant. The situation is a little better than January as 7 of 11 channels (8 in Jan) had a below avg lift or a drop vs Feb 25. We’ll see what happens.

Here are the Jan/Feb inflation rates for the CPIs used to calculate the impact of inflation on retail groups and channels. This includes special aggregate CPIs created with the instruction and guidance of the US BLS. I also researched data from the last Economic Census to review the share of sales by product category for the various channels to help in selecting what expenditures to include in specific aggregates. Of course, none of these specially created aggregates are 100% accurate but they are much closer than the overall CPI or available aggregates. The data includes the CPI changes vs 21 to show cumulative inflation. Note: Jan Monthly = Ytd

Monthly YOY CPI changes of 0.2% or more are highlighted. (Green = lower; Pink = higher)

Here are some answers to some obvious questions. Note: Product Prices rose but changes by Channel were mixed.

1. Why is the group for Nonstore different from the Internet?
   • Non-store is not all internet. It also includes Fuel Oil Dealers, the non-motor fuel Energy Commodity.
2. Why is there no Food at home included in Nonstore or Internet
   • Online Grocery purchasing is becoming popular, but almost all is from companies whose major business is brick ‘n mortar. These online sales are recorded under their primary channel.
3. 5 Channels have the same CPI aggregate but represent a variety of business types.
   • They also have a wide range of product types. Rather than try to build aggregates of a multitude of small expenditure categories, it seemed better to eliminate the biggest, influential groups that they don’t sell. This method is not perfect, but it is certainly closer than any existing aggregate.
4. Why are Grocery and Supermarkets only tied to the Grocery CPI?
   • According to the Economic Census, 76% of their sales comes from Grocery products. Grocery Products are the driver. The balance of their sales comes from a collection of a multitude of categories.
5. What about Drug/Health Stores only being tied to Medical Commodities.
   • An answer similar to the one for Grocery/Supermarkets. However, in this case Medical Commodities account for over 80% of these stores’ total sales.
6. Why do SuperCtrs/Clubs and $ Stores have the same CPI
   • While the Big Stores sell much more fresh groceries, Groceries account for ¼ of $ Store sales. Both Channels generally offer most of the same product categories, but the actual product mix is different.

Due to the shutdown, no CPIs were produced in Oct, but we were able to produce estimates. In Nov/Dec the situation was back to business as usual. Total Retail $ were +3.8% vs 24, 12.1% below their Dec avg (4.3%). Relevant Retail $ were +4.3% vs 24, 7.1% above the 4.0% avg. There are other factors besides the CPI impacting sales, including high cumulative inflation and tarifflation binge buying. It is a complex situation. YOY drops & the size of sales lifts are still concerning.

We’ll continue to track the retail market with data from 2 reports provided by the Census Bureau and then factor in a targeted CPI. The reports are the Monthly and the Advance Retail Sales Reports. Both are derived from sales data gathered from retailers across the U.S. and are published monthly at the same time. They are still about a month late due to the shutdown. The Monthly Report includes data from all respondents, so it takes longer to compile. Although the sample size for the Advance report is smaller, the results have proven it to be statistically accurate with the Monthly. The Advance Report has a smaller sample size so it can be published quickly. The biggest difference is that the full sample in the Monthly report allows us to “drill” a little deeper into the channels.

We will begin with the November Monthly Report and then go to the December Advance Report. Our focus is comparing to last year but also 21 & 19. We’ll show both actual and the “real” change in sales as we factor inflation into the data.

Both reports normally include the following:

• Total Retail, Restaurants, Auto, Gas Stations and Relevant Retail (removing Restaurants, Auto and Gas)
• Individual Channel Data – This is more detailed in the Monthly reports, and we’ll focus on Pet Relevant Channels.

The data will be presented in detailed charts to facilitate visual comparison between groups/channels. The charts will show 11 separate measurements. To save space they will be displayed in a stacked bar format for the channel charts.

• Current Month change – % & $ vs previous month
• Current Month change – % & $ vs same month last year and vs 2021.
  • Current Month Real change vs last year and vs 2021 – % factoring in inflation
• Current Ytd change – % & $ for this year vs last year, 2021 & 2019. (Note: Dec Ytd data is Year-end)
  • Current Ytd Real change % for this year vs last year and vs 2021 and 2019
• Monthly & Ytd $ & CPIs for this year vs last year and vs 2021 which are targeted by channel will also be shown. (CPI Details are at the end of the report)

First, the November Monthly. All but Relevant Retail were down from Oct and there were 3 actual YOY sales drops. Note: Gas Stations are still selling more product than in 2019. 3 groups are again “all positive”, down from 4 in Aug>Sep. Relevant Retail has been all positive in 21 of the last 25 months and in 17 of the last 19. ($ are Not Seasonally Adjusted)

The Nov Monthly is $0.7B less than the Advance report. Restaurants: +$0.3B; Auto: +$0.3B; Gas Stations: +$0.2B; Relevant Retail: -$1.4B. All but Relevant were down from Oct. An Oct>Nov drop in Total Retail  has only happened in 26% of the years since 1992. The avg. is +1.2%. There were 3 YOY drops in actual sales, the most in 2025. There was 1 “real” sales drop, the same as Oct, but up from none in Aug/Sep and far less than the 5 in Mar. 3 groups were again “all positive”, down from 4 in Aug/Sep, but equal to Mar>Jul. Restaurants still have the biggest increases vs 21 & 19 but Relevant Retl stayed at the top of “real” performance vs 2019. However, only 42.3% of their growth is real.

Now, let’s see how some Key Pet Relevant channels did in November (83% of Nov Ytd Rel Retl $)

Overall– 5 of 11 were up from Oct. Vs Nov 24, 10 were actually up & 7 were “really” up. Vs Nov 21, 7 were up but only 5 were real increases. Vs 2019, Only Dept Strs were actually & really down, but Off/Gift/Souv were also really down.

• Building Material Stores – The pandemic focus on home has produced sales growth of 29.8% since 2019. Prices for the Bldg/Matl group have inflated 18.3% from 21 and 24.0% from 2019 which is having an impact. Sales vs Oct were -9.9% for HomeCtr/Hdwe and -10.5% for Farm Stores. Vs other years, Farm stores are actually up for all, but their Real $ were down vs 21. HomCtr/Hdwe are only actually and really up vs 2019. Plus, only 16% of the Bldg Materials group’s 19>25 lift was real. HomeCtr/Hdwe: Ytd: -3.0%; Avg 19>25 Growth: 4.1%, Real: 0.4%; Farm: Ytd: +4.3%; Avg: 6.3%, Real: 2.6%
• Food & Drug – Both are essential. Except for the COVID food binge, they tend to have smaller changes in $. Vs: Oct Supermarkets: -0.2%; Drug: -9.5%. In terms of inflation, the Groceries rate is 73% higher than Drug/Med products. Drug Stores are positive in all measurements and 70.5% of their 2019>25 growth is real. Supermarkets’ actual $ are up in all comparisons. They are only “really” down monthly and Ytd vs 21. However, only 9% of their 19>25 increase is real growth. Supermarkets: Ytd: +3.3%; Avg 19>25: +4.9%, Real: +0.5%; Drug Stores: Ytd: +7.9%; Avg: +5.9%, Real: +4.4%.
• Sporting Goods Stores – They also benefited from the pandemic in that consumers turned to self-entertainment, especially sports & outdoor activities. Sales are +8.2% from Oct, and their only positives are actual & real vs Nov 24 & 2019, plus real Ytd vs 24. Prices stopped deflating vs 24. Deflation started in April 23 and was a big change from +1.1% in 22>23 & +7.9% in 21>22. This caused 68% of their 32% lift since 19 to be real. Ytd: -2.0%; Avg 19>25: +4.8%; Real: +3.4%
• Gen Mdse Stores – Sales were +4.9% vs Oct. Except for real vs 24 for clubs, all YOY $, actual & real were up for $ Stores and SupCtr/Clubs. Dept Stores are negative in all comparisons but vs Nov 24. Their Actual sales are even -28.7% from 19 (Real: -35.7%). The other channels have an average of 41.4% in real growth. SupCtr/Club: Ytd: +2.4%; Avg 19>25: 5.0%, Real: 2.2%; $/Value Strs: Ytd: +2.0%; Avg: +5.5%, Real: +2.7%; Dept. Strs: Ytd: -1.5%; Avg: -5.5%, Real: -7.4%.
• Office, Gift & Souvenir Stores – Sales plummeted -34.0% from Oct. They are now actually up in all but vs Nov 21 but really down vs 21 & 19. Their recovery started late. It was slowly restarting in Jun/Jul, but their progress had slowed. It took off in Oct but slowed again in Nov. Their recovery continues. Ytd: +3.9%; Avg Growth Rate: 0.3%, Real: -1.4%
• Internet/Mail Order – Sales are +7.1% from Oct to $133.5B, a Nov record. All YOY measurements are positive, but their YOY growth, +7.0%, is only 49% of their average since 2019. However, 82.3% of their 123.6% growth since 2019 is real. Ytd: +7.0%; Avg Growth: +14.3%, Real: +12.4%. As expected, they are by far the growth leader since 2019.
• A/O Miscellaneous – Pet Stores are 22>24% of total $. In May 2020 they began their recovery which reached $100B for the first time in 2021. In 22 their $ dipped in Jan, Jul, Sep>Nov, rose Dec, fell Jan>Feb 23, grew Mar>May, fell Jun>Aug, rose Sep>Nov, fell Dec>Jan 24, grew Feb>May, fell Jun>Sep, grew Oct, fell Nov, rose Dec, fell Jan>Feb, grew Mar>May, fell Jun>Sep, rose Oct, fell Nov. All comparisons are positive, and they are right behind the Internet, in the % increase vs 19 & vs 21. Also, 76% of their 69.7% growth since 2019 is real. Ytd: +10.0%; Avg 19>25: 9.2%, Real: +7.4%

Nov was down -0.9% from Oct. All but Rel. Retl  & 5 smaller channels were down. The YOY Nov lift vs 24 was 1.9% for Total & 2.7%  for Relevant Retl. (Avg for both: 4.7%) Prices are again deflating in Sporting Gds, but this is not significant. Cumulative inflation still impacts sales as 6 channels were ‘really’ down vs Nov 21. The Retail Recovery has slowed again.

Now, Let’s Take an Advance Look at December – First the Big Groups

Nov>Dec sales were up for all but Gas Stations. A Nov>Dec Total Retail lift has happened every year since 1992. The 10.9% lift is 27% below the 15.0% avg change. There were 2 YOY $ drops, 1 less than Nov. All Big Groups were up vs Dec 24, but the Total Retail lift of 3.8% vs Dec 24 was 12% below their +4.3% 92>24 avg. However, the Relevant Retail 4.3% increase vs Dec 24 was 7% above their +4.0% avg. Inflation is still a factor. The CPI for all commodities slowed to 1.7% from 1.8% vs 24 but it fell from 8.6% to 7.7% vs 21. There is some good “real” news. No “real” measurement was down and Gas Stations are again “really” up vs 2019. Plus, 4 Big Groups are again all positive, up from 3 in Sep>Nov. Relevant Retail has been all positive in 18 of the last 20 months.

Overall Inflation Reality– The Total Retail CPI slowed to 1.7% but the $ lift vs 24 was still 12% below avg. The Restaurant CPI rose to +4.0% and their $ lift was 19% below avg. Gas prices flipped to -3.2%. They are still in turmoil. Auto inflation slowed to 0.9% vs 24 & -1.2% vs 21, but sales were only +1.9% vs 24 – 59% below their 4.6% avg change. Inflation rose to 2.0% for Relevant Retail, but their lift was 7% above avg and they are again all positive. Progress continued in December.

Total Retail – Since Jun 20, every month but Apr 23, Jun 24 & Feb 25 has set a monthly $ales record. In 2023>25, Sales were on a roller coaster. Up Jul>Aug, down Sep, up Oct>Dec, down Jan 24, up Feb>Mar, down April, up May, down Jun, up Jul>Aug, down Sep, up Oct>Dec, down Jan>Feb 25, up Mar, down Apr, up May, down Jun, up Jul>Aug, down Sep, up Oct, down Nov, up Dec. Prices are 1.7% and YOY $ are +3.8%, 12% below the avg. 42% of the 19>25 growth is real.  Inflation slowed but cumulative inflation is still impacting sales. Growth: 24>25: 3.7%; Avg 19>25: +6.2%, Real: +2.8%.

Restaurants – They were hit hard by the pandemic and didn’t begin recovery until March 2021. However, they have had strong growth since then, exceeding $1T for the 1^st time in 2023. November $ are up vs 24 and they have the biggest lifts vs 21 & 19. Inflation rose to 4.0% vs 24 and it is +24.2% vs 21 and +32.3% vs 19. Their 4.5% YOY lift is 19% below their +5.5% 92>24 avg. They are all positive again, but just 32.0% of their 56.0% growth since 2019 is real. They are 3^rd in performance behind Total & Relevant Retail. Recovery started late but inflation started early. Growth: 5.3%; Avg 19>25:+7.7%, Real: +2.8%. They just account for 13.6% of Total Retail $, but their strong growth has helped Total Retail.

Auto (Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers) – They overcame the stay-at-home attitude with great deals and advertising. They finished 2020 up 1% vs 2019 and hit a record $1.48T in 2021 but much was due to high inflation. In 22, sales got on a rollercoaster. Inflation started to drop mid-year, but it caused 4 down months in actual $. Their YE real 22 sales numbers were even worse, -8.2% vs 21 and -8.9% vs 19. 23 started a sales rollercoaster but the $ hit a record, $1.595T. $ fell in Jan 24, grew Feb>Mar, fell Apr, grew May, fell June, grew Jul>Aug, fell Sep, grew Oct, fell Nov, grew Dec, fell Jan>Feb 25, grew Mar, fell Apr>Jun, rose Jul>Aug, fell Sep, rose Oct, fell Nov, rose Dec. Dec $ were +1.9% vs 24. Avg: 4.6%. However, they are again all positive but just 23.2% of 19>25 growth is real. Growth: 3.9%; Avg 19>25: +5.3%, Real: +1.4%

Gas Stations – Gas Stations were hit hard by “stay at home”. They started recovery in Mar 21, and inflation began. Sales got on a rollercoaster in 22 but set a record, $583B. Inflation started to slow in Aug and prices slightly deflated in Dec & Feb 23, then strongly fell in Mar>Jul to -20.2%. In Aug they rose to -3.7%. In Sep they were +2.7% but began deflating to -4.2% in Feb 24. In Mar>May $ grew, fell Jun, rose July, fell Aug/Sep, rose Oct, fell Nov>Feb 25, rose Mar>May, fell Jun, rose Jul, fell Aug>Oct, up Nov, fell Dec. Dec $ vs 24: +2.5% (4.3% avg). Down Ytd vs 24 & vs Dec 21. Real $ are all positive. Growth: -1.4%; Avg 19>25: +3.3%, Real: 0.2%. They show the cumulative impact of inflation can be positive & negative.

Relevant Retail – Less Auto, Gas and Restaurants– They account for ≈60% of Total Retail $ in a variety of channels. Their only down month until Feb 25 was Apr 20, and they led the way in Retail’s recovery. Sales got on a roller coaster in 22, but all months set new records with Dec reaching a new all-time high, $481B, and an annual record of $4.81T. In 23, the roller coaster continued. A Dec lift set a new monthly record of $494.7B & an annual record of $4.997T. $ales got back on the roller coaster in 24. The ride continued as $ rose Oct>Jan 25, fell Feb, rose Mar>May, fell Jun, rose Jul, fell Aug>Sep, rose Oct>Dec. The Dec 4.3% YOY lift is 7% above their 92>24 avg of +4.0%. Plus, they are all positive again but only 41.8% of their 46.4% 19>25 growth is real, now #2 in Big Group performance, behind Total. Growth: 4.0%; Avg 19>25: +6.6%, Real: +3.0%. In 2024 their inflation rate dropped from 3.2% to 0.1%. It rose in 25 to 1.8% in Sep then slowed to 1.5% in Oct>Nov & hit 2.0% in Dec. YOY Inflation is pretty low, but its cumulative impact can slow growth.

YOY inflation is low, but cumulative & impending lifts can affect sales. In Dec, 2 actual YOY $ comparison were negative, 1 less than Nov. In Oct>Nov, there was 1 real drop. That fell to 0 in Dec. In Oct, all were up vs 24 with below avg lifts. In Nov only Auto was down but the lifts were all below avg. In Dec, all were up and Relevant Retl’s lift was above avg. In Oct/Nov, 3 big groups were all positive. In Dec, there were 4. Relevant Retail has now been all positive in 18 of 20 months. As expected, Dec sales rose vs Nov, but the lift was 27% below avg. Recovery is still slow.

Here’s a more detailed look at December by Key Channels (98% of December Ytd Rel Retl $)

• Relevant Retail: Ytd Growth: +4.0%; Avg 19>25: +6.6%; Real: 3.0%. % Real Growth: 41.8%. 10 of 11 were up from November. Vs Nov 24: 9 were up; 6 Real. Vs Nov 21: 8 were up; 7 Real. Vs 19: Only Dept Stores were down.
• All Department Stores – This group was struggling before the pandemic hit them hard. They began recovery in March 21. Sales are +38.8% from Nov, but all YOY measurements are negative. Their -0.02% Dec YOY drop is minimal and much better their -4.7% avg. Ytd Growth: -1.3%; Avg 19>25: -5.5%; Real: -7.3%. % Real growth: None
• Club/SuprCtr/$ – They fueled a big part of the recovery because they focus on value which has broad consumer appeal. $ales are +12.6% from Nov, and they are up in all comparisons but real vs Dec 24. Their 0.8% YOY Dec lift is -89% below their 92>24 avg of +7.0%. Ytd Growth: 2.2%; Avg 19>25: +5.0%; Real: 2.2%. % Real Growth: 40.3%
• Grocery- They depend on frequent purchases, so their changes are usually less radical. $ales are +3.6% from Nov, but they are really down vs 21 & Dec 24. Cumulative inflation has hit them hard, especially monthly & Ytd vs 21. Their 2.2% YOY Dec lift is 29.9% below avg. Ytd Growth: 2.7%; Avg 19>25: +4.8%; Real: 0.4%. % Real Growth: 6.8%
• Health/Drug Stores – Many stores are essential, but consumers visit less frequently than Grocery stores. $ are +17.3% from Nov and they are positive in all but real Ytd vs 21. Inflation has been relatively low, so it is no surprise that their +8.1% YOY lift vs Dec 24 is 66% above avg. Ytd Growth: 7.0%; Avg 19>25: +5.6%; Real: 4.1%. % Real Growth: 69.7%
• Clothing and Accessories – Clothes mattered less if you stayed home. That changed in March 2021 with strong growth through 2022. Sales are +36.6% from Nov and positive in all YOY measurements but real Ytd vs 24. $ales are +5.4% vs Dec 24, more than double their 2.6% avg. Ytd Growth: 5.5%; Avg 19>25: +3.5%; Real: 2.5%. % Real Growth: 69.5%.
• Home Furnishings – In mid-2020 consumers’ focus turned to their homes and furniture became a priority. Inflation is up to 3.1% in Dec. $ are +1.3% from Nov but are only up Ytd vs 24 & 19. YOY vs Dec 24, they are -3.7%, far below their 2.8% avg lift. Ytd Growth: 2.3%; Avg 19>25:+2.4%; Real: 0.03%. % Real Growth: 1.3%.
• Electronic & Appliances – They have had many issues. Sales fell in Apr>May of 2020 and didn’t reach 2019 levels until March 21. $ are +19.2% from Nov and they are only down Ytd vs 21. They have had strong deflation so real sales are all up. Sales are +2.6% vs Dec 24, double the avg. Ytd Growth: 0.8%; Avg 19>25: 0.5%; Real: 3.7%. Real Growth: 11.1%
• Building Material, Farm & Garden & Hardware – They truly benefited from the consumers’ focus on home. In 2022 the lift slowed as inflation grew to double digits. Prices turned up again in Apr>Sep 25, dropped Oct/Nov, then jumped to 5.4% in Dec. Sales are up 0.7% from Nov but only up vs Dec 24 and Ytd vs 21 & 19. YOY sales vs Dec 24 were +3.4%, 17.5% below their 4.1% Avg. Ytd Growth: -1.3%; Avg 19>25: +4.5%; Real: 0.8%. % Real Growth: 15.6%.
• Sporting Goods, Hobby and Book Stores – Consumers turned their attention to recreation and Sporting Goods stores sales took off. Book & Hobby Stores recovered more slowly. They have been on a sales roller coaster since June 24 and $ are +34.3% from Nov. Actual & Real sales are only down Ytd vs 21. YOY Sales vs Dec 24 are +8.7%, almost 6 times their 1.5% avg. Ytd Growth: +2.5%; Avg 19>25: +4.3%; Real: 3.6%. % Real Growth; 81.5%.
• All Miscellaneous Stores – Pet Stores have been a key part of the strong and growing recovery of this group. They finished 2020 at +0.9% but sales took off in March 21 and have continued to grow. Sales are -8.2% vs Nov, but positive in all comparisons. They are 2^nd in the % increase vs 19 & 3^rd vs 21. Plus, their 10.1% YOY Dec lift is 3.6 times more than their 92>24 avg of +2.8%. Ytd Growth: +9.2%; Avg 19>25: +7.1%; Real: 5.3%. % Real Growth: 70.8%.
• NonStore Retailers – 90% of their $ comes from Internet/Mail Order/TV. The pandemic accelerated online spending. They ended 2020 +21.4%. The growth continued in 2021 as sales exceeded $100B for the 1^st time and they broke the $1 Trillion barrier. $ are +17.1% from Nov but their YOY lift of 6.7% is -31% below the 9.8% avg. However, they are positive in all comparisons. Ytd Growth: 6.8%; Avg 19>25: +13.2%; Real: 11.3%. % Real Growth: 81.2%.

Recap – Driven by Relevant Retail, the Pandemic recovery was widespread by Y/E 21. In 22 we were hit with the strongest inflation in 40 years. Inflation has slowed considerably from its Jun 22 peak but only 1 channel is deflating. Deflation helps, but cumulative inflation can still have a negative impact – slowed YOY growth and even sales drops. $ rose from Nov for 10 of 11 channels. Only 1 of the 10 lifts was above avg. The biggest concern is still YOY drops and smaller lifts. Relevant Retail’s 4.3% lift vs Dec was 7% above avg. 9 channels had a YOY lift vs Dec 24, the same as last month, but only 4 of the 9 lifts were above avg, up from 3 in Nov but down from 7 in Oct and 6 in Sep. There are at least 2 major factors. High prices from cumulative inflation and the move to shop earlier for the Holidays. December is still the biggest retail month of year and Total & Relevant Retail both had the most sales in history. The Yoy lift was below avg for Total but 7% above avg for Relevant. The situation is better than Nov but still mixed due to cumulative inflation and the early holiday shopping movement. 7 of 11 channels had a below avg lift or a drop vs Dec 24. We’ll see what happens.

Here are the Nov/Dec inflation rates for the CPIs used to calculate the impact of inflation on retail groups and channels. This includes special aggregate CPIs created with the instruction and guidance of the US BLS. I also researched data from the last Economic Census to review the share of sales by product category for the various channels to help in selecting what expenditures to include in specific aggregates. Of course, none of these specially created aggregates are 100% accurate but they are much closer than the overall CPI or available aggregates. The data includes the CPI changes vs 21 to show cumulative inflation. Note: Dec Ytd is 2025 Annual & Includes October Estimates

Monthly YOY CPI changes of 0.2% or more are highlighted. (Green = lower; Pink = higher)

Here are some answers to some obvious questions. Note: Prices usually rose Nov>Dec.

• Why is the group for Nonstore different from the Internet?

• • Non-store is not all internet. It also includes Fuel Oil Dealers, the non-motor fuel Energy Commodity.

• Why is there no Food at home included in Nonstore or Internet?

• • Online Grocery purchasing is becoming popular, but almost all is from companies whose major business is brick ‘n mortar. These online sales are recorded under their primary channel.

• 5 Channels have the same CPI aggregate but represent a variety of business types.

• • They also have a wide range of product types. Rather than try to build aggregates of a multitude of small expenditure categories, it seemed better to eliminate the biggest, influential groups that they don’t sell. This method is not perfect, but it is certainly closer than any existing aggregate.

• Why are Grocery and Supermarkets only tied to the Grocery CPI?

• • According to the Economic Census, 76% of their sales comes from Grocery products. Grocery Products are the driver. The balance of their sales comes from a collection of a multitude of categories.

• What about Drug/Health Stores only being tied to Medical Commodities.

• • An answer similar to the one for Grocery/Supermarkets. However, in this case Medical Commodities account for over 80% of these stores’ total sales.

• Why do SuperCtrs/Clubs and $ Stores have the same CPI?

• • Big Stores sell more fresh groceries, Groceries account for ¼ of $ Store sales. Same Ctgys – different mix.

Due to the shutdown, no CPIs were produced in October. Based upon the Nov data, it’s likely that inflation slowed in Oct. Total Retail October sales were +3.8% vs 24, 18.9% below their Oct avg. Relevant Retail sales were +4.5% vs 24, 2.3% below avg. There are other factors besides the current CPI impacting sales, including high cumulative inflation and tarifflation binge buying. It is a complex situation. The problem with YOY drops & the size of sales lifts is improving but still concerning.

We’ll continue to track the retail market with data from 2 reports provided by the Census Bureau and when possible factor in a targeted CPI. The reports are the Monthly and the Advance Retail Sales Reports. Both are derived from sales data gathered from retailers across the U.S. and are published monthly at the same time. The Monthly Report includes data from all respondents, so it takes longer to compile – about 6 weeks. Although the sample size for the Advance report is smaller, the results over the years have proven it to be statistically accurate with the Monthly. The Advance Report has a smaller sample size so it can be published quickly – about 2 weeks after month end. The biggest difference is that the full sample in the Monthly report allows us to “drill” a little deeper into the channels.

We will begin with the September Monthly Report and then go to the October Advance Report. Our focus is comparing to last year but also 21 & 19. We’ll show both actual and the “real” change in sales as we factor inflation into the data.

Both reports normally include the following:

• Total Retail, Restaurants, Auto, Gas Stations and Relevant Retail (removing Restaurants, Auto and Gas)
• Individual Channel Data – This is more detailed in the Monthly reports, and we’ll focus on Pet Relevant Channels.

The data will be presented in detailed charts to facilitate visual comparison between groups/channels. The charts will show 11 separate measurements. To save space they will be displayed in a stacked bar format for the Sep channel chart.

• Current Month change – % & $ vs previous month
• Current Month change – % & $ vs same month last year and vs 2021.
  • Current Month Real change vs last year and vs 2021 – % factoring in inflation (Not available for October)
• Current Ytd change – % & $ for this year vs last year, 2021 & 2019.
  • Current Ytd Real change % for this year vs last year and vs 2021 and 2019 (Not available for October)
• Monthly & Ytd $ & CPIs for this year vs last year and vs 2021 which are targeted by channel will also be shown. (CPI Details are at the end of the report – No data for October

First, the September Monthly. All were down from August but there was only 1 actual YOY sales drop, Gas Stations Ytd vs 24. Note: They are still selling more product than in 2019. 4 groups are again “all positive”, up from 3 in Mar>Jul. Relevant Retail has been all positive in 19 of the last 23 months and in 15 of the last 17. ($ are Not Seasonally Adjusted)

The Sep Monthly is $0.6B less than the Advance report. Restaurants: -$0.8B; Auto: +$0.7B; Gas Stations: -$0.2B; Relevant Retail: -$0.3B. All were down from Aug. An Aug>Sep decrease in Total Retail  has happened every year since 1992 but the -4.9% drop was 21% below the -6.2% avg. There was only 1 YOY drop in actual sales, 1 less than Mar>Aug. There were again no “real” sales drops, down from 1 in Jul, 2 less than May/Jun & way down from 4 in Apr & 5 in Mar. 4 groups were again “all positive”, (3 in Mar>Jul). Restaurants still have the biggest increases vs 21 & 19 but Relevant Retl stayed at the top of “real” performance vs 2019. However, only 52.5% of their growth is real.

Now, let’s see how some Key Pet Relevant channels did in September (78% of Sep Ytd Rel Retl $)

Overall– 8 of 11 were down from August. Vs Sep 24, 7 were actually & 5 “really” up. Vs Sep 21, 8 were up but only 5 were real increases. Vs 2019, Only Dept Strs were actually & really down, but Off/Gift/Souv were also really down.

• Building Material Stores – The pandemic focus on home has produced sales growth of 29.9% since 2019. Prices for the Bldg/Matl group have inflated 19.1% from 21 and 23.6% from 2019 which is having an impact. Sales vs Aug were -1.1% for HomeCtr/Hdwe, but +6.4% for Farm Stores. Vs other years, Farm stores are actually up for all, but Home Center/Hardware are only actually up vs Sep 21 & 2019. They are really down for all but vs 2019. Farm stores are only really down monthly & Ytd vs 21. Plus, only 17% of the Bldg Materials group’s 19>25 lift was real. HomeCtr/Hdwe: Ytd: +0.2%; Avg 19>25 Growth: 4.1%, Real: 0.5%; Farm: Ytd: +5.1%; Avg: 6.4%, Real: 2.7%
• Food & Drug – Both are essential. Except for the COVID food binge, they tend to have smaller changes in $. Vs Aug: Supermarkets: -5.0%; Drug: +3.5%. In terms of inflation, the Groceries rate is 4 times higher than Drug/Med products. Drug Stores are positive in all measurements and 70% of their 2019>25 growth is real. Supermarkets’ actual $ are up in all comparisons. They are only “really” down monthly and Ytd vs 21. However, only 8.5% of their 19>25 increase is real growth. Supermarkets: Ytd: +3.6%; Avg 19>25: +4.9%, Real: +0.5%; Drug Stores: Ytd: 8.3%; Avg: +5.8%, Real: +4.2%
• Sporting Goods Stores – They also benefited from the pandemic in that consumers turned to self-entertainment, especially sports & outdoor activities. Sales are -20.2% from Aug and their only positives are real Ytd vs 24 and actual/real vs 19. Prices stopped deflating vs 24. Deflation started in April 23 and was a big change from +1.1% in 22>23 & +7.9% in 21>22. This caused 68% of their 32% lift since 19 to be real. Ytd: -2.6%; Avg 19>25: +4.7%; Real: +3.3%.
• Gen Mdse Stores – Sales were -9.8% vs Aug. All YOY sales – actual & real were up for $ Stores. SupCtr/Clubs were only really down vs Sep 24. Department Stores are negative in all comparisons. Their Actual sales are even -30.3% from 19 (Real: -37.1%). The other channels have an average of 42.0% in real growth. SupCtr/Club: Ytd: +2.5%; Avg 19>25: 5.1%, Real: 2.3%; $/Value Strs: Ytd: +1.7%; Avg: +5.5%, Real: +2.6%; Dept. Strs: Ytd: -2.9%; Avg: -5.8%, Real: -7.4%.
• Office, Gift & Souvenir Stores – Sales fell -5.6% from Aug. They are only actually up Ytd vs 24, 21 & 19 but they are only ‘really’ up Ytd vs 24. Their recovery started late. It was slowly restarting in Jun/Jul, but their progress has slowed. Actual Sales are now up vs 2019. Ytd: +2.5%; Avg Growth Rate: 0.05%, Real: -1.6%
• Internet/Mail Order – Sales are -0.7% from Aug to $114.7B, but still a Sep record. All YOY measurements are positive, but their YOY growth, +7.4%, is only 51% of their average since 2019. However, 82.5% of their 125.1% growth since 2019 is real. Ytd: +7.4%; Avg Growth: +14.5%, Real: +12.5%. As expected, they are by far the growth leader since 2019.
• A/O Miscellaneous – Pet Stores are 22>24% of total $. In May 2020 they began their recovery which reached $100B for the first time in 2021. In 2022 their sales dipped in Jan, Jul, Sep>Nov, rose in Dec, fell in Jan>Feb 23, grew Mar>May, fell Jun>Aug, rose Sep>Nov, fell Dec>Jan 24, grew Feb>May, fell Jun>Sep, grew Oct, fell Nov, rose Dec, fell Jan>Feb, grew Mar>May, then fell Jun>Sep. All comparisons are again positive, and they are in 2^nd place, behind the Internet, in the % increase vs 19 and vs 21. Also, 77% of their 70.5% growth since 2019 is real. Ytd: +9.4%; Avg 19>25: 9.3%, Real: +7.5%

Sep had a -4.9% drop vs Aug. All Big groups & 8 of 11 smaller channels were down. The YOY Sep lift vs 24 was 5.6% for Total & 5.0%  for Relevant Retl. (Avg for both: 4.6%) Prices are now not deflating in any channel, but cumulative inflation still impacts sales as only 5 channels were ‘really’ up vs Sep 21. The Retail Recovery has definitely slowed but continues.

Most pricing data used in calculating the monthly CPIs for specific expenditures is gathered  in personal visits. Due to the government shutdown, no CPI data was gathered in October. This cannot be recaptured. It’s gone forever. We all know that high prices affect consumer spending. The reason is that consumers increasingly focus on “value”. 2 obvious results of the recent inflation surge are a move to online ordering and the growing popularity of private label products.

The CPI (inflation) data helps to put the actual sales numbers into a better perspective. Other sources indicate that the inflation rate slowed in October. It definitely slowed in November. The US BLS just released their November CPI numbers. The National CPI slowed -0.2% from September and YOY inflation dropped from 3.0% to 2.7%. Commodities prices are down -0.8% from September and YOY inflation slowed to 1.8% from 1.9%.

It is likely that that inflation began to slow in October and the trend continued in November, but we will never know for sure. One thing is certain. Prices were still high in October, and this cumulative inflation can cause lower sales lifts, especially YOY last year.

Let’s look at actual Retail $ales in October.

Sep>Oct sales were up for all. A Sep>Oct Total Retail lift has happened every year but 2008 since 1992 but the 5.2% lift is 48% more than the 3.5% avg. There was 1 YOY $ drop, Ytd vs 24 for Gas Stations, the same as Sep. $ for all Big Groups were up vs Oct 24, but the Total Retail lift of 3.8% was 19% below their +4.6% 92>24 avg. The Relevant Retail 4.5% increase vs Oct 24 was 2% below their +4.6% avg. Inflation was not reported but cumulative high prices are still a factor.

Total Retail – Since Jun 20, every month but Apr 23, Jun 24 & Feb 25 has set a monthly $ales record. In 2023>25, Sales were on a roller coaster. Up Jul>Aug, down Sep, up Oct>Dec, down Jan 24, up Feb>Mar, down April, up May, down Jun, up Jul>Aug, down Sep, up Oct>Dec, down Jan>Feb 25, up Mar, down Apr, up May, down Jun, up Jul>Aug, down Sep, up Oct. YOY Oct $ are +3.8%, 19% below the 92>24 avg of 4.6%. Ytd 24>25 Growth: 4.0%; Avg 19>25: +6.3%.

Restaurants – They were hit hard by the pandemic and didn’t begin recovery until March 2021. However, they have had strong growth since then, exceeding $1T for the 1^st time in 2023. Sep>Oct $ are up and they have the biggest lifts vs 21 & 19. Their 5.0% YOY lift is 9% below their +5.5% 92>24 avg. Recovery started late but inflation started early. Ytd Growth: 5.5%; Avg 19>25:+7.8%. They just account for 13.8% of Total Retail $, but their strong growth has helped Total Retail.

Auto (Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers) – They overcame the stay-at-home attitude with great deals and advertising. They finished 2020 up 1% vs 2019 and hit a record $1.48T in 2021 but much of it was due to skyrocketing inflation. In 22, sales got on a rollercoaster. Inflation started to drop mid-year, but it caused 4 down months in actual $. Their YE real 2022 sales numbers were even worse, -8.2% vs 21 and -8.9% vs 19. 23 started a sales rollercoaster but the $ hit a record, $1.595T. $ fell in Jan 24, grew Feb>Mar, fell Apr, grew May, fell June, grew Jul>Aug, fell Sep, grew Oct, fell Nov, grew Dec, fell Jan>Feb 25, grew Mar, fell Apr>Jun, rose Jul>Aug, fell Sep, rose Oct. Oct $ were +1.4% vs 24, 65% below their 4.25 avg. Ytd Growth: 4.7%; Avg 19>25: +5.3%.

Gas Stations – Gas Stations were hit hard by “stay at home”. They started recovery in Mar 21, and inflation began. Sales got on a rollercoaster in 22 but set a record, $583B. Inflation started to slow in Aug and prices slightly deflated in Dec & Feb 23, then strongly fell in Mar>Jul to -20.2%. In Aug they rose to -3.7%. In Sep they were +2.7% but began deflating to -4.2% in Feb 24. In Mar>May $ grew, fell Jun, rose July, fell Aug/Sep, rose Oct, fell Nov>Feb 25, rose Mar>May, fell Jun, rose Jul, fell Aug/Sep, rose Oct. Oct $ vs 24: +1.6% (4.8% avg). Only down Ytd vs 24. Ytd: -2.0%; Avg 19>25: +3.3%.

Relevant Retail – Less Auto, Gas and Restaurants – They account for ≈60% of Total Retail $ in a variety of channels, so they took many different paths through the pandemic. Their only down month until Feb 25 was April 2020, and they led the way in Total Retail’s recovery. Sales got on a roller coaster in 2022, but all months set new records with December reaching a new all-time high, $481B, and an annual record of $4.81T. In 2023, the roller coaster continued. A December lift set a new monthly record of $494.7B & an annual record of $4.997T. Sales fell Jan>Feb 24, rose Mar, fell Apr, rose in May, fell in June, rose Jul>Aug, fell Sep, rose Oct>Jan 25, fell Feb, rose Mar>May, fell Jun, rose Jul, fell Aug>Sep, rose Oct. The Oct 4.5% YOY lift is 2% below their 92>24 4.6% avg. Ytd Growth: 4.1%; Avg 19>25: +6.6.

The CPI rates for October are unknown but prices are high which can affect sales lifts. As expected, sales rose from Sep for all big groups. The increase was only above avg for Gas, Rel Rtl & Total. Like Sep, just 1 actual YOY $ comparison was negative in Oct – Ytd vs 24 for Gas Stations.  Vs Oct 24, all big groups were up, but the lifts were below avg. The Retail recovery continues but progress is still slow. Inflation definitely slowed in November. We’ll see if that has an impact.

Here’s a more detailed look at October by Key Channels (98% of October Ytd Rel Retl $)

• Relevant Retail: Ytd Growth: +4.1%; Avg 19>25: +6.6%. All 11 were up from September. Vs Oct 24: 10 were up. Vs Oct 21: 8 were up. Vs 19: Only Dept Stores were down.
• All Department Stores – This group was struggling before the pandemic hit them hard. They began recovery in March 2021. Sales are +20.8% from Sep but all YOY measurements but vs Oct 24 are negative. Their 7.4% Oct YOY lift is radically better than their -4.8% avg change. Ytd Growth: -1.8%; Avg 19>25: -5.6%.
• Club/SuprCtr/$ – They fueled a big part of the recovery because they focus on value which has broad consumer appeal. $ales are +8.0% from Sep and they are up in all comparisons. Their 2.6% YOY Oct lift is -68% below their 92>24 avg of +8.2%. Ytd Growth: 2.4%; Avg 19>25: +5.2%.
• Grocery- They depend on frequent purchases, so their changes are usually less radical. $ales are +4.8% from Sep and positive in all comparisons. Cumulative inflation has hit them hard, especially monthly & Ytd vs 21. Their 3.2% YOY Oct lift is 0.9% above avg. Ytd Growth: 2.9%; Avg 19>25: +4.8%.
• Health/Drug Stores – Many stores are essential, but consumers visit less frequently than Grocery stores. $ are +2.9% from Sep and they are positive in all comparisons. Inflation has been relatively low so it is no surprise that their +6.0% YOY lift vs Oct 24 is 10.7% above avg. Ytd Growth: 7.1%; Avg 19>25: +5.5%.
• Clothing and Accessories – Clothes mattered less if you stayed home. That changed in March 2021 with strong growth through 2022. Sales are +8.4% from Sep and positive in all YOY measurements. $ales are +6.3% vs Oct 24, more than double their Oct avg. Ytd Growth: 5.2%; Avg 19>25: +3.4%.
• Home Furnishings – In mid-2020 consumers’ focus turned to their homes and furniture became a priority. Inflation has slowed to 2.5% in Sep. $ are +3.6% from Sep and are only down monthly & Ytd vs 21. YOY vs Oct 24, they are +0.7%, 76% below avg. Ytd Growth: 3.8%; Avg 19>25:+2.5%.
• Electronic & Appliances – They have had many issues. Sales fell in Apr>May of 2020 and didn’t reach 2019 levels until March 21. $ are +2.8% from Sep and they are only down monthly & Ytd vs 21. They have had strong deflation. Sales are +5.4% vs Oct 24, 2.8 times the avg. Ytd Growth: 0.7%; Avg 19>25: 0.67%.
• Building Material, Farm & Garden & Hardware – They truly benefited from the consumers’ focus on home. In 2022 the lift slowed as inflation grew to double digits. Prices turned up again in Apr>Sep 25 but sales are +5.4% from Sep. $ales are only down monthly & Ytd vs 24. YOY sales vs Oct 24 were -5.1%, far below their 4.3% Avg. Ytd Growth: -1.4%; Avg 19>25: +4.5%.
• Sporting Goods, Hobby and Book Stores – Consumers turned their attention to recreation and Sporting Goods stores sales took off. Book & Hobby Stores recovered more slowly. They have been on a sales rollercoaster since June 24 and $ are +3.8% from Sep. Actual sales are only down Ytd vs 21. YOY Sales vs Oct 24 are +5.7%, double their 2.8% avg. Ytd Growth: +1.3%; Avg 19>25: +4.0%.
• All Miscellaneous Stores – Pet Stores have been a key part of the strong and growing recovery of this group. They finished 2020 at +0.9% but sales took off in March 21 and have continued to grow. Sales are +9.2% vs Sep and positive in all comparisons. They are 2^nd in the % increases vs 19 & vs 21. Plus, their 10.2% YOY Oct lift is 2.5 times more than their 92>24 avg of +4.2%. Ytd Growth: +8.5%; Avg 19>25: +7.2%.
• NonStore Retailers – 90% of their $ comes from Internet/Mail Order/TV. The pandemic accelerated online spending. They ended 2020 +21.4%. The growth continued in 2021 as sales exceeded $100B for the 1^st time and they broke the $1 Trillion barrier. $ are +11.2% from Sep but their YOY lift of 8.8% is -10% below the 9.8% avg. However, they are positive in all comparisons. Ytd Growth: 7.2%; Avg 19>25: +13.6%.

Recap – Driven by Relevant Retail, the Pandemic recovery was widespread by Y/E 2021. In 2022 we were hit with the strongest inflation in 40 years. Overall inflation has slowed considerably from its Jun 22 peak but very few channels are now deflating. Deflation helps, but cumulative inflation can still have a negative impact – slowed YOY growth and even sales drops. $ rose from  Sep for all 11 channels. 10 of the 11 lifts were above avg. The biggest concern is still YOY drops and smaller lifts. Relevant Retail’s 4.5% lift vs Oct 24 was 2% below avg. 10 channels had a YOY lift vs Oct 24, the same as last month. Plus, 7 of the 10 lifts were above avg, up from 6 in Sep and 4 in Aug. Here is where the situation gets complex. Despite a Sep>Oct lift that was 58% more than avg, the Relative Retail YOY lift vs Oct 24 was 2% below avg. How did this happen when 7 of 11 channels had an above avg YOY lift? The answer is “follow the money”. Nonstore, SupCtr/Club/$ and Bldg/Farm are 3 of the 4 largest channels and account for 55% of Relevant Retl $. Bldg/Farm had an Oct YOY drop while the other 2 had below avg YOY lifts. Progress continues but it is slow and complex.

Here again are the Aug/Sep inflation rates for the CPIs used to calculate the impact of inflation on retail groups and channels. This includes special aggregate CPIs created with the instruction and guidance of personnel from the US BLS. I also researched data from the last Economic Census to review the share of sales by product category for the various channels to help in selecting what expenditures to include in specific aggregates. Of course, none of these specially created aggregates are 100% accurate but they are much closer than the overall CPI or available aggregates. The data also includes the CPI changes vs 21 to show cumulative inflation. Sep 21 data should help show you where prices were at the beginning of October

Monthly YOY CPI changes of 0.2% or more are highlighted. (Green = lower; Pink = higher)

Here are some answers to some obvious questions. Note: All Rel Rtl but Furniture, Groceries, Clothing increased prices.

1. Why is the group for Nonstore different from the Internet?
   • Non-store is not all internet. It also includes Fuel Oil Dealers, the non-motor fuel Energy Commodity.
2. Why is there no Food at home included in Nonstore or Internet?

• Online Grocery purchasing is becoming popular, but almost all is from companies whose major business is brick ‘n mortar. These online sales are recorded under their primary channel.

3. 5 Channels have the same CPI aggregate but represent a variety of business types.
   • They also have a wide range of product types. Rather than try to build aggregates of a multitude of small expenditure categories, it seemed better to eliminate the biggest, influential groups that they don’t sell. This method is not perfect, but it is certainly closer than any existing aggregate.
4. Why are Grocery and Supermarkets only tied to the Grocery CPI?
   • According to the Economic Census, 76% of their sales comes from Grocery products. Grocery Products are the driver. The balance of their sales comes from a collection of a multitude of categories.
5. What about Drug/Health Stores only being tied to Medical Commodities.
   • An answer similar to the one for Grocery/Supermarkets. However, in this case Medical Commodities account for over 80% of these stores’ total sales.
6. Why do SuperCtrs/Clubs and $ Stores have the same CPI?
   • Big Stores sell more fresh groceries, Groceries account for ¼ of $ Store sales. Same Ctgys – different mix.

The U.S. Retail market reached $8.39 Trillion in 2024 from all channels – Auto Dealers, Supermarkets, Restaurants, Online retailers and even Pet Stores. The $247B, +3.0% lift was down significantly from the pandemic recovery lift of +$1.12T, +18.3% in 2021. However, the Total Retail market is now $2.32T, 34.2% ahead of 2019. That’s a strong annual growth rate of +6.1%. (Data courtesy of the Census Bureau’s monthly retail trade report.)

In this report we will focus on the top 100 Retailers in the U.S. Market. The base data on the Top 100 comes from Kantar Research and was published by the National Retail Federation (NRF). The historical data for some companies that weren’t in the Top 100 all years from 2019>2023 was gathered from other reliable sources. In 2020, Restaurants were removed from the list and only Convenience stores sales for Gas Stations were included. I adjusted the 2019 list to reflect this change. This change means that the Top 100 now only includes Relevant Retail companies. The Top 100 account for 36.2% of the total market. This share peaked at 39.8% during the 2020 pandemic and has stabilized at 36% since then. However, the Top 100 are still the “Retail Elite”. The vast majority of the group also stock and sell a lot of Pet Products so their progress is critically important to the Pet Industry. Let’s get started in our analysis. The report does contain a lot of data, but no longer a store count. We’ll still break it up into smaller pieces to make it more digestible.

We will begin our report with an overview chart of the 2019>2024 annual sales history for major segments of the Retail Marketplace. The U.S. Retail market strongly recovered from the 2020 pandemic trauma and the resurgence became widespread across most channels. Our regular retail sales reports have shown that different defined retail channels often took a different path from 2019 to 2021. In the Spring of 2021 and throughout 2022 the retail market faced a new challenge – strong inflation. The YOY price increases were the largest in decades, even reaching double digits in October of 2021 (stayed for 11 months). The high rate didn’t start to slow until July of 2022. Although the increase rate has slowed, the retail market is now feeling the impact of high cumulative inflation. The Top 100 analysis allows us to see if the company revenue size was a factor in their overall pandemic/price journey from 2019>2024. The following chart shows the annual sales and market share as well as the changes in both for large retail subgroups that are based upon the amount of their annual revenue. Note: In comments we’ll show Avg Growth Rates – Actual & Real (Inflation Related)

• The Total Retail Market grew $247B, +3.0% in 2024. That is far less than the $1.12T, +18.3% in 2021 and even below pre-pandemic years: 2019, 3.6%; 2018, 4.9%; 2017, 4.3%. However, the average growth rate from 2019>24 is 6.7%, which is 72% above the 2016>19 rate of 3.9%. Factoring in inflation, Real 19>24 growth was +2.4%, below the 16>19 real rate of +2.7%. The impact of cumulative inflation – smaller sales increases and only 36% of 19>24 growth is real.
• The “Non-Relevant” Group (Restaurants, Auto Dlrs, Gas Stations) was hit hardest by the pandemic as sales fell -9.7% in 2020. They had a strong recovery as 20>22 sales grew $906B, 41.9%. Average annual growth: 18.8%. In 23 the increase slowed to 2.6% & 2.2% in 24. High inflation from 2019 was a factor. Gas: 27%; Auto: 24%; Restaurants: 28%
• Relevant Retail was the hero of the pandemic as they kept Total Retail positive in 2020. Their sales surged in the 2021 recovery then radically slowed in 23 (3.9%) & 24 (3.6%). They were still up $179B producing an average growth rate since 2019 of +7.1%. Their Real growth rate (considering inflation) was +3.9%. Their share of Total Retail has stabilized at 61% but it is down 2.9% from its peak of 64.6% in 2020. The story is complex. We’ll drill deeper.
• The Top 100 Retailers make up 58.8% of Relevant Retail and 36.2% of Total Retail. Sales have grown every year since 2019 but growth slowed markedly in 23 before an uptick in 24. Their market share has fallen since peaking in 2020 for Total Retail and 2019 for Relevant Retail. Their average growth since 2019 is +5.6%, but Real Growth is +3.4%. 60.7% of their growth is real.
• The biggest subgroup in $ales in the Top 100 is the Top 10 which accounts for 60.1% of the Top 100’s revenue, up from 55% in 2019. This group has been unchanged since 2015 and consists of Amazon, plus truly essential brick ‘n mortar retailers. Their biggest sales surge occurred in 2020 which was their peak in Total & Relevant Retail market share. Their growth slowed in 23 but rose in 24. Their average growth rate is +7.5%. Real growth was +4.3%,  57.3%.
• The Retailers ranked from #11 to #100 change slightly every year. Their sales in 2024 ranged from $4B to $71.1B and they accounted for 39.9% of the Top 100’s revenue. They have an unusual sales pattern in that their $46B decrease in 2020 is the only negative sales on the chart outside of the big drop by Rest/Auto/Gas. They did have a big 10.7% increase in 2021 but that fell to 1.9% in 23 & 1.5% in 24. They have lost market share in Relevant & Total Retail every year since 2019 but are still a big part of U.S. Retail. Avg Growth: +3.0%; Real: 2.3% – 75.3%.
• The Relevant Retailers outside of the Top 100 don’t get a lot of “press” but maybe they should. They currently account for 41.2% of Relevant Retail $ and 25.4% of Total Retail. They had the biggest percentage increase of any Relevant Retail subgroup overall and in all years but 2020 & 2024 (2^nd). Their increase is +9.5%. Real: +6.2%, the best numbers of any group on the chart. While this performance is amazing, perhaps the most important fact is that they delivered 60% of Relevant Retail’s sales increase in 2020 and even 52% of the lift from 2019>2024.

There is no doubt that the big retailers are critical to the success of the U.S. Retail Market. However, there are sometimes “hidden heroes” that should be noted.

The Top 100 only outperformed Total Retail in 2020 and 2024. In fact, their sales growth since 2019 trails Total Retail, Relevant Retail and even Rest/Auto/Gas. It still generates 36.2% of Total U.S. Retail $ so it is still very important. We also should remember that the Top 100 is really a contest with a changing list of winners. Companies drop out and new ones are added. This can be the result of mergers, acquisitions, surging or slumping sales or even a restructuring. In 2024,

3 were new: • JD Sports (Apparel)   • Urban Outfitters (Apparel)   • Grocery Outlet (Supermarket)

3 dropped off: • Southeastern Grocers (Supermarket)  • Big Lots (Small Format Value)  • Shell Oil (Convenience)

I think that we now have a good overview of U.S. Retail and the Top 100 so let’s ask and answer a very relevant question. How many Top 100 companies are buying and selling Pet Products? This will reinforce that Pets have become an integral part of the American Household and how fierce that the competition for the Pet Parents’ $ has become.

• We should note that the data in the chart only reflects the performance of the companies in the 2024 list since 2019 and is not being compared to the Top 100 list of companies from prior years
• 88 are selling some Pet Products in stores and/or online. This is 1 more company than 2023 and 8 more than the 1^st “official” all Relevant Retail Top 100 list in 2020.
  • Their Total Retail Sales of all products is $2.94 Trillion which is…
    • 96.9% of the total business for the Top 100
    • 56.9% of Relevant Retail
    • 35.1% of the Total Retail market
  • 74 Cos., with $2.77T in sales, sell pet products off the retail shelf – 91.1% of Top 100 $ & 53.5% of Relevant Retail.
    • In 2024, only 2 companies in the current Top 100 changed how they handle pet products – both chose in store. Victoria’s Secret added pet and Advance Auto made some Pet available in their stores.
    • As you can see by the growth in sales, “in store” is still the best way to sell pet.
  • Online only is another story and the story gets complicated.
    • Amazon includes Whole Foods, which has stores in 45 states so the Amazon $ are in the “Pet in Store” numbers.
    • As we said, one retailer now offers some Pet in store rather than online only. The Online only group had the smallest sales lift in 23>24, but they still lead Non-Pet in the 19>24 $ lift.
  • Some non-pet specialty retailers like Lulumon and Signet have had extraordinarily strong post pandemic growth. The growth in the whole non-pet group slowed in 2022, fell -2.7% in 2023 before rebounding slightly to +2.0% in 2024. Perhaps, more of them will see Pet as a real growth opportunity.

The pandemic caused our Pets to become an even more important part of our households. They are truly family. Pet products have long been an integral part of the strongest retailers and are now even more widespread across the entire U.S. marketplace. Of the Top 100, Companies doing 91% of sales stock & sell at least some pet items. However, there are thousands of additional “pet” retail outlets including 15,000 Grocery Stores, 10,000 Pet Stores, 16,000 Vet Clinics, 6,000 Pet Services businesses and more. Pet Products are on the shelf in over 200,000 U.S. brick ‘n mortar stores… plus the internet. Pet Products have become part of the new “normal” for the majority of U.S. Retailers.

Before we analyze the whole Top 100 list in greater detail let’s take a quick look at the Top 10 retailers in the U.S.

Except for changes in rank, this group has been incredibly stable. The list has been the same since 2013, with one slight qualification. In 2015 Albertsons purchased Safeway. The new Albertsons/Safeway group replaced the stand-alone Safeway company in the list. We have included the growth, both Actual & Real (Inflation was factored in using specifically targeted CPIs) for 23>24 & 19>24. Plus, the average growth rates for 19>24. Now let’s get into the numbers.

• Their Total Retail Sales were $1.83 Trillion which is:
  • 60.1% of Top 100 $ales, 0.8% above the previous 2023 peak (59.3%), but 5.1% more than 55% in 2019.
  • 35.3% of Relevant Retail, above 21>23 but down from 36.3% in 2020.
  • 21.8% of Total U.S. Retail $, above 2019 and 21>23, but down from 23.4% in 2020.
• In ranking, there was only 1 change. Walgreens & Target swapped places.
• Sales vs 23 are only actually & really down for Lowe’s, but Kroger is also really down.
• All are actually up vs 19, but Kroger & Walgreens were really down. The biggest growth came from Amazon. In average growth, 5 have rates over 7%, but 2 are really <0%. The group averages +7.5% with +4.3%, 57.3% being real.

Now we’ll look at the detailed list of the top 100. It is sorted by channel groups with subtotals in key columns. The data only reflects the situation for the current 2024 Top 100 Retailers. Retailers have slightly changed in some groups through the years but there has been very little difference in group share. CPI Note: To better reflect their “real” product sales, I used a specific CPI rate for each retailer. These ranged from individual expenditures, like Alcohol at Home for Total Wine & More to specially created targeted aggregates for Superstores/Clubs. For the group, the individual inflation results were then combined to more accurately reflect the group price changes .  There is not a lot of highlighting, but:

• Pet Columns ’24 & ‘23 – a “1” with an orange highlight indicates that products are only sold online.
• Rank Columns – 2024 changes in rank from the 2023 list are highlighted as follows:
  • Up 3-5 spots = Lt Blue; Up 6 or more = Green
  • Down 3-5 Spots = Yellow; Down 6 or more = Pink

Let’s get started. Remember, online $ are included in the sales of all companies.

Note:(*) in the 2019 $ column of some companies means the 2019 base was estimated from other sources.

Observations

• Alcohol Retailers first made the list in 2020 as consumers increased dining at home. Strong growth continues.
• Apparel – They were hit hard by the pandemic, but had a strong recovery in 21. The increase slowed to 5.3% in 2024 from +6.5% in 2023. 3 companies had sales decreases, but 4 had lifts over 8% from 23. No drop outs and JD Sports & Urban Outfitters were added. The channel now has 14 companies, the most ever and 50+% more than in 2019 (9). Also, 10 sell Pet. In 2019, there were 3. The average group sales increase was Actual: +5.9%; Real: +4.8% (81%).
• Auto – This group is unchanged from 2019. Their growth continues to slow, +5.0%, down from +6.5% in 23 and +5.5% in 2019. The only negative is Advance Auto is actually & really down from 23 and even really down vs 2019. They did move some pet items in store from online only. The group’s Avg Growth: +8.1%; Real: +3.4%. (42%).
• Commissary/Exchanges – They were on hold from 2019>22. The 22/23 lift was +5.9%, but 23/24 fell to +0.6%. Their Avg Actual Sales Lift is +1.5%, but their Real Sales Lift Avg is -3.2%.
• Convenience Stores – In 23 a big drop by 7-Eleven turned the group negative. In 24, Alimentation Couche-Tard sales were down and Shell fell off the list, but sales for the 4 remaining companies were +3.2% vs 23. The group’s Avg Actual Sales change: +5.3%; Real: +0.4%. (7.5% real)
• The decline in Department Stores was accelerated by the pandemic. Sales in the category grew in 22 because of the addition of Neiman Marcus. 2024 was bad. Only 2 of 7 companies had an actual & real lift vs 23. Vs 2019, 3 had an actual increase but real sales were negative for all. The group’s measurements are all negative. J.C. Penny, a hallmark in the department store channel, has by far the worst performance. Avg Growth: -2.5%; Real: -4.4%
• Drug Stores – Rite Aid filed for bankruptcy in 23 and have the only sales drop vs 23. Health Mart is really down. All have been closing stores since 2019. Good Neighbor & Rite Aid are actually & really down vs 19 but even Walgreens is really down. Actual Avg: +3.2%; Real: +1.6% (50% real). CVS has the most growth, but mainly from acquisitions

• Electronics/Entertainment – Sales vs 23 fell for all but Amazon & Apple but the Amazon increase was big enough to turn the group positive. Store closures continued, especially for electronics retailers.
  • Amazon Retail growth increased in 24 but is still only 66% of their average 19>23 growth. However, 85% is Real.
  • 3 were actually down vs 19 (4 real). Dell had the worst Actual, -8.2%. QVC had the worst Real, -8.4%.
  • 4 of 5 Electronics stores were down vs 23 but only 3 were down vs 2019. They continue to close stores. However, strong deflation has pushed real sales up so only Dell and Verizon are “really” down vs 2019.
  • Group avg growth, Actual: +8.3%; Real: +8.2%. Deflation in electronics was strong enough to impact the group.
• Farm– Tractor Supply growth slowed to 2.2% from 3.4% in 23 & 11.4% in 22. Avg Actual: +12.3%; Real: +7.9% (64%).
• Hobby & Crafts– Vs 23, all measurements are negative. Hobby Lobby is by far the best performer vs 2019. In fact, Michael’s sales are really down. Avg Group Growth: 3.5%; Real: +1.5%. 43% is real.
• Home Goods – Vs 23 the group and all but AVB & Overstock are down. Due to deflation, only Amway is really down. Vs 2019, only Amway is actually & really down, but Ikea is also really down. Avg growth: +4.5%; Real: +2.0% (44%).
• Home Improvement/Hardware – Sales vs last year turned negative in 23, -2.5%. The situation flipped in 24 to +2.0%. Lowes had the only drop – actual & real. Strong deflation helped.
  • Sales vs 2019 are even better. All measurements are positive but real for Menards, -10.4%.
  • Avg Actual Growth: +6.6%; Real: +2.5% ( 38% “Real” growth)
• Jewelry – Signet sales continued to drop, but at a slower rate, -4.9% vs -12.9% in 23. Avg: 8.1%; Real: 5.2% (64%).
• Mass Merchants have 3 of the 7 largest volume retailers in America – Wal-Mart, Costco and Target. However, the value and selection offered by the whole group has increased its importance to consumers due to the pandemic.
  • Wal-Mart $ were up 6.5% in 2024, below 6.9% in 2023, 8.7% in 2022 and their average 19>24 increase in sales: +7.3%. Their business is driven by SuperCenters. Groceries drove up cumulative inflation so their real sales avg increase was 4.1%, despite deflation in many general merchandise categories. 56% of their sales are real.
  • Costco’s 2024 $ increase was +4.4%, down from +6.8% in 2023, radically less than +16.9% in 2022 and even 58% below their 10.4% 19>24 average. Average real growth was 7.1% (68%). They continue to open new stores and expand their internet offerings.
  • Target – After 6 consecutive annual sales increases, sales fell -1.6% in 2023, but turned slightly positive in 2024, +0.8%. Their growth peaked at +13.2% in 2021. Avg Growth: 6.7%; Real Growth: 3.5%, 52% real. They continue to open more supercenters. However, their key growth strategy is to expand the product mix in their discount stores, especially by adding more fresh groceries.
  • Meijer’s $ales continue to slow, +2.3%, down from 3.7% in 23, 5.6% in 22 and less than half of their avg of 4.9%. Their avg real growth is 1.7%, so only 35% is real.
  • BJ’s growth rose to 5.6%, up from +4.6% in 23, but down from +22.8% in 22. They are still the growth leader vs 2019, +71.5% in sales. Avg growth: +11.4%; Real: +8.0%, 70% real.
  • We should note that Costco ranks 2^nd in both comparisons vs 2019 and Sam’s Club is a significant share of Wal-Mart’s total sales. Mass Merchants are the biggest category and Club stores have moved to the retail forefront. Mass Merchant Avg growth: +7.8%; Real: +4.6%, 59% real.

• Office Supply Stores – This channel continues its consistent decline as Consumers maintain their move to online ordering of these products. Only Staples remains on the list. All Staples comparisons are negative, and their Avg Growth is: -3.0%; Real: -8.2%.
• Pet Stores growth in 24 was +2.2%, down from +6.0% in 23, +7.3% in 22 and a big drop from their 21 peak, +22.3%, but they are up +57.6% from 2019. Most of the growth in all measurements is coming from Chewy’s online sales. Pet Store Avg Growth: +9.5%; Real: +6.0%, 63%.
  • With the strong consumer movement to online purchasing, Chewy is still the big story in this channel. They have the most sales. Their 24 lift was +6.4%, down from +10.4% in 23, 13.6% in 22 and +24.4% in 21, but 129% of the Pet Store group’s 2024 $ increase. Their 93.2% sales increase vs 2019 is also 2.5 times that of the retail outlets. Avg Growth rate: +14.1%; Real: +10.4%. 74% of their big increase is real.
  • PetSmart’s 24 growth was only +0.1%, down from +2.0% in 23, +2.2% in 22 and radically below +23.1% in 21. Real Sales are -0.1% in 24 but actual sales are still up +35.3% from 2019. Their average growth rate is +6.2%. Real growth is +2.8%, 45%. The real % is far below Chewy’s, but not too bad.
  • Petco’s sales were -2.7% in 24, a big change from +3.7% in 23, +4.1% in 22 and +17.6% in 21. Their growth since 2019 is +36.7%, slightly ahead of PetSmart. Avg growth: +6.5%; Real: +3.0%, 46%. A big difference from PetSmart is that Petco has cut back on their retail stores.
• Small Format Value Stores – These stores offer value and convenience. Since Big Lots filed for bankruptcy and fell off the list, the group is now only $ Stores.
  • Group sales increased +4.1%, down from +4.7% in 23. Avg 19>23 Growth: +6.9%; Real: +2.9%, 42%.
  • Dollar General is larger and the growth leader, +4.9% in 24 and +46.2% from 2019. Avg Growth: +7.9%; Real: +4.6%, 58%. Dollar Tree was the growth leader in 23, +8.3%. In 24 they were +3.1% vs 23 and +33.9% vs 2019. Their Avg Growth is +6.0%; Real growth was +2.8%, 47%.
• Sporting Goods – 24 Sales: +0.5%, much better than -0.2% in 23 but far below +13.6% in 21. Camping World & Academy were again down vs last year, but all are up vs 19. Avg $ Growth: +5.4%; Real: +3.2%, 59%.
  • Dick’s has the best $ performance vs 23 (+4.1%) & 19 (+53.6%). Avg: 9.0%; Real: 6.7%, 68%.
  • Camping World Avg Growth: +4.6%; Real: +2.4%, 52%.; Academy Avg Growth: +3.2%; Real: +1.1%, 34%.
  • Bass Pro is all positive vs 23 & 19, but has the worst performance. Avg Growth: +2.4%; Real: +0.3%, 5%.
• Supermarkets – 1 drop out – Southeastern Grocers (acquisitions) and 1 addition – Grocery Outlet. They are still the biggest group with 24 companies. Avg Growth: +5.9%; Real: 1.0%, 17%.
  • 6 were down vs 23. 2 more were really down. Biggest Changes: Save-A-Lot, -7.3%; Aldi, +13.5% (acquisitions)
  • Vs 2019, only Save-A-Lot was actually down, but 8 more were really down – sold less product.
  • Sales continue to increase but you see the impact of cumulative inflation – only 17% of the 19>24 growth is real.
  • With $583B in sales and all stores carrying Pet Products, this group is definitely essential both to the Retail Market and the Pet Industry.

Wrapping it up!

This report is focused on 2024 but we can also see the continued evolution of the Retail Marketplace. In 2020 many non-essential retailers were hit with restrictions and closures. On the plus side, consumers turned their focus to essentials and their homes. This helped drive incredible growth in many retail channels.

In 2021 the Total Retail market moved into a full recovery with spectacular growth. Many channels showed a strong sales rebound from 2020. Others built upon their pandemic success while many returned to a more normal growth pattern. However, a few continued to decline. The Top 100 companies had participants in all of these patterns.

In 2022 we were hit by strong inflation in many categories which slowed both actual and real growth. Inflation slowed in 23 but we still see its cumulative impact in the reduced annual increases. Plus, sales of 36 retailers actually fell vs 2023.

The Top 100 is a contest with the winners changing slightly every year. It is a critical part of the U.S. Market, accounting for almost 60% of Relevant Retail Revenue and 36+% of Total Retail. Sales have increased annually but the Top 100’s share of Total Retail peaked in 2020 and in 2019 for Relevant Retail and steadily declined until 2024. The Top 10 has had stronger annual growth but sales in the #11>100 group actually fell in 2020 and their 19>24 increase is only 37% of the Top 10’s lift. We also must remember our new hero – Relevant Retail, not in the Top 100. The 19>24 Sales by these smaller guys are +57.5%, 32% more than the Top 10. Their performance slowed in 24 but it is still amazing.

Pet Products are an important part of the success of the Top 100. 88 companies (96.9% of $) sell Pet items in stores and/or online. The 74 companies that stock pet products in their stores generated $2.77T in total sales. How much was from pet? Let’s “Do the math”. If we take out the $25.5B done by Top 100 Pet stores and the remaining companies generated only 1.7% of their sales from Pet, we’re looking at $46.6B in Pet Products sales from 71 non-pet sources! (The 1.7% Pet share is based on the Economic Census.) If you add Pet Stores & Chewy into the $, Pet Products sales for the Top 100 are $72.1B. The APPA reported $99.1B in Pet Products sales for 24. That means 71 mass market retailers accounted for 47.0% of all the Pet Products sold in the U.S. and 74 Top 100 companies generated 72.8%. Pet Products are widespread in the retail market but the $ are concentrated. Pet Industry participants should monitor the Top 100.

Retail sales increases slowed in 2024 as cumulative inflation became a major factor. The situation is still evolving but the Top 100 will always be a critical part of U.S. Retail. I hope that this report helped put this group into a better perspective.

In August, the Commodities inflation CPI rose to 1.3% from 0.7% and Total Retail sales were +3.5% vs 24, -25.6% below their avg August Lift. The Relevant Retail CPI rose to 1.6% from 1.2% and sales were +3.7% vs 24, -21.1% below avg. There are other factors impacting sales, including high cumulative inflation and pre-tarifflation binge buying. It is a complex situation. Progress has slowed and the problem with YOY drops and the size of sales lifts is still very real.

We’ll continue to track the retail market with data from 2 reports provided by the Census Bureau and factor in a targeted CPI. The reports are the Monthly and the Advance Retail Sales Reports. Both are derived from sales data gathered from retailers across the U.S. and are published monthly at the same time. The Advance Report has a smaller sample size so it can be published quickly – about 2 weeks after month end. The Monthly Report includes data from all respondents, so it takes longer to compile the data – about 6 weeks. Although the sample size for the Advance report is smaller, the results over the years have proven it to be statistically accurate with the Monthly reports. The biggest difference is that the full sample in the Monthly report allows us to “drill” a little deeper into the retail channels.

We will begin with the July Monthly Report and then go to the August Advance Report. Our focus is comparing to last year but also 21 & 19. We’ll show both actual and the “real” change in sales as we factor inflation into the data.

Both reports include the following:

• Total Retail, Restaurants, Auto, Gas Stations and Relevant Retail (removing Restaurants, Auto and Gas)
• Individual Channel Data – This is more detailed in the Monthly reports, and we’ll focus on Pet Relevant Channels.

The data will be presented in detailed charts to facilitate visual comparison between groups/channels. The charts will show 11 separate measurements. To save space they will be displayed in a stacked bar format for the channel charts.

• Current Month change – % & $ vs previous month
• Current Month change – % & $ vs same month last year and vs 2021.
  • Current Month Real change vs last year and vs 2021 – % factoring in inflation
• Current Ytd change – % & $ for this year vs last year, 2021 & 2019.
  • Current Ytd Real change % for this year vs last year and vs 2021 and 2019
• Monthly & Ytd $ & CPIs for this year vs last year and vs 2021 which are targeted by channel will also be shown. (CPI Details are at the end of the report)

First, the July Monthly. All were up from June and there were only 2 actual YOY sales drops, Gas Stations vs 24. Note: They are now selling more product than in 2019. 3 groups are “all positive”, the same as March>June. Relevant Retail has been all positive in 16 of the last 20 months and in 12 of the last 14. ($ are Not Seasonally Adjusted)

The July Monthly is $0.8B more than the Advance report. Restaurants: +$0.6B; Auto: -$0.1B; Gas Stations: +$0.3B; Relevant Retail: No Chge. All were up from June. A Jun>Jul increase in Total Retail  has only happened in 55% of the years since 1992 and the 3.9% lift was 13 times more than the 0.3% average. There were only 2 YOY drops in actual sales, the same as Mar>Jun. There was only 1 “real” sales drop, 2 less than May/Jun and down radically from 4 in April and 5 in March. 3 groups were again “all positive” (Mar>Jul). Restaurants still have the biggest increases vs 21 & 19 but Relevant Retail stayed at the top of “real” performance vs 2019. However, only 53% of their growth is real.

Now, let’s see how some Key Pet Relevant channels did in July (83% of July Ytd Rel Retl $)

Overall– 6 of 11 were down from June. Vs Jul 24, 9 were actually and “really” up. Vs Jul 21, 9 were up but only 5 were real increases. Vs 2019, Only Dept Strs were actually & really down but Off/Gift/Souv were really down.

• Building Material Stores – The pandemic focus on home has produced sales growth of 29.8% since 2019. Prices for the Bldg/Matl group have inflated 19.7% from 21 and 23.1% from 2019 which is having an impact. Sales vs June were -0.1% for HomeCtr/Hdwe and -11.4% for Farm Stores. Vs other years, Farm stores are actually up for all, but Home Center/Hardware are only actually up vs Jul 21 & 2019. They are really down for all but vs 2019. Farm stores are only really down monthly & Ytd vs 21. Plus, only 18% of the Bldg Materials group’s 19>25 lift was real. Avg 19>25 Growth: HomeCtr/Hdwe: 4.1%, Real: 0.5%; Farm: 6.3%, Real: 2.7%
• Food & Drug – Both are essential. Except for the pandemic food binge buying, they tend to have smaller changes in $. Vs June: Supermarkets: +4.6%; Drug: +1.7%. In terms of inflation, Groceries are over 20 times higher than Drug/Med products. Drug Stores are positive in all measurements and 68% of their 2019>25 growth is real. Supermarkets’ actual $ are up in all comparisons. They are only “really” down monthly and Ytd vs 2021. However, only 9.3% of their 19>25 increase is real growth. Avg 19>25 Growth: Supermarkets: +4.9%, Real: +0.5%; Drug Stores: +5.5%, Real: +3.9%.
• Sporting Goods Stores – They also benefited from the pandemic in that consumers turned to self-entertainment, especially sports & outdoor activities. Sales are up 2.6% from June, but their only positives are vs Jul 24, 2019 & real Ytd vs 2024. Prices are still deflating, -1.3% vs 24. Deflation started in April 23 and is a big change from +1.1% in 22>23 and +7.9% in 21>22. This caused 68.5% of their 31.1% lift since 19 to be real. Avg 19>25 Growth Rate is: +4.6%; Real: +3.3%.
• Gen Mdse Stores – Sales were +0.9% vs June, but all YOY sales – actual & real were up for Club/SupCtrs and $ Stores. Department Stores are negative in all comparisons. Their Actual sales are even -29.9% from 19 (Real: -36.5%). The other channels have an average of 42.9% in real growth. Avg 19>25 Growth: SupCtr/Club: 5.1%, Real: 2.3%; $/Value Strs: +5.4%, Real: +2.6%; Dept. Strs: -5.7%, Real: -7.3%.
• Office, Gift & Souvenir Stores – Sales fell slightly from June, -0.7%, only -$0.02B. They are only really down monthly and Ytd vs 21 & 19. Their recovery started late, but their progress may be slowly restarting again. They have now been actually up vs 2019 for 2 consecutive months. Avg Growth Rate: +0.2%, Real: -1.4%
• Internet/Mail Order – Sales are +7.4% from June to $121.1B, the highest Jan>Oct monthly $ales ever. All measurements are positive, but their YOY growth, +7.1%, is only 49% of their average since 2019. However, 83.0% of their 126.3% growth since 2019 is real. Avg Growth: +14.6%, Real: +12.7%. As expected, they are by far the growth leader since 2019.
• A/O Miscellaneous – Pet Stores are 22>24% of total $. In May 2020 they began their recovery which reached $100B for the first time in 2021. In 2022 their sales dipped in Jan, Jul, Sep>Nov, rose in Dec, fell in Jan>Feb 23, grew Mar>May, fell Jun>Aug, rose Sep>Nov, fell Dec>Jan 24, grew Feb>May, fell Jun>Sep, grew Oct, fell Nov, rose Dec, fell Jan>Feb, grew Mar>May, then fell Jun>Jul. All comparisons are again positive, and they are in 2^nd place, behind the Internet, in the % increase vs 19 and vs 21. Also, 77% of their 71.5% growth since 2019 is real. Average 19>25 Growth: 9.4%, Real: +7.6%

July had a big lift vs June. All Big groups were up but 6 smaller channels were down in $. The YOY July lift was 5.6% below avg for Total but 1.5% above avg for Relevant Retl – much better. Prices are only deflating in 1 channel (the same as June) but cumulative inflation still impacts sales as only 5 channels were really up vs July 21. The Retail Recovery slowly continues. The July commodities CPI of 0.7% rose to 1.3% in August. Let’s see if it impacts Retail.

Jul>Aug sales were only up for 3. A Jul>Aug Total Retail lift has happened in 82% of the years since 1992 but the 0.1% gain is 97% less than the +2.2% avg change. There were 2 YOY $ drops, the same as Apr>Jul. $ for all Big Groups but Gas Stations were up vs Aug 24 but the Total Retail lift of 3.5% vs Aug 24 was 25.6% below their +4.7% 92>24 avg. The Relevant Retail 3.7% increase vs 24 was 21.1% below their +4.7% avg. Inflation is still a factor. The CPI for all commodities is only 1.3% but it is still 11.8% vs 21. There is also some good “real” news. No “real” measurement was down – 1 in July, 3 in May>Jun. Plus, Gas Stations are again “really” up vs 2019 and now 4 Big Groups are all positive, up from 3 in Mar>Jul. Relevant Retail has been all positive in 13 of the last 15 months.

Overall Inflation Reality– The Total Retail CPI rose to 1.3% and the $ lift vs 24 fell to 25.6% below avg. The Restaurant CPI stayed +3.9% but their $ lift was now 14%  above avg. Gas prices rose to -6.5% but they are still in turmoil. Auto inflation rose to 2.6% but it is only 4.9% vs 21. Auto sales grew 3.0% vs 24, 34.8% below avg – pre-tariff buying over. Inflation rose to 1.6% for Relevant Retail. Their lift was 21.1% below avg but they are again all positive. Progress slowed.

Total Retail – Since Jun 20, every month but Apr 23, Jun 24 & Feb 25 has set a monthly $ales record. In 2023>25, Sales were on a roller coaster. Up Jul>Aug, down Sep, up Oct>Dec, down Jan 24, up Feb>Mar, down April, up May, down Jun, up Jul>Aug, down Sep, up Oct>Dec, down Jan>Feb 25, up Mar, down Apr, up May, down Jun, up Jul>Aug. Prices are 1.3% and YOY sales are +3.5%, 25.6% below the 92>24 avg change of 4.7%. 42.2% of the 19>25 growth is real. Prices are still inflating, and cumulative inflation is still impacting sales. Growth: 24>25: 3.8%; Avg 19>25: +6.2%, Real: +2.8%.

Restaurants – They were hit hard by the pandemic and didn’t begin recovery until March 2021. However, they have had strong growth since then, exceeding $1T for the 1^st time in 2023. August $ are up vs 24 and they have the biggest lifts vs 21 & 19. Inflation stayed at 3.9% vs 24 but it is +24.1% vs 21 and +31.5% vs 19. Their 6.3% YOY lift is 14.1% above their +5.5% 92>24 avg. They are all positive again, but just 34.2% of their 57.1% growth since 2019 is real. They are 3^rd in performance behind Relevant & Total Retail. Recovery started late but inflation started early. Growth: 5.5%; Avg 19>25:+7.8%, Real: +3.0%. They just account for 13.8% of Total Retail $, but their strong growth has helped Total Retail.

Auto (Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers) – They overcame the stay-at-home attitude with great deals and advertising. They finished 2020 up 1% vs 2019 and hit a record $1.48T in 2021 but much of it was due to skyrocketing inflation. In 22, sales got on a rollercoaster. Inflation started to drop mid-year, but it caused 4 down months in actual $. Their YE real 2022 sales numbers were even worse, -8.2% vs 21 and -8.9% vs 19. 23 started a sales rollercoaster but the $ hit a record, $1.595T. $ fell in Jan 24, grew Feb>Mar, fell Apr, grew May, fell June, grew Jul>Aug, fell Sep, grew Oct, fell Nov, grew Dec, fell Jan>Feb 25, grew Mar, fell Apr>Jun, rose Jul>Aug. Aug $ were +3.0% vs 24. (34.8% below avg – pretariff buying over). They are now all positive, but just 24.9% of 19>25 growth is real. Growth: 4.7%; Avg 19>25: +5.3%, Real: +1.4%

Gas Stations – Gas Stations were hit hard by “stay at home”. They started recovery in Mar 21, and inflation began. Sales got on a rollercoaster in 22 but set a record, $583B. Inflation started to slow in Aug and prices slightly deflated in Dec & Feb 23, then strongly fell in Mar>Jul to -20.2%. In Aug they rose to -3.7%. In Sep they were +2.7% but began deflating to -4.2% in Feb 24. In Mar>May $ grew, fell Jun, rose July, fell Aug/Sep, rose Oct, fell Nov>Feb, rose Mar>May, fell Jun, rose Jul, fell Aug. Aug $ vs 24: -1.6% (4.9% avg) but up vs A/O years. Real $ are again all positive. Growth: -3.2%; Avg 19>25: +3.2%, Real: 0.04%. They show the cumulative impact of inflation and how deflation can be both positive & negative.

Relevant Retail – Less Auto, Gas and Restaurants – They account for ≈60% of Total Retail $ in a variety of channels, so they took many different paths through the pandemic. Their only down month until Feb 25 was April 2020, and they led the way in Total Retail’s recovery. Sales got on a roller coaster in 2022, but all months set new records with December reaching a new all-time high, $481B, and an annual record of $4.81T. In 2023, the roller coaster continued. A December lift set a new monthly record of $494.7B & an annual record of $4.997T. Sales fell Jan>Feb 24, rose Mar, fell Apr, rose in May, fell in June, rose Jul>Aug, fell Sep, rose Oct>Jan 25, fell Feb, rose Mar>May, fell Jun, rose Jul, fell Aug. The Aug 3.7% YOY lift is 21.1% below their 92>24 avg of +4.7%. They are all positive again and 53% of their 46.3% 19>25 growth is real, #1 in performance. Growth: 4.0%; Avg 19>25: +6.5%, Real: +3.7%. In 2024 their inflation rate dropped from 3.2% to 0.1%, stabilized at 0.5% Dec>Jan, rose to 0.7% in Mar, slowed to 0.6% in Apr, rose to 0.8% in May, 1.2% in Jun>Jul & 1.6% in Aug. Inflation is low, but its cumulative impact can slow growth. We’ll see what happens.

YOY inflation is low, but cumulative & impending lifts can affect sales. In Aug, 2 actual YOY $ comparisons were negative, the same as Mar>Jul. In Aug, there were no real drops – 1 in July, 3 in June. In July, Gas Stations were down vs 24, but all but Total had above avg lifts. In August, Gas Stations were again down, but only Restaurants had an above average lift. However, in August, 4 big groups were now all positive. Relevant Retail has now been all positive in 13 of the last 15 months. August sales rose vs July, but the lift size was much less than anticipated. The Retail recovery is slowing again.

Here’s a more detailed look at August by Key Channels (98% of August Ytd Rel Retl $)

• Relevant Retail: Growth: +4.1%; Avg 19>25: +6.5%, Real: +3.7%.6 of 11 were up from July. Vs Aug 24: 9 were up, Real: 9, Vs Aug 21: 9 were up, Real: 7. Vs 19: Only Dept Stores were down – both actually & really.
• All Department Stores – This group was struggling before the pandemic hit them hard. They began recovery in March 2021. Sales are +5.1% from July, but all actual & real YOY measurements are negative. Their -1.9% July YOY drop is much better than their -4.8% avg change. Growth: -2.7%; Avg 19>25: -5.9%, Real: -7.5%.
• Club/SuprCtr/$- They fueled a big part of the recovery because they focus on value which has broad consumer appeal. $ales are +4.0% from July, and they are positive in all measurements. However, only 42.3% of their 35.0% 19>25 lift is real. Their 1.9% YOY Aug lift is -77% below their 92>24 avg of +8.4%. Growth: 2.4%; Avg 19>25: +5.1%, Real: +2.3%.
• Grocery- They depend on frequent purchases, so their changes are usually less radical. Actual $ are -0.3% from July and positive in all actual comparisons. Cumulative inflation has hit them hard as real $ are down monthly & Ytd vs 21. Only 7% of 19>25 growth is real & their 3.0% YOY lift is 4.6% below avg. Growth: 2.9%; Avg 19>25: +4.8%, Real: +0.4%.
• Health/Drug Stores – Many stores are essential, but consumers visit less frequently than Grocery stores. $ are -0.2% from July but they are positive in all comparisons. Inflation has been relatively low so 67% of their 35.7% 19>25 growth is real. However, their +3.3% YOY lift vs Aug 24 is 37.3% below avg. Growth: 6.6%; Avg 19>25: +5.2%, Real: +3.6%
• Clothing and Accessories – Clothes mattered less if you stayed home. That changed in March 2021 with strong growth through 2022. Sales are +5.9% from July and positive in all measurements. 69% of their 19>25 growth is real. $ are +7.6% vs Aug 24, 1.5 times more than their Aug avg (pre-tariff buying). Growth: 4.8%; Avg 19>25: +3.3%, Real: +2.3%
• Home Furnishings – In mid-2020 consumers’ focus turned to their homes and furniture became a priority. Inflation has slowed to 2.6%. $ are +1.5% from July and are only really down monthly & Ytd vs 21. However, only 18% of their 19>25 growth is real. YOY vs Aug 24: +2.9%, 9% below avg – pre-tariff buying over. Growth: 5.4%; Avg 19>25:+2.8%, Real:+0.5%
• Electronic & Appliances – They have had many issues. Sales fell in Apr>May of 2020 and didn’t reach 2019 levels until March 21. $ are +1.1% from July but they are only actually up vs Aug 24 & 19. Strong deflation drove real numbers up, so all comparisons are positive. Sales are +2.6% vs Aug 24, 14% above avg. Growth: -0.6%; Avg 19>25: 0.6%, Real: +3.7%.
• Building Material, Farm & Garden & Hardware – They truly benefited from the consumers’ focus on home. In 2022 the lift slowed as inflation grew to double digits. Prices turned up in Apr>Aug 25 and sales are -7.0% from July. Actual $ are only up monthly & Ytd vs 21 and vs 2019. Real sales are down for all but vs 2019. Just 15.8% of their 19>25 sales growth is real. YOY sales vs Aug 24 were -5.7%. Avg. is +4.3%. Growth: -1.1%; Avg 19>25: +4.4%, Real: +0.8%.
• Sporting Goods, Hobby and Book Stores – Consumers turned their attention to recreation and Sporting Goods stores sales took off. Book & Hobby Stores recovered more slowly. They have been on a sales rollercoaster since June 24 and $ are +11.4% from July. Actual & real sales are now only down Ytd vs 21. 81% of their 19>25 growth is real. YOY Sales vs Aug 24 are +4.4%, 49% above avg. Growth: +0.5%; Avg 19>25: +3.9%, Real: +3.2%.
• All Miscellaneous Stores – Pet Stores have been a key part of the strong and growing recovery of this group. They finished 2020 at +0.9% but sales took off in March 21 and have continued to grow. Sales are -4.0% vs July but positive in all comparisons. They are 2^nd in the % increases vs 19 & vs 21 and 71.7% of their 51.3% 19>25 growth is real. Plus, their 6.8% YOY Aug lift is 63% more than their 92>24 avg of +4.2%. Growth: +8.4%; Avg 19>25: +7.1%, Real: 5.4%.
• NonStore Retailers – 90% of their $ comes from Internet/Mail Order/TV. The pandemic accelerated online spending. They ended 2020 +21.4%. The growth continued in 2021 as sales exceeded $100B for the 1^st time and they broke the $1 Trillion barrier. $ are -3.5% from July and their YOY lift of 8.2% is -21% below the 10.3% avg. However, they are positive in all comparisons and 82% of their 114.3% 19>25 growth is real. Growth: 6.9%; Avg 19>25: +13.5%, Real: +11.6%.

Recap – Driven by Relevant Retail, the Pandemic recovery was widespread by Y/E 2021. In 2022 we were hit with the strongest inflation in 40 years. Overall inflation has slowed considerably from its Jun 22 peak but again only 3 channels are deflating, down from 5 in May. Deflation helps, but cumulative inflation can still have a negative impact – slowed YOY growth and even sales drops. $ only rose from July for 6 of 11 channels. 5 of the 6 lifts were below avg and Relevant Retail was -0.6% vs a +2.9% avg. The biggest concern is still YOY drops and smaller lifts. Relevant Retail’s 3.7% lift vs Aug 24 was 21.1% below avg. 2 channels had a YOY drop vs Aug 24, 1 less than July but 1 more than June. 9 channels had YOY lifts, up 1 from July but down 1 from June. However, only 4 of the 9 lifts were above avg, down from 5 in July. Here is some good news. In Mar>Jul 3 Big Groups were all positive. That grew to 4 in Aug. In July, 5 smaller channels were also all positive, up from 4 in June. That stayed the same in August. Relevant Retail has now been all positive in 13 of the last 15 months. The situation is definitely mixed and still concerning as the progress is slowing.

Finally, here are the details and updated inflation rates for the CPIs used to calculate the impact of inflation on retail groups and channels. This includes special aggregate CPIs created with the instruction and guidance of personnel from the US BLS. I also researched data from the last Economic Census to review the share of sales by product category for the various channels to help in selecting what expenditures to include in specific aggregates. Of course, none of these specially created aggregates are 100% accurate but they are much closer than the overall CPI or available aggregates. The data also includes the CPI changes vs 2021 to show cumulative inflation.

Monthly YOY CPI changes of 0.2% or more are highlighted. (Green = lower; Pink = higher)

Here are some answers to some obvious questions. Note: All Relative Retail but Furniture, Drugs & Sporting Goods increased prices.

1. Why is the group for Nonstore different from the Internet?
   • Non-store is not all internet. It also includes Fuel Oil Dealers, the non-motor fuel Energy Commodity.
2. Why is there no Food at home included in Nonstore or Internet?
   • Online Grocery purchasing is becoming popular, but almost all is from companies whose major business is brick ‘n mortar. These online sales are recorded under their primary channel.
3. 5 Channels have the same CPI aggregate but represent a variety of business types.
   • They also have a wide range of product types. Rather than try to build aggregates of a multitude of small expenditure categories, it seemed better to eliminate the biggest, influential groups that they don’t sell. This method is not perfect, but it is certainly closer than any existing aggregate.
4. Why are Grocery and Supermarkets only tied to the Grocery CPI?
   • According to the Economic Census, 76% of their sales comes from Grocery products. Grocery Products are the driver. The balance of their sales comes from a collection of a multitude of categories.
5. What about Drug/Health Stores only being tied to Medical Commodities.
   • An answer similar to the one for Grocery/Supermarkets. However, in this case Medical Commodities account for over 80% of these stores’ total sales.
6. Why do SuperCtrs/Clubs and $ Stores have the same CPI?
   • Big Stores sell more fresh groceries, Groceries account for ¼ of $ Store sales. Same Ctgys – different mix.