Retail Channel $ Update – April Monthly & May Advance

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In May, YOY Commodities’ inflation rose to 5.5% from 4.6%. Strong current inflation rates (like gasoline) or just high cumulative inflation vs 21 can impact consumer spending and slow actual and/or real $ales growth.  We saw evidence of both of these in May. Total Retail $ were +5.2% vs 25, 11.3% above the avg 92>25 lift. However, Relevant Retail was +4.6%, -1.8% below their May avg. The situation is definitely complex and there is still a long road to full recovery. We’ll continue to track the retail market with data from 2 reports provided by the Census Bureau and factor in a targeted CPI.

The Census Bureau Reports are the Monthly and the Advance Retail Sales Reports. Both are derived from sales data gathered from retailers across the U.S. and are published monthly at the same time. The Advance Report has a smaller sample size so it can be published quickly – normally, 2 weeks after month end. The Monthly Report includes data from all respondents, so it takes longer to compile the data – about 6 weeks. Although the sample size for the Advance report is smaller, the results over the years have proven it to be statistically accurate with the Monthly reports. The biggest difference is that the full sample in the Monthly report allows us to “drill” a little deeper into the retail channels.

We will begin with the April Monthly Report and then go to the May Advance Report. Our focus is comparing to last year but also 21 & 19. We’ll show both actual and the “real” change in sales as we factor inflation into the data.

Both reports include the following:

  • Total Retail, Restaurants, Auto, Gas Stations and Relevant Retail (removing Restaurants, Auto and Gas)
  • Individual Channel Data – This is more detailed in the Monthly reports, and we’ll focus on Pet Relevant Channels.

The data will be presented in detailed charts to facilitate visual comparison between groups/channels. The charts will show 11 separate measurements. To save space they will be displayed in a stacked bar format for the channel charts.

  • Current Month change – % & $ vs previous month
  • Current Month change – % & $ vs same month last year and vs 2021.
    • Current Month Real change vs last year and vs 2021 – % factoring in inflation
  • Current Ytd change – % & $ for this year vs last year, 2021 & 2019.
    • Current Ytd Real change % for this year vs last year and vs 2021 and 2019
  • Monthly & Ytd $ & CPIs for this year vs last year and vs 2021 which are targeted by channel will also be shown. (CPI Details are at the end of the report)

First, the April Monthly. All but Gas Stations were down from March and there were 2 actual sales drops – monthly & ytd vs 25 in Auto. There were 9 “real” drops and Gas Stations are still selling less product than in 2019. However, Relevant Retail is all positive again. They’ve been all positive in 23 of the last 25 months. ($ are Not Seasonally Adjusted)

The April Monthly is $0.9B less than the Advance report. Restaurants: -$0.2B; Auto: -$1.2B; Gas Stations: +$0.1B; Relevant Retail: +$0.2B. The drops from Mar were small but expected. A Mar>Apr decrease in Total Retail  has happened in all but 5 years since 1992. However, the -0.8% drop was 54% smaller than the -1.8% avg. There were 2 drops in actual sales – Monthly & Ytd vs 25 for Auto. There were 9 “real” sales drops, 7 in Mar, but none in Dec>Feb. Only Relevant Retail was all positive, down from 2 in Mar & 4 in Feb. Restaurants still have the biggest increases vs 21 & 19 but Relevant Retail stayed at the top of “real” performance vs 2019. However, only 52.7% of their growth is real.

Now, let’s see how some Key Pet Relevant channels did in April in the Stacked Bar Graph Format

Overall– Only 3 of 11 were up from Mar. Vs Apr 25, 11 were actually and 8 “really” up. Vs Apr 21, 7 were up but only 4 were real lifts. Vs 2019, Only Dept Strs & Off/Gift/Souv were actually & really down.

  • Building Material Stores – The pandemic focus on home has produced $ growth of 35.9% since 2019. Prices for the group are +24.9% from 21 and +28.7% from 2019, which is impactful. With an ongoing Spring lift, HomCtr/Hdwe Sales vs Mar were +10.6% and +14.4% for Farm. Vs other years, HomCtr/Hdwe are actually up & really down for all but 2019 & vs Apr 21. Farm stores are actually up for all, but their Real $ were down vs 21. Bldg Mat’s 19>26 real growth was 5.6%. avg: 0.8%. HomeCtr/Hdwe: Ytd: 3.4%; Avg 19>26 Growth: 4.1%, Real: 0.4%; Farm: Ytd: +6.7%; Avg: 6.1%, Real: 2.4%
  • Food & Drug – Both are essential. Except for the COVID food binge, they tend to have smaller changes in $. Vs Mar: Supermarkets: -0.6%; Drug: -2.0%. In terms of inflation, the Groceries rate is 2.9%, while Drug/Med products started deflating, -0.5%. Drug Stores are positive in all measurements and 68.9% of their 2019>26 growth is real. Supermarkets’ actual $ are up in all comparisons, but they are only “really” up vs 2019. Plus, only 6.6% of their 19>26 increase is real growth. Supermarkets: Ytd: +0.7%; Avg 19>26: +4.4%, Real: +0.3%; Drug Stores: Ytd: +2.3%; Avg: +4.8%, Real: +3.5%.
  • Sporting Goods Stores – They also benefited from the pandemic in that consumers turned to self-entertainment, especially sports & outdoor activities. Sales are -3.8% from Mar and they are actually & really negative vs 21. Prices stopped deflating vs last year. Deflation started in April 23 and was a big change from +1.1% in 22>23 & +7.9% in 21>22. This caused 67.5% of their 42% lift since 2019 to be real. Ytd: 6.6%; Avg 19>26: +5.1%; Real: +3.6%
  • Gen Mdse Stores – $ vs Mar: SupCtr/Club; -3.4%; $ Strs: -1.6%; Dept Strs: +5.5%. All but 1 YOY comparison were up for $ Strs & SupCtr/Club. Dept Stores are negative for all but vs Mar 25 & actual Ytd vs 21. Their Actual sales are even -30.4% from 19 (real:-38.2%). The other channels have an average of 41.9% in real growth. SupCtr/Club: Ytd: +2.6%; Avg 19>26: 4.8%, Real: 2.1%; $/Value Strs: Ytd: +4.9%; Avg: +5.2%, Real: +2.5%; Dept. Strs: Ytd: -1.9%; Avg: -5.0%, Real: -6.6%.
  • Office, Gift & Souvenir Stores– Sales are -2.3% from Mar. They are actually/really up vs Apr 25 & actually up Ytd 25 & 21. All others are down. Their recovery restarted Jun/Jul 25, but took off in Oct, slowed Nov, grew Dec, slowed Jan>Mar, then grew in Apr because their Mar>Apr drop was 50% of avg. Ytd: +0.7%;Avg Growth Rate: -0.4%, Real: -2.1%
  • Internet/Mail Order – Sales are -0.4% from Mar but still set an Apr record. All YOY measurements are positive, but their YOY growth, +10.4%, is only 73.2% of their average since 2019. However, 81.4% of their 153.7% growth since 2019 is real. Ytd: +10.4%; Avg Growth: +14.2%, Real: +12.3%. As expected, they are by far the growth leader since 2019.
  • A/O Miscellaneous – Pet Stores are 22>24% of total $. In May 2020 they began recovery which reached $100B for the 1st time in 21. In 22 their $ dipped in Jan, Jul, Sep>Nov, rose Dec, fell Jan>Feb 23, grew Mar>May, fell Jun>Aug, rose Sep>Nov, fell Dec>Jan 24, grew Feb>May, fell Jun>Sep, grew Oct, fell Nov, rose Dec, fell Jan>Feb, grew Mar>May, fell Jun>Sep, rose Oct, fell Nov, rose Dec, fell Jan, rose Feb/Mar, fell Apr. All comparisons are positive, and they are #2 in the increase vs 19 & vs 21. Also, 77% of their 96% growth since 2019 is real. Ytd: +12.1%; Avg 19>26: 10.1%, Real: +8.3%

Apr had its usual drop vs Mar, but the Rel Retl drop was 35% less than avg. 8 of 11 small channels were down. The YOY lift vs 25 was 5% below avg for Total, but 7% above avg for Relevant Retl. 4 big groups & 11 smaller channels had lifts. Prices are only deflating in Auto & Drug, but cumulative inflation has an impact, as only 4 of 11 channels were really up vs Apr 21. The Recovery is slow. In May, the commodities CPI rose from 4.6% to 5.5%. Let’s see if it impacts Retail.

All were up from Apr. An Apr>May Total Retail lift has happened in every year since 1992. The 5.0% lift is 18% less than the 6.1% avg. There were no YOY $ drops, 2 less than Apr. All Big Groups were up vs 25 and the Total Retail lift of 5.2% vs May 25 was 11.3% above their +4.7% 92>25 avg. However, the Relevant Retail 4.6% increase vs May 25 was -1.8% below their +4.7% avg. Inflation is a complex factor. The CPI for all commodities rose to 5.5% from 4.6% in Apr and it is still +20.3% vs 21. There is some bad “real” news. In Jan/Feb, no “real” measurement was down. In Mar there were 7, in Apr 9 & in May 10. Plus, Gas Stations are now selling less Gas than in all comparison yrs. Also, again only 1 Big Group is all positive. In Dec>Feb there were 4. Positive Note: Relevant Retail has now been all positive in 24 of the last 26 months.

Overall Inflation Reality– The Total Retail CPI rose to 5.5% but the $ lift vs 25 was 11.3% above avg. The Restaurant CPI slowed to +3.5% but their $ lift was 58.0% below avg. The Gas CPI rose from 29.1% to +40.9%. They are in true turmoil. Auto inflation is  -0.6% vs 25 but +10.3% vs 21. Sales were +1.8% vs 25. Their avg change is +4.4%. Inflation slowed to 2.5% for Relevant Retail but their lift was 1.8% below avg. They are again all positive. Progress is slow & complex in 26.

Total Retail – Since Jun 20, every month but Apr 23, Jun 24 & Feb 25 has set a monthly $ record. In 23>26, Sales got on a roller coaster. Up Oct>Dec, down Jan 24, up Feb>Mar, down Apr, up May, down Jun, up Jul>Aug, down Sep, up Oct>Dec, down Jan>Feb 25, up Mar, down Apr, up May, down Jun, up Jul>Aug, down Sep, up Oct, down Nov, up Dec, down Jan & Feb, up Mar, down Apr, up May. Prices are 5.5% and YOY $ are +5.2%, 11.3% above avg. 41% of 19>26 growth is real. The CPI rose due to Gasoline, but cumulative inflation is impacting sales. Growth: 25>26: 4.3%;Avg 19>26: +6.1%, Real: +2.8%

Restaurants – They were hit hard by the pandemic and didn’t begin recovery until Mar 21. However, they have had strong growth since then, exceeding $1T for the 1st time in 23. May $ are +2.4% vs 25 and they have the biggest lifts vs 21 & 19. Inflation slowed to 3.5% vs last year, but it is +29.6% vs 21 and +35.7% vs 19. Their 2.4% YOY lift is 58.0% below their +5.7% 92>25 avg. In Mar they stopped being all positive and in May just 32.4% of their 63.6% growth since 2019 is real. They are tied for 3rd in performance. Recovery started late but inflation started early. Growth: 3.4%; Avg 19>26: +7.3%, Real: +2.7%. They just account for 13.7% of Total Retail $, but their strong growth has helped Total Retail.

Auto (Motor Vehicle/Parts Dealers) – They overcame the stay-at-home attitude with deals & advertising. They finished 2020 up 1% vs 2019 and hit a record $1.48T in 2021 but much was due to high prices. In 22, sales got on a rollercoaster. Inflation started to drop mid-year, but it caused 4 down months in $. Their YE real 22 sales numbers were even worse, -8.2% vs 21 and -8.9% vs 19. 23 began a sales rollercoaster but the $ hit a record, $1.595T. $ fell Jan 24, grew Feb/Mar, fell Apr, grew May, fell June, grew Jul/Aug, fell Sep, grew Oct, fell Nov, grew Dec, fell Jan/Feb 25, grew Mar, fell Apr>Jun, rose Jul/Aug, fell Sep, rose Oct, fell Nov, rose Dec, fell Jan, rose Feb, fell Mar/Apr, rose May. May $ were +1.8% vs 25. Avg: 4.4%. They are not all positive and just 32% of 19>26 growth is real. Growth: 0.3%; Avg 19>26: +4.9%, Real: +1.7%

Gas Stations – Gas Stations were hit hard by “stay at home”. They started recovery in Mar 21, and inflation began. Sales got on a rollercoaster in 22 but set a record, $583B. Inflation started to slow in Aug and prices slightly deflated in Dec & Feb 23, then strongly fell in Mar>Jul to -20.2%. In Sep they were +2.7% but began deflating to -4.2% in Feb 24. In Mar>May $ grew, fell Jun, rose July, fell Aug/Sep, rose Oct, fell Nov>Feb 25, rose Mar>May, fell Jun, rose Jul, fell Aug>Oct, up Nov, fell Dec/Jan, skyrocketed Feb>May. May $ vs 25: +25.4% (4.4% avg). No $ downs, but all real $ are down. Growth: +12.9%; Avg 19>26:+4.6%, Real: -0.5%. They show that strong, current inflation can be “really” negative.

Relevant Retail – Less Auto, Gas and Restaurants– They account for ≈60% of Total Retail $ in a variety of channels. Their only down month until Feb 25 was Apr 20, and they led the way in Retail’s recovery. Sales got on a roller coaster in 22, but all months set new records with Dec reaching a new all-time high, $481B, and an annual record of $4.81T. In 23, the roller coaster continued. A Dec lift set a monthly record of $494.7B & an annual record of $4.997T. The roller coaster restarted in 24. $ rose Oct>Jan 25, fell Feb, rose Mar>May, fell Jun, rose Jul, fell Aug/Sep, rose Oct>Dec, fell Jan>Feb 26, rose Mar, fell Apr, rose May. The May 4.6% YOY lift is 1.8% below their 92>25 avg of +4.7%. They are all positive again and 52% of their 54% 19>26 growth is real, again #1 in performance. Growth: 4.9%; Avg 19>26: +6.3%, Real: +3.6%. In 2024 their inflation rate fell from 3.2% to 0.1%. It rose in 25 to 1.8% in Sep, slowed to 1.5% in Oct>Nov, rose to 2.0% in Dec>Jan, 2.3% in Mar & 2.7% in Apr, fell to 2.5% in May. YOY Inflation is low, but its cumulative impact can slow growth.

As expected, May sales grew vs Apr. Total Retl was +5.0%, 18% below avg; Relevant Retl was +5.1%, 16% below avg. In May, no actual comparison was negative. Mar had 1 & Dec>Feb & Apr, 2. There were 0 real drops in Dec>Feb. In Mar, there were 7. Apr had 9 & May, 10. In Dec, all were up vs last year but only Rel. Retl’s lift was above avg. In Jan, 3 lifts, all below avg. In Feb, 4 lifts, all below avg. In Mar/Apr, 4 lifts, 2 above avg. In May 5 lifts, 2 above avg. In Dec>Feb, 4 big groups were all positive. In Mar, 2. In Apr/May, 1. Relevant Retail has now been all positive in 24 of 26 months. YOY inflation is relatively low for all but Gasoline. However, cumulative inflation can also affect sales. Progress is slow.

Here’s a more detailed look at May by Key Channels in the Stacked Bar Graph Format

  • Relevant Retail: Ytd Growth: +4.9%; Avg 19>26: +6.3%; Real: 3.6%. % Real Growth: 52.0%. All 11 were up from Apr. Vs May 25: 10 were up, 7 Real. Vs May 21: 9 were up; 7 Real. Vs 19: Dept Stores were down & “real” Furniture Stores.
  • All Department Stores – This group was struggling before the pandemic hit them hard. They began recovery in March 21. Sales are +8.3% from Apr, but all YOY measurements except actual vs May 25 are negative. Their 1.7% May YOY lift is much better than their -4.3% avg. Ytd Growth: -1.1%; Avg 19>26: -4.9%; Real: -6.6%. % Real growth: None
  • Club/SuprCtr/$- They fueled a big part of the recovery because they focus on value which has broad consumer appeal. $ales are +9.4% from Apr and they are now up in all comparisons. Their 3.8% YOY May lift is -53.4% below their 92>25 avg of +8.2%. Ytd Growth: 3.1%; Avg 19>26: +4.9%; Real: 2.2%. % Real Growth: 41.5%
  • Grocery- They depend on frequent purchases, so their changes are usually less radical. $ales are +6.2% from Apr. They are actually up for all but really down for all but vs 2019. Cumulative inflation has hit them hard. Their +1.8% YOY May lift is 41.6% below their +3.1% avg. Ytd Growth: 1.0%; Avg 19>26: +4.3%; Real: 0.2%. % Real Growth: 4.7%
  • Health/Drug Stores – Many stores are essential, but consumers visit less frequently than Grocery stores. $ are +1.1% from Apr and positive in all YOY comparisons. Inflation has been relatively low, so it is surprising that their +0.9% YOY lift vs May 25 is 82.5% below avg. Ytd Growth: 2.0%; Avg 19>26: +4.5%; Real: 3.2%. % Real Growth: 68.5%
  • Clothing and Accessories – Clothes mattered less if you stayed home. That changed in March 2021 with strong growth through 2022. Sales are +11.8% from Apr and positive in all YOY measurements. $ales are +3.6% vs May 25, 5.0% more than their 3.4% avg. Ytd Growth: 5.7%; Avg 19>26: +3.5%; Real: 2.2%. % Real Growth: 60.7%.
  • Home Furnishings – In mid-2020 consumers’ focus turned to their homes and furniture became a priority. Inflation is down to 1.9% in May. $ are +5.0% from Apr, but they are only actually up vs 2019. All real sales are down. YOY vs May 25, they are -3.3%, far below their 3.2% avg lift. Ytd Growth: -3.1%; Avg 19>26:+2.1%; Real: -0.2%. % Real Growth: None
  • Electronic/Appliances – They have had many issues. $ fell in Apr>May of 2020 and didn’t reach 2019 levels until March 21. $ are +5.8% from Apr and up in all comparisons. Strong deflation made real sales very high. Sales are +5.9% vs May 25, 1.5 times above the 2.4% avg. Ytd Growth: 6.3%; Avg 19>26: 1.2%; Real: 4.5%. % Real Growth: 100+%
  • Bldg Matl, Farm, Garden, Hdwe – They benefited from the consumers’ focus on home. In 22 the lift slowed as inflation grew to double digits. Prices rose again in Apr>Sep 25, dropped Oct/Nov, rose Dec/Jan to 5.6%, fell Feb to 4.8%, rose Mar to 6.0%, fell Apr/May to 3.7%. $ are +2.0% from Apr and are actually up & really down for all but “real” 2019. $ vs May 25 were +1.8%, 58% below their 4.2% Avg. Ytd Growth: 3.4%; Avg 19>26: 4.3%; Real: 0.6%. % Real Growth: 12.4%
  • Sporting Goods, Hobby and Book Stores – Consumers turned their attention to recreation and Sporting Goods stores sales took off. Book & Hobby Stores recovered more slowly. They have been on a sales roller coaster since June 24 and $ are +9.7% from Apr. All YOY comparisons are now positive. YOY Sales vs May 25 are +10.8%, 2.4 times more than their 3.2% avg. Ytd Growth: +9.3%; Avg 19>26: +4.7%; Real: 3.8%. % Real Growth: 79.0%.
  • All Miscellaneous Stores – Pet Stores have been a key part of the strong and growing recovery of this group. They finished 2020 at +0.9% but sales took off in March 21 and have continued to grow. Sales are +11.8% vs Apr and positive in all comparisons. They are 2nd in the % increase vs 19 & vs 21. Plus, their 6.5% YOY May lift is 46.7% more than their 92>25 avg of +4.45%. Ytd Growth: +10.1%; Avg 19>26: +7.5%; Real: 5.7%. % Real Growth: 71.8%.
  • NonStore Retailers – 90% of their $ comes from Internet/Mail Order/TV. The pandemic accelerated online spending. They ended 2020 +21.4%. The growth continued in 2021 as sales exceeded $100B for the 1st time and they broke the $1 Trillion barrier. $ are +1.8% from Apr, but their YOY lift of 9.9% is 3.9% below the 10.3% avg. However, they are positive in all comparisons. Ytd Growth: 10.0%; Avg 19>26: +13.1%; Real: 11.1%. % Real Growth: 80.0%.

Recap – Driven by Relevant Retail, the Pandemic recovery was widespread by Y/E 21. In 22, we were hit with the strongest inflation in 40 years. Inflation has slowed considerably from its Jun 22 peak, but only 2 smaller channels are now deflating. Deflation helps, but cumulative inflation can still have a negative impact – slowed YOY growth and even sales drops. As expected, $ grew from Apr for all 11 small channels, but only 4 of the lifts were above avg. The biggest concern is still YOY drops and smaller lifts. Relevant Retail’s 4.6% lift vs May 25 was 1.8% below avg. 10 channels had a YOY lift vs 25, 1 more than Apr. 5 of the lifts were above avg, the same as Apr. There are multiple factors slowing growth, but the major one is high prices from current & cumulative inflation. Feb is usually the worst retail month. May is the 3rd best & the Apr>May lift is the 3rd biggest. Both Total & Relevant Retail had record monthly sales for Dec>May 26. The May Yoy lift was 11.3% above avg for Total but -1.8% below avg for Relevant. Like Apr, 6 of 11 channels (only 4 in Mar) had a below avg lift or a drop vs 25. The situation is similar to Apr, but worse than Mar. We’ll see what happens in June.

Here are the Apr/May inflation rates for the CPIs used to calculate the impact of inflation on retail groups and channels. This includes special aggregate CPIs created with the instruction and guidance of the US BLS. I also researched data from the last Economic Census to review the share of sales by product category for the various channels to help in selecting what expenditures to include in specific aggregates. Of course, none of these specially created aggregates are 100% accurate but they are much closer than the overall CPI or available aggregates. The data includes the CPI changes vs 21 to show cumulative inflation.

Monthly YOY CPI changes of 0.2% or more are highlighted. (Green = lower; Pink = higher)

Here are some answers to some obvious questions. Note: Gasoline is by far the biggest driver in the National CPI lift.

  • Why is the group for Nonstore different from the Internet?
    • Non-store is not all internet. It also includes Fuel Oil Dealers, the non-motor fuel Energy Commodity.
  • Why is there no Food at home included in Nonstore or Internet?
    • Online Grocery purchasing is becoming popular, but almost all is from companies whose major business is brick ‘n mortar. These online sales are recorded under their primary channel.
  • 5 Channels have the same CPI aggregate but represent a variety of business types.
    • They also have a wide range of product types. Rather than try to build aggregates of a multitude of small expenditure categories, it seemed better to eliminate the biggest, influential groups that they don’t sell. This method is not perfect, but it is certainly closer than any existing aggregate.
  • Why are Grocery and Supermarkets only tied to the Grocery CPI?
    • According to the Economic Census, 76% of their sales comes from Grocery products. Grocery Products are the driver. The balance of their sales comes from a collection of a multitude of categories.
  • What about Drug/Health Stores only being tied to Medical Commodities.
    • An answer similar to the one for Grocery/Supermarkets. However, in this case Medical Commodities account for over 80% of these stores’ total sales.
  • Why do SuperCtrs/Clubs and $ Stores have the same CPI?
    • While the Big Stores sell much more fresh groceries, Groceries account for ¼ of $ Store sales. Both Channels generally offer most of the same product categories, but the actual product mix is different.

Petflation 2026 – May Update: Petflation Slowed, But Prices Still High

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It’s time to continue with 2026 Inflation. The Consumer Price Index peaked back in June 2022 at 9.1% then began to slow until it turned up in Jul/Aug 2023. Prices fell in Oct>Dec 23, then turned up Jan>Oct 24 but fell in Nov. However, they rose 10 straight months to a record high in Sep 25, fell Oct>Dec, rose in Jan>May 26 (Record). The CPI vs last year rose to 4.2% from 3.8%. Grocery prices increased 0.1% from Apr but their YOY inflation slowed to 2.7% from 2.9%. BTW, Gas prices are up 50.7% from Feb. Even minor price changes can affect consumer pet spending, especially in the discretionary pet segments, so we will continue to publish monthly reports to track petflation as it evolves in the market.

Petflation was +4.1% in Dec 21 while the overall CPI was +7.0%. The gap narrowed as Petflation accelerated. It was 96.7% of the national rate in June 22. National inflation has slowed considerably, but Petflation generally increased until June 23. It passed the CPI in July 22, fell below it from Apr>Jul 24. It passed the CPI in Aug, fell below in Sep>Oct, rose above in Nov, fell below in Dec>Aug 25, passed it Sep>Oct & Dec>Mar 26, equal in Apr, now below in May. All reports include:

  • A rolling 24 month tracking of the CPI for all pet segments and the national CPI. The base number will be pre-pandemic December 2019 in this and future reports, which will facilitate comparisons.
  • Monthly comparisons of 26 vs 25 which will include Pet Segments and relevant Human spending categories. Plus
    1. CPI change from the previous month.
    2. Inflation changes for recent years (25>26, 24>25, 23>24, 22>23, 21>22, 20>21, 19>20, 18>19)
    3. Total Inflation for the current month in 2026 vs 2019 and vs 2021 to see the full inflation surge.
    4. Average annual Year Over Year inflation rate from 2019 to 2026
  • YTD comparisons
    1. YTD numbers for the monthly comparisons #2>4 above

In our first graph we will track the monthly change in prices for the 24 months from May 24 to May 26. We will use December 2019 as a base number so we can track the progress from pre-pandemic times through an eventual recovery. This chart is designed to give you a visual image of the flow of pricing. You can see the similarities and differences in segment patterns and compare them to the overall U.S. CPI. The year-end numbers & those from 12 and 24 months earlier are included. We also included and highlighted (pink) the cumulative price peak for each segment. In May, Total Pet prices were down -0.1% from Apr. Non-Vet Services were up 1.4%, while all other segments were down.

In May 24, the CPI was +22.2% and Pet was +23.9%. The Services segments inflated after mid-20, while Product inflation stayed low until late 21. In 22, Food prices grew but others had mixed patterns until July 22, when all rose. In Aug>Oct Petflation took off. In Nov>Dec, Services & Food inflated while Vet & Supplies prices stabilized. In Jan>Apr 23, prices grew every month for all except for 1 Supplies dip. In May Products prices grew while Services slowed. In Jun/Jul this reversed. In Aug all but Services fell. In Sep/Oct this flipped. In Nov, all but Food & Vet fell. In Dec, Supp. & Vet drove a lift. In Jan>Mar 24 Pet prices grew. In April, prices in all but Vet fell. In May, all but Food grew. In June, Products drove a lift. In July, all but Services fell. In Aug, Food drove a drop. In Sep, Products fueled a drop. In Nov all were up. Prices dropped in Mar & Oct>Nov 25, rose Dec>Mar 26, fell Apr/May. All segments set records in Mar. Product Prices slowed in Apr/May. Vet set a new record in Apr then fell -0.1% in May. Services prices reached a new record high in Apr, then May.

  • U.S. CPI – Inflation was below 2% through 2020. It turned up in January 21 and grew until flattening out in Jul>Dec 22. Prices rose Jan>Sep 23, fell Oct>Dec, rose Jan>Oct 24, fell Nov, rose Dec>Sep 25, fell Nov>Dec, but hit record highs in Jan>May 26. 22.4% of the lift since Dec 19 happened from Jan>Jun 22 – 7.8% of the time.
  • Pet Food Prices were at the Dec 19 level Apr 20>Sep /21. They grew & peaked May 23, then got on a continuing rollercoaster Jun/Jul 25↑, Aug↓, Sep↔, Oct/Nov ↓, Dec>Mar↑, Apr>May↓. 90+% of the lift was in 22/23.
  • Pet Supplies – Supplies prices were high in Dec 19 due to tariffs. They had a deflated roller coaster ride until mid-21 when they returned to Dec 19 prices & stayed there until 22. They turned up in Jan (record). They plateaued Feb>May, grew in June, flattened in July, then turned up in Aug>Oct to a new record. Prices stabilized Nov>Dec, grew Jan>Feb 23. fell in Mar and the roller coaster hasn’t stopped. Jan>Feb 25↓, Mar>May↑, Jun↓, Jul↑, Aug↓, Sep↑, Oct>Nov↓, Dec↑, Jan 26↓, Feb>Mar↑(record), Apr>May↓. Prices are only 1.6% below Mar.
  • Pet Services– Inflation is usually 2+%. Perhaps due to closures, prices increased at a lower rate in 2020. In 2021 consumer demand increased but with fewer outlets. Inflation grew in 21 with the biggest lift in Jan>Apr. Inflation was strong in 22 but prices got on a roller coaster. They turned up Jul>Apr 23, fell May. Jun>Aug↑, Sep>Dec↓, Jan>Mar 24↑, Apr↓, May↑, Jun↓, Jul>Nov↑, Dec>Mar 25↓, Apr>Aug↑, Sep↓, Oct>May 26↑(record).
  • Veterinary – Inflation has been consistent. Prices turned up in Mar 20 and grew through 21. A surge began in Dec 21 which put them above the overall CPI. In May/Jun 22 prices fell below the CPI. However, they rose again & have been above the CPI since July 22. In 23>25 prices grew Jan>May, leveled Jun/Jul, fell Aug, grew Sep>Dec, fell Jan, grew Feb>May, fell Jun>Jul, grew Aug 24>Sep 25, fell Oct>Nov, grew Dec>Apr 26 (records), fell May.
  • Total Pet – Petflation is a sum of the segments. In Dec 21 the price surge began. In Mar>Jun 22 the segments had ups & downs, but Petflation grew Jul>Nov, slowed Dec, grew Jan>May 23, fell Jun>Aug, grew Sep/Oct, fell Nov. Prices grew Dec>Mar 24 to a record high. Prices fell in April, rose May>Jun, fell Jul>Sep, rose Oct>Nov, fell Dec, rose Jan>Feb 25, fell Mar, grew Apr>Jul, fell Aug, rose Sep, fell Oct>Nov, rose Dec>Mar (record), fell in Apr>May.

Next, we’ll turn our attention to the YOY inflation rate change for May and compare it to last month, last year and to previous years. We will also show total inflation from 21>26 & 19>26. Petflation rose from 2.5% to 3.5% in Sep, fell to 2.6% in Nov, rose to 3.5% in Dec & 4.3% in Mar. In Apr it fell to 3.8% & to 3.2% in May and is now below the US CPI. The chart will allow you to compare the inflation rates of 25>26 to 24>25 and other years but also see how much of the total inflation since 2019 came from the current surge. We’ve included some human categories to put the pet data into perspective.

Overall, prices were up 0.6% from Apr and were +4.2% vs May 25, up from 3.8% last month. Grocery prices rose 0.1% but inflation slowed to +2.7% from 2.9%. There were 4 price drops from last month, down from 5 in Apr. In Feb, there were no drops. In Dec & Jan there was 1. In Nov there were 6 drops. The national YOY monthly CPI rate of 4.2% is up 75% from 24>25 but it’s 51% less than 21>22. The 25>26 rate is above 24>25 for all but Pet Supplies, Haircuts & Vet. In our 2021>2025 measurement you also can see that over 75% of the cumulative inflation since 2019 has occurred in all but 2 segments – Haircuts and Medical Services. Service Segments have generally had higher inflation rates so there was a smaller pricing lift in the recent strong increase. Pet Products have a very different pattern. The 21>26 inflation surge provided 102% of their overall inflation since 2019. This happened because Pet Products prices in 2021 were still recovering from a deflationary period. Services expenditures account for 63.4% of the National CPI so they are very influential. Their current CPI is +3.5% while the CPI for Commodities jumped up from 4.6% to 5.5%. Services are the usual inflation driver, but Commodities are behind the current increase. The situation in Pet is closer to the “normal” national situation. Petflation: 3.2%. The CPI for the Service Segments is 5.1%. The Pet Products CPI is 1.5%.

  • U.S. CPI– Prices are +0.6% from Apr. The YOY increase is 4.2%, up from 3.8% in Apr. It peaked at +9.1% back in June 2022. The targeted inflation rate is <2% so we are now 110+% higher than the target. The Mar>May lifts follow Feb stability, a lift in Jan, stability in Dec and 2 drops in Oct & Nov. The current rate is 75% above 24>25 and the 21>26 rate is +24.5%, 79.3% of the total inflation since 2019. The Inflation surge was growing in May 2021, +5.0%
  • Pet Food– Prices are -0.4% vs Apr, but +1.8% vs May 25, down from 2.2%. They are now 33% below the Food at Home inflation rate of +2.7%. Remember that the YOY Pet Food CPI has deflated in 16 of the last 27 months. The 2021>2026 inflation surge has generated 98.8% of the 24.7% inflation since 2019. Inflation began for Pet Food in June 2021, +0.9%, after 12 straight deflationary months. Pet Food prices are still within 0.6% of the Mar record high.
  • Food at Home – Prices are +0.1% from Apr but the YOY CPI slowed from 2.9% to 2.7%. This is radically lower than Jul>Sep 2022 when it exceeded 13%. The 32.6% Inflation for this category since 2019 is 5.5% more than the national CPI but is only in 4th place behind 3 Services expenditures. 78.5% of the inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>26. This is slightly less than the CPI, but we should note that Grocery prices began inflating in 2020>21 then the rate accelerated. It appears that the pandemic supply chain issues in Food which contributed to higher prices started early and foreshadowed problems in other categories and the overall CPI tsunami.
  • Pets & Supplies– Prices were -1.3% from Apr and YOY inflation fell to 0.1% from 1.9%. They still have the lowest rate vs 2019. Prices were deflated for much of 20>21. As a result, the 2021>26 inflation surge accounted for 113.7% of the total price increase since 2019. Prices set a record in Oct 22 then deflated. 3 lifts pushed them to a record high in Feb 23. Prices fell in Mar & the roller coaster continued into 25. They fell Jan/Feb 25, rose Mar>May, fell Jun, rose Jul, fell Aug, rose Sep, fell Oct>Nov, rose Dec (record), fell in Jan, rose Feb>Mar – a new record, then fell in Apr>May.
  • Veterinary Services– Prices are -0.1% from Apr, but +4.9% from 2025, down from 5.5%. They are #2 in inflation vs last year, behind Pet Serv. but still #1 in the increase since 2019, +54.6% and 21, +42.0%. For Veterinary, high annual inflation is the norm. However, the rate has increased during the current surge, especially since 23. They have the highest May avg rate in 26, but just 76.9% of the cumulative inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>26.
  • Medical Services – Prices turned sharply up at the start of the pandemic but then inflation slowed and fell to a low rate in 20>21. Prices rose 0.5% from Apr and inflation vs last year increased to +3.6% from +3.2%. Medical Services are not a big part of the current surge as only 62.3% of the 22.8%, 2019>26 increase happened from 21>26.
  • Pet Services – Inflation slowed in 20 but grew in 21. In 24 prices surged in Jul>Nov, then fell to 3.9% in Dec>Mar 25. Apr grew, May fell, June rose, Jul rose to 6.3%, fell to 5.8% in Aug & 4.2% in Nov. In Dec>Mar 26 it rose to 7.8%, fell to 6.6% in Apr, then rose to 7.0%. They are #1 vs 25 and #2 vs 21 & 19. 78.1% of their 19>25 inflation is from 21>26.
  • Haircuts/Other Personal Services – Prices are +0.5% from Apr and +3.6% from May 25. 20 of the last 29 months have been 4.0+%. Inflation has been pretty consistent. 69.8% of the 19>26 inflation happened 21>26.
  • Total Pet– Petflation slowed to 3.2% from 3.8%. Only Pet Services had a rate increase. Total Pet is 45.5% above the 24>25 rate but 23.8% below the current U.S. CPI. Plus, it is still 3.2% above the 3.1% avg May rate since 1997. May prices fell -0.1%, mainly driven by Products. The Apr>May decrease was very different from the 0.2% 97>25 average change and unexpected. Since 1997, there have been only 5 Apr>May price drops. A key factor in the current big CPI drop was that prices rose 0.5% in Apr>May 25. The recovery is definitely slow. Now, we’ll look at YTD data.

The 25>26 rate is higher than 24>25 for all, but Veterinary & Haircuts. The 22>23 inflation rate was the highest for Tot Pet, Pet Food, Veterinary & Pet Services. 21>22 has the highest rate for Groceries, Pet Supplies & the Natl CPI. 20>21: Haircuts; 19>20: Medical Services. The average national inflation rate in the 7 years since 2019 is 3.8%. Only 3 of the categories are below that rate – Medical Services (3.0%), Pet Supplies (1.9%) and Pet Food (3.4%). It is no surprise that Veterinary Services has the highest average rate (6.5%), but all 4 other categories are +4.0% or higher.

  • U.S. CPI – The 25>26 rate is 3.2%, up 23% from 24>25 but down 3% from 23>24. It is also 61% less than 21>22 and 16% below the average increase from 2019>2026. However, it’s still 58% more than the average increase from 2018>21. 82% of the 29.9% inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>26. Inflation is a problem that started recently.
  • Pet Food – Ytd prices are still inflating, 1.8%, the same as Apr. That’s a big increase from -0.5% in 24>25. It is now above the 1.6% rate in 23>24 but below the 1.85% 18>20 average. Pet Food has the highest 22>23 rate but is only #6 in the 21>26 rates and #7 in 19>26. Deflation in the 1st half of 2021 kept YTD prices low then they surged in 22 and especially in 23. 94% of the inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>26.
  • Food at Home – The 25>26 inflation rate is 14.3% above 24>25, but it is down 72% from 22>23 and 76% from 21>22. It’s even 4% less than 20>21. However, it is 45.5% higher than the average rate from 2018>20. It is only in 5th place for the highest inflation since 2019 but still beat the U.S. CPI by 7.0%. You can see the impact of supply chain issues on the Grocery category as 81% of the inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>26.
  • Pets & Pet Supplies – A roller coaster, prices rose Jan>Feb 24, fell Mar>Apr, rose May>Jun, fell July, rose Aug, fell Sep>Oct, rose Nov>Dec, fell Jan>Feb 25, then rose Mar>May. Prices vs 24 deflated in June, back to +0.7% in July, fell to 0.0% in Aug, rose Sep>Dec, fell Jan 26, rose Feb>Mar, fell Apr>May. Supplies still have the lowest inflation since 2019. Their biggest YOY lifts since 2019 were in 22 & 23. The 2021 deflation created an unusual situation. Prices are up 13.7% from 2019 but 111.7% of this lift happened from 21>25. Prices are up 15.3% from their 2021 “bottom”.
  • Veterinary Services – Inflation was high in 2019 and steadily grew until it took off in late 2022. The rate may have peaked in 2023, but it is still going strong in 2026, +5.7%, the 2nd  highest on the chart. However, they are still #1 in inflation since 2019 and since 2021. At +6.5%, they have the highest average inflation rate since 2019. It is 71% higher than the National Average but 2.2 times higher than the Inflation average for Medical Services. Strong Inflation is the norm in Veterinary Services.
  • Medical Services – Prices went up significantly at the beginning of the pandemic, but inflation slowed in 2021. In May 2026 it is 3.7%, 23% above the 3.0% 2019>26 average rate. We should also note that 3.7% is 2.8 times higher than the 1.3% low point in 22>23.
  • Pet Services – After falling in late 2023, prices surged in 2024, then fell in 2025 until an Apr>Aug lift followed by a Sep>Nov dip and a Dec>May 26 lift. The 25>26 6.9% CPI is #1 on the chart, passing Veterinary. It is 33% above their 19>26 avg and more than double their 2018>20 avg. Pet Services is also 2nd in both 19>26 and 21>26 inflation.
  • Haircuts & Personal Services – The services segments, essential & non-essential, were hit hardest by the pandemic. The industry responded by raising prices. 2026 inflation is 4.3%, 23.2% below its 20/21 peak, but 38.7% above the 18>20 average. Consumers are paying over 35% more than in 2019, which usually reduces the purchase frequency.
  • Total Pet – Petflation is 3.6%, up 80% from 24>25, but 65% less than their 22>23 peak. However, It’s 59% more than their 18>21 avg and 12.5% above the CPI. Pet prices are still high. Except for Mar/Aug/Oct/Nov, Pet prices rose in 25, which continued in Jan>Mar 26, then paused in Apr>May. The overall gain is primarily being driven by a flip from deflation to inflation in Pet Products and continued strong inflation in Services, especially Non-Vet.

The Petflation recovery paused in Aug 24, came back Sep>Oct, paused in Nov, resumed in Dec>Jan 25, paused in Feb, restarted in Mar and paused Apr>Sep. It improved Oct/Nov, paused in Dec>Mar, improved Apr/May. We tend to focus on the monthly, YOY inflation in the current year and ignore the fact that inflation is cumulative. Pet prices are 27.8% above 2021 and 32.4% higher than 2019. Those are big lifts. In fact, Mar prices for the National CPI, Total Pet and all pet segments reached new record highs. In May, prices either set a new record or are within 1.6% of Mar. Only Supplies prices (+12.4%) are less than 24.7% higher than 2019. Since price/value is the biggest driver in consumer spending, inflation will affect the Pet Industry. Services will be the least impacted as it is the most driven by high income CUs. Veterinary will continue to see a reduction in visit frequency. Pet Parents will just pay more. The product segments will see a more complex reaction. Supplies are more discretionary so we will likely see a reduction in purchase frequency. In Pet Food, the most needed segment, some Pet Parents may choose to downgrade their Pet Food. However, the biggest impact in both product segments will be a strong movement to online purchasing and private label. We saw proof of this at both GPE 25 & SZ 25 as a huge # of exhibitors offer OEM services. At GPE 26, this trend continued. Strong, cumulative inflation has a widespread impact. We’ll continue to monitor the situation.

Comparing the 2024 Spending Demographics of the Industry Segments – SIDE BY SIDE

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The first reports of our Pet Spending Demographics analysis have been very detailed and intense. We looked at the industry as a whole and each of the individual segments. Recent years have seen some turmoil. We have seen the very real impact of outside influences on the industry. In the 2nd half of 2018, the FDA warning on grain free dog food caused a $2.3B drop in Food $ and new Tariffs flattened Supplies $, but Services had a record lift. In 2019, Food rebounded but the tariffs hit the Supplies segment with a $3B drop. Vet $ grew slightly while Services $ fell a bit. The net was -0.2% drop in Total Pet. The 2020 pandemic had varied impacts as Pet Parents focused on needs. This caused a lift in Vet and a huge increase in Food because some demographics binge bought out of fear of shortages. Services spending plummeted due to closures and restrictions while Supplies $ continued to fall because consumers saw them as more discretionary. 2021 brought a big change, Food $ fell because there was no “binge” repeat. However, Pet Parents focused on their “children” producing a widespread record lift in all other segments and a $16B increase. In 2022, after the record lift in 2021, spending fell in Supplies and Vet, but Food was +12.5% & Services continued to surge. This produced a 2.7% lift in Total Pet $. In 2023, the industry recovered with spending lifts in all segments for the 1st time since 2014. Big lifts in Veterinary and Food drove the 3rd largest increase in history, +$14.9B. Total Pet $ reached $117.6B. In 2024, Food $ fell, but a big lift in Vet & small increases in Supplies & Services pushed Total Pet up +1.1% to $118.87B.

We have often referenced the similarities and differences in spending between Total Pet and the individual industry segments. Total Pet Spending is a sum of the parts and not all parts are equal. In this final report we are going to put the segments side by side to make the parallels, differences and changes from 2023 more readily apparent. We will address:

  • “The big spenders” – those groups which account for the bulk of pet spending.
  • The best and worst performing segments in each of twelve demographic categories
  • The segments with the biggest changes in spending $ – both positive and negative
  • And of course, the “Ultimate Spending CUs”

The emphasis is on “visual” side by side comparisons to allow you to quickly compare the industry segments. We’ll try to minimalize our comments. You can always reference one of the specific reports for more details. We’ll also break the charts up into smaller pieces that are demographically related to make the comparison more focused and easier.

Let’s first take a look at the current market share of the industry segments. The following 2 charts show the 2024 share of spending for each segment and the evolution over the past 30 years. 1992 was the last year that Food accounted for 50% of Total Pet Spending. In 2024 they are 33.7% and fell to 2nd place. BTW: Total Pet Spending was $16.2B in 1992. We have come a long way, +634%; annual growth rate of 6.4%. This will help put our comparisons into better perspective.

In 2024, Veterinary gained 4.4% in share in Total Pet $ from Food. The most notable trends from 1992 to 2012 were the decline in Food share while Supplies gained in importance. Both of those have ended. Supplies have been trending down since 2012, hitting bottom at 18.1% in 2020 but are again above 20% in 2024 (20.1%). In recent years, Food has been on a rollercoaster. It reached 44% in 2020, the highest level since 44.8% in 1998, but fell to 33.7% in 2024. It is now #2 in share. The Services segments have been more stable. They have generally trended up since 2012. After falling to 8.2% in 2020, Non-Vet Services peaked at 12% in 2022, then stabilized. Except for the 39%, 22>24 lift, Vet share has been in the 25>28% range. In 2024, they took the top spot from Food with 34.7%. All are impacted by outside influences but Food trends and Petflation tend to make the Product Segments more volatile than the Services Segments.

Now let’s get started with a look at the “Big Spenders”. The following 2 charts will compare the market share and performance in all Pet Industry segments by the groups responsible for the bulk of the spending in 10 demographic categories. These are the groups that we identified in our Total Pet analysis to generate at least a 60% market share of spending. As you recall, to better target the spending we altered from 1 to 4 groups in all but Supplies. However, to have a true side by side comparison we need to use the same groups for all. The groups that we chose make sense but 3 are different from 2023. You will see that in a few cases, the share of $ is close  but does not meet our target of 60%. Most of these are due to Food spending becoming more balanced.

The chart makes it especially easy to compare share and performance across categories. Remember, performance levels above 120% show a very high level of importance for this category in terms of increased spending. Unfortunately, it also indicates a high spending disparity among the segments within the category. There are 2 charts, each with 5 categories. The categories are listed in share of Total Pet $ – from highest to lowest.

  • Homeowners – Homeownership is very important in Pet Ownership and subsequently in all Pet Spending. It also increases with age. In 2024, only Supplies are below 80%. In 2023, Food & Total were also <80%. The group gained 2.0 % in Total Pet share – gains in Products, losses in Services. The group was very mixed. W/O Mtge mirrored the overall pattern. W/Mtge were only down in Food. Renters were only up in Veterinary.
  • White, Non-Hispanic – This group has a 79.3+% market share in every Segment. Minorities account for 33.9% of CUs but only 16>20% of spending in any segment. Factors: Lower income for Hispanics and African Americans and lower Pet ownership in Asians and African Americans. Whites lost share in Total & in all segments but Food. Minorities gained in Total by slightly different paths. Hispanics & Afr. Amer.: ↑All but Food; Asians: ↑Food & Services only.
  • Urban – They gained 1.3% in Total Pet. Gains in Supplies, Services & Food overcame a small drop in Vet. The Suburbs 2500> only gained share in Supplies & Vet. Center City had the exact opposite pattern as they only had gains in Pet Food & Non-Vet Pet Services. Rural Areas lost share in all but Veterinary.
  • Over $70K Income – INCOME MATTERS MOST IN PET SPENDING! Income has grown in importance, and all segments, but Food performed at 140+%. $70K> gained 1.8% in CU share and 4.2% in Total. They had gains in all segments. Food: +5.2%; Supp: +1.1%; Serv: +3.0%; Vet: +4.0%. Spending appears less balanced in income for all segments. However, the situation is more complicated. Consider this: No income group gained in all segments but, $40>99K gained 6.6% in Food share. As I said, spending is complex, especially in Food.
  • 2>4 People in CU – 2+ is still the key in pet ownership. However, the results were mixed. Singles & 3 people CUs lost share in every segment. 2 People gained share in all segments but Supplies. 4 people gained in all but Food. 5+ People only gained in Food & Veterinary. In 2022>23, 3 People was the only size to gain share in Total and in every Industry Segment. That ended. Now, no size is up for all. However, 2 People still has the biggest share in all.
  • All Wage & Salary Earners– Incomes vary widely in this group, so performance is often lower. The group gained 0.9% in CU share and 1.0% in Total Pet. Products lost share while all Services gained. The lift was driven by Managers. They spent more in all but Food but gained share in all segments. The only other occupation to have a lift in Total Pet was A/O, Not listed. They were only up in Food & Vet.
  • College Graduates > – Associate’s Degree gained 0.1% in Total Pet share but it still makes sense to limit the Education group to College Grads only. College Grads increased spending and gained share in all segments but Pet Food. Their +$4.98B Pet lift was 4 times the National +$1.27B lift. Even their $5.3B Vet lift was 95% of the National +$5.6B lift. Education has gained importance. It is #2 for Total Pet, Veterinary and Supplies; #3 for Services segments but is only #8 for Food.
  • Married Couples – Marriage is 1st in importance to spending in Food, 3rd in Total, Veterinary & Supplies but falls to 4th in Services. In 2024 their share & performance grew in all but Supplies. The best performer inside the group was CUs with a child 18>. Outside of the group, it was Unmarried, 2+ Adults.
  • 2+ CU, 1 or 2 Earners – Income is important, but not always the # of Earners. The group’s share grew for all. It was a great year for 2 Earners. All were up with 120+% performance. It was bad for 1 Earners. They lost share in all but Services. Their Performance was <83% for all but Food, +111%. BTW – 3+ Earners lost share in all but Veterinary.
  • 35 to 64 yrs – Includes the 3 highest income segments. They had share changes in all: Total Pet: +2.9%; Food: +6.5%; Supplies: +1.9%; Serv: -1.0%; Vet: +4.6%. They are now above 60% in share for all segments. Overall, spending by age group is becoming more balanced. This is especially apparent in Pet Food. 25>34 yr olds perform at 92.6%. All other age groups up to 75 perform above 98%. Definitely more balanced.

Now we’ll look at the Best/Worst performers in each category. Highlighted cells are different from Total Pet; * = New Winner/Loser; ↑↓ = 5+% Performance Change from 2023. The categories are divided into related groups. 1st, Income

  • Income – Income matters. All winners were $150K> with 3 changes from 2023. The disparity between 1st and last place in Total grew by 15%. Veterinary was +30% but Supplies fell by -32% and Services by -30%. Food disparity was unchanged and still the lowest. The most balanced spending is in Food and the least balanced is in Services.
  • # Earners – The highest income 3+ Earners group fell from the top in 2 segments. They were replaced by 2 Earners in Total & Food. The most impactful changes were in Food which drove its disparity up 34% & even 26% in Total (now 100%). Disparity dropped -22% in Supplies, but it grew by 13% in Services & only 4% in Veterinary.
  • Occupation– Mgrs & Professionals are #1 in CU income and expenditures, but again Self-Employed is the best performer in the Product segments. Blue Collar Workers now “rule” the bottom spots, with the only exception Service Workers in Veterinary. The spending disparity increased by 23% in Total & Food, 22% in Services and 5% in Supplies. Veterinary had no change but in 2023, it was +33% vs 2022.

Next are demographics of which we have no control – Age, Generation and Racial/Ethnicity

  • Racial/Ethnic– White Non-Hispanics are the top performer in all segments and African Americans are on the bottom in all but Vet They have the lowest income and only 25% own Pets. High income Asians did replace them in Vet., but they also have low Pet ownership. Total Disparity was -3%. All but Food were down. Food: +24%; Supplies: -7%; Vet: -35%; Services: -19%. Food is now significantly less balanced. All others improved.
  • Age – The 45>54 yr-olds are again the “rulers”. They replaced older groups. The bottom is even younger. Only 75+ in Vet is not <25. The Total disparity grew +17%. 2 Segments were down – Supp: -7% & Vet: -4%. 2 Segments were up – Food: +42% & Services: +43%. Some big swings, but again only 1 is over 100% – again Services. In 2022, it was Vet.
  • Generation – Gen X now “rules” all. Gen Z is now at the bottom in Food & Services while Born <1946 is the worst in the others. Disparity was +14%. Supplies (-24%) & Vet (-2%) were down. Food (+15%) & Services (+20%) were up.

In the next 6 categories, we have at least some control

  • Education – Higher Education generally correlates with income. The winners have Adv College degrees while only 1 loser finished HS. The Disparity gap rose +33%. Food: +40%; Supp: +14%; Vet: +32%; Serv: +10%. Income matters.
  • CU Composition – Only 4 of 10 are different from 23. In 23, there were 9. Except for Food, married w/kids wins. The loser is Single Parents for all, but Supp. Disparity rose 23%. Food: +24%; Supp: -3%; Serv: -6%; Vet: +43%.
  • CU Size – 3 different winners, while 1 Person remained solidly on the bottom. Disparity rose +4%. Food:+4%; Supp: -2%; Vet: +6%; Serv: +43%. A big increase in Services (now 100%>) & small lifts in Vet & Food, but a drop in Supplies.
  • Housing – The perennial winner and loser. Disparity rose 11%. Food (+6%), Supp. (+4%), Vet (+20%), Serv (+9%).
  • Area– Another perennial winner (except for Serv) & loser. The disparity fell -9%. Food (-5%), Supp (-14%), Vet (+1%) and Serv (-14%). The most notable change was the big lift in Services spending in Center City areas.
  • Region – The West is on top for 3, The Northeast 2. South is at the bottom in 3, Northeast 2. Midwest is off of the chart. Disparity fell -14%. Food (-0.7%), Supp (-26%), Vet (+9%) and Serv (-12%). This is the lowest disparity category.

Here are the categories with the biggest & smallest disparities for Total Pet & each industry segment.

The fact that income produces the biggest spending disparity is no surprise. Pet spending is driven by income. The low Food Income disparity and the Regional “wins” reflect a growing balance in spending in a few categories. In Area Type, Services spending is expanding beyond high population areas while Veterinary spending is now growing in Center City.

Now, here are two summary charts. The first compares the averages.

The disparity grew for all but Supplies. A big increase by Food helped drive Total up. Only the disparities for Food & Supplies are below 2019 levels. Food has the lowest disparity for the 4th straight year. The gap generally grows as you move from Products to Services. Non-Vet Services is again on top & have the only gap over 100%. The Vet disparity also grew and it moved up from 3rd to 2nd  highest. Total Pet is up 10% from 22 & 17% from 23, less balanced.

  • Food – Up 31% from 2023, but -13% from 2019 and -65% from the 2020 binge. They are still the most balanced.
  • Supplies – The record 2021 increase produced a record disparity. Disparity fell in 24 & made them equal to 2019.
  • Veterinary – Their 2021 lift increased the difference to 100+%. With the 2024 lift, they are now above 2019.
  • Services – Only a small $ lift in 2024, but the gap widened by 7%. They are again the only segment over 100% .

                                                                                 This chart shows the number of new winners/losers.

There was slightly more turmoil than in 2023, (40 changes, up from 39) but Food again led the “pack” with over half of the winners & losers changing as their spending plummeted in 2024.

  • With a huge $5.46B decrease in 2024, the turmoil in Pet Food grew with 15 changes (up from 11). However, there were more new losers than winners – the opposite of 2023.
  • Supplies spending grew in 24 and the # of changes rose from 8 to 9. Winners: Again 5; Losers: 4 up from 3
  • The Veterinary lift was again big and the # of changes fell to 6 from 9.
  • Services growth slowed but the # of changes fell from 4 to 3. Winners: 2 (down from 4); Losers: 1 (up from 0)

Now, let’s look at the Demographic Segments with the Biggest Changes in $. We’ll truly see some differences between the Industry Segments. We have color highlighted differences from Total Pet. Plus:  ↔ = Winner/Loser same as 2023;    ↕ = Flipped from 1st to Last or vice versa

First, the Income related categories

  • Income – 3 winners & 5 losers were new with 3 flips. 4 winners are over $100K and 2 losers. 3 losers were below average income and <$50K. It looks like the win by $40>49K in Food was accomplished by trading Vet $.
  • # Earners – All but 3 are new with 3 flips. In all but Food, the winners were high income. The losers are all low income. Stability only in Service segments. All flips were in Products. Both the winner & loser flipped in Supplies.
  • Occupation – Only 1 repeat and 1 flip. The high income, Mgrs & Professionals won in 3 segments & Total. The low income A/O which includes unemployed won in Food. Tech/Sls/Clerical flipped to the bottom in Supplies and also lost Food & Total. Retirees lost Veterinary. The biggest surprise was that the high income Self-employed lost in Services. We should also note that there are no Blue Collar workers on the 2024 chart – win or lose.

Now the Age and Racial/Ethnic Categories

  • Racial Ethnic – 1 repeat & 5 flips. White, non-Hispanics won in all in 2023. In 24, they only won Vet and flipped to the bottom in Services, Food & Total. Asians lost Supplies & Vet (smallest lifts) but won in Food & Total. 2 surprise winners – Hispanics in Supp & Afr. Amer. In Serv. 2024 was good for Minorities: +8.5% in Total Pet $. Whites: -0.5%.
  • Age – No repeats and 4 flips. There were only 2 different winners, 45>54 & 35>54. In 2023, 4 were 55>. In 2024, 65>74 was the big loser. They lost Services & flipped from 1st to last in Food and Total. There were 3 different losers. 55>64 lost in Veterinary and the <25 yr-olds lost Supplies. This is not surprising as they had a 63% lift in 2023. <25 had a great year in 2023 with lifts in all segments, but they are by far the smallest segment. 2024 was a big turnaround. Total was -33%. Their only lift was in Vet. All other segments were down over -50%.
  • Generation – 1 repeat & 2 flips. Spending skewed a little younger. Millennials won in Supplies and Veterinary. The high income Gen Xers won everything else, including flipping to the top in Food. Boomers were the big losers. They flipped to the bottom in Veterinary but lost in all segments but Supplies. That “honor” was saved for the youngest group, Gen Z. The drop was not surprising, after a +75% lift in 2023.

Now, here are more Demographic Categories in which the consumers can make choices.

  • Education – 1 repeat & 4 flips. Higher education is usually tied to increased income and pet spending but not always. It was a strong year for Adv Degrees with wins in all but Food (Assoc.) HS Grads w/some College lost all but Food (BA/BS). It appears that having a Master’s Degree or PhD really mattered in 2024.
  • CU Comp. – No repeats but 3 flips. Married, Couple Only won Food. The other wins were by Married, Oldest child 18>. None of the losers had children. Singles lost 3 – Food, Services & Total. Married, Couple Only lost Supplies. Married, + Adults, No Kids lost Veterinary.
  • CU Size– 2 repeats & 3 flips. Only 2 different winners. In 23 there were 4. 2 People won in Food, Veterinary and Total Pet. There appears to be a pattern: 2 & 4 people win; 1 & 3 people lose.
  • Housing – 4 repeats & 3 flips. No segment where all spent more. In 23, there were 3. Homeowners w/Mtges are on top in Services, Vet & Total. W/O Mtge won in Products. Renters lost in Supplies and Total Pet. Homeowners w/o Mortgage lost in  segments. We should note the dual flip in Food but only a single flip in Supplies. This is the first year since 2021 that Supplies didn’t have a dual flip.
  • Area – 5 repeats with 3 flips. The big Suburbs are the normal winner. They held onto the top spot in Vet & Total and won in Supplies. The only other winner was a surprise, Central City. They won Services & Food. Food was unusual as they won with the smallest drop. All groups spent less on Food. Rural stayed on the bottom in Veterinary, Services and Total and flipped to the bottom in Supplies. The only other loser is usually a winner. Suburbs 2500> spent $3.1B more on Food in 23. In 24, their Food spending was -$2.73B so they flipped to the bottom in this all-negative group.
  • Region – Again no repeats but 6 flips. The South flipped to the top in Total and all segments but Veterinary. The Northeast won Veterinary. The loser list provides our only view of the Midwest – lost in Total & Supplies and the West – lost in Veterinary. The Northeast is still around. They lost in Food & Services.

The next chart compares the number of repeats, “flips” and new segments among the 12 winners and 12 losers for each industry segment. The idea is to look for patterns in the data that cross segments. Let’s take a look.

  • All $ales but Food were up. Food had a big drop. Vet had a big lift while the Supplies & Services increases were small.
  • After 2 big increases, Vet is the biggest $ segment. They are also the new repeat leader (10, up from 1)
  • Total Pet also shows slightly increased stability. 6 repeats, up from 4 in 23. They did have 5 flips, up from 3 in 23.
  • Services dropped from 7 repeats to 4, behind Vet & Total. However, they again have the fewest flips, 3 (up from 2)
  • With a big drop in Food spending and a small lift in Supplies, Products showed the most turmoil. Neither had any repeats. Food was the leader in flips, 16 (up from 4) and Supplies was #2, with 12 (up from 9).
  • There are 24 winners/losers. Here’s the number different from 23. (last yr vs 22) Food: 24 (19); Supplies: 24 (20); Vet: 14 (23); Services: 20 (17); Total: 18 (20). More turmoil in all but Vet & Total, especially bad in Products.

Next, there were many positive contributors so that in each individual report we recognized 6 segments that didn’t win but still performed so well that they deserved Honorable Mention. I reviewed that list again and came up with segments that won Honorable Mention at least twice. Here are the 5  “SUPER Honorable Mentions” for 2024…

5 segments made the list, 2 less than 2023. Services & Total Pet tied for the lead with 4 segments on the “Super” list. Supplies had 2 and Food & Vet had only 1. All segments but Millennials on this year’s list are generally “low profile” but contributed notably to the industry. We should give special kudos to 75+ yr olds and the low middle income $70>99K group. These 2 groups won Honorable Mention in 2 Industry segments and Total Pet.

Although the results were mixed, with numerous individual changes, here are some trends of note:

  1. Older Youth Movement – Boomers may be fading. The Gen Xers had a strong year are the spending leader in Total Pet and all segments but Food. Spending is skewing towards their 45>54 yr old, wealthiest members. Millennials had a good year as they prepare to take their turn on top. Gen Z had drops in Products & Total but they’re “in the game”.
  2. The “Magic” number may be 2, but any number but 1 – As spending has skewed a little younger the best performing CUs vary by segment. Total’s best is 2; Food: 2; Supp: 5+; Serv: 4; Vet: 3. However, 2 person CUs still have the largest share of CU’s, 33.2% and 106+% performance in Total Pet and every segment. Definitely magical.
  3. Best spending balance in Food – The performance gap between the best and worst is the lowest in Food but only narrowed in Supplies. It widened in all others. The disparity is slightly less than in 2019 for Supplies, but only significantly less for Food. The Service segments have the biggest disparity. Non-Vet Services is the worst, 119.5%.
  4. Income is still the most important factor – The gap between best & worst did not significantly change in Food, narrowed in Services & Supplies, but grew in Total & Vet. The disparity in income is still the biggest of any category.

And Finally, What you have all been waiting for…

THE ULTIMATE 2024 PET SPENDING CUs – Side by Side

Color Highlighted cells are different from Total Pet; * = New in 2024

Methodology – The segments are chosen because they have the highest annual CU spending of any segment in the category. They may or may not have the most total dollars. That would depend upon the number of CUs in the group.

Final Comment – These “winners” further reinforce the key factors in increased pet spending:

Marriage– A commitment to another person demonstrates that you can make a commitment to your pet “children”.

CU Size – The “magic” number is 3 for Total, Food & Veterinary.  Non-Vet Services: 4; Supplies: 5+.

Homeownership/Area – Owning and controlling your own space has long been a key factor in Pet Parenting.

More space – Small suburbs near a big metro area offer the convenience of the city, plus room for more pets. Bigger Suburbs work better for Services because there are more outlets.

Income Matters Most – High Income, A High Paying Occupation, An Advanced College Degree, At least 2 Earners. These are characteristics present in all of the Ultimate Pet Spending CUs.

Generation/Age – Gen X now rules. The 45>54 yr olds are the highest income group and all Gen X.

Region – Take your pick – Northeast or West, just not the Midwest or South.

I hope that this Visual Comparison helped you to get a “satellite view” of Pet Industry Spending in 2024 . Please refer back to the individual segment reports to get more details.

There is one consistent winner in the Pet Industry…

…OUR PET CHILDREN

 

 

 

 

 

2024 Veterinary Spending was $41.26B – Where did it come from…?

/in /by

Now we will turn to Veterinary Services. For years, Veterinary Services have had high inflation. This has resulted in CU income becoming the dominant factor in spending and a reduction in visit frequency.

In 2017 low inflation drove a 7.2% increase in visit frequency and a $2.5B spending lift. In 2018 inflation returned to normal. Consumers spent $0.56B more (+2.7%), but inflation was 2.6% so almost all of the lift was from higher prices. In 2019 the situation got worse. Consumers spent $0.58B (+2.7%) more but inflation was 4.1% so there was a decrease in the amount Vet Services purchased. In 2020 the pandemic hit, and Pet Parents focused on needs – Food & Veterinary. Veterinary spending grew $3.05B, (+14.0%). In 2021, this behavior grew even stronger and produced a record $7.82B (+31.5%) increase. In 2022 inflation reached 8.8%. Spending fell -$2.95B (-9.0%) but the amount of Vet Services sold fell 16.4%. In 2023 inflation was 9.4% but Vet Care is needed so spending grew $5.95B (+20.0%) – with inflation, +9.7%. In 2024, inflation slowed to 7.4% and the lift was still $5.60B, +15.7%. With inflation, it was really +7.7%.

We’ll start with the groups who were responsible for most of Vet spending in 2024 and the $5.6B increase. The 1st chart details the biggest Vet spenders for 10 demographic categories. It shows share of CU’s, share of Vet spending and their performance (Share of spending/share of CU’s). In performance – 7 groups perform at 120+%, 2 more than 2023 & 1 more than 2018>2021. This is also 1 more than Supplies, 2 more than Food, but 1 less than Services. These big spenders are performing well but it also signals that there is still disparity between the best and worst performing demographics in this “needed” segment. Only the CU Size & Income groups are different from Total Pet and the categories are listed in the order that reflects their share of Total Pet $pending. Again, High Income is the most important factor in Spending.

  1. Housing – Homeowners (81.7%) up from 81.2% Homeownership is a major factor in pet ownership and spending in all industry segments. In terms of importance to Veterinary spending, their 125.9% performance rating is up from 124.8%, but they dropped to 6th from 5th place in importance. Only Homeowners w/o Mtge spent less. Renters were +12.5% while All Homeowners were +16.5%. This produced the small gains in share & performance for Homeowners. We should also note that Homeownership is definitely not as important to Veterinary Spending as it once was. In 2015 their share was 88.4% with performance of 141.8%.
  2. Race/Ethnic – White, not Hispanic (79.3%) down from 84.7%. This group accounts for the vast majority of spending in every segment but lost share in Vet $ again in 2024. Their 120.0% performance is also down from 127.6% and they fell from #4 to #7 in importance in Veterinary Spending. All spent more, but the Minority increase was +56.4%, while Whites were up +8.4%. This caused the drops in share and performance.
  3. Area – Urban Areas (78.9%) down from 79.0% Suburban CU’s are the biggest spenders in every segment. All areas spent more and the lifts were in double digit % and very close in size. The Rural lift was slightly bigger. This explains why the drop in share was so small and caused their performance to stay at 97.6%. They’re still last in importance.
  4. Income – Over $100K (66.2%) up from 61.1% Their performance also grew from 167.7% to 174.5%. Higher income is still the most important factor in Veterinary spending. The only drops were $30>49K, -$0.27B and $70>149K, -$0.18B. The $150K> groups spent $5.68B more. This drove the big lifts in share and performance.
  5. # in CU – 2 or 3 People (62.5%) up from 61.9% This smaller group had a slight gain in share and their performance grew from 129.8% to 130.5%. CU Size’s rank in importance in Vet Spending moved up from #7 to #4. All but Singles, -$0.01B, spent more. 2/3 People CUs were +$3.69B, 66% of the overall lift in Vet Spending.
  6. Occupation – All Wage & Salaried (71.6%) up from 68.6% and their performance increased from 112.6% to 115.9%. In the group, all spent more. Outside the group, only Retirees, -$0.83B, spent less. White Collar workers spent $4.52B, +22.3% more. They drove the lifts in share in performance. Mgrs/Prof had the biggest lift, +$3.89B. We should also note that their perfomance lift was slowed a little because they had 1.9 million more CUs than in 2023.
  7. Education – College Grads (68.9%) up from 64.9%. Income generally increases with education. It is also important in understanding the need for regular Veterinary care. Their performance also increased from 135.8% to 143.2% and they stayed #2 in importance. Only <HS Grads & HS Grads w/some College spent less in 2023. College grads (48.1% of CUs) generated 94.6% of the 23>24 lift, which drove the increases in share and performance.
  8. CU Composition – Married Couples (63.8%) up from 61.5% Their performance also rose to 132.9% from 127.7% and they stayed #3 in importance. Only Married, +Adults, No kids, Single Parents & Singles spent less. The lifts in share and performance were due to All Married being +$4.39B, +20.0%.
  9. # Earners – 2+ CUs, 1 or 2 Earners (63.8%) up from 60.2% Their Performance also grew from 119.9% to 127.3%.  # Earners moved up from #6 to #5 in importance. Only No Earner CUs of any size spent less. 2 Earners, +$4.61B, +29.4%, drove the group’s lifts in share and performance.
  10. Age – 35>64 (60.4%) down from 60.8% Their performance also slowed a little from 116.7% to 116.6% but they stayed 8th in importance. Only 55>64, -$0.34B & 65>74, -$0.09B spent less. The 54>64 drop along with a +$2.13B lift by <35 were the big factors in the Group’s minor drops in share and performance.

Spending disparity rose in 6 categories. The average group performance was 128.4%, up from 125.4% in 2023 so spending became less balanced. Notably, a smaller group size made CU Size & # Earners more important. However, the 3 most important groups, $100K> Income, College Degrees & Married Couples are the same as 2023.

Now, we’ll look at 2024’s best and worst performing Veterinary spending segments in each category.

There are no surprising winners or losers but 6 are different from 2023, down from 9 last year. This is 3 more than Services, but 3 less than Supplies and 9 less than Food. Also, the average difference between Best & Worst was 99.4%, much more than 89.8% in 2023. There was considerable turmoil and 9 of 12 categories had increased disparity. The average difference grew considerably, so spending was less balanced. Changes from 2023 are “boxed”. We should note:

  • Income– The Winner changed from $200K>. The gap is 205.0%, 30% more than 2023.
  • Earners – No change in Winner or Loser, but the gap widened by 22.7%.
  • Occupation – Service Workers replaced Blue Collar at the bottom but the gap only widened by +0.7%.
  • Age – 45>54 replaced 55>64 yr-olds on top and the gap narrowed by -3.9%.
  • Race/Ethnic; Asians replaced African Americans on the bottom. The gap narrowed a lot, -35.3%.
  • Education; Housing; Area – These all had an expected repeat winner & loser and the performance gap increased for Education: +24.6%; Housing: +20.4%; Area: +1.3%.
  • Region – Northeast replaced West at the top. The South has now finished last for 9 years in a row, but the win/lose gap increased by 9.1%. Also, just 2 regions performed at 100+%, down from 3 in 2023.
  • CU Composition – Married, Child 18> replaced Couple Only on top. The gap widened, +42.7%.
  • # in CU – No changes, but the gap grew by +5.7%. Only 1 & 5+ people CUs perform below 100%.
  • Generation – No changes and the performance gap narrowed by -2.3%.

It’s time to “Show you the money”. Here are segments with the biggest $ changes in Veterinary Spending.

We saw some turmoil in performance. It lessens here. There were 10 repeats, and 4  segments flipped from 1st to last or vice versa. Last year there was 1 repeat and 13 flips. There were no truly surprising winners and there were only 2 somewhat surprising losers – Boomers & the West. In 2024 there were 2 categories in which all segments spent more. In 2023, there were 4. Plus, in 2023, 82.3% of 96 demographic segments spent more. In 2024, that slowed a little to 81.3%. If you consider 7.4% inflation, 69.8% still spent more in 2024.

  • Housing – Homeowners w/Mtges stayed on top and those w/o Mtges stayed on the bottom.
    • Winner – Homeowner w/Mtge – Veterinary: $24.46B; Up $5.36B (+28.0%)                                        2023: Homeowner w/Mtge
    • Loser – Homeowner w/o Mtge – Veterinary$: $27B; Down $0.59B (-6.0%)                                         2023: Homeowner w/o Mtge
    • Comment – In 2023, all segments spent more. In 2024, only Homeowners w/o Mtge spent less. Renters were +$0.84B, +12.5+. They account for 35.1% of CUs but only 18.3% of Veterinary spending, 52.0% performance. All Homeowners were +$4.77B, +16.5% and had 125.9% performance.
  • # Earners – 2 Earners won again while No Earner, 2+ CUs replaced No Earner, Singles as the loser.
    • Winner – 2 Earners – Veterinary Spending: $20.30B; Up $4.61B (+29.4%)                                            2023: 2 Earners
    • Loser – No Earner, 2+ CU – Veterinary Spending: $3.03B; Down $0.39B (-11.3%)                               2023: No Earner, Single
    • Comment – Only No Earner CUs spent less. The 2nd largest lift was +$1.13B by 3+ Earner CUs. We should note that the increase by 1 Earner, Singles was only +$0.01B.
  • Occupation – Mgrs/Prof won again but Retirees replaced Blue Collar on the bottom.
    • Winner – Mgrs & Professionals – Vet Spending: $18.66B; Up $3.89B (+26.4%)                                      2023: Mgrs & Professionals
    • Loser – Retired – Vet Spending: $6.08B; Down $0.83B (-12,0%)                                                                 2023: Blue Collar
    • Comment – Only Retirees spent less. Amazingly, All Other, Unemployed had the 2nd biggest lift, +$0.79B. White Collar workers were +$4.52B, 80.7% of the Veterinary increase from 42.4% of CUs.
  • Generation – Millennials are a new winner. Boomers flipped to the bottom.
    • Winner – Millennials – Veterinary: $12.99B; Up $3.77B (+40.8%)                                           2023: Baby Boomers
    • Loser – Baby Boomers – Veterinary: $10.27B; Down $1.67B (-14.0%)                                   2023: Born <1946
    • Comments – Only Baby Boomers spent less. This comes after a +$2.21B lift in 2023. Millennials were more consistent. In 2023, they finished a close 2nd to the Boomers, +$2.09B. In 2024, they led the charge. Gen X is the most consistent. 23>24: +$2.34B; 22>23: +$1.13B; 21>22: +$0.46B (Note: Vet $ were -$2.95B in 2022.)
  • Income – $150>199K stayed on top and $40>49K replaced <$30K at the bottom.
    • Winner – $150>199K – Veterinary Spending: $8.98B; Up $3.63B (+67.9%)                                     2023: $150>199K
    • Loser – $40>49K – Veterinary Spending: $1.52B; Down $0.24B (-13.4%)                                        2023: <$30K
    • Comment – Only the $30>49K, $70>99K & $100>149K groups spent less. All big groups, under/over $70K & $100K had increases. The $150K> group drove the lift. They were +$5.68B (101% of the total Vet increase)
  • Region – The West flipped to the bottom and the Northeast replaced them on top.
    • Winner – Northeast – Veterinary Spending: $10.23B; Up $3.51B (+52.3%)                                    2023: West
    • Loser – West – Veterinary Spending: $9.69B; Down $0.62B (-6.0%)                                                2023: Midwest
    • Comment – All Regions but West spent more. The 2nd biggest lift was +$2.28B by the South.
  • CU Composition – Married, Oldest Child 18> flipped to the top. Married, + Adults replaced them on the bottom.
    • Winner – Married, Oldest Child 18> – Veterinary: $5.80B; Up $3.01B (+107.8%)                                 2023: Married, Couple Only
    • Loser – Married, + Adults – Veterinary: $1.16B; Down $0.56B (-32.6%)                                                 2023: Married, Child 18>
    • Comment – Single Parents & Singles also spent less. 2023 favored CUs with no children. 2024 had no clear pattern. However, Married, With Children were +$3.78B, +41.6%. The largest % lift by any big group.
  • Education – Adv. College degree stayed on top. HS w/some College replaced HS Grads at the bottom.
    • Winner – Adv. College Degree – Veterinary Spending: $14.72B; Up $2.87B (+24.2%)                               2023: Adv Degree
    • Loser – HS Grads w/some College – Veterinary Spending: $5.11B; Down $0.44B (-8.0%)                       2023: HS Grads
    • Comment – In 2023, only <HS & HS Grads had spending decreases. In 2024, <HS & HS Grads w/some College spent less. Total <College was positive, +$0.30B. College Grads were +$5.30B, +22.9%. BA/BS finished a close 2nd to Adv. Degrees, +$2.43B, +21.5%.
  • Area Type – Both Winner & Loser held their spots.
    • Winner – Suburbs 2500> – Veterinary Spending: $19.99B; Up $2.78B (+16.2%)                                      2023: Suburbs 2500>
    • Loser – Rural – Veterinary Spending: $8.69B; Up $1.21B (+16.1%)                                                             2023: Rural
    • Comment – In 2020 & 2021 all groups spent more. In 2022, all spent less. In 2023 & 2024, all spent more again. Since 2020, all segments have the same spending pattern. In 2024, Center City stayed in 2nd place, +$1.61B, +14.7%. The Suburbs 2500> have the biggest share of Vet $, 48.5% and generated 49.6% of the lift.
  • # in CU – 2 People stayed on top and 1 Person replaced 4 People on the bottom.
    • Winner – 2 People – Veterinary Spending: $17.79B; Up $2.66B (+17.6%)                                       2023: 2 People
    • Loser – 1 Person – Veterinary Spending: $6.39B; Down $0.01B (-0.2%)                                         2023: 4 People
    • Comment: In 2022, all spent less. In 2023, only 4 People CUs spent less. In 2024, it was 1 Person, -$0.01B. 2 People still had the biggest increase but the other lifts were more balanced. 3 people: +$1.03; 4 people: +$1.04B.
  • Race/Ethnic – Whites stayed on top while Asians replaced African Americans at the bottom.
    • Winner – White, Not Hispanic– Veterinary: $32.72B; Up $2.52B (+8.4%)                                           2023: White, Not Hispanic
    • Loser – Asian – Veterinary: $1.11B; Up $0.12B (+12.7%)                                                                        2023: African Americans
    • Comment– All groups spent more – more balance. Minorities were +$3.08B, 55% of the Vet lift. Only Asians had a minor lift. African Americans: +$1.86B, +164.0%; Hispanics: +$1.10B, +32.8%.
  • Age – 55>64 flipped to the bottom. 35>44 replaced them on top. BTW: That’s the 3rd consecutive flip for 55>64.
    • Winner – 35>44 yrs – Veterinary Spending: $8.52B; werUp $2.02B (+31.2%)                                  2023: 55>64 yrs
    • Loser – 55>64 yrs – Veterinary Spending: $7.95B; Down $0.34B (-4.1%)                                          2023: 45>54 yrs
    • Comment: All segments spent more in 23. In 24, 65>74 also spent less, -$0.09B. Spending skewed a little younger. <45: +$4.15B; 45>: +$1.45B. The 2nd biggest lift was +$1.67B by 25>34. #3 was +$1.53B by 45>54.

We’ve now seen the winners and losers in terms of increase/decrease in Veterinary Spending $ for 12 Demographic Categories. 2022 had a $2.95B drop. The decrease brought a lot of turmoil in the $ changes. In 2023 there was a huge turnaround as spending rose $5.95B, +20.0% and reached $35.66B. However, the turmoil in $ change continued. In 2024, the big lift continued, +$5.60B, +15.7% to $41.26B. Veterinary Services passed Pet Food and became #1 in spending by Pet Industry Segments. In 2024, in the change chart, 10 held their spot and only 4 flipped from 1st to last or vice versa. In 2023 there was 1 hold and 13 flips. In 2024, there was far less turmoil and greater stability. There were similarities between 2023 & 2024 but 2024 wasn’t always best. In 2023, 82.3% of demographics spent more and there were 4 categories where all segments had increases. In 2024, 81.3% spent more and there were 2 categories where all segments spent more. The “hidden gems” were still easy to find. Here are some segments that didn’t win but helped drive the big lift in Veterinary spending. These groups don’t win an award, but they certainly deserve…

HONORABLE MENTION

The big lift by African Americans shows more racial balance & high income is not an absolute necessity. Gen Z continues to increase their commitment to Pet Parenting. Veterinary Services spending is skewing a little younger as the 25>34 yr-olds and Gen Z become more aware of its importance. Income matters most but the # earners is increasing in importance. 3+ earners have high income and increased their Vet $ by $1.1B.  2 & 3 People CUs spend the most but the key is 2+. 4 people CUs still earn their share of Veterinary spending with 105% performance. Higher Education usually means higher income which helps with growing Vet prices, but it is also important in understanding the need for a Vet. This group shows that the lift was widespread.

Summary

In 2020 the pandemic focused Pet Parents on the needed segments. This drove a $3B increase in Veterinary $. Boomers & Millennials led the way, but the lift was widespread as 85% of demographic segments spent more. In 2021 the lift grew to a record $7.82B with 93% of all segments spending more including 9 categories where all segments had increases. In 2022, the “binge” was not repeated. Inflation also increased radically to 8.8% and spending fell -$2.95B (-9.0%). Only 23% of demographics spent more and in 3 categories all segments decreased spending.

In 2023 Inflation grew to 9.4% but the higher income groups stepped up. The $30>49K segments also found the $. The result was a $5.95B, +20.0% increase as Veterinary Spending reached $35.66B. In 2024, Vet Spending was +$5.60B, +15.7% and reached $41.26B, now #1 in the Pet Industry. 81.3% of demographics spent more (down from 82.3%) and in 2 categories all segments increased spending (down from 4). Even considering the 7.4% inflation, 69.8% spent more.

The performance of big spending groups is very important in all industry segments. In Veterinary we identified 7 demographic categories with high performing (120+%) large groups, 2 more than 2023. It is also 1 more than Supplies & 2 more than Pet Food, but 1 less than Services. The big groups with a high-performance level in Veterinary are:

  • Income: $100K> (174.5%) Performance increases with income but doesn’t reach 100+% until income reaches $100K
  • Education: College Grads (143.2%) Performance increases with education, but only College Grads are 100+%.n
  • CU Composition: Married Couples (132.9%) All Married CUs, but those with extra adults (no kids) perform at 100+%.
  • CU Size: 2>3 People (130.5%) They are the top 2 performers, but only 5+ (93.8%) & 1 (51.5%) are <100%.
  • # Earners: 2+ CUs, 1 or 2 Earners (127.3%) Only No Earner or 1 Earner CUs of any size perform <100%.
  • Housing: Homeowners (125.9%) Only Homeowners w/Mtge (160.6%) perform above 100%.
  • Race/Ethnic: White, Not Hispanic (120.0%). More Balanced, but Minorities still only perform between 52% and 68%.

Consumers have no control over Race/Ethnicity but can make decisions in the other categories. Income is still the most important factor. The others are important but lower in performance – 120>143%. Spending grew in 2024 and became less balanced, now with 7 big groups performing over 120% (up from 5). Another indication of this is that the average spending disparity between the best and worst performing segments grew from 89.8% to 99.4%. We should also note that the 50/50 spending dividing line increased from $124K to $141K, further emphasizing income’s importance.

Perhaps the biggest concern is high inflation. In 2021 spending grew 31.5% in the pandemic surge. Inflation was relatively high at 4.2% but 84% of the growth was real. In 2022 spending fell -9.0%. Inflation was 8.8% so the amount sold was really down -16.4%. In 2023, inflation reached a record 9.4%. Spending was +20.0% so the “real” increase was 9.7%. In 2024, inflation slowed to 7.4% but the lift also slowed to 15.7%. The “real” increase was 7.7%. If high inflation continues, it could have a major impact on Veterinary Spending. We’ll see.

Finally – The “Ultimate” Veterinary Services Spending CU consists of 3 people – a married couple with a child still at home. Their child is 18>. They are 45>54 yr-old Gen Xers. They are White, but not of Hispanic origin. Both work. At least one of them has an Adv. College Degree and is a Mgr/Professional. Their total income is $150>199K. They live in a rural area in the Northeast and are still paying off the mortgage on their home.