Archive for year: 2026

The U.S. Retail market reached $8.7 Trillion in 2025 from all channels – Auto Dealers, Supermarkets, Restaurants, Online retailers and even Pet Stores. The $314B, +3.7% lift was down significantly from the pandemic recovery lift of +$1.12T, +18.3% in 2021. However, the Total Retail market is now $2.64T, 43.4% ahead of 2019. That’s a strong annual growth rate of +6.2%. (Data courtesy of the Census Bureau’s monthly retail trade report.)

In this report we will focus on the top 100 Retailers in the U.S. Market. The base data on the Top 100 comes from Kantar Research and was published by the National Retail Federation (NRF). The historical data for some companies that weren’t in the Top 100 all years from 2019>2023 was gathered from other reliable sources. In 2020, Restaurants were removed from the list and only Convenience stores sales for Gas Stations were included. I adjusted the 2019 list to reflect this change. This change means that the Top 100 now only includes Relevant Retail companies. The Top 100 account for 36.0% of the total market. This share peaked at 39.8% during the 2020 pandemic and has stabilized at 36% since then. However, the Top 100 are still the “Retail Elite”. The vast majority of the group also stock and sell a lot of Pet Products so their progress is critically important to the Pet Industry. Let’s get started in our analysis. The report does contain a lot of data, but no longer a store count. We’ll still break it up into smaller pieces to make it more digestible.

We will begin our report with an overview chart of the 2019>2025 annual sales history for major segments of the Retail Marketplace. The U.S. Retail market strongly recovered from the 2020 pandemic trauma and the resurgence became widespread across most channels. Our regular retail sales reports have shown that different defined retail channels often took a different path from 2019 to 2021. In the Spring of 2021 and throughout 2022 the retail market faced a new challenge – strong inflation. The YOY price increases were the largest in decades, even reaching double digits in October of 2021 (stayed for 11 months). The high rate didn’t start to slow until July of 2022. Although the increase rate has slowed, the retail market is still feeling the impact of high cumulative inflation. The Top 100 analysis allows us to see if the company revenue size was a factor in their overall pandemic/price journey from 2019>2025. The following chart shows the annual sales and market share as well as the changes in both for large retail subgroups that are based upon the amount of their annual revenue. Note: In comments we’ll show Avg Growth Rates – Actual & Real (Inflation Related)

• The Total Retail Market grew $247B, +3.7% in 2025. That is far less than the $1.12T, +18.3% in 2021 and even below some pre-pandemic years: 2019, 3.6%; 2018, 4.9%; 2017, 4.3%. However, the average growth rate from 2019>25 is 6.2%, which is 59% above the 2016>19 rate of 3.9%. Factoring in inflation, Real 19>24 growth was +2.8%, about the same as the 16>19 real rate of +2.7%. Retail inflation was below 1% in 2025 but it still has a cumulative impact – smaller sales increases and only 45% of 19>25 growth is real.
• The “Non-Relevant” Group (Restaurants, Auto Dealers, Gas Stations) was hit hardest by the pandemic as sales fell -9.7% in 2020. They had a strong recovery as 20>22 sales grew $906B, 41.9%. Average annual growth: 18.8%. In 23 the increase slowed to 2.5% & 2.2% in 24. High inflation from 2019 was a factor. Gas: 27%; Auto: 24%; Restaurants: 28% In 2025, inflation slowed for all, which certainly contributed to the increased lift of 3.4%.
• Relevant Retail was the hero of the pandemic as they kept Total Retail positive in 2020. Their sales surged in the 2021 recovery then radically slowed in 23 (3.9%), 24 (3.6%) & 25 (3.9%). They were up $204B in 2025 producing an average growth rate since 2019 of +6.5%. Their Real growth rate (considering inflation) was +3.0%. Their share of Total Retail has stabilized at 61>62%, down 2.9% from its peak of 64.6% in 2020. The story is complex.
• The Top 100 Retailers make up 58.2% of Relevant Retail and 36.0% of Total Retail. Sales have grown every year since 2019, but growth slowed markedly in 23 before an uptick in 24. It slowed again in 25. Their market share has fallen since peaking in 2020 for Total Retail and 2019 for Relevant Retail. Their average growth since 2019 is +5.1%, but Real Growth is +2.3%. 45.1% of their growth is real.
• The biggest subgroup in $ in the Top 100 is the Top 10 which accounts for 60.2% of the Top 100’s revenue, up from 55% in 2019. This group has been unchanged since 2015 and consists of Amazon, plus truly essential brick ‘n mortar retailers. Their biggest sales surge occurred in 2020 which was their peak in Total & Relevant Retail market share. Their growth slowed in 23, rose in 24, then fell in 25. Their avg growth rate is +6.7%. Real growth was +3.9% – 58.2%.
• The Retailers ranked from #11 to #100 change slightly every year. Their sales in 25 ranged from $4.1B to $75.9B and they accounted for 39.8% of the Top 100’s revenue. They have an unusual sales pattern in that their -$46B decrease in 2020 is the only negative sales on the chart outside of the big drop by Rest/Auto/Gas. They did have a big 10.7% increase in 2021 but that fell to 1.9% in 23 & 1.5% in 24, before turning up to 2.8% in 25. They have lost share in Total & Rel. Retl every year since 2019 but are still a big part of U.S. Retail. Avg Growth: +3.0%; Real: 0.9% – 30.0%.
• The Relevant Retailers outside of the Top 100 don’t get a lot of “press” but maybe they should. They currently account for 41.8% of Relevant Retail $ and 25.8% of Total Retail. They had the biggest percentage increase of any Relevant Retail subgroup overall and in all years, but 20 & 24. Their avg increase is +8.8%. Real: +5.8% (66.5%), the best numbers of any group on the chart. While this performance is amazing, perhaps the most important fact is that they delivered 59% of Relevant Retail’s sales increase in 2020 and even 52% of the lift from 2019>2025.

There is no doubt that the big retailers are critical to the success of the U.S. Retail Market. However, there are sometimes “hidden heroes” that should be noted.

The Top 100 only outperformed Total Retail in 2020 and 2024. In fact, the sales growth since 2019 trails Total Retail, Relevant Retail and even Rest/Auto/Gas. It still generates 36.0% of Total U.S. Retail $ so it is still very important. We also should remember that the Top 100 is really a contest with a changing list of winners. Companies drop out and new ones are added. This can be the result of mergers, acquisitions, surging or slumping sales or even a restructuring. In 2025,

5 adds:  Family Dollar (Small Value) • Five Below (Small Value) • Saks Global (Dept Str) • Murphy USA (Convenience) • Abercrombie & Fitch (Apparel)

5 drops: • Save Mart (Supmkt)  • Foot Locker (Apparel)  • Rite Aid (Drug) • Hudson’s Bay & Neiman Marcus (2 Dept Strs)

I think that we now have a good overview of U.S. Retail and the Top 100 so let’s turn our attention to Pet Products. They have become very important & the market is extremely competitive. How many of the Top 100 sell Pet Products?

• We should note that the data in the chart only reflects the performance of the companies in the 2025 list since 2019 and is not being compared to the Top 100 list of companies from prior years
• 90 are selling some Pet Products in stores and/or online. This is 2 more companies than 2024 and 10 more than the 1^st “official” all Relevant Retail Top 100 list in 2020.
  • Their Total Retail Sales of all products is $3.04 Trillion which is…
    • 97.1% of the total business for the Top 100
    • 56.5% of Relevant Retail
    • 34.9% of the Total Retail market
  • 74 Cos., with $2.84T in sales, sell pet products off the retail shelf – 90.8% of Top 100 $ & 52.9% of Relevant Retail.
    • In 2025, only 2 companies in the current Top 100 changed how they handle pet products. Exxon Mobil added pet to most stores, but Advance Auto flipped from in store to online.
    • As you can see by the growth in sales, “in store” is still the best way to sell pet.
  • Online only is another story and the story gets complicated.
    • Amazon includes Whole Foods, which has stores in 45 states so the Amazon $ are in the “Pet in Store” numbers.
    • As we said, one retailer now offers Pet online rather than in store. This group had the smallest sales lifts in 24>25 and 19>25.but they still lead Non-Pet in the real 24>25 $ lift.
  • Some non-pet specialty retailers like Lulumon and Signet have had extraordinarily strong post pandemic growth. The growth in the whole non-pet group slowed in 2022, fell -2.7% in 2023, then rebounded to +2.0% in 2024 & +4.0% in 2025. They are the 19>25 growth leader, but perhaps, more of them will see Pet as another growth opportunity.

The pandemic caused our Pets to become an even more important part of our households. They are truly family. Pet products have long been an integral part of the strongest retailers and are now even more widespread across the entire U.S. marketplace. Of the Top 100, Companies doing 91% of sales stock & sell at least some pet items. However, there are thousands of additional “pet” retail outlets including 15,000 Grocery Stores, 10,000 Pet Stores, 16,000 Vet Clinics, 6,000 Pet Services businesses and more. Pet Products are on the shelf in over 200,000 U.S. brick ‘n mortar stores… plus the internet. Pet Products have become part of the new “normal” for the majority of U.S. Retailers.

Before we analyze the whole Top 100 list in greater detail let’s take a quick look at the Top 10 retailers in the U.S.

This group has been incredibly stable. Even the rank is the same as 24. The list has been the same since 2013, with one slight qualification. In 2015 Albertsons purchased Safeway. The new Albertsons/Safeway group replaced the stand-alone Safeway company in the list. We have included the growth, both Actual & Real (Inflation was factored in using specifically targeted CPIs) for 24>25 & 19>25. Plus, the average growth rates for 19>25. Now let’s get into the numbers.

• Their Total Retail Sales were $1.88 Trillion which is:
  • 60.2% of Top 100 $ales, 0.1% above the previous 2024 peak (60.1%), but 5.2% more than 55% in 2019.
  • 35.0% of Relevant Retail, above 21>23 but down from 35.3% in 2024 & 36.3% in 2020.
  • 21.7% of Total U.S. Retail $, above 2019 and 21>23, but down from 21.8% in 2024 & 23.4% in 2020.
• In ranking, there was no change – rather unusual.
• Sales vs 24 are actually & really down for Home Depot & Target .
• All are actually up vs 19, but Kroger & Walgreens were really down. The biggest growth came from Amazon. In average growth, 4 have rates over 6%, but 2 are really <0%. The group averages +6.7% with +3.9%, 58.2% being real.

Now we’ll look at the detailed list of the top 100. It is sorted by channel groups with subtotals in key columns. The data only reflects the situation for the current 2025 Top 100 Retailers. Retailers have slightly changed in some groups through the years but there has been very little difference in group share. CPI Note: To better reflect their “real” product sales, I used a specific CPI rate for each retailer. These ranged from individual expenditures, like Alcohol at Home for Total Wine & More to specially created targeted aggregates for Superstores/Clubs. For the group, the individual inflation results were then combined to more accurately reflect the group price changes .  There is not a lot of highlighting, but:

• Pet Columns ’25 & ‘24 – a “1” with an orange highlight indicates that products are only sold online.
• Rank Columns – 2025 changes in rank from the 2024 list are highlighted as follows:
• Up 3-5 spots = Lt Blue; Up 6 or more = Green
• Down 3-5 Spots = Yellow; Down 6 or more = Pink

Let’s get started. Remember, online $ are included in the sales of all companies.

Note:(*) in the 19>25 $ Chge % column of some Co’s means the 2019 base was estimated from other sources.

Observations

• Alcohol Retailers first made the list in 2020 as consumers increased dining at home. Strong growth continues.
• Apparel – They were hit hard by the pandemic but had a strong recovery in 21. The 24>25 increase was stable at 5.3%. 3 companies had sales decreases, but 6 had lifts over 7% from 24. Foot Locker was bought by Dick’s Sporting, but Abercrombie & Fitch was added. The channel has 14 companies, the most ever and 50+% more than in 2019 (9). Also, 11 sell Pet. In 2019, there were 3. The average group sales increase was Actual: +6.0%; Real: +5.0% (83%).
• Auto – This group is unchanged from 2019. Their growth continues to slow, +2.2%, down from +5.0% in 23 and +5.5% in 2019. The biggest negative is Advance Auto is actually & really down from 24 and even really down vs 2019. Also, they did move pet items from in store to online only. The group’s Avg Growth: +8.5%; Real: +4.4%. (52%).
• Commissary/Exchanges – They were on hold from 2019>22. The 22/23 lift was +5.9%, but 23/24 fell to +0.6% & 24/25 was +1.0%. Their Avg Actual Sales Lift is +0.2%, but their Real Sales Lift Avg is -4.0%.
• Convenience Stores – 7-Eleven $ continued to drop so the group is actually & really down vs 24. Vs 2019, Alimentation Couche-Tard & Exxon Mobil were actually & really down which pushed the group to really negative. Some positive notes are Murphy USA (in store Pet) was added & Exxon Mobil now has Pet. They chose in store. Avg Actual Sales change: 3.7%; Real: -0.7%. (No real %)
• The decline in Department Stores was accelerated by the pandemic. In 2025, Neiman Marcus & Hudson’s Bay were consolidated under Sak’s Global. 2025 was a bad year for Department Stores. Only 2 of 6 companies had an actual & real lift vs 24. Vs 2019, only Dillards had an actual increase, but real sales were negative for all. The group’s measurements are all negative. J.C. Penny has by far the worst performance. Avg Growth: -2.5%; Real: -4.4%
• Drug Stores – Rite Aid shut down in 25. The others are all positive vs 24. All have been closing stores since 2019. Good Neighbor is actually & really down vs 19 but even Walgreens is really down. Actual Avg: +4.2%; Real: +2.7% (64% real). CVS has the most growth, but mainly from acquisitions.

• Electronics/Entertainment – Sales vs 24 rose for all but QVC & Dell. Cell phone companies had the biggest lifts. Store closures continued, especially for electronics retailers.
  • Amazon Retail grew 7.4% in 25 but the lift is only 56% of their average 19>25 growth. However, 93% is Real.
  • 3 were actually down vs 19 (2 real). Dell had the worst Actual avg, -8.2%. QVC had the worst Real avg, -8.3%.
  • Only 1 Electronics store was down vs 24 but 2 were down vs 2019. They continue to close stores. However, strong deflation has pushed real sales up so only Dell is “really” down vs 2019.
  • Group avg growth, Actual: +8.0%; Real: +8.2%. Deflation in electronics was strong enough to impact the group.
• Farm– Tractor Supply growth rose to 4.3% from 2.2% in 24 & 3.4% in 23, but it is still far below 11.4% in 22. Avg growth, Actual: +10.9%; Real: +7.0% (64%).
• Hobby & Crafts– Vs 24 & 19, all measurements are positive. Michael’s is the best performer vs 2024, while Hobby Lobby wins vs 2019. Avg Group Growth: 3.5%; Real: +1.8%. 51% is real.
• Home Goods – Vs 24 & 19, only Amway & Ikea are actually & really down. Williams Sonoma is really down vs 24 and AVB is really down vs 19. Avg growth: +4.0%; Real: +1.2% (30%).
• Home Improvement/Hardware – Sales vs last year turned negative in 23, -2.5%. The situation flipped in 24 to +2.0% & growth slowed to 1.5% in 25. Home Depot had the only drop – actual & real, but it turned the channel really down
  • Sales vs 2019 are better. All measurements are positive but real for Menards, -6.0%.
  • Avg Actual Growth: +5.4%; Real: +1.7% ( 31.5% “Real” growth)
• Jewelry – Signet sales turned around to +1.7% from -4.9% in 24. Avg: 6.7%; Real: 3.9% (58%).
• Mass Merchants have 3 of the 8 largest volume retailers in America – Wal-Mart, Costco and Target. However, the value and selection offered by the whole group has increased its importance to consumers due to the pandemic.
  • Wal-Mart $ were up 4.2% in 2025, below 6.5% in 2024, 6.9% in 2023, 8.7% in 2022 and their average 19>25 increase in sales: +6.3%. Their business is driven by SuperCenters. Groceries drove up cumulative inflation, so their real sales avg increase was 3.4%, despite deflation in many general merchandise categories. 54% of their sales are real.
  • Costco’s 2025 $ increase was +8.6% up from +4.4% in 2024 & +6.8% in 2023, but radically less than +16.9% in 2022 and even 15% below their 10.1% 19>25 average. Average real growth was 7.1% (70%). They continue to open new stores and expand their internet offerings.
  • Target – After 6 consecutive annual sales increases, sales fell -1.6% in 2023, turned slightly positive in 2024, +0.8%, then fell -2.0% in 2025. Their growth peaked at +13.2% in 2021. Avg Growth: 4.9%; Real Growth: 2.1%, 43% real. They continue to open more supercenters. However, their key growth strategy is to expand the product mix in their discount stores, especially by adding more fresh groceries.
  • Meijer’s $ales growth continues to slow, 1.6% in 25, 2.3% in 24, 3.7% in 23 & 5.6% in 22. They are now 63% below their avg of 4.3%. Their avg real growth is 1.5%, so only 35% is real.
  • BJ’s growth slowed to +5.0% from +5.6% in 24 and it’s far down from +22.8% in 22. They do have the 2nd highest growth since 2019 of any company in the group, +59.6%. Avg growth: +8.1%; Real: 5.2%, 64% real.
  • We should note that Costco ranks 1st & BJ’s 2^nd in both comparisons vs 2019 and Sam’s Club is a significant share of Wal-Mart’s total sales. Mass Merchants are the biggest category, and Club stores have moved to the retail forefront. Mass Merchant Avg growth: +6.8%; Real: +3.9%, 57% real.

• Office Supply Stores – This channel continues its consistent decline as Consumers maintain their move to online ordering of these products. Only Staples remains on the list. They are up +1.7% in 25, but all other Staples comparisons are negative, and their Avg Growth is: -2.2%; Real:-7.1%.
• Pet Stores’ growth in 25 was +2.6%, up from +2.2% in 24, but down from +6.0% in 23, +7.3% in 22 and a big drop from their 21 peak of +22.3%. However, they are up +61.7% from 2019. Most of the growth in all measurements comes from Chewy’s online sales. Pet Store Avg Growth: +8.3%; Real: +5.4%, 65%.
  • With the strong consumer movement to online purchasing, Chewy is still the big story in this channel. They have the most sales. Their 25 lift was +6.2%, down from +6.4% in 24, +10.4% in 23, 13.6% in 22 and +24.4% in 21, but 2.4 times the Pet Store group’s 2025 $ increase. Their 105.2% sales increase vs 2019 is also triple that of the retail outlets. Avg Growth rate: +12.7%; Real: +9.6%. 76% of their big increase is real.
  • PetSmart’s 25 growth was 0.9%, up from +0.1% in 24, but down from +2.0% in 23, +2.2% in 22 and radically below +23.1% in 21. Sales growth was below 1% in 24/25 but they are still up +36.5% from 2019. Their Average growth rate is +5.3%. Real growth is +2.5%, 47%. The real % is far below Chewy’s, but not too bad.
  • Petco’s 25 sales were -2.3%, slightly better than -2.7% in 24, but a big change from +3.7% in 23, +4.1% in 22 and +17.6% in 21. Their growth since 2019 is +33.3%, slightly behind PetSmart. Avg growth: +4.9%; Real: +2.0%, 41%. A big difference from PetSmart is that Petco has cut back on their retail stores.
• Small Format Value Stores – These stores offer value and convenience. Dollar Tree sold Family Dollar & Five Below had a big lift, so we have 2 additions to the group.
  • Group sales increased +4.2%, similar to +4.1% in 24 & +4.7% in 23. Avg Growth: +6.9%; Real: +4.0%, 58%.
  • Dollar General is the largest and has strong growth, +6.3% in 25. Avg Growth: +7.6%; Real: +4.7%, 62%. Dollar Tree also showed their strength, +6.0% in 25. Avg Growth: +7.7%; Real: +4.8%, 62%. Family Dollar continues to fade, -10.1% in 25. Avg Growth: 1.2; Real: -1.6%. Five Below jumped into the game with a 22.9% lift in 25.
• Sporting Goods – Dick’s acquisition of Foot Locker made a big difference, but all Company comparisons vs 2024 & 2019 are positive. Group is +21.7% vs 24. Avg $ Growth: +8.1%; Real: +6.6%, 81%.
  • Dick’s also had the best $ performance before the acquisition. 2025 sales, +48.5%. Avg: 15.0%; Real: 13.5%, 90%. Camping World is +4.4% in 25. Avg Growth: +4.6%; Real: +3.2%, 70%.; Academy, +2.0% in 25. Avg Growth: +3.0%; Real: +1.7%, 57%. Bass Pro, +2.3% in 25. They have the worst performance. Avg Growth: +2.4%; Real: +1.1%, 46%.
• Supermarkets – 1 drop out – Save Mart. They are still the biggest group with 23 companies. 25 Sales vs 24, +3.6%. Avg Growth: +5.5%; Real: 1.0%, 18%.
  • 4 were down vs 24. 4 more were really down. Biggest Changes: Sprouts, +14.1%; Ingles, -4.3%
  • Vs 2019, only Save-A-Lot was actually down, but 8 more (including Kroger) were really down – sold less product.
  • Sales continue to increase but you see the impact of cumulative inflation – only 18% of the 19>25 growth is real.
  • With $598B in sales and all stores carrying Pet Products, this group is definitely essential both to the Retail Market and the Pet Industry.

Wrapping it up!

This report is focused on 2025, but we can also see the continued evolution of the Retail Marketplace. In 2020 many non-essential retailers were hit with restrictions and closures. On the plus side, consumers turned their focus to essentials and their homes. This helped drive incredible growth in many retail channels.

In 2021 the Total Retail market moved into a full recovery with spectacular growth. Many channels showed a strong sales rebound from 2020. Others built upon their pandemic success while many returned to a more normal growth pattern. However, a few continued to decline. The Top 100 companies had participants in all of these patterns.

In 2022 strong inflation hit many categories which slowed both actual and real growth. Inflation slowed 23>25 but we still saw its cumulative impact. The annual lifts were relatively stable but lower. Plus, sales of some retailers actually fell.

The Top 100 is a contest with the winners changing slightly every year. It is a critical part of the U.S. Market, accounting for almost 60% of Relevant Retail Revenue and 36+% of Total Retail. Sales have increased annually but the Top 100’s share of Total Retail peaked in 2020 and in 2019 for Relevant Retail and steadily declined except for a lift in 24. The Top 10 has had stronger annual growth but sales in the #11>100 group actually fell in 2020 and their 19>25 increase is only 41% of the Top 10’s lift. We also must remember our new hero – Relevant Retail, not in the Top 100. The 19>25 Sales by these smaller guys are +65.8%, 37% more than the Top 10. Their performance slowed in 24 but rebounded in 25.

Pet Products are an important part of the success of the Top 100. 90 companies (97.1% of $) sell Pet items in stores and/or online. The 74 companies that stock pet products in their stores generated $2.84T in total sales. How much was from pet? Let’s “Do the math”. If we take out the $26.2B done by Top 100 Pet stores and the remaining companies generated only 1.7% (based on the Economic Census) of their sales from Pet, we’re looking at $47.9B in Pet Products sales from 71 non-pet sources! If you add Pet Stores & Chewy into the $, Pet Products sales for the Top 100 are $74.1B. The APPA reported $102.7B in Pet Products sales for 25. That means 71 mass market retailers accounted for 46.6% of all the Pet Products sold in the U.S. and 74 Top 100 companies generated 72.2%. Pet Products are widespread in the retail market but the $ are concentrated. Pet Industry participants should monitor the Top 100.

Retail sales lifts in 25 mainly grew for smaller Cos. Cumulative inflation is still a major factor. The situation is still evolving but the Top 100 will always be a critical part of US Retail. I hope that this report helps to put the group into a better perspective.

In May, YOY Commodities’ inflation rose to 5.5% from 4.6%. Strong current inflation rates (like gasoline) or just high cumulative inflation vs 21 can impact consumer spending and slow actual and/or real $ales growth.  We saw evidence of both of these in May. Total Retail $ were +5.2% vs 25, 11.3% above the avg 92>25 lift. However, Relevant Retail was +4.6%, -1.8% below their May avg. The situation is definitely complex and there is still a long road to full recovery. We’ll continue to track the retail market with data from 2 reports provided by the Census Bureau and factor in a targeted CPI.

The Census Bureau Reports are the Monthly and the Advance Retail Sales Reports. Both are derived from sales data gathered from retailers across the U.S. and are published monthly at the same time. The Advance Report has a smaller sample size so it can be published quickly – normally, 2 weeks after month end. The Monthly Report includes data from all respondents, so it takes longer to compile the data – about 6 weeks. Although the sample size for the Advance report is smaller, the results over the years have proven it to be statistically accurate with the Monthly reports. The biggest difference is that the full sample in the Monthly report allows us to “drill” a little deeper into the retail channels.

We will begin with the April Monthly Report and then go to the May Advance Report. Our focus is comparing to last year but also 21 & 19. We’ll show both actual and the “real” change in sales as we factor inflation into the data.

Both reports include the following:

• Total Retail, Restaurants, Auto, Gas Stations and Relevant Retail (removing Restaurants, Auto and Gas)
• Individual Channel Data – This is more detailed in the Monthly reports, and we’ll focus on Pet Relevant Channels.

The data will be presented in detailed charts to facilitate visual comparison between groups/channels. The charts will show 11 separate measurements. To save space they will be displayed in a stacked bar format for the channel charts.

• Current Month change – % & $ vs previous month
• Current Month change – % & $ vs same month last year and vs 2021.
  • Current Month Real change vs last year and vs 2021 – % factoring in inflation
• Current Ytd change – % & $ for this year vs last year, 2021 & 2019.
  • Current Ytd Real change % for this year vs last year and vs 2021 and 2019
• Monthly & Ytd $ & CPIs for this year vs last year and vs 2021 which are targeted by channel will also be shown. (CPI Details are at the end of the report)

First, the April Monthly. All but Gas Stations were down from March and there were 2 actual sales drops – monthly & ytd vs 25 in Auto. There were 9 “real” drops and Gas Stations are still selling less product than in 2019. However, Relevant Retail is all positive again. They’ve been all positive in 23 of the last 25 months. ($ are Not Seasonally Adjusted)

The April Monthly is $0.9B less than the Advance report. Restaurants: -$0.2B; Auto: -$1.2B; Gas Stations: +$0.1B; Relevant Retail: +$0.2B. The drops from Mar were small but expected. A Mar>Apr decrease in Total Retail  has happened in all but 5 years since 1992. However, the -0.8% drop was 54% smaller than the -1.8% avg. There were 2 drops in actual sales – Monthly & Ytd vs 25 for Auto. There were 9 “real” sales drops, 7 in Mar, but none in Dec>Feb. Only Relevant Retail was all positive, down from 2 in Mar & 4 in Feb. Restaurants still have the biggest increases vs 21 & 19 but Relevant Retail stayed at the top of “real” performance vs 2019. However, only 52.7% of their growth is real.

Now, let’s see how some Key Pet Relevant channels did in April in the Stacked Bar Graph Format

Overall– Only 3 of 11 were up from Mar. Vs Apr 25, 11 were actually and 8 “really” up. Vs Apr 21, 7 were up but only 4 were real lifts. Vs 2019, Only Dept Strs & Off/Gift/Souv were actually & really down.

• Building Material Stores – The pandemic focus on home has produced $ growth of 35.9% since 2019. Prices for the group are +24.9% from 21 and +28.7% from 2019, which is impactful. With an ongoing Spring lift, HomCtr/Hdwe Sales vs Mar were +10.6% and +14.4% for Farm. Vs other years, HomCtr/Hdwe are actually up & really down for all but 2019 & vs Apr 21. Farm stores are actually up for all, but their Real $ were down vs 21. Bldg Mat’s 19>26 real growth was 5.6%. avg: 0.8%. HomeCtr/Hdwe: Ytd: 3.4%; Avg 19>26 Growth: 4.1%, Real: 0.4%; Farm: Ytd: +6.7%; Avg: 6.1%, Real: 2.4%
• Food & Drug – Both are essential. Except for the COVID food binge, they tend to have smaller changes in $. Vs Mar: Supermarkets: -0.6%; Drug: -2.0%. In terms of inflation, the Groceries rate is 2.9%, while Drug/Med products started deflating, -0.5%. Drug Stores are positive in all measurements and 68.9% of their 2019>26 growth is real. Supermarkets’ actual $ are up in all comparisons, but they are only “really” up vs 2019. Plus, only 6.6% of their 19>26 increase is real growth. Supermarkets: Ytd: +0.7%; Avg 19>26: +4.4%, Real: +0.3%; Drug Stores: Ytd: +2.3%; Avg: +4.8%, Real: +3.5%.
• Sporting Goods Stores – They also benefited from the pandemic in that consumers turned to self-entertainment, especially sports & outdoor activities. Sales are -3.8% from Mar and they are actually & really negative vs 21. Prices stopped deflating vs last year. Deflation started in April 23 and was a big change from +1.1% in 22>23 & +7.9% in 21>22. This caused 67.5% of their 42% lift since 2019 to be real. Ytd: 6.6%; Avg 19>26: +5.1%; Real: +3.6%
• Gen Mdse Stores – $ vs Mar: SupCtr/Club; -3.4%; $ Strs: -1.6%; Dept Strs: +5.5%. All but 1 YOY comparison were up for $ Strs & SupCtr/Club. Dept Stores are negative for all but vs Mar 25 & actual Ytd vs 21. Their Actual sales are even -30.4% from 19 (real:-38.2%). The other channels have an average of 41.9% in real growth. SupCtr/Club: Ytd: +2.6%; Avg 19>26: 4.8%, Real: 2.1%; $/Value Strs: Ytd: +4.9%; Avg: +5.2%, Real: +2.5%; Dept. Strs: Ytd: -1.9%; Avg: -5.0%, Real: -6.6%.
• Office, Gift & Souvenir Stores– Sales are -2.3% from Mar. They are actually/really up vs Apr 25 & actually up Ytd 25 & 21. All others are down. Their recovery restarted Jun/Jul 25, but took off in Oct, slowed Nov, grew Dec, slowed Jan>Mar, then grew in Apr because their Mar>Apr drop was 50% of avg. Ytd: +0.7%;Avg Growth Rate: -0.4%, Real: -2.1%
• Internet/Mail Order – Sales are -0.4% from Mar but still set an Apr record. All YOY measurements are positive, but their YOY growth, +10.4%, is only 73.2% of their average since 2019. However, 81.4% of their 153.7% growth since 2019 is real. Ytd: +10.4%; Avg Growth: +14.2%, Real: +12.3%. As expected, they are by far the growth leader since 2019.
• A/O Miscellaneous – Pet Stores are 22>24% of total $. In May 2020 they began recovery which reached $100B for the 1^st time in 21. In 22 their $ dipped in Jan, Jul, Sep>Nov, rose Dec, fell Jan>Feb 23, grew Mar>May, fell Jun>Aug, rose Sep>Nov, fell Dec>Jan 24, grew Feb>May, fell Jun>Sep, grew Oct, fell Nov, rose Dec, fell Jan>Feb, grew Mar>May, fell Jun>Sep, rose Oct, fell Nov, rose Dec, fell Jan, rose Feb/Mar, fell Apr. All comparisons are positive, and they are #2 in the increase vs 19 & vs 21. Also, 77% of their 96% growth since 2019 is real. Ytd: +12.1%; Avg 19>26: 10.1%, Real: +8.3%

Apr had its usual drop vs Mar, but the Rel Retl drop was 35% less than avg. 8 of 11 small channels were down. The YOY lift vs 25 was 5% below avg for Total, but 7% above avg for Relevant Retl. 4 big groups & 11 smaller channels had lifts. Prices are only deflating in Auto & Drug, but cumulative inflation has an impact, as only 4 of 11 channels were really up vs Apr 21. The Recovery is slow. In May, the commodities CPI rose from 4.6% to 5.5%. Let’s see if it impacts Retail.

All were up from Apr. An Apr>May Total Retail lift has happened in every year since 1992. The 5.0% lift is 18% less than the 6.1% avg. There were no YOY $ drops, 2 less than Apr. All Big Groups were up vs 25 and the Total Retail lift of 5.2% vs May 25 was 11.3% above their +4.7% 92>25 avg. However, the Relevant Retail 4.6% increase vs May 25 was -1.8% below their +4.7% avg. Inflation is a complex factor. The CPI for all commodities rose to 5.5% from 4.6% in Apr and it is still +20.3% vs 21. There is some bad “real” news. In Jan/Feb, no “real” measurement was down. In Mar there were 7, in Apr 9 & in May 10. Plus, Gas Stations are now selling less Gas than in all comparison yrs. Also, again only 1 Big Group is all positive. In Dec>Feb there were 4. Positive Note: Relevant Retail has now been all positive in 24 of the last 26 months.

Overall Inflation Reality– The Total Retail CPI rose to 5.5% but the $ lift vs 25 was 11.3% above avg. The Restaurant CPI slowed to +3.5% but their $ lift was 58.0% below avg. The Gas CPI rose from 29.1% to +40.9%. They are in true turmoil. Auto inflation is  -0.6% vs 25 but +10.3% vs 21. Sales were +1.8% vs 25. Their avg change is +4.4%. Inflation slowed to 2.5% for Relevant Retail but their lift was 1.8% below avg. They are again all positive. Progress is slow & complex in 26.

Total Retail – Since Jun 20, every month but Apr 23, Jun 24 & Feb 25 has set a monthly $ record. In 23>26, Sales got on a roller coaster. Up Oct>Dec, down Jan 24, up Feb>Mar, down Apr, up May, down Jun, up Jul>Aug, down Sep, up Oct>Dec, down Jan>Feb 25, up Mar, down Apr, up May, down Jun, up Jul>Aug, down Sep, up Oct, down Nov, up Dec, down Jan & Feb, up Mar, down Apr, up May. Prices are 5.5% and YOY $ are +5.2%, 11.3% above avg. 41% of 19>26 growth is real. The CPI rose due to Gasoline, but cumulative inflation is impacting sales. Growth: 25>26: 4.3%;Avg 19>26: +6.1%, Real: +2.8%

Restaurants – They were hit hard by the pandemic and didn’t begin recovery until Mar 21. However, they have had strong growth since then, exceeding $1T for the 1^st time in 23. May $ are +2.4% vs 25 and they have the biggest lifts vs 21 & 19. Inflation slowed to 3.5% vs last year, but it is +29.6% vs 21 and +35.7% vs 19. Their 2.4% YOY lift is 58.0% below their +5.7% 92>25 avg. In Mar they stopped being all positive and in May just 32.4% of their 63.6% growth since 2019 is real. They are tied for 3rd in performance. Recovery started late but inflation started early. Growth: 3.4%; Avg 19>26: +7.3%, Real: +2.7%. They just account for 13.7% of Total Retail $, but their strong growth has helped Total Retail.

Auto (Motor Vehicle/Parts Dealers) – They overcame the stay-at-home attitude with deals & advertising. They finished 2020 up 1% vs 2019 and hit a record $1.48T in 2021 but much was due to high prices. In 22, sales got on a rollercoaster. Inflation started to drop mid-year, but it caused 4 down months in $. Their YE real 22 sales numbers were even worse, -8.2% vs 21 and -8.9% vs 19. 23 began a sales rollercoaster but the $ hit a record, $1.595T. $ fell Jan 24, grew Feb/Mar, fell Apr, grew May, fell June, grew Jul/Aug, fell Sep, grew Oct, fell Nov, grew Dec, fell Jan/Feb 25, grew Mar, fell Apr>Jun, rose Jul/Aug, fell Sep, rose Oct, fell Nov, rose Dec, fell Jan, rose Feb, fell Mar/Apr, rose May. May $ were +1.8% vs 25. Avg: 4.4%. They are not all positive and just 32% of 19>26 growth is real. Growth: 0.3%; Avg 19>26: +4.9%, Real: +1.7%

Gas Stations – Gas Stations were hit hard by “stay at home”. They started recovery in Mar 21, and inflation began. Sales got on a rollercoaster in 22 but set a record, $583B. Inflation started to slow in Aug and prices slightly deflated in Dec & Feb 23, then strongly fell in Mar>Jul to -20.2%. In Sep they were +2.7% but began deflating to -4.2% in Feb 24. In Mar>May $ grew, fell Jun, rose July, fell Aug/Sep, rose Oct, fell Nov>Feb 25, rose Mar>May, fell Jun, rose Jul, fell Aug>Oct, up Nov, fell Dec/Jan, skyrocketed Feb>May. May $ vs 25: +25.4% (4.4% avg). No $ downs, but all real $ are down. Growth: +12.9%; Avg 19>26:+4.6%, Real: -0.5%. They show that strong, current inflation can be “really” negative.

Relevant Retail – Less Auto, Gas and Restaurants– They account for ≈60% of Total Retail $ in a variety of channels. Their only down month until Feb 25 was Apr 20, and they led the way in Retail’s recovery. Sales got on a roller coaster in 22, but all months set new records with Dec reaching a new all-time high, $481B, and an annual record of $4.81T. In 23, the roller coaster continued. A Dec lift set a monthly record of $494.7B & an annual record of $4.997T. The roller coaster restarted in 24. $ rose Oct>Jan 25, fell Feb, rose Mar>May, fell Jun, rose Jul, fell Aug/Sep, rose Oct>Dec, fell Jan>Feb 26, rose Mar, fell Apr, rose May. The May 4.6% YOY lift is 1.8% below their 92>25 avg of +4.7%. They are all positive again and 52% of their 54% 19>26 growth is real, again #1 in performance. Growth: 4.9%; Avg 19>26: +6.3%, Real: +3.6%. In 2024 their inflation rate fell from 3.2% to 0.1%. It rose in 25 to 1.8% in Sep, slowed to 1.5% in Oct>Nov, rose to 2.0% in Dec>Jan, 2.3% in Mar & 2.7% in Apr, fell to 2.5% in May. YOY Inflation is low, but its cumulative impact can slow growth.

As expected, May sales grew vs Apr. Total Retl was +5.0%, 18% below avg; Relevant Retl was +5.1%, 16% below avg. In May, no actual comparison was negative. Mar had 1 & Dec>Feb & Apr, 2. There were 0 real drops in Dec>Feb. In Mar, there were 7. Apr had 9 & May, 10. In Dec, all were up vs last year but only Rel. Retl’s lift was above avg. In Jan, 3 lifts, all below avg. In Feb, 4 lifts, all below avg. In Mar/Apr, 4 lifts, 2 above avg. In May 5 lifts, 2 above avg. In Dec>Feb, 4 big groups were all positive. In Mar, 2. In Apr/May, 1. Relevant Retail has now been all positive in 24 of 26 months. YOY inflation is relatively low for all but Gasoline. However, cumulative inflation can also affect sales. Progress is slow.

Here’s a more detailed look at May by Key Channels in the Stacked Bar Graph Format

• Relevant Retail: Ytd Growth: +4.9%; Avg 19>26: +6.3%; Real: 3.6%. % Real Growth: 52.0%. All 11 were up from Apr. Vs May 25: 10 were up, 7 Real. Vs May 21: 9 were up; 7 Real. Vs 19: Dept Stores were down & “real” Furniture Stores.
• All Department Stores – This group was struggling before the pandemic hit them hard. They began recovery in March 21. Sales are +8.3% from Apr, but all YOY measurements except actual vs May 25 are negative. Their 1.7% May YOY lift is much better than their -4.3% avg. Ytd Growth: -1.1%; Avg 19>26: -4.9%; Real: -6.6%. % Real growth: None
• Club/SuprCtr/$- They fueled a big part of the recovery because they focus on value which has broad consumer appeal. $ales are +9.4% from Apr and they are now up in all comparisons. Their 3.8% YOY May lift is -53.4% below their 92>25 avg of +8.2%. Ytd Growth: 3.1%; Avg 19>26: +4.9%; Real: 2.2%. % Real Growth: 41.5%
• Grocery- They depend on frequent purchases, so their changes are usually less radical. $ales are +6.2% from Apr. They are actually up for all but really down for all but vs 2019. Cumulative inflation has hit them hard. Their +1.8% YOY May lift is 41.6% below their +3.1% avg. Ytd Growth: 1.0%; Avg 19>26: +4.3%; Real: 0.2%. % Real Growth: 4.7%
• Health/Drug Stores – Many stores are essential, but consumers visit less frequently than Grocery stores. $ are +1.1% from Apr and positive in all YOY comparisons. Inflation has been relatively low, so it is surprising that their +0.9% YOY lift vs May 25 is 82.5% below avg. Ytd Growth: 2.0%; Avg 19>26: +4.5%; Real: 3.2%. % Real Growth: 68.5%
• Clothing and Accessories – Clothes mattered less if you stayed home. That changed in March 2021 with strong growth through 2022. Sales are +11.8% from Apr and positive in all YOY measurements. $ales are +3.6% vs May 25, 5.0% more than their 3.4% avg. Ytd Growth: 5.7%; Avg 19>26: +3.5%; Real: 2.2%. % Real Growth: 60.7%.
• Home Furnishings – In mid-2020 consumers’ focus turned to their homes and furniture became a priority. Inflation is down to 1.9% in May. $ are +5.0% from Apr, but they are only actually up vs 2019. All real sales are down. YOY vs May 25, they are -3.3%, far below their 3.2% avg lift. Ytd Growth: -3.1%; Avg 19>26:+2.1%; Real: -0.2%. % Real Growth: None
• Electronic/Appliances – They have had many issues. $ fell in Apr>May of 2020 and didn’t reach 2019 levels until March 21. $ are +5.8% from Apr and up in all comparisons. Strong deflation made real sales very high. Sales are +5.9% vs May 25, 1.5 times above the 2.4% avg. Ytd Growth: 6.3%; Avg 19>26: 1.2%; Real: 4.5%. % Real Growth: 100+%
• Bldg Matl, Farm, Garden, Hdwe – They benefited from the consumers’ focus on home. In 22 the lift slowed as inflation grew to double digits. Prices rose again in Apr>Sep 25, dropped Oct/Nov, rose Dec/Jan to 5.6%, fell Feb to 4.8%, rose Mar to 6.0%, fell Apr/May to 3.7%. $ are +2.0% from Apr and are actually up & really down for all but “real” 2019. $ vs May 25 were +1.8%, 58% below their 4.2% Avg. Ytd Growth: 3.4%; Avg 19>26: 4.3%; Real: 0.6%. % Real Growth: 12.4%
• Sporting Goods, Hobby and Book Stores – Consumers turned their attention to recreation and Sporting Goods stores sales took off. Book & Hobby Stores recovered more slowly. They have been on a sales roller coaster since June 24 and $ are +9.7% from Apr. All YOY comparisons are now positive. YOY Sales vs May 25 are +10.8%, 2.4 times more than their 3.2% avg. Ytd Growth: +9.3%; Avg 19>26: +4.7%; Real: 3.8%. % Real Growth: 79.0%.
• All Miscellaneous Stores – Pet Stores have been a key part of the strong and growing recovery of this group. They finished 2020 at +0.9% but sales took off in March 21 and have continued to grow. Sales are +11.8% vs Apr and positive in all comparisons. They are 2^nd in the % increase vs 19 & vs 21. Plus, their 6.5% YOY May lift is 46.7% more than their 92>25 avg of +4.45%. Ytd Growth: +10.1%; Avg 19>26: +7.5%; Real: 5.7%. % Real Growth: 71.8%.
• NonStore Retailers – 90% of their $ comes from Internet/Mail Order/TV. The pandemic accelerated online spending. They ended 2020 +21.4%. The growth continued in 2021 as sales exceeded $100B for the 1^st time and they broke the $1 Trillion barrier. $ are +1.8% from Apr, but their YOY lift of 9.9% is 3.9% below the 10.3% avg. However, they are positive in all comparisons. Ytd Growth: 10.0%; Avg 19>26: +13.1%; Real: 11.1%. % Real Growth: 80.0%.

Recap – Driven by Relevant Retail, the Pandemic recovery was widespread by Y/E 21. In 22, we were hit with the strongest inflation in 40 years. Inflation has slowed considerably from its Jun 22 peak, but only 2 smaller channels are now deflating. Deflation helps, but cumulative inflation can still have a negative impact – slowed YOY growth and even sales drops. As expected, $ grew from Apr for all 11 small channels, but only 4 of the lifts were above avg. The biggest concern is still YOY drops and smaller lifts. Relevant Retail’s 4.6% lift vs May 25 was 1.8% below avg. 10 channels had a YOY lift vs 25, 1 more than Apr. 5 of the lifts were above avg, the same as Apr. There are multiple factors slowing growth, but the major one is high prices from current & cumulative inflation. Feb is usually the worst retail month. May is the 3^rd best & the Apr>May lift is the 3rd biggest. Both Total & Relevant Retail had record monthly sales for Dec>May 26. The May Yoy lift was 11.3% above avg for Total but -1.8% below avg for Relevant. Like Apr, 6 of 11 channels (only 4 in Mar) had a below avg lift or a drop vs 25. The situation is similar to Apr, but worse than Mar. We’ll see what happens in June.

Here are the Apr/May inflation rates for the CPIs used to calculate the impact of inflation on retail groups and channels. This includes special aggregate CPIs created with the instruction and guidance of the US BLS. I also researched data from the last Economic Census to review the share of sales by product category for the various channels to help in selecting what expenditures to include in specific aggregates. Of course, none of these specially created aggregates are 100% accurate but they are much closer than the overall CPI or available aggregates. The data includes the CPI changes vs 21 to show cumulative inflation.

Monthly YOY CPI changes of 0.2% or more are highlighted. (Green = lower; Pink = higher)

Here are some answers to some obvious questions. Note: Gasoline is by far the biggest driver in the National CPI lift.

• Why is the group for Nonstore different from the Internet?
  • Non-store is not all internet. It also includes Fuel Oil Dealers, the non-motor fuel Energy Commodity.
• Why is there no Food at home included in Nonstore or Internet?
  • Online Grocery purchasing is becoming popular, but almost all is from companies whose major business is brick ‘n mortar. These online sales are recorded under their primary channel.
• 5 Channels have the same CPI aggregate but represent a variety of business types.
  • They also have a wide range of product types. Rather than try to build aggregates of a multitude of small expenditure categories, it seemed better to eliminate the biggest, influential groups that they don’t sell. This method is not perfect, but it is certainly closer than any existing aggregate.
• Why are Grocery and Supermarkets only tied to the Grocery CPI?
  • According to the Economic Census, 76% of their sales comes from Grocery products. Grocery Products are the driver. The balance of their sales comes from a collection of a multitude of categories.
• What about Drug/Health Stores only being tied to Medical Commodities.
  • An answer similar to the one for Grocery/Supermarkets. However, in this case Medical Commodities account for over 80% of these stores’ total sales.
• Why do SuperCtrs/Clubs and $ Stores have the same CPI?
  • While the Big Stores sell much more fresh groceries, Groceries account for ¼ of $ Store sales. Both Channels generally offer most of the same product categories, but the actual product mix is different.