Petflation 2026 – January Update: Total Pet Prices Reach a Record High

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It’s time to get started with 2026 inflation. The Consumer Price Index peaked back in June 2022 at 9.1% then began to slow until it turned up in Jul/Aug 2023. Prices fell in Oct>Dec 23, then turned up Jan>Oct 24 but fell in Nov. However, they rose 10 straight months to a record high in Sep 25, fell Oct>Dec, then rose in Jan (New Record). The CPI vs last year slowed to +2.4% from +2.7% because of a new base year. Grocery prices rose 0.6% from Dec to a new record but their YOY inflation also fell to 2.1% from 2.4%. Even minor price changes can affect consumer pet spending, especially in the discretionary pet segments, so we will continue to publish monthly reports to track petflation as it evolves in the market.

Petflation was +4.1% in Dec 21 while the overall CPI was +7.0%. The gap narrowed as Petflation accelerated. It was 96.7% of the national rate in June 22. National inflation has slowed considerably, but Petflation generally increased until June 23. It passed the CPI in July 22, fell below it from Apr>Jul 24. It passed the CPI in Aug, fell below in Sep>Oct, rose above in Nov, fell below in Dec>Aug, then passed it in Sep>Oct & Dec>Jan. All reports will include:

  • A rolling 24 month tracking of the CPI for all pet segments and the national CPI. The base number will be pre-pandemic December 2019 in this and future reports, which will facilitate comparisons.
  • Monthly comparisons of 26 vs 25 which will include Pet Segments and relevant Human spending categories. Plus
    1. CPI change from the previous month.
    2. Inflation changes for recent years (24>25, 23>24, 22>23, 21>22, 20>21, 19>20, 18>19)
    3. Total Inflation for the current month in 2026 vs 2019 and vs 2021 to see the full inflation surge.
    4. Average annual Year Over Year inflation rate from 2019 to 2026
  • YTD comparisons (Note: January = YTD, so there will be no separate YTD report this month.)
    1. YTD numbers for the monthly comparisons #2>4 above

In our first graph we will track the monthly change in prices for the 24 months from Jan 24 to Jan 26. We will use December 2019 as a base number so we can track the progress from pre-pandemic times through an eventual recovery. This chart is designed to give you a visual image of the flow of pricing. You can see the similarities and differences in segment patterns and compare them to the overall U.S. CPI. The year-end numbers from 12 and 24 months earlier are included. We also included and highlighted (pink) the cumulative price peak for each segment. In Jan, Pet prices were up 0.3% from Dec. Food (+0.8%), Vet (+0.5%) & Services (+0.6%) were up while Supplies (-1.0%) were down significantly.

In Jan 24, the CPI was +20.0% and Pet was +22.4%. The Services segments inflated after mid-20, while Product inflation stayed low until late 21. In 22, Food prices grew but the others had mixed patterns until July 22, when all rose. In Aug>Oct Petflation took off. In Nov>Dec, Services & Food inflated while Vet & Supplies prices stabilized. In Jan>Apr 23, prices grew every month for all segments except for 1 Supplies dip. In May Products prices grew while Services slowed. In Jun/Jul this reversed. In Aug all but Services fell. In Sep/Oct this flipped. In Nov, all but Food & Vet fell. In Dec, Supp. & Vet  drove prices up. In Jan>Mar 24 Pet prices grew. In April, prices in all but Vet fell. In May, all but Food grew. In June, Products drove a lift. In July, all but Services fell. In Aug, Food drove a drop. In Sep, Products fueled a drop. In Nov all were up. Prices dropped in Mar & Oct>Nov 25, but all set records in Dec and/or Jan.

  • U.S. CPI – The inflation rate was below 2% through 2020. It turned up in January 21 and continued to grow until flattening out in Jul>Dec 22. Prices rose Jan>Sep 23, fell Oct>Dec, rose Jan>Oct 24, fell Nov, rose Dec>Sep 25, fell Nov>Dec, but hit a record high in Jan. 26% of the lift since Dec 19 happened from Jan>Jun 22 – 8.2% of the time.
  • Pet Food – Prices were at the Dec 19 level Apr 20>Sep 21. They grew & peaked May 23, then got on a roller coaster. Jan/Feb 25 up, Mar>May down, Jun/Jul up, Aug down, Sep↔, Oct/Nov down, Dec/Jan up. 92% of the lift was in 22/23.
  • Pet Supplies – Supplies prices were high in Dec 19 due to tariffs. They had a deflated roller coaster ride until mid-21 when they returned to Dec 19 prices & stayed there until 22. They turned up in Jan (record). They plateaued Feb>May, grew in June, flattened in July, then turned up in Aug>Oct to a new record. Prices stabilized Nov>Dec, grew Jan>Feb 23. fell in Mar, but the roller coaster went on. Dec>Feb up , Mar/Apr down, May/Jun up , July down , Aug up, Sep/Oct down , Nov/Dec up , Jan>Feb 25 down,  Mar>May up , Jun down, Jul up , Aug down , Sep up , Oct>Nov down , Dec up (record), Jan down.
  • Pet Services– Inflation is usually 2+%. Perhaps due to closures, prices increased at a lower rate in 2020. In 2021 consumer demand increased but with fewer outlets. Inflation grew in 21 with the biggest lift in Jan>Apr. Inflation was strong in 22 but prices got on a roller coaster. They turned up Jul>Apr 23, fell May. rose Jun>Aug, fell Sep>Dec, rose Jan>Mar 24, fell Apr, rose May, fell Jun, rose Jul>Nov, fell Dec>Mar 25, rose Apr>Aug, fell Sep, rose Oct>Jan 26 (record).
  • Veterinary – Inflation has been consistent. Prices turned up in Mar 20 and grew through 21. A surge began in Dec 21 which put them above the overall CPI. In May 22 prices fell and stabilized in June and they fell below the CPI. However, they rose again & have been above the CPI since July 22. In 23>25 prices grew Jan>May, level Jun/Jul, fell Aug, grew Sep>Dec, fell Jan, grew Feb>May, fell Jun>Jul, grew Aug 24>Sep 25, fell Oct>Nov, grew Dec/Jan.
  • Total Pet – Petflation is a sum of the segments. In Dec 21 the price surge began. In Mar>Jun 22 the segments had ups & downs, but Petflation grew Jul>Nov, slowed Dec, grew Jan>May 23, fell Jun>Aug, grew Sep/Oct, fell In December prices grew through Mar 24 to a record high. Prices fell in April, rose May>Jun, fell Jul>Sep, rose Oct>Nov, fell Dec, rose Jan>Feb 25, fell Mar, grew Apr>Jul, fell Aug, rose Sep, fell Oct>Nov, rose Dec/Jan (record)

Next, we’ll turn our attention to the Year Over Year inflation rate change for January and compare it to last month, last year and to previous years. We will also show total inflation from 21>26 & 19>26. Petflation rose from 2.5% to 3.5% in Sep, fell to 2.6% in Nov, then rose to 3.5% in Dec. In Jan it is 3.4% and 41.7% above the National rate. The chart will allow you to compare the inflation rates of 25>26 to 24>25 and other years but also see how much of the total inflation since 2019 came from the current surge. We’ve included some human categories to put the pet numbers into perspective

Overall, prices were up 0.4% from December and were +2.4% vs Jan 25, down from +2.7% last month. Grocery prices rose 0.6% but inflation fell to +2.1% from 2.4%. Only Pet Supplies had a price decrease from last month. In Dec only the National CPI was down. In Nov there were 6 drops – a big change. The national YOY monthly CPI rate of 2.4% is down 20% from 24>25 and 68% less than 21>22. However, the 25>26 rate is above 24>25 for all but the CPI and Pet Supplies. In our 2021>2025 measurement you also can see that over 80% of the cumulative inflation since 2019 has occurred in all but 3 segments, Haircuts, Medical & Veterinary Services. Except for Pet Services, where prices have surged Service Segments have had higher inflation rates so there was a smaller pricing lift in the recent surge. Pet Products have a very different pattern. The 21>26 inflation surge provided 94% of their overall inflation since 2019. This happened because Pet Products prices in 2021 were still recovering from a deflationary period. Services expenditures account for 64.0% of the National CPI so they are very influential. Their current CPI is +3.2% while the CPI for Commodities is 1.0%. This clearly shows that Services are driving almost all of the current 2.4% inflation. The situation in Pet is even worse. Petflation: 3.4%. The CPI for the 2 Service Segments is 6.0%. The Pet Products CPI is 1.3%.

  • U.S. CPI– Prices are +0.4% from Dec. The YOY increase is 2.4%, down from 2.7%. It peaked at +9.1% back in June 2022. The targeted inflation rate is <2% so we are now 20+% higher than the target. The January increase follows stability in Dec and 2 drops in Oct & Nov. The current rate is below 24>25 but the 21>26 rate is +24.3%, 83.2% of the total inflation since 2019. The Inflation surge hadn’t started in January 2021, +1.4%
  • Pet Food– Prices are +0.8% vs Dec. and +1.4 vs Jan 25, up from -1.1%. They are still 33% below the Food at Home inflation rate of +2.1%. Remember that the YOY Pet Food CPI has deflated in 15 of the last 23 months. The 2021>2026 inflation surge has generated 90.3% of the 26.9% inflation since 2019. Inflation began for Pet Food in June 2021, +0.9%, after 12 straight deflationary months.
  • Food at Home – Prices are up +0.6% from Dec, but the YOY increase fell from 2.4% to 2.1%. This is radically lower than Jul>Sep 2022 when it exceeded 13%. The 31.5% Inflation for this category since 2019 is 8% more than the national CPI but is only in 5th place behind 4 Services expenditures and Total Pet. 82% of the inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>26. This is slightly lower than the CPI, but we should note that Grocery prices began inflating in 2020>21 then the rate accelerated. It appears that the pandemic supply chain issues in Food which contributed to higher prices started early and foreshadowed problems in other categories and the overall CPI tsunami.
  • Pets & Supplies– Prices were -1.0% from December and YOY inflation fell to +0.2% from 1.0%. They still have the lowest rate vs 2019. Prices were deflated for much of 20>21. As a result, the 2021>26 inflation surge accounted for 112% of the total price increase since 2019. Prices set a record in Oct 22 then deflated. 3 lifts pushed them to a record high in Feb 23. Prices fell in Mar & the roller coaster continued into 25. They fell Jan/Feb 25, rose Mar>May, fell Jun, rose Jul, fell Aug, rose Sep, fell Oct>Nov, rose Dec (record), then fell in Jan.
  • Veterinary Services– Prices are +0.5% from Dec and +7.4% from 2025, up from 7.1%. They remain #1 in inflation vs last year & still the leader in the increase since 2019 with +56.2% and since 21, +42.8%. For Veterinary, relatively high annual inflation is the norm. However, the rate has increased during the current surge, especially since 23. They have the highest rate in 26, but only 76.0% of the cumulative inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>26.
  • Medical Services – Prices turned sharply up at the start of the pandemic but then inflation slowed and fell to a low rate in 20>21. Prices rose +0.6% from Dec and inflation vs last year rose to +3.9% from +3.5%. Medical Services are not a big part of the current surge as only 59.2% of the 22.8%, 2019>26 increase happened from 21>26.
  • Pet Services – Inflation slowed in 20 but grew in 21. In 24 prices surged , especially in Jul>Nov. Prices fell Dec>Mar 25 to 3.9%. Apr grew, May fell, June rose, Jul rose to 6.3%. Inflation fell to 5.8% in Aug & to 4.2% in Nov. In Dec>Jan 26 it rose to 5.7%. They are #2 vs 25, 21 & 19. 84% of their 19>25 inflation is from 21>26. In Dec 23, it was 49%.
  • Haircuts/Other Personal Services – Prices are +0.6% from Dec and +5.0% from Jan 25. 18 of the last 25 months have been 4.0+%. Inflation has been pretty consistent. 69.3% of the 19>26 inflation happened 21>26.
  • Total Pet– Petflation slowed to 3.4% from 3.5%. All segments but Supplies had a higher rate. It is 70% above the 24>25 rate and 42% above the U.S. CPI. Plus, it is 10% above the 3.1% average January rate since 1997. Jan prices rose 0.3%, driven by all but Supplies. The Dec>Jan increase was slightly below the 0.4% 97>25 average change but expected. A drop has only occurred in 2 of the last 28 years. The big factor in the CPI drop was that prices rose 0.4.4% in Dec>Jan 25. In January, the recovery definitely slowed.

The Petflation recovery paused in Aug 24, came back Sep>Oct, paused in Nov, resumed in Dec>Jan, paused in Feb, restarted in Mar and paused Apr>Sep. It improved Oct/Nov but paused in Dec/Jan. We tend to focus on the monthly, YOY inflation in the current year and ignore the fact that inflation is cumulative. Pet prices are 27.6% above 2021 and 33.0% higher than 2019. Those are big lifts. In fact, January prices are within 1% of the record for Pet Supplies, while the prices for the National CPI, Total Pet and all other pet segments reached record levels. (Note: Jan Pet Food prices are still 0.06% below May 2023 but with rounding….) Only Supplies prices (+12.7%) are less than 26.9% higher than 2019. Since price/value is the biggest driver in consumer spending, inflation will affect the Pet Industry. Services will be the least impacted as it is driven by high income CUs. Veterinary will continue to see a reduction in visit frequency. The product segments will see a more complex reaction. Supplies are more discretionary so we will likely see a reduction in purchase frequency. In Pet Food, the most needed segment, some Pet Parents may even downgrade their Pet Food. However, the biggest impact in both product segments will be a strong movement to online purchasing and private label. We saw proof of this at both GPE 25 & SZ 25 as a huge # of exhibitors offer OEM services. At GPE 26, this trend will continue. Strong, cumulative inflation has a widespread impact.