Information by segment as defined by USBLS

2024 U.S. PET SUPPLIES SPENDING $23.91B…Up $0.89B

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Total Pet spending rose to $118.87B in 2024, up $1.27B (+1.1%) from 2023. After a record $8.65B (+57%) increase in 2021 the Supplies segment fell in 22. Recovery began in 23 and continued in 24, up $0.89B (+3.9%) to $23.91B. (Note: All numbers in this report come from or are calculated by using data from the US BLS Consumer Expenditure Surveys)

Supplies Spending fell -$4.6B 2018>20 due to Tarifflation and COVID. In 2021, Pet Parents caught up as spending rose a record $8.65B. In 2022, it plateaued in the 1st half then fell sharply in the 2nd half. 2023 had a 1st half lift & a 2nd half drop. 2024 had a small increase. We’ll drill down into the data to determine what/who drove the 23>24 3.9% lift in Spending.

In 2024, the average household spent $176.15 on Supplies, up 3.0% from $171.08 in 2023. (Note: A 2024 Pet CU (68%) Spent $259.04) The 3.0% CU lift doesn’t exactly match the 3.9% total $ increase. Here are the specific details:

  • 0.9% more CU’s
  • Spent 1.5% less $
  • 4.6% more often

Let’s start with a visual overview. The chart below shows recent Supplies spending history.

Since the great recession, spending in the Supplies segment has been driven by price. Although many supplies are needed by Pet Parents, when they are bought and how much you spend is often discretionary. When prices fall, consumers are more likely to buy more. When they go up, consumers spend less and/or buy less frequently.

2014 was the third consecutive year of deflation in Supplies as prices reached a level not seen since 2007. Consumers responded with a spending increase of over $2B. Prices stabilized and then moved up in 2015.

In 2015 we saw how the discretionary aspect of the Supplies segment can impact spending in another way. Consumers spent $5.4B for a food upgrade and cut back on Supplies – swapping $. Consumers spent 4.1% less, but they bought 10% less often. That drop in purchase frequency drove $1.6B (78%) of the $2.1B decrease in Supplies spending.

In 2016, supplies’ prices flattened out and consumers value shopped for their upgraded food. Supplies spending stabilized and began to increase in the second half. In 2017 supplies prices deflated, reaching a new post-recession low. The consumers responded with a $2.74B increase in Supplies spending that was widespread across demographic segments. An important factor in the lift was an increase in purchase frequency which was within 5% of the 2014 rate.

In 2018 prices started to move up in April and rapidly increased later in the year due to the impact of new tariffs. By December, Supplies prices were 3.3% higher than a year ago. This explains the initial growth and pull back in spending.

In 2019 we saw the full impact of the tariffs. Prices continued to increase. By yearend they were up 5.7% from the Spring of 2018 and spending plummeted -$2.98B. The major factor in the drop was a 13.1% decrease in purchasing frequency.

2020 brought the pandemic. Prices deflated but with retail restrictions and the consumers’ focus on needed items, both the amount spent and frequency of purchase of Supplies fell.

In 2021 the recovery began with a record lift. Pet parents bought all the supplies that they had been putting off for 2 years. 2021 spending ended up where it was headed in 2018 before being “derailed” by outside influences. In 2022 inflation took off and spending fell -$1.87B. In 2023 spending increased, primarily because of inflation which slowed in the 2nd half. In 2024 inflation slowed to 0.9% from 2.6% in 2023. Although YOY inflation slowed significantly, retail prices were at a record high. This was a factor in the small 3.9% lift.

That gives us an overview of the recent spending history. Now let’s look at some specifics regarding the “who” behind the 2024 lift. First, we’ll look at spending by income level, the most influential demographic in Pet Spending.

National: $176.15 per CU (+3.0%) – $23.91B – Up $0.89B (+3.9%).

$ for the $30>70K group were unchanged but only <$30K spent less. The 50/50 $ divide moved up to $120K from $117K.

  • <$30K (20.1% of CUs)- $70.75 per CU (+3.5%); $1.93B– Down $0.03B (-1.4%). This group is very price sensitive, but they still need Supplies. Their Total Supplies $ only fell because they have 4.8% fewer CUs.
  • $30K>70K (27.6% of CUs)- $119.61 /CU (+1.5%); $4.48B – No Chg $0.00 (0.0%). This lower income group matches the spending pattern of the $150K+ group. 2019 Tarifflation and 2022 inflation had big impacts. 23>24 $ were unchanged. $30>50K were down, but $50>70K was up. <2019 they were the leader in Supplies $. Now, they’re 3rd.
  • $70>$100K (14.4% of CUs) – $179.76 per CU (-0.2%); $52B – Up $0.10B (+3.0%). Lift due to 3.3% more CUs. Consistent spending until 2020 hit them hard. They rebounded strong in 2021 and spending grew slightly in 22>24.
  • $100K>$150K (16.3% of CUs) – $231.93 /CU (+8.0%); $5.13B – Up $0.32B (+6.6%). They had the 2nd biggest COVID drop and the 2nd biggest recovery. In 22, they had a 14.0% lift. In 23 their $ fell 3% but they came back +6.6% in 24.
  • $150K> (21.7% of CUs) – $301.53 per CU (-4.1%); $8.86B – Up $0.50B (+6.0%). This highest income group often has the biggest drops and lifts. In 23 they provided 93% of the Supplies lift. This came from 12.3% more CUs. In 24, the situation was similar. 10.5% more CUs spent 4.1% less but provided 56% of the Supplies increase.

With high prices, income matters. Only $70K> spent more but 92.1% of the overall lift came from $100K>.

Now, we’ll look at spending by Age Group.

National: $176.15 per CU (+3.0%) – $23.91B – Up $0.89B (+3.9%)

In 2024 the age group spending rollercoaster got simpler. Under 35: ↓; 35>44: ↑; 45>54: ↓; Over 55: ↑

  • 45>54 (16.3% of CUs) $238.59 per CU (+0.3%); $5.29B – Down $0.12B (-2.2%). From 2007>18 & in 23/24 this highest income group was the leader in Supplies $. They had a pandemic drop but strong growth in 21>23. The lift ended in 2024 as 2.4% less CU’s spent 11.5% less, 13.4% more often. However, they stayed #1 in $.
  • 35>44 (17.9% of CUs) $214.02/ CU (+13.1%) $5.20B – ↑$0.73B (+16.3%) They are #2 in income & expenditures. Inflation drove their $ down in 2019 but COVID had little impact. Spending took off in 21, fell in 22, then grew slightly in 23 & strongly in 24 as 2.8% more CUs spent 2.6% more $, 10.3% more often. They are still #2 in $.
  • 55>64 (17.6% of CUs) $197.62 /CU (+7.8%); $4.73B – Up $0.34B (+7.8%). Tarriflation caused a spending drop in 2019. Spending fell in 2020 as they binge bought pet food. They had a strong recovery in 21. Growth slowed in 22. $ fell in 23 but rose in 24 as 0.1% less CUs spent 13.4% more on Supplies, 4.9% less often. They stayed #3.
  • 65>74 (16.6% of CUs) $151.90 per CU (+4.5%); $3.43B – Up $0.29B (+9.4%). This older group is very price sensitive so rising prices caused them to cut back on spending in 2019. Like the 25>34 yr-olds, they also increased spending in 2020 and spending soared in 2021. However, unlike the 25>34 yr-olds and despite high prices, their spending grew in 22>23 and even more in 24 as 4.6% more CUs spent 2.3% more, 2.2% more often.
  • 25<34 (15.0% of CUs) $155.96 per CU (-5.7%); $3.17B – Down $0.32B (-9.1%). After trading Supplies $ for upgraded Food and Vet Care in 2016, these Millennials turned their attention back to Supplies. Tarriflation hit them hard in 2019 but they actually increased spending in the pandemic. The lift grew even stronger in 2021 but then spending fell slightly in 22>23 and even more in 24 as 3.5% less CUs spent 11.5% less $, 6.5% more often.
  • 75> (11.6% of CUs) $99.87 per CU (+42.1%); $1.58B – Up $0.48B (+44.0%). This low-income group is price sensitive but they are committed to their pets. Their spending was severely impacted by COVID but they strongly recovered in 21/22. Their $ fell in 23 but spiked in 24 as 1.3% more CU’s spent 25.0% more, 13.7% more often.
  • <25 (4.9% of CUs) $78.51/CU (-54.5%) $0.53B – Down $0.52B (-49.5%). It looks like they cut their Supplies spending in every possible way in 2024 as 10.9% more CUs spent 41.9% less $, 21.6% less often.

Supplies spending was again on an age roller-coaster but the most notable trend may be that <35 spent $0.84B less.

Next, let’s take a look at some other key demographic “movers” in 2024 Pet Supplies Spending. The segments that are outlined in black “flipped” from 1st to last or vice versa from 2023. The red outline stayed the same.

In 2024, even with only a small increase, 64.1% of segments still spent more. In 2023 it was 66%. There was again 1 Category  in which all spent more, Race/Ethnic. In 2023 it was Housing. In 2024 there were 11 “flips” but none that held their spot. In 2023 there were 9 “flips” and 5 “holdovers”. 2024 clearly had more turmoil and less stability than 2023.

5 winners are the “usual suspects”:  • Masters/Phd.    • $200K>    • 2 Earners    • Mgrs/Profess.    • Suburbs 2500>

4 are surprising:  • 4 People    • South    • Homeowner w/o Mtge    • Hispanics

Among the losers, most often show up here. There are only 2 big surprises:  • $150>199K    • Married, Couple Only

After the post pandemic binge buy in 21, Supplies spending fell $1.86B (-7.8%) in 22. This was not surprising after the record $8.65B lift. It is very similar to the binge/bust pattern in Food. Although spending fell by $1.9B, 52% of 92 demographic segments spent more on Supplies. In 23 spending grew $1.08B (+4.9%) as 65.6% of demographics spent more. In 24 spending was +$0.89B (+3.9%) and the demographic spending lift was 64.1%. There is a key factor to put Supplies spending in a better perspective. Many Supplies cartegories have been commoditized and are more susceptible to price changes. Prices fell 2016>18 and spending grew by $5B. Prices rose in 2018>19 and spending fell -$4.6B. In 22 inflation was 7.7%. That means that the amount of Supplies purchased in 22 was “really” -14.4%, almost double the actual $ drop. In 23 Supplies spending grew by $1.08B (+4.9%). Inflation was 2.6% so the “real” lift was +2.3%. (47% real) In 24 inflation slowed to 0.9% but spending was only up $0.89B (+3.9%). The “real” lift was 2.9% (75% real). Supplies are more discretionary, but many are needed for a better life. Supplies spending is moving to higher incomes but perhaps Pet Parents are becoming less sensitive to the high prices from cumulative inflation. We’ll see.

 

2024 U.S. PET FOOD SPENDING $40.04B…Down ↓$5.46B

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Total Pet spending reached another record high of $118.87B, up $1.27B (+1.1%). All segments but Food increased sales. Pet Food had a record drop while Veterinary $ continued double digit growth. Supplies & Services $ were up <4.0%. The big bad news was Pet Food. Their record decrease put them only 3.5% above 2022 and for the 1st time they are not the spending leader. Product inflation slowed but it is still strong in both Service Segments. Here are the 2024 $ specifics:

  • Pet Food – $40.04B; Down -$5.46B (-12.0%)
  • Pets & Supplies – $23.91B; Up $0.89B (+3.9%)
  • Veterinary – $41.26B; Up $5.60B (+15.7%)
  • Pet Services – $13.65B; Up $0.23B (+1.7%)

The industry truly is a “sum” of its integral segments, and each segment has very specific and often very different buying behavior from the many consumer demographic segments. For this reason, we’re going to analyze each of the industry segments first. This will put the final analysis of Total Pet’s 2024 Spending into better perspective. Note: The numbers in this report come from or are calculated by using data from the current and past US BLS Consumer Expenditure Surveys. In 2024, this was gathered by the U.S. Census Bureau from over 42,000 interviews and spending diaries. The final data was then compiled and published by the US BLS. All inflation numbers are also provided by the US BLS.

We will start with the formerly largest Segment, Pet Food (& Treats). In 2024 Pet Food Spending totaled $40.04B in the U.S., a -$5.46B (-12.0%) decrease from 2023. Pet Food inflation was 0.2% in 2024 so the record drop was “really” slightly worse in the amount of product sold than the actual numbers. In earlier research we discovered a distinct, long-term pattern in Pet Food Spending. In 2018 we broke the pattern due to outside influences – 1st the FDA warning, then with COVID in 2020. In 24, the pattern returned with a record $ drop. Here is Pet Food Spending since 1997 in full Retail Dollars and adjusted for inflation.

The pattern began in 1997. Retail Pet Food Spending increases for 2 consecutive years then reaches a plateau year or even drops. There was a notable exception in the period from 2006 to 2010. During this time, there were two traumas which directly impacted the Pet Food Retail market. The first was the Melamine recall, which resulted in radically increased prices as consumers insisted on made in USA products with all USA ingredients. The second affected everyone – the great Recession in 2009. This was the first time that annual U.S. retail spending had declined since 1956. The net result was that the plateau period was extended to include both 2009 and 2010.

For 20 years, Pet Food was driven by short term trends. A new trend catches the consumers’ attention and grows …for 2 years. Then sales plateau or even drop…and move to the next “must have”. After 2014, the changes  became bigger and the situation got more complex due to a number of factors starting with the move to high priced super premium foods, but including increased competition, especially from the internet, and behavioral changes, like increased value shopping. In 2018, outside influences came into prominence. The first was the FDA warning on Grain Free dog food. This caused many Pet Parents to back away from certain foods. When the warning was declared bogus, the Food segment began to recover. Then came COVID. Fear of possible shortages caused some groups to binge buy food. That ended and spending dipped in 2021. It turned up again in 22>23. Much of the lift was due to 10+% inflation. As expected, $ fell in 24. Of note: Considering inflation, only 38% of the 97>24 growth is real. Now, let’s take a closer look at spending since 2014.

First, some specifics behind the $5.46B (-12.0%) decrease to $40.04B. In 2024, the average U.S. Household spent a total of $295.90 on Pet Food. This was an -12.5% decrease from the $338.33 spent in 2023, which doesn’t exactly “add up” to the -12.0% decrease in total Food Spending. With additional data provided from the US BLS, here is what happened.

  • 0.6% more U.S. CUs
  • Spent 4.0% less $
  • 8.9% less often

By the way, if 68% of U.S. CUs are pet parents then their annual Pet Food Spending is $435.15. Here’s a rolling history.

2014 marks the beginning of the Super Premium era. It began in the 2nd half of 2014 with the 25>34-year-old Millennials making the 1st move. In 2015 the Baby Boomers got on board in a big way, producing a $5.42B increase in spending, the biggest lift in history at the time. 2016 saw a spending change that was accelerated by the high prices of Super Premium Pet Foods. After consumers upgraded to a more expensive pet food, their #1 priority became, “Where can I buy it for less?” Value Shopping on the internet was a major contributing factor in the big spending drop in 2016.

2017 was an up year which should have been due to a “must have” trend. However, a closer look at the data showed that the $4B increase in Pet Food spending in 2017 came not from a new trend but from a deeper demographic penetration of Super Premium foods. Value shopping in a highly competitive market, especially on the internet, had made Super Premium pet foods more accessible to a broad swath of consumers.

Like Pet Food, human behavior has changed over the years in regard to our pets. In the 90’s, Pet Owners became Pet Parents. Then, after 2000 we began truly humanizing our pets, which is very accurately reflected in the evolution of Pet Food. We became more focused on fulfilling the health needs of our pets, beginning with the first move to premium foods in 2004. This radically increased after the Melamine scare in 2007. Now consumers read pet food labels, research ingredients and expect their pet foods to meet the same quality standards as the best human foods. This was very evident in 2018. It should have been a year of increased spending but the consumers’ reaction to the FDA grain free warning threw the pattern out the window. In 2019 the warning lost credibility. Pet Food spending stabilized in the 1s half of the year and then grew by $2.3B in the 2nd  half. Some Pet Parents began to return to the topline Super Premium Foods while others opted for even more expensive varieties. Also, new groups got on board the Super Premium Express.

After the 2019 recovery came the pandemic of 2020. There is nothing more necessary to a Pet Parent than pet food. This spurred binge buying, especially in the 1st half of the year and drove the biggest annual spending increase in history. However, binge buying doesn’t increase usage and it causes an overstock in home supply. In 2021, Pets “ate down” the extra food so spending fell. Another factor was the ongoing strong search for value & convenience which continues to drive many consumers online. In 2022, Pet Food spending returned to a more normal pattern. In 2023, there was a record lift driven by 10.6% inflation and a 6% lift in frequency. Inflation slowed to 0.2% in 2024 and the transaction size dropped by 4%. However, the biggest change was in purchase frequency, -8.9%. Together, these factors produced a record $5.46B decrease in spending.

Even with the 2024 drop, the growth of Pet Food spending since 2014 reflects the rise of Super Premium but also another trend – the spectacular increase in the number and use of Pet Medications and Supplements, which are often produced in the form of treats. Together, the strength of Pet Food and these product subcategories reflect the Pet Parents’ top priority – the health, wellbeing and safety of their Pet Children, which starts with the quality of their food.

Now let’s look at some specific 2024 Pet Food Spending Demographics. The first is income. Prior to 2014 it was less of a factor in Food spending. However, the move to Super Premium has brought it more to the forefront. In 2015 the spending of the $70K> group exceeded the <$70K for the 1st time. In 2024, both <$70K & $70K> had drops but <$70K was -$4.2B while $70K> was only -$1.3B. All big groups but $70>100K were down but <$30K had the biggest drop. In 2015, the 50/50 divide on Pet Food spending was about $70K. By 2020, it was up to $107K. In 2022 it had fallen to $91K, but rose to $93K in 2023 and to $99K in 2024. That’s 5% less than the average CU income but 18% more than the median income. Higher income is increasing in importance in Pet Food spending. All CUs over $70K have 100+% performance ($ Share/CU Share) but the $150K> group is the best at 135%. The chart below shows annual spending for major income groups from 2018>2024. This should put the 2024 numbers into better perspective.

In 2023 and 2017 all major income groups spent more on Food. In 2024, only $70>100K spent more – a big change. Since 2018, we have seen the major impact on various groups by outside influences. In mid-2018 it was the FDA grain free warning. In 2020 it was the pandemic and in 2022 it was the first inflation spike. In 2023, consumers adapted to high prices. However, in 2024 “value” became a top priority. Some downgraded but many moved online or to private label.

    2024 National: $295.90 per CU (-12.5%); $40.04B; ↓$5.46B (-12.0%);  2018>2024: Up $11.20B (+38.8%); Avg: +5.6%

The biggest drops came from the Highest and lowest income groups, which clearly shows that value/price is important to everyone, regardless of income. The only spending increase was by the $70>100K group. This was not unexpected. They have fewer children than $100K> CUs so they have money to spend on pets.

Here are 2024 specifics:

  • Under $30K: (20.1% of CU’s) – $162.17 per CU (-29.7%) – $3.92B – ↓ $2.71B (-40.9%). Obviously, this group is very price sensitive. The number of CU’s was down 4.8% in 2024 and their avg CU income only grew by $208. Even with a $68 drop in Pet Food, their avg CU total expenditures rose by $540 – a big change from a -$682 drop in 2023. Their financial situation obviously got worse in 2024. Their spending lift in 2023 was likely due to an upgrade in Food. The drop in 2024 is so large that many CUs downgraded their Pet Food. They still spend 0.47% of their Total CU expenditures on Pet Food. The national avg is 0.38%. They remain committed Pet Parents.
  • $30K>$70K: (27.6% of CU’s) – $242.33 per CU (-17.0%) – $9.62B – ↓ $1.48B (-13.3%). They are also very price sensitive, so inflation had an impact. Their average income was up 0.3% while the national average increased by 2.4%. They had a 1.5% decrease in the number of CUs and a 0.4% decrease in CU spending. Their total Pet Food spending was down but it was driven by the $30>39K group. The $30>39K group lost 2.6% in CUs and CU Food spending was -41.8% & $ were -$1.97B (-46.9%). The $40>49K group fell -0.1% in CUs but their CU Food spending was +18.4%. Their $ were +$0.56B (+3.9%). $50>69K lost -1.6% in CUs and spent -11.2% less per CU on Pet Food. Their Pet Food $ only dropped by $0.04B (-0.8%). Behavior was mixed – upgrading, downgrading & value shopping. They are still committed to their pets, spending 1.09% of total expenditures on their pets and 0.45% on Pet Food.
  • $70K>$100K: (14.4% of CU’s) – $329.78 per CU (+4.1%) – $6.97B – Up $0.53B (+8.2%). This group has an up/down spending pattern. They committed to Super Premium food in 2017, but they have been very sensitive to outside influences – the FDA warning in 2018, COVID in 2020 and inflation in 2022. They have big family responsibilities and are under monetary pressure. They got used to inflation and made a comeback in 2023 which continued in 2024.
  • $100>150K (16.3% of CU’s) – $353.48 per CU (-11.4%) – $7.81B – ↓ $0.57B (-6.9%). They drove the binge buying of Food in 2020. It was pure emotion, but they had the $ to do it. In 2021, they had an expected big drop. In 2022, inflation and a 9.6% increase in CU’s drove a 23% increase in $. In 2023 they had 7.4% more CUs and spent 22.5% more $ per CU…+$1.67B. In 2024, 1.3% less CUs and CU spending dropped, most likely due to value shopping.
  • $150K> (21.7% of CU’s) – $415.26 per CU (-15.4%) – $11.72B – ↓ $1.23B (-9.5%). Their Pet Food CU spending fell by 15.4%, but CUs increased by 10.5%. Total $ were -9.5%. There may be some downgrading but most of the drop was due to value shopping or switching to private label. In performance, share of $/share of CUs, their score of 135.2% is only exceeded by a subgroup of theirs, $200K>, with 148%. Higher income is even more important.

The pandemic certainly caused turmoil. First, the fear-based binge buying, which caused a record increase in 2020. This couldn’t be repeated so spending fell in 2021. Spending returned to more normal, positive behavior in 2022 as only the $70>100K group spent less. In 2023 Inflation was high, but the welfare of their Pet children mattered more than the price, so most Pet Parents just paid more – a record lift. In 2024, we expected and got a drop. It was a record -$5.46B. It was widespread but focused <$70K. The 50/50 $ split moved up from $93K to $99K. High income matters even more.

Now, Spending by Age Group…

   2024 National: $295.90 per CU (-12.5%); $40.04B;  ↓$5.46B (-12.0%);  2018>2024: Up $11.20B (+38.8%); Avg: +5.6%

The 45>64 yr-old groups spent more, while all others spent less.

  • 65>74 (16.6% of CU’s) – $298.48 per CU (-27.8%) – $6.58B – Down $2.42B (-26.9%). This group is all Baby Boomers. They are starting to retire but many are still working (0.7 per CU). Their Pets are a priority. In 24, they spent 0.46% of their total CU expenditures on Pet Food, the highest % of any group but a big drop from 0.64%. Also, until the drop in 24, they are the only group to spend more on Pet Food every year since 2016. In 2024, 1.3% more CUs spent 13.1% less $, 16.9% less often. A downgrade by some CUs seems likely. Value shopping is a certainty.
  • 55>64 (17.6% of CU’s) – $361.15 per CU (+2.7%) – $8.71B – Up $0.23B (+2.7%). This group has been at the forefront of recent major spending swings. In 2015 they upgraded to Super Premium. In 2016 they shopped for a better price. In 2017 they led a deeper penetration of the upgrade. In 2018 they had a -$3.5B reaction to the FDA warning. They began to recover in 2019 but then came 2020, which saw a huge lift in spending. There were 3 major factors. First was binge buying due to pandemic. They also were still recovering from the FDA warning. Finally, the pandemic caused the loss of over 2 million <25 CUs. Many of them moved back with their parents bringing their pets with them. In 2021, there was a big drop in food $ as they “ate up” the extra stock and many of their kids moved out. In 2022 inflation brought a big lift. In 2023 they increased value shopping. In 2024 they had a small lift but were essentially stable as 0.02% more CUs spent 6.0% more $, 3.1% less often.
  • 35<44 (17.9% of CUs)- $292.96 per CU (-16.9%) – $7.04B – down $1.40B (-16.6%). They are 2nd in income & spending but have the biggest families. Until 23 their spending pattern matched the 45>54 yr-olds. In 23 their total Pet Food spending exceeded the older group. In 24 they fell behind as 0.4% more CUs spent 9.0% less $, 8.7% less often.
  • 45>54 (16.3% of CU’s) – $374.77 per CU (+11.5%) – $8.23B – Up $0.78B (+10.4%). This group is #1 in income and CU expenditures. Up until 2015 they were #1 in Pet Food spending. They didn’t “buy in” to Super Premium until 2017. They were negatively impacted by the FDA warning but strongly rebounded. In 2020, their spending dropped significantly. Much of the decrease was due to value shopping on the internet. In 2021, they opted for even more expensive food, spending 24% more on each purchase. In 2022, despite strong inflation, their purchase frequency and $ grew. In 23, their $ fell a little but this reversed in 24 as 1.0% fewer CUs spent 11.7% more $, 0.3% more often
  • 25>34 (15.0% of CU’s)- $256.17 per CU (-22.0%) – $5.56B – Down $1.26B (-18.5%). In the early Super Premium years their spending often foreshadowed the overall market for the next year. In pandemic 2020 they spent 22.3% more. Their $ stabilized in 21>22, then surged in 23. In 24 they fell as 4.5% more CUs spent 16.8% less $, 6.3% less often.
  • 75> (11.6% of CU’s) – $217.29 per CU (-6.8%) – $37B – Down $0.20B (-5.6%). Pet Parenting becomes harder as we age. They strongly moved to Super Premium Food in 2021. In 2022, inflation impacted them as many downgraded. In 23 they strongly rebounded but this slowed in 24 as 1.2% more CUs spent 4.7% more $, 10.9% less often.
  • <25 (4.9% of CU’s) – $93.14 per CU (-65.7%) – $0.56B – Down $1.19B (-68.1%). Many moved in with other adults or got married. They value shopped and likely downgraded food as 7.2% less CUs spent 38.1% less $, 44.5% less often.

In 2020 the 55>64 yr olds binge bought Pet Food. In 21 their spending naturally plummeted, the only decrease by any age group. In 22 we had high inflation. It affected everyone. In 23, there was a widespread spending surge. In 24, this flipped as the only lifts came from 2 older high income age groups.

Next, let’s take a look at some other key demographic “movers” in 2024 Pet Food Spending. The segments that are outlined in black “flipped” from 1st to last or vice versa from 2023. The red outline stayed the same.

The first thing that you notice is that the biggest decreases are radically larger than the biggest increases. We should also note that in 1 demographic category all segments spent less on Pet Food in 2024 than in 2023. The drop was also widespread as 81.5% of 92 demographic segments spent less than in 2023. These are signs that Pet Food spending was not doing well. Also note: 2024 was the 1st year in history that Food was not the biggest Pet $ segment. You can see that 17 of the 24 segments flipped from last to first or vice versa. Last year there were 4. None held their position from 2023. In 2023 there were 4 the same as 2022. There was a lot of change and almost no stability.

Only 3 of the winners are the “usual suspects”:

  • Gen X      ●   45>54 yrs old      ●   Married Couple Only

But there are 5 big surprise winners:

  • No Earner, 2+ CU      ●   $40>49K      ●   Asians      ●   Center City       ●   Occupation Not Defined

These winners indicate that despite the resulting high prices from cumulative inflation, there is a strong commitment to premium pet foods that is widespread across demographic categories.

Among the losers, 5 of the segments are not unexpected:

  • Singles     ●   Single, No Earner     ●   1 Person     ●   <$30K    ●   65>74 yrs old

There were 5 surprises. Most have higher incomes.

  •    Boomers    ●   Homeowners w/mtge     ●   White, Not Hispanic    ●   BA/BS Degree    ●   Suburbs 2500>

The 2023 $6.81B (+17.6%) increase was the biggest in history. It was widespread across 87.5% of 92 demographic segments. In 2024 it was followed by a -$5.46B (-12.0%) drop, also the biggest in history. It too was widespread across 81.5% of demographics. Pet Food spending is now up $8.85B from 2019, +28.4%, a growth rate of 5.1%, 4% less than the 5.3% from 2014>19. In terms of inflation adjusted sales, the amount of Pet Food sold in 2024 is only 4.3% more than in 2020. Pet Food Inflation was 10+% in 22/23, slowed to 0.2% in 24 & -0.5% in the 1st half of 25. We’ll see what happens.

 

 

Petflation vs “Human” Inflation

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With the current government shutdown, the high cost of living is a “top of mind” issue for all Americans. Our pets have become valued members of our families, so 1 question that often comes up is, “How does Petflation compare to Human Inflation?” In this report we will attempt to answer that question. For all Pet Segments but Supplies, there is a closely matching Human spending category, so the matchup is relatively easy. Let’s get started. We will begin with the most asked question, “How does Pet Food inflation compare to Grocery inflation?”

This chart and all but one in the report show annual cumulative inflation from 1997 to September 2025. 1997 was chosen as the base because that was the 1st year that the CPI was reported by Pet Industry Segment.

You can see that cumulative inflation is a pretty close match for Pet Food & Groceries.

  • Grocery prices have doubled since 1997 and Pet Food is close, +91.5%
  • Grocery inflation has been above Pet Food except for 2009>2014 and 2019.
  • The Melamine recall in 2007 and the switch to Made in the USA caused a spike in Pet Food prices in 2008/2009.
  • Inflation slowed and was similar for both from 2015 to 2019
  • The 2020 Pandemic had an earlier and slightly greater impact on Grocery prices than on Pet Food.

Now, let’s compare the cumulative inflation of Medical Services to Veterinary Services.

  • Human Medical Services prices are 2 2/3 times higher now than in 1997 so you see why people are concerned.
  • Veterinary prices have quadrupled since 1997, 79% more than Human Medical.
  • Veterinary inflation has been above Human Medical since 1999 and the gap has widened since 2022.

Now, we’ll compare Pet Services inflation to Haircuts & Other Personal Services.

  • They have very similar patterns, but Pet Services inflation has cumulatively been ahead of Human Haircuts/Personal Services every year since 1997.
  • The price gap began to widen in 2005 and Pet Services inflation is now 39% ahead of Haircuts.
  • Prices doubled since 1997 for Pet Services in 2020 and in 2023 for Haircuts.

Under normal circumstances, we would turn our attention to Pet Supplies. Unfortunately, there is no clearly matching Human Category for Pet Supplies. We did figure out a bit of a “work around”. The US BLS began reporting the CPIs for individual Pet Industry Segments in 1997. From 1977 to 1997 they only reported the combined CPI for Pet Products (Food, Pets & Supplies). A reasonable Human match for this group is the CPI for All Commodities.

Here is a chart comparing the inflation of Pet Products to All Commodities.

  • The 2 patterns are almost identical and the final numbers since 1977 are within 0.3%.
  • All Commodities had a slight lead in Inflation from 1977 through 2008.
  • Except for 2014 & 2021/2022, Pet Products took a slight lead in inflation from 2009>2025
  • Prices doubled for Commodities from 1977 in 1992 and for Pet Products in 1996.
  • Prices tripled from 1977 for both in 2021.

Finally, we will compare Total Petflation to the National CPI

  • Except for the Big Pet price lift in 2008/2009, the patterns are almost identical.
  • Pet took the lead in cumulative inflation in 2002 and have maintained it ever since.
  • The gap widened in 2008/2009 largely due to the switch to Made in the USA Pet Food.
  • Total Pet doubled 1997 prices in 2022. The National CPI did it in 2025.
  • Since 1997, Petflation is 27.7% more than the National CPI Rate.

In the charts, you saw Petflation patterns that were very similar to Human categories. However, Petflation “won” in all comparisons but Pet Food vs Groceries. The most impactful and concerning chart to me was Veterinary Services vs Human Medical Services. We hear a lot from a wide variety of sources about the high cost of Medical care. It’s amazing that the Veterinary price increase is 79% more. Veterinary prices have quadrupled since 1997.

The charts give a great historical overview but what will happen next? There are outside events that can directly affect prices. 2 examples are the 2007 Melamine recall in Pet Food as Pet Parents switched to “made in the USA, with all USA ingredients”. This caused prices to increase. The second event was the 2020 COVID pandemic. People changed spending patterns and there were serious supply chain disruptions which drove prices up. What is next? Another pandemic is likely but who knows what is next. We live in a very imperfect world so something will happen, sometime.

There is another important number that wasn’t included in the charts – the average annual YOY price change. Below are the annual average price changes for the Pet and Human Categories in the charts. All categories, including Pet Products and All Commodities, show the 1997>2024 average. This allows valid comparisons.

You see that except for Pet Food, the annual Petflation rate is 18>57% higher than the Human rate. It comes as no surprise that Veterinary and Medical Services have the highest rates for both Pets and People. Medical Services (+3.5%) is 40% above the National CPI but Veterinary leads the pack. Their average inflation rate is +5.0%, which is 67% above the Total Petflation rate.

I added a category to this list that is not in the charts – All Services. This was added to illustrate that Services is the driver in both overall Inflation and Petflation. There are only 2 major categories in spending. An expenditure is either for a Commodity (Product) or a Service. In overall spending, Services Inflation is 76.5% more than Commodities inflation and about 64% of all spending is on Services. The disparity is even worse in the Pet Industry. The Petflation rate for All Pet Services (Vet & Pet) is 2.35 times higher than the rate for Pet Products (Food, Pets & Supplies). Thankfully, Pet Services are less than half of Total Pet spending.

I hope that this report gave you a better understanding of Petflation in comparison to Overall Inflation. You can clearly see the similarities and differences.

 

 

Petflation 2025 – September Update: Jumps up to +3.5% vs Last Year

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The monthly Consumer Price Index peaked back in June 2022 at 9.1% then began to slow until it turned up in Jul/Aug 2023. Prices fell in Oct>Dec 23, then turned up Jan>Oct 24 but fell -0.1% in Nov. However, they have now risen for 10 straight months, including a 0.3% lift in September to a new record high. The CPI vs 24 also increased to +3.0% from +2.9% in August. Grocery prices rose 0.5% from August but their YOY inflation stayed at 2.7%, still the highest rate since 3.0% in August 23. Even minor price changes can affect consumer pet spending, especially in the discretionary pet segments, so we will continue to publish monthly reports to track petflation as it evolves in the market.

Petflation was +4.1% in Dec 21 while the overall CPI was +7.0%. The gap narrowed as Petflation accelerated. It was 96.7% of the national rate in June 22. National inflation has slowed considerably, but Petflation generally increased until June 23. It passed the CPI in July 22 but fell below it from Apr>Jul 24. It exceeded the CPI in Aug, fell below in Sep>Oct, rose above in Nov, fell below in Dec>Aug 25, then passed it in Sep. As we drill into the data, all reports will include:

  • A rolling 24 month tracking of the CPI for all pet segments and the national CPI. The base number will be pre-pandemic December 2019 in this and future reports, which will facilitate comparisons.
  • Monthly comparisons of 25 vs 24 which will include Pet Segments and relevant Human spending categories. Plus
    1. CPI change from the previous month.
    2. Inflation changes for recent years (23>24, 22>23, 21>22, 20>21, 19>20, 18>19)
    3. Total Inflation for the current month in 2025 vs 2019 and vs 2021 to see the full inflation surge.
    4. Average annual Year Over Year inflation rate from 2019 to 2025
  • YTD comparisons
    1. YTD numbers for the monthly comparisons #2>4 above

In our first graph we will track the monthly change in prices for the 24 months from Sep 23 to Sep 25. We will use December 2019 as a base number so we can track the progress from pre-pandemic times through an eventual recovery. This chart is designed to give you a visual image of the flow of pricing. You can see the similarities and differences in segment patterns and compare them to the overall U.S. CPI. The year-end numbers from 2023 and 2024 are included. We also included and highlighted (pink) the cumulative price peak for each segment. In Sep, Pet prices rose +0.7% from Aug. Services were down -0.2%. Food was stable (+0.005%). Supplies (+1.0%) & Vet (+1.4%) were both up.

In Sep 23, the CPI was +19.8% and Pet was +21.1%. The Services segments inflated after mid-20, while Product inflation stayed low until late 21. In 22, Food prices grew but the others had mixed patterns until July 22, when all rose. In Aug>Oct Petflation took off. In Nov>Dec, Services & Food inflated while Vet & Supplies prices stabilized. In Jan>Apr 23, prices grew every month for all segments except for 1 Supplies dip. In May Product prices grew while Services slowed. In Jun/Jul this reversed. In Aug all but Services fell. In Sep/Oct this flipped. In Nov, all but Food & Vet fell. In Dec, Supp. & Vet  drove prices up. In Jan>Mar 24 prices grew. In April, prices in all but Vet fell. In May, all but Food grew. In June, Products drove a lift. In July, all but Services fell. In Aug, Food drove a drop. In Sep, Products fueled a drop. Services drove a lift in Oct. In Nov, all were up. Prices dropped in March 25, but all but Food have set records since May.

  • U.S. CPI – The inflation rate was below 2% through 2020. It turned up in January 21 and continued to grow until flattening out in Jul>Dec 22. Prices rose Jan>Sep 23, fell Oct>Dec, rose Jan>Oct 24, fell Nov, then rose Dec>Sep 25 to a record high but 25.8% of the increase since Dec 19 happened from Jan>Jun 22 – 8.7% of the time.
  • Pet Food – Prices were at the Dec 19 level Apr 20>Sep 21. They grew & peaked May 23, then got on a roller coaster. The ride continues in 25 – Jan>Feb↑, Mar>May↓, Jun>Jul↑, Aug↓, Sep↔. 99% of the lift was in 22/23.
  • Pet Supplies – Supplies prices were high in Dec 19 due to tariffs. They had a deflated roller coaster ride until mid-21 when they returned to Dec 19 prices & essentially stayed there until 22. They turned up in Jan and hit a record high. They plateaued Feb>May, grew in June, flattened in July, then turned up in Aug>Oct to a new record. Prices stabilized Nov>Dec, but grew Jan>Feb 23. They fell in Mar, but the roller coaster went on. Dec>Feb 24↑, Mar/Apr↓, May/Jun↑, July↓, Aug↑, Sep/Oct↓, Nov/Dec↑, Jan>Feb 25↓, Mar>May↑(record), Jun↓, Jul↑, Aug↓, Sep↑.
  • Pet Services– Inflation is usually 2+%. Perhaps due to closures, prices increased at a lower rate in 2020. In 2021 consumer demand increased but with fewer outlets. Inflation grew in 21 with the biggest lift in Jan>Apr. Inflation was strong in 22 but prices got on a roller coaster in Mar>Jun. They turned up Jul>Apr 23 but prices fell in May. Jun>Aug↑, Sep>Dec↓, Jan>Mar 24↑, Apr↓, May↑, Jun↓, Jul>Nov↑, Dec>Mar 25↓, Apr>Aug↑(record), Sep↓
  • Veterinary – Inflation has been consistent. Prices turned up in Mar 20 and grew through 21. A surge began in Dec 21 which put them above the overall CPI. In May 22 prices fell and stabilized in June causing them to fall below the CPI. However, they rose again & despite some dips have been above the CPI since July 22. In 23>25 prices grew Jan>May, level Jun/Jul, fell Aug, grew Sep>Dec, fell Jan, grew Feb>May, fell Jun>Jul, grew Aug 24>Sep 25.
  • Total Pet – Petflation is a sum of the segments. In Dec 21 the price surge began. In Mar>Jun 22 the segments had ups & downs, but Petflation grew from Jul>Nov. It slowed in Dec, grew Jan>May 23, fell Jun>Aug, grew Sep/Oct, then fell in Nov. In December prices turned up and grew through Mar 24 to a record high. Prices fell in April, rose May>Jun, fell Jul>Sep, rose Oct>Nov, fell Dec, rose Jan>Feb 25, fell Mar, set records in Apr>Jul, fell Aug, rose Sep.

Next, we’ll turn our attention to the Year Over Year inflation rate change for September and compare it to last month, last year and to previous years. We will also show total inflation from 21>25 & 19>25. Petflation rose sharply from 2.5% to 3.5% and it is now 16.7% above the National inflation rate. The chart will allow you to compare the inflation rates of 24>25 to 23>24 and other years but also see how much of the total inflation since 2019 came from the current pricing surge. We’ve included some human categories to put the pet numbers into perspective.

Overall, prices were up 0.3% from Aug and were +3.0% vs Sep 24, up from +2.9% last month. Grocery prices rose but the CPI stayed at 2.7%. Only 1 category had a price decrease from last month, down from 3 in August. There were 2 drops in Apr/Oct/Nov but 3 in Aug/Sep/Dec/Mar and 5 back in July 24. The national YOY monthly CPI rate of 3.0% is 25% above 23>24, but 19% below 22>23 and 63% less than 21>22. The 24>25 rate is only below 23>24 for Pet Services, Pet Supplies & Haircuts. In our 2021>2025 measurement you also can see that over 75% of the cumulative inflation since 2019 has occurred in 4 segments, all Pet – all but Services (73.2%). Except for Pet & Vet Services, where prices have surged, Service Segments have generally had higher inflation rates so there was a smaller pricing lift in the recent surge. Pet Products have a very different pattern. The 21>25 inflation surge provided 93% of their overall inflation since 2019. This happened because Pet Products prices in 2021 were starting to recover from a deflationary period. Services expenditures account for 63.8% of the National CPI so they are very influential. Their current CPI is +3.6% while the CPI for Commodities is 1.9%. This shows that Services are driving most of the current 3.0% inflation, but Commodities did drive the small September increase. There is an even greater disparity in Pet, but products have a bigger share of $. Petflation is 3.5%. The combined CPI for the Service Segments is 6.9%, while the Pet Products CPI is 0.9%.

  • U.S. CPI– Prices are +0.3% from July. The YOY rate rose to 3.0% from 2.9%. It peaked at +9.1% back in June 2022. The targeted inflation rate is <2% so we are 50+% higher than the target. The Apr>Sep lifts follow Feb/Mar drops, 4 straight lifts and 6 consecutive drops from Apr>Sep 24. The current rate is above 23>24 and the 21>25 rate is still +18.4%, 69.4% of the total inflation since 2019. The Inflation surge took off in April 2021, +4.2%, up from 2.6%.
  • Pet Food– Prices are +0.003% vs August but +0.5% vs Sep 24. Prices have inflated for 3 straight months, but they are still far below the Food at Home inflation rate of +2.7%. The YOY Pet Food CPI has deflated in 15 of the last 19 months. The 2021>2025 inflation surge has generated 96.1% of the 23.0% inflation since 2019. Inflation began for Pet Food in June 2021, +0.9%, after 12 straight deflationary months.
  • Food at Home – Prices are +0.5% from August but the YOY increase stayed at 2.7%. This is still radically lower than Jul>Sep 2022 when it exceeded 13%. The 30.8% Inflation for this category since 2019 is 16% more than the national CPI but only in 4th place behind 3 Services expenditures (2 Pet). 65.9% of the inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25. This is close to the national CPI rate, but we should note that Grocery prices began inflating in 2020>21 then the rate accelerated. It appears that the pandemic supply chain issues in Food which contributed to higher prices started early and foreshadowed problems in other categories and the overall CPI surge.
  • Pets & Supplies– Prices were +1.0% from Aug and the CPI rose to 1.5% from +0.0%. They still have the lowest rate vs 2019. Prices were deflated for much of 20>21. As a result, the 21>25 inflation surge accounted for 90% of the total price increase since 2019. Prices deflated after Oct 22. 3 lifts pushed them to a record high in Feb 23. Prices fell March, rose Apr/May, fell Jun>Aug, grew Sep/Oct, fell Nov, grew Dec>Feb 24, fell Mar/Apr, rose May/Jun, fell July, rose Aug, fell Sep/Oct, rose Nov/Dec, fell Jan/Feb 25, rose Mar>May (record), fell Jun, rose Jul, fell Aug, then rose in Sep.
  • Veterinary Services– Prices are +1.4% from Aug and their YOY CPI vs 24 rose to +7.8% from +6.4%. They remain #1 in inflation vs 24 and are still the leader since 2019 with +48.2% and since 2021, +38.2%. For Veterinary, high annual inflation is the norm. However, the rate has increased during the current surge, especially since 23. They have the highest rate in 25, and 79% of the cumulative inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25.
  • Medical Services – Prices turned sharply up at the start of the pandemic but then inflation slowed and fell to a low rate in 20>21. Prices were up +0.2% from Aug, but inflation vs 24 slowed to +3.9% from +4.2%. Medical Services are not a big part of the current surge as only 63.7% of the 18.2%, 2019>25 increase happened from 21>25.
  • Pet Services – Inflation slowed in 20 but grew in 21. In 24 prices surged Jan>Mar, fell April, rose May, fell Jun, rose Jul>Nov, fell Dec>Mar 25 to 3.9%, Apr grew to 5.4%, May fell to 4.9%, rose to 5.9% in Jun & 6.3% in Jul, fell to 5.8% in Aug & 5.1% in Sep. They are #2 vs 24, 21 & 19. 73% of their 19>25 inflation is from 21>25. In Dec 23, it was 49%.
  • Haircuts/Other Personal Services – Prices are +0.9% from Aug and +4.6% from Sep 24. 14 of the last 21 months have been 4.0+%. Inflation has been pretty consistent. 62.5% of the 19>25 inflation happened 21>25.
  • Total Pet– Petflation jumped up to 3.5% from 2.5%. The biggest drivers were Vet (+7.8%) & Supplies (rose from 0.0% to 1.5%). 3.5% is 66.7% more than the 23>24 rate and 16.7% above the U.S. CPI. Plus, 3.5% is 13% above the average Sep Total Pet rate since 1997. Sep prices rose +0.7% from Aug but it was divided – Vet & Supplies up 1+%, Food flat, Services down -0.2%. An Aug>Sep increase has happened in 59% of the years since 1997 (avg Chge: +0.23%). The Pet CPI rose from 2.5% to 3.5%, a 40% increase. Another factor enhancing the big CPI lift was that prices fell -0.4% in Aug>Sep 24. Pricing is very important in Retail Sales, but the CPI is a complex measurement.

Now, let’s look at the YTD numbers.

The 24>25 rate is lower than 23>24 for all but Medical Services & Groceries. The 22>23 inflation rate was the highest for all pet categories but Supplies. 21>22 has the highest rate for Pet Supplies, Groceries and the National CPI. 20>21 has the highest rate for Haircuts. The average national inflation in the 6 years since 2019 is 3.9%. Only 3 of the categories are below that rate – Medical Services (2.9%), Pet Supplies (1.9%) and Pet Food (3.6%). It is no surprise that Veterinary Services has the highest average rate (6.6%), but all 4 other categories are +4.3% or higher.

  • U.S. CPI – The 24>25 rate is 2.7%, down 10% from 23>24, but it is down 39% from 22>23, 67.5% less than 21>22 and 30.8% below the average increase from 2019>2025. However, it’s still 86% more than the average increase from 2018>20. 75% of the 26.0% inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25. Inflation is a problem that started recently.
  • Pet Food – Ytd prices are still deflating, -0.2%, up from -0.3% in Aug and significantly up from -1.1% in Jan. That’s a big change from 0.7% in 23>24, 12.3% in 22>23 and even the 1.55% 18>20 average. It’s even below 20>21. Pet Food has the highest 22>23 rate but is only #4 in the 21>25 rates. Deflation in the 1st half of 2021 kept YTD prices low then they surged in 22 and especially in 23. 96% of the inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25.
  • Food at Home – The 24>25 inflation rate is more than double the 23>24 rate, but at 2.3%, it is down 63% from 22>23, 79% from 21>22 and even 11.5% less than 20>21. However, it is still 7% more than the average rate from 2018>20. It is only in 4th place for the highest inflation since 2019 but still beat the U.S. CPI by 13.5%. You can see the impact of supply chain issues on the Grocery category as 75% of the inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25.
  • Pets & Pet Supplies – A true roller coaster, prices rose Jan>Feb 24, fell Mar>Apr, rose May>Jun, fell July, rose Aug, fell Sep>Oct, rose Nov>Dec, fell Jan>Feb 25, then rose Mar>May. Prices vs 24 flipped from inflation to deflation in June, went back to inflation in July, slowed to 0.0% in Aug, then rose to 0.5%. Supplies still have the lowest inflation since 2019. Their biggest YOY lifts since 2019 were in 22 & 23. The 2021 deflation created an unusual situation. Prices are up 11.9% from 2019 but 107% of this lift happened from 21>25. Prices are up 12.7% from their 2021 “bottom”.
  • Veterinary Services – Inflation was high in 2019 and steadily grew until it took off in late 2022. The rate may have peaked in 2023, but it is still going strong in 2025, +6.5%, the highest on the chart. They are also #1 in inflation since 2019 and since 2021. At +6.6%, they have the highest average inflation rate since 2019. It is 69% higher than the National Average but 2.3 times higher than the Inflation average for Medical Services. Strong Inflation is the norm in Veterinary Services.
  • Medical Services – Prices went up significantly at the beginning of the pandemic, but inflation slowed in 2021. In 2025 it is 3.4%, 17% above the 2.9% 2019>25 average rate. We should also note that 3.4% is obviously radically higher than the -0.1% deflation in 22>23.
  • Pet Services – After falling in late 2023, prices surged in 2024, then fell in 2025 until an Apr>Aug resurgence followed by a Sep dip. The 24>25 5.2% CPI is 2nd, behind Veterinary on the chart. It is their lowest rate since 20/21, but it is double their 2018>20 2.6% average rate. Pet Services is also 2nd in both 19>25 and 21>25 inflation.
  • Haircuts & Personal Services – The services segments, essential & non-essential, were hit hardest by the pandemic. The industry responded by raising prices. 2025 inflation is 4.1%, 23% below its 20/21 peak, but 21% above the 18>20 average. Consumers are paying over 30% more than in 2019, which usually reduces the purchase frequency.
  • Total Pet – Petflation is 2.3%, up from 2.1% in Aug, but 15% less than 23>24. It’s also 1% lower than their 18>21 avg and 15% below the CPI. Petflation is still at its lowest rate since early 2021. This was primarily driven by deflation in Pet Products and lower inflation in Services. However, except for Mar & Aug, Pet prices have turned up in 25.

The Petflation recovery paused in Aug 24, came back Sep>Oct, paused in Nov, resumed in Dec>Jan, paused in Feb, restarted in Mar and paused Apr>Jun. Then July hit the highest rate in 25. It slowed in Aug but rose in Sep. We tend to focus on monthly inflation while ignoring one critical fact. Inflation is cumulative. Pet prices are 24% above 2021 & 29% higher than 2019. Those are big lifts. In fact, Sep prices for Vet & Total are the highest in history. Note: All other Pet Segments are within 0.7% of their record high. Only Supplies prices (+11.9%) are less than 23.5% higher than 2019. Since price/value is the biggest driver in consumer spending, inflation will affect the Pet Industry. Services will be the least impacted as it is driven by high income CUs. Veterinary will see a reduction in visit frequency. The product segments will see a more complex reaction. Supplies will likely see a reduction in purchase frequency and some Pet Parents may even downgrade their Pet Food. Products will see a strong movement to online purchasing and private label. At SZ and GPE 24 & 25, a huge number of exhibitors actively offered their OEM services. Strong, cumulative inflation has a widespread impact, but tarifflation can hit even harder. Supplies would likely be the most impacted by new high tariffs. We’ll see…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Petflation 2025 – August Update: Slows to +2.5% vs Last Year

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The monthly Consumer Price Index peaked back in June 2022 at 9.1% then began to slow until it turned up in Jul/Aug 2023. Prices fell in Oct>Dec 23, then turned up Jan>Oct 24 but fell -0.1% in Nov. However, they have now risen for 9 straight months, including a 0.3% lift in August to a new record high. The CPI vs 24 also increased to +2.9% from +2.7% in July. Grocery prices rose 0.4% from July and their YOY inflation jumped up from 2.2% to 2.7%, the highest rate since 3.0% in August 23. Even minor price changes can affect consumer pet spending, especially in the discretionary pet segments, so we will continue to publish monthly reports to track petflation as it evolves in the market.

Petflation was +4.1% in Dec 21 while the overall CPI was +7.0%. The gap narrowed as Petflation accelerated and reached 96.7% of the national rate in June 22. National inflation has slowed considerably since then, but Petflation generally increased until June 23. It passed the CPI in July 22 but fell below it from Apr>Jul 24. It exceeded the CPI in August, fell below in Sep>Oct, rose above in Nov, then fell below in Dec>Aug 25. As we drill into the data, all reports will include:

  • A rolling 24 month tracking of the CPI for all pet segments and the national CPI. The base number will be pre-pandemic December 2019 in this and future reports, which will facilitate comparisons.
  • Monthly comparisons of 25 vs 24 which will include Pet Segments and relevant Human spending categories. Plus
    1. CPI change from the previous month.
    2. Inflation changes for recent years (23>24, 22>23, 21>22, 20>21, 19>20, 18>19)
    3. Total Inflation for the current month in 2025 vs 2019 and vs 2021 to see the full inflation surge.
    4. Average annual Year Over Year inflation rate from 2019 to 2025
  • YTD comparisons
    1. YTD numbers for the monthly comparisons #2>4 above

In our first graph we will track the monthly change in prices for the 24 months from Aug 23 to Aug 25. We will use December 2019 as a base number so we can track the progress from pre-pandemic times through an eventual recovery. This chart is designed to give you a visual image of the flow of pricing. You can see the similarities and differences in segment patterns and compare them to the overall U.S. CPI. The year-end numbers from 12 and 24 months earlier are included. We also included and highlighted (pink) the cumulative price peak for each segment. In Aug, Pet prices were down -0.2% from July. Products were down – Food (-0.3%); Supplies (-0.6%), while Vet & Services were both up (+0.1%).

In Aug 23, the CPI was +19.5% and Pet was +20.7%. The Services segments inflated after mid-20, while Product inflation stayed low until late 21. In 22, Food prices grew but the others had mixed patterns until July 22, when all rose. In Aug>Oct Petflation took off. In Nov>Dec, Services & Food inflated while Vet & Supplies prices stabilized. In Jan>Apr 23, prices grew every month for all segments except for 1 Supplies dip. In May Product prices grew while Services slowed. In Jun/Jul this reversed. In Aug all but Services fell. In Sep/Oct this flipped. In Nov, all but Food & Vet fell. In Dec, Supp. & Vet  drove prices up. In Jan>Mar 24 prices grew. In April, prices in all but Vet fell. In May, all but Food grew. In June, Products drove a lift. In July, all but Services fell. In Aug, Food drove a drop. In Sep, Products fueled a drop. Services drove a lift in Oct. In Nov, all were up. Prices dropped in March 25, but all but Food have set records since May.

  • U.S. CPI – The inflation rate was below 2% through 2020. It turned up in January 21 and continued to grow until flattening out in Jul>Dec 22. Prices rose Jan>Sep 23, fell Oct>Dec, rose Jan>Oct 24, fell Nov, then rose Dec>Aug 25 to a record high but 26.1% of the increase since Dec 19 happened from Jan>Jun 22 – 8.8% of the time.
  • Pet Food – Prices were at the Dec 19 level Apr 20>Sep 21. They grew & peaked May 23, then got on a rollercoaster. The ride continues in 25 – Jan>Feb↑, Mar>May↓, Jun>Jul↑, Aug↓. 99% of the lift was in 22/23.
  • Pet Supplies – Supplies prices were high in Dec 19 due to tariffs. They had a deflated rollercoaster ride until mid-21 when they returned to Dec 19 prices & essentially stayed there until 22. They turned up in Jan and hit a record high. They plateaued Feb>May, grew in June, flattened in July, then turned up in Aug>Oct to a new record. Prices stabilized Nov>Dec, but grew Jan>Feb 23. They fell in Mar, but the rollercoaster went on. Dec>Feb↑, Mar/Apr↓, May/Jun↑, July↓, Aug↑, Sep/Oct↓, Nov/Dec↑, Jan>Feb 25↓, Mar>May↑(record), Jun↓, Jul↑, Aug↓.
  • Pet Services– Inflation is usually 2+%. Perhaps due to closures, prices increased at a lower rate in 2020. In 2021 consumer demand increased but with fewer outlets. Inflation grew in 21 with the biggest lift in Jan>Apr. Inflation was strong in 22 but prices got on a rollercoaster in Mar>Jun. They turned up Jul>Apr 23 but prices fell in May. Jun>Aug↑, Sep>Dec↓, Jan>Mar 24↑, Apr↓, May↑, June↓, Jul>Nov↑, Dec>Mar 25↓, Apr>Aug↑, a record!
  • Veterinary – Inflation has been consistent. Prices turned up in Mar 20 and grew through 21. A surge began in Dec 21 which put them above the overall CPI. In May 22 prices fell and stabilized in June causing them to fall below the CPI. However, prices rose again and despite some dips they have stayed above the CPI since July 22. In 23>25 prices grew Jan>May, leveled Jun/Jul, fell Aug, grew Sep>Dec, fell Jan, grew Feb>May, fell Jun>Jul, grew Aug>Aug.
  • Total Pet – Petflation is a sum of the segments. In Dec 21 the price surge began. In Mar>Jun 22 the segments had ups & downs, but Petflation grew from Jul>Nov. It slowed in Dec, grew Jan>May 23, fell Jun>Aug, grew Sep/Oct, then fell in Nov. In December prices turned up and grew through Mar 24 to a record high. Prices fell in April, rose May>Jun, fell Jul>Sep, rose Oct>Nov, fell in Dec, rose Jan>Feb 25, fell Mar, set records in Apr>Jul, then fell in Aug.

Next, we’ll turn our attention to the Year Over Year inflation rate change for August and compare it to last month, last year and to previous years. We will also show total inflation from 21>25 & 19>25. Petflation slowed from 2.6% to 2.5% and it is now -13.8% below the National inflation rate. The chart will allow you to compare the inflation rates of 24>25 to 23>24 and other years but also see how much of the total inflation since 2019 came from the current pricing surge. We’ve included some human categories to put the pet numbers into perspective.

Overall, prices were up 0.3% from July and were +2.9% vs Aug 24, up from +2.7% last month. Grocery inflation jumped up to 2.7% from 2.2%. 3 had a price decrease from last month, up from none in July & May. There were 2 drops in Apr/Oct/Nov but 3 in Aug/Sep/Dec/Mar and 5 back in July 24. The national YOY monthly CPI rate of 2.9% is 16% above 23>24, but 22% below 22>23 and 65% less than 21>22. The 24>25 rate is also above 23>24 for Pet Food, Groceries & Med Services. In our 2021>2025 measurement you also can see that over 75% of the cumulative inflation since 2019 has occurred in 4 segments, all Pet – all but Services (72.0%). Except for Pet & Vet Services, where prices have surged, Service Segments have generally had higher inflation rates so there was a smaller pricing lift in the recent surge. Pet Products have a very different pattern. The 21>25 inflation surge provided 96% of their overall inflation since 2019. This happened because Pet Products prices in 2021 were starting to recover from a deflationary period. Services expenditures account for 63.8% of the National CPI so they are very influential. Their current CPI is +3.8% while the CPI for Commodities is 1.3%. This shows that Services are driving almost all of the current 2.9% inflation, but Commodities did drive the August increase. There is an even greater disparity in Pet, but products have a bigger share of $. Petflation is 2.5%. The combined CPI for the Service Segments is 5.1%, while the Pet Products CPI is 0.1%.

  • U.S. CPI– Prices are +0.3% from July. The YOY rate rose to 2.9% from 2.7%. It peaked at +9.1% back in June 2022. The targeted inflation rate is <2% so we are 45+% higher than the target. The Apr>Aug lifts follow Feb/Mar drops, 4 straight lifts and 6 consecutive drops from Apr>Sep 24. The current rate is above 23>24 and the 21>25 rate is still +18.4%, 70.0% of the total inflation since 2019. The Inflation surge took off in April 2021, +4.2%, up from 2.6%.
  • Pet Food– Prices are -0.3% vs July but +0.2% vs Aug 24. Prices have inflated for 2 straight months, but they are still far below the Food at Home inflation rate of +2.7%. The YOY Pet Food CPI has deflated in 15 of the last 18 months. The 2021>2025 inflation surge has generated 100.4% of the 22.6% inflation since 2019. Inflation began for Pet Food in June 2021, +0.9%, after 12 straight deflationary months.
  • Food at Home – Prices are +0.4% from July and the YOY increase rose to 2.7% from 2.2%. This is still radically lower than Jul>Sep 2022 when it exceeded 13%. The 30.5% Inflation for this category since 2019 is 16% more than the national CPI but only in 4th place behind 3 Services expenditures (2 Pet). 69.2% of the inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25. This is about the same as the national CPI, but we should note that Grocery prices began inflating in 2020>21 then the rate accelerated. It appears that the pandemic supply chain issues in Food which contributed to higher prices started early and foreshadowed problems in other categories and the overall CPI surge.
  • Pets & Supplies– Prices were -0.6% from July and the CPI dropped to 0% from +0.7%. They still have the lowest rate vs 2019. Prices were deflated for much of 20>21. As a result, the 21>25 inflation surge accounted for 85% of the total price increase since 2019. Prices deflated after Oct 22. 3 lifts pushed them to a record high in Feb 23. Prices fell March, rose Apr/May, fell Jun>Aug, grew Sep/Oct, fell Nov, grew Dec>Feb 24, fell Mar/Apr, rose May/Jun, fell July, rose Aug, fell Sep/Oct, rose Nov/Dec, fell Jan/Feb, rose Mar>May. (record), fell Jun, rose Jul, then fell in Aug.
  • Veterinary Services– Prices are +0.1% from July, but their YOY CPI vs 24 stayed stable at +6.4%. They remain #1 in inflation vs 24 and are still the leader since 2019 with +46.2% and since 2021, +36.6%. For Veterinary, high annual inflation is the norm. However, the rate has increased during the current surge, especially since 23. They have the highest rate in 25, and 79% of the cumulative inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25.
  • Medical Services – Prices turned sharply up at the start of the pandemic but then inflation slowed and fell to a low rate in 20>21. Prices were up +0.1% from July, but inflation vs 24 slowed sightly to +4.2% from +4.3%. Medical Services are not a big part of the current surge as only 61% of the 18.3%, 2019>25 increase happened from 21>25.
  • Pet Services – Inflation slowed in 20 but grew in 21. In 24 prices surged Jan>Mar, fell April, rose May, fell Jun, rose Jul>Nov, fell Dec>Mar 24 to 3.9%, Apr grew to 5.4%, May fell to 4.9%, rose to 5.9% in Jun & 6.3% in Jul, then fell to 5.8% in Aug. They are #2 in inflation vs 24, 21 & 19. 72% of their 19>25 inflation is from 21>25. In Dec 23, it was 49%.
  • Haircuts/Other Personal Services – Prices are +0.5% from July and +3.7% from Aug 24. 13 of the last 20 months have been 4.0+%. Inflation has been pretty consistent. 60% of the 19>25 inflation happened 21>25.
  • Total Pet– Petflation slowed to 2.5% from 2.6%. The biggest driver was that Products inflation slowed to +0.1% from 0.3%. 2.5% is -10.7% less than the 23>24 rate and 13.8% below the U.S. CPI. Plus, 2.5% is 19% below the average Aug Total Pet rate since 1997. Aug prices fell -0.2% from July. It was divided – Products down, Services up. A Jul>Aug decrease has only happened in 22% of the years since 1997 (avg Chge: +0.2%). The Pet CPI slowed from 2.6% to 2.5%, a minor decrease. Another factor in minimizing the CPI drop was that prices also fell in Jul>Aug 24. Pricing is very important in Retail Sales, but the CPI is a complex measurement.

Now, let’s look at the YTD numbers.

The 24>25 rate is lower than 23>24 for all but Medical Services & Groceries. The 22>23 inflation rate was the highest for all pet categories but Supplies & Services. 21>22 has the highest rate for Pet Supplies, Groceries and the National CPI. 20>21 has the highest rate for Haircuts & Pet Services. The average national inflation in the 6 years since 2019 is 3.9%. Only 3 of the categories are below that rate – Medical Services (2.9%), Pet Supplies (1.9%) and Pet Food (3.6%). It is no surprise that Veterinary Services has the highest average rate (6.6%), but all 4 other categories are +4.3% or higher.

  • U.S. CPI – The 24>25 rate is 2.6%, down 16% from 23>24, but it is down 42% from 22>23, 68.7% less than 21>22 and 33.3% below the average increase from 2019>2025. However, it’s still 79% more than the average increase from 2018>20. 76% of the 25.9% inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25. Inflation is a problem that started recently.
  • Pet Food – Ytd prices are still deflating, -0.3%, up from -0.4% in July and significantly up from -1.1% in Jan. That’s a big change from 0.9% in 23>24, 13.0% in 22>23 and even the 1.7% 18>20 average. It’s even below 20>21. Pet Food has the highest 22>23 rate but is only #4 in the 21>25 rates. Deflation in the 1st half of 2021 kept YTD prices low then they surged in 22 and especially in 23. 96% of the inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25.
  • Food at Home – The 25 inflation rate is double the 23>24 rate, but at 2.2%, it is down 67% from 22>23, 80% from 21>22 and even 4% less than 20>21. However, it is still 5% more than the average rate from 2018>20. It is only in 4th place for the highest inflation since 2019 but still beat the U.S. CPI by 13%. You can see the impact of supply chain issues on the Grocery category as 76% of the inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25.
  • Pets & Pet Supplies – A true roller coaster, prices rose Jan>Feb 24, fell Mar>Apr, rose May>Jun, fell July, rose Aug, fell Sep>Oct, rose Nov>Dec, fell Jan>Feb 25, then rose Mar>May. Prices vs 24 flipped from inflation to deflation in June, back to inflation in July, then slowed to 0.0% in August. Supplies still have the lowest inflation since 2019. Their biggest YOY lifts since 2019 were in 22 & 23. The 2021 deflation created an unusual situation. Prices are up 11.8% from 2019 but 109% of this lift happened from 21>25. Prices are up 12.9% from their 2021 “bottom”.
  • Veterinary Services – Inflation was high in 2019 and steadily grew until it took off in late 2022. The rate may have peaked in 2023, but it is still going strong in 2025, +6.3%, the highest on the chart. They are also #1 in inflation since 2019 and since 2021. At +6.6%, they have the highest average inflation rate since 2019. It is 69% higher than the National Average but 2.3 times higher than the Inflation average for Medical Services. Strong Inflation is the norm in Veterinary Services.
  • Medical Services – Prices went up significantly at the beginning of the pandemic, but inflation slowed in 2021. In 2025 it is 3.3%, 14% above the 2.9% 2019>25 average rate. We should also note that 3.3% is also 16.5 times higher than the lowest rate of 0.2% in 22>23.
  • Pet Services – After falling in late 2023, prices surged in 2024, then fell in 2025 until an Apr>Aug resurgence. The 24>25 inflation rate of 5.3% is 2nd, behind Veterinary on the chart. It is their lowest rate since 2020, but it is 96% more than their 2018>20 average rate. Pet Services is also 2nd in both 19>25 and 21>25 inflation.
  • Haircuts & Personal Services – The services segments, essential & non-essential, were hit hardest by the pandemic. The industry responded by raising prices. 2025 inflation is 4.1%, 24% below its 20/21 peak, but 24% above the 18>20 average. Consumers are paying over 30% more than in 2019, which usually reduces the purchase frequency.
  • Total Pet – 2025 Petflation is 2.1%, the same as July, but 22% less than 23>24. It’s also 9% lower than their 2018>21 avg. and 19% below the CPI. Petflation is still at its lowest rate since early 2021.This was primarily driven by deflation in Pet Products and lower inflation in Services. However, except for Mar & Aug, Pet prices have turned up in 25.

The Petflation recovery paused in Aug 24, came back Sep>Oct, paused in Nov, resumed in Dec>Jan, paused in Feb, restarted in Mar and paused Apr>Jun. Then July hit the highest rate in 2025, but it slowed in Aug. We tend to focus on monthly inflation while ignoring one critical fact. Inflation is cumulative. Pet prices are 24% above 2021 and 28% higher than 2019. Those are big lifts. In fact, current Aug prices for Vet & Services are the highest in history. Note: Total & Pet Products are within 0.7% of their record high. Only Supplies prices (+11.6%) are less than 22.6% higher than 2019. Since price/value is the biggest driver in consumer spending, inflation will affect the Pet Industry. Services will be the least impacted as it is driven by high income CUs. Veterinary will see a reduction in visit frequency. The product segments will see a more complex reaction. Supplies will likely see a reduction in purchase frequency and some Pet Parents may even downgrade their Pet Food. Products will see a strong movement to online purchasing and private label. At SZ and GPE 24 & 25, a huge number of exhibitors actively offered their OEM services. Strong, cumulative inflation has a widespread impact, but tarifflation can hit even harder. Supplies would likely be the most impacted by new high tariffs. We’ll see…

Petflation 2025 – July Update: Jumps up to +2.6% vs Last Year

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The monthly Consumer Price Index peaked back in June 2022 at 9.1% then began to slow until it turned up in Jul/Aug 2023. Prices fell in Oct>Dec 23, then turned up Jan>Oct 24 but fell -0.1% in Nov. However, they have now risen for 7 straight months, including a 0.2% lift in July to a new record high. The CPI vs 24 also increased slightly to +2.70% from +2.67% in June. Grocery prices rose 0.1% from June but the YOY inflation slowed from 2.4% to 2.2% due to a +0.3% Jun>Jul price lift in 24. Even minor price changes can affect consumer pet spending, especially in the discretionary pet segments, so we will continue to publish monthly reports to track petflation as it evolves in the market.

Petflation was +4.1% in Dec 21 while the overall CPI was +7.0%. The gap narrowed as Petflation accelerated and reached 96.7% of the national rate in June 22. National inflation has slowed considerably since then, but Petflation generally increased until June 23. It passed the CPI in July 22 but fell below it from Apr>Jul 24. It exceeded the CPI in August, fell below in Sep>Oct, rose above in Nov, then fell below in Dec>Jul 25. As we drill into the data, all reports will include:

  • A rolling 24 month tracking of the CPI for all pet segments and the national CPI. The base number will be pre-pandemic December 2019 in this and future reports, which will facilitate comparisons.
  • Monthly comparisons of 25 vs 24 which will include Pet Segments and relevant Human spending categories. Plus
    1. CPI change from the previous month.
    2. Inflation changes for recent years (23>24, 22>23, 21>22, 20>21, 19>20, 18>19)
    3. Total Inflation for the current month in 2025 vs 2019 and vs 2021 to see the full inflation surge.
    4. Average annual Year Over Year inflation rate from 2019 to 2025
  • YTD comparisons
    1. YTD numbers for the monthly comparisons #2>4 above

In our first graph we will track the monthly change in prices for the 24 months from July 23 to July 25. We will use December 2019 as a base number so we can track the progress from pre-pandemic times through an eventual recovery. This chart is designed to give you a visual image of the flow of pricing. You can see the similarities and differences in segment patterns and compare them to the overall U.S. CPI. The year-end numbers from 12 and 24 months earlier are included. We also included and highlighted (pink) the cumulative price peak for each segment. In July, Pet prices were up 0.4% from June. All segments were up – Food (+0.5%); Vet (+0.2%); Services (+1.0%); Supplies (+0.003%)

In July 23, the CPI was +19.0% and Pet was +21.8%. The Services segments inflated after mid-20, while Product inflation stayed low until late 21. In 22, Food prices grew but the others had mixed patterns until July 22, when all rose. In Aug>Oct Petflation took off. In Nov>Dec, Services & Food inflated while Vet & Supplies prices stabilized. In Jan>Apr 23, prices grew every month for all segments except for 1 Supplies dip. In May Product prices grew while Services slowed. In Jun/Jul this reversed. In Aug all but Services fell. In Sep/Oct this flipped. In Nov, all but Food & Vet fell. In Dec, Supp. & Vet  drove prices up. In Jan>Mar 24 prices grew. In April, prices in all but Vet fell. In May, all but Food grew. In June, Products drove a lift. In July, all but Services fell. In Aug, Food drove a drop. In Sep, Products fueled a drop. Services drove a lift in Oct. In Nov, all were up. Prices dropped in March 25, but all but Food set records in May or July.

  • U.S. CPI – The inflation rate was below 2% through 2020. It turned up in January 21 and continued to grow until flattening out in Jul>Dec 22. Prices rose Jan>Sep 23, fell Oct>Dec, rose Jan>Oct 24, fell Nov, then rose Dec>Jul 25 to a record high but 26.5% of the increase since Dec 19 happened from Jan>Jun 22 – 9.0% of the time.
  • Pet Food – Prices were at the Dec 19 level Apr 20>Sep 21. They grew & peaked May 23. Jun>Aug ↓, Sep>Nov↑, Dec>Feb↓, Mar↑, Apr>May↓, June↑, Jul>Oct↓, Nov↑, Dec↓, Jan>Feb↑, Mar>May↓, Jun>Jul↑. 99% of the increase was in 22/23.
  • Pet Supplies – Supplies prices were high in Dec 19 due to tariffs. They had a deflated rollercoaster ride until mid-21 when they returned to Dec 19 prices & essentially stayed there until 22. They turned up in Jan and hit a record high. They plateaued Feb>May, grew in June, flattened in July, then turned up in Aug>Oct to a new record. Prices stabilized in Nov>Dec but grew in Jan>Feb 23. They fell in Mar, but the rollercoaster continued with Dec>Feb↑, Mar/Apr↓, May/Jun↑, July↓, Aug↑, Sep/Oct↓ & Nov/Dec↑, Jan>Feb 25↓, Mar>May↑(record), Jun↓, Jul↑.
  • Pet Services– Inflation is usually 2+%. Perhaps due to closures, prices increased at a lower rate in 2020. In 2021 consumer demand increased but with fewer outlets. Inflation grew in 21 with the biggest lift in Jan>Apr. Inflation was strong in 22 but prices got on a rollercoaster in Mar>Jun. They turned up Jul>Apr 23 but prices fell in May. Jun>Aug↑, Sep>Dec↓, Jan>Mar 24↑, Apr↓, May↑, June↓, Jul>Nov↑, Dec>Mar 25↓, Apr>Jul↑, a record!
  • Veterinary – Inflation has been consistent. Prices turned up in Mar 20 and grew through 21. A surge began in Dec 21 which put them above the overall CPI. In May 22 prices fell and stabilized in June causing them to fall below the CPI. However, prices rose again and despite some dips they have stayed above the CPI since July 22. In 23>25 prices grew Jan>May, leveled Jun/Jul, fell Aug, grew Sep>Dec, fell Jan, grew Feb>May, fell Jun>Jul, then grew Aug>Jul.
  • Total Pet – Petflation is a sum of the segments. In Dec 21 the price surge began. In Mar>Jun 22 the segments had ups & downs, but Petflation grew from Jul>Nov. It slowed in Dec, grew Jan>May 23 (record), fell Jun>Aug, grew Sep/Oct, then fell in Nov. In December prices turned up and grew through Mar 24 to a record high. Prices fell in April, rose May>Jun, fell Jul>Sep, rose Oct>Nov, fell in Dec, rose Jan>Feb 25, fell Mar, then set records in Apr>Jul.

Next, we’ll turn our attention to the Year Over Year inflation rate change for July and compare it to last month, last year and to previous years. We will also show total inflation from 21>25 & 19>25. Petflation grew from 2.1% to 2.6% and it is now just -3.7% below the National inflation rate. The chart will allow you to compare the inflation rates of 24>25 to 23>24 and other years but also see how much of the total inflation since 2019 came from the current pricing surge. We’ve included some human categories to put the pet numbers into perspective.

Overall, prices were up 0.2% from June and were +2.7% vs July 24, the same as last month. Grocery inflation slowed to 2.2% from 2.4%. None had a price decrease from last month, down from 1 in June but the same as May. There were 2 drops in Apr/Oct/Nov but 3 in Aug/Sep/Dec/Mar and 5 back in July 24. The national YOY monthly CPI rate of 2.7% is 7% below 23>24, 16% below 22>23 and 68% less than 21>22. The 24>25 rate is above 23>24 for all others but Pet Services & Haircuts. In our 2021>2025 measurement you also can see that over 75% of the cumulative inflation since 2019 has occurred in 4 segments, all Pet – all but Services (73.3%). Except for Pet & Vet Services, where prices have surged, Service Segments have generally had higher inflation rates so there was a smaller pricing lift in the recent surge. Pet Products have a very different pattern. The 21>25 inflation surge provided 98% of their overall inflation since 2019. This happened because Pet Products prices in 2021 were starting to recover from a deflationary period. Services expenditures account for 63.8% of the National CPI so they are very influential. Their current CPI is +3.8% while the CPI for Commodities is 0.7%. This shows that Services are driving almost all of the current 2.7% inflation. There is an even greater disparity in Pet, but products have a bigger share of $. Petflation is 2.6%. The combined CPI for the Service Segments is 5.6%, while the Pet Products CPI is 0.3%.

  • U.S. CPI– Prices are +0.2% from June. The YOY increase is stable at 2.7%. It peaked at +9.1% back in June 2022. The targeted inflation rate is <2% so we are 35+% higher than the target. The Apr>Jul lifts follow Feb/Mar drops, 4 straight lifts and 6 consecutive drops from Apr>Sep 24. The current rate is below 23>24 but the 21>25 rate is still +18.3%, 70.7% of the total inflation since 2019. The Inflation surge took off in April 2021, +4.2%, up from 2.6%.
  • Pet Food– Prices are +0.5% vs June and +0.1% vs July 24. Deflation in June flipped to Inflation in July. However, they are still far below the Food at Home inflation rate of +2.2%. The YOY Pet Food CPI has deflated in 15 of the last 17 months. The 2021>2025 inflation surge has generated 99.6% of the 22.9% inflation since 2019. Inflation began for Pet Food in June 2021, +0.9%, after 12 straight deflationary months.
  • Food at Home – Prices are +0.1% from June, but the YOY increase fell to 2.2% from 2.4%. This is radically lower than Jul>Sep 2022 when it exceeded 13%. The 29.8% Inflation for this category since 2019 is 15% more than the national CPI but only in 4th place behind 3 Services expenditures (2 Pet). 70.1% of the inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25. This is about the same as the CPI, but we should note that Grocery prices began inflating in 2020>21 then the rate accelerated. It appears that the pandemic supply chain issues in Food which contributed to higher prices started early and foreshadowed problems in other categories and the overall CPI surge.
  • Pets & Supplies– Prices were +0.003 from June and the CPI flipped to +0.7% from -0.1%. They still have the lowest rate vs 2019. Prices were deflated for much of 20>21. As a result, the 2021>25 inflation surge accounted for 97% of the total price increase since 2019. Prices set a record in October 2022 then deflated. 3 lifts pushed them to a record high in Feb 23. Prices fell March, rose Apr/May, fell Jun>Aug, grew Sep/Oct, fell Nov, grew Dec>Feb 24, fell Mar/Apr, rose May/Jun, fell July, rose Aug, fell Sep/Oct, rose Nov/Dec, fell Jan/Feb, rose Mar>May. (record), fell Jun, rose July.
  • Veterinary Services– Prices are +0.2% from June and their YOY CPI vs 24 grew to +6.4% from +6.1%. They remain #1 in inflation vs 24 and are still the leader since 2019 with +46.5% and since 2021, +36.7%. For Veterinary, high annual inflation is the norm. However, the rate has increased during the current surge, especially since 23. They have the highest rate in 25, and 79% of the cumulative inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25.
  • Medical Services – Prices turned sharply up at the start of the pandemic but then inflation slowed and fell to a low rate in 20>21. Prices were up +0.6% from June and inflation vs 24 grew to +4.3% from +3.4%. Medical Services are not a big part of the current surge as only 60% of the 19.0%, 2019>25 increase happened from 21>25.
  • Pet Services – Inflation slowed in 20 but grew in 21. In 24 prices surged Jan>Mar, fell in April, rose in May, fell in June, rose Jul>Nov, fell Dec>Mar to 3.9%, Apr grew to 5.4%, May fell to 4.9%, rose to 5.9% in June & 6.3% in July. They are #2 in inflation vs 24, 21 & 19. 73.3% of their total 19>25 inflation is from 21>25. In Dec 23, it was 49%.
  • Haircuts/Other Personal Services – Prices are +0.1% from June and +3.8% from July 24. 13 of the last 19 months have been 4.0+%. Inflation has been pretty consistent. 60.2% of the 19>25 inflation happened 21>25.
  • Total Pet– Petflation grew to 2.6% from 2.1%. The biggest driver was that Products flipped from Deflation to Inflation. 2.6% is 36.8% more than the 23>24 rate but still 3.7% below the U.S. CPI. Plus, 2.6% is 16% below the average July Total Pet rate since 1997. July prices rose 0.4% from June, driven by all segments. A Jun>Jul increase has happened in 70% of the years since 1997 (avg Chge: +0.2%, just ½ of 2025). The Pet CPI grew from 2.1% to 2.6%, a 23.8% increase. Another factor in the big July CPI lift was that prices fell -0.1% in Jun>Jul 24, compared to a 0.4% lift in 25. Pricing is very important in Retail Sales, but the CPI is a complex measurement.

Now, let’s look at the YTD numbers.

The 24>25 rate is lower than 23>24 for all but Medical Services, Pet Supplies & Groceries. The 22>23 inflation rate was the highest for all pet categories but Supplies. 21>22 has the highest rate for Pet Supplies, Groceries, Haircuts and the National CPI. The average national inflation in the 6 years since 2019 is 3.9%. Only 3 of the categories are below that rate – Medical Services (2.9%), Pet Supplies (1.9%) and Pet Food (3.6%). It is no surprise that Veterinary Services has the highest average rate (6.6%), but all 4 other categories are +4.3% or higher.

  • U.S. CPI – The 24>25 rate is 2.6%, down 19% from 23>24, but it is down 43% from 22>23, 68.7% less than 21>22 and 33.3% below the average increase from 2019>2025. However, it’s still 79% more than the average increase from 2018>20. 77% of the 25.9% inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25. Inflation is a problem that started recently.
  • Pet Food – Ytd prices are still deflating, -0.4%, up from -0.5% in May/Jun and significantly up from -1.1% in Jan. That’s a big change from 1.3% in 23>24, 14.2% in 22>23 and even the 1.7% 18>20 average. It’s even below 20>21. Pet Food has the highest 22>23 rate but is only tied for #4 in the 21>25 rates. Deflation in the 1st half of 2021 kept YTD prices low then they surged in 22 and especially in 23. 95% of the inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25.
  • Food at Home – The inflation rate is up 91% from 23>24 but at 2.1%, it is down 71% from 22>23, 80% from 21>22 and even 9% less than 20>21. However, it is still 2% more than the average rate from 2018>20. It is only in 4th place for the highest inflation since 2019 but still beat the U.S. CPI by 12%. You can see the impact of supply chain issues on the Grocery category as 77% of the inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25.
  • Pets & Pet Supplies – A true roller coaster, prices rose Jan>Feb 24, fell Mar>Apr, rose May>Jun, fell July, rose Aug, fell Sep>Oct, rose Nov>Dec, fell Jan>Feb 25, then rose Mar>May. Prices vs 24 flipped from inflation to deflation in June & back to inflation in July. Supplies still have the lowest inflation since 2019. The biggest YOY lifts since 2019 were in 22 & 23. The 2021 deflation created an unusual situation. Prices are up 11.9% from 2019 but 112% of this lift happened from 21>25. Prices are up 13.3% from their 2021 “bottom”.
  • Veterinary Services – Inflation was high in 2019 and steadily grew until it took off in late 2022. The rate may have peaked in 2023, but it is still going strong in 2025, +6.3%, the highest on the chart. They are also #1 in inflation since 2019 and since 2021. At +6.6%, they have the highest average inflation rate since 2019. It is 69% higher than the National Average but 2.3 times higher than the Inflation average for Medical Services. Strong Inflation is the norm in Veterinary Services.
  • Medical Services – Prices went up significantly at the beginning of the pandemic, but inflation slowed in 2021. In 2025 it is 3.2%, 10% above the 2.9% 2019>25 average rate. We should also note that 3.2% is also 5 times higher than the lowest rate of 0.6% in 21>22.
  • Pet Services – After falling in late 2023, prices surged in 2024, then fell in 2025 until an Apr>Jul resurgence. The 24>25 inflation rate of 5.2% is 2nd, behind Veterinary on the chart. It is only their 4th highest rate, but it is double their 2018>20 average rate. Pet Services is also 2nd in both 19>25 and 21>25 inflation.
  • Haircuts & Personal Services – The services segments, essential & non-essential, were hit hardest by the pandemic. The industry responded by raising prices. 2025 inflation is 4.1%, 23% below its 21/22 peak, but 26% above the 18>20 average. Consumers are paying over 30% more than in 2019, which usually reduces the purchase frequency.
  • Total Pet – 2025 Petflation is 2.1%, up from 2.0% in May/Jun but 22% less than 23>24. It’s also 9% lower than their 2018>21 avg. and 19% below the CPI. Petflation is still at its lowest rate since early 2021. This was primarily driven by deflation in Pet Products and lower inflation in Services. However, in Apr>Jul, Pet prices have generally turned up

The Petflation recovery paused in Aug 24, came back Sep>Oct, paused in Nov, resumed in Dec>Jan, paused in Feb, restarted in Mar, paused Apr>Jun, then in July jumped to the highest rate in 2025. We tend to focus on monthly YOY inflation while ignoring one critical fact. Inflation is cumulative. Pet prices are 24.0% above 2021 and 28.3% higher than 2019. Those are big lifts. In fact, current July prices for Vet, Services & Total Pet are the highest in history. Note: Pet Products are within 0.6% of their record high. Only Supplies prices (+11.4%) are less than 22.9% higher than 2019. Since price/value is the biggest driver in consumer spending, inflation will affect the Pet Industry. Services will be the least impacted as it is driven by high income CUs. Veterinary will see a reduction in visit frequency. The product segments will see a more complex reaction. Supplies will likely see a reduction in purchase frequency and some Pet Parents may even downgrade their Pet Food. Products will see a strong movement to online purchasing and private label. At SZ and GPE 24 & 25, a huge number of exhibitors actively offered their OEM services. Strong, cumulative inflation has a widespread impact, but tarifflation can hit even harder. Supplies would likely be the most impacted by new high tariffs. We’ll see…

 

Petflation 2025 – June Update: Slows to +2.1% vs Last Year

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The monthly Consumer Price Index peaked back in June 2022 at 9.1% then began to slow until it turned up in Jul/Aug 2023. Prices fell in Oct>Dec 23, then turned up Jan>Oct 24 but fell -0.1% in Nov. However, they have now risen for 7 straight months, including a 0.3% lift in June to a new record high. The CPI vs 24 also increased to +2.7% from +2.4% in May. Grocery prices rose 0.2% from May and YOY inflation grew from 2.2% to 2.4%. Even minor price changes can affect consumer pet spending, especially in the discretionary pet segments, so we will continue to publish monthly reports to track petflation as it evolves in the market.

Petflation was +4.1% in Dec 21 while the overall CPI was +7.0%. The gap narrowed as Petflation accelerated and reached 96.7% of the national rate in June 22. National inflation has slowed considerably since then, but Petflation generally increased until June 23. It passed the CPI in July 22 but fell below it from Apr>Jul 24. It exceeded the CPI in August, fell below in Sep>Oct, rose above in Nov, then fell below in Dec>Jun 25. As we drill into the data, all reports will include:

  • A rolling 24 month tracking of the CPI for all pet segments and the national CPI. The base number will be pre-pandemic December 2019 in this and future reports, which will facilitate comparisons.
  • Monthly comparisons of 25 vs 24 which will include Pet Segments and relevant Human spending categories. Plus
    1. CPI change from the previous month.
    2. Inflation changes for recent years (23>24, 22>23, 21>22, 20>21, 19>20, 18>19)
    3. Total Inflation for the current month in 2025 vs 2019 and vs 2021 to see the full inflation surge.
    4. Average annual Year Over Year inflation rate from 2019 to 2025
  • YTD comparisons
    1. YTD numbers for the monthly comparisons #2>4 above

In our first graph we will track the monthly change in prices for the 24 months from June 23 to June 25. We will use December 2019 as a base number so we can track the progress from pre-pandemic times through an eventual recovery. This chart is designed to give you a visual image of the flow of pricing. You can see the similarities and differences in segment patterns and compare them to the overall U.S. CPI. The year-end numbers from 12 and 24 months earlier are included. We also included and highlighted (pink) the cumulative price peak for each segment. In June, Pet prices were up 0.2% from May. All but Supplies were up – Food (+0.8%); Vet (+0.01%); Services (+0.9%); Supplies (-0.8%)

In June 23, the CPI was +18.7% and Pet was +21.8%. The Services segments inflated after mid-20, while Product inflation stayed low until late 21. In 22, Food prices grew but the others had mixed patterns until July 22, when all rose. In Aug>Oct Petflation took off. In Nov>Dec, Services & Food inflated while Vet & Supplies prices stabilized. In Jan>Apr 23, prices grew every month for all segments except for 1 Supplies dip. In May Product prices grew while Services slowed. In Jun/Jul this reversed. In Aug all but Services fell. In Sep/Oct this flipped. In Nov, all but Food & Vet fell. In Dec, Supp. & Vet  drove prices up. In Jan>Mar 24 prices grew. In April, prices in all but Vet fell. In May, all but Food grew. In June, Products drove a lift. In July, all but Services fell. In Aug, Food drove a drop. In Sep, Products fueled a drop. Services drove a lift in Oct. In Nov, all were up. Prices dropped in March 25, but all but Food set records in May and/or June.

  • U.S. CPI – The inflation rate was below 2% through 2020. It turned up in January 21 and continued to grow until flattening out in Jul>Dec 22. Prices rose Jan>Sep 23, fell Oct>Dec, rose Jan>Oct 24, fell Nov, then rose Dec>Jun 25 to a record high but 26.7% of the increase since Dec 19 happened from Jan>Jun 22 – 9.1% of the time.
  • Pet Food – Prices were at the Dec 19 level from Apr 20>Sep 21. Then they grew & peaked May 23. Jun>Aug ↓, Sep>Nov↑, Dec>Feb↓, Mar↑, Apr>May↓, June↑, Jul>Oct↓, Nov↑, Dec↓, Jan>Feb↑, Mar>May↓, Jun↑. 99% of the increase was in 22/23.
  • Pet Supplies – Supplies prices were high in Dec 19 due to tariffs. They had a deflated rollercoaster ride until mid-21 when they returned to Dec 19 prices & essentially stayed there until 22. They turned up in Jan and hit a record high. They plateaued Feb>May, grew in June, flattened in July, then turned up in Aug>Oct to a new record. Prices stabilized in Nov>Dec but grew in Jan>Feb 23. They fell in Mar, but the rollercoaster continued with Dec>Feb 24↑, Mar/Apr↓, May/Jun↑, July↓, Aug↑, Sep/Oct↓ & Nov/Dec↑, Jan>Feb 25↓, Mar>May↑(record), June↓.
  • Pet Services– Inflation is usually 2+%. Perhaps due to closures, prices increased at a lower rate in 2020. In 2021 consumer demand increased but with fewer outlets. Inflation grew in 21 with the biggest lift in Jan>Apr. Inflation was strong in 22 but prices got on a rollercoaster in Mar>Jun. They turned up Jul>Apr 23 but prices fell in May. Jun>Aug↑, Sep>Dec↓, Jan>Mar 24↑, Apr↓, May↑, June↓, Jul>Nov↑, Dec>Mar 25↓, Apr>Jun↑, a new record!
  • Veterinary – Inflation has been consistent. Prices turned up in Mar 20 and grew through 21. A surge began in Dec 21 which put them above the overall CPI. In May 22 prices fell and stabilized in June causing them to fall below the CPI. However, prices rose again and despite some dips they have stayed above the CPI since July 22. In 23>25 prices grew Jan>May 23, leveled Jun/Jul, fell Aug, grew Sep>Dec, fell Jan 24, grew Feb>May, fell Jun>Jul, grew Aug>Jun 25.
  • Total Pet – Petflation is a sum of the segments. In Dec 21 the price surge began. In Mar>Jun 22 the segments had ups & downs, but Petflation grew from Jul>Nov. It slowed in Dec, grew Jan>May 23 (record), fell Jun>Aug, grew Sep/Oct, then fell in Nov. In December prices turned up and grew through Mar 24 to a record high. Prices fell in April, rose May>Jun, fell Jul>Sep, rose Oct>Nov, fell in Dec, rose Jan>Feb 25, fell Mar, then set records in Apr>Jun.

Next, we’ll turn our attention to the Year Over Year inflation rate change for June and compare it to last month, last year and to previous years. We will also show total inflation from 21>25 & 19>25. Petflation slowed from 2.2% to 2.1% and it is even further below the National inflation rate (now by -22.2%). The chart will allow you to compare the inflation rates of 24>25 to 23>24 and other years but also see how much of the total inflation since 2019 came from the current pricing surge. We’ve included some human categories to put the pet numbers into perspective.

Overall, prices were up 0.3% from May and were +2.7% vs June 24, up from +2.4% last month. Grocery inflation grew to 2.4% from 2.2%. Only 1 had a price decrease from last month. This is up from 0 in May but down from 2 in April. There were also 2 drops in Oct/Nov but 3 in Aug/Sep/Dec/Mar and 5 back in July 24. The national YOY monthly CPI rate of 2.7% is up from 2.4%, but 10% below the 23>24 & 22>23 rates and 70% less than 21>22. The 24>25 rate is above 23>24 for 3 – Groceries, Medical Services & Total Pet. In our 2021>2025 measurement you also can see that over 75% of the cumulative inflation since 2019 has occurred in 4 segments, all Pet – all but Services (close at 74.5%). Except for Pet & Vet Services, where prices have surged, Service Segments have generally had higher inflation rates so there was a smaller pricing lift in the recent surge. Pet Products have a very different pattern. The 21>25 inflation surge actually provided 104% of their overall inflation since 2019. This happened because Pet Products prices in 2021 were starting to recover from a deflationary period. Services expenditures account for 63.8% of the National CPI so they are very influential. Their current CPI is +3.8% while the CPI for Commodities is 0.6%. This shows that Services are driving almost all of the current 2.7% inflation. There is an even greater disparity in Pet, but products have a bigger share of $. Petflation is 2.1%. The combined CPI for the Service Segments is 5.6%, while the Pet Products CPI is -0.5%.

  • U.S. CPI– Prices are +0.3% from May. The YOY increase is 2.7%, up from 2.4%. It peaked at +9.1% back in June 2022. The targeted inflation rate is <2% so we are 35+% higher than the target. The Apr>Jun lifts follow Feb/Mar drops, 4 straight lifts and 6 consecutive drops from Apr>Sep 24. The current rate is below 23>24 but the 21>25 rate is still +18.7%, 72.2% of the total inflation since 2019. The Inflation surge took off in April 2021, +4.2%, up from 2.6%.
  • Pet Food– Prices are +0.8% vs May and -0.3% vs June 24. YOY deflation slowed from -0.5% in May. However, they are still far below the Food at Home inflation rate of +2.4%. The YOY Pet Food CPI has now deflated in 15 of the last 16 months. The 2021>2025 inflation surge has generated 98.7% of the 23.3% inflation since 2019. Inflation began for Pet Food in June 2021, +0.9%, after 12 straight deflationary months.
  • Food at Home – Prices are +0.2% from May, and the YOY increase rose to 2.4% from 2.2%. This is still radically lower than Jul>Sep 2022 when it exceeded 13%. The 29.7% Inflation for this category since 2019 is 15% more than the national CPI but only in 4th place behind 3 Services expenditures (2 Pet). 72.7% of the inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25. This is about the same as the CPI, but we should note that Grocery prices began inflating in 2020>21 then the rate accelerated. It appears that the pandemic supply chain issues in Food which contributed to higher prices started early and foreshadowed problems in other categories and the overall CPI surge.
  • Pets & Supplies– Prices were -0.8% from May and the CPI flipped to -0.1% from 1.7%. They still have the lowest rate vs 2019. Prices were deflated for much of 20>21. As a result, the 2021>25 inflation surge accounted for 124% of the total price increase since 2019. Prices set a record in October 2022 then deflated. 3 lifts pushed them to a record high in Feb 23. Prices fell March, rose Apr/May, fell Jun>Aug, grew Sep/Oct, fell Nov, grew Dec>Feb 24, fell Mar/Apr, rose May/Jun, fell July, rose Aug, fell Sep/Oct, rose Nov/Dec, fell Jan/Feb 25, rose Mar>May. (new record), then fell in June.
  • Veterinary Services– Prices are only +0.01% from May, but their YOY CPI vs 24 grew to +6.1% from +5.6%. They remain #1 in inflation vs 24 and are still the leader since 2019 with +47.0% and since 2021, +35.3%. For Veterinary, high annual inflation is the norm. However, the rate has increased during the current surge, especially since 23. They have the highest rate in 25, and 75% of the cumulative inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25.
  • Medical Services – Prices turned sharply up at the start of the pandemic but then inflation slowed and fell to a low rate in 20>21. Prices were up +0.6% from May and inflation vs 24 grew to +3.4% in June from +3.0% in May. Medical Services are not a big part of the current surge as only 58.7% of the 18.9%, 2019>25 increase happened from 21>25.
  • Pet Services – Inflation slowed in 20 but grew in 21. In 24 prices surged Jan>Mar, fell in April, rose in May, fell in June, rose Jul>Nov, fell Dec>Mar 25 to 3.9%, grew to 5.4% in Apr, fell to 4.9% in May, then rose to 5.9% in June. They are #2 in YOY inflation vs 24 and vs 21 & 19. 74.5% of their total 19>25 inflation is from 21>25. In Dec 23, it was 49%.
  • Haircuts/Other Personal Services – Prices are +0.6% from May and +3.8% from June 24. 13 of the last 18 months have been 4.0+%. Inflation has been pretty consistent. 66.8% of the 19>25 inflation happened 21>25.
  • Total Pet– Petflation slowed to 2.1% from 2.2% in May. Services had higher rates while Products deflated. 2.1% is 5.0% more than the 23>24 rate but 22.2% below the U.S. CPI. Plus, 2.1% is 32% below the average June Pet rate since 1997. June prices rose 2% from May, driven by all but Supplies. A May>Jun increase has happened in 70% of the years since 1997 (avg Chge: +0.2%, equal to 2025). The Pet CPI slowed from 2.2% to 2.1%, a 4.5% decrease. A key factor in the small 25 CPI drop was that prices rose 0.3% in May>Jun 24, compared to a 0.2% lift in 25. In 2025, we continue to move towards more normal spending patterns.

Now, let’s look at the YTD numbers.

The 24>25 rate is lower than 23>24 for all but Medical Services, Pet Supplies & Groceries. The 22>23 inflation rate was the highest for all pet categories but Supplies. 21>22 has the highest rate for Pet Supplies, Groceries, Haircuts and the National CPI. The average national inflation in the 6 years since 2019 is 3.9%. Only 3 of the categories are below that rate – Medical Services (2.9%), Pet Supplies (1.9%) and Pet Food (3.6%). It is no surprise that Veterinary Services has the highest average rate (6.6%), but all 4 other categories are +4.3% or higher.

  • U.S. CPI – The 24>25 rate is 2.6%, down 19% from 23>24, but it is down 47% from 22>23, 68.7% less than 21>22 and 33.3% below the average increase from 2019>2025. However, it’s still 79% more than the average increase from 2018>20. 78% of the 25.9% inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25. Inflation is a problem that started recently.
  • Pet Food – Ytd prices are still deflating, -0.5%, the same as May, but up from -1.1% in Jan. That’s a big change from 1.3% in 23>24, 14.2% in 22>23 and even the 1.7% 18>20 average. It’s even below the deflation in 20>21. Pet Food has the highest 22>23 rate but is only #5 in the 21>25 rates. Deflation in the 1st half of 2021 kept YTD prices low then they surged in 22 and especially in 23. 94% of the inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25.
  • Food at Home – The inflation rate is up 91% from 23>24 but at 2.1%, it is down 73% from 22>23, 79% from 21>22 and even 5% less than 20>21. However, it is still 8% more than the average rate from 2018>20. It is only in 4th place for the highest inflation since 2019 but still beat the U.S. CPI by 12%. You can see the impact of supply chain issues on the Grocery category as 78% of the inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25.
  • Pets & Pet Supplies – A true roller coaster, prices rose Jan>Feb 24, fell Mar>Apr, rose May>Jun, fell July, rose Aug, fell Sep>Oct, rose Nov>Dec, fell Jan>Feb 25, then rose Mar>May. Prices vs 24 flipped from inflation to deflation in June. Supplies still have the lowest inflation since 2019. The biggest YOY lifts since 2019 were in 22 & 23. The 2021 deflation created an unusual situation. Prices are up 11.9% from 2019 but 115% of this lift happened from 21>25. Prices are up 13.7% from their 2021 “bottom”.
  • Veterinary Services – Inflation was high in 2019 and steadily grew until it took off in late 2022. The rate may have peaked in 2023, but it is still going strong in 2025, +6.3%, the highest on the chart. They are also #1 in inflation since 2019 and since 2021. At +6.6%, they have the highest average inflation rate since 2019. It is 1.7 times higher than the National Average but 2.3 times higher than the Inflation average for Medical Services. Strong Inflation is the norm in Veterinary Services.
  • Medical Services – Prices went up significantly at the beginning of the pandemic, but inflation slowed in 2021. In 2025 it is 3.0%, just slightly above the 2.9% 2019>25 average rate. However, it is being measured against 2024 which had the 2nd lowest Ytd June rate since 2019.
  • Pet Services – After falling in late 2023, prices surged in 2024, then fell in 2025 until an Apr>Jun resurgence. The 24>25 inflation rate of 5.0% is 2nd, behind Veterinary on the chart. It is only their 4th highest rate, but it is 1.3 times higher than their 2018>21 average rate. Pet Services is also 2nd in both 19>25 and 21>25 inflation.
  • Haircuts & Personal Services – The services segments, essential & non-essential, were hit hardest by the pandemic. The industry responded by raising prices. 2025 inflation is 4.2%, 22% below its 21 peak, but 31% above the 18>20 average. Consumers are paying over 30% more than in 2019, which usually reduces the purchase frequency.
  • Total Pet – 2025 Petflation is 2.0%, the same as May but 31% less than 23>24. It’s even 10% lower than the 2018>21 avg rate. Plus, it is 23% below the CPI. Petflation is still at its lowest rate since early 2021. This was primarily driven by deflation in Pet Products and lower inflation in Services. However, in Apr>Jun, Pet prices have generally turned up

The Petflation recovery paused in Aug, came back Sep>Oct, paused in Nov, resumed in Dec>Jan, paused in Feb, restarted in Mar, paused in Apr>May, but “sort of” restarted in June. We tend to focus on monthly YOY inflation while ignoring one critical fact. Inflation is cumulative. Pet prices are 24.2% above 2021 and 28.5% higher than 2019. Those are big lifts. In fact, current June Pet prices for both Service segments & Total Pet are the highest in history. Note: Product prices are within 1.1% of their record high. Only Supplies prices (+11.6%) are less than 23.3% higher than 2019. Since price/value is the biggest driver in consumer spending, inflation will affect the Pet Industry. Services will be the least impacted as it is driven by high income CUs. Veterinary will see a reduction in visit frequency. The product segments will see a more complex reaction. Supplies will likely see a reduction in purchase frequency and some Pet Parents may even downgrade their Pet Food. Products will see a strong movement to online purchasing and private label. At SZ 24 and GPE 24 & 25, a huge number of exhibitors actively offered their OEM services. We’ll see the same at SZ 25. Strong, cumulative inflation has a widespread impact, but tarifflation can hit even harder. Supplies would likely be the most impacted by new high tariffs. We’ll see…

 

Petflation 2025 – May Update: Moves Up to +2.2% vs Last Year

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The monthly Consumer Price Index peaked back in June 2022 at 9.1% then began to slow until it turned up in Jul/Aug 2023. Prices fell in Oct>Dec 23, then turned up Jan>Oct 24 but fell -0.1% in Nov. However, they have now risen for 6 straight months, including a 0.2% lift in May to a new record high. The CPI vs 24 also increased to +2.4% from +2.3% in April. Grocery prices rose 0.2% from April and YOY inflation grew from 2.0% to 2.2%. Even minor price changes can affect consumer pet spending, especially in the discretionary pet segments, so we will continue to publish monthly reports to track petflation as it evolves in the market.

Petflation was +4.1% in Dec 21 while the overall CPI was +7.0%. The gap narrowed as Petflation accelerated and reached 96.7% of the national rate in June 22. National inflation has slowed considerably since then, but Petflation generally increased until June 23. It passed the CPI in July 22 but fell below it from Apr>Jul 24. It exceeded the CPI in August, fell below in Sep>Oct, rose above in Nov, then fell below in Dec>May 25. As we drill into the data, all reports will include:

  • A rolling 24 month tracking of the CPI for all pet segments and the national CPI. The base number will be pre-pandemic December 2019 in this and future reports, which will facilitate comparisons.
  • Monthly comparisons of 25 vs 24 which will include Pet Segments and relevant Human spending categories. Plus
    1. CPI change from the previous month.
    2. Inflation changes for recent years (23>24, 22>23, 21>22, 20>21, 19>20, 18>19)
    3. Total Inflation for the current month in 2025 vs 2019 and vs 2021 to see the full inflation surge.
    4. Average annual Year Over Year inflation rate from 2019 to 2025
  • YTD comparisons
    1. YTD numbers for the monthly comparisons #2>4 above

In our first graph we will track the monthly change in prices for the 24 months from May 23 to May 25. We will use December 2019 as a base number so we can track the progress from pre-pandemic times through an eventual recovery. This chart is designed to give you a visual image of the flow of pricing. You can see the similarities and differences in segment patterns and compare them to the overall U.S. CPI. The year-end numbers from 12 and 24 months earlier are included. We also included and highlighted (pink) the cumulative price peak for each segment. In May, Pet prices were up 0.5% from Apr. All were up – Food (+0.01%); Vet (+0.5%); Services (+1.1%); Supplies (+0.5%)

In May 23, the CPI was +18.3% and Pet was +21.9%. The Services segments inflated after mid-20, while Product inflation stayed low until late 21. In 22, Food prices grew but the others had mixed patterns until July 22, when all rose. In Aug>Oct Petflation took off. In Nov>Dec, Services & Food inflated while Vet & Supplies prices stabilized. In Jan>Apr 23, prices grew every month for all segments except for 1 Supplies dip. In May Product prices grew while Services slowed. In Jun/Jul this reversed. In Aug all but Services fell. In Sep/Oct this flipped. In Nov, all but Food & Vet fell. In Dec, Supp. & Vet  drove prices up. In Jan>Mar 24 prices grew. In April, prices in all but Vet fell. In May, all but Food grew. In June, Products drove a lift. In July, all but Services fell. In Aug, Food drove a drop. In Sep, Products fueled a drop. Services drove a lift in Oct. In Nov, all were up. After the drop in March 25, all but Food reached record highs in April & May.

  • U.S. CPI – The inflation rate was below 2% through 2020. It turned up in January 21 and continued to grow until flattening out in Jul>Dec 22. Prices rose Jan>Sep 23, fell Oct>Dec, rose Jan>Oct 24, fell Nov, then rose Dec>May to a record high but 27.1% of the increase since Dec 19 happened from Jan>Jun 22 – 9.2% of the time.
  • Pet Food – Prices were at the Dec 19 level Apr 20>Sep 21. They grew & peaked May 23. Jun>Aug ↓, Sep>Nov↑, Dec>Feb↓, Mar↑, Apr>May↓, June↑, Jul>Oct↓, Nov↑, Dec↓, Jan>Feb↑, Mar>May↓. 99% of the lift occurred in 22/23.
  • Pet Supplies – Supplies prices were high in Dec 19 due to tariffs. They had a deflated rollercoaster ride until mid-21 when they returned to Dec 19 prices & essentially stayed there until 22. They turned up in Jan 22 and hit a record high. They plateaued Feb>May, grew in June, flattened in July, then turned up in Aug>Oct to a new record. Prices stabilized in Nov>Dec but grew in Jan>Feb 23. They fell in Mar, but the rollercoaster continued with Dec>Feb↑, Mar/Apr↓, May/Jun↑, July↓, Aug↑, Sep/Oct↓ & Nov/Dec↑, Jan>Feb 25↓, Mar>May↑ to a new record high.
  • Pet Services– Inflation is usually 2+%. Perhaps due to closures, prices increased at a lower rate in 2020. In 2021 consumer demand increased but with fewer outlets. Inflation grew in 21 with the biggest lift in Jan>Apr. Inflation was strong in 22 but prices got on a rollercoaster in Mar>Jun. They turned up Jul>Apr 23 but prices fell in May. Jun>Aug↑, Sep>Dec↓, Jan>Mar 24↑, Apr↓, May↑, June↓, Jul>Nov↑, Dec>Mar 25↓, Apr>May↑, a record!
  • Veterinary – Inflation has been consistent. Prices turned up in Mar 20 and grew through 21. A surge began in Dec 21 which put them above the overall CPI. In May 22 prices fell and stabilized in June causing them to fall below the CPI. However, prices rose again and despite some dips they have stayed above the CPI since July 22. In 23>24 prices grew Jan>May, leveled Jun/Jul, fell Aug, grew Sep>Dec, fell Jan 24, grew Feb>May, fell Jun>Jul, then grew Aug>May 25.
  • Total Pet – Petflation is a sum of the segments. In Dec 21 the price surge began. In Mar>Jun 22 the segments had ups & downs, but Petflation grew again from Jul>Nov. It slowed in Dec, grew Jan>May 23 (peak), fell Jun>Aug, grew Sep/Oct, then fell in Nov. In December prices turned up and grew through Mar 24 to a record high. Prices fell in April, rose May>Jun, fell Jul>Sep, rose Oct>Nov, fell in Dec, rose Jan>Feb, fell Mar, then set records in Apr>May.

Next, we’ll turn our attention to the Year Over Year inflation rate change for May and compare it to last month, last year and to previous years. We will also show total inflation from 21>25 & 19>25. Petflation rose from 1.9% to 2.2% but it is still below the National inflation rate (only by -8.3%). The chart will allow you to compare the inflation rates of 24>25 to 23>24 and other years but also see how much of the total inflation since 2019 came from the current pricing surge. We’ve included some human categories to put the pet numbers into perspective.

Overall, prices were up 0.2% from April and were +2.4% vs May 24, up from +2.3% last month. Grocery inflation grew to 2.2% from 2.0%. None had price decreases from last month, down from 2 in April & 3 in March. There were also 2 drops in Oct/Nov but 3 in Aug/Sep/Dec/Mar and 5 back in July. The national YOY monthly CPI rate of 2.4% is up from 2.3%, but 27.3% below the 23>24 rate and 72% less than 21>22. The 24>25 rate is above 23>24 for 4 – Groceries & 3 Pet – Supplies, Food & Total. In our 2021>2025 measurement you also can see that over 75% of the cumulative inflation since 2019 has occurred in 6 segments, 4 are Pet – all but Services, plus Groceries & the CPI. Except for Pet & Vet Services, where prices have surged, Service Segments have generally had higher inflation rates so there was a smaller pricing lift in the recent surge. Pet Products have a very different pattern. The 21>25 inflation surge actually provided 102% of their overall inflation since 2019. This happened because Pet Products prices in 2021 were starting to recover from a deflationary period. Services expenditures account for 63.8% of the National CPI so they are very influential. Their current CPI is +3.7% while the CPI for Commodities is -0.1%. This shows that Services are driving all of the current 2.4% inflation. The situation in Pet is similar but products have a bigger share of $. Petflation is 2.2%. The combined CPI for the Service Segments is 4.9%, while the Pet Products CPI is 0.2%.

  • U.S. CPI– Prices are +0.2% from Apr. The YOY increase is 2.4%, up from 2.3%. It peaked at +9.1% back in June 2022. The targeted inflation rate is <2% so we are still 20+% higher than the target. The Apr/May lifts follow Feb/Mar drops, 4 straight lifts and 6 consecutive drops from Apr>Sep 24. The current rate is below 23>24 but the 21>25 rate is still +19.4%, 76.1% of the total inflation since 2019. The Inflation surge took off in April 2021, +4.2%, up from 2.6%.
  • Pet Food– Prices are +0.01% vs Apr and -0.5% vs May 24. Deflation slowed from -0.6% in Apr. However, they are still far below the Food at Home inflation rate of +2.2%. The YOY Pet Food CPI has now deflated in 14 of the last 15 months. The 2021>2025 inflation surge has generated 99.1% of the 22.4% inflation since 2019. Inflation began for Pet Food in June 2021, +0.9%, after 12 straight deflationary months.
  • Food at Home – Prices are +0.2% from Apr, and the YOY increase rose to 2.2% from 2.0%. This is still radically lower than Jul>Sep 2022 when it exceeded 13%. The 29.1% Inflation for this category since 2019 is 14% more than the national CPI but only in 4th place behind 3 Services expenditures (2 Pet). 76.6% of the inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25. This is about the same as the CPI, but we should note that Grocery prices began inflating in 2020>21 then the rate accelerated. It appears that the pandemic supply chain issues in Food which contributed to higher prices started early and foreshadowed problems in other categories and the overall CPI surge.
  • Pets & Supplies– Prices were +0.5 from Apr but inflation slowed to 1.7% from 1.9%. They still have the lowest rate vs 2019. Prices were deflated for much of 20>21. As a result, the 2021>25 inflation surge accounted for 115% of the total price increase since 2019. Prices set a record in October 2022 then deflated. 3 lifts pushed them to a record high in Feb 23. Prices fell March, rose Apr/May, fell Jun>Aug, grew Sep/Oct, fell Nov, grew Dec>Feb 24, fell Mar/Apr, rose May/Jun, fell July, rose Aug, fell Sep/Oct, rose Nov/Dec, fell Jan/Feb 25, then rose Mar>May. (record high)
  • Veterinary Services– Prices are +0.5% from Apr and their YOY CPI vs 24 grew to +5.6% from +5.3%. They returned to #1 in inflation vs 24 and are still the leader since 2019 with +47.4% and since 2021, +35.4%. For Veterinary, high annual inflation is the norm. However, the rate has increased during the current surge, especially since 23. They have the highest rate in 25, and 75% of the cumulative inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25.
  • Medical Services – Prices turned sharply up at the start of the pandemic but then inflation slowed and fell to a low rate in 20>21. Prices were up +0.1% from Apr, but inflation vs 24 slowed to +3.0% from +3.1%. Medical Services are not a big part of the current surge as only 55.7% of the 18.5%, 2019>25 increase happened from 21>25.
  • Pet Services – Inflation slowed in 2020 but began to grow in 21. In 24 prices surged Jan>Mar, fell in April, rose in May, fell in June, rose Jul>Nov, fell Dec>Mar 25 to 3.9%, then grew to 5.4% in Apr, but fell to 4.9% in May. They are now #2 in YOY inflation vs 24 and vs 21 & 19. 74.2% of their total 19>25 inflation is from 21>25. In Dec 23, it was 49%.
  • Haircuts/Other Personal Services – Prices are +0.5% from Apr and +3.9% from May 24. 13 of the last 17 months have been 4.0+%. Inflation has been pretty consistent. 66.6% of the 19>25 inflation happened 21>25.
  • Total Pet– Petflation rose to 2.2% from 1.9%. Only Food & Veterinary had higher rates but all, but food reached a record high price in May. 2.2% is 37.5% more than the 23>24 rate but 8.3% below the U.S. CPI. Plus, 2.2% is 29% below the average May Pet rate since 1997. May prices rose 5%, driven by all segments. A Apr>May decrease has happened only 5 times since 1997 (avg Chge: +0.2%, 60% less than 2025). The Pet CPI rose from 1.9% to 2.2% a 15.8% increase. A big factor in the 25 CPI lift was that prices only rose 0.15% in Apr>May 24, compared to 0.5% in 25. In 2025, we continue to move towards more normal spending patterns.

Now, let’s look at the YTD numbers.

The 24>25 rate is lower than 23>24 for all but Medical Services, Pet Supplies, Groceries & Haircuts. The 22>23 inflation rate was the highest for all pet categories but Supplies. 21>22 has the highest rate for Pet Supplies, Groceries, Haircuts and the National CPI. The average national inflation in the 6 years since 2019 is 3.9%. Only 3 of the categories are below that rate – Medical Services (2.9%), Pet Supplies (1.9%) and Pet Food (3.6%). It is no surprise that Veterinary Services has the highest average rate (6.6%), but all 4 other categories are +4.3% or higher.

  • U.S. CPI – The 24>25 rate is 2.6%, down 21% from 23>24, but it is down 51% from 22>23, 68.3% less than 21>22 and 33.3% below the average increase from 2019>2025. However, it’s still 68% more than the average increase from 2018>20. 80% of the 25.9% inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25. Inflation is a problem that started recently.
  • Pet Food – Ytd prices are still deflating, -0.5%, the same as Apr, but up from -1.1% in Jan. That’s a big change from 1.6% in 23>24, 14.6% in 22>23 and even the 1.9% 18>20 average. It’s even below the deflation in 20>21. Pet Food has the highest 22>23 rate but is only #5 in the 21>25 rates. Deflation in the 1st half of 2021 kept YTD prices low then they surged in 22 and especially in 23. 93% of the inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25.
  • Food at Home – The inflation rate is up from 23>24 but at 2.1%, it is down 75% from 22>23, 79% from 21>22 and even 16% less than 20>21. However, it is still 83% more than the average rate from 2018>20. It is only in 4th place for the highest inflation since 2019 but still beat the U.S. CPI by 12%. You can see the impact of supply chain issues on the Grocery category as 79% of the inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25.
  • Pets & Pet Supplies – A true roller coaster, prices rose Jan>Feb 24, fell Mar>Apr, rose May>Jun, fell July, rose Aug, fell Sep>Oct, rose Nov>Dec, fell Jan>Feb 25, then rose Mar>Apr. Prices are again inflating vs 24, but Supplies have the lowest inflation since 2019. The biggest lifts since 2019 were in 22 & 23. The 2021 deflation created an unusual situation. Prices are up 12.0% from 2019 but 113% of this lift happened from 21>25. Prices are up 13.6% from their 2021 “bottom”.
  • Veterinary Services – Inflation was high in 2019 and steadily grew until it took off in late 2022. The rate may have peaked in 2023, but it is still going strong in 2025, +6.3%, the highest on the chart. They are also #1 in inflation since 2019 and since 2021. At +6.6%, they have the highest average inflation rate since 2019. It is 1.7 times higher than the National Average but 2.3 times higher than the Inflation average for Medical Services. Strong Inflation is the norm in Veterinary Services.
  • Medical Services – Prices went up significantly at the beginning of the pandemic, but inflation slowed in 2021. In 2025 it is 3.0%, just slightly above the 2.9% 2019>25 average rate. However, it is being measured against 2024 which is 1 of only 2 years since 2019 with an inflation rate below 2.0%.
  • Pet Services – After falling in late 2023, prices surged in 2024, then fell in 2025 until an Apr>May resurgence. The 24>25 inflation rate of 4.8% is 2nd, behind Veterinary on the chart. It is only their 4th highest rate but it is 1.5 times higher than their 2018>21 average rate. Pet Services is also 2nd in both 19>25 and 21>25 inflation.
  • Haircuts & Personal Services – The services segments, essential & non-essential, were hit hardest by the pandemic. The industry responded by raising prices. 2025 inflation is 4.3%, 23% below its 21 peak, but 39% above the 18>20 average. Consumers are paying over 30% more than in 2019, which usually reduces the purchase frequency.
  • Total Pet – 2025 Petflation is 2.0%, up from 1.9% in April but 33% less than 23>24. It’s even 12% lower than the 2018>21 avg rate. Plus, it is 23% below the CPI. Petflation is still at its lowest rate since early 2021. Until April, this was driven by deflation in Pet Products and lower inflation in Services. In Apr>May, Pet prices generally turned up.

The Petflation recovery paused in Aug, came back Sep>Oct, paused in Nov, resumed in Dec>Jan, paused in Feb, restarted in Mar, but may have paused again in Apr>May. We tend to focus on monthly YOY inflation while ignoring one critical fact. Inflation is cumulative. Pet prices are 23.9% above 2021 and 28.4% higher than 2019. Those are big lifts. In fact, current May Pet prices for all but Food are the highest in history. Note: Food is within 1.5% of its record high. Only Supplies prices (+12.2%) are less than 22.4% higher than 2019. Since price/value is the biggest driver in consumer spending, inflation will affect the Pet Industry. Services will be the least impacted as it is driven by high income CUs. Veterinary will see a reduction in visit frequency. The product segments will see a more complex reaction. Supplies will likely see a reduction in purchase frequency and some Pet Parents may even downgrade their Pet Food. Products will see a strong movement to online purchasing and private label. At SZ 24 and GPE 24 & 25, a huge number of exhibitors actively offered their OEM services. We’ll likely see the same at SZ 25. Strong, cumulative inflation has a widespread impact, but tarifflation can hit even harder. Supplies would likely be the most impacted by new high tariffs. We’ll see…

Petflation 2025 – April Update: Jumps Up to +1.9% vs Last Year

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The monthly Consumer Price Index peaked back in June 2022 at 9.1% then began to slow until it turned up in Jul/Aug 2023. Prices fell in Oct>Dec 23, then turned up Jan>Oct 24 but fell -0.1% in Nov. However, they have now risen for 5 straight months, including a 0.3% lift in April to a new record high. However, the CPI vs 24 fell to +2.3% from +2.4% in March. Grocery prices dropped -0.3% from March and YOY inflation slowed from 2.4% to 2.0%. Even minor price changes can affect consumer pet spending, especially in the discretionary pet segments, so we will continue to publish monthly reports to track petflation as it evolves in the market.

Petflation was +4.1% in Dec 21 while the overall CPI was +7.0%. The gap narrowed as Petflation accelerated and reached 96.7% of the national rate in June 22. National inflation has slowed considerably since then, but Petflation generally increased until June 23. It passed the CPI in July 22 but fell below it from Apr>Jul 24. It exceeded the CPI in August, fell below in Sep>Oct, rose above in November, then fell below in Dec>Apr 25. As we drill into the data, all reports will include:

  • A rolling 24 month tracking of the CPI for all pet segments and the national CPI. The base number will be pre-pandemic December 2019 in this and future reports, which will facilitate comparisons.
  • Monthly comparisons of 25 vs 24 which will include Pet Segments and relevant Human spending categories. Plus
    1. CPI change from the previous month.
    2. Inflation changes for recent years (23>24, 22>23, 21>22, 20>21, 19>20, 18>19)
    3. Total Inflation for the current month in 2025 vs 2019 and vs 2021 to see the full inflation surge.
    4. Average annual Year Over Year inflation rate from 2019 to 2025
  • YTD comparisons
    1. YTD numbers for the monthly comparisons #2>4 above

In our first graph we will track the monthly change in prices for the 24 months from Apr 23 to Apr 25. We will use December 2019 as a base number so we can track the progress from pre-pandemic times through an eventual recovery. This chart is designed to give you a visual image of the flow of pricing. You can see the similarities and differences in segment patterns and compare them to the overall U.S. CPI. The year-end numbers from 12 and 24 months earlier are included. We also included and highlighted (pink) the cumulative price peak for each segment. In April, Pet prices were up 0.4% from March. Only Food (-0.1%) was down while Vet (+0.2%), Services (+1.3%) & Supplies (+1.2%) were up.

In April 23, the CPI was +18.1% and Pet was +21.6%. The Services segments inflated after mid-20, while Product inflation stayed low until late 21. In 22, Food prices grew but the others had mixed patterns until July 22, when all rose. In Aug>Oct Petflation took off. In Nov>Dec, Services & Food inflated while Vet & Supplies prices stabilized. In Jan>Apr 23, prices grew every month for all segments except for 1 Supplies dip. In May Product prices grew while Services slowed. In Jun/Jul this reversed. In Aug all but Services fell. In Sep/Oct this flipped. In Nov, all but Food & Vet fell. In Dec, Supplies & Veterinary  drove prices up. In Jan>Mar 24 prices grew. In April, prices in all but Veterinary fell. In May, all but Food grew. In June, Products drove a lift. In July, all but Services fell. In August, Food drove a drop. In September, Products fueled a drop. Services drove a lift in October. In November, all were up. After the drop in March 25, all but Food reached record highs in April.

  • U.S. CPI – The inflation rate was below 2% through 2020. It turned up in January 21 and continued to grow until flattening out in Jul>Dec 22. Prices rose Jan>Sep 23, fell Oct>Dec, rose Jan>Oct 24, fell Nov, then rose Dec>Apr to a record high but 27.4% of the increase since Dec 19 happened from Jan>Jun 22 – 9.4% of the time.
  • Pet Food – Prices were at the Dec 19 level Apr 20>Sep 21. They grew & peaked May 23. Jun>Aug ↓, Sep>Nov↑, Dec>Feb↓, Mar↑, Apr>May↓, June↑, Jul>Oct↓, Nov↑, Dec↓, Jan>Feb↑, Mar>Apr↓. 99% of the 19>25 lift occurred in 22/23.
  • Pet Supplies – Supplies prices were high in December 19 due to tariffs. They had a deflated rollercoaster ride until mid-21 when they returned to Dec 19 prices & essentially stayed there until 22. They turned up in Jan and hit a record high. They plateaued Feb>May, grew in June, flattened in July, then turned up in Aug>Oct to a new record. Prices stabilized in Nov>Dec but grew in Jan>Feb 23. They fell in Mar, but the rollercoaster continued with Dec>Feb 24↑, Mar/Apr↓, May/Jun↑, July↓, Aug↑, Sep/Oct↓, Nov/Dec↑, Jan>Feb 25↓, Mar>Apr↑ to a new record high.
  • Pet Services– Inflation is usually 2+%. Perhaps due to closures, prices increased at a lower rate in 2020. In 2021 consumer demand increased but with fewer outlets. Inflation grew in 21 with the biggest lift in Jan>Apr. Inflation was strong in 22 but prices got on a rollercoaster in Mar>Jun. They turned up Jul>Apr 23 but prices fell in May. Jun>Aug↑, Sep>Dec↓, Jan>Mar 24↑, Apr↓, May↑, June↓, Jul>Nov↑, Dec>Mar 25↓, Apr↑ to a new record high!
  • Veterinary – Inflation has been consistent. Prices turned up in March 20 and grew through 21. A surge began in December 21 which put them above the overall CPI. In May 22 prices fell and stabilized in June causing them to fall below the CPI. However, prices rose again and despite some dips they have stayed above the CPI since July 22. In 23>24 prices grew Jan>May, leveled Jun/Jul, fell Aug, grew Sep>Dec, fell Jan 24, grew Feb>May, fell Jun>Jul, grew Aug>Apr 25.
  • Total Pet – Petflation is a sum of the segments. In December 21 the price surge began. In Mar>Jun 22 the segments had ups & downs, but Petflation grew again from Jul>Nov. It slowed in December, grew Jan>May 23 (peak), fell Jun>Aug, grew Sep/Oct, then fell in November. In December prices turned up and grew through Mar 24 to a record high. Prices fell in April, rose May>Jun, fell Jul>Sep, rose Oct>Nov, fell in Dec, rose Jan>Feb 25, fell in Mar, then rose to a record high in April.

Next, we’ll turn our attention to the Year Over Year inflation rate change for April and compare it to last month, last year and to previous years. We will also show total inflation from 21>25 & 19>25. In April, Petflation rose from 1.3% to 1.9% but it is still below the National inflation rate (by -17.4%). The chart will allow you to compare the inflation rates of 24>25 to 23>24 and other years but also see how much of the total inflation since 2019 came from the current pricing surge. We’ve included some human categories to put the pet numbers into perspective.

Overall, prices were up 0.3% from March and were +2.3% vs Apr 24, down from +2.4% last month. Grocery inflation slowed to 2.0%, down from 2.4%. Only 2 had price decreases from last month, down from 3 in March. Both were food related – Human & Pet. There were also 2 drops in Oct/Nov but 3 in Aug/Sep/Dec/Mar and 5 back in July. The national YOY monthly CPI rate of 2.3% is down from 2.4%, 32.4% below the 23>24 rate and 72% less than 21>22. The 24>25 rate is above 23>24 for 5 – Groceries, Medical Services & 3 Pet – Supplies, Services & Total. In our 2021>2025 measurement you also can see that over 75% of the cumulative inflation since 2019 has occurred in 6 segments, 4 are Pet – all but Services, plus Groceries & the National CPI. Except for Pet & Vet Services, where prices have surged, Service Segments have generally had higher inflation rates so there was a smaller pricing lift in the recent surge. Pet Products have a very different pattern. The 21>25 inflation surge provided 99% of their overall inflation since 2019. This happened because Pet Products prices in 2021 were still recovering from a deflationary period. Services expenditures account for 63.8% of the National CPI so they are very influential. Their current CPI is +3.7% while the CPI for Commodities is -0.2%. This shows that Services are driving all of the current 2.3% inflation. The situation in Pet is similar but products have a bigger share of Total $. Petflation is 1.9%. The combined CPI for the Service Segments is 4.6%, while the Pet Products CPI is -0.2%.

  • U.S. CPI– Prices are +0.3% from Mar. The YOY increase is 2.3%, down from 2.4%. It peaked at +9.1% back in June 2022. The targeted inflation rate is <2% so we are still 15+% higher than the target. The April lift follows Feb/Mar drops, 4 straight lifts and 6 consecutive drops from Apr>Sep 24. The current rate is below 23>24 but the 21>25 rate is still +20.1%, 78.8% of the total inflation since 2019. The Inflation surge took off in April 2021, +4.2%, up from 2.6% in March 21.
  • Pet Food– Prices are -0.1% vs March and -0.6% vs Apr 24. Deflation slowed from -0.9% in March. However, they are still far below the Food at Home inflation rate of +2.0%. The YOY Pet Food CPI has now deflated in 13 of the last 14 months. The 2021>2025 inflation surge has generated 94.4% of the 23.1% inflation since 2019. Inflation began for Pet Food in June 2021, +0.9%, after 12 straight deflationary months.
  • Food at Home – Prices are -0.3% from March, and the YOY increase slowed to 2.0% from 2.4%. This is radically lower than Jul>Sep 2022 when it exceeded 13%. The 28.9% Inflation for this category since 2019 is 13% more than the national CPI but only in 4th place behind 3 Services expenditures (2 Pet). 77.5% of the inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25. This is about the same as the CPI, but we should note that Grocery prices began inflating in 2020>21 then the rate accelerated. It appears that the pandemic supply chain issues in Food which contributed to higher prices started early and foreshadowed problems in other categories and the overall CPI surge.
  • Pets & Supplies– Prices were +1.2 from March and deflation, -0.6%, flipped to inflation, +1.9%. However, they still have the lowest rate vs 2019. Prices were deflated for much of 20>21. As a result, the 2021>25 inflation surge accounted for 109% of the total price increase since 2019. Prices set a record in October 2022 then deflated. 3 lifts pushed them to a record high in Feb 23. Prices fell in March, rose Apr/May, fell Jun>Aug, grew Sep/Oct, fell in November, grew Dec>Feb, fell Mar/Apr, rose May/Jun, fell in July, rose in August, fell Sep/Oct, rose Nov/Dec, fell Jan/Feb, then rose Mar/Apr to a new record high.
  • Veterinary Services– Prices are +0.2% from March, but their YOY CPI vs 24 slowed to +5.3% from +5.9%. They fell to #2 in inflation vs 24 but are still the leader since 2019 with +47.3% and since 2021, +36.4%. For Veterinary, high annual inflation is the norm. However, the rate has increased during the current surge, especially since 23. They have the 2nd highest rate in 25, and 77% of the cumulative inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25.
  • Medical Services – Prices turned sharply up at the start of the pandemic but then inflation slowed and fell to a low rate in 20>21. Prices were up +0.4% from March and inflation vs 24 rose to +3.1% from +3.0%. Medical Services are not a big part of the current surge as only 52.9% of the 18.9%, 2019>25 increase happened from 21>25.
  • Pet Services – Inflation slowed in 2020 but began to grow in 21. In 24 prices surged Jan>Mar, fell in April, rose in May, fell in June, rose Jul>Nov, fell Dec>Mar 25 to 3.9%, then spiked at 5.4% in April. They are now #1 in YOY inflation vs 24 and #2 vs 21 & 19. 70.3% of their total 19>25 inflation is from 21>25. In Dec 23, it was 49%.
  • Haircuts/Other Personal Services – Prices are +0.1% from March and +3.6% from Apr 24. 13 of the last 16 months have been 4.0+%. Inflation has been pretty consistent as 63.7% of the 19>25 inflation happened 21>25.
  • Total Pet– Petflation rose to 1.9% from 1.3%. All segments but Veterinary had a higher rate and all, but Food reached a record high price. 1.9% is 12% more than the 23>24 rate but 17% below the U.S. CPI. Plus, 1.9% is 39% below the average April Pet rate since 1997. April prices rose 0.4%, driven by all segments but Food. A Mar>Apr decrease has happened only 4 times since 1997 (avg Chge: +0.4%, the same as 2025). Jumping from 1.3% to 1.9% is a 46% increase but a big factor in the 25 CPI lift was that prices fell -0.2% in Mar>Apr 24, a rare occurrence. In 2025, we continue to move towards more normal spending patterns.

Now, let’s look at the YTD numbers.

The 24>25 rate is lower than 23>24 for all but Medical Services, Pet Services, Groceries & Haircuts. The 22>23 inflation rate was the highest for Groceries (tied with 21>22) and all pet categories but Supplies. 21>22 has the highest rate for Pet Supplies, Groceries (tie) and the National CPI. The average national inflation in the 6 years since 2019 is 3.9%. Only 3 of the categories are below that rate – Medical Services (2.9%), Pet Supplies (1.9%) and Pet Food (3.7%). It is no surprise that Veterinary Services has the highest average rate (6.6%), but all 4 other categories are +4.3% or higher.

  • U.S. CPI – The 24>25 rate is 2.6%, down 21% from 23>24, but it is down 54% from 22>23, 67.5% less than 21>22 and 33.3% below the average increase from 2019>2025. However, it’s still 53% more than the average increase from 2018>20. 81% of the 25.9% inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25. Inflation is a problem that started recently.
  • Pet Food – Ytd prices are still deflating, -0.5%, the same as March, but up considerably from -1.1% in January. That’s a big change from 2.2% in 23>24, 14.8% in 22>23 and even the 1.9% 18>20 average. However, it’s the same as the deflation in 20>21. Pet Food has the highest 22>23 rate but is only #5 in the 21>25 rates. Deflation in the 1st half of 2021 kept YTD prices low then they surged in 22 and especially in 23. 92% of the inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25.
  • Food at Home – The inflation rate is up from 23>24 but at 2.1%, it is down 77% from 22>23 and 21>22 and 28% less than 20>21. However, it is still 56% more than the average rate from 2018>20. It is only in 4th place for the highest inflation since 2019 but still beat the U.S. CPI by 11%. You can see the impact of supply chain issues on the Grocery category as 80% of the inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25.
  • Pets & Pet Supplies – A true roller coaster, prices rose Jan>Feb 24, fell Mar>Apr, rose May>Jun, fell in July, rose in August, fell Sep>Oct, rose Nov>Dec, fell Jan>Feb 25, then rose Mar>Apr. Prices are again inflating vs 24, but Supplies have the lowest inflation since 2019. The biggest lifts since 2019 were in 22 & 23. The 2021 deflation created an unusual situation. Prices are up 11.9% from 2019 but 113% of this lift happened from 21>25. Prices are up 13.4% from their 2021 “bottom”.
  • Veterinary Services – Inflation was high in 2019 and steadily grew until it took off in late 2022. The rate may have peaked in 2023, but it is still going strong in 2025, +6.5%, the highest on the chart. They are also #1 in inflation since 2019 and since 2021. At +6.6%, they have the highest average inflation rate since 2019. It is 1.7 times higher than the National Average but 2.3 times higher than the Inflation average for Medical Services. Strong Inflation is the norm in Veterinary Services.
  • Medical Services – Prices went up significantly at the beginning of the pandemic, but inflation slowed in 2021. In 2025 it is 3.0%, just slightly above the 2.9% 2019>25 average rate. However, it is being measured against 2024 when prices had the lowest inflation rate of any year, at least since 2019. (24: +1.61% beat 23: +1.64%)
  • Pet Services – After falling in late 2023, prices surged in 2024, then fell in 2025 until an April resurgence. The 24>25 inflation rate of 4.8% is 2nd, behind Veterinary on the chart. It is tied with 23>24 and only their 3rd highest rate since 2019 but it is 1.4 times higher than their 2018>21 average rate. Pet Services is also 2nd in both 19>25 and 21>25 inflation.
  • Haircuts & Personal Services – The services segments, essential & non-essential, were hit hardest by the pandemic. The industry responded by raising prices. 2025 inflation is 4.4%, 24% below its 21 peak, but 38% above the 18>20 average. Consumers are paying over 30% more than in 2019, which usually reduces the purchase frequency.
  • Total Pet – 2025 Petflation is 1.9%, the same as March but 44% less than 23>24. It’s even 17% lower than the 2018>21 avg rate. Plus, it is 27% below the CPI. Petflation is still at its lowest rate since early 2021. Until April, this was driven by deflation in Pet Products and lower inflation in Services. In April, Pet prices generally turned up.

The Petflation recovery paused in August, came back Sep>Oct, paused in November, resumed in Dec>Jan, paused in February, restarted in March, but may have paused again in April. We tend to focus on monthly YOY inflation while ignoring one critical fact. Inflation is cumulative. Pet prices are 23.7% above 2021 and 28.5% higher than 2019. Those are big lifts. In fact, current April Pet prices for all but Food are the highest in history. Note: Food is within 1.5% of its record high set in May 2023. Only Supplies prices (+12.5%) are less than 23.1% higher than 2019. Since price/value is the biggest driver in consumer spending, inflation will affect the Pet Industry. Services will be the least impacted as it is driven by high income CUs. Veterinary will see a reduction in visit frequency. The product segments will see a more complex reaction. Supplies will likely see a reduction in purchase frequency and some Pet Parents may even downgrade their Pet Food. Products will see a strong movement to online purchasing and private label. At SZ 24 and GPE 24 & 25, a huge number of exhibitors actively offered their OEM services. We’ll likely see the same at SZ 25. Strong, cumulative inflation has a widespread impact, but tarifflation can hit even harder. Supplies would likely be most impacted by new high tariffs. We’ll see what happens.

 

Petflation 2025 – March Update: Plummets to +1.3% vs Last Year

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The monthly Consumer Price Index peaked back in June 2022 at 9.1% then began to slow until it turned up in Jul/Aug 2023. Prices fell in Oct>Dec 23, then turned up Jan>Oct 24 but fell -0.1% in Nov. However, they have now risen for 4 straight months, including a 0.2% lift in March to a new record high. However, the CPI vs 2024 fell to +2.4% from +2.8% in February. Grocery prices rose 0.5% from February and YOY inflation rose from 1.9% to 2.4%, the 1st time that it has been over 2.0% since Oct 23. Even minor price changes can affect consumer pet spending, especially in the discretionary pet segments, so we will continue to publish monthly reports to track petflation as it evolves in the market.

Petflation was +4.1% in Dec 21 while the overall CPI was +7.0%. The gap narrowed as Petflation accelerated and reached 96.7% of the national rate in June 22. National inflation has slowed considerably since then, but Petflation generally increased until June 23. It passed the CPI in July 22 but fell below it from Apr>Jul 24. It exceeded the CPI in August, fell below in Sep>Oct, rose above in Nov, then fell below in Dec>Mar 25. As we drill into the data, all reports will include:

  • A rolling 24 month tracking of the CPI for all pet segments and the national CPI. The base number will be pre-pandemic December 2019 in this and future reports, which will facilitate comparisons.
  • Monthly comparisons of 25 vs 24 which will include Pet Segments and relevant Human spending categories. Plus
    1. CPI change from the previous month.
    2. Inflation changes for recent years (23>24, 22>23, 21>22, 20>21, 19>20, 18>19)
    3. Total Inflation for the current month in 2025 vs 2019 and vs 2021 to see the full inflation surge.
    4. Average annual Year Over Year inflation rate from 2019 to 2025
  • YTD comparisons
    1. YTD numbers for the monthly comparisons #2>4 above

In our first graph we will track the monthly change in prices for the 24 months from Mar 23 to Mar 25. We will use December 2019 as a base number so we can track the progress from pre-pandemic times through an eventual recovery. This chart is designed to give you a visual image of the flow of pricing. You can see the similarities and differences in segment patterns and compare them to the overall U.S. CPI. The year-end numbers from 12 and 24 months earlier are included. We also included and highlighted (pink) the cumulative price peak for each segment. In Mar, Pet prices were down -0.1% from Feb. Food (-0.5%) & Services (-0.1%) were down while Vet (+0.5%) & Supplies (+0.1%) were up.

In Mar 23, the CPI was +17.5% and Pet was +19.4%. The Services segments inflated after mid-20, while Product inflation stayed low until late 21. In 22, Food prices grew but the others had mixed patterns until July 22, when all rose. In Aug>Oct Petflation took off. In Nov>Dec, Services & Food inflated while Vet & Supplies prices stabilized. In Jan>Apr 23, prices grew every month for all segments except for 1 Supplies dip. In May Product prices grew while Services slowed. In Jun/Jul this reversed. In Aug all but Services fell. In Sep/Oct this flipped. In Nov, all but Food & Vet fell. In Dec, Supp. & Vet  drove prices up. In Jan>Mar 24 prices grew. In April, prices in all but Vet fell. In May, all but Food grew. In June, Products drove a lift. In July, all but Services fell. In Aug, Food drove a drop. In Sep, Products fueled a drop. Services drove a lift in Oct. In Nov, all were up. In Dec & now Mar 25, Total Pet fell slightly. after hitting a record high in Feb.

  • U.S. CPI – The inflation rate was below 2% through 2020. It turned up in January 21 and continued to grow until flattening out in Jul>Dec 22. Prices rose Jan>Sep 23, fell Oct>Dec, rose Jan>Oct 24, fell Nov, then rose Dec>Mar to a record high but 27.9% of the increase since Dec 19 happened from Jan>Jun 22 – 9.5% of the time.
  • Pet Food – Prices were at the Dec 19 level Apr 20>Sep 21. They grew & peaked May 23. Jun>Aug ↓, Sep>Nov↑, Dec>Feb 24↓, Mar↑, Apr>May↓, June↑, Jul>Oct↓, Nov↑, Dec↓, Jan>Feb 25↑, Mar↓. 99% of the lift was in 22/23.
  • Pet Supplies – Supplies prices were high in Dec 19 due to tariffs. They had a deflated rollercoaster ride until mid-21 when they returned to Dec 19 prices & essentially stayed there until 22. They turned up in Jan and hit a record high. They plateaued Feb>May, grew in June, flattened in July, then turned up in Aug>Oct to a new record. Prices stabilized in Nov>Dec but grew in Jan>Feb 23. They fell in Mar but set a new record in May. The rollercoaster continued with Dec>Feb 24↑, Mar/Apr↓, May/Jun↑, July↓, Aug↑, Sep/Oct↓ & Nov/Dec↑, Jan>Feb 25↓, Mar↑.
  • Pet Services– Inflation is usually 2+%. Perhaps due to closures, prices increased at a lower rate in 2020. In 2021 consumer demand increased but with fewer outlets. Inflation grew in 21 with the biggest lift in Jan>Apr. Inflation was strong in 22 but prices got on a rollercoaster in Mar>Jun. They turned up Jul>Mar 23 but the rate slowed in April and prices fell in May. Jun>Aug↑, Sep>Dec↓, Jan>Mar 24↑, Apr↓, May↑, June↓, Jul>Nov↑, Dec>Mar 25↓.
  • Veterinary – Inflation has been consistent. Prices turned up in Mar 20 and grew through 21. A surge began in Dec 21 which put them above the overall CPI. In May 22 prices fell and stabilized in June causing them to fall below the CPI. However, prices rose again and despite some dips they have stayed above the CPI since July 22. In 23>24 prices grew Jan>May, leveled Jun/Jul, fell Aug, grew Sep>Dec, fell Jan 24, grew Feb>May, fell Jun>Jul, grew Aug>Mar 25
  • Total Pet – Petflation is a sum of the segments. In Dec 21 the price surge began. In Mar>Jun 22 the segments had ups & downs, but Petflation grew again from Jul>Nov. It slowed in Dec, grew Jan>May 23 (peak), fell Jun>Aug, grew Sep/Oct, then fell in Nov. In December prices turned up and grew through Mar 24 to a record high. Prices fell in April, rose May>Jun (record), fell Jul>Sep, rose Oct>Nov, fell in Dec, rose Jan>Feb 25 (record), then fell in March.

Next, we’ll turn our attention to the Year Over Year inflation rate change for March and compare it to last month, last year and to previous years. We will also show total inflation from 21>25 & 19>25. Petflation fell from 2.4% to 1.3% and it is now significantly below the National inflation rate (by -45.8%). The chart will allow you to compare the inflation rates of 24>25 to 23>24 and other years but also see how much of the total inflation since 2019 came from the current pricing surge. We’ve included some human categories to put the pet numbers into perspective.

Overall, prices were up 0.2% from February and were +2.4% vs Mar 24, down from +2.8% last month. Grocery inflation rose to 2.4%, up from 1.9%. 3 had price decreases from last month, up from 2 in Jan/Feb. All were Pet: Supplies, Services & Total. There were 2 drops in Oct/Nov but 3 in Aug/Sep/Dec and 5 in July. The national YOY monthly CPI rate of 2.4% is down from 2.8% and is 31.4% below the 23>24 rate and 72% less than 21>22. The 24>25 rate is above 23>24 for 3 – Groceries, Medical Services & Haircuts. In our 2021>2025 measurement you also can see that over 75% of the cumulative inflation since 2019 has occurred in 6 segments, 4 are Pet – all but Services, plus Groceries & the CPI. Except for Pet & Vet Services, where prices have surged, Service Segments have generally had higher inflation rates so there was a smaller pricing lift in the recent surge. Pet Products have a very different pattern. The 21>25 inflation surge provided 99% of their overall inflation since 2019. This happened because Pet Products prices in 2021 were still recovering from a deflationary period. Services expenditures account for 63.8% of the National CPI so they are very influential. Their current CPI is +3.7% while the CPI for Commodities is 0.05%. This clearly shows that Services are driving almost all of the current 2.4% inflation. The situation in Pet is even worse. Petflation is currently 1.3%. The combined CPI for the 2 Service Segments is 4.7%, while the Pet Products CPI is -1.2%.

  • U.S. CPI– Prices are +0.2% from Feb. The YOY increase is 2.4%, down from 2.8%. It peaked at +9.1% back in June 2022. The targeted inflation rate is <2% so we are still 20+% higher than the target. The Feb/Mar drops  follow 4 straight lifts after 6 consecutive drops from Apr>Sep. The current rate is below 23>24 but the 21>25 rate is still +20.7%, 80.2% of the total inflation since 2019. The Inflation surge was just starting in March 2021, +2.6%
  • Pet Food– Prices are -0.5% vs Feb and -0.9% vs Mar 24, a big change from +0.4% in February. They are even farther below the Food at Home inflation rate of +2.4%. The YOY Pet Food CPI has now deflated in 12 of the last 13 months. The 2021>2025 inflation surge has generated 93.3% of the 23.8% inflation since 2019. Inflation began for Pet Food in June 2021, +0.9%, after 12 straight deflationary months.
  • Food at Home – Prices are up +0.5% from Feb, and the YOY increase rose to 2.4% from 1.9%. This is still radically lower than Jul>Sep 2022 when it exceeded 13%. The 29.0% Inflation for this category since 2019 is 12% more than the national CPI but only in 4th place behind 3 Services expenditures (2 Pet). 81.0% of the inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25. This is about the same as the CPI, but we should note that Grocery prices began inflating in 2020>21 then the rate accelerated. It appears that the pandemic supply chain issues in Food which contributed to higher prices started early and foreshadowed problems in other categories and the overall CPI surge.
  • Pets & Supplies– Prices were +0.1 from February and deflation slowed to -0.6% from -1.0%. They still have the lowest rate vs 2019. Prices were deflated for much of 20>21. As a result, the 2021>25 inflation surge accounted for 115% of the total price increase since 2019. Prices set a record in October 2022 then deflated. 3 increases pushed them to a record high in Feb 23. Prices fell in March, rose Apr/May, fell Jun>Aug, grew Sep>Oct, fell Nov, grew Dec>Feb, fell Mar/Apr, rose May>Jun (record), fell July, rose Aug, fell Sep/Oct, rose Nov/Dec, fell Jan/Feb, rose Mar.
  • Veterinary Services– Prices are +0.5% from Feb but their YOY CPI vs 24 fell to +5.9% from +8.1%. They are #1 in inflation vs 24 and still the leader since 2019 with +47.3% and since 2021, +36.3%. For Veterinary, high annual inflation is the norm. However, the rate has increased during the current surge, especially since 23. They have the highest rate in 25, and now 77% of the cumulative inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25.
  • Medical Services – Prices turned sharply up at the start of the pandemic but then inflation slowed and fell to a low rate in 20>21. Prices rose +0.6% from Feb, but inflation vs last year was stable at +3.0%. Medical Services are not a big part of the current surge as only 50.5% of the 18.6%, 2019>25 increase happened from 21>25.
  • Pet Services – Inflation slowed in 2020 but began to grow in 21. In 24 prices surged Jan>Mar, fell in April, rose in May, fell in June, rose Jul>Nov, then fell in Dec>Feb 25. Their rate has plummeted from 11.5% in Dec to 3.9% and they are only #3 in YOY inflation vs 24. 71.7% of their total 19>25 inflation is from 21>25. In Dec 23, it was 49%.
  • Haircuts/Other Personal Services – Prices are +0.1% from Feb and +4.7% from Mar 24. 13 of the last 15 months have been 4.0+%. Inflation has been pretty consistent. 64.0% of the 19>25 inflation happened 21>25.
  • Total Pet– Petflation fell to 1.3% from 2.4%. All segments but Supplies had a lower rate but they are actually deflating. It is 66% less than the 23>24 rate and 46% below the U.S. CPI. Plus, 1.3% is 58% below the 3.1% average March rate since 1997. March prices fell -0.1%, primarily driven by Food. A Feb>Mar decrease has happened only 5 times since 1997 (avg Chge: +0.3%). Another big factor in the CPI drop was that prices rose 1.0% in Feb>Mar 24. (3.3 times the avg chge) After a February pause, the long recovery appears to have restarted.

Now, let’s look at the YTD numbers.

The 24>25 rate is lower than 23>24 for all but Medical Services, Groceries & Haircuts. The 22>23 inflation rate was the highest for Groceries and all pet categories but Supplies & Vet. 21>22 has the highest rate for Pet Supplies and the National CPI. The average national inflation in the 6 years since 2019 is 3.9%. Only 3 of the categories are below that rate – Medical Services (2.8%), Pet Supplies (1.9%) and Pet Food (3.7%). It is no surprise that Veterinary Services has the highest average rate (6.6%), but all 4 other categories are +4.3% or higher.

  • U.S. CPI – The 24>25 rate is 2.7%, only down 16% from 23>24, but it is down 53% from 22>23, 66% less than 21>22 and 30.8% below the average increase from 2019>2025. However, it’s still 46% more than the average increase from 2018>2020. 81% of the 26.1% inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25. Inflation is a big problem that started recently.
  • Pet Food – Ytd prices are still deflated -0.5%, down from Feb, but up from -1.1% in Jan. That’s a big change from 3.0% in 23>24, 14.9% in 22>23 and the 2.0% 18>20 average. However, it is still higher than the -0.6% deflation in 20>21. Pet Food has the highest 22>23 rate but is only #5 in the 21>25 rates. Deflation in the 1st half of 2021 kept YTD prices low then they surged in 22 and especially in 23. 91% of the inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25.
  • Food at Home – The inflation rate is up from 23>24 but at 2.1%, it is down 79% from 22>23, 76% from 21>22 and 40% from 20>21. However, it is more than double the average rate from 2018>20. It is only in 4th place for the highest inflation since 2019 but still beat the U.S. CPI by 10%. You can see the impact of supply chain issues on the Grocery category as 81% of the inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25.
  • Pets & Pet Supplies – A true roller coaster, prices rose Jan>Feb 24, fell Mar>Apr, rose May>Jun, fell July, rose Aug, fell Sep>Oct, rose Nov>Dec, fell Jan>Feb, then rose Mar. Prices are deflating vs 24. Supplies have the lowest inflation since 2019. The biggest lifts since 2019 were in 22 & 23. The 2021 deflation created an unusual situation. Prices are up 11.7% from 2019 but 115% of this lift happened from 21>25. Prices are up 13.4% from their 2021 “bottom”.
  • Veterinary Services – Inflation was high in 2019 and steadily grew until it took off in late 2022. The rate may have peaked in 2023, but it is still going strong in 2025, +6.9%, the highest on the chart. They are also #1 in inflation since 2019 and since 2021. At +6.6%, they have the highest average inflation rate since 2019. It is 1.7 times higher than the National Average but 2.4 times higher than the Inflation average for Medical Services. Strong Inflation is the norm in Veterinary Services.
  • Medical Services – Prices went up significantly at the beginning of the pandemic, but inflation slowed in 2021. In 2025 it is 2.9%, just slightly above the 2.8% 2019>25 average rate. However, it is being measured against 2024 when prices had the lowest inflation rate of any year at least since 2019.
  • Pet Services – After falling in late 2023, prices surged in 2024, then fell in 2025. The 24>25 inflation rate of 4.6% is 3rd, behind Veterinary & Haircuts on the chart. It is only their 4th highest rate but is 1.5 times higher than their 2018>21 average rate. Pet Services is 2nd in both 19>25 and 21>25 inflation.
  • Haircuts & Personal Services – The services segments, essential & non-essential, were hit hardest by the pandemic. The industry responded by raising prices. 2025 inflation is 4.7%, 18% below its 21 peak, but 45% above the 18>20 average. Consumers are paying over 30% more than in 2019, which usually reduces the purchase frequency.
  • Total Pet – 2025 Petflation is 1.9%, down from 2.2% in Feb and it is 28% less than 22>23. It’s even 16% lower than the 2018>21 avg rate. Plus, it is 30% below the CPI. Petflation is now at its lowest rate since the 1st quarter of 2021. This was primarily driven by deflation in Pet Products and lower inflation in Services. Veterinary continues to reach new record highs but all segments, but Supplies had lower YOY rates in March….and Supplies is still deflating.

The Petflation recovery paused in Aug, came back Sep>Oct, paused in Nov, then resumed in Dec>Jan, paused in Feb, then restarted in Mar. We tend to focus on monthly YOY inflation while ignoring one critical fact. Inflation is cumulative. Pet prices are 23.7% above 2021 and 28.3% higher than 2019. Those are big lifts. In fact, current prices for Vet are at a record high and the other segments are within 2% of the highest in history. Only Supplies prices (+11.5%) are less than 24.6% higher than 2019. Since price/value is the biggest driver in consumer spending, inflation will affect the Pet Industry. Services will be the least impacted as it is driven by high income CUs. Veterinary will see a reduction in visit frequency. The product segments will see a more complex reaction. Supplies will likely see a reduction in purchase frequency and some Pet Parents may even downgrade their Pet Food. Products will see a strong movement to online purchasing and private label. At SZ 24 and GPE 24 & 25, a huge number of exhibitors actively offered their OEM services. Strong, cumulative inflation has a widespread impact.