Archive for category: Pet Market Distribution Channels

Inflation seems simple – just compare this year’s prices to the same time last year. In fact, it is more complex. The most important thing to remember is that it is cumulative so even when the YOY rate slows, it can cause a range of issues – selling less product and even a drop in $. One impact that is often ignored is slowed $ growth. That is the focus of this report. To give a better view of the situation we will include charts covering Jan>Jul 25 for the Big Groups and the “Advance” Relevant Retail Channels. We will include separate charts for Monthly & Ytd data to better show trends.

First the Jan>Jul Monthly Report for Big Groups (100% of U.S. Retail $)

We also included the Y/E numbers for 2024, both actual & average, to show our 1^st goal – Beat these lifts!

Jan is arguably the best month, but Feb is definitely the worst. It is often the low point of the Retail year. In 25, the lift vs 24 was -78% below avg for Relevant Retail, but Total and all other groups had drops. A new positive is July. Gas Stations had their smallest monthly drop in 25, but all other groups had lifts, 3 above avg. April is still the best month of this period, with 1 drop but 4 above avg lifts, including Total. In May>Jun, the situation worsened. Still 1 drop, but only 1 above avg lift. June was a better than May, but the big improvement was in July, although the Total lift is still below avg.

Restaurants – The February drop was small and the Mar>May lifts were above avg. They peaked at 7.6% in May, 36.% above avg. Things worsened in June as their lift slowed to -1.0% below avg. July rebounded to +5.9%, 6.3% above avg.

Auto – Until May>Jun, their pattern was the same as Restaurants but with bigger changes, especially in Mar/Apr. The Mar/Apr lifts were basically double the avg. The 25% tariff was effective 4/3/25. Consumers saved thousands of dollars, but the binge buy ended in May, -59.7% below avg. Sales did bounce back in Jun/Jul, 14>27% above avg.

Gas Stations – They are definitely in turmoil. Sales fell Feb>Jul and until the -2.7% drop in July, all were bigger than 2024.

Relevant Retail – They do about 60% of Total Retail $. They have a similar pattern but now with 2 differences. The biggest is that they were +1% in Feb – no drop. #2 was in July. Their lift was 1.7% above avg while Total was -7.8% below avg. The Feb/Mar & May/Jun lifts were below avg while the Jan, Apr & Jul lifts were above avg. Their 23>24 lift was above Total Retail. In May & now July their lifts were much better than Total. Their progress continues.

Total Retail – They had a small drop in February, but March was basically equal to the avg. Jan & Apr were the only above avg months. All non-Feb months had lifts above the 3.0% 23>24 Y/E increase but the May lift was only +3.1%, -33.9% below avg. The situation improved in Jun>Jul, but the July lift is still -7.8% below avg.

 7 MONTHS JAN>JUL SUMMARY: $↓: 9; ↑Avg: 15; ↓Avg: 11

Jan: $↓: 0; ↑Avg: 4; ↓Avg: 1; Feb: $↓: 4; ↑Avg: 0; ↓Avg: 1; Mar: $↓: 1; ↑Avg: 2; ↓Avg: 2; Apr: $↓: 1; ↑Avg: 4; ↓Avg: 0;

                          May: $↓: 1; ↑Avg: 1; ↓Avg: 3; Jun: $↓: 1; ↑Avg: 1; ↓Avg: 3; Jul: $↓: 1; ↑Avg: 3; ↓Avg: 1;                               

Now let’s take a closer look at Relevant Retail. We will report on the 11 channels in our Advance report.

11 Relevant Retail Channels (98% of Ytd Rel Rtl $)

Relevant Retail – Their +3.6% lift in 24 was -22.8% below average. No drops in 25. The lifts for February, March, May & June were below average, but Jan, April & July were above average. The July lift is +4.8%, 1.7% above avg.

Furniture – No drops. Lifts were double the average in January, March & April but still big in May>Jul. The huge lifts in Mar>Jul were probably due to fear of skyrocketing prices from impending tariffs.

Electronics/Appliances – They have ongoing high deflation. $ Drops in both January & February. Sales turned positive in Mar, dropped in Apr>May, returned to positive, +0.7% in Jun, then dropped -1.7% in July. The 2 lifts were both below avg.

Bldg Matl/Garden/Farm – They had the smallest of the 4 drops in 23>24, -0.6%, but the 3rd biggest decrease (of 6) in Feb, -6.1%. They had lifts in Jan, Mar, Apr & Jun but all were below avg. The Jan, Apr & Jun increases were over 70% below avg. May (-2.8%) & July (-1.5%) brought 2 more drops but Feb was still the biggest of the year.

Grocery – Sales were only +2.0% in 24, -36% below average but they surged in Jan, 63% above avg. Growth slowed to 1% or less in Feb>Mar, 70+% below avg. They had a strong rebound in Apr. Sales were +5.8%, 93% above avg. The lifts slowed markedly in May>Jun, but increased in July to +3.4%, 10.6% above avg.

Health/Drug – Sales were +3.6% in 24, -31% below avg. The lifts grew to 4+% in Jan/Feb, surged in Mar/Apr to +8.9%, 75+% above avg, then slowed to +7.3% in May. In June, $ were +11.1%, 123% above avg. July was +5.4%, 3% above avg.

Clothing – 24 $: +2.5%, -19% below avg. A strong start to 25, but Sales fell -2.4% in Feb. However, the Mar lift was 1% above avg, then Sales “took off” in Apr to +6.9%, more than double the avg lift. The strong lift continued in May, +5.3%, 60% above avg. The binge buying ended in Jun as the lift slowed to +2.9%, but resumed in July, +7.4%, 127% above avg.

Sport/Hobby/Book – They were -2.8% in 24. This trend continued and hit bottom at -6.4% in Feb. In Mar>May they turned slightly positive, peaking at +2.0% in May, -39% below avg. June fell -1.1%, but July rose to +2.3%, 27% below avg.

Department Strs – It’s difficult to find something positive. They were -4.6% in 24 and had drops Jan>Jul in 25. The biggest drop was -5.9% in Feb and the smallest was -0.2% in July. Sort of good news: 5 of 7 drops in 25 were less than avg.

Clubs/SupCtrs/Value/$ – They offer value & convenience – 1 stop shopping. They have had strong growth from the start. COVID accelerated growth so it is no surprise that all lifts are below avg. They even had small <-0.3% drops in Feb/Mar. April improved to +5.3% but sales slowed to +3.5% in May and +1.4% in Jun. July rebounded to +3.3%, -61% below avg.

Miscellaneous – Pet Stores account for 15+% of this group’s sales. They had 2 below avg lifts, Feb & Apr. The Jan & Mar lifts were 80+% above avg and the May>Jul lifts were more than double the avg. They have the 2^nd best performance of any channel, behind Furniture Stores, and they achieved it without the benefit of a pre-tarifflation buying surge.

Nonstore – 90% of $ are from internet/mail order (vast majority is internet). The Internet has had strong sales growth since its inception, but it skyrocketed due to COVID’s “stay at home” behavior. They have an avg lift of about 10%. Their 24 lift was +8.1%. From Jan>Jun, all lifts in 25 were below this and below average – no surprise. That partially changed with the +8.3% lift in July but it was still -20.9% below avg.            Low: Feb +5.0%; High: Jul +8.3%

SUMMARY

23>24: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 6; ↑Avg: 1

7 MONTHS JAN>JUL: $↓: 21; ↓Avg: 32; ↑Avg: 24

Jan: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 4; Feb: $↓: 6; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 0; Mar: $↓: 2; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 4; Apr: $↓: 2; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 4;

                          May: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 4; Jun: $↓: 2; ↓Avg: 6; ↑Avg: 3; Jul: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 5;

In the above Summary, regarding Drops and Above Average lifts, a green number indicates the best and a red number is the worst. The best months are Mar, Apr & Jul. The worst is Feb. However, the biggest positive change occurred in March. 4 channels with drops turned positive. 3 became below average and 1 above average. 3 with below average lifts moved up to above average. The classification of 4 were unchanged so 7 fueled the improvement. April was the same as Mar. May was worse than April due to 3 drops. In Jun, Drops fell to 2 but above avg fell to 3. Note: 4+ has become the norm in above avg lifts. We can’t forget January. The number of positive lifts vs Y/E 24 moved up from 7 to 8 but the number with above avg lifts rose from 1 to 4 – a big change. Even with 6 drops/below avg lifts, the situation in July has greatly improved from 11 in Feb. The overall July CPI is low and stable from June, and 5 lifts are above avg, but the channels still had mixed performances.

Now let’s take a different view of the data from the Big Groups and the same 11 channels. Rather than monthly sales, we  will look at Ytd numbers. We will still view them monthly so we can see any trends.

The Ytd numbers are arguably the most important. In December, they become Year-End, which is the most quoted and remembered data in any year. While the monthly data shows what’s happening in the marketplace right now, the Ytd data consolidates the data. This blending extends the impact of big sales spikes – positive or negative. This can be either good or bad. The impact of the big drop in February 25 was lessened by the widespread Above Average January lift. It can also work the other way. The big February drop reduced the positivity of stronger lifts in Mar>Jul. Overall, progress stalled in May/June, then restarted in July. We’ll begin our analysis with the Big Retail Groups.

You notice that the spending patterns for Relevant & Total Retl are almost identical. Jan was good for all – 5 lifts, 4 above avg. Feb was bad. Gas Station $ dropped while the others had their most Below Avg lift. In Mar>Jul, only Auto had Above Avg lifts and only Gas Stations had any drops. Restaurants steadily improved but the others’ progress paused in May>Jul.

Restaurants – Sales for 24 were +5.2%, -7% below average. They flipped to above avg in Jan, then the lift radically slowed in Feb to +2.4%, -57% below avg. The situation steadily improved in Mar>May, then the progress slowed in Jun>Jul. Their YOY lift essentially stabilized at about +5%, -6>10% below avg for May>Jul. They did beat 24’s +5.18% with +5.22% in July.

Auto – Sales were +2.3% in 24, -47% below avg and the worst “positive” performance of any group. They turned it around in Jan with an above avg lift. The lift dropped to +2.0% in Feb, -56% below avg and the smallest lift of any positive big group. Their pre-tarifflation buying lift started in Mar/Apr, peaking at +5.9% in April, 33% above avg. In May>Jul the surge slowed, and the lift fell to ≈5%. They are the only Group with Mar>Jul above avg lifts.

Gas Stations – Whether you look at the data monthly or Ytd, they are doing bad. The Apr>Jul Ytd sales drops of over -3.4% are significantly worse than the -2.9% at Y/E 24. That does not bode well for 2025.

Relevant Retail – Except for Jan, +5.0% and now July, +4.1%, their YOY lift was stuck in the 3% range. Thanks to an Above avg monthly  lift, April Ytd, +3.9%, did finally exceed the +3.6% of 2024. The lift stayed at about +3.9% in May>Jun, -16% to -18% below the Ytd avg. A strong, +4.8% July lift restarted their Ytd progress to +4.1%, only -14% below avg.

Total Retail – The pattern matches Relevant Retail but the YOY changes for all, but Jan & Mar are smaller. With similar avgs, Total has bigger disparities. Total includes Auto & Gas Stations which have had extreme lifts & drops. Their Mar>Apr progress also paused in May>Jun and increased slightly in July, but their Ytd YOY lift has been above 24 from Mar>Jul.

                                                             Summary and Comparison of Jan>Jul Monthly to Ytd

                                                        Monthly: Drops: 9; Below Avg Lifts: 11; Above Avg Lifts: 15

                                                                 Ytd: Drops: 6; Below Avg Lifts: 20; Above Avg Lifts:  9

Mon: Jan: $↓: 0; ↓Avg: 1; ↑Avg: 4; Feb: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 1; ↑Avg: 0; Mar: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 2; ↑Avg: 2; Apr: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 0; ↑Avg: 4;

Ytd:   Jan: $↓: 0; ↓Avg: 1; ↑Avg: 4; Feb: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 0; Mar: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1; Apr: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1;

Mon: May: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1; Jun: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1; Jul: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 1; ↑Avg: 3

Ytd:   May: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1; Jun: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1; Jul: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1

The Ytd report levels the Feb>Jul data. You can see this in the orange numbers in the February Drops and the March, April & July Above Average Lifts. The Ytd situation isn’t good but it’s better than 24 for all but Gas Stations. Monthly, the Big Groups were stable May>Jun then improved in July. In Ytd data, Mar>Jul was stable.

Now, Let’s look at Ytd Sales for Key Relevant Retail Channels

The Ytd chart looks a little more consistent than the Monthly chart. This is true. Ytd extends the impact of big lifts or drops. The Ytd version has 22% less Below Avg lifts (middle ground), but 24% more Drops and 8% more Above Avg lifts. The result is balance. Ytd also has 3 channels that had drops every month in 2025. Monthly has only 1. However, Ytd has 2 channels with Above Average lifts every month. Monthly has none. It’s a complex situation. Let’s get into the specifics.

Furniture Stores – They are going strong. Their huge January lift pushed the February Ytd lift from below to above avg. Now, all months are above average. Tarifflation fear caused binge buying in Mar>Jul so the current lift is still huge.

Electronics/Appliance – Ytd they are all negative. This version hides the small Mar & June lifts. The positive impact in the Ytd chart was that their YOY drop slowed from -5.0% in February to -1.6% in Jun/Jul

Bldg Matl/Garden/Farm – Their big February drop turned March from a below average monthly lift to a -0.4% Ytd drop. In a reversal, Mar/Apr lifts made Ytd April slightly positive, +0.1%. Sales fell in May & Jul so Ytd May>Jul was negative.

Grocery – Their big Jan lift made  their Ytd situation look much better. However, Ytd essentially hid the huge above average lift in April and smaller one in July. Note: Ytd they have been above 24 Y/E in every 2025 month.

Health – Monthly & Ytd have a similar pattern – Jan/Feb, below avg; Mar>Jul, above avg. The June lift was huge, more than double the avg. The July lift was small, but Ytd is still 40% above avg and 97% better than 2024.

Clothing – Their big Jan lift eliminated the Feb drop in Ytd, but the Feb drop changed Mar from above to below average in Ytd. Huge lifts in Apr & Jul kept Ytd above avg and above 24 from Apr>Jul.

Sport/Hobby/Book – They had drops in Jan>Feb. Feb was -6.4%. This turned Ytd all negative. Mar>May had increasing monthly lifts. June $ dropped but July was +2.3%, the biggest lift in 25. Ytd is -0.4%, much better than -2.8% in 24.

Department Strs – Both reports show drops every month, but Ytd is better than 24. Their fade continues.

Club/SupCtr/Value/$ – They offer value and convenience, the biggest shopping drivers. Some $ stores are struggling but SuperCenters/Clubs are still going pretty strong. Besides the internet, one problem in sustaining strong growth is that they are running out of new customers. The Monthly report had a -0.2% drop in February and a -0.3% drop in March. The Ytd numbers look better. There are no drops, but the July Ytd lift is only +2.6%, 69% below avg and 10% below 24.

Miscellaneous – This is probably our favorite channel because it includes pet stores. They also have great performance. In the Monthly report, only the YOY lifts for Feb & Apr are below avg. All others are above avg. The Ytd report is even better. All months are above avg and July is +8.2%, 91% above average and 52% more than Y/E 24.

Nonstore – They are driven by the internet which has had the strongest growth and became the biggest $ channel in 2020. The Monthly & Ytd reports have similar patterns – all months below avg. July Ytd is +6.7%. That sounds great but it is -33% below avg & -17% less than 24. It is difficult, if not impossible to maintain double digit growth…forever.

Relevant Retail – They had no drops and 3 above avg monthly lifts – only 1 (Jan) in Ytd. Ytd shows Mar>Apr growth, a May>Jun pause and a small lift in July. The group’s Ytd performance in Apr>Jul exceeds +3.6% in 24 and July is +4.1%, only -14% below avg. Here is a summary and comparison of Jan>Jul Monthly to Ytd for the 11 channels.

                                                       Monthly: Drops: 21; Below Avg Lifts: 32; Above Avg Lifts: 24

                                                                 Ytd: Drops: 26; Below Avg Lifts: 25; Above Avg Lifts: 26

Mon: Jan: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 4; Feb: $↓: 6; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 0; Mar: $↓: 2; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 4; Apr: $↓: 2; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 4

Ytd:   Jan: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 4; Feb: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 2; Mar: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 3; Apr: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 5

Mon: May: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 4; Jun: $↓: 2; ↓Avg: 6; ↑Avg: 3; Jul: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 5

Ytd:   May: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 4; Jun: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 4; Jul: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 4 

The key differences between the Monthly & Ytd reports are in the lingering Ytd impact of big drops and lifts. Both views are critically important. Monthly shows what is currently happening in the marketplace and Ytd puts it into perspective. They also show trends over time. Ytd provides an overview while Monthly shows the details fueling the movement.

Inflation negatively affects retail growth both in the short term, with spikes or drops, and in the long term, with cumulative high prices. It can even have an impact before it happens. We saw this with pre-tarifflation “fear” buying. The current retail situation is not good. The YOY lifts vs 24 are generally below the long term avg for most channels. Retail “hit bottom” in Feb but most channels (not Gas Stations or Dept stores) showed improvement in Mar/Apr. The monthly situation worsened in May/Jun, then improved in July. Ytd it is stable & better than 24. Inflation is low, but prices are still high. We’ll see if tariffs have a noticeable impact.

Finally, for your reference, here are the June and July inflation rates for the CPIs of the retail groups and channels in this report. This includes special aggregate CPIs created with the instruction and guidance of personnel from the US BLS. I also researched data from the last Economic Census to review the share of sales by product category for the various channels to help in selecting what expenditures to include in specific aggregates. Of course, none of these specially created aggregates are 100% accurate but they are much closer than the overall CPI or available aggregates. The data also includes the CPI changes vs 2021 to show cumulative inflation. The chart shows both monthly and Ytd inflation so it can be used as a reference for both measurements in the sales growth report.

Monthly YOY CPI changes of 0.2% or more are highlighted. (Green = lower; Pink = higher)

• In the Big Groups, Relevant Retail inflation was unchanged. Gas prices went down. All others got worse.
• The monthly inflation also worsened for 8 of 11 smaller channels
  • The biggest change was again Furnishings. They jumped from 3.4% to 5.2%.
  • There were no flips from deflation to inflation or vice versa.
  • For 2 channels, the worsening was just a slower deflation rate
• The 3 smaller channels with improved inflation were:
  • Health/Drug (+0.2% to +0.1%)
  • Grocery (+2.4% to +2.2%)
  • Electronics/Appliances (-2.8% to -3.6%)
• Cumulative inflation vs 2021 is still high & stable for most channels, especially Ytd

Inflation seems simple – just compare this year’s prices to the same time last year. In fact, it is more complex. The most important thing to remember is that it is cumulative so even when the YOY rate slows, it can cause a range of issues – selling less product and even a drop in revenue. One impact that is often ignored is slowed $ growth. That is the focus of this report. In order to give an accurate reading of the situation we will include charts for the Big Retail Groups and the “Advance” Relevant Retail Channels. We will also include separate charts for Monthly & Ytd data to better show trends.

First the Jan>Jun Monthly Report for Big Groups (100% of U.S. Retail $)

We also included the Y/E numbers for 2024, both actual & average, to show our 1st goal – Beat these lifts!

There are things that immediately stand out. One is expected – a BAD February. It is often the low point of the Retail year. In 2025, the lift vs 24 was -78% below avg for Relevant Retail, but Total and all other groups had drops. A big positive is January. Gas Stations had their only monthly lift in 25. It was below avg but all other groups had above avg lifts. Now April, 1 drop but 4 above avg lifts, including Total. In May>Jun, the situation worsened. Still 1 drop, but only 1 above avg lift (May: Restaurants; Jun: Auto) and 3 below avg. Total & Relevant were a little less below avg in June.

Restaurants – The February drop was small and the Mar>May lifts were above avg. Those lifts were 6+%, peaking at 7.5% in May, 34.8% above average. Things worsened in June as their lift slowed to +5.4%, -3.8% below average.

Auto – Until May>Jun, their pattern was the same as Restaurants but with bigger changes, especially in March & April. The Mar & Apr lifts were basically double the average. The 25% tariff was effective 4/3/25. Consumers saved thousands of dollars, but the binge buy ended in May, -58.5% below avg. Sales did bounce back in June, +5.3%, 23% above avg.

Gas Stations – They are truly in turmoil. Their only plus month was -42% below avg and all drops were bigger than 2024.

Relevant Retail – They do about 60% of Total Retail $ so it’s no surprise that they have a similar pattern. 1 big difference is that they were +1% in Feb – no drop. The Feb/Mar & May/Jun lifts were below avg while the Jan & Apr lifts were above avg. Their 23>24 lift was above Total Retail. In May their lift was much better than Total. In June, the gap narrowed. Their progress has essentially stabilized.

Total Retail – They had a drop in February, but March was basically equal to the average and Jan & Apr were slightly above average. All non-Feb months had lifts above the 3.0% 23>24 Y/E increase but the May lift was only +3.2%, -33.7% below avg. The situation improved a little in June, +3.7%, but the lift is still -19% below avg.

 TOTAL 6 MONTHS IN 2025: $↓: 8; ↑Avg: 12; ↓Avg: 10

Jan: $↓: 0; ↑Avg: 4; ↓Avg: 1; Feb: $↓: 4; ↑Avg: 0; ↓Avg: 1; Mar: $↓: 1; ↑Avg: 2; ↓Avg: 2

Apr: $↓: 1; ↑Avg: 4; ↓Avg: 0; May: $↓: 1; ↑Avg: 1; ↓Avg: 3; Jun: $↓: 1; ↑Avg: 1; ↓Avg: 3

Now let’s take a closer look at Relevant Retail. We will report on the 11 channels in our Advance report.

11 Relevant Retail Channels (98% of Ytd Rel Rtl $)

Relevant Retail – Their +3.6% lift in 24 was -22.8% below average. No drops in 25. The lifts for February, March, May & June were below average, but January & April were above average. The lift is now +3.9%, -17.5% below avg.

Furniture – No drops. Lifts were double the average in January, March & April but still big in May & June. The huge lifts in Mar>Jun were probably due to fear of skyrocketing prices from impending tariffs.

Electronics/Appliances – They have ongoing high deflation. $ Drops in both January & February. Sales turned positive in Mar, dropped in Apr>May, then returned to slightly positive, +0.7% in June. The 2 lifts were both below average.

Bldg Matl/Garden/Farm – They had the smallest of the 4 drops in 23>24, -0.6%, but the 3rd biggest decrease (of 6) in February, -6.1%. They had lifts in Jan, Mar, Apr & Jun but all were below average. The April increase was -77% below avg and May saw their 2^nd 2025 drop. June was nearly a drop, only +0.2%, 96.1% below avg.

Grocery – Sales were only +2.0% in 24, -36% below average but they surged in January to +5.1%, 63% above average. Growth slowed to 1% or less in Feb>Mar, 70+% below avg. They had a strong rebound in April. Sales were +5.9%, 94% above average. The lifts slowed markedly in May>Jun. June is down to +1.5%, -52.3% below avg.

Health/Drug – Sales were +3.6% in 24, -31% below avg. The lift grew in Jan>Feb to 4+%, about -20% below avg. Sales surged in Mar>Apr to +8.8%, 75% above avg, slowed to +6.7% in May, then June hit a 25 high of +9.7%, 93% above avg.

Clothing – 24 $: +2.5%, -19% below avg. A strong start to 25, +5.4%, 67% above avg. Sales fell -2.4% in Feb, but the Mar lift was 1% above avg. Sales “took off” in Apr to +6.9%, more than double the avg lift. The strong lift continued in May, +5.4%, 62% above avg. The pre-tariff buying binge ended in June as the lift slowed to +2.4%, 24% below avg.

Sport/Hobby/Book – They were -2.8% in 24. This trend continued in Jan>Feb, hitting bottom at -6.4% in February. In Mar>Jun they turned slightly positive, peaking at +2.1% in May, -35% below avg. Jun slowed to +0.9%, -72% below avg.

Department Strs – It’s difficult to find something positive. They were -4.6% in 24 and had drops Jan>Jun in 25. The biggest drop was -5.9% in Feb, but Jun was #2, -4.5% – no surprise. Sort of good news: 4 of 6 drops were below avg.

Clubs/SupCtrs/Value/$ – They offer value and the convenience of 1 stop shopping. They have had strong growth since their creation. COVID accelerated growth so it is no surprise that all lifts are below avg. They even had small <-0.3% drops in Feb/Mar. Things improved in April, +5.3%, then slowed to +3.8% in May and +1.9% in Jun. Jan was best, +5.7%.

Miscellaneous – Pet Stores account for 15+% of this group’s sales. They had 2 below avg lifts, Feb & Apr. The Jan & Mar lifts were 80+% above avg and the May>Jun lifts were more than double the avg. They have the 2^nd best performance of any channel, behind Furniture Stores, and they achieved it without the benefit of a pre-tarifflation buying surge.

Nonstore – 90% of $ are from internet/mail order (vast majority is internet). The Internet has had strong sales growth since its inception, but it skyrocketed due to COVID’s “stay at home” behavior. They have an average lift of about 10%.

Their 24 lift was +8.1%. All lifts in 25 were below this and below average – no surprise. Low: Feb +5.0%; High: Mar +7.2%

SUMMARY

23>24:$↓: 4; ↓Avg: 6; ↑Avg: 1      6 MONTHS IN 2025: $↓: 17; ↓Avg: 30; ↑Avg: 19

                                                       Jan: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 4; Feb: $↓: 6; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 0; Mar: $↓: 2; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 4                                                          Apr: $↓: 2; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 4; May:$↓: 3; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 4;  Jun: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 7; ↑Avg: 3

In the above Summary, regarding Drops and Above Average lifts, a green number indicates the best and a red is the worst. The best months are Mar & Apr and the worst is Feb. However, the biggest positive change occurred in March. 4 channels with drops turned positive. 3 became below average and 1 above average. 3 with below average lifts moved up to above average. The classification of 4 were unchanged so 7 fueled the improvement. April was the same as Mar. May was worse than April due to 3 drops. In Jun, Drops fell to 1 but above avg fell to 3. Note: 4 has become the norm in above avg lifts. We also can’t forget January. The number of positive lifts vs Y/E 24 moved up from 7 to 8 but the number with above average increases rose from 1 to 4 – a significant change. Even with 8 drops/below avg lifts, the situation has improved since hitting bottom with 11 in Feb. The CPI is low, but up for all in Jun. Pre-tariff binge buying may be over.

Now let’s take a different view of the data from the Big Groups and the same 11 channels. Rather than monthly sales, we we will look at Ytd numbers. We will still view them monthly so we can see any trends.

The Ytd numbers are arguably the most important. In December, they become Year-End, which is the most quoted and remembered data in any year. While the monthly data shows what’s happening in the marketplace right now, the Ytd data consolidates the data. This blending extends the impact of big sales spikes – positive or negative. This can be either good or bad. The impact of the big drop in February 25 was lessened by the widespread Above Average January lift. It can also work the other way. The big February drop reduced the positivity of stronger lifts in Mar>Jun. Overall, progress stalled in May & June. We’ll begin our analysis with the Big Retail Groups.

The first thing that you notice is that the spending patterns for Restaurants and Relevant & Total Retail are virtually identical. All groups had January lifts and all, but Gas Stations were Above Average. However, only Auto had Above Average lifts in Mar>Jun. Also, only Gas Stations had any sales drops. Overall, the improvement paused in May>Jun.

Restaurants – Sales for 24 were +5.2%, -7% below average. They flipped in January as the lift vs last year grew to +5.7%, 5.5% above average. The lift radically slowed in February to +2.4%, -57% below average. The situation steadily improved in March/April, even slightly in May but essentially stabilized in June at +5.1%, 9.3% below average.

Auto – Sales were +2.3% in 24, -47% below avg and the worst “positive” performance of any group. They turned it around in Jan with a +5.8% lift, 32% above avg. The lift dropped to +2.0% in Feb, -56% below avg and the smallest lift of any positive big group. Due to pre-tarifflation buying the lift took off in Mar/Apr, reaching +5.9% in April, 33% above avg. In May>Jun the surge ended, and the lift fell to ≈5%. They are the only Group with Mar>Jun above avg lifts.

Gas Stations – Whether you look at the data monthly or Ytd, they are doing bad. The June Ytd sales drop of -4.0% is even 38% worse than the -2.9% at Y/E 24. That does not bode well for 2025.

Relevant Retail – Except for January, +5.0%, they seem to be stuck in the 3% lift range. Thanks to an Above avg monthly  lift, April Ytd, +3.9%, did finally exceed the +3.6% of 2024. The lift stayed at +3.9% in May>Jun, it also stayed at about -18% below the Ytd avg. Their slow, steady Mar>Apr progress paused in May>Jun.

Total Retail – The pattern matches Relevant Retail but the YOY changes for all but January & March are smaller. With similar averages, Total has bigger disparities. Total includes Auto & Gas Stations which have had extreme lifts & drops. Their steady Mar>Apr progress also paused in May>Jun, but their Ytd lift has been above 24 from March through June.

Summary and Comparison of Monthly to Ytd

Monthly: Drops: 8; Below Avg Lifts: 10; Above Avg Lifts: 12

      Ytd: Drops: 5; Below Avg Lifts: 17; Above Avg Lifts:  8

Mon: Jan: $↓: 0; ↓Avg: 1; ↑Avg: 4; Feb: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 1; ↑Avg: 0; Mar: $↓: 1;↓Avg: 2; ↑Avg: 2

Ytd:   Jan: $↓: 0; ↓Avg: 1; ↑Avg: 4; Feb: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 0; Mar: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1

Mon: Apr: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 0;↑Avg: 4; May: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1; Jun: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1;

Ytd:  Apr: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3;↑Avg: 1;  May:$↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1; Jun: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1;

In the summary the orange numbers show that the Ytd report levels the Feb>Jun data. The situation doesn’t look good Ytd but it’s better than 24 for all but Gas Stations. Monthly, the Big Groups stabilized in May. In Ytd data, they stabilized in March.

Now, Let’s look at Ytd Sales for Key Relevant Retail Channels

The Ytd chart looks a little more consistent than the Monthly chart. This is true. Ytd extends the impact of big lifts or drops. The Ytd version has 27% less Below Avg lifts (middle ground), but 29% more Drops & 16% more Above Avg lifts. The result is balance. Ytd also has 3 channels that had drops every month in 2025. Monthly has only 1. However, Ytd has 2 channels with Above Average lifts every month. Monthly has none. It’s a complex situation. Let’s get into the specifics.

Furniture Stores – They are going strong. Their huge January lift pushed the February Ytd lift from below to above avg. Now, all months are above average. Tarifflation fear caused binge buying in Mar>Jun so the current lift is still huge.

Electronics/Appliance – Ytd they are all negative. This version hides the small Mar & June lifts. The positive impact in the Ytd chart was that their YOY drop slowed from -5.0% in February to -1.5% in June.

Bldg Matl/Garden/Farm – Their big February drop turned March from a below average monthly lift to a -0.4% Ytd drop. In a reversal, Mar/Apr lifts made Ytd April slightly positive, +0.1%. Sales fell -2.8% in May so Ytd May & Jun were negative.

Grocery – Their big January lift made  their situation look significantly better in Ytd. However, the Ytd view essentially hid the huge above average lift in April. Note: The current Ytd lift (+2.8%) is 40% above 24 Y/E and just 11% below the annual average.

Health – Monthly & Ytd have a similar pattern – Jan>Feb, below average lifts; Mar>Jun, above avg. The May monthly lift was smaller than Mar/Apr but the June lift was huge, almost double the avg. Ytd is now 97% better than 2024.

Clothing – They had a +5.4% lift in January, 67% above avg. This eliminated the Feb drop in Ytd but the Feb drop changed Mar from above to below average in Ytd. Apr/May Monthly lifts were big. Jun was small but Apr>Jun was above avg Ytd.

Sport/Hobby/Book – They had drops in Jan>Feb. Feb was -6.4%. This turned Ytd all negative. It also hid the possible start of a recovery. Mar>May had increasing monthly lifts. June slowed but Ytd it is -0.4%, much better than -2.8% in 24.

Department Strs – Both reports show drops every month. They have been fading for years. It continues.

Club/SupCtr/Value/$ – They offer value and convenience, the biggest shopping drivers. Some $ stores are struggling but SuperCenters/Clubs are still going pretty strong. Besides the internet, one problem in sustaining strong growth is that they are running out of new customers. The Monthly report had a -0.2% drop in February and a -0.3% drop in March. The Ytd numbers look better. There are no drops, but the June Ytd lift is only +2.6%, 69% below avg and 10% below 24.

Miscellaneous – This is probably our favorite channel because it includes pet stores. They also have great performance. In the Monthly report, only the YOY lifts for Feb & Apr are below avg. All others are above avg. The Ytd report is even better. All months are above avg and June is +7.4%, 72% above average and 37% more than Y/E 24.

Nonstore – They are driven by the internet which has had the strongest growth and became the biggest $ channel in 2020. The Monthly & Ytd reports have similar patterns – all months below avg. June Ytd is +6.4%. That sounds great but it is -37% below average. We’re seeing that it is difficult, if not impossible to maintain double digit growth…forever.

Relevant Retail – Their $ come from a mixture of different spending patterns. They had no drops and both Monthly & Ytd show Mar>Apr growth and a May>Jun pause. Ytd hides the Above avg April lift but shows that the group’s performance in Apr>Jun now exceeds 24…+3.9% to +3.6%. Here is a summary and comparison of Monthly to Ytd for the 11 channels.

 Monthly: Drops: 17; Below Avg Lifts: 30; Above Avg Lifts: 19

Ytd: Drops:22; Below Avg Lifts: 22; Above Avg Lifts: 22

Mon: Jan: $↓:3; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 4; Feb: $↓: 6; ↓Avg:5; ↑Avg: 0; Mar: $↓: 2; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 4

Ytd:   Jan: $↓:3; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 4; Feb: $↓: 4; ↓Avg:5; ↑Avg: 2; Mar: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 3

Mon: Apr: $↓: 2;↓Avg:5; ↑Avg: 4; May: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 4; Jun: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 7; ↑Avg: 3

   Ytd: Apr: $↓: 3; ↓Avg:3; ↑Avg: 5; May: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 4; Jun: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 4 

The key differences between the Monthly & Ytd reports are in the lingering Ytd impact of big drops and lifts. Both views are critically important. Monthly shows what is currently happening in the marketplace and Ytd puts it into perspective. They also show trends over time. Ytd provides an overview while Monthly shows the details fueling the movement.

Inflation negatively affects retail growth both in the short term, with spikes or drops, and in the long term, with cumulative high prices. It can even have an impact before it happens. We saw this with pre-tarifflation “fear” buying. The current retail situation is not good. The YOY lifts vs 24 are generally below the long term avg for most channels. Retail “hit bottom” in Feb but most channels (not Gas Stations or Dept stores) showed improvement in Mar/Apr. The situation got a little worse in May/Jun but Ytd it is stable & better than 24. Inflation is low, but prices are still high. We’ll see…

Finally, for your reference, here are the May and June inflation rates for the CPIs of the retail groups and channels in this report. This includes special aggregate CPIs created with the instruction and guidance of personnel from the US BLS. I also researched data from the last Economic Census to review the share of sales by product category for the various channels to help in selecting what expenditures to include in specific aggregates. Of course, none of these specially created aggregates are 100% accurate but they are much closer than the overall CPI or available aggregates. The data also includes the CPI changes vs 2021 to show cumulative inflation. The chart shows both monthly and Ytd inflation so it can be used as a reference for both measurements in the sales growth report.

Monthly YOY CPI changes of 0.2% or more are highlighted. (Green = lower; Pink = higher)

• In the Big Groups, Restaurant inflation was unchanged. All others got worse.
  • Total Retail flipped from -0.1% deflation to +0.6% inflation
• The monthly inflation also worsened for 10 of 11 smaller channels
  • The biggest change was Furnishings jumped from 0.5% to 3.4%.
  • Department Stores, Miscellaneous and Nonstore all flipped from deflation to inflation
  • For 4 channels, the worsening was just a slower deflation rate
• The 1 smaller channel with improved inflation was Health/Drug – from +0.3% to +0.2%
• Cumulative inflation vs 2021 is still high & stable for most channels, especially Ytd

Inflation seems simple – just compare this year’s prices to the same time last year. In fact, it is more complex. The most important thing to remember is that it is cumulative so even when the YOY rate slows, it can cause a range of issues – selling less product and even a drop in revenue. One impact that is often ignored is slowed $ growth. That is the focus of this report. In order to give an accurate reading of the situation we will include charts for the Big Retail Groups and the “Advance” Relevant Retail Channels. We will also include separate charts for Monthly & Ytd data to better show trends.

First the Jan>May Monthly Report for Big Groups (100% of U.S. Retail $)

We also included the Y/E numbers for 2024, both actual & average, to show our goal – Beat these lifts!

There are things that immediately stand out. One is expected – a BAD February. It is often the low point of the Retail year. In 2025, the lift vs 24 was -78% below avg for Relevant Retail, but Total and all other groups had drops. A positive is January. Gas Stations had their only monthly lift in 25. It was below avg but all other groups had above avg lifts. Now May, only 1 above avg lift – a big turnaround from 4 in April. We also should note Auto. They had a big Mar>Apr lift due to impending tariffs. That ended in May as their YOY lift was -47% below avg.

Restaurants – The February drop was small and the other 4 months had lifts above average. The Mar>May lifts were 6+%, peaking at +6.4% in May, 13.6% above average. If they can continue their post-February performance, they will likely have a great year.

Auto – Except for May, Their pattern is the same as Restaurants but with lifts much more above average, especially in March & April. The Mar & Apr lifts were basically double the average. The 25% tariff was effective 4/3/25. Consumers saved thousands of dollars, but the binge buy ended. The May lift was only +2.4%, -47.3% below avg.

Gas Stations – They are truly in turmoil. Their only plus month was -42% below avg and all drops were bigger than 2024.

Relevant Retail – They do about 60% of Total Retail $ so it’s no surprise that they have a similar pattern. 1 big difference is that they were +1% in Feb – no drop. The Feb/Mar & May lifts were below avg while the Jan & Apr lifts were above avg. Their 23>24 lift was above Total Retail. In May their lift was much better than Total, but their progress stopped.

Total Retail – They had a drop in February, but March was basically equal to the average and Jan & Apr were slightly above average. All non-Feb months had lifts above the 3.0% 23>24 Y/E increase but the May lift was only +3.1%, -34.9% below avg. Their progress has also stopped.

Summary: Jan: $↓: 0; ↑Avg: 4; ↓Avg: 1; Feb: $↓: 4; ↑Avg: 0; ↓Avg: 1; Mar: $↓: 1; ↑Avg: 2; ↓Avg: 2; Apr: $↓: 1; ↑Avg: 4; ↓Avg: 0;                                             May: $↓: 1; ↑Avg: 1; ↓Avg: 3;       TOTAL 5 MONTHS in 2025: $↓: 7; ↑Avg: 11; ↓Avg: 7

Now let’s take a closer look at Relevant Retail. We will report on the 11 channels in our Advance report.

11 Relevant Retail Channels (98% of Ytd Rel Rtl $)

Relevant Retail – Their +3.6% lift in 24 was -22.8% below average. No drops in 25. The lifts for February, March & May were below average but January & April were above average.

Furniture – No drops. Lifts were double the average in January, March, April & May. The big lifts in Mar>May were probably due to fear of skyrocketing prices from impending tariffs.

Electronics/Appliances – They have ongoing high deflation. $ Drops in both January & February. Sales turned positive in Mar>Apr, then dropped in May. Both of the 2 lifts were below average.

Bldg Matl/Garden/Farm – They had the smallest of the 4 drops in 23>24, -0.6%, but the 3rd biggest decrease (of 6) in February, -6.1%. They had lifts in Jan, Mar & Apr but all were below average. This includes their normal Spring lift. The April increase was -77% below average and May saw their 2^nd 2025 drop. Cumulative 19% inflation was probably a factor.

Grocery – Sales were only +2.0% in 24, -36% below average but they surged in January to +5.1%, 63% above average. Growth slowed to 1% or less in Feb>Mar, 70+% below average. However, they had a strong rebound in April. Sales were +5.9% vs 24, 94% above average. The big lift contributed to a smaller May lift of 2.6%, 56% below Apr & 18% below avg.

Health/Drug – Sales were +3.6% in 24, -31% below average. The lift grew slightly in Jan>Feb to 4+% but it was still about -20% below avg. Sales surged in Mar>Apr to +8.8%, 75% above average, then slowed to +6.7% in May, but still 30% above avg

Clothing – 24 $: +2.5%, -19% below avg. Then a strong start to 25, +5.4%, 67% above avg. Sales fell -2.4% in Feb, but in March the lift exceeded the average by 3%. They “took off” in April to +6.7%, more than double the avg lift. The strong lift continued in May, +5.9%, 73% above avg. Like Furniture, the big lifts were likely due to fear of impending tariffs.

Sport/Hobby/Book – They were -2.8% in 24. This trend continued in Jan>Feb, peaking at -6.4% in February. In March they turned slightly positive, +0.4% but this grew in April to +1.5%, -51% below avg & +2.8% in May, just -13% below avg.

Department Strs – It’s difficult to find something positive. They were -4.6% in 24 and had drops Jan>May in 25. The biggest drop was -5.9% in February – no surprise. Sort of good news: 2 drops were 58+% less than the average drop.

Clubs/SupCtrs/Value/$ – They offer Brick ‘n Mortar value and the convenience of 1 stop shopping. They have had strong growth since their creation. COVID further accelerated growth so it is no surprise that all lifts are below avg. They even had small <-0.3% drops in Feb/Mar. Things improved in April, +5.3%, then slowed to +3.8% in May. Jan was best, +5.7%.

Miscellaneous – Pet Stores account for 15+% of this group’s sales. They had below avg lifts in Feb & Apr. The Jan, Mar & May lifts were 80+% above avg and peaked at +8.4% in March. They have the 2^nd best performance of any channel, behind Furniture Stores, and they achieved  it without the benefit of a pre-tarifflation buying surge.

Nonstore – 90% of $ are from internet/mail order (vast majority is internet). The Internet has had strong sales growth since its inception, but it skyrocketed due to COVID’s “stay at home” behavior. They have an average lift of about 10%. Their 24 lift was +8.1%. All lifts in 25 were below this and below average – no surprise. Low: Feb +5.0%; High: Mar +7.2%

SUMMARY

23>24: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 6; ↑Avg: 1

TOTAL 5 MONTHS in 2025: $↓: 15; ↓Avg: 24; ↑Avg: 16

Jan: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 4; Feb: $↓: 6; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 0; Mar: $↓: 2; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 4;

Apr: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 6; ↑Avg: 4; May: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 4;

In the above Summary, regarding Drops and Above Average lifts, green indicates the best and red is the worst. Obviously, the best month is April and the worst is February. However, the biggest positive change occurred in March. 4 channels with drops turned positive. 3 became below average and 1 above average. 3 with below average lifts moved up to above average. The classification of 4 were unchanged so 7 channels fueled the improvement. April was only a little better than March as 1 drop moved up. May was worse than April due to 3 drops. Note: 4 has become the norm in above avg lifts. We also can’t forget January. There was only a slight improvement in the number of positive lifts vs Y/E 24, from 7 to 8 but the number with above average increases rose from 1 to 4 – a significant change. Even with May drops, the situation has improved since hitting bottom in February. The CPI is still low and fear of impending tariffs has had a positive impact.

Now let’s take a different view of the data from the Big Groups and the same 11 channels. Rather than monthly sales, we we will look at Ytd numbers. We will still view them monthly so we can see any trends.

The Ytd numbers are arguably the most important. In December, they become Year-End, which is the most quoted and remembered data in any year. While the monthly data shows what’s happening in the marketplace right now, the Ytd data consolidates the data. This blending extends the impact of big sales spikes – positive or negative. This can be either good or bad. The impact of the big drop in February 25 was lessened by the widespread Above Average January lift. It can also work the other way. The big February drop reduced the positivity of strong lifts in March and April. Overall, the May lift was similar to April, so progress stalled. We’ll begin our analysis with the Big Retail Groups.

The first thing that you notice is that the spending patterns for Restaurants and Relevant & Total Retail are virtually identical. All groups had January lifts and all, but Gas Stations were Above Average. However, only Auto had Above Average lifts in Mar>May. Also, only Gas Stations had any sales drops. Overall, the improvement paused in May.

Restaurants – Sales for 24 were +5.2%, -7% below average. They flipped in January as the lift vs last year grew to +5.5%, 5.4% above average. The lift radically slowed in February to +2.4%, -57% below average. The situation steadily improved in March/April and even slightly in May as the YOY increase grew to +4.7%, -15% below average.

Auto – Sales were +2.3% in 24, -47% below avg and the worst “positive” performance of any group. They turned it around in January with a +5.8% lift, 32% above avg. The lift dropped to +2.0% in February, -55.5% below avg and the smallest lift of any positive big group. Due to pre-tarifflation buying the lift took off in Mar/Apr, reaching +5.9% in April, 33% above avg. In May the surge ended, and the lift fell to 5.1%. They are the only Group with Feb>May above avg lifts.

Gas Stations – Whether you look at the data monthly or Ytd, they are doing bad. The May Ytd sales drop of -4.2% is even 45% worse than the -2.9% at Y/E 24. That does not bode well for 2025.

Relevant Retail – Except for January, +5.0%, they seem to be stuck in the 3% lift range. Thanks to an Above avg monthly  lift, April Ytd, +3.9%, did finally exceed the +3.6% of 2024. The lift stayed at +3.9% in May, but this was -17.4% below the monthly avg. Their slow, steady Mar>Apr progress paused in May.

Total Retail – The pattern matches Relevant Retail but the YOY changes for all but January are smaller and in May their lift slowed. With similar averages, Total has bigger disparities. Total includes Auto & Gas Stations which have had extreme lifts & drops. Their steady Mar>Apr progress also paused in May, but their Ytd lift has been above 24 since March.

Summary and Comparison of Monthly to Ytd

                                                                                Monthly: Drops: 7; Below Avg Lifts:  7; Above Avg Lifts: 11

                                                                                         Ytd: Drops: 4; Below Avg Lifts: 14; Above Avg Lifts:  7

                                          Mon: Jan: $↓: 0; ↓Avg: 1; ↑Avg: 4; Feb: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 1; ↑Avg: 0; Mar: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 2; ↑Avg: 2

                                          Ytd:   Jan: $↓: 0; ↓Avg: 1; ↑Avg: 4; Feb: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 0; Mar: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1

                                         Mon: Apr: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 0; ↑Avg: 4; May: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1

                                         Ytd:   Apr: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1; May: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1

January  Monthly & Ytd are the same. The highlights in the summary clearly show that the Ytd report levels the Feb>May data. The situation doesn’t look good Ytd but it is better than 2024 for all but Gas Stations. Both reports show that it was improving for all but Gas Stations…until May.

Now, Let’s look at Ytd Sales for Key Relevant Retail Channels

The Ytd chart looks a little more consistent than the Monthly chart. This is true. Ytd extends the impact of big lifts or drops. The result is that the Ytd version has 20.8% less Below Avg lifts (middle ground), but 20% more Drops & 12.5% more Above Avg lifts. Ytd also has 3 channels that had drops every month in 2025. Monthly has only 1. However, Ytd has 2 channels with Above Average lifts every month. Monthly has none. It’s a complex situation. Let’s get into the specifics.

Furniture Stores – They are going strong. Their huge January lift pushed the February Ytd lift from below to above avg. Now, all months are above average. Tarifflation fear caused binge buying in Mar>May so the current lift is double the avg.

Electronics/Appliance – Ytd they are all negative. This version hides Mar>Apr lifts. The positive impact in the Ytd chart was that their YOY drop slowed from -5.0% in February to -1.9% in May.

Bldg Matl/Garden/Farm – Their big February drop turned March from a below average monthly lift to a -0.4% Ytd drop. In a reversal, Mar/Apr lifts made Ytd April minimally positive, +0.02%. Then sales fell -3.0% in May.

Grocery – Their big January lift made  their situation look significantly better in Ytd. However, it effectively hid the above average lift in April. Note: The current Ytd lift (+3.0%) is 50% above 24 Y/E and just 3.5% below the annual average.

Health – Monthly & Ytd have a similar pattern – Jan>Feb, below average lifts; Mar>May, above avg. However, the May Monthly lift was not as big as Mar>Apr but it was still enough to increase May Ytd.

Clothing – They had a +5.4% lift in January, 67% above avg. This eliminated the February drop in Ytd but the February drop changed Mar from above to below average in Ytd. Apr/May Monthly lifts were big and pushed both above avg Ytd.

Sport/Hobby/Book – They had drops in Jan>Feb. Feb was -6.4%. This turned Ytd all negative. It also hid the possible start of a recovery. Mar>May had increasing monthly lifts. All were below avg but May was only -13% less.

Department Strs – Both reports show drops every month. They have been fading for years. It continues.

Club/SupCtr/Value/$ – They offer value and convenience, the biggest shopping drivers. Some $ stores are struggling but SuperCenters/Clubs are still going pretty strong. Besides the internet, one problem in sustaining strong growth is that they are running out of new customers. The Monthly report had a -0.2% drop in February and a -0.3% drop in March. The Ytd numbers look better. There are no drops, but the May Ytd lift is only +2.8%, 67% below average.

Miscellaneous – This is probably our favorite channel because it includes pet stores. They also have great performance. In the Monthly report, only the YOY lifts for February and April are below avg. All other months are above avg. The Ytd report is even better. All months are above average and May is +6.1%, 41% above average and 13% more than Y/E 24.

Nonstore – They are driven by the internet which has had the strongest growth and became the biggest $ channel in 2020. The Monthly & Ytd reports have similar patterns – all months below avg. May Ytd is +6.4%. That sounds great but it is -36% below average. We’re seeing that it is difficult, if not impossible to maintain double digit growth…forever.

Relevant Retail – Their $ come from a mixture of different spending patterns. They had no drops and both Monthly & Ytd show Mar>Apr growth and a May pause. Ytd hides the Above avg April lift, but it shows that the group’s performance in Apr/May now exceeds 2024…+3.9% to +3.6%. Here is a summary and comparison of Monthly to Ytd for the 11 channels.

                                                        Monthly: Drops: 15; Below Avg Lifts: 24; Above Avg Lifts: 16

                                                                 Ytd: Drops: 18; Below Avg Lifts: 19; Above Avg Lifts:  18

                           Mon: Jan: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 4; Feb: $↓: 6; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 0; Mar: $↓: 2; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 4

                           Ytd:   Jan: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 4; Feb: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 5; ↑Avg: 2; Mar: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 3

                          Mon: Apr: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 6; ↑Avg: 4; May: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 4; ↑Avg: 4

                          Ytd:   Apr: $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 5; May: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 4

The key differences between the Monthly & Ytd reports are in the lingering Ytd impact of big drops and lifts. Both views are critically important. Monthly shows what is currently happening in the marketplace and Ytd puts it into perspective. They also show trends over time. Ytd provides an overview while Monthly shows the details fueling the movement.

Inflation negatively affects retail growth both in the short term, with spikes or drops, and in the long term, with cumulative high prices. It can even have an impact before it happens. We are seeing this with pre-tarifflation “fear” buying. The current retail situation is not good. The YOY lifts vs 2024 are generally below the long term average for most channels. Retail “hit bottom” in February but most channels (not Gas Stations or Dept stores) showed improvement in Mar/Apr. The situation got worse in May due to more drops but Ytd it is better than 24. Inflation is low with some deflation, but prices are still high. We’ll see what happens.

Finally, for your reference, here are the April and May inflation rates for the CPIs of the retail groups and channels in this report. This includes special aggregate CPIs created with the instruction and guidance of personnel from the US BLS. I also researched data from the last Economic Census to review the share of sales by product category for the various channels to help in selecting what expenditures to include in specific aggregates. Of course, none of these specially created aggregates are 100% accurate but they are much closer than the overall CPI or available aggregates. The data also includes the CPI changes vs 2021 to show cumulative inflation. The chart shows both monthly and Ytd inflation so it can be used as a reference for both measurements in the sales growth report.

Monthly YOY CPI changes of 0.2% or more are highlighted. (Green = lower; Pink = higher)

• You see that monthly inflation worsen for 10 channels
  • The most significant change was Furnishings flipped from -0.7% deflation to +0.5% inflation
  • For 5 channels, the worsening was just a slower deflation rate
• Of the 3 channels with improved inflation
  • 2 had increased deflation
  • The biggest improvement was in Health/Personal Care where inflation slowed to 0.3% from 1.0%
• Cumulative inflation vs 2021 is still high & stable for most channels, especially Ytd

 

In April, the Commodities CPI fell to -0.2% from 0.05% and Total Retail sales were +5.2% vs 24, 11.3% above their average April Lift. The Relevant Retail CPI slowed to 0.6% from 0.7% and sales vs 24 were +5.3%, 13.2% above average. There are other factors currently impacting sales, including high cumulative inflation and pre-tarifflation binge buying. The situation is complex but in regard to the size of YOY sales lifts vs 24, April is better than March.

It is also time for the annual adjustment of the survey by the Census Bureau. There are 2 big changes. Non-employer companies (about 1.8% of Retail $) were removed to match other reports like the Economic Census. This is minor but widespread, affecting data back to 1992. The other change is more visible. The NAICS code for Discount Department Stores has been discontinued. In recent years they have added a significant amount of grocery items to their stores so they are now classified as Club/SuperCtrs. This became effective in 2013. From 1992>2012, they are listed as Department Stores. I have revised my entire 1992>2025 monthly sales by channel database to reflect all changes.

The layout of my report is unchanged. We will begin with the Census Bureau’s March Monthly Report and then go to their April Advance Report. Our focus is still comparing to last year but also 21 & 19. We’ll show both actual and the “real” change in sales as we factor inflation into the data. Note: There is 1 change in the methodology for determining 92>24 Avg $ales lifts. I now use the POWER function.

Both reports include the following:

• Total Retail, Restaurants, Auto, Gas Stations and Relevant Retail (removing Restaurants, Auto and Gas)
• Individual Channel Data – This is more detailed in the Monthly reports, and we’ll focus on Pet Relevant Channels.

The data will be presented in detailed charts to facilitate visual comparison between groups/channels. The charts will show 11 separate measurements. To save space they will be displayed in a stacked bar format for the channel charts.

• Current Month change – % & $ vs previous month
• Current Month change – % & $ vs same month last year and vs 2021.
  • Current Month Real change vs last year and vs 2021 – % factoring in inflation
• Current Ytd change – % & $ for this year vs last year, 2021 & 2019.
  • Current Ytd Real change % for this year vs last year and vs 2021 and 2019
• Monthly & Ytd $ & CPIs for this year vs last year and vs 2021 which are targeted by channel will also be shown. (CPI Details are at the end of the report)

First, the March Monthly. All Big Groups were up from February but there were 2 actual YOY sales drops, Gas Stations vs 24. We should note that they are selling less product than in 21 & 19. 3 groups are “all positive”. There were none in February. Relevant Retail has been all positive in 12 of the last 16 months and in 8 of the last 10. ($ are Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Primarily due to the annual adjustment, the March Monthly is $10.2B less than the Advance report. Restaurants: -$0.3B; Auto: -$2.3B; Gas Stations: -$0.1B; Relevant Retail: -$7.5B. All big groups were up double digits from February. A Feb>Mar increase in Total Retail  has happened in every year but 2020 since 1992. Plus, the 15.3% lift was 14.6% bigger than the 13.3% average. There were only 2 YOY drops in actual sales vs 5 in February. There were also only 5 “real” sales drops (8 in Feb) and 3 groups were “all positive” (None in Feb). Restaurants still have the biggest increases vs 21 & 19 but Relevant Retail stayed at the top of “real” performance vs 2019. However, only 54% of their growth is real.

Now, let’s see how some Key Pet Relevant channels did in March (82% of Mar Ytd Rel Retl $)

Overall– All 11 were up from February. Vs Mar 24, 8 were actually and 7 “really” up. Vs Mar 21, 7 were up but only 4 were real increases. Vs 2019, The only negatives were Off/Gift/Souv & Dept Strs. Both were actually & really down.

• Building Material Stores – The pandemic focus on home has produced sales growth of 33.5% since 2019. Prices for the Bldg/Matl group have inflated 18.7% from 21 and 21.9% from 2019 which is having an impact. Sales vs February were +23.9% for HomeCtr/Hdwe and +40.1% for Farm Stores. Vs other years, actual $ are only down monthly vs 21 for both & Ytd vs 24 for Home/Hdw. In Real $, both are down vs 21 and Home/Hdw is also down Ytd vs 24. Plus, only 22% of the Bldg Materials group’s 19>25 lift was real. Avg 19>25 Growth: HomeCtr/Hdwe: 4.2%, Real: 0.8%; Farm: 5.9%, Real: 2.4%
• Food & Drug – Both are truly essential. Except for the pandemic food binge buying, they tend to have smaller changes in $. In terms of inflation, the Grocery rate is now 2.4 times higher than the rate for Drug/Med products. Drug Stores are positive in all measurements and 66% of their 2019>25 growth is real. Supermarkets’ actual $ are up in all comparisons. They are only “really” down monthly vs 2024 & 2021 and Ytd vs 2021. However, only 11.5% of their 19>25 increase is real growth. Avg 19>25 Growth: Supermarkets: +5.0%, Real: +0.6%; Drug Stores: +5.1%, Real: +3.5%.
• Sporting Goods Stores – They also benefited from the pandemic in that consumers turned to self-entertainment, especially sports & outdoor activities. Sales are up +33.2% from February, but their only positives are vs 2019 & real vs Mar 24. Prices are still deflating, -5.0% vs 24. Deflation started in April 23 and is a big change from +1.1% in 22>23 and +7.9% in 21>22. The caused 74.7% of their 36.8% lift since 19 to be real. Avg 19>25 Growth Rate is: +5.4%; Real: +4.1%.
• Gen Mdse Stores – All sales but real vs Mar 24 were up for Club/SupCtrs. $ Stores are actually & really down Monthly & Ytd vs 24 and really vs Mar 21. Department Stores are only actually up Ytd vs 21. Actual sales are -28.6% from 19, so negative growth for them – both actual & real. The other channels have an average of 44.6% in real growth. Avg 19>25 Growth: SupCtr/Club: 5.3%, Real: 2.5%; $/Value Strs: +5.3%, Real: +2.5%; Dept. Strs: -5.4%, Real: -7.0%.
• Office, Gift & Souvenir Stores – After 2 consecutive monthly drops, sales grew +19.2% from February. However, they are still actually & really down Ytd vs 2019 & really down monthly & Ytd vs 21. Their recovery started late, but their progress may be slowly restarting again. Avg Growth Rate: -0.3%, Real: -1.9%
• Internet/Mail Order – Sales are +10.3% from February and set a new March record of $112.0B. All measurements are positive, but their YOY growth, +6.8%, is only 46% of their average since 2019. However, 83.6% of their 130.7% growth since 2019 is real. Avg Growth: +14.9%, Real: +13.1%. As expected, they are by far the growth leader since 2019.
• A/O Miscellaneous – Pet Stores are 22>24% of total $. In May 2020 they began their recovery which reached $100B for the first time in 2021. In 2022 their sales dipped in January, July, Sept>Nov, rose in December, fell in Jan>Feb 23, grew Mar>May, fell Jun>Aug, rose Sep>Nov, fell Dec>Jan 24, grew Feb>May, fell Jun>Sep, grew Oct, fell Nov, rose Dec, fell Jan>Feb, then grew in Mar. All measurements are again positive and they are in 2^nd place, behind the Internet, in the % increase vs 19 and vs 21. Also, 79% of their 76.9% growth since 2019 is real. Average 19>25 Growth: 10.0%, Real: +8.2%

March had its usual lift vs February, but the Relevant Retail lift was only 1% above avg. All big & small channels were up. The YOY March lift was 18% below avg for Relevant Retl and $ were down for 3 smaller channels and 1 big group. Prices are deflating in 7 channels (5 in Feb) but cumulative inflation still impacts sales as only 4 channels were really up vs Mar 21. The Retail Recovery is still slow. The March commodities CPI was 0.05% but dropped to -0.2% in April. Let’s see if it impacts Retail.

Mar>Apr sales were down for Total, Restaurants & Auto. A Mar>Apr Total Retail drop has happened 85% of the time since 1992 but the 0.6% drop is 65% less than average. There were 2 YOY $ drops, the same as March. $ for all Big Groups but Gas Stations were up vs Apr 24 and the Total Retail lift of 5.2% vs Apr 24 was 11% above their +4.7% 92>24 avg. The Relevant Retail 5.3% increase vs 24 was also above their +4.7% avg (+13.2%). Inflation is still a factor. The CPI for all commodities fell to  -0.2% but it is still 16.7% vs 21. The inflation surge was beginning to accelerate back then (+6.8%). There is some other good “real” news. 4 “real” measurements were down compared to 5 in March. Also, like March, 3 Big Groups were all positive. Relevant Retail has been all positive in 9 of the last 11 months.

Overall Inflation Reality– The Total Retail CPI fell to -0.2% and the $ lift vs 24 was 11% above avg. The Restaurant CPI stayed at +3.8% but their sales lift was 23% above avg. Gas prices fell to -11.7% but they are still in turmoil. Auto inflation rose to 0.8% and it is +14.6% vs 21. Auto sales grew 8.6% vs 24 (97% above avg – pre-tariff buying). Inflation slowed to 0.6% for Relevant Retail. Their YOY lift was 13% above avg and they are again all positive. Slow progress continues.

Total Retail – Since Jun 20, every month but Apr 23, Jun 24 & Feb 25 has set a monthly $ales record. In 2023>24, Sales were on a roller coaster. Up Jul>Aug, down Sept, up Oct>Dec, down Jan 24, up Feb>Mar, down April, up May, down Jun, up Jul>Aug, down in Sep, up Oct>Dec, down Jan>Feb 25, up in Mar, then down in Apr. Prices are -0.2% and YOY sales vs 24 are +5.2%, 11% above the 92>24 avg change of +4.7%. 43.5% of the 19>25 growth is real. Prices are deflating but cumulative inflation and pre-tariff buying are still impacting sales. Growth: 24>25: 3.8%; Avg 19>25: +6.4%, Real: +3.0%.

Restaurants – They were hit hard by the pandemic and didn’t begin recovery until March 2021. However, they have had strong growth since then, exceeding $1T for the 1^st time in 2023. April $ are up vs 24 and they have the biggest lifts vs 21 & 19. Inflation was stable at 3.8% but is now +25.4% vs 21 and +30.5% vs 19. Their 6.9% YOY lift is 23.4% above their +5.6% 92>24 avg. They are all positive again, but just 36.4% of their 58.2% growth since 2019 is real. They are 3^rd in performance behind Relevant & Total Retail. Recovery started late but inflation started early. Growth: 4.6%; Avg 19>25: +7.9%, Real: +3.2%. They just account for 13.7% of Total Retail $, but their strong growth has helped Total Retail.

Auto (Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers) – They worked to overcome the stay-at-home attitude with great deals and advertising. They finished 2020 up 1% vs 2019 and hit a record $1.48T in 2021 but much of it was due to skyrocketing inflation. In 22, sales got on a rollercoaster. Inflation started to drop mid-year, but it caused 4 down months in actual $. Their YE real 2022 sales numbers were even worse, -8.2% vs 21 and -8.9% vs 19. 2023 started a true sales rollercoaster but the $ hit a record, $1.595T. $ fell in Jan 24, grew Feb>Mar, fell Apr, grew May, fell June, grew Jul>Aug, fell Sep, grew Oct, fell Nov, grew Dec, fell Jan>Feb 25, grew in Mar, then fell in Apr. April $ were +8.6% vs 24. (97% above avg – pre-tariff buying). Only real $ vs 21 are negative, but just 32.9% of 19>25 growth is real. Growth: 5.9%; Avg 19>25: +5.9%, Real: +2.1%

Gas Stations – Gas Stations were hit hard by “stay at home”. They started recovery in Mar 21 and inflation began. Sales got on a rollercoaster in 22 but set a record, $583B. Inflation started to slow in Aug 22 and prices slightly deflated in Dec & Feb 23, then strongly fell in Mar>Jul to -20.2%. In Aug they rose to -3.7%. In Sep they were +2.7% but began deflating to -4.2% in Feb 24. In Mar>May 24 their $ grew, fell June, rose July, fell Aug>Dec, rose Jan 25, then fell Feb>Apr. In Apr, $ are -6.5% vs 24 (4.9% avg) and only up vs Apr & Ytd 21 & 19. Real sales are down Ytd vs 21 & 19. Growth: -3.5%; Avg 19>25: +3.5%, Real: -0.4%. They show the cumulative impact of inflation and how deflation can be both positive and negative.

Relevant Retail – Less Auto, Gas and Restaurants – They account for ≈60% of Total Retail $ in a variety of channels, so they took many different paths through the pandemic. Their only down month until Feb 25 was April 2020, and they led the way in Total Retail’s recovery. Sales got on a roller coaster in 2022, but all months set new records with December reaching a new all-time high, $481B, and an annual record of $4.81T. In 2023, the roller coaster continued. A December lift set a new monthly record of $494.7B & an annual record of $4.997T. Sales fell Jan>Feb 24, rose in Mar, fell in Apr, rose in May, fell in June, rose Jul>Aug, fell Sep, rose Oct>Jan 25, fell in Feb, then rose Mar>Apr. The Apr 5.3% YOY lift is 13% above their 92>24 avg of +4.7%. They are all positive again and 54% of their 47.1% 19>25 growth is real – #1 in performance. Growth: 3.9%; Avg 19>25: +6.6%, Real: +3.8%. In 2024 their inflation rate dropped from 3.2% to 0.1%, stabilized at 0.5% Dec>Jan, rose to 0.7% in March, then slowed to 0.6% in April. Inflation is low but its cumulative impact can slow growth. We saw this in Feb>Mar. In April we saw some pre-tarifflation fear buying. We’ll see what happens next.

YOY inflation has slowed, but cumulative & impending lifts can affect sales. In April, 2 actual YOY $ comparisons were negative, the same as March. In April, there were 4 real drops, down from 5 in March. In March, Gas Stations were down vs 24 and only Restaurants & Auto had above avg lifts. In April, Gas Stations were again down but the YOY lifts for all other Big Groups were above avg. Also in April, 3 big groups were again all positive. Relevant Retail has now been all positive in 9 of the last 11 months. March was pretty good. April was better in some ways, but the recovery is still slow.

Here’s a more detailed look at April by Key Channels (98% of Apr Ytd Rel Retl $)

• Relevant Retail: Growth: +3.9%; Avg 19>25: +6.6%, Real: +3.8%. Only 2 were up from March. Vs Apr 24: 10 were up, Real: 10, Vs Apr 21: 6 were up, Real: 5. Vs 19: Only Dept Stores were down – both actually & really.
• All Department Stores – This group was struggling before the pandemic hit them hard. They began recovery in March 2021. Sales are +2.8% from March but only their actual Ytd numbers vs 21 are positive. Their -0.3% Apr YOY drop is 15 times better than their -4.5% avg decrease. Growth: -2.1%; Avg 19>25: -5.4%, Real: -7.0%.
• Club/SuprCtr/$- They fueled a big part of the recovery because they focus on value which has broad consumer appeal. $ales are -2.1% from March, but they are positive in all measurements. However, only 43.9% of their 35.8% 19>25 lift is real. Their 5.4% YOY Apr lift is -34% below their 92>24 avg of +8.2%. Growth: 2.7%; Avg 19>25: +5.2%, Real: +2.5%.
• Grocery- They depend on frequent purchases so their changes are usually less radical. Actual $ are -1.1% from March but positive in all actual comparisons. Cumulative inflation has hit them hard as real $ are down vs 21 and only 10% of 19>25 growth is real. However, their 5.5% YOY April lift is 82% above avg. Growth: 3.0%; Avg 19>25: +4.9%, Real: +0.5%.
• Health/Drug Stores – Many stores are essential, but consumers visit less frequently than Grocery stores. $ are -0.9% from March but they are positive in all comparisons. Inflation has been relatively low so 66% of their 33.4% 19>25 growth is real. Their +8.8% YOY lift vs Apr 24 is 76% above avg. Growth: 6.5%; Avg 19>25: +4.9%, Real: +3.4%
• Clothing and Accessories – Clothes mattered less when you stayed home. That changed in March 2021 with strong growth through 2022. Actual Sales are -1.8% from March, but they are only really down vs Apr 21. 66% of their 19>25 growth is real. $ are +5.9% vs Apr 24, double the avg lift (pre-tariff buying). Growth: 3.1%; Avg 19>25: +2.9%, Real: +1.9%
• Home Furnishings – In mid-2020 consumers’ focus turned to their homes and furniture became a priority. Prices are still deflating but they were high in 22. $ are -3.3% from March but are only actually & really down monthly & Ytd vs 21. Only 27% of their 19>25 growth is real. YOY Apr lift: +7.7%, 150% above average (more prre-tariff buying). Growth: 6.2%; Avg 19>25: +3.1%, Real: +0.9%
• Electronic & Appliances – This channel has had many issues. Sales fell in Apr>May of 2020 and didn’t reach 2019 levels until March 21. $ are -5.0% from March but they are only actually down vs Apr 21 & Ytd vs 24. Their strong deflation shows in high real numbers. Sales are +0.4% vs Apr 24, -81% below avg. Growth: -1.9%; Avg 19>25: +0.4%, Real: +3.6%.
• Building Material, Farm & Garden & Hardware – They truly benefited from the consumers’ focus on home. In 2022 the lift slowed as inflation grew to double digits. Prices turned up in April but sales are +14.0% from March. Actual $ are only down vs Apr 21. Real sales are only down vs Apr 21 and Ytd vs 21. However, just 23.5% of their 19>25 sales growth is real. YOY sales vs Apr 24 were +1.9%, -56% below avg. Growth: 0.3%; Avg 19>25: +4.6%, Real: +1.2%.
• Sporting Goods, Hobby and Book Stores – Consumers turned their attention to recreation and Sporting Goods stores sales took off. Book & Hobby Stores recovered more slowly. They have been on a sales rollercoaster since June 24 and $ are -5.7% from March. Actual & real sales are only up vs Apr 24 & 19. Real Ytd sales vs 24 are also up. 84% of their 19>25 growth is real. YOY Sales vs Apr 24 are +3.4%, 12% above avg. Growth: -1.0%; Avg 19>25: +3.9%, Real: +3.4%.
• All Miscellaneous Stores – Pet Stores have been a key part of the strong and growing recovery of this group. They finished 2020 at +0.9% but sales took off in March 21 and have continued to grow. Sales are -0.2% vs March but positive in all comparisons. They are 2^nd in the % increases vs 19 & vs 21 and 73.2% of their 53.3% 19>25 growth is real. Plus, their 5.1% YOY Apr lift is 17% more than their 92>24 avg of +4.4%. Growth: +6.2%; Avg 19>25: +7.4%, Real: 5.6%.
• NonStore Retailers – 90% of their $ comes from Internet/Mail Order/TV. The pandemic accelerated online spending. They ended 2020 +21.4%. The growth continued in 2021 as sales exceeded $100B for the 1^st time and they broke the $1 Trillion barrier. $ are -0.4% from March and their YOY lift of 5.5% vs Apr 24 is -46% below their 10.2% avg. However, they are positive in all comparisons and 82% of their 116.0% 19>25 growth is real. Growth: 6.1%; Avg 19>25: +13.7%, Real: +11.8%.

Note: Almost without exception, online sales by brick ‘n mortar retailers are recorded with their regular store sales.

Recap – The Retail recovery from the pandemic was largely driven by Relevant Retail and by the end of 2021 it had become very widespread. In 2022, there was a new challenge, the worst inflation in 40 years. Overall, inflation has slowed considerably from its June 22 peak and 7 channels, doing 44% of Relevant Retail’s 2025 $, are currently deflating (the same # as Mar). Any deflation can help the Retail situation. As expected, $ fell from March for 9 channels but the drops were usually smaller than average so the big lift for Bldg/Farm was enough to push Relevant Retail to +0.2% – a true rarity (avg chge: -1.1%). Their 5.3% lift vs April 24 was also above avg, +13.2%. 10 of 11 smaller channels had a $ increase vs 24 and 6 were above avg, up from 5 in March. Also, in both March & April, 3 big groups but only 4 Advance smaller channels were actually and really “all positive”. Relevant Retail has now been all positive in 9 of the last 11 months. The biggest concern is still YOY drops and smaller lifts. Monthly, the situation is improving. The YOY lifts vs Apr 24 for Relevant Retail and 6 of 11 smaller channels (41% of Relevant Retail’s 2025 $) were above their 92>24 average. However, ytd vs 24 the Relevant Retail lift is -18% below avg and only 3 smaller channels were above avg. The Retail recovery still has a way to go.

Finally, here are the details and updated inflation rates for the CPIs used to calculate the impact of inflation on retail groups and channels. This includes special aggregate CPIs created with the instruction and guidance of personnel from the US BLS. I also researched data from the last Economic Census to review the share of sales by product category for the various channels to help in selecting what expenditures to include in specific aggregates. Of course, none of these specially created aggregates are 100% accurate but they are much closer than the overall CPI or available aggregates. The data also includes the CPI changes vs 2021 to show cumulative inflation.

Monthly YOY CPI changes of 0.2% or more are highlighted. (Green = lower; Pink = higher)

Here are some answers to some obvious questions. Note: Overall Inflation slowed but Bldg/Farm had a significant lift.

1. Why is the group for Non-store different from the Internet?
   • Non-store is not all internet. It also includes Fuel Oil Dealers, the non-motor fuel Energy Commodity.
2. Why is there no Food at home included in Non-store or Internet?
   • Online Grocery purchasing is becoming popular but almost all is from companies whose major business is brick ‘n mortar. These online sales are recorded under their primary channel.
3. 5 Channels have the same CPI aggregate but represent a variety of business types.
   • They also have a wide range of product types. Rather than try to build aggregates of a multitude of small expenditure categories, it seemed better to eliminate the biggest, influential groups that they don’t sell. This method is not perfect, but it is certainly closer than any existing aggregate.
4. Why are Grocery and Supermarkets only tied to the Grocery CPI?
   • According to the Economic Census, 76% of their sales comes from Grocery products. Grocery Products are the driver. The balance of their sales comes from a collection of a multitude of categories.
5. What about Drug/Health Stores only being tied to Medical Commodities.
   • An answer similar to the one for Grocery/Supermarkets. However, in this case Medical Commodities account for over 80% of these stores’ total sales.
6. Why do SuperCtrs/Clubs and $ Stores have the same CPI?
   • While the Big Stores sell much more fresh groceries, Groceries account for ¼ of $ Store sales. Both Channels generally offer most of the same product categories, but the actual product mix is different.

 

In March, YOY Commodities’ inflation slowed to 0.05% from 0.6%. Even with a very low inflation rate, high cumulative inflation vs 21 can still impact consumer spending and slow $ales growth.  We saw more evidence of this in March. Total Retail $ were +4.2% vs 24, -16% below the average 92>24 change of +5.0%. Relevant Retail was worse, +3.4%, -29% below the March average of +4.8%. The situation is complex, but the recovery is slowly restarting. We’ll continue to track the retail market with data from 2 reports provided by the Census Bureau and factor in a targeted CPI.

The Census Bureau Reports are the Monthly and the Advance Retail Sales Reports. Both are derived from sales data gathered from retailers across the U.S. and are published monthly at the same time. The Advance Report has a smaller sample size so it can be published quickly – about 2 weeks after month end. The Monthly Report includes data from all respondents, so it takes longer to compile the data – about 6 weeks. Although the sample size for the Advance report is smaller, the results over the years have proven it to be statistically accurate with the Monthly reports. The biggest difference is that the full sample in the Monthly report allows us to “drill” a little deeper into the retail channels.

We will begin with the February Monthly Report and then go to the March Advance Report. Our focus is comparing to last year but also 21 & 19. We’ll show both actual and the “real” change in sales as we factor inflation into the data.

Both reports include the following:

• Total Retail, Restaurants, Auto, Gas Stations and Relevant Retail (removing Restaurants, Auto and Gas)
• Individual Channel Data – This is more detailed in the Monthly reports, and we’ll focus on Pet Relevant Channels.

The data will be presented in detailed charts to facilitate visual comparison between groups/channels. The charts will show 11 separate measurements. To save space they will be displayed in a stacked bar format for the channel charts.

• Current Month change – % & $ vs previous month
• Current Month change – % & $ vs same month last year and vs 2021.
  • Current Month Real change vs last year and vs 2021 – % factoring in inflation
• Current Ytd change – % & $ for this year vs last year, 2021 & 2019.
  • Current Ytd Real change % for this year vs last year and vs 2021 and 2019
• Monthly & Ytd $ & CPIs for this year vs last year and vs 2021 which are targeted by channel will also be shown. (CPI Details are at the end of the report)

First, the February Monthly. All were down from January and there were 5 actual YOY sales drops – all vs 24. We should note: Gas Stations are selling less product Ytd than in 2021 & 2019. No group is “all positive” – a significant change from 4 in January. Relevant Retail has been all positive in 11 of the last 15 months and in 7 of the last 9. ($ are Not Seasonally Adjusted)

The February Monthly is $2.7B more than the Advance report. Restaurants: +$1.0B; Auto: -$1.1B; Gas Stations: +$0.2B Relevant Retail: +$2.6B. Relevant Retail was the driver in the $ales decrease vs January, but all big groups were down. A Jan>Feb decrease in Total Retail  has happened in 64% of the years since 1992. However, the -3.5% drop was 7 times the -0.5% average. There were 5 YOY drops in actual sales vs none in January. There were 8 “real” sales drops (only 2 in Jan) and no group was “all positive”. Restaurants still have the biggest increases vs 21 & 19 but Relevant Retail stayed at the top of “real” performance vs 2019. However, only 54% of their growth is real.

Now, let’s see how some Key Pet Relevant channels did in February (81% of Feb Rel Retl $)

Overall– All 11 were down from January. Vs Feb 24, 5 were actually and 4 “really” up. Vs Feb 21, 11 were up but only 6 were real increases. Vs 2019, The only negative was Off/Gift/Souv. They were actually & really down.

• Building Material Stores – The pandemic focus on home has produced sales growth of 32.1% since 2019. Prices for the Bldg/Matl group have inflated 19.9% from 21 and 22.0% from 2019 which is having an impact. Sales vs January were -4.4% for HomeCtr/Hdwe and -3.4% for Farm Stores. Vs other years, actual $ are only down monthly vs 24 for both & Ytd vs 24 for HomeCtrs. In Real $, both are up vs 2019 and Farm Stores are up Ytd vs 24. Plus, only 16% of the Building Materials group’s 19>25 lift was real. Avg 19>25 Growth: HomeCtr/Hdwe: 3.9%, Real: 0.5%; Farm: 5.4%, Real: 1.9%
• Food & Drug – Both are truly essential. Except for the pandemic food binge buying, they tend to have smaller changes in $. In terms of inflation, the Grocery rate is now 17% lower than the rate for Drug/Med products. Drug Stores are positive in all measurements and 62% of their 2019>25 growth is real. Supermarkets’ actual $ are up in all comparisons. They are only “really” down monthly vs 2024 & 2021 and Ytd vs 2021. However, only 14.1% of their 19>25 increase is real growth. Avg 19>25 Growth: Supermarkets: +5.1%, Real: +0.7%; Drug Stores: +4.7%, Real: +3.1%.
• Sporting Goods Stores – They also benefited from the pandemic in that consumers turned to self-entertainment, especially sports & outdoor activities. Sales are down -3.7% from January, and their only positives are actual and real vs Feb 21 & 2019. Prices are still deflating, -5.3% vs 24. Deflation started in April 23 and is a big change from +1.1% in 22>23 and +7.9% in 21>22. The result is that 72.4% of their 36.2% lift since 2019 is real. Avg 19>25 Growth Rate is: +5.3%; Real: +4.0%.
• Gen Mdse Stores – All actual & real sales were up for Club/SupCtrs. $ Stores are only actually & really down vs Feb 24 and really down Ytd vs 24. Discount Dept Stores are only actually up vs 2021 & 2019. Real sales are only positive vs 2019 & only 3% of their growth since 2019 is real. The other channels have an average of 49.5% in real growth. Avg 19>25 Growth: SupCtr/Club: 5.9%, Real: 3.1%; $/Value Strs: +5.5%, Real: +2.8%; Disc. Dept. Strs: +1.7%, Real: 0.1%.
• Office, Gift & Souvenir Stores – After a -33% drop last month, sales fell -6.5% from January. However, they are only actually & really down vs 2019 & vs Feb 24. They are also really down vs Feb 21. Their recovery started late, but their progress may be slowly restarting again. Avg Growth Rate: -0.4%, Real: -1.9%
• Internet/Mail Order – Sales are -4.9% from January but still set a new February record of $103.2B. All measurements are positive, but their YOY growth, +3.5%, is only 24% of their average since 2019. However, 83.8% of their 128.4% growth since 2019 is real. Avg Growth: +14.8%, Real: +12.9%. As expected, they are by far the growth leader since 2019.
• A/O Miscellaneous – Pet Stores are 22>24% of total $. In May 2020 they began their recovery which reached a record level of $100B for the first time in 2021. In 2022 their sales dipped in January, July, Sept>Nov, rose in December, fell in Jan>Feb 23, grew Mar>May, fell Jun>Aug, rose Sep>Nov, fell Dec>Jan 24, grew Feb>May, fell Jun>Sep, grew Oct, fell Nov, rose Dec, then fell Jan>Feb. All measurements are again positive and they are in 2^nd place, behind the Internet, in the % increase vs 19 and vs 21. Also, 79% of their 74.9% growth since 2019 is real. Average 19>25 Growth: +9.8%, Real: +8.0%

Feb had its usual drop vs Jan, but the Relative Retail drop was 2.4 times bigger than the avg. All big & small channels were down. The YOY Feb lift of +0.5% was 90% below avg for Relevant Retl and 6 smaller channels and all big groups were down. Prices are deflating in 5 channels (7 in Jan) but cumulative inflation still impacts $ as only 6 channels were really up vs Feb 21. The Retail Recovery has paused. The Feb commodities CPI was 0.6% but slowed to 0.05% in Mar. Let’s see if it impacts Retail.

Feb>Mar sales were up for all. A Feb>Mar Total Retail lift has happened every year but 2020 since 1992 and the 14.9% lift is 11.7% above avg. There were 2 YOY $ drops. There were 5 in February. $ for all Big Groups but Gas Stations were up vs Mar 24, but the Total Retail lift of 4.2% vs Mar 24 was 15.7% below their +5.0% 92>24 avg. The Relevant Retail 3.4% increase vs 24 was also significantly below their +4.8% avg (-29%). Inflation is still a factor. The CPI for all commodities slowed to 0.05% but it is 16.7% vs 21. The inflation surge was just beginning back then. There is some other pretty good “real” news. 6 “real” measurements were down. In February, there were 8. Also in February, no group was all positive. In March, Total & Relevant Retail are both all positive. That’s 8 of the last 10 months for Relevant Retail.

Overall Inflation Reality– The Total Retail CPI fell to +0.05% but the $ lift vs 24 was -16% below avg. Restaurant inflation grew to +3.8% and their sales lift was 30% below avg. Gas prices fell to -9.8%, but they are still in turmoil. Auto inflation rose to 0.3% but it is still +18.9% vs 21. Their sales grew 9.8% vs 24 (79% above avg – pre-tariff buying). Inflation rose to 0.7% for Relevant Retail. Their YOY lift was 29% below avg but they are again all positive. Slow progress has restarted.

Total Retail – Since Jun 20, every month but Apr 23, Jun 24 & Feb 25 has set a monthly $ales record. In 2023>24, Sales were on a roller coaster. Up Jul>Aug, down Sept, up Oct>Dec, down Jan 24, up Feb>Mar, down April, up May, down Jun, up Jul>Aug, down in Sep, up Oct>Jan 25, down in Feb>Mar. Prices are +0.05% but YOY sales are +4.2%, 15.7% below the 92>24 avg change of +5.0%. However, 42.1% of the 19>25 growth is real. Inflation is low but cumulative inflation is still having an impact. Growth: 24>25: 2.8%; Avg 19>25: +6.4%, Real: +2.9%.

Restaurants – They were hit hard by the pandemic and didn’t begin recovery until March 2021. However, they have had strong growth since then, exceeding $1T for the 1^st time in 2023. March $ are up vs 24 and they have the biggest lifts vs 21 & 19. Inflation rose to 3.8% in March and is now +25.3% vs 21 and +30.3% vs 19. Their 4.2% YOY lift is 30.1% below their +6.0% 92>24 avg. Only real Ytd vs 24 is negative, but just 35.7% of their 56.6% growth since 2019 is real. They are 3^rd in performance behind Relevant & Total Retail. Recovery started late but inflation started early. Growth: 2.8%; Avg 19>25:+7.8%, Real: +3.1%.They just account for 13.7% of Total Retail $, but their strong growth has helped Total Retail.

Auto (Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers) – They worked to overcome the stay-at-home attitude with great deals and advertising. They finished 2020 up 1% vs 2019 and hit a record $1.48T in 2021 but much of it was due to skyrocketing inflation. In 22, sales got on a rollercoaster. Inflation started to drop mid-year, but it caused 4 down months in actual $. Their YE real 2022 sales numbers were even worse, -8.2% vs 21 and -8.9% vs 19. 2023 started a true sales rollercoaster but the $ set a new record, $1.595T. $ fell in Jan 24, grew Feb>Mar, fell Apr, grew May, fell June, grew Jul>Aug, fell Sep, grew Oct, fell Nov, grew Dec, fell Jan>Feb, then grew in Mar. Mar $ were +9.8% vs 24. (79% above avg – pretariff buying). Only real $ monthly & Ytd vs 21 are negative, but only 31.3% of 19>25 growth is real. Growth: 4.9%; Avg 19>25: +5.8%, Real: +2.0%

Gas Stations – Gas Stations were hit hard by “stay at home”. They started recovery in Mar 21 and inflation began. Sales got on a rollercoaster in 22 but set a record, $583B. Inflation started to slow in Aug and prices slightly deflated in Dec & Feb 23, then strongly fell in Mar>Jul to -20.2%. In Aug they rose to -3.7%. In Sep they were +2.7% but began deflating to -4.2% in Feb 24. In Mar>May their $ grew, fell June, rose July, fell Aug>Dec, rose Jan, fell Feb>Mar. In Mar, $ are -4.5% vs 24 and only up vs Mar 21 & Ytd vs 21 & 19. Real sales are down vs Mar 21 & Ytd vs 21 & 19. Growth: -2.0%; Avg 19>25: +3.9%, Real: -0.6%. They show the cumulative impact of inflation and how deflation can be both positive and negative.

Relevant Retail – Less Auto, Gas and Restaurants – They account for ≈60% of Total Retail $ in a variety of channels, so they took many different paths through the pandemic. Their only down month until Feb 25 was April 2020, and they led the way in Total Retail’s recovery. Sales got on a roller coaster in 2022, but all months set new records with December reaching a new all-time high, $481B, and an annual record of $4.81T. In 2023, the roller coaster continued. A December lift set a new monthly record of $494.7B & an annual record of $4.997T. Sales fell Jan>Feb 24, rose in Mar, fell in Apr, rose in May, fell in June, rose Jul>Aug, fell Sep, rose Oct>Jan 25, fell in Feb, then rose in Mar. The Mar 3.4% YOY lift is 29% below their 92>24 avg of +4.8%. However, they are all positive again and 54% of their 47.0 % 19>25 growth is real – #1 in performance. Growth: 2.6%; Avg 19>25: +6.6%, Real: +3.8%. In 2024 their inflation rate dropped from 3.2% to 0.1%, stabilized at 0.5% Dec>Jan, then rose to 0.6% in Feb & 0.7% in Mar. Inflation is low but its cumulative impact slows growth and can even cause drops. We saw this in Feb>Mar. We’ll see what happens in the upcoming months.

Inflation has slowed, but its cumulative effect can be negative. In Feb, 6 actual YOY $ comparisons for all big groups were negative. In Mar, only 2 were down. In Feb, there were 8 real drops. In Mar, there were 6. In Feb, all were down in YOY lifts vs 24. In March, only Gas Stations were down, but the lifts for all but Auto were significantly below avg. Finally, in Feb, no big group was all positive in YOY comparisons. In Mar, Total & Relevant Retail were all positive. Relevant Retail has now been all positive in 8 of the last 10 months. February was very bad. March was markedly better, but the recovery is still slow.

Here’s a more detailed look at March by Key Channels (98% of Ytd Rel Retl $)

• Relevant Retail: Growth: +2.6%; Avg: +6.6%, Real: +3.8%. All 11 were up from Feb. Vs Mar 24: 10 were up, Real: 9, Vs Mar 21: 6 were up, Real: 5. Vs 19: Only Dept Stores were down – both actually & really.
• All Department Stores – This group was struggling before the pandemic hit them hard. They began recovery in March 2020. Sales are +12.6% from February but only their actual Ytd numbers vs 21 are positive. Their -5.5% Mar YOY drop is 20 times bigger than their -0.3% avg decrease. Growth: -4.0%; Avg 19>25: -0.4%, Real: -2.0%.
• Club/SuprCtr/$- They fueled a big part of the recovery because they focus on value which has broad consumer appeal. $ales are +13.5% from Feb, and they are positive in all measurements. However, only 48.1% of their 39.5% 19>25 lift is real. Their 1.5% YOY Mar lift is -82% below their 92>24 avg of +8.4%. Growth: 2.8%; Avg 19>25: +5.7%, Real: +2.9%.
• Grocery- They depend on frequent purchases so their changes are usually less radical. Actual $ are +8.6% from Feb and positive in all YOY comparisons. However cumulative inflation has hit them hard. Real $ are down vs Mar 24, Mar 21 & Ytd 21. Plus, only 10% of 19>25 growth is real. Their 1.0% YOY lift is -71% below avg. Growth: 2.2%; Avg 19>25: +4.9%, Real: +0.5%.
• Health/Drug Stores – Many stores are essential, but consumers visit less frequently than Grocery stores. $ are +8.9% from Feb and they are positive in all comparisons. Inflation has been relatively low so 63% of their 31.4% 19>25 growth is real. Their +6.4% YOY lift vs Mar 24 is 25% above avg. Growth: 4.3%; Avg 19>25: +4.7%, Real: +3.1%
• Clothing and Accessories – Clothes mattered less when you stayed home. That changed in March 2021 with strong growth through 2022. Actual Sales are +18.6% from Feb, and they are only really down vs Mar 21. 67% of their 19>25 growth is real. $ are +1.8% vs Mar 24, -67% below avg. Growth: 1.3%; Avg 19>25: +3.1%, Real:+2.1%
• Home Furnishings – In mid-2020 consumers’ focus turned to their homes and furniture became a priority. Prices are still deflating but they were high in 22. $ are +9.8% from Feb and only actually down vs Mar 21. They are really down monthly & Ytd vs 21. Only 27% of their 19>25 growth is real. YOY Mar lift: +6.0%, 62% above avg. Growth: 4.9%; Avg 19>25: +3.1%, Real: +0.9%
• Electronic & Appliances – This channel has had many issues. Sales fell in Apr>May of 2020 and didn’t reach 2019 levels until March 21. $ are +8.3% from Feb and they are only actually down vs Mar 21 & Ytd vs 24. Their strong deflation shows in high real numbers. Sales are +1.5% vs Mar 24, -41% below avg. Growth: -1.9%; Avg 19>25: 0.15%, Real: +3.4%.
• Building Material, Farm & Garden & Hardware –They truly benefited from the consumers’ focus on home. In 2022 the lift slowed as inflation grew to double digits. Prices are deflating again, and sales are +26.8% from Feb. Actual $ are only up vs Mar 24 and Ytd 21 & 19. Real sales are only up vs Mar 24 and Ytd vs 24 & 19. Just 23% of their 19>25 sales growth is real. YOY sales vs Mar 24 were +4.2%, -7% below avg. Growth: -0.04%; Avg 19>25: +4.5%, Real: +1.1%.
• Sporting Goods, Hobby and Book Stores – Consumers turned their attention to recreation and Sporting Goods stores sales took off. Book & Hobby Stores recovered more slowly. They have been on a sales rollercoaster since June and $ are+23.6% from Feb. Actual & real sales are only up vs Mar 24 & 19. Real Ytd sales vs 24 are also up. 84% of their 19>25 growth is real. YOY Sales vs Mar 24 are +0.1%, -98% below avg. Growth: -2.5%; Avg 19>25: +4.0%, Real: +3.4%.
• All Miscellaneous Stores – Pet Stores have been a key part of the strong and growing recovery of this group. They finished 2020 at +0.9% but sales took off in March 21 and have continued to grow. Sales are +14.7% vs Feb and positive in all comparisons. They are 2^nd in the % increases vs 19 & vs 21 and 73.9% of their 55.1% 19>25 growth is real. Plus, their 6.7% YOY Mar lift is 40% more than their 92>24 avg of +4.8%. Growth: +6.2%; Avg 19>25: +7.6%, Real: 5.9%.
• NonStore Retailers – 90% of their $ales comes from Internet/Mail Order/TV. The pandemic accelerated online spending. They ended 2020 +21.4%. The growth continued in 2021 as sales exceeded $100B for the 1^st time and they broke the $1 Trillion barrier. $ are +8.5% from Feb but their YOY lift of 6.1% is -38% below their 9.8% avg. However, they are positive in all comparisons and 82% of their 112.7% 19>25 growth is real. Growth: 4.2%; Avg 19>25: +13.4%, Real: +11.6%.

Note: Almost without exception, online sales by brick ‘n mortar retailers are recorded with their regular store sales.

Recap – The Retail recovery from the pandemic was largely driven by Relevant Retail and by the end of 2021 it had become very widespread. In 2022, there was a new challenge, the worst inflation in 40 years. Overall, inflation has slowed considerably from its June 22 peak and 7 channels are currently deflating (up from 5 in Feb). Any deflation can help the Retail Situation. As expected, $ rose from February for all 11 channels but the +12.1% lift for Relevant Retail was slightly below avg (-0.6%) and their +3.4% lift vs March 24 was -29% below avg. 10 of 11 smaller channels had a $ increase vs 24 but only 3 of those lifts were above avg. Also in February, no big groups and only 3 channels were both actually and really “all positive”. In March the situation was a little better. 2 big groups and 4 channels were all positive. Relevant Retail has now been all positive in 8 of the last 10 months. The biggest concern is still YOY drops and smaller lifts. This has become widespread. As expected,  $ales in March were up from February, but the monthly performance, especially YOY was still below par. The Retail Market recovery has restarted but progress is slow.

Finally, here are the details and updated inflation rates for the CPIs used to calculate the impact of inflation on retail groups5 and channels. This includes special aggregate CPIs created with the instruction and guidance of personnel from the US BLS. I also researched data from the last Economic Census to review the share of sales by product category for the various channels to help in selecting what expenditures to include in specific aggregates. Of course, none of these specially created aggregates are 100% accurate but they are much closer than the overall CPI or available aggregates. The data also includes the CPI changes vs 2021 to show cumulative inflation.

Monthly YOY CPI changes of 0.2% or more are highlighted. (Green = lower; Pink = higher)

Here are some answers to some obvious questions. Note: Overall Inflation slowed but grocery prices had a significant lift.

1. Why is the group for Non-store different from the Internet?
   • Non-store is not all internet. It also includes Fuel Oil Dealers, the non-motor fuel Energy Commodity.
2. Why is there no Food at home included in Non-store or Internet?
   • Online Grocery purchasing is becoming popular but almost all is from companies whose major business is brick ‘n mortar. These online sales are recorded under their primary channel.
3. 6 Channels have the same CPI aggregate but represent a variety of business types.
   • They also have a wide range of product types. Rather than try to build aggregates of a multitude of small expenditure categories, it seemed better to eliminate the biggest, influential groups that they don’t sell. This method is not perfect, but it is certainly closer than any existing aggregate.
4. Why are Grocery and Supermarkets only tied to the Grocery CPI?
   • According to the Economic Census, 76% of their sales comes from Grocery products. Grocery Products are the driver. The balance of their sales comes from a collection of a multitude of categories.
5. What about Drug/Health Stores only being tied to Medical Commodities.
   • An answer similar to the one for Grocery/Supermarkets. However, in this case Medical Commodities account for over 80% of these stores’ total sales.
6. Why do SuperCtrs/Clubs and $ Stores have the same CPI?
   • While the Big Stores sell much more fresh groceries, Groceries account for ¼ of $ Store sales. Both Channels generally offer most of the same product categories, but the actual product mix is different.