Archive for category: Pet Market Distribution Channels

Time for our monthly update on U.S. retail sales by channel. The current COVID-19 crisis has caused turmoil in the Retail Marketplace. Consumer spending behavior has changed and continues to evolve. In this report we will track the changes and migration between channels. We will do that with data from two reports provided by the U.S. Census Bureau.

The Reports are the Monthly Retail Sales Report and the Advance Retail Sales Report. Both are derived from sales data gathered from retailers across the U.S. and are published monthly at the same time. The Advance Report has a smaller sample size so it can be published quickly – approximately 2 weeks after month end. The Monthly Final Report includes data from all respondents, so it takes longer to compile the data – about 6 weeks. Although the sample size for the Advance report is smaller, the results over the years have proven it to be statistically accurate with the final monthly reports. The biggest difference is that the full sample in the Final report allows us to “drill” a little deeper into the retail channels.

This means to get the full picture in our monthly channel update we need to look at the latest release of both reports. We will begin with the Final Retail Report from August and then move to the Advance Retail Report for September. This will also allow us to better track the consumers’ evolving spending behavior in terms of channel migration.

Both reports include the following:

• Total Retail, Restaurants, Auto, Gas Stations and Relevant Retail (removing Restaurants, Auto and Gas)
• Individual Channel Data – This will be more detailed in the “Final” reports and we fill focus on Pet Relevant Channels

The information will be presented in detailed charts to facilitate visual comparison between groups/channels of:

• Current Month change – % & $ vs previous month
• Current Month change – % & $ vs same month in 2019
• Current YTD change – % & $ vs 2019
• Monthly and Year To Date $ will also be shown for each group/channel

We’ll start with the August Final report. The retail market hit bottom in April then began a slow recovery, which peaked in $ in July. Here are the major retail groups. (The Data in all graphs is Actual, Not Seasonally Adjusted)

The final total is $0.8B more than the Advance report projected a month ago. All but Restaurants (-$0.2B) were up slightly from projections. Relevant Retail: +$0.5B; Auto:+$0.2B; Gas Stations:+$0.2B. $ales were down from the July peak in all but restaurants. However, driven by Relevant Retail, +$18B and Auto, +$2B, monthly sales were up $1.5B vs 2019.

The Spring Lift is usually over by July but the COVID crisis has pushed the timing back as monthly sales continue to beat 2019 into August. However, all but Relevant Retail continue to be down YTD vs 2019.

Now, let’s see how some Key Pet Relevant channels were doing in August.

• Overall – Sales in 8 of 11 groups were down vs July, but 9 of 11 again showed increases vs same month in 2019.
• Building Material Stores – This group has their biggest annual lift in Spring. This is unchanged and even stronger. While sales peaked in June, they’re still showing strong increases vs 2019. Although Sporting Goods stores are not included in this group, they have a similar Spring lift pattern. Their sales took off in May, peaked in June but continued to grow vs 2019. In June their YTD $ vs 2019 turned positive and by August they were up 9.9%.
• Food & Drug – Despite dips in June & August, Supermarkets are maintaining incredibly strong growth vs 2019. Drug Stores $ slowed in August after strong growth in June and July but remain positive compared to 2019.
• General Merchandise Stores – Sales in Clubs/SuperCtrs slowed in June but bounced back and are still strong vs 2019. Despite slowed sales in June>August, $ Stores are showing exceptional strength vs 2019. Discount Dept. store sales were generally slowing before the pandemic. This trend has continued despite a small Summer lift.
• Office, Gift and Souvenir Stores – They were slow to re-open. Sales are growing, but this group was hit hard.
• Internet/Mail Order – The pandemic has accelerated this channel’s growth vs 2019. Sales peaked in July, but the crisis has introduced many new consumers to online shopping and the behavior is likely to become habitual.
• A/O Miscellaneous – This is a group of small to midsized specialty retailers – chains and independents. It includes Florists, Art Stores and Pet Stores (22 to 24% of total $). Pet Stores were usually essential, but most stores were not. The others began reopening in May and the number grew in June which produced an increase vs 2019. Sales peaked in June but were still strong vs 2019 which pushed YTD sales up to +9.4%.

The recovery began in May and continued in June and July as even more businesses began to re-open. The Relevant Retail Segment turned positive in all measurements in May and stayed that way through July. In August, sales fell vs July but were still strong vs 2019. The key drivers in producing positive numbers vs 2019 were the Internet, Supermarkets, SuperCtrs/Clubs/$ Stores and Hdwe/Farm.  How things are progressing? Here are the Advance numbers for September.

April and May were the 2 biggest spending drops in history. In June, monthly sales turned positive for the first time since February. In July the recovery continued. However, it flattened out in Aug/Sept leaving Total Retail still down -$37B YTD.

Total Retail – Total Retail spending fell -$15.5B vs August but was up +7.1% vs September 2019. In February 2020 sales were up $60B, +6.6% YTD versus 2019. Then came COVID-19. Hopefully, we hit bottom at -$112B in May. We began moving in the right direction but have stalled in September, still -$37B YTD and -$97B from February.

Restaurants – The Spending lift ended, down -$1.8B from August and -$8.6B vs September 2019. Things remain Topsy Turvy. August is usually their biggest $ month of the year. January and February, normally the 2 slowest months, are on top in 2020. In February YTD sales were up $9B. Then came the forced closures. Re-openings began in May but ran into problems in the Summer. Delivery/Pickup can’t make up the difference as spending is now down $115.5B YTD.

Automobile & Gas Stations – When you are staying home your car becomes less of a focus in your life. Auto Dealers, both new and used, began combating this attitude with some fantastic deals and a lot of advertising. Monthly $ turned positive versus 2019 in June and have maintained this pace through September. Although sales are down $14.5B YTD, they are up $34.4B vs 2019 in the last 4 months. Gas Station $ales increased in May, June and July over the previous month, but fell in August & September (-$61.9B YTD) People are still not driving as much, for commuting or road trips.

Relevant Retail – Less Auto, Gas and Restaurants – Many non-essential businesses began to shutter their doors in March but there was also a rash of binge/panic buying for “necessities” and a big lift in groceries as consumers focused on home cooking which drove spending up $19B. April brought a full month of closures and an end in binge buying, spending dropped $34B from March. In May, the overall market began to reopen so spending began to move in the right direction. In June and July the $ growth continued but fell in August & September. However, the monthly June>September $ are larger than all months in 2019 but December. The primary drivers have been Nonstore, Grocery and SuperCenters/Clubs & $ Stores along with an enhanced spring lift from the Hardware/Farm and Sporting Goods channels. The Relevant Retail group now has posted positive numbers versus last year and year to date for 5 consecutive months and is up $154.9B YTD (+5.8%) vs 2019. In July it was up +4.9%.

Now let’s look at what is happening in the individual retail channels across America. In September, consumer spending in the relevant retail market grew even more positive versus 2019. Let’s see where the $ came from. These groups are less defined than in the Final Monthly reports and we will look across the whole market, not just pet relevant outlets.

In July, 11 of 13 channels beat last month’s $. In September it was down to only 3. In July, 10 channels beat July 2019. In August, this number was down to 7. By September, the number was back to 10. However, in YTD numbers, 8 are still showing an increase.  The YTD decreases are coming from channels that are primarily nonessential businesses.

After a full month of stay at home and widespread closures there was a surge in May. Things truly opened up in June and July and sales continued to increase. In August and September, they slowed slightly but YTD Relevant Retail Channels are up $154.9B vs 2019. The essential channels are responsible for the YTD lift vs 2019, primarily:

• Nonstore Retailers – Even more consumers are online shopping.
• Food & Beverage, especially Grocery– Restaurant $ are still down so consumers continue to eat & drink at home.
• Bldg Materials/Garden/Farm – A big Spring lift continues through the Summer as consumers focus on their home.
• SuperCtrs/Club/Value/$ Strs – Sales slowed in April but came back in May and continue to grow vs 2019. This group turned the whole Gen Mdse channel positive. It clearly shows that value is still a consumer priority.

Regarding the Individual Large Channels

General Merchandise Stores – Regular Department stores are reopening which has cut the losses for total Department Stores as Discount Department stores continue to slowly fade. Club/SuperCtr/$ stores provided the big positive force. In April consumers dialed back their panic buying and spending on discretionary items was also down significantly. Since May we have seen consumer spending return to a more normal pattern in the big and small stores that promise value.

Food and Beverage, plus Health & Personal Care Stores – The Grocery segment is still driven by increased Food sales due to a slow restart by restaurants, up 10.5%, +$5.8B in September. Monthly Sales in the Health, Personal Care group are up vs 2019 since June. In August and September, the YTD $ turned positive. Drug Store $ growth was a key factor.

Clothing and Accessories; Electronic & Appliances; Home Furnishings – After four consecutive months of growth, Sales Slowed in September. Home Furnishing is the best performer with a slight increase vs August and 3 consecutive monthly increases vs 2019. However, all 3 channels are down significant percentages in YTD sales. Clothing Stores are by far the worst performers. In September they were down 12.0% vs September 2019 and 32.6% YTD.

Building Material, Farm & Garden & Hardware – Sales peaked in the Spring. However, this channel continues to benefit from consumers turning their focus to their home needs, including house and yard repair and improvements. This has increased and extended their Spring lift to Summer. $ were up 23.4% vs September 2019 and up +$37.3B (+12.8%) YTD.

Sporting Goods, Hobby and Book Stores – Book and Hobby stores are open and sales in Sporting Goods stores have taken off as Consumers again sought outdoor recreation. Although September sales fell again from their June peak, they were up 18.3% vs September 2019. YTD sales were down $3.4B in April. In September, this deficit was wiped out as YTD $ were +$0.6B (+1.1%).

All Miscellaneous Stores – This group is mostly small to medium specialty stores – both chains and independents. Pet Stores are essential but most other stores are not, so closures hit this group particularly hard. Sales began to rebound in May and grew through July when they finally beat the monthly sales for 2019. In August and September sales were mixed. Back In February, this group was up $2.6B YTD. Through July,  they were down -$3.2B but moving in the right direction. After a Slow August they are again moving back on track, -$2.7B. However, they have a long road ahead.

NonStore Retailers – 90% of the volume of this group comes from Internet/Mail Order/TV businesses. The COVID-19 crisis has only accelerated the ongoing movement to online retail. In February NonStore was up 8.6% YTD. Despite falling -4.2% from the July $ peak, they are up 20.5%, +$114.3B YTD. Their increase is 74% of the total $ increase for Relevant Retail Channels. They are the clear leader, and their performance far exceeds their 12.9% annual increase in 2019. Since much of their annual increase comes from holiday sales, 2020 could be another great year for NonStore Retailers.

Note: Almost without exception, online sales by brick ‘n mortar retailers are recorded along with their store sales in their regular channel. Whether they are up or down, their online sales are included in the totals.

Recap – April and May saw the 2 biggest year over year monthly sales declines in history. Restaurants, Auto and Gas Stations increased sales from May through July. By September, all had decreased sales. The Auto segment is  showing positive monthly numbers vs 2019 but Restaurants and Gas Stations are still struggling. The Relevant Retail segment has been the only true positive. Although August/September sales were lower than July, monthly and YTD sales vs 2019 are up for 5 consecutive months. However, for many segments in this group there is still a long way to go. In July Total Retail was positive for the second consecutive month but it has turned down since then. We saw a resurgence of the virus and retail restrictions were reimposed in many areas, which contributed to sales declining from July. This is going to be a long battle with no end in sight. We will continue to monitor the data and provide you with regular updates.

The U.S. Retail market reached $6.22 Trillion in 2019 from all channels – Auto Dealers, Supermarkets, Restaurants, Online retailers and even Pet Stores. This year’s increase of $216B (+3.6%) was 23.4% below last year’s increase of $282B. This breaks a string of steadily growing increases which began in 2015. One factor is that fuel prices stabilized, and Gas station revenue flattened out. (Data courtesy of the Census Bureau’s monthly retail trade report.)

In this report we will focus on the top 100 Retailers in the U.S. Market. These companies are the retail elite and account for 39% of the total market. The vast majority also stock and sell a lot of Pet Products. The retail market is constantly evolving which produces some turmoil – mergers, acquisitions, closures. The Top 100 are not immune and you will see changes in ranking but for first time since I began tracking in 2013, the list is the same as last year. The report does contain a lot of data, but we’ll break it up into smaller pieces to make it more digestible. All of the base data on the Top 100 comes from Kantar Research and was published by the National Retail Federation (NRF).

We’ll begin with an overview:

• The total Retail Market grew $216B in 2019 (+3.6%). In 2018 it was +4.9% and in 2017, +4.3%. Although sales are still increasing, the growth rate slowed markedly in 2019.
  • The Top 100 grew $105B (+4.5%). This is less than last year’s +4.8% but significantly better than the total market.
  • The Top 100 generates $2.4 Trillion in revenue, 39.0% of the total U.S. retail market – slightly more than 2018.
• Let’s make the data a bit more relevant. If you remove the revenue from Auto, Restaurant and Gas Stations, the “targeted” retail market for the Pet Industry is $3.7 Trillion – 59.7% of the total market. By the way, the slight gain in share is due to the flattening of Gas Station revenue.
  • If we also remove Restaurant & Gas Station $ from the Top 100, the remaining $2.2T is 36.0% of the total market.
  • … and 60.3% of the $3.7 Trillion “target” market.

The Top 100 generally outperforms the overall market. In 2019 the difference in performance was significant. The lift was driven by the Top 100 targeted retail group, less restaurants and gas stations. Remember, the Top 100 is really a contest. In a “normal” year companies drop out and new ones are added. This can be the result of mergers, acquisitions or simply surging or slumping sales. In 2019 there were no changes. However, here are some significant changes in rank:

• You see the growing strength of the internet.
  • Wayfair moved up 12 spots from #77 to #65
• Sales for these 2 companies continued their downhill slide.
  • Sears from #60 to #75
  • GameStop from #75 to #97

Now let’s start “drilling down” into the specifics of the 2019 Top 100. Here’s a summary of Regular and Online Retailers versus the bundled total for Restaurants & Gas Stations.

• Regular & Online Retailers have 58.4% of the stores but 92.3% of the business, up slightly from 92.1% last year.
• 93.0% of the increase came from Regular/online retailers. However, they are only up 4.6% versus +5.2% in 2018.
• Restaurant sales were up $6.7B (+4.0%) in 2019 and Gas Stations turned positive, +0.62B (+4.2%).
• The overall Store count was up +0.6% versus +0.8% in 2018. The lift was driven by Gas Stations (+9.0% due to an acquisition) and Restaurants (+0.8%). Regular retailers were basically flat (+0.03%).

Now that we have an overview of the Top 100, let’s take a look at the “targeted” retailer segment. There are 82 total companies. How many are buying and selling Pet Products? This will reinforce how Pets have become an integral part of the American Household and how fierce that the competition for the Pet Parents’ $ has become.

• Of 82 companies, 69 are selling some mixture of Pet Products in stores and/or online. (down from 70 in 2018)
  • Their Total Retail Sales of all products is $2.09 Trillion which is…
    • 93.4% of the total business for Regular & Online Retailers in the Top 100
    • 33.6% of the Entire $6.22T U.S. Retail market – from 69 Companies who sell Pet Products.
• 58 Cos. (up from 56), with $1.99T sales sell pet products off the retail shelf in 145,607 stores – 2600 more than 2018.
  • As you can see by the growth in both sales and store count, in store is still the best way to sell pet.
• Online only is another story and the story gets complicated.
  • Amazon includes Whole Foods, which has stores so the Amazon $ are in the “Pet in Store” numbers.
  • 2 traditional Retailers who only sold Pet Products online converted to in store. The others who only sell pet online are losing market share. However, internet only retailers, like Wayfair are showing strong growth

Pet products are an integral part of the strongest retailers and are widespread across the entire U.S. marketplace. Of the Top 100, 145,600 stores carry at least some pet items at retail. There are thousands of additional “pet” outlets including 20,000 Grocery Stores, 10,000 Pet Stores, 16,000 Vet Clinics, 5,000 Pet Services businesses and more. Pet Products are on the shelf in over 200,000 U.S. brick ‘n mortar stores… plus the internet.

Before we analyze the whole list in greater detail let’s take a quick look at the Top 10 retailers in the U.S.

• They did $1.33 Trillion in Sales
  • 54.8% of Top 100 $ales
  • 21.4% of Total U.S. Retail $
• No change in rank (The group is unchanged since 2015)
• Sales are up for all. Amazon leads the way…again.
• Store count is down 500, (-1.4%)

In the next section we will look at the detailed list of the top 100. We’ll sort it by retail channel with subtotals in key columns. We’ll then break it into smaller sections for comments.

I have not done a lot of highlighting however:

• Pet Columns ’19 & ‘18 – a “1” with an orange highlight indicates that products are only sold online
• Rank Columns – Change in rank from 2018: (Note: Acquisitions, Divestitures and Corporate Restructuring can cause big changes in ranking.)
  • Up 4-5 spots = Lt Blue; Up 6 or more = Green
  • Down 4-5 Spots = Yellow; Down 6 or more = Pink

Let’s get started. Remember online sales are included in the sales of all companies

Observations

• After a number of acquisitions over several years, Drug is still in turmoil. Now we are seeing a growing number of closures of unproductive stores. However, sales growth remains strong.
• The Traditional Department store segment continues its overall decline. Nordstrom stores were an exception with small gains in both sales and number of outlets for 2 straight years. Belk, a small chain, had the biggest $ales growth.
  • Sears sales and store count continue to plummet.
  • Saks sold Lord & Taylor in November 2019.
  • Although all carry a few pet items, often online, this channel has never fully embraced Pet Products.
• Much of the growth in the Convenience Store Chains in the Top 100 in recent years has come through acquisitions. In 2019 there were no major acquisitions, but both major chains had small increases in $ales and stores.
• Military Exchanges/Commissaries have added locations in recent years, which fueled the growth in sales. In 2017 they began reducing the number of Army/AF Exchanges. By 2019 this policy had spread to all military groups. 2019 sales were up in the Army/AF group which kept the overall drop in Military Exchg/Commissaries to -$0.06B (-0.5%).
• Auto Parts Stores have become more stable in their growth. All chains increased their store count for the 2^nd consecutive year. Overall, sales were up 5.5% in 2019 versus +2.5% in 2018.
• Among Apparel retailers, the value outlets continue to show strong growth. All three of these chains carry pet products. The Gap sold Old Navy and no longer offers pet products. Ascena closed all Dress Barn stores (650).

Observations

• Amazon continues to drive the evolution of U.S. Retail. Sales are up 267% in 5 years. With the acquisition of Whole Foods in 2017 they also have a small but growing brick ‘n mortar presence in the market.
  • Of the three Phone People, only Apple had a strong year.
  • QVC lost ground in 2019. Sales were down -5.2% and they fell 3 spots to #44 in the ranking.
  • In 2017 a move to online gaming began. GameStop sales continue to fall, and closures grow. They fell 22 spots.
• Signet Jewelry’s sales were down -0.04%. This was bad but better than -3.4% in 2018 and -3.9% in 2017.
• Mass Merchants have 2 of the 4 largest volume retailers in America – Wal-Mart and Costco. Recently, these two companies have driven the growth in this channel. In 2019 Costco was strongest, but all companies increased sales.
  • Wal-Mart had a 2.6% increase in sales which is below last year’s 3.4%. Their business is mixed as SuperCenters continue to grow and their online sales are taking off. However, “regular” Discount Department Stores are losing market share. These trends impact the overall business in both Wal-Mart and Target.
  • Target posted a third consecutive sales increase in 2019, after 3 years of flat or declining revenue.
  • Costco continues its strong growth (+9.3%), building new stores and increasing sales – both in store and online.
  • BJ’s sales were up for the second consecutive year after a string of annual declines from 2013 to 2017.
  • Meijer had small growth in sales and store count in 2019. However, since 2013 they rank third overall in the percentage of sales increase and first in the percentage of store count increase.
• All Home Improvement/Hardware companies increased sales, but overall, the growth slowed a bit, from +4.3% to +3.4%. Store count turned positive but Lowe’s and True Value continued closures. Home Depot (#6) and Lowes (#9) led the way in sales growth, supplying $5.24B (76%) of the $6.88B lift in the category.
• Like 2018 all Home Goods Companies but Bed Bath & Beyond increased sales. They also drove down store count. Sales were up 5.1%, again driven by Wayfair, who entered the top 100 in 2018 and now ranks #65, up 12 from last year.
• Tractor Supply was up 5.9% which is much less than 2018, +11.4%, and below their average growth rate of +8.3% since 2013.

Observations

• Supermarkets – $406B in Sales; 15 Companies; 15,000 stores; All Selling Pet Products. This is a very important group for the Pet Industry. With the highest frequency of consumer visits of any channel, the competition is fierce. The mergers and acquisitions have slowed. All companies but Southeastern showed increased sales. However, the strongest growth came from Sprouts (Natural) and Aldi (Value).
  • Southeastern Grocers filed for bankruptcy in 2018. Store closures and reduced sales continue.
• Small Format Value Stores: Remember, this retail channel does more business than Traditional Department Stores.
  • As expected, Dollar General increased its lead over Dollar Tree in Sales, Sales Increase and Store Count.
  • Dollar Tree continues to increase sales, but its store count growth rate has slowed.
  • Big Lots had small growth in sales and stores after trending down in both areas in 2018.
  • This retail channel continues to grow in popularity. They are committed to Pet Products and their focus on value appeals to today’s ever more price conscious consumers. Plus, they are easy to shop.
• Pet Stores – After the acquisition of Chewy in 2017, PetSmart’s sales registered a huge increase. In 2018, their sales were up +4.7%. In 2019, driven by the increasing popularity of the internet and Chewy, sales grew an impressive +14%. Petco qualified for the Top 100 for the first time in 2016. This was widely viewed as evidence of the strength of the U.S. Pet Industry. They hung on in 2017 but dropped out in 2018. It looks like they need a new formula, perhaps the internet, to make it back into the club.
• Office Supply Stores – This channel continues its decline as Consumers are increasingly moving to online ordering.
• Sporting Goods – Bass Pro (includes Cabela’s) continues to struggle but the other 3 companies eked out a small sales increase (2>3%) in 2019. Sales are up overall for the category but all companies, but Academy Sports are closing some underperforming stores.

Restaurants & Gas Stations and the Grand Total

Restaurant & Gas Station Observations

Although restaurants & gas stations aren’t relevant in terms of Pet Products Sales, they are relevant in our daily lives.

• In 2019 although 4 companies had decreases, the overall sales for Restaurants in the Top 100 was up 4.0%%. This was better than the 3.6% increase in 2018 but less than the 4.6% increase in the total restaurant channel. McDonalds led the way in $, +$1.89B, but Chick-fil-A and Chipotle tied for the biggest percentage increase, +14.5%.
• Falling gas prices in 2019 flattened the revenue growth of the total Gas Station Channel. The Top 100 Gas Station sales and stores are both up solely because Speedway acquired Andeavor Brands with their 3200+ outlets.

Wrapping it up!

The Top 100 became the Top 100 by producing big sales numbers and their performance, except for 2018, usually exceeds the overall market. In 2019 things returned to “normal”, +4.5% for the Top 100 vs +3.6% for Total Retail. The Top 100 Gas Stations, with a major acquisition, far exceeded the full market performance. However, top 100 restaurants underperformed to the overall Restaurant channel. If you just compare the “regular” retailers – both brick ‘n mortar and internet, then the Top 100 “won” big, +4.9% to +3.6% for the total “relevant” retail market.

Pet Products are an important part of the success of the Top 100. Sixty-nine companies on the list sell Pet Food and/or Supplies in 145,600 stores and/or online. Let’s take a closer look at the fifty-eight companies that stock pet products in their stores. This group generated $1.99T in total sales. How much was from pet? Let’s “Do the math”. If we take out the $11.9B done by PetSmart and the remaining companies generated only 1.5% of their sales from Pet, we’re looking at $29.7B in Pet Products sales from only 57 “non-pet” sources! (Note: The 1.5% share for Pet items is a low end estimate based on data from the U.S. Economic Census.) After a major adjustment, the APPA reported $56B in Pet Products sales for 2019. That means that 57 mass market retailers accounted for 53+% of all the Pet Products sold in the U.S. in 2019.

Pet Products are widespread in the retail marketplace but the $ are concentrated. Regardless of your position in the Pet Industry, monitoring the Top 100 group is important. This group also reflects the ongoing evolution in the retail market – the growing influence of the internet and the importance of Value. The group was relatively stable in 2019, with no changes from 2018. Competition is still intense, and the current COVID-19 crisis will likely cause turmoil in 2020.

Time for our monthly update on U.S. retail sales by channel. The current COVID-19 crisis has caused turmoil in the Retail Marketplace. Consumer spending behavior has changed and continues to evolve. In this report we will track the changes and migration between channels. We will do that with data from two reports provided by the U.S. Census Bureau.

The Reports are the Monthly Retail Sales Report and the Advance Retail Sales Report. Both are derived from sales data gathered from retailers across the U.S. and are published monthly at the same time. The Advance Report has a smaller sample size so it can be published quickly – approximately 2 weeks after month end. The Monthly Final Report includes data from all respondents, so it takes longer to compile the data – about 6 weeks. Although the sample size for the Advance report is smaller, the results over the years have proven it to be statistically accurate with the final monthly reports. The biggest difference is that the full sample in the Final report allows us to “drill” a little deeper into the retail channels.

This means to get the full picture in our monthly channel update we need to look at the latest release of both reports. We will begin with the Final Retail Report from April and then move to the Advance Retail Report for May. This will also allow us to better track the consumers’ evolving spending behavior in terms of channel migration.

Both reports include the following:

• Total Retail, Restaurants, Auto, Gas Stations and Relevant Retail (removing Restaurants, Auto and Gas)
• Individual Channel Data – This will be more detailed in the “Final” reports and we fill focus on Pet Relevant Channels

The information will be presented in detailed charts to facilitate visual comparison between groups/channels of:

• Current Month change – % & $ vs previous month
• Current Month change – % & $ vs same month in 2019
• Current YTD change – % & $ vs 2019
• Monthly and Year To Date $ will also be shown for each group/channel

We’ll start with the April Final report. This was the depth of the crisis (hopefully). The impact is very visible. First, we will look at some major retail groups. (Note: The Data in all graphs is Actual, Not Seasonally Adjusted)

It is slightly better ($8B) than the Advance report projected a month ago. Although Restaurant $ales were $2B less than expected, the “Relevant Retail” segment was $10B better. Gas Stations also were $1B more than the early numbers but The Auto Segment was “spot on”. However, It was still by far the worst year over year monthly performance in history.

In a “normal” April we are generally into the Spring Lift as consumers begin to turn to outside activities. However, the widespread closures and “stay at home” guidelines generally ended that behavior.

Now, let’s see how some Key Pet Relevant channels were doing in April.

• Overall – Any binge spending ended in April as only Internet and Hardware/Farm had a March to April increase.
• Building Material Stores – This group typically has their biggest annual lift in Spring. It appears that this is unchanged. Farm Stores did especially well with spectacular increases in all measurements. Although Sporting Goods stores are not included in this group, they have a similar Spring lift pattern. However, the results are totally different. You truly see the impact of the sports/recreation “shut down”.
• Food & Drug – Although the March binge buying is over, Supermarket sales continue with strong growth. Drug Stores also had a March sales rush on essentials, but that clearly ended in April as sales are below April of 2019.
• General Merchandise Stores – Although the March binge buying is over, sales in $ Stores, Clubs/SuperCtrs are both up, with $ Stores showing the most growth. Most traditional Department stores were closed and shopping in many Discount Department stores was often limited to essentials. The result is that sales were down -44.5% vs April 2019.
• Office, Gift and Souvenir Stores – Most of these stores are deemed non-essential. You see the result.
• Internet/Mail Order – “Stay at home” has further accelerated this channel’s growth. This will likely continue as the crisis has introduced many new consumers to online shopping.
• A/O Miscellaneous – This is a group of small to midsized specialty retailers – chains and independents. It includes Florists, Art Stores and Pet Stores. Pet Stores generally account for 22 to 24% of this group’s total sales. Although Pet Stores were generally deemed essential most stores were not. The group was up 21% YTD in February which is the only reason that they are still “hanging on” to a YTD increase.

April was certainly a terrible month for retail spending, the biggest Total Retail $ drop in history. The March binge/panic buying ended in April and we saw the huge negative impact of a full month of non-essential business closures. In May, a very slow reopening of the economy began. Let’s see how it is progressing. Here are the Advance numbers for May.

April was the biggest spending drop in history. May was $95B better but still $42B (-7.7%) below May of 2019. That  gives us an idea of how serious the current situation is and how long the recovery may take.

Total Retail – Total Retail spending fell $42B, -7.7% vs 2019, edging out March for the 2^nd biggest drop in history. Remember, 2020 started off strong. Spending through February was up $60B, +6.6% versus 2019. Then came the COVID-19 crisis and now it is down -$116B – a $176B turnaround in just 3 months.

Restaurants – Spending increased $11B over April but was still down $26B vs 2019. The year started out good, up $9B (+8.1%) through February. Then social distancing began, and many restaurants closed. Delivery and curbside pickup couldn’t make up the difference as spending fell $78B in 3 months so this group is now down $69B YTD.

Automobile & Gas Stations – If you can’t go out, except for necessities, then your car becomes less of a focus in your life. Buying a car was definitely less of a priority. Auto Dealers, both new and used, tried to combat this with some fantastic deals and a lot of advertising. It appears to be helping but sales were still down $7B versus 2019. In terms of Gas Stations, May is traditionally the beginning of the vacation travel season but not in 2020. Prices are still down but people are still not driving as much as they used to, whether for commuting or road trips.

Relevant Retail – Less Auto, Gas and Restaurants – Many non-essential businesses began to shutter their doors in March but there was also a rash of binge/panic buying for “necessities” and a big lift in groceries as consumers focused on home cooking which drove spending up $19B. Then came April. With a full month of closures and an end in binge buying, spending dropped $34B, -10.7% from March and 16B, -5.2% vs April 2019. In May, the overall market began a slow reopening so spending began to move in the right direction. Nonstore and Grocery, along with SuperCenters/Clubs & $ Stores continued their growth. The spring lift in the Hardware/Farm channel got even stronger and the group which includes Sporting Goods, Hobby & Book Stores bounced back to beat their May 2019 numbers. The Relevant Retail group now has positive numbers in all measurements – vs last month, last year and year to date.

Now let’s look at what is happening in the individual retail channels across America. In May, consumer spending in the relevant retail market returned to positive numbers. Let’s see where the $ came from. These groups are less defined than in the Final Monthly reports and we will look across the whole market, not just pet relevant outlets.

Every group had a May sales increase over April, but performance was mixed when it came to vs 2019 and YTD. 

Observations

April was a full month of stay at home, widespread closures and reduced discretionary spending so it was an easy number to beat. However, only 7 of 13 groups had positive numbers for May 2020 vs 2019:

• Nonstore Retailers – Even more consumers are online shopping.
• Food & Beverage, especially Grocery– Restaurant $ are still down so consumers continue to eat & drink at home.
• Sporting Gds/Hobby/Books – Stores reopened and consumers started to return to outside recreational activities.
• Bldg Materials/Garden/Farm – A big Spring lift as consumers focus “on their home” even more than usual.
• SuperCtrs/Club/Value/$ Strs – Sales slowed in April, but they came back strong in May and it was enough to turn the whole Gen Mdse channel positive. This group of stores offers great value which is still a consumer priority.

Regarding the Individual Large Channels

General Merchandise Stores – Some Regular Department stores began reopening and Discount Department stores held their ground, so this cut the losses for Department Stores. Club/SuperCtr/$ stores provided the big positive force. In April consumers dialed back their panic buying and spending on discretionary items was also down significantly. In May we saw consumer spending return to a more normal pattern in the big and small stores that promise value shopping.

Food and Beverage, plus Health & Personal Care Stores – The Grocery segment is still being driven by increased Food sales due to restaurant closures, up 14.3%, +$8B. Sales in the Health, Personal Care group are up minimally from April but remain down overall. Many Personal Care stores are slow to reopen and Drug Stores sales are essentially flat.

Clothing and Accessories; Electronic & Appliances; Home Furnishings – As stores reopen there was a spectacular increase in sales over April. However, May $ were still down big time from 2019. They all had the same pattern, with Clothing Stores being the most extreme. Their sales were up 209% from April but still down 63% vs 2019 and 43% YTD. These channels have a long way to go to recover.

Building Material, Farm & Garden & Hardware – This channel has its biggest spending lift in the Spring. The shelter in place rules caused many consumers to turn their focus to their needs at home, including house and yard repair and improvement. This has further accelerated the usual Spring lift. Sales are up across the board, including +6.7% YTD.

Sporting Goods, Hobby and Book Stores – Book and Hobby stores which had been closed started to reopen. Sporting Goods stores had generally been open but organized sports were on hold, parks closed, and non-essential travel was discouraged. In May things began to open up and consumers once again sought outdoor recreation. Sales literally doubled from April. The May Sales even beat 2019 by 6%. However, YTD they were still down 10%.

All Miscellaneous Stores – This group is mostly small to medium specialty stores – both chains and independents. While Pet Stores are essential, most other stores in this group are not. The closures hit this group particularly hard. May sales were up 27.3% from April as the reopening began but they are still down 24.3% vs May of 2019. In February they were up $2.6B, +14.3% YTD. In 3 months, this changed to down -$4.3B, -8.3%. That’s quite a negative turnaround.

NonStore Retailers – 90% of the volume of this group comes from Internet/Mail Order/TV businesses. The COVID-19 crisis has only accelerated the ongoing movement to online retail. Compared to 2019, NonStore was up 16.3% in March, 22.5% in April and 25.3% in May. Since April they have been the leader in all sales measurements regardless if it is in $ or % increase. Also, their YTD sales are up 16.6%, exceeding their 12.9% annual increase in 2019. This early year lift bodes well for 2020 as much of their annual increase is usually driven by Christmas Holiday spending, which is still to come.

Note: Almost without exception, online sales by brick ‘n mortar retailers are recorded along with their store sales in their regular channel. Whether they are up or down, their online sales are included in the totals.

Recap – Hopefully, April was the “bottom” in the COVID-19  impact on the American way of life and consumer spending. Although the situation began to improve slightly in May, it still beat out March to register the 2^nd biggest year over year monthly retail sales decline in history. Restaurants, Auto and Gas Stations all had big sales increases over April, but they are still struggling. The Relevant Retail segment provided the only true positive as sales were up in all measurements. However, for many segments in this group there is still a long way to go. As the situation evolves, spending will no doubt move back to a more routine pattern – a new normal. No one knows how long that this will take and what long term impact the COVID-19 crisis will have on U.S. consumers’ spending behavior. We will continue to monitor the data and provide you with regular updates as the situation evolves.