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Retail Channel $ Update – September Monthly & October Advance

November 25, 2024/in Pet Market Distribution Channels/by John Gibbons

In October, YOY Commodities’ deflation decreased to -1.0% from -1.3%. Although deflating, high cumulative inflation vs 21 can still impact consumer spending and slow actual $ growth. However, in October, Total Retail sales, as expected (90% of years since 92) were +4.6% vs 23, equal to the average lift. Relevant Retail was +5.5%, 21% above average. That looks good but there is still a long road to full recovery, so we’ll continue to track the retail market with data from 2 reports provided by the Census Bureau and factor in a targeted CPI.

The Census Bureau Reports are the Monthly and the Advance Retail Sales Reports. Both are derived from sales data gathered from retailers across the U.S. and are published monthly at the same time. The Advance Report has a smaller sample size so it can be published quickly – about 2 weeks after month end. The Monthly Report includes data from all respondents, so it takes longer to compile the data – about 6 weeks. Although the sample size for the Advance report is smaller, the results over the years have proven it to be statistically accurate with the Monthly reports. The biggest difference is that the full sample in the Monthly report allows us to “drill” a little deeper into the retail channels.

We will begin with the September Monthly Report and then go to the October Advance Report. Our focus is comparing to last year but also 21 & 19. We’ll show both actual and the “real” change in sales as we factor inflation into the data.

Both reports include the following:

Total Retail, Restaurants, Auto, Gas Stations and Relevant Retail (removing Restaurants, Auto and Gas)
Individual Channel Data – This is more detailed in the Monthly reports, and we’ll focus on Pet Relevant Channels.

The data will be presented in detailed charts to facilitate visual comparison between groups/channels. The charts will show 11 separate measurements. To save space they will be displayed in a stacked bar format for the channel charts.

Current Month change – % & $ vs previous month
Current Month change – % & $ vs same month last year and vs 2021.
- Current Month Real change vs last year and vs 2021 – % factoring in inflation
Current Ytd change – % & $ for this year vs last year, 2021 & 2019.
- Current Ytd Real change % for this year vs last year and vs 2021 and 2019
Monthly & Ytd $ & CPIs for this year vs last year and vs 2021 which are targeted by channel will also be shown. (CPI Details are at the end of the report)

First, the September Monthly. All were down from August but there were only 3 actual sales drops vs 23 & 21. We should note that Gas Stations are still selling less product than in 2019. Also, Relevant Retail is all positive again. They have been all positive in 8 of the last 11 months and now in 4 of the last 5. ($ are Not Seasonally Adjusted)

The September Monthly is $1.7B more than the Advance report. Restaurants: +$0.2B; Auto: +$0.2B; Gas Stations: +$0.3B; Relevant Retail: +$1.1B. As expected, $ales were down vs August for all. An Aug>Sep decrease in Total Retail has happened every year since 1992. However, the -6.9% drop was 11% more than the -6.2% avg. There were only 3 drops in actual sales – Monthly & Ytd vs 23 for Gas Stations and Auto Monthly vs 23. There were 6 “real” sales drops, up from 3 last month. Total & Relevant Retail were all positive. Restaurants still have the biggest increases vs 21 & 19 but Relevant Retail stayed at the top of “real” performance vs 2019. However, only 51% of their growth is real.

Now, let’s see how some Key Pet Relevant channels did in September in the Stacked Bar Graph Format

Overall– 10 of 11 were down from August. vs Sep 23, 7 were actually and “really” up. Vs Sep 21, 8 were up but only 5 were real increases. Vs 2019, Off/Gift/Souv were actually & really down and Disc Dept Strs were also really down.

Building Material Stores – The pandemic focus on home has produced sales growth of 31.2% since 2019. Prices for the Bldg/Matl group have inflated 14.2% since 2021 which is having an impact. HomeCtr/Hdwe are only actually down Ytd vs 23, but Farm stores are only actually up vs Sep 21 & Ytd vs 19. Only the “real” measurements vs 21 are negative for Home/Hdwe. For Farm Stores all “real” numbers but vs 19 are negative. Plus, only 25% of the Building Materials group’s 19>24 lift was real. Avg 19>24 Growth: HomeCtr/Hdwe: 5.4%, Real: 1.3%; Farm: 6.4%, Real: 2.3%
Food & Drug – Both are truly essential. Except for the pandemic food binge buying, they tend to have smaller changes in $. In terms of inflation, the Grocery rate is 81% of the rate for Drug/Med products. Drug Stores are positive in all measurements and 64% of their 2019>24 growth is real. Supermarkets’ actual $ are up in all measurements and they are only “really” down vs 2021. However, only 5% of their 19>24 increase is real growth. Avg 19>24 Growth: Supermarkets: +5.2%, Real: +0.3%; Drug Stores: +5.1%, Real: +3.4%.
Sporting Goods Stores – They also benefited from the pandemic in that consumers turned to self-entertainment, especially sports & outdoor activities. Sales are down -17.7% from August and their only positives are actual & real Ytd vs 19. Prices are still deflating, -2.3% vs 23. Deflation started in April 23 and is a big change from +1.1% in 22>23 and +7.9% in 21>22. The result is that 58% of their 34.6% lift since 19 is real. Avg 19>24 Growth Rate is: +6.1%; Real: +3.7%.
Gen Mdse Stores – All actual & real sales were up for Club/SupCtrs & $ stores. On the other hand, Discount Dept Stores were only actually up Ytd vs 21 & 19. All real measurements are negative so none of their growth since 2019 is real. The other channels average 45% in real growth. Avg 19>24 Growth: SupCtr/Club: 6.1%, Real: 2.9%; $/Value Strs: +6.4%, Real: +3.1%; Disc. Dept. Strs: +1.6%, Real: -0.4%.
Office, Gift & Souvenir Stores – Sales were down -10.8% from August. This set the stage for a bad month. They are now only actually up Ytd vs 21 and all of their real sales numbers are negative. Their recovery started late, and their progress has stalled again after a minor restart in August. Avg Growth Rate: -0.01%, Real: -2.0%
Internet/Mail Order – Sales are -2.5% from August but set a new monthly record of $106.5B. All measurements are positive, but their Ytd growth, +9.6%, is still only 60% of their average since 2019. However, 81.9% of their 111.0% growth since 2019 is real. Avg Growth: +16.1%, Real: +13.8%. As expected, they are by far the growth leader since 2019.
A/O Miscellaneous – Pet Stores are 22>24% of total $. In May 2020 they began their recovery which reached a record level of $100B for the first time in 2021. In 2022 their sales dipped in January, July, Sept>Nov, rose in December, fell in Jan>Feb 23, grew Mar>May, fell in Jun>Aug, rose in Sep>Nov, fell in Dec>Jan 24, grew in Feb>May, then fell in Jun>Sep. However, all measurements are positive. They are still in 2^nd place, behind the Internet, in the % increase vs 19 and vs 21. Also, 73% of their 55.1% growth since 2019 is real. Average 19>24 Growth: +9.2%, Real: +7.0%.

September had its usual drop as 10 small channels were down vs August. The Total Retail YOY lift was -95% below Avg but 7 of 11 smaller channels and 2 of 4 big groups were up vs Sep 23. Prices are deflating in 7 channels, but cumulative inflation still matters. Many sales lifts are lower as 6 of 11 channels were really down vs Sep 21. The Retail Recovery has slowed again. The commodities CPI is still deflating but rose to -1.0% in October. Let’s see if it impacts Retail $ales.

Sep>Oct sales were up for all. An Sep>Oct Total Retail lift has happened in 90% of the years since 1992 and the 4.6% lift is equal to the average. All but 2 actual YOY $ measurements are positive. The drops are from Gas Stations – Monthly & Ytd vs 23. The Total Retail lift of 4.6% vs 23 was the 2^nd biggest increase in 24 (+6.3% in Feb). The Relevant Retail lift vs Oct 23 (+5.5%) was 21% above their 92>23 average. The Auto lift was 45% above average, but Restaurants were -19% below their average. Inflation may be becoming less of a factor. The CPI for all commodities rose to -1.0% but it is down to 7.9% from 9.7% vs 21. There is more “real” good news. In September, 5 measurements were “really” down vs 23 & 21. In October, only 2 were really down. Restaurants, Total & Relevant Retail were all positive. After 2 months with a negative, Relevant Retail has been all positive in 5 of the last 6 months.

Overall – Inflation Reality – For Total Retail, deflation slowed to -1.0% but YOY sales grew 4.6% vs 23. For Restaurants, inflation remains high, +3.7% but they are again up in all comparisons. Gas prices fell but that group is still in turmoil. Auto prices rose but are still deflating. Their sales grew vs Oct 23 and are really down in only 1 measurement. Inflation fell from 0.1% to -0.2% for Relevant Retail and sales are all positive. Their progress continues and may be growing.

Total Retail – Since June 20, every month but April 23 & June 24 has set a monthly sales record. In 2023>24, Sales were on a roller coaster. Up Jul>Aug, down Sept, up Oct>Dec, down Jan 24, up Feb>Mar, down April, up May, down June, up Jul>Aug, down in Sep, up in Oct. Prices are now -1.0%, and YOY sales are up as expected. Ytd Sales are up 2.8% vs 23, only 41% of their avg 19>24 growth. Plus, only 39% of the 19>24 growth is real. YOY pricing in Total Retail is still deflating but we see its cumulative impact in Ytd sales. Growth: 23>24: 2.8%; Avg 19>24: +6.8%, Real: +2.8%.

Restaurants – They were hit hard by the pandemic and didn’t begin recovery until March 2021. However, they have had strong growth since then, exceeding $1T for the 1^st time in 2023 and set another monthly sales record in October. They have the biggest Ytd increases vs 23, 21 & 19 and are again all “positive”. Inflation slowed to 3.7% in October but is still +18.6% vs 21 and +27.1% vs 19. Only 35.2% of their 48.9% growth since 19 is real and they remain 3^rd in performance behind Relevant & Total Retail. Recovery started late but inflation started early. Growth: 5.0%; Avg 19>24:+8.3%, Real: +3.3%. They just account for 13.6% of Total Retail $, but their performance has helped Total Retail.

Auto (Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers) – They actively worked to overcome the stay-at-home attitude with great deals and a lot of advertising. They finished 2020 up 1% vs 2019 and hit a record $1.48T in 2021 but much of it was due to skyrocketing inflation. In 22, sales got on a rollercoaster. Inflation started to drop mid-year, but it caused 4 down months in actual sales which are the only reported sales negatives by any big group in 21>22. This is bad but their Y/E real 2022 sales numbers were worse, down -8.2% vs 21 and -8.9% vs 19. 2023 started a true sales rollercoaster but the $ set a new record, $1.595T. $ fell in Jan 24, grew Feb>Mar, fell Apr, grew May, fell June, grew Jul>Aug, fell Sep, grew in Oct. All but Real Ytd $ vs 21 are positive, but only 17.7% of 19>24 growth is real. Growth: 1.5%; Avg 19>24: +5.5%, Real: +1.1%

Gas Stations – Gas Stations were hit hard by “stay at home”. They started recovery in March 2021 and inflation began. Sales got on a rollercoaster in 2022 but reached a record $583B3. Inflation started to slow in August and prices slightly deflated in Dec & Feb 23, then strongly fell in Mar>Jul to -20.2%. In August they rose to -3.7%. In Sep they were +2.7% but began deflating to -4.2% in Feb 24. In Mar>May they grew, fell in June, rose in July, then fell in Aug>Oct. Actual $ are down monthly & Ytd vs 23. Real sales are down Ytd vs 21 and 19. Growth: -2.8%; Avg 19>24: +4.4%, Real: -0.8%.They show the cumulative impact of inflation and demonstrate how deflation can be both a positive and a negative.

Relevant Retail – Less Auto, Gas and Restaurants – They account for ≈60% of Total Retail $ in a variety of channels, so they took many different paths through the pandemic. However, their only down month was April 2020, and they led the way in Total Retail’s recovery. Sales got on a roller coaster in 2022, but all months set new records with December reaching a new all-time high, $481B, and an annual record of $4.81T. In 2023, the roller coaster continued. A December lift set a new monthly record of $494.7B & an annual record of $4.997T. Sales fell in Jan>Feb 24, rose in Mar, fell in Apr, rose in May, fell in June, rose in Jul>Aug, fell in Sep, then rose in Oct. The Oct. YOY lift of 5.5% is 21% above their 92>23 avg and all measurements are still positive. Also, 51% of their 41.4% 19>24 growth is real – #1 in performance. Growth: 3.5%; Avg 19>24: +7.2%, Real: +3.9%. This is where America shops. They ended 23 and began 24 strong. In Mar>Apr recovery slowed. It got better in May, worsened in June, rebounded in July, stabilized in Aug, slowed in Sep, grew in Oct.

Inflation is still low, but the cumulative impact is still there. YOY Sales changes vs 23 are improving but overall, progress is still slow. Some changes from September are significant. The Actual drops decreased from 4 to 2 and real drops fell from 5 to 2. Restaurants are back on track and Auto is improving but Gas Stations remain in turmoil. Relevant Retail’s YOY Sales increase was 21% above avg and all measurements are positive for the 5th time in the last 6 months. Total Retail’s lift was also strong and they are all positive too. After a bad September, the recovery is strongly restarting.

Here’s a more detailed look at October by Key Channels in the Stacked Bar Graph Format

Relevant Retail: Growth: +3.5%; Avg: +7.2%, Real: +3.9%. All were up from Sep. Vs Oct 23: 9 were up, Real: 11, Vs Oct 21: 7 were up, Real: 6. Vs 19: Only Dept Stores were actually & really down. Furnishing stores were also really down.
All Department Stores – This group was struggling before the pandemic hit them hard. They began recovery in March 2020. Sales are up 5.8% from September but except for vs Oct 23, their actual and real numbers are all negative. They are even actually & really down vs 2019. Growth: -1.2%; Avg 19>24: -0.1%, Real: -2.1%.
Club/SuprCtr/$- They fueled a big part of the recovery because they focus on value which has broad consumer appeal. $ales are +7.1% from Sep, and they are positive in all measurements. However, only 44.8% of their 34.6% 19>24 lift is real – inflation’s impact. Ytd growth is below Avg for the 7th straight month. Growth: 3.6%; Avg: +6.1%, Real: +2.9%.
Grocery- These stores depend on frequent purchases, so except for the binge buying in 2020, their changes are usually less radical. Actual $ are +4.0% from Sep and positive in all comparisons. However, cumulative inflation has hit them hard. Real $ are only up vs 23 & 19 and only 6% of 19>24 growth is real. Growth: 2.0%; Avg 19>24: +5.2%, Real: +0.3 %.
Health/Drug Stores – Many stores are essential, but consumers visit less frequently than Grocery stores. $ are +5.6% from Sep and they are positive in all actual and real comparisons. Because inflation has been relatively low, 64% of their 28.4% growth from 2019 is real. Growth: 2.9%; Avg 19>24: +5.1%, Real: +3.4%
Clothing and Accessories – Clothes initially mattered less when you stayed home. That changed in March 2021 with strong growth through 2022. Sales are up 7.9% from Sep and actual sales are up in all comparisons. Real sales are down monthly & Ytd vs 21, but 62% of their 19>24 growth is real. Growth: 2.4%; Avg 19>24: +3.2%, Real:+2.1%
Home Furnishings – In mid-2020 consumers’ focus turned to their homes and furniture became a priority. Prices are still deflating but they were high in 2022. Sales are +0.5% from Sep, but negative in all measurements but vs Oct 23 & actual vs 2019. They have sold less product in 2024 than in 2019. Growth: -3.9%;Avg 19>24: +2.3%, Real: -0.2%
Electronic & Appliances – This channel has had many issues. Sales fell in Apr>May of 2020 and didn’t reach 2019 levels until March 21. $ are +5.0% from Sep, but they are only actually positive Ytd vs 23 & 19. Due to strong deflation, real sales are positive and exceed actual for all comparisons. Growth: +0.2%; Avg 19>24: +0.7%, Real: +3.7%.
Building Material, Farm & Garden & Hardware –They truly benefited from the consumers’ focus on home. In 2022 the lift slowed as inflation grew to double digits. Prices are still deflating, and sales are +11.3% from Sep. Actual sales are only down Ytd vs 23. Prices are deflating vs 23 but are still +16.7% Ytd vs 21. Real sales are positive in all comparisons but Ytd vs 21. However, just 26% of their 19>24 sales growth is real. Growth: -1.0%; Avg 19>24: +5.7%, Real: +1.6%.
Sporting Goods, Hobby and Book Stores – Consumers turned their attention to recreation and Sporting Goods stores sales took off. Book & Hobby Stores recovered more slowly. They have been on a monthly sales rollercoaster since June. $ are only +0.5% from Sep. All comparisons but real vs Oct 23 & Ytd vs 2019 are negative. Their inflation rate has been lower than most groups so 72% of their 24.4% growth since 2019 is real. Growth: -3.5%; Avg 19>24: +4.5%, Real: +3.3%.
All Miscellaneous Stores – Pet Stores have been a key part of the strong and growing recovery of this group. They finished 2020 at +0.9% but sales took off in March 21 and have continued to grow. Sales are +6.8% vs Sep and positive in all measurements vs 23, 21 & 19. They are 2^nd in the % increase vs 19 and now tied for 3rd vs 21. 67.2% of their 40.5% 19>24 growth is real, but their current Ytd lift is still 11% below Avg. Growth: +6.1%; Avg 19>24: +7.0%, Real: 4.9%.
NonStore Retailers – 90% of their $ comes from Internet/Mail Order/TV. The pandemic accelerated online spending. They ended 2020 +21.4%. The growth continued in 2021 as sales exceeded $100B for the 1^st time and they broke the $1 Trillion barrier. $ are +11.3% from Sep. Their YOY lift grew to +10.6%, but Ytd they are still 45% below Avg. They are positive in all measurements and 81% of their 98.7% 19>24 growth is real. Growth: 8.1%; Avg: +14.7%, Real: +12.4%.

Note: Almost without exception, online sales by brick ‘n mortar retailers are recorded with their regular store sales.

Recap – The Retail recovery from the pandemic was largely driven by Relevant Retail and by the end of 2021 it had become very widespread. In 2022, there was a new challenge, the worst inflation in 40 years. Overall, inflation has slowed considerably from its June 22 peak and now 8 channels are deflating. This should help the Retail Situation. As expected, $ grew for all from Sep, but the 7.6% lift for Relevant Retail was 65% more than their 92>23 avg. This was a big turnaround. Also in September, their 2.7% lift vs 23 was -41% below average, 4 of 11 channels had a YOY $ drop and only 5 of 11 sold more product. In October, their 5.5% YOY lift was 21% above avg, 9 of 11 had a YOY $ lift and all 11 sold more product. Also, in September, there were 2 channels with 6.5+% lifts. In October, it grew to 4. Things are definitely better and there is more good news. Restaurants, Total & Relevant Retail are again positive in all comparisons. Relevant Retail has now been all positive in 5 of 6 months. The recovery has strongly restarted. However, when you look at the Ytd numbers, you realize that we need many more “Octobers” to fully recover.

Finally, here are the details and updated inflation rates for the CPIs used to calculate the impact of inflation on retail groups and channels. This includes special aggregate CPIs created with the instruction and guidance of personnel from the US BLS. I also researched data from the last Economic Census to review the share of sales by product category for the various channels to help in selecting what expenditures to include in specific aggregates. Of course, none of these specially created aggregates are 100% accurate but they are much closer than the overall CPI or available aggregates. The data also includes the CPI changes since 2021 to show cumulative inflation.

Monthly YOY CPI changes of 0.2% or more are highlighted. (Green = lower; Pink = higher)

I’m sure that this list raises some questions. Here are some answers to some of the more obvious ones.

Why is the group for Non-store different from the Internet?
- Non-store is not all internet. It also includes Fuel Oil Dealers, the non-motor fuel Energy Commodity.
Why is there no Food at home included in Non-store or Internet?
- Online Grocery purchasing is becoming popular but almost all is from companies whose major business is brick ‘n mortar. These online sales are recorded under their primary channel.
6 Channels have the same CPI aggregate but represent a variety of business types.
- They also have a wide range of product types. Rather than try to build aggregates of a multitude of small expenditure categories, it seemed better to eliminate the biggest, influential groups that they don’t sell. This method is not perfect, but it is certainly closer than any existing aggregate.
Why are Grocery and Supermarkets only tied to the Grocery CPI?
- According to the Economic Census, 76% of their sales comes from Grocery products. Grocery Products are the driver. The balance of their sales comes from a collection of a multitude of categories.
What about Drug/Health Stores only being tied to Medical Commodities.
- An answer similar to the one for Grocery/Supermarkets. However, in this case Medical Commodities account for over 80% of these stores’ total sales.
Why do SuperCtrs/Clubs and $ Stores have the same CPI?
- While the Big Stores sell much more fresh groceries, Groceries account for ¼ of $ Store sales. Both Channels generally offer most of the same product categories, but the actual product mix is different.

Retail Channel $ Update – August Monthly & September Advance

October 22, 2024/in Pet Market Distribution Channels/by John Gibbons

In September, YOY Commodities’ deflation increased to -1.3% from -1.2%. Although still deflating, the high prices from cumulative inflation still impact consumer spending. In September, Total Retail sales were -0.03% vs 23, the 1^st September drop since 2009. Relevant Retail was +2.5%, but that was 47% below the average increase. Prices are now deflating in many channels but still high vs 21, which can slow actual $ growth and the amount of product sold. There is still a long road to recovery, so we’ll continue to track the retail market with data from 2 reports provided by the Census Bureau and factor in a targeted CPI.

We will begin with the August Monthly Report and then go to the September Advance Report. Our focus is comparing to last year but also 2021 & 2019. We’ll show both actual and the “real” change in sales as we factor inflation into the data.

Both reports include the following:

Total Retail, Restaurants, Auto, Gas Stations and Relevant Retail (removing Restaurants, Auto and Gas)
Individual Channel Data – This is more detailed in the Monthly reports, and we’ll focus on Pet Relevant Channels.

Current Month change – % & $ vs previous month
Current Month change – % & $ vs same month last year and vs 2021.
- Current Month Real change vs last year and vs 2021 – % factoring in inflation
Current Ytd change – % & $ for this year vs last year, 2021 & 2019.
- Current Ytd Real change % for this year vs last year and vs 2021 and 2019
Monthly & Ytd $ & CPIs for this year vs last year and vs 2021 which are targeted by channel will also be shown. (CPI Details are at the end of the report)

First, the August Monthly. Only Gas Stations were down from July and there were only 2 actual sales drops vs 23 & 21. We should note that Gas Stations are still selling less product than in 2019. Also, Relevant Retail is all positive again. They have been all positive in 7 of the last 10 months and now in 3 of the last 6. ($ are Not Seasonally Adjusted)

The August Monthly is $0.1B more than the Advance report. Restaurants: +$1.0B; Auto: -$0.8B; Gas Stations: +$0.2B; Relevant Retail: -$0.3B. As expected, $ales were up vs July for all but Gas Stations. A Jul>Aug increase in Total Retail happens about 80% of the time. However, the 1.5% lift was 33% below the 2.1% avg. There were only 2 drops in actual sales – Monthly & Ytd vs 23 for Gas Stations. There were 3 “real” sales drops, down from 5 last month. Total & Relevant Retail and Restaurants were all positive. Restaurants still have the biggest increases vs 21 & 19 but Relevant Retail stayed at the top of “real” performance vs 2019. However, only 51% of their growth is real.

Now, let’s see how some Key Pet Relevant channels did in August in the Stacked Bar Graph Format

Overall– 7 of 11 were up from July. vs Aug 23, 7 were actually and 8 “really” up. Vs Aug 21, 9 were up but only 5 were real increases. Vs 2019, Off/Gift/Souv were actually & really down and Disc Dept Strs were also really down.

Building Material Stores – The pandemic focus on home has produced sales growth of 30.8% since 2019. Prices for the Bldg/Matl group have inflated 15.8% since 2021 which is having an impact. HomeCtr/Hdwe are only actually up vs Aug 21 and Ytd vs 21 & 19, but Farm stores are only actually up vs Aug 21 & Ytd vs 19. Only the “real” measurements vs 21 are negative for Home/Hdwe. For Farm Stores all “real” numbers but vs 19 are negative. Plus, only 23% of the Building Materials group’s 19>24 lift was real. Avg 19>24 Growth: HomeCtr/Hdwe: 5.3%, Real: 1.2%; Farm: 6.4%, Real: 2.2%
Food & Drug – Both are truly essential. Except for the pandemic food binge buying, they tend to have smaller changes in $. In terms of inflation, the Grocery rate is only 45% of the rate for Drug/Med products. Drug Stores are positive in all measurements and 63% of their 2019>24 growth is real. Supermarkets’ actual $ are up in all measurements and they are only “really” down vs 2021. However, only 5% of their 19>24 increase is real growth. Avg 19>24 Growth: Supermarkets: +5.1%, Real: +0.3%; Drug Stores: +4.9%, Real: +3.2%.
Sporting Goods Stores – They also benefited from the pandemic in that consumers turned to self-entertainment, especially sports & outdoor activities. Sales are up from July but their only positives are actual & real Ytd vs 19. Prices are still deflating, -1.9% vs 23. Deflation started in April 23 and is a big change from +1.1% in 22>23 and +7.9% in 21>22. The result is that 57% of their 34.3% lift since 19 is real. Avg 19>24 Growth Rate is: +6.1%; Real: +3.6%.
Gen Mdse Stores – All actual & real sales were up for Club/SupCtrs & $ stores. On the other hand, Discount Dept Stores were only actually up Ytd vs 21 & 19. All real measurements are negative so none of their growth since 2019 is real. The other channels average 44% in real growth. Avg 19>24 Growth: SupCtr/Club: 6.0%, Real: 2.8%; $/Value Strs: +6.3%, Real: +3.1%; Disc. Dept. Strs: +1.6%, Real: -0.5%.
Office, Gift & Souvenir Stores – Sales were up 11.1% from July. This set the stage for a better month. They are now only actually down Ytd vs 23 & 19. However, all of their real sales numbers but vs Aug 23 are still negative. Their recovery started late, and their stalled progress may be trying to restart. Avg Growth Rate: -0.2%, Real: -2.2%
Internet/Mail Order – Sales are -1.4% from July but set a new monthly record of $112.28B. All measurements are positive, but their Ytd growth, +10.0%, is still only 62% of their average since 2019. However, 82.0% of their 112.3% growth since 2019 is real. Avg Growth: +16.2%, Real: +14.0%. As expected, they are by far the growth leader since 2019.
A/O Miscellaneous – Pet Stores are 22>24% of total $. In May 2020 they began their recovery which reached a record level of $100B for the first time in 2021. In 2022 their sales dipped in January, July, Sept>Nov, rose in December, fell in Jan>Feb 23, grew Mar>May, fell in Jun>Aug, rose in Sep>Nov, fell in Dec>Jan, grew in Feb>May, then fell in Jun>Aug. However, all measurements are positive. They are still in 2^nd place, behind the Internet, in the % increase vs 19 and vs 21. Also, 73% of their 54.8% growth since 2019 is real. Average 19>24 Growth: +9.1%, Real: +7.0%.

August had its usual lift as 7 small channels were up vs July. The Total Retail YOY lift was -48% below Avg but 7 of 11 smaller channels and 3 of 4 big groups were up vs Aug 23. Prices are deflating in 9 of 11 channels but cumulative inflation still matters. Many sales lifts are lower as 6 of 11 channels were really down vs Aug 21. The Retail Recovery appears to have restarted. The commodities CPI fell to -1.3% in September. Let’s see if continuing deflation impacts Retail $ales.

Aug>Sep sales were down for all. An Aug>Sep Total Retail drop has happened every year since 1992. However, the -7.5% drop is 21% more than the -6.2% average. All but 4 actual YOY $ measurements are positive for all. 3 of the drops are vs Sep 23 – Gas Stations, Auto & Total Retail. Total Retail was down -0.03% vs 23, the 2^nd drop in 24 but 1^st September drop since 2009. The Relevant Retail lift vs Sep 23 was -47% below their average. The Restaurants lift was -76% below average. Inflation is a big factor. The CPI for all commodities dropped to -1.3% but is still 10.3% vs 21. There is some “real” retail “not so good” news. In August, 2 measurements were “really” down vs 23 & 21. In September, 5 were really down. Only Relevant Retl was all positive. Of note: from Nov 23>Feb 24 Relevant Retail had 4 straight months of all positive measurements. After 2 months with a negative, they have been all positive in 4 of the last 5 months.

Overall – Inflation Reality – For Total Retail, deflation increased to -1.3% but YOY sales dropped vs Sep 23. For Restaurants, inflation remains high, +3.8% and they are now really down vs Sep 23. Gas prices fell but that group is still in turmoil. Auto prices rose but are still deflating. Sales fell vs Sep 23 and are really down in 2 measurements. Inflation rose from -0.1% to 0.1% for Relevant Retail but sales are again all positive. Their progress continues but is slowing.

Total Retail – Since June 20, every month but April 23 & June & September 24 has set a monthly sales record. In 2023, Sales were on a roller coaster. Up Jul>Aug, down Sept, up Oct>Dec, down Jan 24, up Feb>Mar, down April, up May, down June, up in Jul>Aug, down in September. Prices are now -1.3%, but September YOY sales are down for the 1^st time since 2009. Ytd Sales are up 2.6% vs 23, only 39% of their avg 19>24 growth. Plus, only 39% of the 19>24 growth is real. YOY pricing in Total Retail is still deflating but we see its cumulative impact. Growth: 23>24: 2.6%; Avg 19>24: +6.7%, Real: +2.8%.

Restaurants – They were hit hard by the pandemic and didn’t begin recovery until March 2021. However, they have had strong growth since then, exceeding $1T for the 1^st time in 2023 and set another monthly sales record in September. They have the biggest Ytd increases vs 23, 21 & 19 but are now really down vs Sep 23. Inflation slowed to 3.8% in September but is still +19.1% vs 21 and +26.9% vs 19. 35.6% of their 49.1% growth since 19 is real and they remain 3^rd in performance behind Relevant & Total. Recovery started late but inflation started early. Growth: 5.0%; Avg 19>24:+8.3%, Real: +3.3%. They just account for 13.6% of Total Retail $, but their performance has helped Total Retail.

Auto (Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers) – They actively worked to overcome the stay-at-home attitude with great deals and a lot of advertising. They finished 2020 up 1% vs 2019 and hit a record $1.48T in 2021 but much of it was due to skyrocketing inflation. In 22, sales got on a rollercoaster. Inflation started to drop mid-year, but it caused 4 down months in actual sales which are the only reported sales negatives by any big group in 21>22. This is bad but their Y/E real 2022 sales numbers were worse, down -8.2% vs 21 and -8.9% vs 19. 2023 was a true rollercoaster but the $ set a new record, $1.595T. $ fell in Jan 24, grew Feb>Mar, fell in Apr, grew in May, fell in June, grew in Jul>Aug, fell in September. Actual & Real $ vs 23 and Real Ytd vs 21 are negative. Only 17.8% of 19>24 growth is real. Growth: 0.9%; Avg 19>24: +5.4%, Real: +1.0%.

Gas Stations – Gas Stations were hit hard by “stay at home”. They started recovery in March 2021 and inflation began. Sales got on a rollercoaster in 2022 but reached a record $583B3. Inflation started to slow in August and prices slightly deflated in Dec 22 & Feb 23, then strongly fell in Mar>Jul to -20.2%. In August they rose to -3.7%. In Sep they were +2.7% but began deflating to -4.2% in Feb 24. In Mar>May they grew, fell in June, rose in July, then fell in Aug>Sep. $ are down monthly & Ytd vs 23. Real sales are down Monthly & Ytd vs 21 and 19. Growth: -2.4%; Avg 19>24: +4.4%, Real: -0.9%. They show the cumulative impact of inflation and demonstrate how deflation can be both a positive and a negative.

Relevant Retail – Less Auto, Gas and Restaurants – They account for ≈60% of Total Retail $ in a variety of channels, so they took many different paths through the pandemic. However, their only down month was April 2020, and they led the way in Total Retail’s recovery. Sales got on a roller coaster in 2022, but all months set new records with December reaching a new all-time high, $481B, and an annual record of $4.81T. In 2023, the roller coaster continued. A December lift set a new monthly record of $494.7B & an annual record of $4.997T. Sales fell in Jan>Feb 24, rose in Mar, fell in Apr, rose in May, fell in June, rose in Jul>Aug, then fell in September, a normal pattern. The September YOY lift of 2.5% is -47% below their 92>23 avg but all measurements are again positive. Also, 51% of their 41.3% 19>24 growth is real – #1 in performance. Growth: 3.3%; Avg 19>24: +7.3%, Real: +3.9%. This is where America shops. They ended 23 and started up 24 strong. In Mar>Apr recovery slowed. In May, things improved, worsened in June, rebounded in July, stabilized in August, then slowed in September.

Inflation is still low, but the cumulative impact is still there. YOY Sales changes are below average and even dropping. The overall progress is slowing. Some changes from August are significant. The Actual drops increased from 2 to 4 and real drops grew from 2 to 5. Gas Stations remain in turmoil and the progress in Auto & Restaurants is slowing. Relevant Retail’s YOY Sales increase slowed but all measurements are positive for the 4th time in the last 5 months. Total Retail broke this pattern in September with a YOY sales drop. After a bad June and the Jul>Aug rebound, the recovery is slowing again in September.

Here’s a more detailed look at September by Key Channels in the Stacked Bar Graph Format

Relevant Retail: Growth: +3.3%; Avg: +7.3%, Real: +3.9%. All channels were down from August. Vs Sep 23: 7 were up, Real: 5, Vs Sep 21: 7 were up, Real: 5. Vs 19: Only Dept Stores were actually & really down. Furnishing stores were also really down.
All Department Stores – This group was struggling before the pandemic hit them hard. They began recovery in March 2020. Sales are down -13.4% from August and their actual and real numbers are all negative. They are even actually & really down vs 2019. Growth: -1.4%; Avg 19>24: -0.2%, Real: -2.1%.
Club/SuprCtr/$- They fueled a big part of the recovery because they focus on value which has broad consumer appeal. $ales are -8.8% from August, but they are positive in all measurements. However, only 44.3% of their 34.5% 19>24 lift is real – inflation’s impact. Ytd growth is below average for the 6th straight month. Growth: 3.5%; Avg: +6.1%, Real: +2.9%.
Grocery- These stores depend on frequent purchases, so except for the binge buying in 2020, their changes are usually less radical. Actual $ are -4.4% from August, but positive in other comparisons. However, cumulative inflation has hit them hard. Real $ are only up Ytd vs 23 & 19. Only 5% of 19>24 growth is real. Growth: 1.8%; Avg 19>24: +5.2%, Real: +0.3 %.
Health/Drug Stores – Many stores are essential, but consumers visit less frequently than Grocery stores. $ are -2.3% from August, but they are up in all actual and real comparisons. Because inflation has been relatively low, 64% of their 27.8% growth from 2019 is real. Growth: 2.8%; Avg 19>24: +5.0%, Real: +3.3%
Clothing and Accessories – Clothes initially mattered less when you stayed home. That changed in March 2021 with strong growth through 2022. Sales are down -14.2% from August, but actual sales are up in all comparisons. However, real sales are only up Ytd vs 23 & 19, but 62% of their 19>24 growth is real. Growth: 2.4%; Avg 19>24: +3.3%, Real:+2.1%
Home Furnishings – In mid-2020 consumers’ focus turned to their homes and furniture became a priority. Prices are still deflating but they were high in 2022. Sales are -9.3% from August and negative in all measurements but actual vs 2019. They have sold less product in 2024 than in 2019. Growth: -5.1%;Avg 19>24: +2.3%, Real: -0.3%
Electronic & Appliances – This channel has had many issues. Sales fell in Apr>May of 2020 and didn’t reach 2019 levels until March 21. $ are -9.7% from August and they are only actually positive Ytd vs 23 & 19. Due to strong deflation , real sales are positive for all but vs Sep 23. Note: Their growth is now below their 19>24 average. Growth: +0.6%; Avg 19>24: +0.7%, Real: +3.7%.
Building Material, Farm & Garden & Hardware –They truly benefited from the consumers’ focus on home. In 2022 the lift slowed as inflation grew to double digits. Prices are still deflating but sales are -7.0% from August. Actual sales are only down Ytd vs 23. Prices are deflating but they are still 14.2% above 21 so real sales vs September & Ytd 21 are negative. Also, just 24% of their 19>24 sales growth is real. Growth: -2.0%; Avg 19>24: +5.6%, Real: +1.5%.
Sporting Goods, Hobby and Book Stores – Consumers turned their attention to recreation and Sporting Goods stores sales took off. Book & Hobby Stores recovered more slowly. After a big June lift, $ fell -1.5% in July, rebounded +11.5% in August, then fell -14.0% in September. All comparisons, actual & real, but Ytd vs 2019 are negative. Their inflation rate has been lower than most groups so 71% of their 24.6% growth since 2019 is real. Growth: -3.9%; Avg 19>24: +4.4%, Real: +3.2%.
All Miscellaneous Stores – Pet Stores have been a key part of the strong and growing recovery of this group. They finished 2020 at +0.9% but sales took off in March 21 and have continued to grow. Sales are -0.9% vs August, but positive in all measurements vs 23, 21 & 19. They are still 2^nd in the % increase vs 19 and 3rd vs 21. 67.3% of their 41.0% 19>24 growth is real, but their current Ytd lift is still 13% below average. Growth: +6.2%; Avg 19>24: +7.1%, Real: 5.0%.
NonStore Retailers – 90% of their $ comes from Internet/Mail Order/TV. The pandemic accelerated online spending. They ended 2020 +21.4%. The growth continued in 2021 as sales exceeded $100B for the 1^st time and they broke the $1 Trillion barrier. Their $ are -4.7% from August but their YOY lift grew to +8.4% in September. However, their Ytd lift is still 45% below average. They are positive in all measurements and 81% of their 99.5% 19>24 growth is real. Growth: 8.2%; Avg: +14.8%, Real: +12.5%.

Note: Almost without exception, online sales by brick ‘n mortar retailers are recorded with their regular store sales.

Recap – The Retail recovery from the pandemic was largely driven by Relevant Retail and by the end of 2021 it had become very widespread. In 2022, there was a new challenge, the worst inflation in 40 years. Overall, inflation has slowed considerably from its June 22 peak and now 7 channels are deflating. This should help the Retail Situation. As expected, $ fell from August but the -6.5% drop for Relevant Retail was 20% more than their 92>23 avg. This was a big drop, but the big problem has been slowing YOY monthly increases. In August, their 3.4% lift vs 23 was -27% below average, only 3 of 11 channels had a YOY $ decrease and 10 of 11 sold more product. In September, their 2.5% YOY lift was -47% below average, 4 of 11 had a $ decrease and only 5 of 11 sold more product. Also, in August, there were 3 channels with lifts of 6.5+%. In September, only 2. Plus, in August, 1 channel, Electronics/Appliances again had a Ytd lift above their 19>24 Avg. That ended in September. Things are definitely worse, but here is some good news. Relevant Retail is again positive in all comparisons. That has happened in 4 of the last 5 months. The recovery slowed in June, strongly restarted in July, continued in August, but is definitely slowing again!

Monthly YOY CPI changes of 0.2% or more are highlighted. (Green = lower; Pink = higher)

I’m sure that this list raises some questions. Here are some answers to some of the more obvious ones.

Why is the group for Non-store different from the Internet?
- Non-store is not all internet. It also includes Fuel Oil Dealers, the non-motor fuel Energy Commodity.
Why is there no Food at home included in Non-store or Internet?
- Online Grocery purchasing is becoming popular but almost all is from companies whose major business is brick ‘n mortar. These online sales are recorded under their primary channel.
6 Channels have the same CPI aggregate but represent a variety of business types.
- They also have a wide range of product types. Rather than try to build aggregates of a multitude of small expenditure categories, it seemed better to eliminate the biggest, influential groups that they don’t sell. This method is not perfect, but it is certainly closer than any existing aggregate.
Why are Grocery and Supermarkets only tied to the Grocery CPI?
- According to the Economic Census, 76% of their sales comes from Grocery products. Grocery Products are the driver. The balance of their sales comes from a collection of a multitude of categories.
What about Drug/Health Stores only being tied to Medical Commodities.
- An answer similar to the one for Grocery/Supermarkets. However, in this case Medical Commodities account for over 80% of these stores’ total sales.
Why do SuperCtrs/Clubs and $ Stores have the same CPI?
- While the Big Stores sell much more fresh groceries, Groceries account for ¼ of $ Store sales. Both Channels generally offer most of the same product categories, but the actual product mix is different.

Retail Channel $ Update – July Monthly & August Advance

September 23, 2024/in Pet Market Distribution Channels/by John Gibbons

In August, Commodities deflation vs last year accelerated to -1.2% from -0.4%. Although still deflating, the high prices from cumulative inflation still impact consumer spending. The YOY Total Retail sales lift for August is 53% of the 92>23 average but the Relevant Retail increase is 73% – Both are radically down from July. Prices are now deflating in many channels but still high vs 21, which can slow growth in the amount of product sold. There is still a long road to recovery, so we’ll continue to track the retail market with data from 2 reports provided by the Census Bureau and factor in a targeted CPI.

We will begin with the July Monthly Report and then go to the August Advance Report. Our focus is comparing to last year but also 2021 & 2019. We’ll show both actual and the “real” change in sales as we factor inflation into the data.

Both reports include the following:

Total Retail, Restaurants, Auto, Gas Stations and Relevant Retail (removing Restaurants, Auto and Gas)
Individual Channel Data – This is more detailed in the Monthly reports, and we’ll focus on Pet Relevant Channels.

Current Month change – % & $ vs previous month
Current Month change – % & $ vs same month last year and vs 2021.
- Current Month Real change vs last year and vs 2021 – % factoring in inflation
Current Ytd change – % & $ for this year vs last year, 2021 & 2019.
- Current Ytd Real change % for this year vs last year and vs 2021 and 2019
Monthly & Ytd $ & CPIs for this year vs last year and vs 2021 which are targeted by channel will also be shown. (CPI Details are at the end of the report)

First, the July Monthly. Only Restaurants were down from June and there was only 1 actual sales drop vs 23 & 21. We should note that Gas Stations are still selling less product than in 2019. Also, Relevant Retail is all positive again. They have been all positive in 6 of the last 9 months but only in 2 of the last 5. ($ are Not Seasonally Adjusted)

The July Monthly is $1.7B more than the Advance report. Restaurants: +$0.1B; Auto: +$1.4B; Gas Stations: +$0.4B; Relevant Retail: -$0.1B. In a bit of a surprise. $ales were up vs June for all but Restaurants. A Jun>Jul increase in Total Retail only happens about 50% of the time. The 3.4% lift was also far above the 0.1% avg. There was only 1 drop in actual sales – Ytd vs 23 for Gas Stations. There were 5 “real” sales drops, down from 9 last month. Total and Relevant Retail were both all positive. Restaurants still have the biggest increases vs 21 & 19 but Relevant Retail stayed at the top of “real” performance vs 2019. However, only 51% of their growth is real.

Now, let’s see how some Key Pet Relevant channels did in July in the Stacked Bar Graph Format

Overall– 6 of 11 were up from June. vs July 23, 7 were both actually and “really” up. Vs July 21, 7 were up but only 5 were real increases. Vs 2019, Off/Gift/Souv were actually & really down and Disc Dept Strs were also really down.

Building Material Stores – The pandemic focus on home has produced sales growth of 30.5% since 2019. Prices for the Bldg/Matl group have inflated 16.7% since 2021 which is having an impact. HomeCtr/Hdwe are only actually up vs July 23 & 21 and Ytd vs 19, but Farm stores are only actually up Ytd vs 19. Only the “real” measurement vs July 21 is negative for Home/Hdwe. For Farm Stores all “real” numbers but vs 19 are negative. Plus, only 22% of the overall Building Materials group’s 19>24 lift was real. Avg 19>24 Growth: HomeCtr/Hdwe: 5.3%, Real: 1.1%; Farm: 6.4%, Real: 2.2%
Food & Drug – Both are truly essential. Except for the pandemic food binge buying, they tend to have smaller changes in $. In terms of inflation, the Grocery rate is only 39% of the rate for Drug/Med products. Drug Stores are positive in all measurements and 63% of their 2019>24 growth is real. Supermarkets’ actual $ are up in all measurements and they are only “really” down vs 2021. However, only 6% of their 19>24 increase is real growth. Avg 19>24 Growth: Supermarkets: +5.1%, Real: +0.3%; Drug Stores: +4.8%, Real: +3.1%.
Sporting Goods Stores – They also benefited from the pandemic in that consumers turned to self-entertainment, especially sports & outdoor activities. Sales are down from June and their only positives are actual & real Ytd vs 19. Prices are still deflating, -1.8% vs 23. Deflation started in April 23 and is a big change from +1.1% in 22>23 and +7.9% in 21>22. The result is that 57% of their 35.4% lift since 19 is real. Avg 19>24 Growth Rate is: +6.2%; Real: +3.8%.
Gen Mdse Stores – All actual & real sales were up for Club/SupCtrs & $ stores. On the other hand, Discount Dept Stores were only actually up Ytd vs 21 & 19. All real measurements are negative so none of their growth since 2019 is real. The other channels average 44% in real growth. Avg 19>24 Growth: SupCtr/Club: 6.0%, Real: 2.8%; $/Value Strs: +6.3%, Real: +3.1%; Disc. Dept. Strs: +1.6%, Real: -0.4%.
Office, Gift & Souvenir Stores – Sales were down -1.2% from June. This set the stage for a bad month. They are only actually up Ytd vs 21. All of their real sales numbers including Ytd vs 2019 are negative. Their recovery started late, and their slow progress has been stalled since June 23. Avg Growth Rate: -0.3%, Real: -2.3%
Internet/Mail Order – Sales are +7.3% from June and set a new monthly record of $113.95B. All measurements are positive, but their growth (+10.2%) is still only 63% of their average since 2019. However, 82.0% of their 113.1% growth since 2019 is real. Avg Growth: +16.3%, Real: +14.0%. As expected, they are still by far the growth leader since 2019.
A/O Miscellaneous – Pet Stores are 22>24% of total $. In May 2020 they began their recovery which reached a record level of $100B for the first time in 2021. In 2022 their sales dipped in January, July, Sept>Nov, rose in December, fell in Jan>Feb 23, grew Mar>May, fell in Jun>Aug, rose in Sep>Nov, fell in Dec>Jan, grew in Feb>May, then fell in Jun>Jul. However, all measurements are positive. They are still in 2^nd place, behind the Internet, in the % increase vs 19 and vs 21. Also, 73% of their 56.6% growth since 2019 is real. Average 19>24 Growth: +9.4%, Real: +7.2%.

July brought an unusual lift as 6 small channels were up vs June. The YOY lift for Total Retail was only -9% below Avg as 7 of 11 smaller channels and all big groups were up vs July 23. Prices are deflating in 7 of 11 channels but cumulative inflation is still a factor. Many sales lifts are lower as 6 of 11 channels were really down vs July 21. The Retail Recovery may be growing again. The commodities CPI fell to -1.2% in August. Let’s see if continuing deflation impacts Retail $ales.

August sales vs July increased for all but Gas Stations. A Jul>Aug Total Retail lift has happened in 78% of the years since 1992. However, the 1.5% lift is -32% below average. All actual YOY $ measurements are positive for all groups but Gas Stations. The Relative Retl lift vs Aug 23 was -27% below their 92>23 Average. The lifts for Tot Retl, Restaurants & Auto were also well below avg. Inflation is still a big factor. The CPI for all commodities, the best pricing measure for Retail, dropped to -1.2% but is 10.3% vs 21. There is some “real” retail good news. In July, 4 measurements were “really” down vs 23 & 21. In August, only 2 were really down, Auto & Gas Stations Ytd vs 21. Total & Relevant Retl & Restaurants were all positive. Of note: from Nov 23>Feb 24 Relevant Retail had 4 straight months of all positive measurements. After 2 months with a negative, they have been all positive in 3 of the last 4 months. Total Retail has the same Apr>Aug pattern.

Overall – Inflation Reality – For Total Retail, deflation increased to -1.2% and all measurements were again positive. For Restaurants, inflation remains high, +3.9% but they are again all positive. Gas prices fell but that group is still in turmoil. Auto prices are still falling and are only +2.3% vs 21 which helped actual & real sales. Inflation fell to -0.1% for Relevant Retail and sales are again all positive. Their progress appears to be getting back on track.

Total Retail – Since June 20, every month but April 23 & June 24 has set a monthly sales record. In 2023, Sales were on a roller coaster. Up Jul>Aug, down Sept, up Oct>Dec, down Jan 24, up Feb>Mar, down April, up May, down June, up in Jul>Aug. Prices are now -1.2%. Monthly YOY sales growth is only 52% of the 92>23 avg. Sales are up 2.9% Ytd vs 2023, only 43% of their avg 19>24 growth. Plus, only 39% of the 19>24 growth is real. YOY inflation in Total Retail has slowed and is still deflating but we still see its cumulative impact. Growth: 23>24: 2.9%; Avg 19>24: +6.7%, Real: +2.8%.

Restaurants – They were hit hard by the pandemic and didn’t begin recovery until March 2021. However, they have had strong growth since then, exceeding $1T for the 1^st time in 2023 and set another monthly sales record in August. They have the biggest Ytd increases vs 23, 21 & 19 and are again positive in all measurements. Inflation slowed to 3.9% in August but is still +19.4% vs 21 and +26.7% vs 19. 36.0% of their 49.1% growth since 19 is real and they remain 3^rd in performance behind Relevant & Total. Recovery started late but inflation started early. Growth: 5.3%; Avg 19>24:+8.3%, Real: +3.3%. They just account for 13.6% of Total Retail $, but their performance has helped Total Retail.

Auto (Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers) – They actively worked to overcome the stay-at-home attitude with great deals and a lot of advertising. They finished 2020 up 1% vs 2019 and hit a record $1.48T in 2021 but much of it was due to skyrocketing inflation. In 22, sales got on a rollercoaster. Inflation started to drop mid-year, but it caused 4 down months in actual sales which are the only reported sales negatives by any big group in 21>22. This is bad but their Y/E real 2022 sales numbers were much worse, down -8.2% vs 2021 and -8.9% vs 2019. 2023 was a true rollercoaster but the $ set a new record, $1.595T. $ fell in Jan 24, grew Feb>Mar, fell in Apr, grew in May, fell in June, grew in Jul>Aug. Only Real Ytd vs 21 is negative. Their CPI is -4.4%. Only 17.8% of 19>24 growth is real. Growth: 1.5%; Avg 19>24: +5.4%, Real: +1.1%.

Gas Stations – Gas Stations were hit hard by “stay at home”. They started recovery in March 2021 and inflation began. Sales got on a rollercoaster in 2022 but reached a record $583B3. Inflation started to slow in August and prices slightly deflated in Dec & Feb 23, then strongly fell in Mar>Jul to -20.2%. In August they rose to -3.7%. In Sep they were +2.7% but began deflating to -4.2% in Feb. In Mar>May they grew, fell in June, rose in July, then fell in August. $ are down monthly & Ytd vs 23. Real sales are down Ytd vs 21 and 19. Growth: -1.3%; Avg 19>24: +4.5%, Real: -1.0%. They show the cumulative impact of inflation and demonstrate how deflation can be both a positive and a negative.

Relevant Retail – Less Auto, Gas and Restaurants – They account for ≈60% of Total Retail $ in a variety of channels, so they took many different paths through the pandemic. However, their only down month was April 2020, and they led the way in Total Retail’s recovery. Sales got on a roller coaster in 2022, but all months set new records with December reaching a new all-time high, $481B, and an annual record of $4.81T. In 2023, the roller coaster continued. A December lift set a new monthly record of $494.7B & an annual record of $4.997T. Sales fell in Jan>Feb 24, rose in Mar, fell in Apr, rose in May, fell in June, then rose in Jul>Aug, a normal pattern. The August YOY lift of 3.4% is -27% below their 92>23 avg but all measurements are again positive. Also, 51% of their 41.1% 19>24 growth is real – #1 in performance. Growth: 3.4%; Avg 19>24: +7.1%, Real: +3.9%. This is where America shops. They finished 2023 and started up 2024 strong. In Mar>Apr their recovery slowed. In May, things improved, worsened in June, rebounded in July, then stabilized in August.

Inflation is still low, but the cumulative impact is still there. Sales increases are still below average. However, the overall situation is improving. It is very significant that there are only 2 real drops vs 23 & 21. There were 8 in June. Restaurants bounced back and the Auto group is still improving. Gas Stations remain in turmoil. The biggest concern is still with Relevant Retail. Their YOY Sales increase slowed but all measurements are positive for the 3^rd time in the last 4 months. Total Retail has a similar pattern. After a bad June, the recovery appears to be getting “back on track” in Jul>Aug.

Here’s a more detailed look at August by Key Channels in the Stacked Bar Graph Format

Relevant Retail: Growth: +3.4%; Avg: +7.1%, Real: +3.9%. 9 were up from July. Vs Aug 23: 8 were up, Real: 10, Vs Aug 21: 7 were up, Real: 6. Vs 19: Only Dept Stores were actually & really down. Furnishing stores were also really down.
All Department Stores – This group was struggling before the pandemic hit them hard. They began recovery in March 2020. Sales are up 9.1% from July. Their actual $ are only up Ytd vs 21 and the only positive real number is vs August 23. They are even actually & really down vs 2019. Growth: -1.3%; Avg 19>24: -0.2%, Real: -2.2%.
Club/SuprCtr/$- They fueled a big part of the recovery because they focus on value which has broad consumer appeal. $ales are +4.7% from July, and they are positive in all measurements. However, only 44.4% of their 34.2% 19>24 lift is real – inflation’s impact. Ytd growth is below Avg for the 5th straight month. Growth: 3.8%; Avg: +6.1%, Real: +2.9%.
Grocery- These stores depend on frequent purchases, so except for the binge buying in 2020, their changes are usually less radical. Actual $ are +0.1% from July and positive in other comparisons. However, cumulative inflation has hit them hard. Real $ are only up vs 23 & 19 and only 5% of 19>24 growth is real. Growth: 1.9%; Avg 19>24: +5.1%, Real: +0.3%.
Health/Drug Stores – Many stores are essential, but consumers visit less frequently than Grocery stores. $ are +2.5% from July. They are up in all actual comparisons and only really down Ytd vs 23. Because inflation has been relatively low, 63% of their 27.0% growth from 2019 is real. Growth: 2.7%; Avg 19>24: +4.9%, Real: +3.2%
Clothing and Accessories – Clothes initially mattered less when you stayed home. That changed in March 2021 with strong growth through 2022. Sales are up 7.5% from July and positive in all comparisons but real Ytd vs 21. Plus, 62% of their 19>24 growth is real. Growth: 2.6%; Avg 19>24: +3.2%, Real:+2.0%
Home Furnishings – In mid-2020 consumers’ focus turned to their homes and furniture became a priority. Prices are still deflating but they were high in 2022. Sales are +4.5% from July but negative in all measurements but actual vs 2019 & actual & real vs Aug 23. They have sold less product in 2024 than 2019. Growth: -5.1%; Avg 19>24: +2.4%, Real: -0.2%
Electronic & Appliances – This channel has had many issues. Sales fell in Apr>May of 2020 and didn’t reach 2019 levels until March 21. $ are +2.9% from July and they are only negative in Ytd actual sales vs 21. We should also note that they are the only channel with Ytd growth above their 19>24 avg. Growth: +1.7%; Avg 19>24: +0.9%, Real: +3.8%.
Building Material, Farm & Garden & Hardware –They truly benefited from the consumers’ focus on home. In 2022 the lift slowed as inflation grew to double digits. Prices are still deflating but sales are -2.6% from July. Actual sales are only down monthly and Ytd vs 23. Prices are deflating but they are still 15.8% above 21 so real sales vs August & Ytd 21 are negative. Also, just 23% of their 19>24 sales growth is real. Growth: -2.3%; Avg 19>24: +5.5%, Real: +1.4%.
Sporting Goods, Hobby and Book Stores – Consumers turned their attention to recreation and Sporting Goods stores sales took off. Book & Hobby Stores recovered more slowly. After a big June lift sales fell -1.5% in July but rebounded +11.5% in August. All comparisons, actual & real, but Ytd vs 2019 are negative. Their inflation rate has been lower than most groups so 71% of their 24.6% growth since 2019 is real. Growth: -3.5%; Avg 19>24: +4.5%, Real: +3.3%.
All Miscellaneous Stores – Pet Stores have been a key part of the strong and growing recovery of this group. They finished 2020 at +0.9% but sales took off in March 21 and have continued to grow. Sales are +2.9% vs July and positive in all measurements vs 23, 21 & 19. They are still 2^nd in the % increase vs 19 but fell to 3rd vs 21. 67.2% of their 40.8% 19>24 growth is real, but their current Ytd lift is still 11% below Avg. Growth: +6.3%; Avg 19>24: +7.1%, Real: 5.0%.
NonStore Retailers – 90% of their $ comes from Internet/Mail Order/TV. The pandemic accelerated online spending. They ended 2020 +21.4%. The growth continued in 2021 as sales exceeded $100B for the 1^st time and they broke the $1 Trillion barrier. $ are -2.0% from July. Their YOY lift fell to +5.6% in August and Ytd they are 44% below Avg. They are positive in all measurements and 81% of their 99.9% 19>24 growth is real. Growth: 8.3%; Avg: +14.9%, Real: +12.6%.

Note: Almost without exception, online sales by brick ‘n mortar retailers are recorded with their regular store sales.

Recap – The Retail recovery from the pandemic was largely driven by Relevant Retail and by the end of 2021 it had become very widespread. In 2022, there was a new challenge, the worst inflation in 40 years. Overall, inflation has slowed considerably from its June 22 peak and now 8 channels are deflating. This should help the Retail Situation. Sales grew from July but the 1.2% lift for Relevant Retail was -58% below their 3.0% 92>23 avg. This was a big drop from last month. However, the big problem has been slowing YOY monthly increases. That temporarily changed in July as the YOY lift vs 23 was 11% above their 92>23 average increase. In August, the 3.4% lift vs 23 was -27% below average. However, only 3 of 11 channels had a $ decrease and 10 of 11 sold more product in 2024 than in 2023. In August, there were 3 channels with lifts of 6.5+%. In July there were 4, but only 1 in June. One channel, Electronics/Appliances again had a Ytd lift above their 19>24 Avg. There is more good news. Relevant Retail is again positive in all comparisons. That’s now happened in 3 of the last 4 months. The recovery definitely slowed in June, but it strongly restarted in July and continued in August.

Monthly YOY CPI changes of 0.2% or more are highlighted. (Green = lower; Pink = higher)

I’m sure that this list raises some questions. Here are some answers to some of the more obvious ones.

Why is the group for Non-store different from the Internet?
- Non-store is not all internet. It also includes Fuel Oil Dealers, the non-motor fuel Energy Commodity.
Why is there no Food at home included in Non-store or Internet?
- Online Grocery purchasing is becoming popular but almost all is from companies whose major business is brick ‘n mortar. These online sales are recorded under their primary channel.
6 Channels have the same CPI aggregate but represent a variety of business types.
- They also have a wide range of product types. Rather than try to build aggregates of a multitude of small expenditure categories, it seemed better to eliminate the biggest, influential groups that they don’t sell. This method is not perfect, but it is certainly closer than any existing aggregate.
Why are Grocery and Supermarkets only tied to the Grocery CPI?
- According to the Economic Census, 76% of their sales comes from Grocery products. Grocery Products are the driver. The balance of their sales comes from a collection of a multitude of categories.
What about Drug/Health Stores only being tied to Medical Commodities.
- An answer similar to the one for Grocery/Supermarkets. However, in this case Medical Commodities account for over 80% of these stores’ total sales.
Why do SuperCtrs/Clubs and $ Stores have the same CPI?
- While the Big Stores sell much more fresh groceries, Groceries account for ¼ of $ Store sales. Both Channels generally offer most of the same product categories, but the actual product mix is different.

2023 Top 100 U.S. Retailers – Sales: $2.93 Trillion, Up 3.0%; 165,493 Stores with Pet Products……plus the Internet!

September 9, 2024/in Pet Market Distribution Channels/by John Gibbons

The U.S. Retail market reached $8.29 Trillion in 2023 from all channels – Auto Dealers, Supermarkets, Restaurants, Online retailers and even Pet Stores. The $273B, +3.4% lift was down significantly from the pandemic recovery lift of +$1.14T, +18.4% in 2021. However, the Total Retail market is now $2.12T, 34.3% ahead of 2019. That’s a strong annual growth rate of +7.7%. (Data courtesy of the Census Bureau’s monthly retail trade report.)

In this report we will focus on the top 100 Retailers in the U.S. Market. The base data on the Top 100 comes from Kantar Research and was published by the National Retail Federation (NRF). The historical data for some companies that weren’t in the Top 100 all years from 2019>2023 was gathered from other reliable sources. In 2020, Restaurants were removed from the list and only Convenience stores sales for Gas Stations were included. I adjusted the 2019 list to reflect this change. This change means that the Top 100 now only includes Relevant Retail companies. The Top 100 account for 35.3% of the total market. This share peaked at 39.0% during the 2020 pandemic and has slowly declined since then. However, the Top 100 are still the “Retail Elite”. The vast majority of the group also stock and sell a lot of Pet Products so their progress is critically important to the Pet Industry. Let’s get started in our analysis. The report does contain a lot of data, but we’ll break it up into smaller pieces to make it more digestible.

We will begin our report with an overview chart of the 2019>2023 annual sales history for major segments of the Retail Marketplace. The U.S. Retail market strongly recovered from the 2020 pandemic trauma and the resurgence became widespread across most channels. Our regular retail sales reports have shown that different defined retail channels often took a different path from 2019 to 2021. In the Spring of 2021 and throughout 2022 the retail market faced a new challenge – strong inflation. The YOY price increases were the largest in decades, even reaching double digits in October of 2021 (stayed for 11 months). The high rate didn’t start to slow until the July of 2022. Although the increase rate has slowed, the retail market is now feeling the impact of high cumulative inflation. The Top 100 analysis allows us to see if the company revenue size was a factor in their overall pandemic/price journey from 2019>2023. The following chart shows the annual sales and market share as well as the changes in both for large retail subgroups that are based upon the amount of their annual revenue. Note: In comments we’ll show Avg Growth Rates – Actual & Real (Inflation Related)

The Total Retail Market grew $273B, +3.4% in 2023. That is far less than the $1.14T, +18.4% in 2021 and even below pre-pandemic years: 2019, 3.6%; 2018, 4.9%; 2017, 4.3%. However, the average growth rate from 2019>23 is 7.7%, which is almost double the 2016>19 rate of 3.9%. Factoring in inflation, Real 19>23 growth was +2.7%, exactly equal to 16>19. The impact of cumulative inflation – smaller sales increases and only 35% of 19>23 growth is real.
The “Non-Relevant” Retail Group (Restaurants, Auto Dlrs, Gas Stations) was hit hardest by the pandemic as sales fell -9.6% in 2020. They had a strong recovery as 20>22 sales grew $932B, for an average 19>22 growth rate of 8.8%. In 23 the increase slowed to 2.6%. High inflation was a factor for all groups. Gas: +34%; Auto: +28%; Restaurants: +23%
Relevant Retail was the hero of the pandemic as they kept Total Retail positive in 2020. Their sales surged in the 2021 recovery then radically slowed in 22 (7.1%) & 23 (3.9%). They were still up $192B producing an average growth rate since 2019 of +8.0%. Their Real growth rate (considering inflation) was +4.0%. Their share of Total Retail has stabilized but is down 3.3% from its peak in 2020. The story is a bit more complex. Let’s drill deeper into this group.
The Top 100 Retailers make up 57.5% of Relevant Retail and 35.3% of Total Retail. Sales have grown every year since 2019 but slowed markedly in 23. Their market share has fallen since peaking in 2020 for Relevant Retail and 2019 for Total Retail. Their avg growth since 2019 is +6.1%, but Real Growth is only +2.7%. Only 44.3% of their growth is real.
The biggest subgroup in $ales in the Top 100 is the Top 10 which accounts for 59.3% of the Top 100’s revenue, up from 55% in 2019. This group has been unchanged since 2015 and consists of Amazon, plus truly essential brick ‘n mortar retailers. Their biggest sales surge occurred in 2020 which was their peak in Retail market share. Their growth slowed in 23 but their average growth rate is +8.1%. Real growth was +4.1% – 50.6%.
The Retailers ranked from #11 to #100 change slightly every year. Their sales in 2023 ranged from $4.1B to $69B and they accounted for 40.7% of the Top 100’s revenue. They have an unusual sales pattern in that their $46B decrease in 2020 is the only negative sales on the chart outside of the big drop by Rest/Auto/Gas. They did have a strong 10.7% increase in 2021 but that fell to 6.1% in 22 & 1.9% in 23. They have also lost market share in Total & Relevant Retail every year since 2019 but are still a big part of U.S. Retail. Avg 19>23 Growth: +3.4%; Real: 0.9% – only 26.5%.
The Relevant Retailers outside of the Top 100 don’t get a lot of “press” but maybe they should. They currently account for 42.5% of Relevant Retail $ and 26.2% of Total Retail. They had the biggest percentage increase of any Relevant Retail subgroup overall and in all years but 2020 (2^nd). Their increase since 2019 is +10.9%. Real: +6.8%, the best numbers of any group on the chart. While this performance is amazing, perhaps the most important fact is that they delivered 60% of Relevant Retail’s sales increase in 2020 and even 55% of the lift from 2019>2023.

There is no doubt that the big retailers are critical to the success of the U.S. Retail Market. However, there are sometimes “hidden heroes” that should be noted.

The Top 100 outperformed Total Retail in 2020 but not in 2021>2023. In fact, the sales growth since 2019 trails Total Retail, Relevant Retail and even Rest/Auto/Gas. It still generates 35.3% of Total U.S. Retail $ so it is still very important. We also should remember that the Top 100 is really a contest with a changing list of winners. Companies drop out and new ones are added. This can be the result of mergers, acquisitions, surging or slumping sales or even a corporate restructuring. In 2023. Overstock.com gained the rights for online sales from Bed, Bath & Beyond. Only 2 were new:

Overstock.com (Home Gds)
Save Mart (Supermarket) – returns after dropping off in 2022

To make room, 2 companies dropped off the list. Neither was a surprise.

Barnes & Noble (Book Store) – Category now gone from list
Office Depot (Office Supplies) – Only 1 left on the list.

I think that we now have a good overview of U.S. Retail and the Top 100 so let’s ask and answer a very relevant question. How many Top 100 companies are buying and selling Pet Products? This will reinforce that Pets have become an integral part of the American Household and how fierce that the competition for the Pet Parents’ $ has become.

We should note that the data in the chart only reflects the performance of the companies in the 2023 list since 2019 and is not being compared to the Top 100 list of companies from prior years
87 are again selling some Pet Products in stores and/or online. There is 1 more in the online only segment due to the addition of Overstock.com to the list. Note: 87 is 7 more companies than the 1^st “official” all Relevant Retail Top 100 list in 2020.
- Their Total Retail Sales of all products is $2.83 Trillion which is…
  - 96.6% of the total business for the Top 100
  - 55.5% of Relevant Retail
  - 34.1% of the Total Retail market
- 72 Cos., with $2.65T in sales sell pet products off the retail shelf in 165,493 stores – 12,000 more than 2020.
  - In 2023, the current Top 100 companies made no changes in how they handle pet products.
  - As you can see by the growth in both sales and store count since 2019, “in store” is still the best way to sell pet.
- Online only is another story and the story gets complicated.
  - Amazon includes Whole Foods, which has stores in 45 states so the Amazon $ are in the “Pet in Store” numbers.
  - 1 New Retailer in the 2023 list (Overstock.com) is online only. This group had decreased sales and closed stores in 2020. 21 & 22 brought a rebound in both areas but the sales lift slowed in 23. They still lead Non-Pet in the 19>23 $ lift.
Some non-pet specialty retailers like Lulumon and Signet have had extraordinarily strong post pandemic growth. However, the growth in the non-pet group has slowed in 2022 and fell -2.7% in 2023. They have also closed 4.5% of their stores, which is now thankfully reversing. Perhaps, more of them will see Pet as a new growth opportunity.

The pandemic caused our Pets to become an even more important part of our households. They are truly family. Pet products have long been an integral part of the strongest retailers and are now even more widespread across the entire U.S. marketplace. Of the Top 100, 165,493 stores carry at least some pet items at retail. However, there are thousands of additional “pet” outlets including 15,000 Grocery Stores, 10,000 Pet Stores, 16,000 Vet Clinics, 6,000 Pet Services businesses and more. Pet Products are on the shelf in over 215,000 U.S. brick ‘n mortar stores… plus the internet. Pet Products have become part of the new “normal” for the majority of U.S. Retailers.

Before we analyze the whole Top 100 list in greater detail let’s take a quick look at the Top 10 retailers in the U.S.

Except for changes in rank, this group has been incredibly stable. The list has been the same since 2013, with one slight qualification. In 2015 Albertsons purchased Safeway. The new Albertsons/Safeway group replaced the stand-alone Safeway company in the list. We have again included the average annual 19>23 growth rates – both Actual & Real (Inflation was factored in using specifically targeted CPIs) Now let’s get into the numbers.

Their Total Retail Sales were $1.74 Trillion which is:
- 59.3% of Top 100 $ales, slightly above the previous 2020 peak (58.9%) and 4.3% more than 55% in 2019.
- 34.1% of Relevant Retail, equal to 21 & 22 but down from 35.5 in 2020.
- 20.9% of Total U.S. Retail $, equal to 22, down from 21.2% in 21 and 23.0% in 20, but above 20.6% in 2019.
In ranking, there was only 1 change. CVS & Target swapped places.
Sales vs 22 are only down for Home Depot, Target & Lowes. All are up vs 19. The biggest growth vs 21 & 19 came from Amazon. In average growth, 4 have rates over 8%. The group averages +8.1% with +4.1% (51%) being real.
Driven by Drug, Store count turned down -1.4% vs 22. It is still down vs 19 for 4 companies and -1.5% for the group.

Now we’ll look at the detailed list of the top 100. It is sorted by channel groups with subtotals in key columns. The data only reflects the situation for the current 2023 Top 100 Retailers. Retailers have slightly changed in some groups through the years but there has been very little difference in group share. CPI Note: To better reflect their “real” product sales, I used a specific CPI rate for each retailer. These ranged from individual expenditures, like Alcohol at Home for Total Wine & More to specially created targeted aggregates for Superstores/Clubs. For the group, the individual inflation results were then combined to more accurately reflect the group price changes . There is not a lot of highlighting, but:

Pet Columns ’23 & ‘22 – a “1” with an orange highlight indicates that products are only sold online.
Rank Columns – 2023 changes in rank from the 2022 list are highlighted as follows:
- Up 3-5 spots = Lt Blue; Up 6 or more = Green
- Down 3-5 Spots = Yellow; Down 6 or more = Pink

Let’s get started. Remember, online $ are included in the sales of all companies.

Note:(*) in the 2019 columns of some companies means the 2019 base was estimated from other sources.

Observations

Alcohol Retailers first made the list in 2020 as consumers increased dining at home. Strong growth continues.
Apparel – They were hit hard by the pandemic, but had a strong recovery in 2021. The increase slowed to 1.9% in 2022 but came back strong in 2023, +6.5%. 6 companies had sales increases over 9% from 2022. Foot Locker had the only major decrease, -18.1%. Group Store count is up vs 22 (+2.6%) and vs 19 (+4.4%). The average group sales increase was Actual: +5.7%; Real: +4.4% (77%). The category has fewer companies than in 2021 but more than in 2019.
Auto – This group is unchanged from 2019. Their growth slowed a little in 22 & 23 but the only negative for this group is that Advance Auto’s store count is down -1.4% from 2019. Group Avg Growth: +9.0%; Real: +3.4%. (38%).
Book Stores – Barnes & Noble dropped off so like 2019 & 2020 no Book Stores are in the Top 100.
Commissary/Exchanges – They were on hold from 2019>22. Both Group Sales & Store Count grew in 2023 which pushed their Avg Actual Sales to +1.7%. However, their Real Sales Avg is -2.1%.
Convenience Stores – Sales are down in 23 due to 7-Eleven. Their 2022 acquisition of Speedway fueled most of the group’s 19>23 growth. The group’s Avg Actual Sales change: +5.4%;Real: -0.4%, due to strong inflation.
The decline in Department Stores was accelerated by the pandemic. Sales in the category grew in 22 because of the addition of Neiman Marcus. Neiman Marcus’ sales are up again in 2023. Dillard’s & Neiman Marcus have the only significant actual growth since 19. Real growth is down for all. In fact, all group measurements are negative. J.C. Penny, a hallmark in the department store channel, has by far the worst performance.
Drug Stores – Rite Aid filed for bankruptcy and have the only sales drop vs 22. All have been closing stores since 2019 but only Good Neighbor has lower sales. The group avg sales from 2019>23 are Actual: +2.9%; Real: + 1.4% (48% real growth). CVS has the strongest growth, but it is primarily due to acquisitions.

Electronics/Entertainment – Sales vs 22 fell for all but Amazon but their increase was big enough to turn the group positive. Store closures continued, especially for electronics retailers.
- Amazon Retail growth increased in 23 but is still only 49% of their average 19>23 growth. However, 81% is Real.
- 3 were down vs 2019 with Qurate having the worst performance. Avg Actual: -6.7%; Real: -9.1%.
- All 5 Electronics stores were down vs 2022 but 3 were up vs 2019. They continue to close stores. However, strong deflation has pushed real sales significantly up so only Dell is “really” down vs 2019.
- Group avg growth, Actual: +9.2%; Real: +10.3%. Deflation in electronics was strong enough to impact the group.
Farm– Tractor Supply growth slowed from 11.4% to 3.4%. Avg Actual: +14.9%; Real: +8.6% (58%). Plus, more stores.
Hobby & Crafts– Hobby Lobby is by far the best performer. In fact, Michael’s sales are actually down vs 22. However, both continue to add stores. Avg Group Growth: 4.9%; Real: +4.7%. 96% is real.
Home Goods – Overstock acquired the rights to Bed, Bath & Beyond’s online sales. They entered the Top 100 and their big increase is the only reason the group is up vs 22. Vs 2019, only Amway is down. Store closures slowed in 23, -0.1%, but are -2.0% vs 19. Group Avg Actual growth: +5.9%; Real: +2.5% (42%).
Home Improvement/Hardware – Sales vs last year turned negative in 23. 4 of 7 were down but Home Depot and Lowes fueled the group drop. Store openings slowed in 23 but are still widespread.
- Sales vs 2019 is a different story. All but Menards (+8.4%) are up 21+%. Group store growth is also high, +5.8%.
- Avg Actual Growth: +7.8%; Real: +1.9% (Only 24% “Real” growth)
Jewelry – Signet sales plummeted, and they started closing stores again. Avg: 11.6%; Real: 8.0% (69%).
Mass Merchants have 3 of the 7 largest volume retailers in America – Wal-Mart, Costco and Target. However, the value and selection offered by the whole group has increased its importance to consumers due to the pandemic.
- In 2023 Wal-Mart $ were up 6.9%, below both the 8.7% in 2022 and their average increase in sales: +7.5%. Their business is driven by SuperCenters. Groceries drove up inflation so their real sales avg increase was 3.5%, only 47%. After a small increase last year, their store count is down vs 2022 and -0.6% from 2019.
- Costco’s 2023 $ increase was +6.8%, down radically from +16.9% in 2022 and 43% less than their 11.9% average. Average real growth was 7.8% (66%). They continue to open new stores and are now +8.3% vs 2019.
- Target – After 6 consecutive annual sales increases, sales fell -1.6% in 2023. Their growth peaked at +13.2% in 2021. Avg Growth: 8.2%; Real Growth: 4.2%, 51%. They opened a few more supercenters in 2023 and their store count is now up 4.7% from 2019. They also have added more fresh groceries to their discount stores.
- Meijer’s $ales were +3.7% from 22, down from 5.6% in 21>22 and below their avg of 5.5%. Their avg real growth is 1.7%, only 31%. They continue to open stores, +1.9% from 22 and +8.1% since 2019.
- BJ’s growth fell from +22.8% in 22 to +4.6% in 23. However, they are still the growth leader vs 2019, +62.5% in sales and +11.5% in stores. Avg growth: +12.9%; Real: +8.7%, 67%. We should note that Costco ranks 2^nd in both comparisons vs 2019 and Sam’s Club is a significant share of Wal-Mart’s total sales. Mass Merchants are the biggest category and Club stores have moved to the retail forefront.

Office Supply Stores – This channel continues its consistent decline as Consumers maintain their move to online ordering of these products. Office Depot dropped off of the list, leaving only Staples. All Staples comparisons are negative, and their Avg Growth is: -2.4%; Real: -8.7%. They also have -10.1% fewer stores than in 2019.
Pet Stores growth in 23 was +6.0%, down from +7.3% in 21>22 and a big drop from their 21 peak, +22.3%, but they are up +54.2% from 2019. Most of the growth in all measurements is coming from Chewy’s online sales.
- As you know Chewy and PetSmart numbers are reported individually as they are separate companies.
- With the strong consumer movement to online purchasing, Chewy is still the big story in this channel. They have the most sales. Their 22>23 increase was +10.4%, down from 13.6% in 22 and +24.4% in 21, but 74% of the Pet Store group’s 2023 $ increase. Their 81.6% sales increase vs 2019 is also double that of the retail outlets. Avg Growth rate: +16.1%; Real: +11.4%. 71% of their big increase is real.
- PetSmart’s 22>23 growth was only +2.0%, less than +2.2% in 21>22 and 93% below +23.1% in 20>21. Sales are still up +35.1% from 2019 and they continue to expand their retail footprint with 3.9% more stores than in 2019. Their average growth rate is +7.8%. Real growth is +3.5%, 45%. This is far below Chewy’s, but not too bad.
- Petco’s growth since 2019, +40.7% is slightly ahead of PetSmart. At +3.7%, it was slightly below +4.1% in 21>22 and down a lot from +17.6% in 20>21. Avg growth: +8.9%; Real: +4.5%, 51%. The biggest difference from PetSmart is that Petco has cut back on their retail stores, even in 2023. Their store count is now down -8.4% from 2019.
Small Format Value Stores – These stores offer value and convenience, but there are 2 types – Big Lots & $ Stores
- Group sales increased +3.3%, down from +7.4% in 22. Avg 19>23 Growth: +6.9%; Real: +2.9%, 42%.
- Dollar General & Dollar Tree were responsible for all of the group’s growth in both $ and stores. Vs 2019, Dollar General was the leader in both areas. Avg Growth: +8.7%; Real: +4.6%, 53%. Dollar Tree was the growth leader in 23 with +$2.3B, +8.3% vs 22. Their 19>23 Avg Growth was +6.7%; Real growth was +2.8%, 42%.
- Big Lots’ $ fell -13.6% from 22. All of their comparisons vs 22 & 19 are negative. Avg Growth: -2.9%; Real: -6.6%
Sporting Goods – Sales vs 22: -0.2%, peaked at +13.6% in 21. Camping World & Academy were down vs 22 but all are up vs 19. The group’s store count is down due to Dick’s and Camping World. Avg $ Growth: +9.1%; Real: +4.7%, 52%.
- Dick’s has the best $ performance vs 22 & 19, despite closing 1.9% of their stores. Avg: 10.2%; Real: 6.9%, 68%.
- Camping World & Academy were both down vs 22 but up 22+% vs 2019. Academy has opened 8.9% more stores
- Bass Pro has the worst performance. They closed 3.1% of their stores in 20&21. Avg Growth: +2.5%; Real: -1.9%.
Supermarkets – There was less turmoil than usual in this category – only minor rank changes, no drop outs and Save Mart returned to the list. Avg Growth: +6.3%; Real: 0.5%, only 8%. Store count +0.3% from 2019.
- All but Weis were up vs 2022 in $ and only Save-A-Lot and Southeastern were down vs 2019.
- Of 24 companies, only 5 cut back on stores in 2023 and 8 have fewer stores than in 2019.
- Sales continue to increase but you see a major impact of strong inflation – only 8% of the 19>23 growth is real.
- With $567B in sales from 17.5K stores, all carrying Pet Products, this group is essential both to the Retail Market and the Pet Industry.

Wrapping it up!

This report is focused on 2023 but we can also see the continued evolution of the Retail Marketplace. In 2020 many non-essential retailers were hit with restrictions and closures. On the plus side, consumers turned their focus to essentials and their homes. This helped drive incredible growth in many retail channels.

In 2021 the Total Retail market moved into a full recovery with spectacular growth. Many channels showed a strong sales rebound from 2020. Others built upon their pandemic success while many returned to a more normal growth pattern. However, a few continued to decline. The Top 100 companies had participants in all of these patterns.

In 2022 we were hit by strong inflation in many categories which slowed both actual and real growth. Inflation slowed in 23 but we still see its cumulative impact in the reduced annual increases. Plus, sales of 33 Top 100 retailers actually fell vs 2022.

The Top 100 is a contest with the winners changing slightly every year. It is a critical part of the U.S. Market, accounting for almost 60% of Relevant Retail Revenue and 35+% of Total Retail. Sales have increased annually but the Top 100’s share of Total Retail peaked in 2020 and in 2019 for Relevant Retail and has steadily declined. The Top 10 has had stronger annual growth but sales in the #11>100 group actually fell in 2020 and their 19>23 increase is only 40% of the Top 10’s lift. However, we should remember that we found a new hero in 2021 – Relevant Retail, not in the Top 100. The 19>23 Sales by these smaller guys are +51.5%, 42% more than the Top 10. Their performance continues to be amazing.

Pet Products are an important part of the success of the Top 100. 87 companies (96.6% of $) sell Pet items in 165K stores and/or online. The 72 companies that stock pet products in their stores generated $2.65T in total sales. How much was from pet? Let’s “Do the math”. If we take out the $14B done by Top 100 Pet stores and the remaining companies generated only 1.7% of their sales from Pet, we’re looking at $45B in Pet Products sales from 70 non-pet sources! (The 1.7% Pet share is based on the Economic Census.) If you add Pet Stores & Chewy into the $, Pet Products sales for the Top 100 are $68.4B. The APPA reported $96.4B in Pet Products sales for 23. That means 70 mass market retailers accounted for 46.7% of all the Pet Products sold in the U.S. and 73 Top 100 companies generated 71.0%. Pet Products are widespread in the retail market but the $ are concentrated. Pet Industry participants should monitor the Top 100.

Retail sales increases slowed in 2023 as cumulative inflation became a major factor. The situation is still evolving but the Top 100 will always be a critical part of U.S. Retail. I hope that this detailed look helped put this group into a better perspective.

Retail Channel $ Update – June Monthly & July Advance

August 26, 2024/in Pet Market Distribution Channels/by John Gibbons

In July, Commodities deflation vs last year remained stable at -0.4%. Although still deflating, the high prices from cumulative inflation still impact consumer spending. The YOY Total Retail sales lift for July is 87% of the 92>23 average but the Relevant Retail increase is now 111% – Much Better!. Prices are now deflating in many channels but still high vs 21, which can slow growth in the amount of product sold. There is still a long road to recovery, so we’ll continue to track the retail market with data from 2 reports provided by the Census Bureau and factor in a targeted CPI.

We will begin with the June Monthly Report and then go to the July Advance Report. Our focus is comparing to last year but also 2021 & 2019. We’ll show both actual and the “real” change in sales as we factor inflation into the data.

Both reports include the following:

Total Retail, Restaurants, Auto, Gas Stations and Relevant Retail (removing Restaurants, Auto and Gas)
Individual Channel Data – This is more detailed in the Monthly reports, and we’ll focus on Pet Relevant Channels.

Current Month change – % & $! vs previous month
Current Month change – % & $ vs same month last year and vs 2021.
- Current Month Real change vs last year and vs 2021 – % factoring in inflation
Current Ytd change – % & $ for this year vs last year, 2021 & 2019.
- Current Ytd Real change % for this year vs last year and vs 2021 and 2019
Monthly & Ytd $ & CPIs for this year vs last year and vs 2021 which are targeted by channel will also be shown. (CPI Details are at the end of the report)

First, the June Monthly. All were down from May and there were 5 actual sales drops vs 23 & 21. We should again note that Gas Stations are still selling less product than in 2019. Also, Relevant Retail is “really” down again monthly vs 21. They have been all positive in 5 of the last 8 months but not in 3 of the last 4. ($ are Not Seasonally Adjusted)

The June Monthly is $1.8B less than the Advance report. Restaurants: -$0.6B; Auto: -$1.6B; Gas Stations: +$0.5B; Relevant Retail: -$0.2B. As expected, $ales were down vs May for all. The -5.7% decrease was the biggest May>Jun drop ever. There were 5 drops in actual sales. Auto & Gas Stations had 4 & drove down Total Retail vs June 23. Auto had 2 drops despite ongoing deflation. Total: vs June 23; Auto: vs June 23 & 21; Gas Stations: vs June 23 & Ytd vs 23. There were 9 “real” sales drops, up from 5 last month and all groups had at least one. Restaurants still have the biggest increases vs 21 & 19 but Relevant Retail stayed at the top of “real” performance vs 2019. However, only 51% of their growth is real.

Now, let’s see how some Key Pet Relevant channels did in June in the Stacked Bar Graph Format

Overall– Only 2 of 11 were up from May. vs June 23, 6 were actually and 7 “really” up. Vs June 21, 7 were up but only 4 were real increases. Vs 2019, Off/Gift/Souv were actually & really down and Disc Dept Strs were also really down.

Building Material Stores – The pandemic focus on home has produced sales growth of 30.5% since 2019. Prices for the Bldg/Matl group have inflated 16.3% since 2021 which is having an impact. HomeCtr/Hdwe are only actually up Ytd vs 21 & 19 but Farm stores are only actually up Ytd vs 19. Only “real” measurements Ytd vs 23 & 19 are positive for Home/Hdwe. For Farm Stores all “real” numbers but vs 19 are negative. Plus, only 22% of the overall Building Materials group’s 19>24 lift was real. Avg 19>24 Growth: HomeCtr/Hdwe: 5.2%, Real: 1.1%; Farm: 6.5%, Real: 2.3%
Food & Drug – Both are truly essential. Except for the pandemic food binge buying, they tend to have smaller changes in $. In terms of inflation, the Grocery rate is only 35% of the rate for Drug/Med products. Drug Stores are only actually down vs June 23 but they are “really” down monthly & Ytd vs 2023 and vs June 21. 62% of their 2019>24 growth is real. Supermarkets $ are up in all measurements and they are only “really” down vs 2021. However, only 6% of their 19>24 increase is real growth. Avg 19>24 Growth: Supermarkets: +5.1%, Real: +0.3%; Drug Stores: +4.6%, Real: +3.0%.
Sporting Goods Stores – They also benefited from the pandemic in that consumers turned to self-entertainment, especially sports & outdoor activities. Sales are up from May, but their only positives are actual & real Ytd vs 19. Prices are still deflating, -0.8% vs 23. Deflation started in April 23 and is a big change from +1.1% in 22>23 and +7.9% in 21>22. The result is that 58% of their 36.8% lift since 19 is real. Avg 19>24 Growth Rate is: +6.5%; Real: +4.0%.
Gen Mdse Stores – All actual & real sales were up for Club/SupCtrs & $ stores. On the other hand, Discount Dept Stores were only actually up vs June 23 and Ytd vs 21 & 19 and really up vs June 2023. Plus, none of their growth since 2019 is real. The other channels average 44% in real growth. Avg 19>24 Growth: SupCtr/Club: 6.0%, Real: 2.8%; $/Value Strs: +6.4%, Real: +3.2%; Disc. Dept. Strs: +1.7%, Real: -0.3%.
Office, Gift & Souvenir Stores – Sales were up 8.4% from May, but it was not enough. They are actually up vs June 23 & 21 and Ytd vs 21. All of their real sales numbers but vs June 23 are negative. This includes all negatives vs 2019. Their recovery started late, and their slow progress has been stalled since June 23. Avg Growth Rate: -0.3%, Real: -2.3%
Internet/Mail Order – Sales are down from May but still set a new monthly record of $106.0B. All measurements are positive, but their growth is still only 69% of their average since 2019. However, 82.0% of their 113.9% growth since 2019 is real. Avg Growth: +16.4%, Real: +14.1%. As expected, they are still by far the growth leaders since 2019.
A/O Miscellaneous – Pet Stores are 22>24% of total $. In May 2020 they began their recovery which reached a record level of $100B for the first time in 2021. In 2022 their sales dipped in January, July, Sept>Nov, rose in December, fell in Jan>Feb 23, grew Mar>May, fell in Jun>Aug, rose in Sep>Nov, fell in Dec>Jan, grew in Feb>May, then fell in June. All measurements but actual vs June 23 are positive. They are still in 2^nd place, behind the Internet, in the % increase vs 19 and vs 21. Also, 73% of their 56.6% growth since 2019 is real. Average 19>24 Growth: +9.4%, Real: +7.2%.

June brought its usual drop. Only 2 small channels were up vs May. The YOY lifts continue to be small and only 6 of 11 smaller channels and 3 big groups were up vs June 23. Prices are deflating in 7 of 11 channels but cumulative inflation is still a factor. Sales increases are lower as 7 of 11 channels were really down vs June 21. The Retail Recovery is definitely slowing. The commodities CPI was stable at -0.4% in July. Let’s see if continuing deflation impacts Retail $ales.

July sales vs June increased for all but Restaurants. A Jun>Jul Total Retail lift has happened in 56% of the years since 1992. However, the 3.2% lift is far above the average change of 0.1%. All actual YOY $ measurements are positive for all groups but Gas Stations. The Relative Retail lift vs Jul 23 was 11% above their 92>23 Average. The lifts for the other groups were 20+% below avg. Inflation is still a big factor. The rate for all commodities, the best pricing measure for Retail, remained stable at -0.4% but is 11.1% vs 21. There is some “real” retail good news. In June, 8 measurements were “really” down vs 23 & 21. All groups had at least 1 drop. In July, only 4 were really down. Total & Relevant Retail were all positive. Also of note, from Nov 23>Feb 24 Relevant Retail had 4 straight months of all positive measurements. After 2 months with a negative, they have been all positive in 2 of the last 3 months. Total Retail has the same Apr>Jul pattern.

Overall – Inflation Reality – For Total Retail, prices deflated again and all measurements turned positive. For Restaurants, inflation remains high, +4.0% and they are no longer all positive. Gas prices rose and that group is still in turmoil. Auto prices are still falling and are only +2.5% vs 21 which helped actual & real sales. Inflation stabilized at +0.1% for Relevant Retail and sales are again all positive. Their progress appears to have restarted.

Total Retail – Since June 20, every month but April 23 & June 24 has set a monthly sales record. In 2023, Sales were on a roller coaster. Up Jul>Aug, down Sept, up Oct>Dec, down Jan 24, up Feb>Mar, down April, up May, down June, up in July. Prices are still -0.4%. YOY sales growth is up to 85% of the 92>23 avg. Sales are up 2.9% Ytd vs 2023, only 43% of their avg 19>24 growth. Plus, only 39% of the 19>24 growth is real. YOY inflation in Total Retail has slowed and is still deflating but we still see its cumulative impact. Growth: 23>24: 2.9%; Avg 19>24: +6.8%, Real: +2.8%.

Restaurants – They were hit hard by the pandemic and didn’t begin recovery until March 2021. However, they have had strong growth since then, exceeding $1T for the 1^st time in 2023 and even setting a new July sales record, despite the -0.5% $ drop. They have the biggest Ytd increases vs 23, 21 & 19 but sales vs July 23 are now really down. Inflation rose to 4.0% in July and is still +19.6% vs 21 and +20.5% vs 19. 36.7% of their 49.8% growth since 19 is real and they remain 3^rd in performance behind Relevant & Total. Recovery started late but inflation started early. Growth: 5.3%; Avg 19>24:+8.4%, Real: +3.4%. They just account for 13.6% of Total Retail $, but their performance has helped Total Retail.

Auto (Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers) – They actively worked to overcome the stay-at-home attitude with great deals and a lot of advertising. They finished 2020 up 1% vs 2019 and hit a record $1.48T in 2021 but much of it was due to skyrocketing inflation. In 22, sales got on a rollercoaster. Inflation started to drop mid-year, but it caused 4 down months in actual sales which are the only reported sales negatives by any big group in 21>22. This is bad but their Y/E real 2022 sales numbers were much worse, down -8.2% vs 2021 and -8.9% vs 2019. 2023 was a true rollercoaster but the $ set a new record, $1.595T. $ fell in Jan 24, grew Feb>Mar, fell in Apr, grew in May, fell in June, grew in July. Only Real Ytd $ vs 21 are negative. Their CPI is -4.5%. Only 18.2% of 19>24 growth is real. Growth: 1.4%; Avg 19>24: +5.5%, Real: +1.1%.

Gas Stations – Gas Stations were hit hard by “stay at home”. They started recovery in March 2021 and inflation began. Sales got on a rollercoaster in 2022 but reached a record $583B. Inflation started to slow in August and prices slightly deflated in Dec & Feb 23, then strongly fell in Mar>Jul to -20.2%. In August they rose to -3.7%. In Sep they were +2.7% but began deflating to -4.2% in Feb. In Mar>May they grew, fell in June, rose in July. $ are only down Ytd vs 23. Real sales are down vs July 21 and Ytd vs 21 and 19. Growth: -0.6%; Avg 19>24: +4.5%, Real: -1.0%. They show the cumulative impact of inflation and demonstrate how deflation can be both a positive and a negative.

Relevant Retail – Less Auto, Gas and Restaurants – They account for ≈60% of Total Retail $ in a variety of channels, so they took many different paths through the pandemic. However, their only down month was April 2020, and they led the way in Total Retail’s recovery. Sales got on a roller coaster in 2022 but all months set new records with December reaching a new all-time high, $481B, and an annual record of $4.81T. In 2023, the roller coaster continued. A December lift set a new monthly record of $494.7B & an annual record of $4.997T. Sales fell in Jan>Feb 24, rose in Mar, fell in Apr, rose in May, fell in June, then rose in July, a normal pattern. The July YOY lift of 5.2% is 11% above their 92>23 avg and and all measurement are again positive. Also, 51% of their 41.4% 19>24 growth is real – #1 in performance. Growth: 3.4%; Avg 19>24: +7.2%, Real: +3.9%.This is where America shops. They finished 2023 and started up 2024 strong. In Mar>Apr their recovery slowed. In May, things improved, worsened in June, then rebounded in July.

Inflation is still low, but the cumulative impact is still there. However, some Sales increases are improving, which is very evident in July for Relevant Retail. It is also significant that there are only 4 real drops vs 23 & 21, down from 8 in June. Restaurants are a little worse off, but the Auto group is improving. Gas Stations remain in turmoil. The biggest concern is still with Relevant Retail. Their YOY Sales increase is much higher, and all measurements are positive for the 2^nd time in the last 3 months. Total Retail has a similar pattern. After a bad June, the recovery appears to be getting “back on track”.

Here’s a more detailed look at July by Key Channels in the Stacked Bar Graph Format

Relevant Retail: Growth: +3.4%; Avg: +7.2%, Real: +3.9%. 7 were up from June. Vs Jul 23: 8 were up, Real: 9, Vs Jul 21: 6 were up, Real: 6. Vs 19: Only Dept Stores were actually & really down. Furnishing strs. were also really down.
All Dept Stores – This group was struggling before the pandemic hit them hard. They began recovery in March 2020. Sales are down 1.1% from June. Their actual $ are only up Ytd vs 21. Their real numbers are all negative. They are even actually & really down vs 2019. Growth: -1.5%;Avg 19>24: -0.2%, Real: -2.2%.
Club/SuprCtr/$- They fueled a big part of the recovery because they focus on value which has broad consumer appeal. $ales are -1.3% from June, but they are positive in all measurements. However, only 44.4% of their 34.2% 19>24 lift is real – inflation’s impact. Ytd growth is below Avg for the 4th straight month. Growth: 3.6%; Avg: +6.1%, Real: +2.9%.
Grocery- These stores depend on frequent purchases, so except for the binge buying in 2020, their changes are usually less radical. Actual $ are +3.0% from June and positive in other comparisons. However, cumulative inflation has hit them hard. Real $ are only up vs 23 & 19 and only 6% of 19>24 growth is real. Growth: 1.8%; Avg 19>24: +5.2%, Real: +0.3%.
Health/Drug Stores – Many stores are essential, but consumers visit less frequently than Grocery stores. $ are +3.3% from June. They are up in all actual comparisons and only really down Ytd vs 23. Because inflation has been relatively low, 62% of their 26.1% growth from 2019 is real. Growth: 2.4%; Avg 19>24: +4.7%, Real: +3.0%
Clothing and Accessories – Clothes initially mattered less when you stayed home. That changed in March 21 with strong growth through 2022. Sales are up 0.8% from June and positive in all comparisons but real vs Jul and Ytd 21. Plus, 63% of their 19>24 growth is real. Growth: 2.6%; Avg 19>24: +3.3%, Real:+2.1%
Home Furnishings – In mid-2020 consumers’ focus turned to their homes and furniture became a priority. Prices are still deflating but they were high in 2022. Sales are +3.2% from June but negative in all other measurements but actual $ vs 19 and real $ vs Jul 23. They have sold less product in 2024 than 2019. Growth: -3.1%;Avg 19>24: +2.3%, Real: -0.3%
Electronic & Appliances – This channel has had many issues. Sales fell in Apr>May of 2020 and didn’t reach 2019 levels until March 21. $ are +6.1% from June but all comparisons are positive but actual sales vs July & Ytd 21. We should also note that their current Ytd growth is now above their 19>24 avg. Growth: +1.7%; Avg 19>24: +0.9%, Real: +3.8%.
Building Material, Farm & Garden & Hardware –They truly benefited from the consumers’ focus on home. In 2022 the lift slowed as inflation grew to double digits. Prices are still deflating and sales are +0.7% from June. Actual sales are only down Ytd vs 23. Prices are deflating but they are still 16.7% above 21 so real sales vs July & Ytd 21 are negative. Also, just 22% of their 19>24 sales growth is real. Growth: -2.3%; Avg 19>24: +5.5%, Real: +1.3%.
Sporting Goods, Hobby and Book Stores – Consumers turned their attention to recreation and Sporting Goods stores sales took off. Book & Hobby Stores recovered more slowly. After a big June lift sales fell -1.5% in July. All comparisons, actual & real, but Ytd vs 2019 are negative. Their inflation rate has been lower than most groups so 71% of their 25.6% growth since 2019 is real. Growth: -3.5%; Avg 19>24: +4.7%, Real: +3.4%.
All Miscellaneous Stores – Pet Stores have been a key part of the strong and growing recovery of this group. They finished 2020 at +0.9% but sales took off in March 21 and have continued to grow. Sales are -4.1% vs June but positive in all measurements vs 23, 21 & 19. They are still 2^nd to NonStore in the % increase vs 19 and vs 21. 67.3% of their 41.0% 19>24 growth is real but their current Ytd lift is still 24% below Avg. Growth: +5.4%; Avg 19>24: +7.1%, Real: 5.0%.
NonStore Retailers – 90% of their $ comes from Internet/Mail Order/TV. The pandemic accelerated online spending. They ended 2020 +21.4%. The growth continued in 2021 as sales exceeded $100B for the 1^st time and they broke the $1 Trillion barrier. $ are +8.7% from June. Their YOY lift jumped to +11.8% in July but Ytd they are 41% below Avg. They are positive in all measurements and 81% of their 101% 19>24 growth is real. Growth: 8.8%; Avg: +15.0%, Real: +12.7%.

Note: Almost without exception, online sales by brick ‘n mortar retailers are recorded with their regular store sales.

Recap – The Retail recovery from the pandemic was largely driven by Relevant Retail and by the end of 2021 it had become very widespread. In 2022, there was a new challenge, the worst inflation in 40 years. Overall, inflation has slowed considerably from its June 22 peak and now 7 channels are deflating. This should help the Retail Situation. Sales grew from June. The 3.1% lift for Relevant Retail was remarkably better than their -0.4% 92>23 avg. This was a big improvement. However, the big problem has been slowing YOY monthly increases. That may have also started to change in July. The 5.2% Relevant Retail lift vs Jul 23 was 11% above their 92>23 average increase of 4.7% and only 3 of 11 channels had a decrease. In June there were 5 YOY monthly drops. Electronics (+13.2%) led the way among the 8 with lifts but there were 4 with increases of 6.5+%. One channel even had a Ytd lift above their 19>24 Avg – the first time that this has happened in 4 months. There is more good news. Relevant Retail is again positive in all comparisons. That’s now happened in 2 of the last 3 months. The recovery definitely slowed in June, but it has strongly restarted in July.

Monthly YOY CPI changes of 0.2% or more are highlighted. (Green = lower; Pink = higher)

I’m sure that this list raises some questions. Here are some answers to some of the more obvious ones.

Why is the group for Non-store different from the Internet?
- Non-store is not all internet. It also includes Fuel Oil Dealers, the non-motor fuel Energy Commodity.
Why is there no Food at home included in Non-store or Internet?
- Online Grocery purchasing is becoming popular but almost all is from companies whose major business is brick ‘n mortar. These online sales are recorded under their primary channel.
6 Channels have the same CPI aggregate but represent a variety of business types.
- They also have a wide range of product types. Rather than try to build aggregates of a multitude of small expenditure categories, it seemed better to eliminate the biggest, influential groups that they don’t sell. This method is not perfect, but it is certainly closer than any existing aggregate.
Why are Grocery and Supermarkets only tied to the Grocery CPI?
- According to the Economic Census, 76% of their sales comes from Grocery products. Grocery Products are the driver. The balance of their sales comes from a collection of a multitude of categories.
What about Drug/Health Stores only being tied to Medical Commodities.
- An answer similar to the one for Grocery/Supermarkets. However, in this case Medical Commodities account for over 80% of these stores’ total sales.
Why do SuperCtrs/Clubs and $ Stores have the same CPI?
- While the Big Stores sell much more fresh groceries, Groceries account for ¼ of $ Store sales. Both Channels generally offer most of the same product categories, but the actual product mix is different.

Retail Channel $ Update – May Monthly & June Advance

July 22, 2024/in Pet Market Distribution Channels/by John Gibbons

In June, Commodities prices vs last year fell to -0.4%, down from 0.1% in May. Although deflating for the 1^st time since July 2020, cumulative inflation still impacts consumer spending. The YOY Total Retail sales lift for June is only 4% of the 92>23 average and the Relevant Retail increase is 28%. Prices are now deflating in many channels but still high vs 21, which slows growth in the amount of product sold. There is still a long road to recovery, so we’ll continue to track the retail market with data from 2 reports provided by the Census Bureau and factor in a targeted CPI from US BLS data.

We will begin with the May Monthly Report and then go to the June Advance Report. Our focus is comparing to last year but also 2021 & 2019. We’ll show both actual and the “real” change in sales as we factor inflation into the data.

Both reports include the following:

Total Retail, Restaurants, Auto, Gas Stations and Relevant Retail (removing Restaurants, Auto and Gas)
Individual Channel Data – This is more detailed in the Monthly reports, and we’ll focus on Pet Relevant Channels.

Current Month change – % & $ vs previous month
Current Month change – % & $ vs same month last year and vs 2021.
- Current Month Real change vs last year and vs 2021 – % factoring in inflation
Current Ytd change – % & $ for this year vs last year, 2021 & 2019.
- Current Ytd Real change % for this year vs last year and vs 2021 and 2019
Monthly & Ytd $ & CPIs for this year vs last year and vs 2021 which are targeted by channel will also be shown. (CPI Details are at the end of the report)

First, the May Monthly. All were up from April. Gas Stations were down Ytd vs 23. All other actual $ are up. We should note that Gas Stations are still selling less product than in 2019. Also, Relevant Retail is “really” up again monthly vs 21. They have now been all positive in 5 of the last 6 months. ($ are Not Seasonally Adjusted)

The May Monthly is $2.3B more than the Advance report. Restaurants: +$1.4B; Auto: -$0.2B; Gas Stations: +$0.1B; Relevant Retail: +$0.9B. As expected, $ales were up vs April for all. Actual sales for all but Gas Stations were positive in all YOY monthly & Ytd measurements. Gas prices increased and sales were up for the month but down Ytd vs 23. Auto prices are still deflating, and sales increased across the board. There were 5 “real” sales drops, down from 7 last month but all were in Auto or Gas Stations. Restaurants still have the biggest increases vs 21 & 19 but Relevant Retail stayed at the top of “real” performance vs 2019. However, only 52% of their growth is real.

Now, let’s see how some Key Pet Relevant channels did in May in the Stacked Bar Graph Format

Overall– All 11 were up from April. vs May 23, 5 were actually and 7 “really” up. Vs May 21, 9 were up but only 5 were real increases. Vs 2019, Off/Gift/Souv were actually & really down and Disc Dept Strs were also really down.

Building Material Stores – The pandemic focus on home has produced sales growth of 30.5% since 2019. Prices for the Bldg/Matl group have inflated 16.8% since 2021 which is having an impact. HomeCtr/Hdwe are only actually up monthly and Ytd vs 21 & 19 but Farm stores are only actually up vs May 21 & 19. All “real” measurements vs 21 are negative for Home/Hdwe. However, all “real” numbers but vs 19 are negative for Farm Strs. Plus, only 22% of the overall Building Materials group’s 19>24 lift was real. Avg 19>24 Growth: HomeCtr/Hdwe: 5.2%, Real: 1.1%; Farm: 6.5%, Real: 2.3%.
Food & Drug – Both are truly essential. Except for the pandemic food binge buying, they tend to have smaller changes in $. In terms of inflation, the Grocery rate is less than one-third of the rate for Drug/Med products. Drug Stores are only actually down vs May 23 but they are also “really” down monthly & Ytd vs 2023. 64% of their 2019>24 growth is real. Supermarkets $ are up in all measurements and they are only “really” down vs 2021. However, only 7% of their 19>24 increase is real growth. Avg 19>24 Growth: Supermarkets: +5.2%, Real: +0.4%; Drug Stores: +4.5%, Real: +2.9%.
Sporting Goods Stores – They also benefited from the pandemic in that consumers turned to self-entertainment, especially sports & outdoor activities. Sales are up from April but their only positives are actual & real Ytd vs 19. Prices are still deflating, -0.3% vs 23. Deflation started in April 23 and is a big change from +1.1% in 22>23 and +7.9% in 21>22. The result is that 59% of their 38.1% lift since 19 is real. Avg 19>24 Growth Rate is: +6.7%; Real: +4.1%.
Gen Mdse Stores – All actual & real sales were up for Club/SupCtrs & $ stores. On the other hand, Discount Dept Stores were only actually up Ytd vs 21 & 19 and really up vs May 2023. Plus, none of their growth since 2019 is real. The other channels average 48% in real growth. Avg 19>24 Growth: SupCtr/Club: 6.0%, Real: 2.8%; $/Value Strs: +6.5%, Real: +3.3%; Disc. Dept. Strs: +1.7%, Real: -0.3%.
Office, Gift & Souvenir Stores – Sales were up 13.9% from April, but it was not enough. They are negative in all actual comparisons but vs 2021 and their real sales numbers are all negative. This includes all negatives vs 2019. Their recovery started late, and their slow progress has been stalled since June 23. Avg Growth Rate: -0.9%, Real: -2.9%
Internet/Mail Order – $ are only up 4.0% from April but still set a new monthly record of $112.9B. All measurements are positive, but their growth is still only 64.5% of their average since 2019. However, 82.1% of their 115.5% growth since 2019 is real. Avg Growth: +16.6%, Real: +14.3%. As expected, they are still by far the growth leaders since 2019.
A/O Miscellaneous – Pet Stores are 22>24% of total $. In May 2020 they began their recovery which reached a record level of $100B for the first time in 2021. In 2022 their sales dipped in January, July, Sept>Nov, rose in December, fell in Jan>Feb 23, grew Mar>May, fell in Jun>Aug, rose in Sep>Nov, fell in Dec>Jan, then grew in Feb>May. All measurements vs 23, 21 & 19 are positive. They are still in 2^nd place, behind the Internet, in the % increase vs 19 and vs 21. Also, 74% of their 58.5% growth since 2019 is real. Average 19>24 Growth: +9.7%, Real: +7.5%.

May brought its usual lift. All channels – big and small were up vs April. The YOY lifts continue to be small as only 5 of 11 smaller channels were actually up vs May 23. Prices are now deflating in 9 of 11 channels but cumulative inflation is still a factor. Sales increases are lower as 6 of 11 channels were really down vs May 21. The Retail Recovery is definitely slowing. The commodities CPI dropped from 0.1% in May to -0.4% in June. Let’s look for any impact on Retail $ales.

June sales vs May decreased for all, not surprising. A May>Jun Total Retail drop has happened in all but 4 years since 1992. However, the -5.6% drop tied 2014 for the biggest ever. All actual $ measurements are positive for all groups but Auto & Gas Stations. The 3 lifts vs Jun 23 were far below their 92>23 Average. Total: -96%; Relevant Rtl: -72%; Restaurants: -33%. Inflation is still a big factor. The rate for all commodities, the best pricing measure for Retail, fell from 0.1% to -0.4% but is 11.9% vs 21. There is also more “real” retail bad news. In May, 4 measurements were “really” down vs 23 & 21 and all came from Auto & Gas Stations. In June, 6 were really down – Total & Relevant Retail each added 1 – vs Jun 2021. Also of note, from Nov 23>Feb 24 Relevant Retail had 4 straight months of all positive measurements. That pattern has now been broken in 2 of the last 3 months. BTW – Total Retail has the same Apr>Jun pattern.

Overall – Inflation Reality – For Total Retail, prices deflated but all measurements are no longer positive. For Restaurants, inflation remains high, +3.9% but they are still all positive. Gas prices fell and that group is still in turmoil. Auto prices are down but are still +4.1% vs 21 which continues to slow actual & real sales. Prices flipped from slight deflation to +0.1% for Relevant Retail and real sales vs Jun 21 turned negative. Their progress continues to slow.

Total Retail – Since June 20, every month but April 23 has set a monthly sales record. In 2023, Sales were on a roller coaster. Up Jul>Aug, down Sept, up Oct>Dec, down Jan 24, up Feb>Mar, down April, up in May, down in Jun. Prices are now -0.4%. YOY sales growth is only 4% of the 92>23 avg. Sales are up 2.8% Ytd vs 2023, only 41% of their avg 19>24 growth. Monthly Real sales vs 21 turned negative and only 39% of the 19>24 growth is real. YOY inflation in Total Retail slowed and is now deflating but we still see its cumulative impact. Growth: 23>24: 2.8%; Avg 19>24: +6.8%, Real: +2.9%.

Restaurants – They were hit hard by the pandemic and didn’t begin recovery until March 2021. However, they have had strong growth since then, exceeding $1T for the 1^st time in 2023 and even setting a new June sales record, despite the -3.3% $ drop. They have the biggest Ytd increases vs 23, 21 & 19 and all real sales are positive. Inflation stayed at 3.9% in June but is still +20.2% vs 21 and +26.4% vs 19. 37.9% of their 50.7% growth since 19 is real and they remain 3^rd in performance behind Relevant & Total. Recovery started late but inflation started early. Growth: 6.0%; Avg 19>24:+8.5%, Real: +3.6%. They just account for 13.7% of Total Retail $, but their performance improves the overall retail numbers.

Auto (Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers) – They actively worked to overcome the stay-at-home attitude with great deals and a lot of advertising. They finished 2020 up 1% vs 2019 and hit a record $1.48T in 2021 but much of it was due to skyrocketing inflation. In 22, sales got on a rollercoaster. Inflation started to drop mid-year, but it caused 4 down months in actual sales which are the only reported sales negatives by any big group in 21>22. This is bad but their Y/E real 2022 sales numbers were much worse, down -8.2% vs 2021 and -8.9% vs 2019. 2023 was a true rollercoaster but the $ set a new record, $1.595T. $ fell in Jan 24, grew Feb>Mar, fell in Apr, grew in May, fell in June. Actual & Real vs Jun 23 & real vs 21 are negative. Their CPI is -4.2%. Only 19.6% of 19>24 growth is real. Growth: 1.3%; Avg 19>24: +5.7%, Real: +1.2%.

Gas Stations – Gas Stations were hit hard by “stay at home”. They started recovery in March 2021 and inflation began. Sales got on a rollercoaster in 2022 but reached a record $583B. Inflation started to slow in August and prices slightly deflated in Dec & Feb 23, then strongly fell in Mar>Jul to -20.2%. In August they rose to -3.7%. In Sep they were +2.7% but began deflating to -4.2% in Feb. In Mar>May they grew then fell in June. $ are only down vs 23. Pricing is a factor in the $ drop vs 23 but real $ vs June 21 & Ytd vs 21 & 19 are also down. Growth: -0.9%; Avg 19>24: +4.6%, Real: -1.0%.They show the cumulative impact of inflation and demonstrate how deflation can be both a positive and a negative.

Relevant Retail – Less Auto, Gas and Restaurants – They account for ≈60% of Total Retail $ in a variety of channels, so they took many different paths through the pandemic. However, their only down month was April 2020, and they led the way in Total Retail’s recovery. Sales got on a roller coaster in 2022 but all months set new records with December reaching a new all-time high, $481B, and an annual record of $4.81T. In 2023, the roller coaster continued. A December lift set a new monthly record of $494.7B & an annual record of $4.997T. Sales fell in Jan>Feb 24 rose in Mar, fell in Apr, rose in May, then fell in June, a normal pattern. The June YOY lift of 1.3% is down 72% from their 92>23 avg and monthly Real vs 21 turned negative. All other measurements are positive. We should also note that 51% of their 41.4% 19>24 growth is real – #1 in performance. Growth: 3.1%; Avg 19>24: +7.2%, Real: +3.9%.This is where America shops. They finished 2023 and started up 2024 strong. In Mar>Apr their recovery slowed. In May, things improved but then worsened in June.

Inflation is still low, but the cumulative impact is still there. Sales increases are even smaller, which is very evident in June. It is also significant that there are now 6 real drops vs 23 & 21, up from 4 in May. Restaurants are still doing well, but the Auto group and Gas Stations remain in turmoil. Although not as visible, the biggest concern is still with Relevant Retail. Sales increases remain markedly lower and monthly real sales vs 21 turned negative for the 2^nd time in the last 3 months. Total Retail has a similar pattern. After a relatively strong May, the recovery appears to be markedly slowing.

Here’s a more detailed look at June by Key Channels in the Stacked Bar Graph Format

Relevant Retail: Growth: +3.1%;Avg: +7.2%, Real: +3.9%. Only 1 was up from May. Vs Jun 23: 6 were up, Real: 6. Vs Jun 21: 6 were up, Real: 4. Vs 19: Only Dept Stores were actually & really down. Furnishing strs. were also really down.
All Dept Stores – This group was struggling before the pandemic hit them hard. They began recovery in March 2020. Sales are down -4.6% from May. Their actual $ are only up vs Jun 23 & Ytd vs 21. Except vs Jun 23, their real numbers are all negative. They are even actually & really down vs 2019. Growth: -1.4%; Avg 19>24: -0.1%, Real: -2.1%.
Club/SuprCtr/$- They fueled a big part of the recovery because they focus on value which has broad consumer appeal. $ales are -1.8% from May, but they are positive in all measurements. However, only 44.5% of their 34.6% 19>24 lift is real – inflation’s impact. Ytd growth is below Avg for the 3rd straight month. Growth: 4.1%; Avg: +6.1%, Real: +2.9%.
Grocery- These stores depend on frequent purchases, so except for the binge buying in 2020, their changes are usually less radical. Actual $ are -3.9% from May but positive for other comparisons. However, cumulative inflation has hit them hard. Real $ are only up vs 23 & 19 and only 6% of 19>24 growth is real. Growth: 1.7%; Avg 19>24: +5.2%, Real: +0.4%.
Health/Drug Stores – Many stores are essential, but consumers visit less frequently than Grocery stores. $ are -3.4% from May. They are only actually, and really down vs Jun 23 and really down vs Jun 21 & Ytd 23. Because inflation has been relatively low, 62% of their 25.2% growth from 2019 is real. Growth: 1.4%; Avg 19>24: +4.6%, Real: +2.9%
Clothing and Accessories – Clothes initially mattered less when you stayed home. That changed in March 21 with strong growth through 2022. Sales are down -8.2% from May but positive in all comparisons but real vs Jun 21. Plus, 63% of their 19>24 growth is real. Growth: 2.9%; Avg 19>24: +3.3%, Real:+2.2%
Home Furnishings – In mid-2020 consumers’ focus turned to their homes and furniture became a priority. Prices are still deflating but they were high in 2022. Sales are -4.2% from May and negative in all other measurements but actual Ytd sales vs 2019. They have sold less product in 2024 than 2019. Growth: -7.0%; Avg 19>24: +2.4%, Real: -0.2%
Electronic & Appliances – This channel has had many issues. Sales fell in Apr>May of 2020 and didn’t reach 2019 levels until March 21. $ are -0.1% from May but all comparisons are again positive – the turnaround continues. We should also note that their current Ytd growth is about equal to their 19>24 avg. Growth: +0.76%; Avg 19>24: +0.84%, Real: +3.7%.
Building Material, Farm & Garden & Hardware –They truly benefited from the consumers’ focus on home. In 2022 the lift slowed as inflation grew to double digits. Prices are still deflating, but sales are -7.7% from May, and they are only positive Ytd vs 19. Prices may be deflating but are still 16.3% above 21 so real sales are all negative except Ytd vs 19. Also, just 22% of their 19>24 sales growth is real. Growth: -3.5%; Avg 19>24: +5.5%, Real: +1.3%.
Sporting Goods, Hobby and Book Stores – Consumers turned their attention to recreation and Sporting Goods stores sales took off. Book & Hobby Stores recovered more slowly. Actual sales are up +1.3% from May (the only May>Jun lift) but down for all but Ytd vs 2019. The only positive real sales measurement is Ytd vs 19. Their inflation rate has been lower than most groups so 71% of their 26.1% growth since 2019 is real. Growth: -3.2%; Avg 19>24: +4.7%, Real: +3.5%.
All Miscellaneous Stores – Pet Stores have been a key part of the strong and growing recovery of this group. They finished 2020 at +0.9% but sales took off in March 21 and have continued to grow. Sales are -7.3% vs May but positive in all measurements but vs Jun 23 – actual & real. They are still 2^nd to NonStore in the % increase vs 19 and vs 21. 67.5% of their 41.9% 19>24 growth is real but their current lift is still below Avg. Growth: +5.3%; Avg 19>24: +7.3%, Real: 5.1%.
NonStore Retailers – 90% of their $ comes from Internet/Mail Order/TV. The pandemic accelerated online spending. They ended 2020 +21.4%. The growth continued in 2021 as sales exceeded $100B for the 1^st time and they broke the $1 Trillion barrier. $ are -6.6% from May. Their YOY lift slowed to +4.8% in June and Ytd they are 43% below Avg. They are positive in all measurements and 81% of their 101% 19>24 growth is real. Growth: 8.5%; Avg: +15.0%, Real: +12.7%.

Note: Almost without exception, online sales by brick ‘n mortar retailers are recorded with their regular store sales.

Recap – The Retail recovery from the pandemic was largely driven by Relevant Retail and by the end of 2021 it had become very widespread. In 2022, there was a new challenge, the worst inflation in 40 years. Overall, inflation has slowed considerably from its June 22 peak and in June, 7 channels are deflating. This should help the Retail Situation. As expected, Sales fell from May. The 5.2% drop for Relevant Retail was 79% worse than their -2.9% avg but the big problem is with slowing YOY monthly increases. The 1.3% Relevant Retail lift vs Jun 23 was 72% below their 92>23 average 4.7% increase and 5 of 11 channels actually had a decrease. Nonstore led the way among the 6 with increases with +5.5%, no surprise. Inflation is low and even deflating in many channels. However, we are still seeing the impact of high cumulative inflation. Only a few channels are doing well. The slowing of the YOY sales increase has become the biggest problem. In April>Jun no channels had a Ytd lift above their 19>24 Avg. There is more bad news. Relevant Retail is again no longer positive in all comparisons vs 23, 21 & 19. That’s happened in 2 of the last 3 months. The recovery has definitely slowed.

Monthly YOY CPI changes of 0.2% or more are highlighted. (Green = lower; Pink = higher)

I’m sure that this list raises some questions. Here are some answers to some of the more obvious ones.

Why is the group for Non-store different from the Internet?
1. Non-store is not all internet. It also includes Fuel Oil Dealers, the non-motor fuel Energy Commodity.
Why is there no Food at home included in Non-store or Internet?
1. Online Grocery purchasing is becoming popular but almost all is from companies whose major business is brick ‘n mortar. These online sales are recorded under their primary channel.
6 Channels have the same CPI aggregate but represent a variety of business types.
1. They also have a wide range of product types. Rather than try to build aggregates of a multitude of small expenditure categories, it seemed better to eliminate the biggest, influential groups that they don’t sell. This method is not perfect, but it is certainly closer than any existing aggregate.
Why are Grocery and Supermarkets only tied to the Grocery CPI?
1. According to the Economic Census, 76% of their sales comes from Grocery products. Grocery Products are the driver. The balance of their sales comes from a collection of a multitude of categories.
What about Drug/Health Stores only being tied to Medical Commodities.
1. An answer similar to the one for Grocery/Supermarkets. However, in this case Medical Commodities account for over 80% of these stores’ total sales.
Why do SuperCtrs/Clubs and $ Stores have the same CPI?
1. While the Big Stores sell much more fresh groceries, Groceries account for ¼ of $ Store sales. Both Channels generally offer most of the same product categories, but the actual product mix is different.

Retail Channel $ Update – April Monthly & May Advance

June 24, 2024/in Pet Market Distribution Channels/by John Gibbons

In May, Commodities inflation vs last year slowed to 0.1% from 0.3% in April. Although radically down from its peak, cumulative inflation still impacts consumer spending. The YOY sales increase for May is 40+ below the 92>23 average for Relevant Retail and for all big channels but Restaurants. Prices are now deflating in many channels but still high vs 21, which slows growth in the amount of product sold. There is still a long road to recovery, so we’ll continue to track the retail market with data from 2 reports provided by the Census Bureau and factor in a targeted CPI from US BLS data.

We will begin with the April Monthly Report and then go to the May Advance Report. Our focus is comparing to last year but also 2021 & 2019. We’ll show both actual and the “real” change in sales as we factor inflation into the data.

Both reports include the following:

Total Retail, Restaurants, Auto, Gas Stations and Relevant Retail (removing Restaurants, Auto and Gas)
Individual Channel Data – This is more detailed in the Monthly reports, and we’ll focus on Pet Relevant Channels.

Current Month change – % & $ vs previous month
Current Month change – % & $ vs same month last year and vs 2021.
- Current Month Real change vs last year and vs 2021 – % factoring in inflation
Current Ytd change – % & $ for this year vs last year, 2021 & 2019.
- Current Ytd Real change % for this year vs last year and vs 2021 and 2019
Monthly & Ytd $ & CPIs for this year vs last year and vs 2021 which are targeted by channel will also be shown. (CPI Details are at the end of the report)

First, the April Monthly. All but Gas Stations were down from March. Gas Stations were down Ytd vs 23 & Auto vs Apr 23. All other actual $ are up. We should note that Gas Stations are still selling less product than in 2019. Also, Relevant Retail is “really” down again monthly vs 21, after 4 straight months of all positives. ($ are Not Seasonally Adjusted)

The April Monthly is $1.4B less than the Advance report. Restaurants: +$0.6B; Auto: +$1.0B; Gas Stations: -$1.3B; Relevant Retail: -$1.8B. As expected, $ales were down vs March for all but Gas Stations. Actual sales for all but Auto & Gas Stations were positive in all YOY monthly & Ytd measurements. Gas prices turned up, but their sales were down Ytd vs 23. Auto prices are deflating but $ were down vs April 21. There were 7 “real” sales drops, down from 8 last month. Gas Stations had 3 but only Restaurants had none. Restaurants have the biggest increases vs 21 & 19 but Relevant Retail is still the top “real” performer vs 2019. However, only 52% of their growth is real.

Now, let’s see how some Key Pet Relevant channels did in April in the Stacked Bar Graph Format

Overall– Only 5 were up from March. vs Apr 23, Only 3 were actually and “really” up. Vs Apr 21, 6 were up but only 3 were real increases. Vs 2019, Off/Gift/Souv were actually & really down and Disc Dept Strs were also really down.

Building Material Stores – The pandemic focus on home has produced sales growth of 30.3% since 2019. Prices for the Bldg/Matl group have inflated 18.0% since 2021 which is having an impact. HomeCtr/Hdwe are only actually up vs Apr 23 and Ytd vs 21 & 19 but Farm stores are only actually up vs 19. All “real” measurements vs 21 are negative for Home/Hdwe. However, all “real” numbers but vs 19 are negative for Farm Strs. Plus, only 25% of the overall Building Materials group’s 19>24 lift was real. Avg 19>24 Growth: HomeCtr/Hdwe: 5.3%, Real: 1.2%; Farm: 6.2%, Real: 2.1%
Food & Drug – Both are truly essential. Except for the pandemic food binge buying, they tend to have smaller changes in $. In terms of inflation, the Grocery rate is still less than half of the rate for Drug/Med products. Drug Stores are down vs March but again up in all other measurements and 64% of their 2019>24 growth is real. Supermarkets $ are down vs April 23 and their only real positives are Ytd vs 23 & 19. Plus, only 7% of their 19>24 increase is real growth. Avg 19>24 Growth: Supermarkets: +5.2%, Real: +0.4%; Drug Stores: +4.6%, Real: +3.1%.
Sporting Goods Stores – They also benefited from the pandemic in that consumers turned to self-entertainment, especially sports & outdoor activities. Sales are down from March and their only positives are actual & real Ytd vs 19. Prices are still deflating, -1.1% vs 23. Deflation started in April 23 and is a big change from +1.1% in 22>23 and +7.9% in 21>22. The result is that 60% of their 38.6% lift since 19 is real. Avg 19>24 Growth Rate is: +6.7%; Real: +4.3%.
Gen Mdse Stores – Sales were down for all vs March. All actual sales but vs April 23 were up for Club/SupCtr/$ Stores. $ stores were up for all. On the other hand, Disc Dept Stores were only actually up Ytd vs 21 & 19 but were really down for all. Plus, only 8% of their growth is real. The other channels average 47% in real growth. Avg 19>24 Growth: SupCtr/Club: 6.0%, Real: 2.8%; $/Value Strs: +6.4%, Real: +3.2%; Disc. Dept. Strs: +1.9%, Real: -0.2%.
Office, Gift & Souvenir Stores – Sales were up from March, but it was not enough. They are negative in all actual comparisons but Ytd vs 21 and their real sales numbers are all negative. This includes all negatives vs 2019. Their recovery started late, and their slow progress has been stalled since June 23. Avg Growth Rate: -0.8%, Real: -2.8%
Internet/Mail Order – $ are up 13.1% from March and set a new monthly record of $108.5B. All measurements are positive, but their growth is still only 77.5% of their average since 2019. However, 82.3% of their 118.2% growth since 2019 is real. Avg Growth: +16.9%, Real: +14.6%. As expected, they are still by far the growth leaders since 2019.
A/O Miscellaneous – Pet Stores are 22>24% of total $. In May 2020 they began their recovery which reached a record level of $100B for the first time in 2021. In 2022 their sales dipped in January, July, Sept>Nov, rose in December, fell in Jan>Feb 23, grew Mar>May, fell in Jun>Aug, rose in Sep>Nov, fell in Dec>Jan, then grew in Feb>Apr. All measurements vs 23, 21 & 19 are positive. They are still in 2^nd place, behind the Internet, in the % increase vs 19 and vs 21. Also, 75% of their 64.1% growth since 2019 is real. Average 19>24 Growth: +10.4%, Real: +8.2%.

April brought it’s usual drop. Most channels – big and small were down vs March. The YOY lifts continue to be small as only 3 of 11 smaller channels were actually and really up vs April 23. Prices are still deflating in 7 of 11 channels but cumulative inflation is still a factor. Sales increases are lower as 8 of 11 channels were really down vs April 21. The Retail Recovery is definitely slowing. The commodities CPI slowed to 0.1% in May. Let’s look for any impact on Retail $ales.

May sales vs April increased for all, not surprising. An Apr>May Total Retail lift has happened every year since 1992. Plus, the 6.1% lift is just 2% less than the average of 6.2%. All actual $ measurements are positive vs 23, 21 & 19 for all groups but Gas Stations Ytd vs 23. The lifts for all big groups but Restaurants (-21%) vs May 23 were all at least 41% below their 92>23 Average. Inflation is still a big factor. The rate for all commodities, the best pricing measure for Retail, fell from 0.3% to 0.1% but is 14.0% vs 21. There is some “real” retail good news. In April, 6 measurements were “really” down vs 23 & 21 and 2 came from Gas Stations. In May, 4 were still really down – only from Auto & Gas Stations. Also, you may remember that from Nov 23>Feb 24 Relevant Retail had 4 straight months of all positive measurements. In Mar>Apr their real monthly sales vs 21 turned negative. In May they are again all positive. BTW – So is Total Retail.

Overall – Inflation Reality – For Total Retail, inflation slowed and all measurements are again positive. For Restaurants, inflation remains high, +3.9% but they are still all positive. Gas prices rose and that group is still in turmoil. Auto prices are down but are still +9.9% vs 21 which continues to slow actual & real sales. Prices are slightly deflating for Relevant Retail and all measurements are again positive. Their slow progress is continuing.

Total Retail – Since June 20, every month but April 23 has set a monthly sales record. In 2023, Sales were on a roller coaster. Up in Jul>Aug, down in Sept, up in Oct>Dec, down in Jan 24, up in Feb>Mar, down in April, up in May. Inflation is down to 0.1%. YOY sales growth is only 59% of the 92>23 avg. Sales are up 3.3% Ytd vs 2023, only 48% of their avg 19>24 growth. All YOY comparisons are now positive but only 39% of the 19>24 growth is real. YOY inflation in Total Retail has significantly slowed but we still see its cumulative impact. Growth: 23>24: 3.3%; Avg 19>24: +6.9%, Real: +2.9%.

Restaurants – They were hit hard by the pandemic and didn’t begin recovery until March 2021. However, they have had strong growth since then, exceeding $1T for the 1^st time in 2023 and even setting a new monthly record of $99.5B this month. They have the biggest Ytd increases vs 23, 21 & 19 and all real sales are positive. Inflation slowed to 3.9% in May but is still +20.6% vs 21 and +26.2% vs 19. 38.6% of their 50.8% growth since 19 is real and they remain 3^rd in performance behind Relevant & Total. Recovery started late but inflation started early. Growth: 6.1%; Avg 19>24:+8.6%, Real: +3.6%. They just account for 13.6% of Total Retail $, but their performance improves the overall retail numbers.

Auto (Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers) – They actively worked to overcome the stay-at-home attitude with great deals and a lot of advertising. They finished 2020 up 1% vs 2019 and hit a record $1.48T in 2021 but much of it was due to skyrocketing inflation. In 22, sales got on a rollercoaster. Inflation started to drop mid-year, but it caused 4 down months in actual sales which are the only reported sales negatives by any big group in 21>22. This is bad but their Y/E real 2022 sales numbers were much worse, down -8.2% vs 2021 and -8.9% vs 2019. 2023 was a true rollercoaster but the $ set a new record, $1.595T. $ fell in Jan 24, grew Feb>Mar, fell in Apr, then grew in May. Only May & Ytd $ vs 21 are “really” negative. Prices vs 23 are -3.9%. Only 21.4% of 19>24 growth is real. Growth: 2.6%; Avg 19>24: +5.8%, Real: +1.4%.

Gas Stations – Gas Stations were hit hard by “stay at home”. They started recovery in March 2021 and inflation began. Sales got on a rollercoaster in 2022 but reached a record $583B. Inflation started to slow in August and prices slightly deflated in Dec & Feb 23, then strongly fell in Mar>Jul to -20.2%. In August they rose to -3.7%. In Sep they were +2.7% but began deflating to -4.2% in Feb. In Mar>May they grew again. $ are only down Ytd vs 23. Pricing is a factor in the $ drop vs 23 but real $ vs May 21 & Ytd vs 21 & 19 are also down. Growth: -0.8%; Avg 19>24: +4.7%, Real: -1.2%. They show the cumulative impact of inflation and demonstrate how deflation can be both a positive and a negative.

Relevant Retail – Less Auto, Gas and Restaurants – They account for ≈60% of Total Retail $ in a variety of channels, so they took many different paths through the pandemic. However, their only down month was April 2020, and they led the way in Total Retail’s recovery. Sales got on a roller coaster in 2022 but all months in 2022 set new records with December reaching a new all-time high, $481B, and an annual record of $4.81T. In 2023, the roller coaster continued. A December lift set a new monthly record of $494.7B & an annual record of $4.997T. Sales fell in Jan>Feb 24 rose in Mar, fell in Apr, then rose in May, a normal pattern. The May YOY lift of 2.8% is down 41% from their 92>23 avg. However, all actual & real comparisons are again positive. We should also note that 51% of their 41.6% 19>24 growth is real – #1 in performance. Growth: 3.4%; Avg 19>24: +7.2%, Real: +4.0%. This is where America shops. They finished 2023 and started up 2024 strong. In Mar>Apr their recovery appeared to be slowing. In May, the situation is improving.

Inflation is still low, but the cumulative impact is still there. Sales increases are still small, which is very evident in May. However, it is also significant that there are only 4 real drops vs 23 & 21, down from 6 in April. Restaurants are still doing well, but the Auto group and Gas Stations remain in turmoil. Although not as visible, the biggest concern is still with Relevant Retail. Sales increases remain markedly lower but actual & real sales comparisons are again all positive. Total Retail is also all positive. The recovery appears to be growing again.

Here’s a more detailed look at May by Key Channels in the Stacked Bar Graph Format

Relevant Retail: Growth: +3.4%; Avg: +7.2%, Real: +4.0%. All 11 were up from Apr. Vs May 23: 7 were up, Real: 8. Vs May 21: 8 were up, Real: 5. Vs 19: Only Dept Stores were actually & really down. Furnishing strs. were also really down.
All Dept Stores – This group was struggling before the pandemic hit them hard. They began recovery in March 2020. Sales are up 12.0% from April but their actual $ are only up vs May 23 & Ytd vs 21. Except vs May 23, their real numbers are all negative. They are even really down -10.1% vs 2019. Growth: -2.0%; Avg 19>24: -0.1%, Real: -2.1%.
Club/SuprCtr/$- They fueled a big part of the recovery because they focus on value which has broad consumer appeal. $ales are +9.5% from April and they are positive in all measurements. However, only 45% of their 34.3% 19>24 lift is real – inflation’s impact. Ytd growth is below Avg for the 2^nd consecutive month. Growth: 4.1%; Avg: +6.1%, Real: +2.9%.
Grocery- These stores depend on frequent purchases, so except for the binge buying in 2020, their changes are usually less radical. Actual $ are +8.4% from April and positive for all comparisons. However, cumulative inflation has hit them hard. Real $ are down vs 21 and only 7% of the growth since 2019 is real. Growth: 1.6%; Avg 19>24: +5.2%, Real: +0.4%.
Health/Drug Stores – Many stores are essential, but consumers visit less frequently than Grocery stores. $ are +3.4% from Apr. They are only actually, and really down vs May 23 and really down Ytd vs 23. Because inflation has been relatively low, 63% of their 24.8% growth from 2019 is real. Growth: 2.2%; Avg 19>24: +4.5%, Real: +2.9%
Clothing and Accessories – Clothes initially mattered less when you stayed home. That changed in March 21 with strong growth through 2022. Sales are up +13.6% from April and positive in all comparisons but real vs May 21. Plus, 63% of their 19>24 growth is real. Growth: 2.5%; Avg 19>24: +3.2%, Real:+2.1%
Home Furnishings – In mid-2020 consumers’ focus turned to their homes and furniture became a priority. Prices are still deflating but they were high in 2022. Sales are +4.2% from April but negative in all other measurements but actual Ytd sales vs 2019. They have sold less product in 2024 than 2019. Growth: -7.9%; Avg 19>24: +2.3%, Real: -0.4%
Electronic & Appliances – This channel has had many issues. Sales fell in Apr>May of 2020 and didn’t reach 2019 levels until March 21. $ are up +7.6% from April and all comparisons are now positive – a big turnaround. We should also note that their current Ytd growth is essentially equal to their 19>24 avg. Growth: +0.76%; Avg 19>24: +0.79%, Real: +3.6%.
Building Material, Farm & Garden & Hardware –They truly benefited from the consumers’ focus on home. In 2022 the lift slowed as inflation grew to double digits. Prices are still deflating, and sales are up 8.0% from April but they are only positive vs May 21 & Ytd vs 21 & 19. Prices may be deflating but are still 16.8% above 21 so real sales are all negative except Ytd vs 19. Also, just 22% of their 19>24 sales growth is real. Growth: -3.0%; Avg 19>24: +5.5%, Real: +1.3%.
Sporting Goods, Hobby and Book Stores – Consumers turned their attention to recreation and Sporting Goods stores sales took off. Book & Hobby Stores recovered more slowly. Actual sales are +11.0% from April but down for all but Ytd vs 2019. The only positive real sales measurements are vs May 23 and Ytd vs 23 & 19. Their inflation rate has been lower than most groups so 71% of their 27.3% growth since 2019 is real. Growth: -2.5%; Avg 19>24: +4.9%, Real: +3.6%.
All Miscellaneous Stores – Pet Stores have been a key part of the strong and growing recovery of this group. They finished 2020 at +0.9% but sales took off in March 21 and have continued to grow. Sales are +10.7% vs April and are again positive in all measurements – actual & real. They are still 2^nd to NonStore in the % increase vs 19 and vs 21. 68% of their 44% 19>24 growth is real but their current rate is still below Avg. Growth: +7.2%; Avg 19>24: +7.5%, Real: 5.4%.
NonStore Retailers – 90% of their $ comes from Internet/Mail Order/TV. The pandemic accelerated online spending. They ended 2020 +21.4%. The growth continued in 2021 as sales exceeded $100B for the 1^st time and they broke the $1 Trillion barrier. $ are only +3.0% from April. Their YOY lift slowed to +7.3% in May and Ytd they are 40% below Avg. They are positive in all measurements and 81% of their 102% 19>24 growth is real. Growth: 9.1%; Avg: +15.1%, Real: +12.7%.

Note: Almost without exception, online sales by brick ‘n mortar retailers are recorded with their regular store sales.

Recap – The Retail recovery from the pandemic was largely driven by Relevant Retail and by the end of 2021 it had become very widespread. In 2022, there was a new challenge, the worst inflation in 40 years. Overall, inflation has slowed considerably from its June 22 peak and in May, 8 channels are now deflating. This should help the Retail Situation. As expected, Sales grew from April. The 7.1% lift for Relevant Retail was above their 6.1% avg but the problem is with slowing YOY monthly increases. The 2.8% Relevant Retail lift vs May 23 was 41% below their 92>23 average 4.8% increase and 4 of 11 channels actually had a decrease. Miscellaneous led the way among the 7 with increases with +8.0%. Inflation is low and even deflating in many channels. However, we are still seeing the impact of high cumulative inflation. Only a few channels are doing well. The slowing of the YOY sales increase has become the biggest problem. In April & May no channels had a Ytd lift above their 19>24 Avg. There is some good news. After a 2-month pause, Relevant Retail is again positive in all comparisons vs 23, 21 & 19. That’s 5 of the last 7 months. The slow recovery continues.

I’m sure that this list raises some questions. Here are some answers to some of the more obvious ones.

Why is the group for Non-store different from the Internet?
1. Non-store is not all internet. It also includes Fuel Oil Dealers, the non-motor fuel Energy Commodity.
Why is there no Food at home included in Non-store or Internet?
1. Online Grocery purchasing is becoming popular but almost all is from companies whose major business is brick ‘n mortar. These online sales are recorded under their primary channel.
6 Channels have the same CPI aggregate but represent a variety of business types.
1. They also have a wide range of product types. Rather than try to build aggregates of a multitude of small expenditure categories, it seemed better to eliminate the biggest, influential groups that they don’t sell. This method is not perfect, but it is certainly closer than any existing aggregate.
Why are Grocery and Supermarkets only tied to the Grocery CPI?
1. According to the Economic Census, 76% of their sales comes from Grocery products. Grocery Products are the driver. The balance of their sales comes from a collection of a multitude of categories.
What about Drug/Health Stores only being tied to Medical Commodities.
1. An answer similar to the one for Grocery/Supermarkets. However, in this case Medical Commodities account for over 80% of these stores’ total sales.
Why do SuperCtrs/Clubs and $ Stores have the same CPI?
1. While the Big Stores sell much more fresh groceries, Groceries account for ¼ of $ Store sales. Both Channels generally offer most of the same product categories, but the actual product mix is different.

Retail Channel $ Update – March Monthly & April Advance

May 28, 2024/in Pet Market Distribution Channels/by John Gibbons

In April, Commodities inflation vs last year slowed to 0.3% from 0.6% in March. Although radically down from its peak, cumulative inflation still impacts consumer spending. The YOY sales increase for April is below the 92>23 average (-20%) for Relevant Retail and for all but 2 channels. Prices are now deflating in many channels but still high vs 21, which slows growth in the amount of product sold. There is still a long road to recovery, so we’ll continue to track the retail market with data from 2 reports provided by the Census Bureau and factor in a targeted CPI from US BLS data.

We will begin with the March Monthly Report and then go to the April Advance Report. Our focus is comparing to last year but also 2021 & 2019. We’ll show both actual and the “real” change in sales as we factor inflation into the data.

Both reports include the following:

Total Retail, Restaurants, Auto, Gas Stations and Relevant Retail (removing Restaurants, Auto and Gas)
Individual Channel Data – This is more detailed in the Monthly reports, and we’ll focus on Pet Relevant Channels.

Current Month change – % & $ vs previous month
Current Month change – % & $ vs same month last year and vs 2021.
- Current Month Real change vs last year and vs 2021 – % factoring in inflation
Current Ytd change – % & $ for this year vs last year, 2021 & 2019.
- Current Ytd Real change % for this year vs last year and vs 2021 and 2019
Monthly & Ytd $ & CPIs for this year vs last year and vs 2021 which are targeted by channel will also be shown. (CPI Details are at the end of the report)

First the March Monthly. All were up from February. Gas Stations were down vs 23 & Auto vs Mar 23 & 21. All other actual $ are up. We should note that Gas Stations are still selling less product than in 2019 but the worst news is that Relevant Retail is really down vs Mar 21, after 4 straight months of all positives. ($ are Not Seasonally Adjusted)

The March Monthly is $4.1B less than the Advance report. Restaurants: No/Chg; Auto: +$0.2B; Gas Stations: -$0.2B; Relevant Retail: -$3.9B. As expected, $ales were up vs FebruaryE for all. Actual sales for all but Auto & Gas Stations were positive in all measurements. Gas prices turned up and their sales were down vs 23. Auto prices are deflating but $ were down vs March 23 & 21. There were 8 “real” sales drops, up from only 2 last month. Gas Stations had 4 but only Restaurants had none. Restaurants have the biggest increases vs 21 & 19 but Relevant Retail is still the top “real” performer vs 2019. However, only 53% of their growth is real.

Now, let’s see how some Key Pet Relevant channels did in March in the Stacked Bar Graph Format

Overall– All 11 were up from February. vs Mar 23, Only 5 were actually and “really” up. Vs Mar 21, 6 were up but only 3 were real increases. Vs 2019, Off/Gift/Souv were actually & really down. All others were up in both measurements.

Building Material Stores – The pandemic focus on home has produced sales growth of 30.3% since 2019. Prices for the Bldg/Matl group have inflated 18.8% since 2021 which is having an impact. HomeCtr/Hdwe are only actually up Ytd vs 21 & 19 but Farm stores are only actually up vs 19. Despite strong deflation, all “real” measurements but Ytd vs 2019 are negative for both. Plus, only 22% of the overall Building Materials group’s 19>24 lift was real. Avg 19>24 Growth: HomeCtr/Hdwe: 5.3%, Real: 1.2%; Farm: 5.9%, Real: 1.8%
Food & Drug – Both are truly essential. Except for the pandemic food binge buying, they tend to have smaller changes in $. In terms of inflation, the Grocery rate is still less than half of the rate for Drug/Med products. Drug Stores are now actually down vs March 23 & really down vs 23 & 21 but 66% of their 2019>24 growth is real. Supermarkets had the biggest $ lift from February and all sales comparisons but “real” vs 21 are positive. However, only 10% of their 19>24 increase is real growth. Avg 19>24 Growth: Supermarkets: +5.4%, Real: +0.6%; Drug Stores: +4.8%, Real: +3.2%.
Sporting Goods Stores – They also benefited from the pandemic in that consumers turned to self-entertainment, especially sports & outdoor activities. Sales are up 21.1% from February but their only positives are actual & real Ytd vs 23 & 19. Prices are still deflating, -2.2% vs 23. Deflation started in April 23 and is a big change from +1.1% in 22>23 and +7.9% in 21>22. The result is that 63% of their 43.4% lift since 19 is real. Avg 19>24 Growth Rate is: +7.5%; Real: +5.0%.
Gen Mdse Stores – Sales were up double digits for all vs February. All actual sales were up for Club/SupCtr/$ Stores. $ stores were only really down vs Mar 21. On the other hand, Disc Dept Stores were only actually up Ytd vs 21 & 19 and only really up vs 19. Plus, only 12% of their growth is real. The other channels average 46% in real growth. Avg 19>24 Growth: SupCtr/Club: 6.2%, Real: 3.0%; $/Value Strs: +6.7%, Real: +3.5%; Disc. Dept. Strs: +2.3%, Real: +0.3%
Office, Gift & Souvenir Stores – Sales are up strong, +10.0% from February but it was not enough. They are negative in all actual comparisons but Ytd vs 21 and their real sales numbers are all negative. This includes all negatives vs 2019. Their recovery started late, and their slow progress has been stalled since June 23. Avg Growth Rate: -0.9%, Real: -2.9%
Internet/Mail Order – $ are up 7.4% from February and set a new monthly record of $106.3B. All measurements are positive, but their growth is only 50.3% of their average since 2019. However, 82.5% of their 119.7% growth since 2019 is real. Avg Growth: +17.1%, Real: +14.7%. As expected, they are still by far the growth leaders since 2019.
A/O Miscellaneous – Pet Stores are 22>24% of total $. In May 2020 they began their recovery which reached a record level of $100B for the first time in 2021. In 2022 their sales dipped in January, July, Sept>Nov, rose in December, fell in Jan>Feb 23, grew Mar>May, fell in Jun>Aug, rose in Sep>Nov, fell in Dec>Jan, then grew in Feb>Mar. All measurements vs 23, 21 & 19 are positive. They are still in 2^nd place, behind the Internet, in the % increase vs 19 but fell to 2^nd from 1st vs 21. Also, 76% of their 64.5% growth since 2019 is real. Average 19>24 Growth: +10.5%, Real: +8.3%.

March brought it’s usual lift. All channels – big and small were up vs February. However, the lifts were smaller as only 5 of 11 smaller channels were actually and really up vs March 23. Prices are now deflating in 9 of 11 channels but cumulative inflation is still a factor. Sales increases are lower as 8 of 11 channels were really down vs March 21. The Retail Recovery may be stalling. The commodities CPI slowed to 0.3% in April. Let’s look for any impact on Retail $ales.

April sales vs March only grew for Gas Stations, not surprising. A Mar>Apr Total Retail lift has only happened 5 times since 1992. However, the -1.0% drop is 48% less than the average of -1.9%. All actual $ measurements are positive vs 23, 21 & 19 for all groups but Gas Stations Ytd vs 23 and Auto vs Apr 21. The lift for all big groups vs April 23 were all at least 20% below their 92>23 Average. Inflation is still a big factor. The rate for all commodities, the best pricing measure for Retail, fell from 0.6% to 0.3% but is 15.7% vs 21. There is more “real”, but not good news. In March, 7 measurements were “really” down vs 23 & 21 and 3 came from Gas Stations. In April, 6 were still really down – 2 from Gas Stations. Relevant Retail’s real monthly sales vs last year have now been positive for 10 straight months, but after 4 straight months of all positives, their real monthly sales vs 21 are down again.

Overall – Inflation Reality – For Total Retail, inflation slowed but real sales vs Apr 21 are still negative. For Restaurants, inflation remains high, +4.1% but they are really positive vs 23 & 21. Gas prices rose and that group is still in turmoil. Auto prices are down but still up 13.7% vs 21 which has slowed actual & real sales. Prices are slightly up for Relevant Retail and their monthly real sales are again down vs 21, after 4 months of all positives. Their progress is slowing.

Total Retail – Since June 20, every month but April 23 has set a monthly sales record. In 2023 Sales were on a roller coaster. Up in Jul>Aug, down in Sept, up in Oct>Dec, down in Jan 24, up in Feb>Mar, then down in April. Inflation fell and is only 0.3%. YOY sales growth is only 79% of the 92>23 avg. Sales are up 3.5% Ytd vs 2023, only 50% of their avg 19>24 growth. Monthly Real sales vs 21 are again negative and only 40% of the 19>24 growth is real. YOY inflation in Total Retail has significantly slowed but we see its cumulative impact. Growth: 23>24: 3.5%;Avg 19>24: +7.0%, Real: +3.0%.

Restaurants – They were hit hard by the pandemic and didn’t begin recovery until March 2021. However, they have had strong growth since then, setting an all-time monthly record of $96B in December 23 and exceeding $1T for the 1^st time. They have the biggest Ytd increases vs 23, 21 & 19 and all real sales are positive. Inflation stayed at 4.1% in April but is still +20.8% vs 21 and +20.7% vs 19. 39.4% of their 51.5% growth since 19 is real and they remain 3^rd in performance behind Relevant & Total. Recovery started late but inflation started early. Growth: 6.2%; Avg 19>24:+8.7%, Real: +3.8%. They just account for 13.6% of Total Retail $, but their performance improves the overall retail numbers.

Auto (Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers) – They actively worked to overcome the stay-at-home attitude with great deals and a lot of advertising. They finished 2020 up 1% vs 2019 and hit a record $1.48T in 2021 but much of it was due to skyrocketing inflation. In 22, sales got on a rollercoaster. Inflation started to drop mid-year, but it caused 4 down months in actual sales which are the only reported sales negatives by any big group in 21>22. This is bad but their Y/E real 2022 sales numbers were much worse, down -8.2% vs 2021 and -8.9% vs 2019. 2023 was a true rollercoaster but the $ set a new record, $1.595T. $ fell in Jan 24, grew in Feb>Mar, then fell in Apr. Actual & real $ vs Apr 21 are negative plus real Ytd vs 21. Prices vs 23 are -2.7%. Only 22.5% of 19>24 growth is real. Growth: 2.6%; Avg 19>24: +5.9%, Real: +1.5%.

Gas Stations – Gas Stations were hit hard by “stay at home”. They started recovery in March 2021 and inflation began. Sales got on a rollercoaster in 2022 but reached a record $583B. Inflation started to slow in August and prices slightly deflated in Dec & Feb 23, then strongly fell in Mar>Jul to -20.2%. In August they rose to -3.7%. In Sep they were +2.7% but began deflating to -4.2% in Feb. In Mar/Apr they were +1.0%. $ are up vs Mar but down Ytd vs 23. Pricing is a factor in the $ drop vs 23 but real $ vs Apr 21 & Ytd vs 21 & 19 are also down. Growth: -0.8%; Avg 19>24: +5.1%, Real: -1.0%. They show the cumulative impact of inflation and demonstrate how deflation can be both a positive and a negative.

Relevant Retail – Less Auto, Gas and Restaurants – They account for ≈60% of Total Retail $ in a variety of channels, so they took many different paths through the pandemic. However, their only down month was April 2020, and they led the way in Total Retail’s recovery. Sales got on a roller coaster in 2022 but all months in 2022 set new records with December reaching a new all-time high, $481B, and an annual record of $4.81T. In 2023, the roller coaster continued. A December lift set a new monthly record of $494.7B and annual record of $4.997T. Sales fell in Jan>Feb 24 rose in Mar, then fell in Apr, which is normal. The -0.7% drop is 40% less than the 92>23 avg and the YOY lift of 3.8% is down 20% from avg. Also, monthly real sales vs 21 are again down after 4 straight months of all positives. However, 52% of their 42.5% 19>24 growth is real – #1 in performance. Growth: 3.8%; Avg 19>24: +7.3%, Real: +4.1%. This is where America shops. They finished 2023 and started up 2024 strong but in Mar>Apr their recovery may be slowing. This is concerning.

Inflation is still low, but the cumulative impact is still there. Sales increases are still small, which is very evident in April. It is also significant that there are 6 real drops vs 23 & 21, only down 1 from 7 in March. Restaurants are still doing well, but the Auto group and Gas Stations remain in turmoil. Although not as visible, the biggest concern is still with Relevant Retail. Sales increases are markedly lower and monthly real sales vs 21 are again negative after 4 months of all positives. Consumers are spending more $ and buying more product than in 23, but less than in 21. Progress has definitely slowed.

Here’s a more detailed look at April by Key Channels in the Stacked Bar Graph Format

Relevant Retail: Growth: +3.8%; Avg: +7.3%, Real: +4.1%. Only 3 were up from Mar. Vs Apr 23: 6 were up, Real: 5. Vs Apr 21: 6 were up, Real: 3. Vs 19: All were actually up. Only Dept Stores & Furnishing stores were really down.
All Dept Stores – This group was struggling before the pandemic hit them hard. They began recovery in March 2020. Sales are down -5.3% from March. Their actual $ are only up Ytd vs 21 & 19. Their real numbers are all negative. They are even really down -9.4% vs 2019. Growth: -2.4%; Avg 19>24: +0.04%, Real: -2.0%.
Club/SuprCtr/$- They fueled a big part of the recovery because they focus on value which has broad consumer appeal. $ales are -5.8% from March, but they are positive in all measurements except real vs Apr 21. However, only 45% of their 34.8% 19>24 lift is real – inflation’s impact. Note: Ytd growth is now below Avg. Growth: 4.3%; Avg: +6.1%, Real: +2.9%.
Grocery- These stores depend on frequent purchases, so except for the binge buying in 2020, their changes are usually less radical. Actual $ are -5.5% from March but up for all except vs Apr 23. However, cumulative inflation has hit them hard. Real $ are down vs 21 and only 8% of the growth since 2019 is real. Growth: 1.5%; Avg 19>24: +5.3%, Real: +0.5%.
Health/Drug Stores – Many stores are essential, but consumers visit less frequently than Grocery stores. $ are -2.7% from Mar. Actual $ are all up and real $ are only down vs Apr 23. Inflation has been low so 65% of their 25% growth from 2019 is real. Note: Their growth is again below the 19>24 avg. Growth: 2.9%; Avg 19>24: +4.6%, Real: +3.1%
Clothing and Accessories – Clothes initially mattered less when you stayed home. That changed in March 21 with strong growth through 2022. Sales are down -4.2% from March but positive in all comparisons but actual & real vs Apr 23 and real sales vs Apr 21. Plus, 63% of their 19>24 growth is real. Growth: 2.0%; Avg 19>24: +3.1%, Real:+2.0%
Home Furnishings – In mid-2020 consumers’ focus turned to their homes and furniture became a priority. Prices are still deflating but they were high in 2022. Sales are -6.4% from March and negative in all other measurements but actual Ytd sales vs 2019. They have sold less product in 2024 than 2019. Growth: -9.0%; Avg 19>24: +2.4%, Real: -0.4%
Electronic & Appliances – This channel has many problems. Sales fell in Apr>May of 2020 and didn’t reach 2019 levels until March 21. $ are down -4.4% from March. Actual $ are up vs Apr 23 & Ytd vs 21 & 19. Due to strong deflation, all real sales are positive. Note: Their growth is now below their Avg. Growth: -0.2%; Avg 19>24: +0.7%, Real: +3.4%.
Building Material, Farm & Garden & Hardware –They truly benefited from the consumers’ focus on home. In 2022 the lift slowed as inflation grew to double digits. Prices are still deflating, and sales are up 16.9% from March but they are only positive vs Apr 23 & Ytd vs 21 & 19. Prices are deflating but still 18.0% above 21 so real sales are negative monthly & Ytd vs 21. Also, just 23% of their 19>24 sales growth is real. Growth: -2.5%; Avg 19>24: +5.5%, Real: +1.4%.
Sporting Goods, Hobby and Book Stores – Consumers turned their attention to recreation and Sporting Goods stores sales took off. Book & Hobby Stores recovered more slowly. Actual sales are -6.8% from March and down for all but Ytd vs 2019. The only positive real sales measurements are Ytd vs 23 & 19. Their inflation rate has been lower than most groups so 71% of their 27.3% growth since 2019 is real. Growth: -2.3%; Avg 19>24: +4.9%, Real: +3.6%.
All Miscellaneous Stores – Pet Stores have been a key part of the strong and growing recovery of this group. They finished 2020 at +0.9% but sales took off in March 21 and have continued to grow. Sales are +4.1% vs March and are again positive in all measurements – actual & real. They are still 2^nd to NonStore in the % increase vs 19 and vs 21. 70% of their 46% 19>24 growth is real but their current rate is still below Avg. Growth: +7.5%; Avg 19>24: +7.9%, Real: 5.7%.
NonStore Retailers – 90% of their $ comes from Internet/Mail Order/TV. The pandemic accelerated online spending. They ended 2020 +21.4%. The growth continued in 2021 as sales exceeded $100B for the 1^st time and they broke the $1 Trillion barrier. $ are +2.0% from March. Their YOY lift grew to +12.8% in April but Ytd they are 35% below Avg. They are positive in all measurements and 81% of their 104% 19>24 growth is real. Growth: 10.1%; Avg: +15.4%, Real: +13.0%.

Note: Almost without exception, online sales by brick ‘n mortar retailers are recorded with their regular store sales.

Recap – The Retail recovery from the pandemic was largely driven by Relevant Retail and by the end of 2021 it had become very widespread. In 2022, there was a new challenge, the worst inflation in 40 years. Overall, inflation has slowed considerably from its June 22 peak and 7 channels are now deflating. This should help the Retail Situation. As expected, Sales fell from March. However, the drop was below average for many channels but he YOY monthly increase is also slowing. The 3.8% Relevant Retail lift vs Apr 23 was 20% below its 92>23 average 4.7% increase and 5 of 11 channels actually had a decrease. Among the 6 with increases, only NonStore & Misc. had double-digit lifts over 23. Inflation is low and now deflating in many channels. However, we are still seeing the impact of high cumulative inflation. Only a few channels are doing well. The slowing of the YOY sales increase has become the biggest problem. In March, only SupCtr/Club/$ & Electronics had a Ytd lift above their 19>24 Avg. In April, there were none. Relevant Retail is really down Ytd vs 21 for the 2^nd straight month, after 4 consecutive months of all positives. The recovery has definitely slowed.

Monthly YOY CPI changes of 0.2% or more are highlighted. (Green = lower; Pink = higher)

I’m sure that this list raises some questions. Here are some answers to some of the more obvious ones.

Why is the group for Non-store different from the Internet?
1. Non-store is not all internet. It also includes Fuel Oil Dealers, the non-motor fuel Energy Commodity.
Why is there no Food at home included in Non-store or Internet?
1. Online Grocery purchasing is becoming popular but almost all is from companies whose major business is brick ‘n mortar. These online sales are recorded under their primary channel.
6 Channels have the same CPI aggregate but represent a variety of business types.
1. They also have a wide range of product types. Rather than try to build aggregates of a multitude of small expenditure categories, it seemed better to eliminate the biggest, influential groups that they don’t sell. This method is not perfect, but it is certainly closer than any existing aggregate.
Why are Grocery and Supermarkets only tied to the Grocery CPI?
1. According to the Economic Census, 76% of their sales comes from Grocery products. Grocery Products are the driver. The balance of their sales comes from a collection of a multitude of categories.
What about Drug/Health Stores only being tied to Medical Commodities.
1. An answer similar to the one for Grocery/Supermarkets. However, in this case Medical Commodities account for over 80% of these stores’ total sales.
Why do SuperCtrs/Clubs and $ Stores have the same CPI?
1. While the Big Stores sell much more fresh groceries, Groceries account for ¼ of $ Store sales. Both Channels generally offer most of the same product categories, but the actual product mix is different.

The Retail Market – Evolution 1992 > 2023

May 13, 2024/in Pet Market Distribution Channels/by John Gibbons

All aspects of the world are constantly changing. The Retail Marketplace is no exception as retailers try to meet the evolving wants and needs of consumers. When I was growing up, Traditional Department Stores and Brand-named products “ruled” the Retail Market. Now, the focus is on value (quality + price) and convenience so the Internet and the big “1 stop shopping” outlets like Warehouse Clubs, SuperCenters and Home Centers dominate the market. Plus, even smaller chain stores now offer a variety of private label products.

Total Retail grew from $2.0T in 1992 to $8.3T in 2023, a 312% increase – over 4 times more $ were spent. In this report we will try to identify the specific changes in the Retail Market from 1992 to 2023 that drove the increase. Some channels rose to prominence while others fell. The primary source of the data is the Census Bureau’s Monthly Retail Trade Report. This evolution report is long and complex. We will start with the Big Retail Groups then ultimately drill down to the individual channel level. The final results are relatively simple but the journey to our goal is very complicated. To make it easier for you to understand, I have created and included 38 graphs and charts so you can literally “see” the details of the 1992>2023 Retail Evolution. It will also reduce the amount of comments. We should also note that the data is in actual $. Inflation can certainly impact consumer spending, but we will focus on the amount spent. FYI – The CPI increased 117% from 1992>2023 and Commodities prices grew by 73.1% so Total Retail only had a 138% lift in the amount of product sold 92>23. Services were the overwhelming “leader” in raising prices – +153%.

Let’s get started. Our first two pie charts show the Total Retail market share for the Big Groups – Restaurants, Auto, Gas Stations and Relevant Retail in 1992 and 2023.

The 2 charts look very similar. There was no change in share for Gas Stations. Restaurants were the only group to gain share, +3.1%. I’m sure that a 150+% increase in prices was a big factor. The Auto group lost -1.7% but the big surprise was Relevant Retail losing -1.5%. They are now 59.9% but still slightly above their 92>23 average of 59.8%. This is rather calm. Let’s look at the cumulative growth by year in a line graph.

The first thing that you notice is that there are 2 big negative events – the Great Recession which hit bottom in 2009 and the 2020 Pandemic. The Recession drove sales down in all big groups. Auto was actually down in both 2008 & 2009. Their drop in 2008 was large enough to drive Total Retail down for that year too. Auto didn’t return to the sales level of 2007 until 2013. Gas Stations had a huge drop in 2009 but they recovered by 2011. Relevant Retail had a small drop. They almost recovered in 2010 but didn’t officially exceed 2008 sales until 2011. BTW, this was their only annual sales decrease since 1992. Restaurants had a miniscule drop and were back on track in 2010. As noted, sales in Total Retail were down in both 2008 & 2009. They fully recovered in 2011.

Now, the 2020 Pandemic. Sales decreased in Restaurants, Auto and Gas Stations but the lift in Relevant Retail was large enough to keep Total Retail slightly positive. Due to the “stay at home” attitude, the drops in Restaurants and Gas Stations were huge but all groups had recovered by 2021. Here are some 1992>2023 specifics.

Total Retail – 2023 sales = $8.294T; growth from 1992: +$6.280T (+311.8%); avg growth: +4.6%. They only had 2 annual decreases, in 2008 & 2009. The biggest drop was -7.4% in 2009. Their biggest lift was +18.4% in 2021.

Restaurants – 2023 sales = $1.094T; growth from 1992: +$891.2B (+493.3%); avg growth: +5.6%. They also have had only 2 drops, in 2009 & 2020. The biggest drop was -15.3% in 2020. Their biggest increase was +29.1% in 2021.

Auto – 2023 sales = $1.583T; growth from 1992: +$1.165T (+278.3%); avg growth: +4.4%. They have had 3 down years, in 2008, 2009 & 2020. The worst was -14.5% in 2009. Their best year was +22.5% in 2021.

Gas Stations – 2023 sales = $650.1B; growth from 1992: +$493.8B (+315.9%); avg growth: +4.7%. As you can see on the chart, their sales have been on an up/down roller coaster ride for the last 20 years. Interestingly enough, in 2023 they are at about the same level as they would have been if they had just maintained their 1992>2003 growth rate. They’ve had 10 down years, the worst was -22.3% in 2009 but 4 drops, including 23 were over 10%. Their best year was +33.4% in 2021 but 10 were in double digits. Prices are up 216% since 1992, with big fluctuations, which explains the rollercoaster.

Relevant Retail (Less Restaurants, Auto & Gas) – 2023 sales = $4.967T; growth from 1992: +$3.731T (+301.7%); avg growth: +4.6%. As we noted, their only down year was 2009, -3.6%. In fact, they only had one other year below +2.0% – +0.5% in 2008. Their best year was +13.7% in 2021 and was the only year that their increase exceeded 10%. They are the epitome of consistency. Their share of Total Retail has been 59>59.9% in all but 7 years. In those years, it ranged from 60.2% in 2008 to 63.2% in 2020. Two of the 60+ years were 1992>93 at the start of our analysis, but five – 2008>10 & 2020>21 occurred when the country was in crisis. Relevant Retail includes a variety of channels that often have a radically different reaction to trends and outside influences. However, they always manage to “unite” to produce consistent growth for this big group.

In our next analytical step, we will begin to drill down into Relevant Retail to see the specifics behind the consistent growth in the largest member of the Big Groups. It is the area of most interest to the CPG industry. We start with pie charts showing the 1992 & 2023 share of dollars of the large channel Subgroups.

Unlike Total Pet, you immediately see a major difference in the 2 charts. With a 21.1% increase in share, NonStore moved up from #7 to #1. All other subgroups but Health & Drug loss share. The biggest decrease was -10.3% by Food & Beverage, the former leader. The smallest drop was -0.6% by Building Materials/Farm. Obviously, this deserves a closer look. We will turn to line charts covering 1992>2023 sales. To make them easier to read, they are divided into 3 groups based on the % size of their 92>23 increase. We will start with the lowest performers and work our way to the top.

With some slight variations, all 3 had a very similar pattern. They also more than doubled their sales but that was significantly below the overall quadrupling by Relevant Retail.

Furniture, Appliances & Electronics – $230.6B; +$129.5B (+128.2%); avg: +2.7%. They had the biggest Recession drop, -17.5% which started in 2008. They actually didn’t recover to the 2007 level until the 24.9% lift in 2021, after the 2020, -10.8% COVID drop.

Sport, Book, Hobby, Music – $102.1B; +59.1B (+137.6%); avg: +2.8%. They had the smallest Recession drop and sales were down before COVID. They actually grew in 2020. Worst year: 2018 (-4.7%); Best year: 2021 (+22.5%).

Clothing & Access – $307.1B; +$187.0B (+155.7%); avg: +3.1%. They had drops in 2008>09 & 2020 but quickly recovered. Worst year: 2020 (-24.8%); Best year 2021 (+45.1%).

You see some distinct differences in the patterns of this mid-level group. While their 1992>2023 increases were all below Relevant Retail, all Subgroups except Food & Beverage at least tripled their sales vs 1992.

Food & Beverage – $979.2B; +$608.6B (+164.3%); avg: +3.2%. They have had relatively low growth, but it has been very consistent. They had only 1 down year, 2009 and the drop was small, -0.2%. Their biggest lift was +9.3% in 2020. Their growth accelerated from 2020>2023. This was primarily due to 2 factors – the move to eat at home and strong inflation.

Miscellaneous Stores (includes Pet) – $173.4B; +$118.5B (+216.2%); avg: +3.8%. They had drops in 2001>03, 2008>09 & 2020. The biggest decrease was -8.1% in 2009 and they didn’t recover to the 2007 level until 2015. The 2020 drop was a different story. They recovered immediately in 2021 with the biggest lift in history, +24.2%. This was their first double digit lift since +12.9% in 1994. Growth slowed markedly to +1.2% in 2023.

General Mdse – $884.2B; +$636.3B (+256.7%); avg: +4.2%. Although their growth is bigger, they have a pattern very similar to Food & Bvg. They have only 1 drop. It also occurred in 2009 and was minor, -1.0%. They also had no double digit increases but their biggest lift was in 2021, +9.4%, not 2020 and their growth after COVID was a little stronger.

Building Material/Farm – $495.2B; +$364.2B (+278.0%); avg: +4.4%. Their pattern was very different. Sales fell from 2007 through 2010 and also in 2023. The biggest drop was -13.3% in 2009. Plus, their growth accelerated in 2020 and continued through 2022. The biggest lift was +14.3% in 2021 but 2020 was 2^nd with +13.0%. Now, the top performers…

As you can see, there were only 2 Subgroups whose growth exceeded Relevant Retail – Health/Drug & NonStore. While Health/Drug had consistent growth, NonStore accelerated in 2010 and then skyrocketed in 2020.

Health & Drug – $435.7B; +$346.0B (+385.7%); avg: +5.2%. Their growth was definitely consistent as they were the only Subgroup with no decreases in sales. Their smallest lift was +0.9% in 2012. They only had 1 double digit increase, +10.1% in 1999. Sales did increase +9.0% in 2021 & +8.1% in 2023 but their strongest growth was 1996>2003 – avg: +8.3%.

NonStore – $1.360T; +$1.281T (+1632.1%); avg: +9.6%. Their spectacular growth is obviously being driven by the internet. They did have 1 down year, -2.5% in 2009. Sales took off in 2010 then exploded with a 29.3% lift in 2020. Every year 2017>2023 had a double-digit increase. Consumers seek value & convenience, which is the internet game plan.

The next pie chart shows each Subgroup’s share of Relevant Retail’s total growth. If you divide the share of growth by the share of 1992 sales you get a measure of performance. The bar graph allows you to compare the results.

As expected, NonStore drove the growth and their performance was “off the chart”. Performance must exceed 100% for a group to “earn its share”. Only NonStore and Health/Drug exceeded 100%. All others underperformed. This is interesting but not really usable. We must “drill down” to the channel level to find out what is really happening in Retail. We will do that by analyzing key channels within the Subgroups, starting with Furniture, Appliance & Electronics stores.

The Subgroup loss 3.6% share of Relevant Retail. Within the subgroup, Electronics lost almost 25% of its share of group $. Most was picked up by Furniture but a little by Appliances. Let’s look at their cumulative growth by year in a line graph.

All had big drops in 2009 but Appliance sales increased in 2020. They have similar patterns but with some differences.

Relevant Retail: +301.7% Furniture, Appliance, Electronics Subgroup: 128.2%

Electronics – $70.4B; +$30.2B (+74.9%); avg: +1.8%; They had strong consistent growth through 2007. Since then, they have been on a rollercoaster but trending down from their 2007 peak. Biggest Chges – ↑: 2021: +28.8%; ↓: 2020: -23.5%

Appliance – $21.5B; +$13.1B (+154.8%); avg: +3.1%; They had a big 2008 & 2009 recession drop but sales actually grew in 2020 and after, until dropping in 2023. Biggest Changes – ↑: 2021: +16.5%; ↓: 2009: -10.0%

Furniture – $138.7B; +86.3B (+164.9%); avg: +3.2%; $ dropped 2007>2009, 2020 & 2023. The biggest decrease was -14.2% in 2009. In 2007 their growth fell below the subgroup. They have exceeded it 2016>23. Biggest lift – 2021: +24.3%

Building Material/Farm

The Subgroup lost only -0.6% share of Relevant Retail $. Within the Subgroup, Homecenters “rule” and only they gained share, +5.9%. The drops were pretty balanced, ranging from -1.5% for Hardware to -2.2% for Farm and Paint/Wallpaper.

Homecenters obviously drive the Subgroup’s business. Sales for all channels fell during the recession but grew in the pandemic as consumers focused on “home”.

Relevant Retail: +301.7% Building Materials/Farm Subgroup: 278.0%

Paint/Wallpaper – $17.2B; +$9.7B (+129.3%); avg: +2.7%; They had a long 2007>2009 drop. The biggest decrease was in 2009, -15.5%. They didn’t recover until 2015. Their biggest lift was +10.8% in 2005 but 2022 was a close 2^nd, +10.3%.

Hardware – $40.8B; +$28.1B (+221.9%); avg: +3.8%; Their recession decrease was 2008>2009 with the biggest drop in 2009, -7.0%. They recovered in 2012. They’ve only had 3 drops since 92 but they’ve only had 1 10+% lift, +20.4% in 2020.

Farm – $67.4B; +$46.7B (+226.0%); avg: +3.9%; They have had 4 occasional 1 year decreases. The biggest was -11.8% in 2009. Their largest lift was +18.6% in 2021, which surpassed +16.7% in 2020.

Homecenters – $369.8B; +279.6B (+310.2%); avg: +4.7%; Their growth slightly exceeded Relevant Retail, so they gained share. They have always led the group in cumulative growth. They’ve only had 5 drops – 2007>10 & 2023. The biggest decrease was -13.3% in 2009. Their 2 biggest increases were +14.3% in 2021, which beat +13.0% in 2020.

Food & Beverage

Food & Bvg was the biggest loser in share of Relevant Retail, -10.3%. Within the Subgroup there was little change. Supermarkets still have 85% of the $. However, Alcohol Stores were the only channel that gained share, +1.5%.

The Subgroup has shown consistent growth with only 1 down year, -0.2% in 2009. Alcohol Stores have been the growth leader since 2006. Only Convenience Stores have had a lot of fluctuations. The others have very consistent patterns.

Relevant Retail: +301.7% Food & Beverage Subgroup: 164.3%

Convenience Stores – $42.9B; +$22.9B (114.4%); avg: +2.5%; There have been a lot of ups & downs since 2001 with 8 drops. One lasted from 2007>09. The biggest were 2009: -7.4%; 2020: -5.0%. The biggest lifts: 2021: 20.6%; 2022: 19.6%.

Specialty Food – $29.8B; +$18.3B (+160.1%); avg: +3.1%; They have had slow, but consistent growth with only 1 down year, -2.2% in 2009. Their big COVID lift, +11.7% didn’t happen until 2021 but strong growth continued through 2023.

Supermarkets – $834.5B; +$517.1B (+162.9%); avg: +3.2%; Although they have lost a big share of Relevant Retail $, their growth has been very consistent. They have had no decreases since 1992. Their smallest increase was +0.1% in 2009. As expected, their biggest lift occurred in 2020, +10.1%. It was their only double-digit increase.

Beer, Wine & Liquor – $72.0B; +$50.3B (+231.9%); avg: +3.9%; Their growth is 42% more than Supermarkets. It has also been consistent with drops in only 1993 (-0.7%) & 1995 (-0.5%). Their biggest & only double-digit lift was +16.1% in 2020.

Health & Drug Subgroup

Health/Drug gained 1.5% in share of Relevant Retail. NonStore had the biggest gain and was the only other Subgroup to gain share. Drug had a big sales increase but their share of $ within the Subgroup actually decreased by -3.2%.

The Subgroup has shown consistent, above average growth, +5.2%. They have had no down years, but only 1 year with a double digit increase, +10.1% in 1999. Non-Drug Store $ took a big dive in 2020, but it had little impact on the Subgroup.

Relevant Retail: +301.7% Health & Drug Subgroup: +385.3%

Cosmetic, Optical, Health – $71.8B; +$59.9B (503.0%); avg: +6.0%; Except for a small drop in 2009 and a big one in 2020, -11.0% they have had steady growth. It has accelerated since 2010. The biggest lift, +22.0%, was in their 2021 recovery.

Drug – $363B; +$286.1B (+367.8%); avg: +5.1%; They have had only 1 down year, -0.6% in 2012. Their biggest lift and only double-digit increase, +11.9% occurred back in 1999. Obviously, Drug “rules” this Subgroup but the lift is somewhat deceptive. Actual Drug Stores, both chain and independent have been struggling recently as a huge number of Grocery & General Mdse stores have added a pharmacy within the store and online pharmacies have become a major force. The online only companies are still classified as Drug Stores, even though they have no physical outlets.

Clothing & Accessories

The Clothing & Acc. Subgroup’s share of Relevant Retail $ fell from 9.7% to 6.2%, a 36% drop. Within the Subgroup, only Jewelry, Luggage, Leather gained share. Shoes’ share fell -2.5% but the big Clothing channel only lost -0.3%.

All channels have a similar pattern, with Recession & COVID drops. Clothing is definitely the driving force. This is very apparent as the sales pattern of the Subgroup almost exactly matches the pattern of Clothing.

Relevant Retail: +301.7% Clothing & Accessories Subgroup: +155.7%

Shoe Stores – $40.0B; +$21.4B (+114.7%); avg: +2.5%; They had 5 annual dips in $, including 2023. Sales dropped -4.9% in 2009 but -21.2% in 2020. They had a strong recovery, +34.1% in 2021. These were their only double-digit changes.

Clothing – $217.3B; +132.0B (+154.6%); avg: +3.1%; They only had 3 annual decreases, 2008, 2009 and the biggest, -29% in 2020. They had a huge recovery lift of +45.4% in 2021. Like Shoes, these were their only double-digit changes.

Jewelry, Luggage, Leather – $49.8B; +$33.7B (+208.9%); avg: +3.7%; They had the largest increase but also the most fluctuation – 7 decreases. The worst drop was -11.2% in 2009. They had a huge 53.6% lift in 2021 after -5.4% in 2020.

Sporting Goods, Hobby, Toy, Book, Music

This smallest, “entertainment” Subgroup lost -1.4% in share of Relevant Retl $, -40%. Within the Subgroup, Sporting Gds’ share jumped from 36.3% to 61.4%. The other 3 channels all had significant losses, with Books leading the pack, -11.3%.

Sporting Goods moved to the top in 2006 and stayed there. Toy/Hobby/Game essentially stabilized while Book and Sewing/Music/News began to decline. All had their biggest lift in 2021 then growth flattened or declined.

Relevant Retail: +301.7% Sporting Goods, Toy, Hobby, Book, Music Subgroup: +137.6%

Book Stores – $9.7B; -$0.01B (-0.1%); avg: -0.002%; With the rise of the internet, sales have trended down since 2008. Their biggest drop, -30.0% was in 2020, followed by a +29.7% lift in 2021. They are 1 of only 2 negative channels.

Sewing, Music, News – $9.7B; +$1.9B (+24.3%); avg: +0.7%; This group also includes CD stores. Sales turned down in 2008, then stabilized until a -11.4% drop in 2020 which was followed by their biggest lift, +9.9% in 2021.

Toy, Hobby, Game – $21.4B; +$10.2B (+90.3%); avg: +2.1%; Sales were stable around $16B from 1998 to 2013, when they turned slightly up. $ fell 2017>19, grew 2020>22 then dropped in 23. Biggest changes: 2018, -7.3%; 2021, +26.4%.

Sporting Goods – $62.7B; +$47.1B (+302.2%); avg: +4.6%; Unlike the others, this channel is driven by physical activity. Its growth is strong, even exceeding Relevant Retail. Sales dropped in 2009, 2017>18 & 2022>23. The biggest drop was -4.5% in both 2017 & 2018. Their sales actually grew +16.6% in 2020, but they beat that with a +22.3% lift in 2021.

General Merchandise

This Subgroup lost 2.2% in its share of Relevant Retail $. Within the Subgroup, there were huge changes. While $/Value stores essentially held their place, -0.5%, Clubs/SuperCenters’ share skyrocketed from 16.1% to 73.1%. Department Stores – Traditional & Discount paid the price. Their combined share fell from 71.5% in 1992 to 15.0% in 2023.

You see 3 different patterns. 1. Strong Growth: Club/SupCtr; 2. Stability: $/Value; 3. Decline: Dept Stores

Relevant Retail: +301.7% General Merchandise Subgroup: +256.7%

Traditional Department Stores – $29.9B; -$55.2B (-64.8%); avg: -3.3%; They have been fading for years with only 11 “up” years since 1992. Their biggest drop was -46.2% in 2020 but they “recovered” with a +46.6% lift in 2021.

Discount Department Stores – $102.7B; +10.8B (11.8%); avg; +0.4%; They are also fading, with only 4 “up” years since 2001. In fact, they are going away. Many are adding a big grocery section. They will be SupCtrs. The others, just Dept Strs.

$/Value Stores – $105.5B; +$74.7B (242.8%); avg: +4.1%; They evolved from 5&10¢ Stores. They have had steady, mid-level growth with no drops since 1998, but some stores are now struggling, especially with high cumulative inflation. Their biggest lift was +12.7% in 2020.

Warehouse Clubs/SuperCenters – $646.1B; +$606.0B (1514.1%); avg: +9.4%; They have become the dominant General Merchandise channel and their impact on the Relevant Retail Marketplace is second only to the Internet. They have had no down years. Their smallest lift was +0.9% in 2009. They had all double digit increases until 2006. Their biggest increase this century was +18.0% back in 2001.

Miscellaneous Stores

This small, mixed Subgroup lost only 0.9% share of Relevant Retail $. Within the group, A/O Miscellaneous (includes Pet) became dominant. Used Mdse also gained ground. The other 2 channels had double digit losses in share.

A mixture of channels & patterns – Growth, Stability, Decline. All had recession drops & sales for all, but A/O fell in 2020.

Relevant Retail: +301.7% Miscellaneous Store Subgroup: +216.2%

Office – $9.5B; +0.4B (+3.8%); avg: +0.1%; They have been headed down since 2007, with a sales decrease every year. The biggest drop was -8.8% in 2009. Their biggest lift, +21.2% happened over 30 years ago in 1993.

Gift & Souvenir – $20.5B; +$8.2B (+67.4%); avg: +1.7%; For years their sales were steady around $17>18B. They had big drops in 2009 & 2020. They recovered strongly from COVID, +29.9% in 2021 and hit a new $ high, $21.2B in 2022.

A/O Miscellaneous – $118.9B; +$91.0B (+326.7%); avg: +4.8%; This mixed group has had strong, steady growth since an -8.1% drop in 2009, including a +22.5% lift in 2021. Their growth exceeds Relevant Retail’s increase.

Used Merchandise – $24.5B; +$18.9B (+340.0%); avg: +4.9%; As consumers’ have become more focused on value, the appeal of this channel has increased. They had drops in 2009 & 2020 (-9.7%) but a huge, +35.4% lift in 2021.

NonStore

Thanks to the Internet, NonStore gained 21.1% in share and now have the biggest portion of Relevant Retail $, 27.4%. With 91.4% of the $, the Internet essentially owns the NonStore Subgroup.

Fuel & Other Direct more than doubled sales but that is nothing compared to the Internet, which sold 35 times more $.

Relevant Retail: +301.7% NonStore Subgroup: +1632.1%

Fuel Dealers – $40.0B; +$23.3B (+140.0%); avg: +2.9%; This small channel had 16 double digit sales changes. The worst was -23.2% in 2009. The best was +34.0% in 2000. We should note that they were -15.6% in 23 after being +33.1% in 22.

Other Direct Sellers – $76.8B (+188.6%); avg: +3.5%; Their only down years were 2001 & 2008>10. The biggest drop was -9.2% in 2009. Their biggest lift was +12.3% in 2021. They had only 1 other double digit change, +10.8% back in 1994.

Internet/Mail/TV – $1.243T; +$1.208T (+3429.9%); avg: +12.2%; Since 1992 they have had no down years and 23 years with double digit growth. Best yr: +34.1% in 2020. With Selection, Value & Convenience, they are now America’s choice.

Now, it’s time to wrap our analysis up and lay out the results. The best way to compare channels is by Performance – divide a channel’s share of Relevant Retail’s growth by their 1992 share of $ales. Channels with a score of 100+% are earning their share. Here are the results for 29 channels.

There were only 2 Subgroups with 100+% Performance. There are 8 individual channels. Here are the 100+% Winners:

Internet/Mail 1137%
Clubs/SupCtrs 502%
NonDrug Health 167%
Drug Stores 122%
Used Mdse 113%
A/O Misc. 108%
Homecenters 103%
Sporting Goods 100%

If performance is 30% or less, the channel is likely in trouble. Here are the 8 Worst Performers:

Hobby,Toy,Game 30%
Electronics 25%
Gift/Souvenir 22%
Sewing/Music 8%
Disc Dept Strs 4%
Office 1%
Book -0.01%
Reg Dept Strs -21%

Many of the other 13 channels have problems but right now are getting by. In fact, if you take NonStore out of total $, the 4 with a score of 70>99% are “winning” their battle against other brick ‘n mortar retailers with 100+% performance.

Summary

Key Consumer Drivers – Value (Quality + Price), Convenience, Selection along with a big drop in the importance of Brand

Biggest Retail Market Changes:

Consumers’ Movement to online shopping – mostly to NonStore but also in Brick ‘n Mortar Retailers
Growth of Warehouse Clubs & SuperCenters, largely at the expense of Grocery & Department Stores
The fall of Department Stores – Traditional & Discount
The increasing demise of Big Box Specialty Retailers – especially Books, CD’s, DVD’s, Toy, Game, Electronics…

Retail Channel $ Update – February Monthly & March Advance

April 29, 2024/in Pet Market Distribution Channels/by John Gibbons

In March, Commodities inflation vs last year rose from 0.3% in February to 0.6%. Although down from its peak, cumulative inflation still impacts consumer spending. The YOY sales increase for March is 36% below average for Relevant Retail and for all but 2 channels. Prices are now deflating in a number of channels but still high vs 21 which slows growth in the amount of product sold. There is still a long road to recovery, so we’ll continue to track the retail market with data from 2 reports provided by the Census Bureau and factor in a targeted CPI from US BLS data.

We will begin with the February Monthly Report and then go to the March Advance Report. Our focus is comparing to last year but also 2021 & 2019. We’ll show both actual and the “real” change in sales as we factor inflation into the data.

Both reports include the following:

Total Retail, Restaurants, Auto, Gas Stations and Relevant Retail (removing Restaurants, Auto and Gas)
Individual Channel Data – This is more detailed in the Monthly reports, and we’ll focus on Pet Relevant Channels.

Current Month change – % & $ vs previous month
Current Month change – % & $ vs same month last year and vs 2021.
- Current Month Real change vs last year and vs 2021 – % factoring in inflation
Current Ytd change – % & $ for this year vs last year, 2021 & 2019.
- Current Ytd Real change % for this year vs last year and vs 2021 and 2019
Monthly & Ytd $ & CPIs for this year vs last year and vs 2021 which are targeted by channel will also be shown. (CPI Details are at the end of the report)

First the February Monthly. All but Relevant Retail were up from January and all but Gas Stations were up vs 23, 21 & 19. Considering inflation, Gas Stations had the only drop vs 23 or 21. There were 4 in Dec & Jan. Gas Stations are still really down vs 2019 but for the 4th straight month, Relevant Retail is “really” up vs all years. ($ are Not Seasonally Adjusted)

The February Monthly is $4.1B more than the Advance report. Restaurants: +$0.1B; Auto: +$1.9B; Gas Stations: +$0.4B; Relevant Retail: +$1.6B. Surprisingly, $ were up vs January for all but Relevant Retail. Actual sales for all but Gas Stations were positive in all measurements vs 23, 21 & 19. Gas prices fell but Gas Stations sales were down vs 23. There were only 2 “real” sales drops – both from Gas Stations. All measurements (actual & real) vs 23, 21 & 19 were positive for Auto, Restaurants, Total & Relevant Retail. Restaurants have the biggest increases vs 21 & 19 but Relevant Retail is still the top “real” performer vs 2019. However, only 54% of their growth is real.

Now, let’s see how some Key Pet Relevant channels did in February in the Stacked Bar Graph Format

Overall– 8 of 11 were up from January. vs Feb 23, 8 were actually and 9 “really” up. Vs Feb 21, All were up and 8 were real increases. Vs 2019, Off/Gift/Souv were actually & really down. All others were up in both measurements.

Building Material Stores – The pandemic focus on home has produced sales growth of 32.3% since 2019. Prices for the Bldg/Matl group have inflated 19.7% since 2021 which is having an impact. Both HomeCtr/Hdwe and Farm stores are only actually up vs 21 & 19. Deflation pushed Home Ctr/Hdwe really positive vs Feb 23 and they are again really up vs 19. Other real measurements vs 23 & 21 are negative for both and only 25% of the overall Building Materials group’s 19>24 lift was real. Avg 19>24 Growth: HomeCtr/Hdwe: 5.5%, Real: 1.3%; Farm: 7.2%, Real: 3.0%
Food & Drug – Both are truly essential. Except for the pandemic food binge buying, they tend to have smaller changes in $. The inflation situation has flipped as the Grocery rate is now 66% lower than Drug/Med products. Both are down from January in $. Drug Stores are positive in all other measurements and 67% of their 2019>24 growth is real. All actual $ are up for Supermarkets and inflation is slowing but their 24 real sales are still down vs 21. Only 14% of their 19>24 increase is real growth. Avg 19>24 Growth: Supermarkets: +5.7%, Real: +0.9%; Drug Stores: +4.9%, Real: +3.4%.
Sporting Goods Stores – They also benefited from the pandemic in that consumers turned to self-entertainment, especially sports & outdoor activities. Sales are up 1.5% from January and their only negative is real Ytd vs 21. Prices are still deflating, -1.8% vs 23. Deflation started in April 23 and is a big change from +1.1% in 22>23 and +7.1% in 21>22. The result is that 65.2% of their 49.4% lift since 2019 is real. Their Avg 19>24 Growth Rate is: +8.4%; Real: +5.7%.
Gen Mdse Stores – All were up vs January. Actual sales vs 21 & 19 were up for all. In fact, the only negatives came from Discount Department Stores. They were actually down Ytd vs 23 and really down Ytd vs 23 & 21. They are again really positive vs 19 but only 21% of their growth is real. The other channels average 47% in real growth. Avg 19>24 Growth: SupCtr/Club: 5.9%, Real: 2.7%; $/Value Strs: +6.8%, Real: +3.6%; Disc. Dept. Strs: +2.6%, Real: +0.6%
Office, Gift & Souvenir Stores – Actual sales are up slightly, +0.4% from January but they are negative in all actual measurements but vs 21. Their real sales numbers are all negative but vs February 21. This includes negatives vs 2019. Their recovery started late, and their slow progress has been stalled since June 23. Avg Growth Rate: -0.9%, Real: -2.8%
Internet/Mail Order – $ are down -4.7% from January but set a new monthly record of $100.3B. All measurements are positive, but their growth is only 68.2% of their average since 2019. However, 82.9% of their 121.9% growth since 2019 is real. Avg Growth: +17.3%, Real: +15.0%. As expected, they are still by far the growth leaders since 2019.
A/O Miscellaneous – Pet Stores are 22>24% of total $. In May 2020 they began their recovery which reached a record level of $100B for the first time in 2021. In 2022 their sales dipped in January, July, Sept>Nov, rose in December, fell in Jan>Feb 23, grew Mar>May, fell in Jun>Aug, rose in Sep>Nov, fell in Dec>Jan, then grew in Feb. All measurements vs 23, 21 & 19 are positive. They are in 2^nd place, behind the Internet, in the % increase vs 19 but the leader vs 21. Also, 78% of their 73.8% growth since 2019 is real. Average 19>24 Growth: +11.7%, Real: +9.5%.

February was a big, positive surprise. It is usually the retail low point of the year but not in 24. Sales in 8 channels were up vs January and vs February 23. Prices are now deflating in a number of channels so 9 channels were really up vs 23. Cumulative inflation is still a factor. Sales increases are lower and 6 of 11 channels were really down Ytd vs 21 but slow improvement continues. The commodities CPI increased slightly in March. Let’s look for any impact on Retail $ales.

March sales vs February grew for all big groups – no surprise. Except for 2020, a Feb>Mar Total Retail lift has happened every year since 1992. However, the 10.1% lift is 27% below the average of 13.7%. All actual $ measurements are positive vs 23, 21 & 19 for all groups but Gas Stations vs 22 and Auto vs Mar 23 & 21. Only Restaurants have an above average lift vs March 23. Auto & Gas $ are down while Total & Relevant Retail are 36+% below average. Inflation is still a big factor. The rate for all commodities, the best pricing measure for Retail, grew from 0.3% to 0.6% and is 16.6% vs 21. There is some “real” bad news. In February only 1 measurement was “really” down vs 23 & 21 and it came from Gas Stations. In March, 7 were really down – 3 from Gas Stations. Relevant Retail’s real monthly sales vs last year have now been positive for 9 straight months, but after 4 straight months of all positives, their real sales vs March 21 are down.

Overall – Inflation Reality – For Total Retail, inflation grew and real sales vs March 21 turned negative. For Restaurants, inflation remains high, +4.1% but they are really positive vs 23 & 21. Gas prices rose and that group is still in turmoil. Auto prices are down but still up 18.6% vs 21 which has slowed actual & real sales. Prices are slightly deflating for Relevant Retail but their real sales are now down vs March 21, after 4 months of all positives. Their progress is slowing.

Total Retail – Since June 20, every month but April 23 has set a monthly sales record. In 2023 Sales were on a roller coaster. Up in Jul>Aug, down in Sept, up in Oct>Dec, down in Jan 24, surprisingly up in Feb and again in March. Inflation grew but is only 0.6%. YOY sales growth is still low. Sales are up 3.3% Ytd vs last year, but this is only 46% of their avg 19>24 growth. Real sales vs Mar 21 turned negative and only 41% of the 19>24 growth is real. YOY inflation in Total Retail has significantly slowed but we see its cumulative impact. Growth: 23>24: 3.3%; Avg 19>24: +7.2%, Real: +3.3%.

Restaurants – They were hit hard by the pandemic and didn’t begin recovery until March 2021. However, they have had strong growth since then, setting an all-time monthly record of $96B in December 23 and exceeding $1T for the 1^st time. They have the biggest increases vs 23, 21 & 19 and all real sales are positive. Inflation slowed to 4.1% from 4.5% last month but is still +20.8% vs 21 and +25.8% vs 19. 39.5% of their 51.2% growth since 19 is real and they remain 3^rd in performance behind Relevant & Total. Recovery started late but inflation started early. Growth: 6.6%; Avg 19>24:+8.6%, Real: +3.7%. They just account for 13.5% of Total Retail $, but their performance improves the overall retail numbers.

Auto (Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers) – They actively worked to overcome the stay-at-home attitude with great deals and a lot of advertising. They finished 2020 up 1% vs 2019 and hit a record $1.48T in 2021 but much of it was due to skyrocketing inflation. In 22 sales got on a rollercoaster. Inflation started to drop mid-year, but it caused 4 down months in actual sales which are the only reported sales negatives by any big group in 21>22. This is bad but their Y/E real 2022 sales numbers were much worse, down -8.2% vs 2021 and -8.9% vs 2019. 2023 was a true rollercoaster but the $ set a new record, $1.595T. $ fell in Jan 24 but grew in Feb>Mar. However, actual & real $ vs Mar 23 & 21 are negative plus real Ytd vs 21. Prices vs 23 are -0.8%. Only 23% of 19>24 growth is real. Growth: 2.1%; Avg 19>24: +6.0%, Real: +1.5%.

Gas Stations – Gas Stations were also hit hard. If you stay home, you drive less and need less gas. They started recovery in March 2021 and inflation began. Sales got on a rollercoaster in 2022 but reached a record $583B. Inflation started to slow in August and prices slightly deflated in Dec & Feb 23, then strongly fell in Mar>Jul to -20.2%. In August they rose to -3.7%. In Sep they were +2.7% but began deflating to -4.2% in Feb. In Mar they are +1.0%. Pricing is a big factor in the $ drop vs 23 but real $ vs Mar 21 & Ytd vs 21 & 19 are also negative. Growth: -3.0%; Avg 19>24: +5.4%, Real: -1.0%. They show the cumulative impact of inflation and demonstrate how strong deflation can be both a positive and a negative.

Relevant Retail – Less Auto, Gas and Restaurants – They account for 60+% of Total Retail $ in a variety of channels, so they took many different paths through the pandemic. However, their only down month was April 2020, and they led the way in Total Retail’s recovery. Sales got on a roller coaster in 2022 but all months in 2022 set new records with December reaching a new all-time high, $481B, and an annual record of $4.81T. In 2023, sales continued on the roller coaster. A December lift set a new monthly record of $494.7B and annual record of $4.997T. Sales fell in Jan>Feb 24 but rose in March, which is normal. However, the 9.5% lift is 24% below the 92>23 avg and the YOY lift of 3.1% is down 36% from avg. Also, real sales vs Mar 21 turned negative after 4 straight months of all positives. However, 54% of their 44.2% 19>24 growth is real – #1 in performance. Growth: 3.8%; Avg 19>24: +7.6%, Real: +4.3%. This is where America shops. They finished 2023 and started up 2024 strong but in March their recovery appears to be slowing. This is concerning.

Inflation is still low, but the cumulative impact is still there. Sales increases are still small, which is very evident in March. It is also significant that the number of real drops vs 23 & 21 increased to 7 from 1 in February. Restaurants are still doing well, but the Auto group has now joined Gas Stations in turmoil. Although not as visible, the biggest concern is with Relevant Retail. Sales increases are markedly lower and real sales vs Mar 21 turned negative after 4 months of all positives. Consumers are still spending more $ and generally buying more product, but progress has definitely slowed.

Here’s a more detailed look at March by Key Channels in the Stacked Bar Graph Format

Relevant Retail: Growth: 3.8%; Avg: +7.6%, Real: +4.3%. All were up from Feb. Vs Mar 23: 5 were up, Real: 7. Vs Mar 21: 6 were up, Real: 4. Vs 19: All were actually up. Only Dept Stores & Furnishing stores were really down.
All Dept Stores – This group was struggling before the pandemic hit them hard. They began recovery in March 2020. Sales are up 11.8% from February. Their actual $ are only up Ytd vs 21 & 19. Their real numbers are only up vs Mar 23, +0.8%. They are even really down vs 2019. Growth: -1.4%; Avg 19>24: +0.4%, Real: -1.6%.
Club/SuprCtr/$- They fueled a big part of the recovery because they focus on value which has broad consumer appeal. $ales are +13.2% from February. In fact, both actual and real sales are positive in all measurements. However, only 44% of their 33.9% 19>24 lift is real – inflation’s impact. Note: Growth exceeds Avg. Growth: 6.1%; Avg: +6.0%, Real: +2.8%.
Grocery- These stores depend on frequent purchases, so except for the binge buying in 2020, their changes are usually less radical. Actual $ are +8.3% from February and up monthly and Ytd vs 22, 21 & 19. However, inflation hit them hard. Real $ are down vs 21 and only 14% of the growth since 2019 is real. Growth: 2.8%; Avg 19>24: +5.7%, Real: +0.9%.
Health/Drug Stores – Many stores are essential, but consumers visit less frequently than Grocery stores. $ are +5.4% from Feb. Actual $ are down vs Mar 23 and real $ are down vs Mar 23 & 21. Inflation has been low so 66% of their 27% growth from 2019 is real. Note: Their growth is now below the 19>24 avg. Growth: 3.6%; Avg 19>24: +4.9%, Real: +3.3%
Clothing and Accessories – Clothes initially mattered less when you stayed home. That changed in March 21 with strong growth through 2022. Sales are up 15.4% from February and positive in all comparisons, actual & real vs 22, 21 & 19 except real sales vs Mar 21. Plus, 70% of their 19>24 growth is real. Growth: 3.4%; Avg 19>24: +3.8%, Real:+2.7%
Home Furnishings – In mid-2020 consumers’ focus turned to their homes and furniture became a priority. Prices are now deflating but they were high in 2022. Sales are +10.2% from January but negative in all other measurements but actual Ytd sales vs 2019. They have sold less product in 2024 than 2019. Growth: -8.4%; Avg 19>24: +2.3%, Real: -0.5%
Electronic & Appliances – This channel has many problems. Sales fell in Apr>May of 2020 and didn’t reach 2019 levels until March 21. $ are up only 3.2% from February. This small lift caused actual $ vs Mar 23 & 21 to turn negative. Other measurements are positive. Note: Their growth again exceeds the average. Growth: 1.3%; Avg 19>24: +0.6%, Real: +3.3%.
Building Material, Farm & Garden & Hardware –They truly benefited from the consumers’ focus on home. In 2022 the lift slowed as inflation grew to double digits. Prices are still deflating, and sales are up 14.6% from February but they are only positive vs 2019. Prices may be deflating but they are still high, 18.8% above 21. Real sales are negative for all but Ytd vs 21 & 19. Also, just 24% of their 19>24 sales growth is real. Growth: -5.1%; Avg 19>24: +5.6%, Real: +1.5%.
Sporting Goods, Hobby and Book Stores – Consumers turned their attention to recreation and Sporting Goods stores sales took off. Book & Hobby Stores recovered more slowly. Actual sales are +14.4% from February but down for all but Ytd vs 2019. The only positive real sales measurements are Ytd vs 23 & 19. Their inflation rate has been lower than most groups so 73% of their 29.3% growth since 2019 is real. Growth: -1.5%; Avg 19>24: +5.3%, Real: +3.9%.
All Miscellaneous Stores – Pet Stores have been a key part of the strong and growing recovery of this group. They finished 2020 at +0.9% but sales took off in March 21 and have continued to grow. Sales are +10.9% vs February and are again positive in all measurements – both actual & real. They are still 2^nd to NonStore outlets in the percentage increase vs 19 and vs 21. 73% of their 53.6% 19>24 growth is real. Growth: 4.6%; Avg 19>24: +9.0%, Real: 6.8%.
NonStore Retailers – 90% of their $ comes from Internet/Mail Order/TV. The pandemic accelerated online spending. They ended 2020 +21.4%. The growth continued in 2021 as sales exceeded $100B for the 1^st time and they broke the $1 Trillion barrier. $ales are +6.4% from February. Their YOY growth fell to +5.6% in Mar 24, 44% below average, but they are positive in all measurements. 81% of their 106.5% 2019>24 growth is real. Growth: 8.7%; Avg: +15.6%, Real: +13.3%

Note: Almost without exception, online sales by brick ‘n mortar retailers are recorded with their regular store sales.

Recap – The Retail recovery from the pandemic was largely driven by Relevant Retail and by the end of 2021 it had become very widespread. In 2022, there was a new challenge, the worst inflation in 40 years. Overall, inflation has slowed considerably from its June 22 peak, which has helped the Retail Situation. As expected, Sales grew from February. However, the lift was below average for most channels. The YOY monthly increase is also slowing. The Relevant Retail lift vs Mar 23 was 36% below its average 4.9% increase and 6 of 11 channels actually had a decrease. Among the 5 with increases, only SupCtr/$ Stores had a double-digit lift over 23. Inflation is low and now slightly deflating in most channels. However, we are still seeing the impact of high cumulative inflation. Only a few channels are doing well. The slowing of the YOY sales increase has become the biggest problem. In March, only SupCtr/Club/$ & Electronics had a Ytd lift above their 19>24 Avg, down from 3 in February, which was still bad. Relevant Retail is now really down Ytd vs 21, after 4 straight months of all positives. The recovery has definitely slowed.

Monthly YOY CPI changes of 0.2% or more are highlighted. (Green = lower; Pink = higher)

I’m sure that this list raises some questions. Here are some answers to some of the more obvious ones.

Why is the group for Non-store different from the Internet?
1. Non-store is not all internet. It also includes Fuel Oil Dealers, the non-motor fuel Energy Commodity.
Why is there no Food at home included in Non-store or Internet?
1. Online Grocery purchasing is becoming popular but almost all is from companies whose major business is brick ‘n mortar. These online sales are recorded under their primary channel.
6 Channels have the same CPI aggregate but represent a variety of business types.
1. They also have a wide range of product types. Rather than try to build aggregates of a multitude of small expenditure categories, it seemed better to eliminate the biggest, influential groups that they don’t sell. This method is not perfect, but it is certainly closer than any existing aggregate.
Why are Grocery and Supermarkets only tied to the Grocery CPI?
1. According to the Economic Census, 76% of their sales comes from Grocery products. Grocery Products are the driver. The balance of their sales comes from a collection of a multitude of categories.
What about Drug/Health Stores only being tied to Medical Commodities.
1. An answer similar to the one for Grocery/Supermarkets. However, in this case Medical Commodities account for over 80% of these stores’ total sales.
Why do SuperCtrs/Clubs and $ Stores have the same CPI?
1. While the Big Stores sell much more fresh groceries, Groceries account for ¼ of $ Store sales. Both Channels generally offer most of the same product categories, but the actual product mix is different.