Retail Channel $ Update – March Monthly & April Advance

/in /by

In April, the Commodities CPI fell to -0.2% from 0.05% and Total Retail sales were +5.2% vs 24, 11.3% above their average April Lift. The Relevant Retail CPI slowed to 0.6% from 0.7% and sales vs 24 were +5.3%, 13.2% above average. There are other factors currently impacting sales, including high cumulative inflation and pre-tarifflation binge buying. The situation is complex but in regard to the size of YOY sales lifts vs 24, April is better than March.

It is also time for the annual adjustment of the survey by the Census Bureau. There are 2 big changes. Non-employer companies (about 1.8% of Retail $) were removed to match other reports like the Economic Census. This is minor but widespread, affecting data back to 1992. The other change is more visible. The NAICS code for Discount Department Stores has been discontinued. In recent years they have added a significant amount of grocery items to their stores so they are now classified as Club/SuperCtrs. This became effective in 2013. From 1992>2012, they are listed as Department Stores. I have revised my entire 1992>2025 monthly sales by channel database to reflect all changes.

The layout of my report is unchanged. We will begin with the Census Bureau’s March Monthly Report and then go to their April Advance Report. Our focus is still comparing to last year but also 21 & 19. We’ll show both actual and the “real” change in sales as we factor inflation into the data. Note: There is 1 change in the methodology for determining 92>24 Avg $ales lifts. I now use the POWER function.

Both reports include the following:

  • Total Retail, Restaurants, Auto, Gas Stations and Relevant Retail (removing Restaurants, Auto and Gas)
  • Individual Channel Data – This is more detailed in the Monthly reports, and we’ll focus on Pet Relevant Channels.

The data will be presented in detailed charts to facilitate visual comparison between groups/channels. The charts will show 11 separate measurements. To save space they will be displayed in a stacked bar format for the channel charts.

  • Current Month change – % & $ vs previous month
  • Current Month change – % & $ vs same month last year and vs 2021.
    • Current Month Real change vs last year and vs 2021 – % factoring in inflation
  • Current Ytd change – % & $ for this year vs last year, 2021 & 2019.
    • Current Ytd Real change % for this year vs last year and vs 2021 and 2019
  • Monthly & Ytd $ & CPIs for this year vs last year and vs 2021 which are targeted by channel will also be shown. (CPI Details are at the end of the report)

First, the March Monthly. All Big Groups were up from February but there were 2 actual YOY sales drops, Gas Stations vs 24. We should note that they are selling less product than in 21 & 19. 3 groups are “all positive”. There were none in February. Relevant Retail has been all positive in 12 of the last 16 months and in 8 of the last 10. ($ are Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Primarily due to the annual adjustment, the March Monthly is $10.2B less than the Advance report. Restaurants: -$0.3B; Auto: -$2.3B; Gas Stations: -$0.1B; Relevant Retail: -$7.5B. All big groups were up double digits from February. A Feb>Mar increase in Total Retail  has happened in every year but 2020 since 1992. Plus, the 15.3% lift was 14.6% bigger than the 13.3% average. There were only 2 YOY drops in actual sales vs 5 in February. There were also only 5 “real” sales drops (8 in Feb) and 3 groups were “all positive” (None in Feb). Restaurants still have the biggest increases vs 21 & 19 but Relevant Retail stayed at the top of “real” performance vs 2019. However, only 54% of their growth is real.

Now, let’s see how some Key Pet Relevant channels did in March (82% of Mar Ytd Rel Retl $)

Overall– All 11 were up from February. Vs Mar 24, 8 were actually and 7 “really” up. Vs Mar 21, 7 were up but only 4 were real increases. Vs 2019, The only negatives were Off/Gift/Souv & Dept Strs. Both were actually & really down.

  • Building Material Stores – The pandemic focus on home has produced sales growth of 33.5% since 2019. Prices for the Bldg/Matl group have inflated 18.7% from 21 and 21.9% from 2019 which is having an impact. Sales vs February were +23.9% for HomeCtr/Hdwe and +40.1% for Farm Stores. Vs other years, actual $ are only down monthly vs 21 for both & Ytd vs 24 for Home/Hdw. In Real $, both are down vs 21 and Home/Hdw is also down Ytd vs 24. Plus, only 22% of the Bldg Materials group’s 19>25 lift was real. Avg 19>25 Growth: HomeCtr/Hdwe: 4.2%, Real: 0.8%; Farm: 5.9%, Real: 2.4%
  • Food & Drug – Both are truly essential. Except for the pandemic food binge buying, they tend to have smaller changes in $. In terms of inflation, the Grocery rate is now 2.4 times higher than the rate for Drug/Med products. Drug Stores are positive in all measurements and 66% of their 2019>25 growth is real. Supermarkets’ actual $ are up in all comparisons. They are only “really” down monthly vs 2024 & 2021 and Ytd vs 2021. However, only 11.5% of their 19>25 increase is real growth. Avg 19>25 Growth: Supermarkets: +5.0%, Real: +0.6%; Drug Stores: +5.1%, Real: +3.5%.
  • Sporting Goods Stores – They also benefited from the pandemic in that consumers turned to self-entertainment, especially sports & outdoor activities. Sales are up +33.2% from February, but their only positives are vs 2019 & real vs Mar 24. Prices are still deflating, -5.0% vs 24. Deflation started in April 23 and is a big change from +1.1% in 22>23 and +7.9% in 21>22. The caused 74.7% of their 36.8% lift since 19 to be real. Avg 19>25 Growth Rate is: +5.4%; Real: +4.1%.
  • Gen Mdse Stores – All sales but real vs Mar 24 were up for Club/SupCtrs. $ Stores are actually & really down Monthly & Ytd vs 24 and really vs Mar 21. Department Stores are only actually up Ytd vs 21. Actual sales are -28.6% from 19, so negative growth for them – both actual & real. The other channels have an average of 44.6% in real growth. Avg 19>25 Growth: SupCtr/Club: 5.3%, Real: 2.5%; $/Value Strs: +5.3%, Real: +2.5%; Dept. Strs: -5.4%, Real: -7.0%.
  • Office, Gift & Souvenir Stores – After 2 consecutive monthly drops, sales grew +19.2% from February. However, they are still actually & really down Ytd vs 2019 & really down monthly & Ytd vs 21. Their recovery started late, but their progress may be slowly restarting again. Avg Growth Rate: -0.3%, Real: -1.9%
  • Internet/Mail Order – Sales are +10.3% from February and set a new March record of $112.0B. All measurements are positive, but their YOY growth, +6.8%, is only 46% of their average since 2019. However, 83.6% of their 130.7% growth since 2019 is real. Avg Growth: +14.9%, Real: +13.1%. As expected, they are by far the growth leader since 2019.
  • A/O Miscellaneous – Pet Stores are 22>24% of total $. In May 2020 they began their recovery which reached $100B for the first time in 2021. In 2022 their sales dipped in January, July, Sept>Nov, rose in December, fell in Jan>Feb 23, grew Mar>May, fell Jun>Aug, rose Sep>Nov, fell Dec>Jan 24, grew Feb>May, fell Jun>Sep, grew Oct, fell Nov, rose Dec, fell Jan>Feb, then grew in Mar. All measurements are again positive and they are in 2nd place, behind the Internet, in the % increase vs 19 and vs 21. Also, 79% of their 76.9% growth since 2019 is real. Average 19>25 Growth: 10.0%, Real: +8.2%

March had its usual lift vs February, but the Relevant Retail lift was only 1% above avg. All big & small channels were up. The YOY March lift was 18% below avg for Relevant Retl and $ were down for 3 smaller channels and 1 big group. Prices are deflating in 7 channels (5 in Feb) but cumulative inflation still impacts sales as only 4 channels were really up vs Mar 21. The Retail Recovery is still slow. The March commodities CPI was 0.05% but dropped to -0.2% in April. Let’s see if it impacts Retail.

Mar>Apr sales were down for Total, Restaurants & Auto. A Mar>Apr Total Retail drop has happened 85% of the time since 1992 but the 0.6% drop is 65% less than average. There were 2 YOY $ drops, the same as March. $ for all Big Groups but Gas Stations were up vs Apr 24 and the Total Retail lift of 5.2% vs Apr 24 was 11% above their +4.7% 92>24 avg. The Relevant Retail 5.3% increase vs 24 was also above their +4.7% avg (+13.2%). Inflation is still a factor. The CPI for all commodities fell to  -0.2% but it is still 16.7% vs 21. The inflation surge was beginning to accelerate back then (+6.8%). There is some other good “real” news. 4 “real” measurements were down compared to 5 in March. Also, like March, 3 Big Groups were all positive. Relevant Retail has been all positive in 9 of the last 11 months.

Overall Inflation Reality– The Total Retail CPI fell to -0.2% and the $ lift vs 24 was 11% above avg. The Restaurant CPI stayed at +3.8% but their sales lift was 23% above avg. Gas prices fell to -11.7% but they are still in turmoil. Auto inflation rose to 0.8% and it is +14.6% vs 21. Auto sales grew 8.6% vs 24 (97% above avg – pre-tariff buying). Inflation slowed to 0.6% for Relevant Retail. Their YOY lift was 13% above avg and they are again all positive. Slow progress continues.

Total Retail – Since Jun 20, every month but Apr 23, Jun 24 & Feb 25 has set a monthly $ales record. In 2023>24, Sales were on a roller coaster. Up Jul>Aug, down Sept, up Oct>Dec, down Jan 24, up Feb>Mar, down April, up May, down Jun, up Jul>Aug, down in Sep, up Oct>Dec, down Jan>Feb 25, up in Mar, then down in Apr. Prices are -0.2% and YOY sales vs 24 are +5.2%, 11% above the 92>24 avg change of +4.7%. 43.5% of the 19>25 growth is real. Prices are deflating but cumulative inflation and pre-tariff buying are still impacting sales. Growth: 24>25: 3.8%; Avg 19>25: +6.4%, Real: +3.0%.

Restaurants – They were hit hard by the pandemic and didn’t begin recovery until March 2021. However, they have had strong growth since then, exceeding $1T for the 1st time in 2023. April $ are up vs 24 and they have the biggest lifts vs 21 & 19. Inflation was stable at 3.8% but is now +25.4% vs 21 and +30.5% vs 19. Their 6.9% YOY lift is 23.4% above their +5.6% 92>24 avg. They are all positive again, but just 36.4% of their 58.2% growth since 2019 is real. They are 3rd in performance behind Relevant & Total Retail. Recovery started late but inflation started early. Growth: 4.6%; Avg 19>25: +7.9%, Real: +3.2%. They just account for 13.7% of Total Retail $, but their strong growth has helped Total Retail.

Auto (Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers) – They worked to overcome the stay-at-home attitude with great deals and advertising. They finished 2020 up 1% vs 2019 and hit a record $1.48T in 2021 but much of it was due to skyrocketing inflation. In 22, sales got on a rollercoaster. Inflation started to drop mid-year, but it caused 4 down months in actual $. Their YE real 2022 sales numbers were even worse, -8.2% vs 21 and -8.9% vs 19. 2023 started a true sales rollercoaster but the $ hit a record, $1.595T. $ fell in Jan 24, grew Feb>Mar, fell Apr, grew May, fell June, grew Jul>Aug, fell Sep, grew Oct, fell Nov, grew Dec, fell Jan>Feb 25, grew in Mar, then fell in Apr. April $ were +8.6% vs 24. (97% above avg – pre-tariff buying). Only real $ vs 21 are negative, but just 32.9% of 19>25 growth is real. Growth: 5.9%; Avg 19>25: +5.9%, Real: +2.1%

Gas Stations – Gas Stations were hit hard by “stay at home”. They started recovery in Mar 21 and inflation began. Sales got on a rollercoaster in 22 but set a record, $583B. Inflation started to slow in Aug 22 and prices slightly deflated in Dec & Feb 23, then strongly fell in Mar>Jul to -20.2%. In Aug they rose to -3.7%. In Sep they were +2.7% but began deflating to -4.2% in Feb 24. In Mar>May 24 their $ grew, fell June, rose July, fell Aug>Dec, rose Jan 25, then fell Feb>Apr. In Apr, $ are -6.5% vs 24 (4.9% avg) and only up vs Apr & Ytd 21 & 19. Real sales are down Ytd vs 21 & 19. Growth: -3.5%; Avg 19>25: +3.5%, Real: -0.4%. They show the cumulative impact of inflation and how deflation can be both positive and negative.

Relevant Retail – Less Auto, Gas and Restaurants – They account for ≈60% of Total Retail $ in a variety of channels, so they took many different paths through the pandemic. Their only down month until Feb 25 was April 2020, and they led the way in Total Retail’s recovery. Sales got on a roller coaster in 2022, but all months set new records with December reaching a new all-time high, $481B, and an annual record of $4.81T. In 2023, the roller coaster continued. A December lift set a new monthly record of $494.7B & an annual record of $4.997T. Sales fell Jan>Feb 24, rose in Mar, fell in Apr, rose in May, fell in June, rose Jul>Aug, fell Sep, rose Oct>Jan 25, fell in Feb, then rose Mar>Apr. The Apr 5.3% YOY lift is 13% above their 92>24 avg of +4.7%. They are all positive again and 54% of their 47.1% 19>25 growth is real – #1 in performance. Growth: 3.9%; Avg 19>25: +6.6%, Real: +3.8%. In 2024 their inflation rate dropped from 3.2% to 0.1%, stabilized at 0.5% Dec>Jan, rose to 0.7% in March, then slowed to 0.6% in April. Inflation is low but its cumulative impact can slow growth. We saw this in Feb>Mar. In April we saw some pre-tarifflation fear buying. We’ll see what happens next.

YOY inflation has slowed, but cumulative & impending lifts can affect sales. In April, 2 actual YOY $ comparisons were negative, the same as March. In April, there were 4 real drops, down from 5 in March. In March, Gas Stations were down vs 24 and only Restaurants & Auto had above avg lifts. In April, Gas Stations were again down but the YOY lifts for all other Big Groups were above avg. Also in April, 3 big groups were again all positive. Relevant Retail has now been all positive in 9 of the last 11 months. March was pretty good. April was better in some ways, but the recovery is still slow.

Here’s a more detailed look at April by Key Channels (98% of Apr Ytd Rel Retl $)

  • Relevant Retail: Growth: +3.9%; Avg 19>25: +6.6%, Real: +3.8%. Only 2 were up from March. Vs Apr 24: 10 were up, Real: 10, Vs Apr 21: 6 were up, Real: 5. Vs 19: Only Dept Stores were down – both actually & really.
  • All Department Stores – This group was struggling before the pandemic hit them hard. They began recovery in March 2021. Sales are +2.8% from March but only their actual Ytd numbers vs 21 are positive. Their -0.3% Apr YOY drop is 15 times better than their -4.5% avg decrease. Growth: -2.1%; Avg 19>25: -5.4%, Real: -7.0%.
  • Club/SuprCtr/$- They fueled a big part of the recovery because they focus on value which has broad consumer appeal. $ales are -2.1% from March, but they are positive in all measurements. However, only 43.9% of their 35.8% 19>25 lift is real. Their 5.4% YOY Apr lift is -34% below their 92>24 avg of +8.2%. Growth: 2.7%; Avg 19>25: +5.2%, Real: +2.5%.
  • Grocery- They depend on frequent purchases so their changes are usually less radical. Actual $ are -1.1% from March but positive in all actual comparisons. Cumulative inflation has hit them hard as real $ are down vs 21 and only 10% of 19>25 growth is real. However, their 5.5% YOY April lift is 82% above avg. Growth: 3.0%; Avg 19>25: +4.9%, Real: +0.5%.
  • Health/Drug Stores – Many stores are essential, but consumers visit less frequently than Grocery stores. $ are -0.9% from March but they are positive in all comparisons. Inflation has been relatively low so 66% of their 33.4% 19>25 growth is real. Their +8.8% YOY lift vs Apr 24 is 76% above avg. Growth: 6.5%; Avg 19>25: +4.9%, Real: +3.4%
  • Clothing and Accessories – Clothes mattered less when you stayed home. That changed in March 2021 with strong growth through 2022. Actual Sales are -1.8% from March, but they are only really down vs Apr 21. 66% of their 19>25 growth is real. $ are +5.9% vs Apr 24, double the avg lift (pre-tariff buying). Growth: 3.1%; Avg 19>25: +2.9%, Real: +1.9%
  • Home Furnishings – In mid-2020 consumers’ focus turned to their homes and furniture became a priority. Prices are still deflating but they were high in 22. $ are -3.3% from March but are only actually & really down monthly & Ytd vs 21. Only 27% of their 19>25 growth is real. YOY Apr lift: +7.7%, 150% above average (more prre-tariff buying). Growth: 6.2%; Avg 19>25: +3.1%, Real: +0.9%
  • Electronic & Appliances – This channel has had many issues. Sales fell in Apr>May of 2020 and didn’t reach 2019 levels until March 21. $ are -5.0% from March but they are only actually down vs Apr 21 & Ytd vs 24. Their strong deflation shows in high real numbers. Sales are +0.4% vs Apr 24, -81% below avg. Growth: -1.9%; Avg 19>25: +0.4%, Real: +3.6%.
  • Building Material, Farm & Garden & Hardware – They truly benefited from the consumers’ focus on home. In 2022 the lift slowed as inflation grew to double digits. Prices turned up in April but sales are +14.0% from March. Actual $ are only down vs Apr 21. Real sales are only down vs Apr 21 and Ytd vs 21. However, just 23.5% of their 19>25 sales growth is real. YOY sales vs Apr 24 were +1.9%, -56% below avg. Growth: 0.3%; Avg 19>25: +4.6%, Real: +1.2%.
  • Sporting Goods, Hobby and Book Stores – Consumers turned their attention to recreation and Sporting Goods stores sales took off. Book & Hobby Stores recovered more slowly. They have been on a sales rollercoaster since June 24 and $ are -5.7% from March. Actual & real sales are only up vs Apr 24 & 19. Real Ytd sales vs 24 are also up. 84% of their 19>25 growth is real. YOY Sales vs Apr 24 are +3.4%, 12% above avg. Growth: -1.0%; Avg 19>25: +3.9%, Real: +3.4%.
  • All Miscellaneous Stores – Pet Stores have been a key part of the strong and growing recovery of this group. They finished 2020 at +0.9% but sales took off in March 21 and have continued to grow. Sales are -0.2% vs March but positive in all comparisons. They are 2nd in the % increases vs 19 & vs 21 and 73.2% of their 53.3% 19>25 growth is real. Plus, their 5.1% YOY Apr lift is 17% more than their 92>24 avg of +4.4%. Growth: +6.2%; Avg 19>25: +7.4%, Real: 5.6%.
  • NonStore Retailers – 90% of their $ comes from Internet/Mail Order/TV. The pandemic accelerated online spending. They ended 2020 +21.4%. The growth continued in 2021 as sales exceeded $100B for the 1st time and they broke the $1 Trillion barrier. $ are -0.4% from March and their YOY lift of 5.5% vs Apr 24 is -46% below their 10.2% avg. However, they are positive in all comparisons and 82% of their 116.0% 19>25 growth is real. Growth: 6.1%; Avg 19>25: +13.7%, Real: +11.8%.

Note: Almost without exception, online sales by brick ‘n mortar retailers are recorded with their regular store sales.

Recap – The Retail recovery from the pandemic was largely driven by Relevant Retail and by the end of 2021 it had become very widespread. In 2022, there was a new challenge, the worst inflation in 40 years. Overall, inflation has slowed considerably from its June 22 peak and 7 channels, doing 44% of Relevant Retail’s 2025 $, are currently deflating (the same # as Mar). Any deflation can help the Retail situation. As expected, $ fell from March for 9 channels but the drops were usually smaller than average so the big lift for Bldg/Farm was enough to push Relevant Retail to +0.2% – a true rarity (avg chge: -1.1%). Their 5.3% lift vs April 24 was also above avg, +13.2%. 10 of 11 smaller channels had a $ increase vs 24 and 6 were above avg, up from 5 in March. Also, in both March & April, 3 big groups but only 4 Advance smaller channels were actually and really “all positive”. Relevant Retail has now been all positive in 9 of the last 11 months. The biggest concern is still YOY drops and smaller lifts. Monthly, the situation is improving. The YOY lifts vs Apr 24 for Relevant Retail and 6 of 11 smaller channels (41% of Relevant Retail’s 2025 $) were above their 92>24 average. However, ytd vs 24 the Relevant Retail lift is -18% below avg and only 3 smaller channels were above avg. The Retail recovery still has a way to go.

Finally, here are the details and updated inflation rates for the CPIs used to calculate the impact of inflation on retail groups and channels. This includes special aggregate CPIs created with the instruction and guidance of personnel from the US BLS. I also researched data from the last Economic Census to review the share of sales by product category for the various channels to help in selecting what expenditures to include in specific aggregates. Of course, none of these specially created aggregates are 100% accurate but they are much closer than the overall CPI or available aggregates. The data also includes the CPI changes vs 2021 to show cumulative inflation.

Monthly YOY CPI changes of 0.2% or more are highlighted. (Green = lower; Pink = higher)

Here are some answers to some obvious questions. Note: Overall Inflation slowed but Bldg/Farm had a significant lift.

  1. Why is the group for Non-store different from the Internet?
    • Non-store is not all internet. It also includes Fuel Oil Dealers, the non-motor fuel Energy Commodity.
  2. Why is there no Food at home included in Non-store or Internet?
    • Online Grocery purchasing is becoming popular but almost all is from companies whose major business is brick ‘n mortar. These online sales are recorded under their primary channel.
  3. 5 Channels have the same CPI aggregate but represent a variety of business types.
    • They also have a wide range of product types. Rather than try to build aggregates of a multitude of small expenditure categories, it seemed better to eliminate the biggest, influential groups that they don’t sell. This method is not perfect, but it is certainly closer than any existing aggregate.
  4. Why are Grocery and Supermarkets only tied to the Grocery CPI?
    • According to the Economic Census, 76% of their sales comes from Grocery products. Grocery Products are the driver. The balance of their sales comes from a collection of a multitude of categories.
  5. What about Drug/Health Stores only being tied to Medical Commodities.
    • An answer similar to the one for Grocery/Supermarkets. However, in this case Medical Commodities account for over 80% of these stores’ total sales.
  6. Why do SuperCtrs/Clubs and $ Stores have the same CPI?
    • While the Big Stores sell much more fresh groceries, Groceries account for ¼ of $ Store sales. Both Channels generally offer most of the same product categories, but the actual product mix is different.