Petflation 2025 – May Update: Moves Up to +2.2% vs Last Year

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The monthly Consumer Price Index peaked back in June 2022 at 9.1% then began to slow until it turned up in Jul/Aug 2023. Prices fell in Oct>Dec 23, then turned up Jan>Oct 24 but fell -0.1% in Nov. However, they have now risen for 6 straight months, including a 0.2% lift in May to a new record high. The CPI vs 24 also increased to +2.4% from +2.3% in April. Grocery prices rose 0.2% from April and YOY inflation grew from 2.0% to 2.2%. Even minor price changes can affect consumer pet spending, especially in the discretionary pet segments, so we will continue to publish monthly reports to track petflation as it evolves in the market.

Petflation was +4.1% in Dec 21 while the overall CPI was +7.0%. The gap narrowed as Petflation accelerated and reached 96.7% of the national rate in June 22. National inflation has slowed considerably since then, but Petflation generally increased until June 23. It passed the CPI in July 22 but fell below it from Apr>Jul 24. It exceeded the CPI in August, fell below in Sep>Oct, rose above in Nov, then fell below in Dec>May 25. As we drill into the data, all reports will include:

  • A rolling 24 month tracking of the CPI for all pet segments and the national CPI. The base number will be pre-pandemic December 2019 in this and future reports, which will facilitate comparisons.
  • Monthly comparisons of 25 vs 24 which will include Pet Segments and relevant Human spending categories. Plus
    1. CPI change from the previous month.
    2. Inflation changes for recent years (23>24, 22>23, 21>22, 20>21, 19>20, 18>19)
    3. Total Inflation for the current month in 2025 vs 2019 and vs 2021 to see the full inflation surge.
    4. Average annual Year Over Year inflation rate from 2019 to 2025
  • YTD comparisons
    1. YTD numbers for the monthly comparisons #2>4 above

In our first graph we will track the monthly change in prices for the 24 months from May 23 to May 25. We will use December 2019 as a base number so we can track the progress from pre-pandemic times through an eventual recovery. This chart is designed to give you a visual image of the flow of pricing. You can see the similarities and differences in segment patterns and compare them to the overall U.S. CPI. The year-end numbers from 12 and 24 months earlier are included. We also included and highlighted (pink) the cumulative price peak for each segment. In May, Pet prices were up 0.5% from Apr. All were up – Food (+0.01%); Vet (+0.5%); Services (+1.1%); Supplies (+0.5%)

In May 23, the CPI was +18.3% and Pet was +21.9%. The Services segments inflated after mid-20, while Product inflation stayed low until late 21. In 22, Food prices grew but the others had mixed patterns until July 22, when all rose. In Aug>Oct Petflation took off. In Nov>Dec, Services & Food inflated while Vet & Supplies prices stabilized. In Jan>Apr 23, prices grew every month for all segments except for 1 Supplies dip. In May Product prices grew while Services slowed. In Jun/Jul this reversed. In Aug all but Services fell. In Sep/Oct this flipped. In Nov, all but Food & Vet fell. In Dec, Supp. & Vet  drove prices up. In Jan>Mar 24 prices grew. In April, prices in all but Vet fell. In May, all but Food grew. In June, Products drove a lift. In July, all but Services fell. In Aug, Food drove a drop. In Sep, Products fueled a drop. Services drove a lift in Oct. In Nov, all were up. After the drop in March 25, all but Food reached record highs in April & May.

  • U.S. CPI – The inflation rate was below 2% through 2020. It turned up in January 21 and continued to grow until flattening out in Jul>Dec 22. Prices rose Jan>Sep 23, fell Oct>Dec, rose Jan>Oct 24, fell Nov, then rose Dec>May to a record high but 27.1% of the increase since Dec 19 happened from Jan>Jun 22 – 9.2% of the time.
  • Pet Food – Prices were at the Dec 19 level Apr 20>Sep 21. They grew & peaked May 23. Jun>Aug ↓, Sep>Nov↑, Dec>Feb↓, Mar↑, Apr>May↓, June↑, Jul>Oct↓, Nov↑, Dec↓, Jan>Feb↑, Mar>May↓. 99% of the lift occurred in 22/23.
  • Pet Supplies – Supplies prices were high in Dec 19 due to tariffs. They had a deflated rollercoaster ride until mid-21 when they returned to Dec 19 prices & essentially stayed there until 22. They turned up in Jan 22 and hit a record high. They plateaued Feb>May, grew in June, flattened in July, then turned up in Aug>Oct to a new record. Prices stabilized in Nov>Dec but grew in Jan>Feb 23. They fell in Mar, but the rollercoaster continued with Dec>Feb↑, Mar/Apr↓, May/Jun↑, July↓, Aug↑, Sep/Oct↓ & Nov/Dec↑, Jan>Feb 25↓, Mar>May↑ to a new record high.
  • Pet Services– Inflation is usually 2+%. Perhaps due to closures, prices increased at a lower rate in 2020. In 2021 consumer demand increased but with fewer outlets. Inflation grew in 21 with the biggest lift in Jan>Apr. Inflation was strong in 22 but prices got on a rollercoaster in Mar>Jun. They turned up Jul>Apr 23 but prices fell in May. Jun>Aug↑, Sep>Dec↓, Jan>Mar 24↑, Apr↓, May↑, June↓, Jul>Nov↑, Dec>Mar 25↓, Apr>May↑, a record!
  • Veterinary – Inflation has been consistent. Prices turned up in Mar 20 and grew through 21. A surge began in Dec 21 which put them above the overall CPI. In May 22 prices fell and stabilized in June causing them to fall below the CPI. However, prices rose again and despite some dips they have stayed above the CPI since July 22. In 23>24 prices grew Jan>May, leveled Jun/Jul, fell Aug, grew Sep>Dec, fell Jan 24, grew Feb>May, fell Jun>Jul, then grew Aug>May 25.
  • Total Pet – Petflation is a sum of the segments. In Dec 21 the price surge began. In Mar>Jun 22 the segments had ups & downs, but Petflation grew again from Jul>Nov. It slowed in Dec, grew Jan>May 23 (peak), fell Jun>Aug, grew Sep/Oct, then fell in Nov. In December prices turned up and grew through Mar 24 to a record high. Prices fell in April, rose May>Jun, fell Jul>Sep, rose Oct>Nov, fell in Dec, rose Jan>Feb, fell Mar, then set records in Apr>May.

Next, we’ll turn our attention to the Year Over Year inflation rate change for May and compare it to last month, last year and to previous years. We will also show total inflation from 21>25 & 19>25. Petflation rose from 1.9% to 2.2% but it is still below the National inflation rate (only by -8.3%). The chart will allow you to compare the inflation rates of 24>25 to 23>24 and other years but also see how much of the total inflation since 2019 came from the current pricing surge. We’ve included some human categories to put the pet numbers into perspective.

Overall, prices were up 0.2% from April and were +2.4% vs May 24, up from +2.3% last month. Grocery inflation grew to 2.2% from 2.0%. None had price decreases from last month, down from 2 in April & 3 in March. There were also 2 drops in Oct/Nov but 3 in Aug/Sep/Dec/Mar and 5 back in July. The national YOY monthly CPI rate of 2.4% is up from 2.3%, but 27.3% below the 23>24 rate and 72% less than 21>22. The 24>25 rate is above 23>24 for 4 – Groceries & 3 Pet – Supplies, Food & Total. In our 2021>2025 measurement you also can see that over 75% of the cumulative inflation since 2019 has occurred in 6 segments, 4 are Pet – all but Services, plus Groceries & the CPI. Except for Pet & Vet Services, where prices have surged, Service Segments have generally had higher inflation rates so there was a smaller pricing lift in the recent surge. Pet Products have a very different pattern. The 21>25 inflation surge actually provided 102% of their overall inflation since 2019. This happened because Pet Products prices in 2021 were starting to recover from a deflationary period. Services expenditures account for 63.8% of the National CPI so they are very influential. Their current CPI is +3.7% while the CPI for Commodities is -0.1%. This shows that Services are driving all of the current 2.4% inflation. The situation in Pet is similar but products have a bigger share of $. Petflation is 2.2%. The combined CPI for the Service Segments is 4.9%, while the Pet Products CPI is 0.2%.

  • U.S. CPI– Prices are +0.2% from Apr. The YOY increase is 2.4%, up from 2.3%. It peaked at +9.1% back in June 2022. The targeted inflation rate is <2% so we are still 20+% higher than the target. The Apr/May lifts follow Feb/Mar drops, 4 straight lifts and 6 consecutive drops from Apr>Sep 24. The current rate is below 23>24 but the 21>25 rate is still +19.4%, 76.1% of the total inflation since 2019. The Inflation surge took off in April 2021, +4.2%, up from 2.6%.
  • Pet Food– Prices are +0.01% vs Apr and -0.5% vs May 24. Deflation slowed from -0.6% in Apr. However, they are still far below the Food at Home inflation rate of +2.2%. The YOY Pet Food CPI has now deflated in 14 of the last 15 months. The 2021>2025 inflation surge has generated 99.1% of the 22.4% inflation since 2019. Inflation began for Pet Food in June 2021, +0.9%, after 12 straight deflationary months.
  • Food at Home – Prices are +0.2% from Apr, and the YOY increase rose to 2.2% from 2.0%. This is still radically lower than Jul>Sep 2022 when it exceeded 13%. The 29.1% Inflation for this category since 2019 is 14% more than the national CPI but only in 4th place behind 3 Services expenditures (2 Pet). 76.6% of the inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25. This is about the same as the CPI, but we should note that Grocery prices began inflating in 2020>21 then the rate accelerated. It appears that the pandemic supply chain issues in Food which contributed to higher prices started early and foreshadowed problems in other categories and the overall CPI surge.
  • Pets & Supplies– Prices were +0.5 from Apr but inflation slowed to 1.7% from 1.9%. They still have the lowest rate vs 2019. Prices were deflated for much of 20>21. As a result, the 2021>25 inflation surge accounted for 115% of the total price increase since 2019. Prices set a record in October 2022 then deflated. 3 lifts pushed them to a record high in Feb 23. Prices fell March, rose Apr/May, fell Jun>Aug, grew Sep/Oct, fell Nov, grew Dec>Feb 24, fell Mar/Apr, rose May/Jun, fell July, rose Aug, fell Sep/Oct, rose Nov/Dec, fell Jan/Feb 25, then rose Mar>May. (record high)
  • Veterinary Services– Prices are +0.5% from Apr and their YOY CPI vs 24 grew to +5.6% from +5.3%. They returned to #1 in inflation vs 24 and are still the leader since 2019 with +47.4% and since 2021, +35.4%. For Veterinary, high annual inflation is the norm. However, the rate has increased during the current surge, especially since 23. They have the highest rate in 25, and 75% of the cumulative inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25.
  • Medical Services – Prices turned sharply up at the start of the pandemic but then inflation slowed and fell to a low rate in 20>21. Prices were up +0.1% from Apr, but inflation vs 24 slowed to +3.0% from +3.1%. Medical Services are not a big part of the current surge as only 55.7% of the 18.5%, 2019>25 increase happened from 21>25.
  • Pet Services – Inflation slowed in 2020 but began to grow in 21. In 24 prices surged Jan>Mar, fell in April, rose in May, fell in June, rose Jul>Nov, fell Dec>Mar 25 to 3.9%, then grew to 5.4% in Apr, but fell to 4.9% in May. They are now #2 in YOY inflation vs 24 and vs 21 & 19. 74.2% of their total 19>25 inflation is from 21>25. In Dec 23, it was 49%.
  • Haircuts/Other Personal Services – Prices are +0.5% from Apr and +3.9% from May 24. 13 of the last 17 months have been 4.0+%. Inflation has been pretty consistent. 66.6% of the 19>25 inflation happened 21>25.
  • Total Pet– Petflation rose to 2.2% from 1.9%. Only Food & Veterinary had higher rates but all, but food reached a record high price in May. 2.2% is 37.5% more than the 23>24 rate but 8.3% below the U.S. CPI. Plus, 2.2% is 29% below the average May Pet rate since 1997. May prices rose 5%, driven by all segments. A Apr>May decrease has happened only 5 times since 1997 (avg Chge: +0.2%, 60% less than 2025). The Pet CPI rose from 1.9% to 2.2% a 15.8% increase. A big factor in the 25 CPI lift was that prices only rose 0.15% in Apr>May 24, compared to 0.5% in 25. In 2025, we continue to move towards more normal spending patterns.

Now, let’s look at the YTD numbers.

The 24>25 rate is lower than 23>24 for all but Medical Services, Pet Supplies, Groceries & Haircuts. The 22>23 inflation rate was the highest for all pet categories but Supplies. 21>22 has the highest rate for Pet Supplies, Groceries, Haircuts and the National CPI. The average national inflation in the 6 years since 2019 is 3.9%. Only 3 of the categories are below that rate – Medical Services (2.9%), Pet Supplies (1.9%) and Pet Food (3.6%). It is no surprise that Veterinary Services has the highest average rate (6.6%), but all 4 other categories are +4.3% or higher.

  • U.S. CPI – The 24>25 rate is 2.6%, down 21% from 23>24, but it is down 51% from 22>23, 68.3% less than 21>22 and 33.3% below the average increase from 2019>2025. However, it’s still 68% more than the average increase from 2018>20. 80% of the 25.9% inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25. Inflation is a problem that started recently.
  • Pet Food – Ytd prices are still deflating, -0.5%, the same as Apr, but up from -1.1% in Jan. That’s a big change from 1.6% in 23>24, 14.6% in 22>23 and even the 1.9% 18>20 average. It’s even below the deflation in 20>21. Pet Food has the highest 22>23 rate but is only #5 in the 21>25 rates. Deflation in the 1st half of 2021 kept YTD prices low then they surged in 22 and especially in 23. 93% of the inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25.
  • Food at Home – The inflation rate is up from 23>24 but at 2.1%, it is down 75% from 22>23, 79% from 21>22 and even 16% less than 20>21. However, it is still 83% more than the average rate from 2018>20. It is only in 4th place for the highest inflation since 2019 but still beat the U.S. CPI by 12%. You can see the impact of supply chain issues on the Grocery category as 79% of the inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25.
  • Pets & Pet Supplies – A true roller coaster, prices rose Jan>Feb 24, fell Mar>Apr, rose May>Jun, fell July, rose Aug, fell Sep>Oct, rose Nov>Dec, fell Jan>Feb 25, then rose Mar>Apr. Prices are again inflating vs 24, but Supplies have the lowest inflation since 2019. The biggest lifts since 2019 were in 22 & 23. The 2021 deflation created an unusual situation. Prices are up 12.0% from 2019 but 113% of this lift happened from 21>25. Prices are up 13.6% from their 2021 “bottom”.
  • Veterinary Services – Inflation was high in 2019 and steadily grew until it took off in late 2022. The rate may have peaked in 2023, but it is still going strong in 2025, +6.3%, the highest on the chart. They are also #1 in inflation since 2019 and since 2021. At +6.6%, they have the highest average inflation rate since 2019. It is 1.7 times higher than the National Average but 2.3 times higher than the Inflation average for Medical Services. Strong Inflation is the norm in Veterinary Services.
  • Medical Services – Prices went up significantly at the beginning of the pandemic, but inflation slowed in 2021. In 2025 it is 3.0%, just slightly above the 2.9% 2019>25 average rate. However, it is being measured against 2024 which is 1 of only 2 years since 2019 with an inflation rate below 2.0%.
  • Pet Services – After falling in late 2023, prices surged in 2024, then fell in 2025 until an Apr>May resurgence. The 24>25 inflation rate of 4.8% is 2nd, behind Veterinary on the chart. It is only their 4th highest rate but it is 1.5 times higher than their 2018>21 average rate. Pet Services is also 2nd in both 19>25 and 21>25 inflation.
  • Haircuts & Personal Services – The services segments, essential & non-essential, were hit hardest by the pandemic. The industry responded by raising prices. 2025 inflation is 4.3%, 23% below its 21 peak, but 39% above the 18>20 average. Consumers are paying over 30% more than in 2019, which usually reduces the purchase frequency.
  • Total Pet – 2025 Petflation is 2.0%, up from 1.9% in April but 33% less than 23>24. It’s even 12% lower than the 2018>21 avg rate. Plus, it is 23% below the CPI. Petflation is still at its lowest rate since early 2021. Until April, this was driven by deflation in Pet Products and lower inflation in Services. In Apr>May, Pet prices generally turned up.

The Petflation recovery paused in Aug, came back Sep>Oct, paused in Nov, resumed in Dec>Jan, paused in Feb, restarted in Mar, but may have paused again in Apr>May. We tend to focus on monthly YOY inflation while ignoring one critical fact. Inflation is cumulative. Pet prices are 23.9% above 2021 and 28.4% higher than 2019. Those are big lifts. In fact, current May Pet prices for all but Food are the highest in history. Note: Food is within 1.5% of its record high. Only Supplies prices (+12.2%) are less than 22.4% higher than 2019. Since price/value is the biggest driver in consumer spending, inflation will affect the Pet Industry. Services will be the least impacted as it is driven by high income CUs. Veterinary will see a reduction in visit frequency. The product segments will see a more complex reaction. Supplies will likely see a reduction in purchase frequency and some Pet Parents may even downgrade their Pet Food. Products will see a strong movement to online purchasing and private label. At SZ 24 and GPE 24 & 25, a huge number of exhibitors actively offered their OEM services. We’ll likely see the same at SZ 25. Strong, cumulative inflation has a widespread impact, but tarifflation can hit even harder. Supplies would likely be the most impacted by new high tariffs. We’ll see…

INFLATION’S IMPACT ON RETAIL SALES GROWTH – APRIL 2025

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Inflation seems simple – just compare this year’s prices to the same time last year. In fact, it is more complex. The most important thing to remember is that it is cumulative so even when the YOY rate slows, it can cause a range of issues – selling less product and even a drop in revenue. One impact that is often ignored is slowed $ growth. That is the focus of this report. In order to give an accurate reading of the situation we will include charts for the Big Retail Groups and the “Advance” Relevant Retail Channels. We will also include separate charts for Monthly & Ytd data to better show trends.

First the Jan>Apr Monthly Report for Big Groups (100% of U.S. Retail $)

We also included the Y/E numbers for 2024, both actual & average, to show our goal – Beat these lifts!
There are 3 things that immediately stand out. One is expected – a BAD February. It is often the low point of the Retail year. In 2025, the lift vs 24 was -78% below avg for Relevant Retail, but Total and all other groups had drops. The big “surprise” is January. Gas Stations had their only monthly lift in 25. It was -42% below avg but all other groups had above avg lifts. A factor is that holiday spending has moved earlier. This encourages January spending. The final “stand out” is the big Mar>Apr lift in Auto. This is due to impending tariffs. People are buying now to avoid tarifflation’s high prices.

Restaurants – The February drop was small and the other 3 months had lifts above average. The lifts consistently increased reaching +6.9% in April, 23.4% above average. If they can continue their non-February performance, they will likely have a great year.

Auto – Their pattern is almost exactly the same as Restaurants but with lifts much more above average, especially in March & April. The Mar & Apr lifts were double the average. The 25% tariff was effective 4/3/25. Consumers saved thousands of dollars.

Gas Stations – They are truly in turmoil. Their only plus month was -42% below avg and all drops were bigger than 2024.

Relevant Retail – They do about 60% of Total Retail $ so it’s no surprise that they have a similar pattern. 1 big difference is that they were +1% in Feb – no drop. The Feb & Mar lifts were below avg while the Jan & Apr lifts were above. Their 23>24 lift was above Total Retail. In 25, only Feb & Apr were bigger. The chart clearly shows their Feb>Apr progress.

Total Retail – They had a drop in February, but March was basically equal to the average and Jan & Apr were slightly above average. All non-Feb months had lifts above the annual average and were 60+% more than the actual 3.0% lift in 2024. They are making progress but it is slow.

Summary: JAN: $↓: 0; ↑Avg: 4; ↓Avg: 1; FEB: $↓: 4; ↑Avg: 0; ↓Avg: 1; MAR: $↓: 1; ↑Avg: 2; ↓Avg 2; APR: $↓: 1; ↑Avg: 4; ↓Avg: 0

Now let’s take a closer look at Relevant Retail. We will report the same lift data for the 11 channels in our Advance Retail Sales report. They generate 98% of Relevant Retail $ so it is an accurate representation of this part of the Retail Market.

11 Relevant Retail Channels (98% of Ytd $)

Relevant Retail – Their +3.6% lift in 24 was -22.8% below average. No drops in 25. The lifts for February & March were below average but January & April were above average.

Furniture – No drops. Lifts were double the average in January, March and April. The big lifts in Mar>Apr were probably due to fear of skyrocketing prices from impending tariffs.

Electronics/Appliances – They have ongoing high deflation. $ Drops in both January & February. Sales turned positive in Mar>Apr but only the lift for March was above average.

Bldg Matl/Garden/Farm – They had the smallest of the 4 drops in 23>24, -0.6% but the 3rd biggest decrease in February, -6.1%. They had lifts in Jan, Mar & Apr but all were below average. This includes their normal Spring lift. The April increase was -56% below average. Cumulative 20% inflation was undoubtedly a factor.

Grocery – Sales were only +2% in 24, -36% below average but they surged in January to +5.1%, 63% above average. Growth slowed to less than 1% in Feb>Mar, over 70% below average. However, they had a strong rebound in April. Sales were +5.5% vs 24, 82% above average.

Health/Drug – Sales were +3.6% in 24, -31% below average. The lift grew slightly in Jan>Feb to 4+% but it was still about -20% below average. Sales surged in Mar>Apr to +8.8%, 73+% above average.

Clothing – They had a slow 24, +2.5%, -19% below average, but started 25 strong, +5.4%, 67% above average. Then sales fell -2.4% in February. In March the lift exceeded the average by 3% but they “took off” in April to +5.9%, more than double the average lift. Like Furniture, the big April lift was likely due to fear of impending tariffs.

Sport/Hobby/Book – They were -2.8% in 24. This trend continued in Jan>Feb, peaking at -6.4% in February. In March they turned slightly positive, +0.6% but this grew in April to +3.4%, 12% above average – a big turnaround.

Department Strs – It’s difficult to find something positive. They were -4.6% in 24 had drops Jan>Apr in 25. The biggest drop was -5.9% in February – no surprise. Sort of good news: 3 of drops were 60+% less than average.

Clubs/SupCtrs/Value/$ – They offer Brick ‘n Mortar value and the convenience of 1 stop shopping. They have had strong growth since their creation in the 80’s. COVID further accelerated growth so it is no surprise that all lifts are below avg. They even had a small -0.2% drop in February. Things slightly improved in March, +0.2%, then rose to +5.4% n April.

Miscellaneous – Pet Stores account for 15+% of this group’s sales. They had a -13% below average lift in February. All other measurements  were above average, and their lifts peaked at +8.1% in March. They have the best performance of any channel, even Furniture Stores, and they did it without the benefit of a pre-tarifflation buying surge.

Nonstore – 90% of $ are from internet/mail order (vast majority is internet). The Internet has had strong sales growth since its inception, but it skyrocketed due to COVID’s “stay at home” behavior. They have an average lift of about 10%. Their 24 lift was +8.1%. All lifts in 25 were below this and below average – no surprise. Low: Feb +5.0%; High: Mar +7.4%

SUMMARY

23>24 – Drops: 4; Below Avg Lifts: 6; Above Avg Lifts: 1

25 Jan – Drops: 3; Below Avg: 4; Above Avg: 4                 25 Feb – Drops: 6; Below Avg: 5; Above Avg: 0

25 Mar – Drops: 1; Below Avg: 5; Above Avg: 5               25 Apr – Drops: 1; Below Avg: 4; Above Avg: 6

In the above Summary, regarding Drops and Above Average lifts, green indicates the best and red is the worst. Obviously, the best month is April and the worst is February. However, the biggest positive change occurred in March. 5 channels with drops turned positive. 3 became below average and 2 above average. 3 with below average lifts moved up to above average. The classification of 3 was unchanged so 8 fueled the improvement. April was only a little better than March as 1 below average moved up. However, we should note that now more than half of the channels are above average. We also can’t forget January. There was only a slight improvement in the number of positive lifts vs Y/E 24, from 7 to 8 but the number with above average increases rose from 1 to 4 – a significant change. The situation has definitely improved since hitting bottom in February. The CPI is still low and impending tariffs have not had a significant negative impact.

Now let’s take a different view of the data from the Big Groups and the same 11 channels. Rather than monthly sales, we we look at Ytd numbers. We will still view them monthly so we can see any trends.

The Ytd numbers are arguably the most important. In December, they become Year-End, which is the most quoted and remembered data in any year. While the monthly data shows what’s happening in the marketplace right now, the Ytd data consolidates the data. This blending reduces the impact of sales spikes – positive or negative. This can be either good or bad. The impact of the big drop in February 25 was lessened by the widespread Above Average January lift. It can also work the other way. The big February drop is still reducing the positivity of strong lifts in March and April. We’ll begin our analysis with the Big Retail Groups.

The first thing that you notice is that the spending patterns for Restaurants and Relevant & Total Retail are virtually identical. All groups had January lifts and all but Gas Stations were Above Average. However, only Auto had Above Average lifts in either March or April. Also, only Gas Stations had any sales drops.

Restaurants – Sales for 24 were +5.2%, -7% below average. They flipped in January as the lift vs last year grew to +5.7%, 5.5% above average. The lift radically slowed in February to +2.4%, -57% below average. The situation steadily improved in March & April as the YOY increase grew to +4.6%, -18% below average.

Auto – Sales were +2.3% in 24, -47% below average and the worst “positive” performance of any group. They turned it around in January with a +5.8% lift, 32% above average. The lift dropped to +2.0% in February, -55.5% below average and the smallest lift of any positive big group. Thanks to pre-tarifflation buying the YOY lift took off in March & April, reaching +5.9% in April, 33% above average. As we said, they were the only Big Group with any Non-January above average lifts.

Gas Stations – Whether you look at the data monthly or Ytd, they are doing bad. The April Ytd sales drop of -3.5% is even worse than the -2.9% at Y/E 24. That does not bode well for 2025.

Relevant Retail – Except for January, +5.0%, they seem to be stuck in the 3% lift range. April Ytd, +3.9%, did finally exceed the +3.6% in 24. This is not a surprise as April had their only non-January above average monthly lift. They have made slow but steady progress since February.

Total Retail – The pattern matches Relevant Retail but the YOY changes for all but January are smaller. The averages are about the same so Total has bigger disparities. Total also includes Auto and Gas Stations which have had extreme lifts and drops. However, they are making steady progress since February and their Ytd lift has been above 24 since March.

Summary and Comparison of Monthly to Ytd

  Monthly: Drops: 6; Below Avg Lifts:  4; Above Avg Lifts: 10

         Ytd: Drops: 3; Below Avg Lifts: 11; Above Avg Lifts: 6

Mon: JAN: $↓: 0; ↓Avg: 1 ↑Avg: 4; FEB: $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 1 ↑Avg: 0; MAR: $↓: 1; ↓Avg 2 ↑Avg: 2; APR: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 0; ↑Avg: 4

Ytd: JAN: $↓: 0; ↓Avg: 1 ↑Avg: 4; FEB: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 4 ↑Avg: 0; MAR: $↓: 1; ↓Avg 3; ↑Avg: 1; APR: $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 3; ↑Avg: 1

Obviously, January  Monthly & Ytd are the same. The summary clearly shows that the Ytd report levels the Feb>Apr data. The situation doesn’t look good Ytd but both reports show that it is improving for all but Gas Stations.

Now, Let’s look at Ytd Sales for Key Relevant Retail Channels

The Ytd chart looks a little worse than the Monthly chart. It turns out that this is true. Both charts have the same number of Below Average lifts, 41% of all entries. However, the Ytd version has 27% more drops and -20% less Above Average lifts. Ytd also has 3 channels that had drops every month in 2025. Monthly has only 1. However, Ytd has 2 channels with Above Average lifts every month. Monthly has none. It’s a complex situation. Let’s get into the specifics.

Furniture Stores – They are going strong. Their huge January lift pushed the February Ytd lift from below to above avg. Now, all months are above average. Tarifflation fear caused binge buying in Mar>Apr so the current lift is double the avg.

Electronics/Appliance – Ytd they are all negative. This version hides Mar>Apr lifts. March was even 6.6% above average. The impact in the Ytd chart was that their YOY drop slowed from -5.0% in February to -1.9% in April.

Bldg Matl/Garden/Farm – Their big February drop turned March from a below average monthly lift to a -0.4% Ytd drop. Both charts show a slight improvement in April.

Grocery – Their big January lift made  their situation look significantly better in Ytd. However, it effectively hid the above average lift in April. Note: The current Ytd lift (+3.0%) is 50% above 24 Y/E and just 6% below the annual average.

Health – Both Monthly & Ytd have the same pattern – Jan>Feb, below average lifts; Mar>Apr, above avg. However, the Mar>Apr Ytd lifts are not as big as monthly – both actual and vs average.

Clothing – They had a +5.4% lift in January, 67% above avg. This eliminated the February drop in Ytd but the February drop changed Mar>Apr from above to below average in Ytd. April Ytd is 24% more than 24 & equal to the annual avg.

Sport/Hobby/Book – They had drops in Jan>Feb. Feb was -6.4%. This turned Ytd all negative. It also hid the possible start of a recovery. Mar>Apr both had monthly lifts. March was below avg but April was 12% above avg.

Department Strs – Both reports show drops every month. They have been fading for years. It continues.

Club/SupCtr/Value/$ – They offer value and convenience, the biggest shopping drivers. Some $ stores are struggling but SuperCenters are still going pretty strong. Besides the internet, one problem in sustaining strong growth is that they are running out of new customers. The Monthly report had a 0.2% drop in February and only a 0.2% lift in March. The Ytd numbers look better. There are no drops, but the April Ytd lift is only +2.7%, 68% below average.

Miscellaneous – This is probably our favorite channel because it includes pet stores. They also have great performance. In the Monthly report, the YOY lift for February was +3.6%, -13% below average. All other months are above average. The Ytd report is even better. All months are above average and April is +6.2%, 42% above average and 15% more than Y/E 24

Nonstore – They are driven by the internet which has had the strongest growth and became the biggest $ channel in 2020. The Monthly & Ytd reports have similar patterns – all months below avg. April Ytd is +6.1. That sounds great but it is -38% below average. We’re seeing that it is difficult, if not impossible to maintain double digit growth…forever.

Relevant Retail – Their $ come from a mixture of different spending patterns. They had no drops and both Monthly & Ytd show steady improvement since February. Ytd hides the Above avg April lift but it shows that the group’s performance in April now exceeds 2024…+3.9% to +3.6%. Here is a summary and comparison of Monthly to Ytd for the 11 channels.

                                                        Monthly: Drops: 11; Below Avg Lifts: 18; Above Avg Lifts: 15

                                                                 Ytd: Drops: 14; Below Avg Lifts: 18; Above Avg Lifts:  12

Mon: JA $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 4 ↑Avg: 4; FE $↓: 6; ↓Avg: 5 ↑Avg: 0; MR $↓: 1; ↓Avg 5 ↑Avg: 5; AP $↓: 1; ↓Avg: 4;↑Avg: 6

Ytd:   JA $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 4 ↑Avg: 4; FE $↓: 4; ↓Avg: 5 ↑Avg: 2; MR $↓: 4; ↓Avg 4;↑Avg: 3; AP $↓: 3; ↓Avg: 5;↑Avg: 3

The key differences between the Monthly & Ytd reports are in the extremes – drops & above avg lifts. Both views are critically important. Monthly shows what is currently happening in the marketplace and Ytd puts it into perspective. They also show trends over time. Ytd provides an overview while Monthly shows the details fueling the movement.

Inflation negatively affects retail growth both in the short term, with spikes or drops, and in the long term, with cumulative high prices. It can even have an impact before it happens. We are seeing this with pre-tarifflation “fear” buying. The current retail situation is not good. The YOY lifts vs 2024 are generally below the long term average for most channels. Retail seems to have “hit bottom” in February but most channels (not Gas Stations or Department stores) have showed some improvement in March and especially in April. Inflation is relatively low with some deflation, but prices are still high. We’ll continue to track the situation.

Retail Channel $ Update – March Monthly & April Advance

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In April, the Commodities CPI fell to -0.2% from 0.05% and Total Retail sales were +5.2% vs 24, 11.3% above their average April Lift. The Relevant Retail CPI slowed to 0.6% from 0.7% and sales vs 24 were +5.3%, 13.2% above average. There are other factors currently impacting sales, including high cumulative inflation and pre-tarifflation binge buying. The situation is complex but in regard to the size of YOY sales lifts vs 24, April is better than March.

It is also time for the annual adjustment of the survey by the Census Bureau. There are 2 big changes. Non-employer companies (about 1.8% of Retail $) were removed to match other reports like the Economic Census. This is minor but widespread, affecting data back to 1992. The other change is more visible. The NAICS code for Discount Department Stores has been discontinued. In recent years they have added a significant amount of grocery items to their stores so they are now classified as Club/SuperCtrs. This became effective in 2013. From 1992>2012, they are listed as Department Stores. I have revised my entire 1992>2025 monthly sales by channel database to reflect all changes.

The layout of my report is unchanged. We will begin with the Census Bureau’s March Monthly Report and then go to their April Advance Report. Our focus is still comparing to last year but also 21 & 19. We’ll show both actual and the “real” change in sales as we factor inflation into the data. Note: There is 1 change in the methodology for determining 92>24 Avg $ales lifts. I now use the POWER function.

Both reports include the following:

  • Total Retail, Restaurants, Auto, Gas Stations and Relevant Retail (removing Restaurants, Auto and Gas)
  • Individual Channel Data – This is more detailed in the Monthly reports, and we’ll focus on Pet Relevant Channels.

The data will be presented in detailed charts to facilitate visual comparison between groups/channels. The charts will show 11 separate measurements. To save space they will be displayed in a stacked bar format for the channel charts.

  • Current Month change – % & $ vs previous month
  • Current Month change – % & $ vs same month last year and vs 2021.
    • Current Month Real change vs last year and vs 2021 – % factoring in inflation
  • Current Ytd change – % & $ for this year vs last year, 2021 & 2019.
    • Current Ytd Real change % for this year vs last year and vs 2021 and 2019
  • Monthly & Ytd $ & CPIs for this year vs last year and vs 2021 which are targeted by channel will also be shown. (CPI Details are at the end of the report)

First, the March Monthly. All Big Groups were up from February but there were 2 actual YOY sales drops, Gas Stations vs 24. We should note that they are selling less product than in 21 & 19. 3 groups are “all positive”. There were none in February. Relevant Retail has been all positive in 12 of the last 16 months and in 8 of the last 10. ($ are Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Primarily due to the annual adjustment, the March Monthly is $10.2B less than the Advance report. Restaurants: -$0.3B; Auto: -$2.3B; Gas Stations: -$0.1B; Relevant Retail: -$7.5B. All big groups were up double digits from February. A Feb>Mar increase in Total Retail  has happened in every year but 2020 since 1992. Plus, the 15.3% lift was 14.6% bigger than the 13.3% average. There were only 2 YOY drops in actual sales vs 5 in February. There were also only 5 “real” sales drops (8 in Feb) and 3 groups were “all positive” (None in Feb). Restaurants still have the biggest increases vs 21 & 19 but Relevant Retail stayed at the top of “real” performance vs 2019. However, only 54% of their growth is real.

Now, let’s see how some Key Pet Relevant channels did in March (82% of Mar Ytd Rel Retl $)

Overall– All 11 were up from February. Vs Mar 24, 8 were actually and 7 “really” up. Vs Mar 21, 7 were up but only 4 were real increases. Vs 2019, The only negatives were Off/Gift/Souv & Dept Strs. Both were actually & really down.

  • Building Material Stores – The pandemic focus on home has produced sales growth of 33.5% since 2019. Prices for the Bldg/Matl group have inflated 18.7% from 21 and 21.9% from 2019 which is having an impact. Sales vs February were +23.9% for HomeCtr/Hdwe and +40.1% for Farm Stores. Vs other years, actual $ are only down monthly vs 21 for both & Ytd vs 24 for Home/Hdw. In Real $, both are down vs 21 and Home/Hdw is also down Ytd vs 24. Plus, only 22% of the Bldg Materials group’s 19>25 lift was real. Avg 19>25 Growth: HomeCtr/Hdwe: 4.2%, Real: 0.8%; Farm: 5.9%, Real: 2.4%
  • Food & Drug – Both are truly essential. Except for the pandemic food binge buying, they tend to have smaller changes in $. In terms of inflation, the Grocery rate is now 2.4 times higher than the rate for Drug/Med products. Drug Stores are positive in all measurements and 66% of their 2019>25 growth is real. Supermarkets’ actual $ are up in all comparisons. They are only “really” down monthly vs 2024 & 2021 and Ytd vs 2021. However, only 11.5% of their 19>25 increase is real growth. Avg 19>25 Growth: Supermarkets: +5.0%, Real: +0.6%; Drug Stores: +5.1%, Real: +3.5%.
  • Sporting Goods Stores – They also benefited from the pandemic in that consumers turned to self-entertainment, especially sports & outdoor activities. Sales are up +33.2% from February, but their only positives are vs 2019 & real vs Mar 24. Prices are still deflating, -5.0% vs 24. Deflation started in April 23 and is a big change from +1.1% in 22>23 and +7.9% in 21>22. The caused 74.7% of their 36.8% lift since 19 to be real. Avg 19>25 Growth Rate is: +5.4%; Real: +4.1%.
  • Gen Mdse Stores – All sales but real vs Mar 24 were up for Club/SupCtrs. $ Stores are actually & really down Monthly & Ytd vs 24 and really vs Mar 21. Department Stores are only actually up Ytd vs 21. Actual sales are -28.6% from 19, so negative growth for them – both actual & real. The other channels have an average of 44.6% in real growth. Avg 19>25 Growth: SupCtr/Club: 5.3%, Real: 2.5%; $/Value Strs: +5.3%, Real: +2.5%; Dept. Strs: -5.4%, Real: -7.0%.
  • Office, Gift & Souvenir Stores – After 2 consecutive monthly drops, sales grew +19.2% from February. However, they are still actually & really down Ytd vs 2019 & really down monthly & Ytd vs 21. Their recovery started late, but their progress may be slowly restarting again. Avg Growth Rate: -0.3%, Real: -1.9%
  • Internet/Mail Order – Sales are +10.3% from February and set a new March record of $112.0B. All measurements are positive, but their YOY growth, +6.8%, is only 46% of their average since 2019. However, 83.6% of their 130.7% growth since 2019 is real. Avg Growth: +14.9%, Real: +13.1%. As expected, they are by far the growth leader since 2019.
  • A/O Miscellaneous – Pet Stores are 22>24% of total $. In May 2020 they began their recovery which reached $100B for the first time in 2021. In 2022 their sales dipped in January, July, Sept>Nov, rose in December, fell in Jan>Feb 23, grew Mar>May, fell Jun>Aug, rose Sep>Nov, fell Dec>Jan 24, grew Feb>May, fell Jun>Sep, grew Oct, fell Nov, rose Dec, fell Jan>Feb, then grew in Mar. All measurements are again positive and they are in 2nd place, behind the Internet, in the % increase vs 19 and vs 21. Also, 79% of their 76.9% growth since 2019 is real. Average 19>25 Growth: 10.0%, Real: +8.2%

March had its usual lift vs February, but the Relevant Retail lift was only 1% above avg. All big & small channels were up. The YOY March lift was 18% below avg for Relevant Retl and $ were down for 3 smaller channels and 1 big group. Prices are deflating in 7 channels (5 in Feb) but cumulative inflation still impacts sales as only 4 channels were really up vs Mar 21. The Retail Recovery is still slow. The March commodities CPI was 0.05% but dropped to -0.2% in April. Let’s see if it impacts Retail.

Mar>Apr sales were down for Total, Restaurants & Auto. A Mar>Apr Total Retail drop has happened 85% of the time since 1992 but the 0.6% drop is 65% less than average. There were 2 YOY $ drops, the same as March. $ for all Big Groups but Gas Stations were up vs Apr 24 and the Total Retail lift of 5.2% vs Apr 24 was 11% above their +4.7% 92>24 avg. The Relevant Retail 5.3% increase vs 24 was also above their +4.7% avg (+13.2%). Inflation is still a factor. The CPI for all commodities fell to  -0.2% but it is still 16.7% vs 21. The inflation surge was beginning to accelerate back then (+6.8%). There is some other good “real” news. 4 “real” measurements were down compared to 5 in March. Also, like March, 3 Big Groups were all positive. Relevant Retail has been all positive in 9 of the last 11 months.

Overall Inflation Reality– The Total Retail CPI fell to -0.2% and the $ lift vs 24 was 11% above avg. The Restaurant CPI stayed at +3.8% but their sales lift was 23% above avg. Gas prices fell to -11.7% but they are still in turmoil. Auto inflation rose to 0.8% and it is +14.6% vs 21. Auto sales grew 8.6% vs 24 (97% above avg – pre-tariff buying). Inflation slowed to 0.6% for Relevant Retail. Their YOY lift was 13% above avg and they are again all positive. Slow progress continues.

Total Retail – Since Jun 20, every month but Apr 23, Jun 24 & Feb 25 has set a monthly $ales record. In 2023>24, Sales were on a roller coaster. Up Jul>Aug, down Sept, up Oct>Dec, down Jan 24, up Feb>Mar, down April, up May, down Jun, up Jul>Aug, down in Sep, up Oct>Dec, down Jan>Feb 25, up in Mar, then down in Apr. Prices are -0.2% and YOY sales vs 24 are +5.2%, 11% above the 92>24 avg change of +4.7%. 43.5% of the 19>25 growth is real. Prices are deflating but cumulative inflation and pre-tariff buying are still impacting sales. Growth: 24>25: 3.8%; Avg 19>25: +6.4%, Real: +3.0%.

Restaurants – They were hit hard by the pandemic and didn’t begin recovery until March 2021. However, they have had strong growth since then, exceeding $1T for the 1st time in 2023. April $ are up vs 24 and they have the biggest lifts vs 21 & 19. Inflation was stable at 3.8% but is now +25.4% vs 21 and +30.5% vs 19. Their 6.9% YOY lift is 23.4% above their +5.6% 92>24 avg. They are all positive again, but just 36.4% of their 58.2% growth since 2019 is real. They are 3rd in performance behind Relevant & Total Retail. Recovery started late but inflation started early. Growth: 4.6%; Avg 19>25: +7.9%, Real: +3.2%. They just account for 13.7% of Total Retail $, but their strong growth has helped Total Retail.

Auto (Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers) – They worked to overcome the stay-at-home attitude with great deals and advertising. They finished 2020 up 1% vs 2019 and hit a record $1.48T in 2021 but much of it was due to skyrocketing inflation. In 22, sales got on a rollercoaster. Inflation started to drop mid-year, but it caused 4 down months in actual $. Their YE real 2022 sales numbers were even worse, -8.2% vs 21 and -8.9% vs 19. 2023 started a true sales rollercoaster but the $ hit a record, $1.595T. $ fell in Jan 24, grew Feb>Mar, fell Apr, grew May, fell June, grew Jul>Aug, fell Sep, grew Oct, fell Nov, grew Dec, fell Jan>Feb 25, grew in Mar, then fell in Apr. April $ were +8.6% vs 24. (97% above avg – pre-tariff buying). Only real $ vs 21 are negative, but just 32.9% of 19>25 growth is real. Growth: 5.9%; Avg 19>25: +5.9%, Real: +2.1%

Gas Stations – Gas Stations were hit hard by “stay at home”. They started recovery in Mar 21 and inflation began. Sales got on a rollercoaster in 22 but set a record, $583B. Inflation started to slow in Aug 22 and prices slightly deflated in Dec & Feb 23, then strongly fell in Mar>Jul to -20.2%. In Aug they rose to -3.7%. In Sep they were +2.7% but began deflating to -4.2% in Feb 24. In Mar>May 24 their $ grew, fell June, rose July, fell Aug>Dec, rose Jan 25, then fell Feb>Apr. In Apr, $ are -6.5% vs 24 (4.9% avg) and only up vs Apr & Ytd 21 & 19. Real sales are down Ytd vs 21 & 19. Growth: -3.5%; Avg 19>25: +3.5%, Real: -0.4%. They show the cumulative impact of inflation and how deflation can be both positive and negative.

Relevant Retail – Less Auto, Gas and Restaurants – They account for ≈60% of Total Retail $ in a variety of channels, so they took many different paths through the pandemic. Their only down month until Feb 25 was April 2020, and they led the way in Total Retail’s recovery. Sales got on a roller coaster in 2022, but all months set new records with December reaching a new all-time high, $481B, and an annual record of $4.81T. In 2023, the roller coaster continued. A December lift set a new monthly record of $494.7B & an annual record of $4.997T. Sales fell Jan>Feb 24, rose in Mar, fell in Apr, rose in May, fell in June, rose Jul>Aug, fell Sep, rose Oct>Jan 25, fell in Feb, then rose Mar>Apr. The Apr 5.3% YOY lift is 13% above their 92>24 avg of +4.7%. They are all positive again and 54% of their 47.1% 19>25 growth is real – #1 in performance. Growth: 3.9%; Avg 19>25: +6.6%, Real: +3.8%. In 2024 their inflation rate dropped from 3.2% to 0.1%, stabilized at 0.5% Dec>Jan, rose to 0.7% in March, then slowed to 0.6% in April. Inflation is low but its cumulative impact can slow growth. We saw this in Feb>Mar. In April we saw some pre-tarifflation fear buying. We’ll see what happens next.

YOY inflation has slowed, but cumulative & impending lifts can affect sales. In April, 2 actual YOY $ comparisons were negative, the same as March. In April, there were 4 real drops, down from 5 in March. In March, Gas Stations were down vs 24 and only Restaurants & Auto had above avg lifts. In April, Gas Stations were again down but the YOY lifts for all other Big Groups were above avg. Also in April, 3 big groups were again all positive. Relevant Retail has now been all positive in 9 of the last 11 months. March was pretty good. April was better in some ways, but the recovery is still slow.

Here’s a more detailed look at April by Key Channels (98% of Apr Ytd Rel Retl $)

  • Relevant Retail: Growth: +3.9%; Avg 19>25: +6.6%, Real: +3.8%. Only 2 were up from March. Vs Apr 24: 10 were up, Real: 10, Vs Apr 21: 6 were up, Real: 5. Vs 19: Only Dept Stores were down – both actually & really.
  • All Department Stores – This group was struggling before the pandemic hit them hard. They began recovery in March 2021. Sales are +2.8% from March but only their actual Ytd numbers vs 21 are positive. Their -0.3% Apr YOY drop is 15 times better than their -4.5% avg decrease. Growth: -2.1%; Avg 19>25: -5.4%, Real: -7.0%.
  • Club/SuprCtr/$- They fueled a big part of the recovery because they focus on value which has broad consumer appeal. $ales are -2.1% from March, but they are positive in all measurements. However, only 43.9% of their 35.8% 19>25 lift is real. Their 5.4% YOY Apr lift is -34% below their 92>24 avg of +8.2%. Growth: 2.7%; Avg 19>25: +5.2%, Real: +2.5%.
  • Grocery- They depend on frequent purchases so their changes are usually less radical. Actual $ are -1.1% from March but positive in all actual comparisons. Cumulative inflation has hit them hard as real $ are down vs 21 and only 10% of 19>25 growth is real. However, their 5.5% YOY April lift is 82% above avg. Growth: 3.0%; Avg 19>25: +4.9%, Real: +0.5%.
  • Health/Drug Stores – Many stores are essential, but consumers visit less frequently than Grocery stores. $ are -0.9% from March but they are positive in all comparisons. Inflation has been relatively low so 66% of their 33.4% 19>25 growth is real. Their +8.8% YOY lift vs Apr 24 is 76% above avg. Growth: 6.5%; Avg 19>25: +4.9%, Real: +3.4%
  • Clothing and Accessories – Clothes mattered less when you stayed home. That changed in March 2021 with strong growth through 2022. Actual Sales are -1.8% from March, but they are only really down vs Apr 21. 66% of their 19>25 growth is real. $ are +5.9% vs Apr 24, double the avg lift (pre-tariff buying). Growth: 3.1%; Avg 19>25: +2.9%, Real: +1.9%
  • Home Furnishings – In mid-2020 consumers’ focus turned to their homes and furniture became a priority. Prices are still deflating but they were high in 22. $ are -3.3% from March but are only actually & really down monthly & Ytd vs 21. Only 27% of their 19>25 growth is real. YOY Apr lift: +7.7%, 150% above average (more prre-tariff buying). Growth: 6.2%; Avg 19>25: +3.1%, Real: +0.9%
  • Electronic & Appliances – This channel has had many issues. Sales fell in Apr>May of 2020 and didn’t reach 2019 levels until March 21. $ are -5.0% from March but they are only actually down vs Apr 21 & Ytd vs 24. Their strong deflation shows in high real numbers. Sales are +0.4% vs Apr 24, -81% below avg. Growth: -1.9%; Avg 19>25: +0.4%, Real: +3.6%.
  • Building Material, Farm & Garden & Hardware – They truly benefited from the consumers’ focus on home. In 2022 the lift slowed as inflation grew to double digits. Prices turned up in April but sales are +14.0% from March. Actual $ are only down vs Apr 21. Real sales are only down vs Apr 21 and Ytd vs 21. However, just 23.5% of their 19>25 sales growth is real. YOY sales vs Apr 24 were +1.9%, -56% below avg. Growth: 0.3%; Avg 19>25: +4.6%, Real: +1.2%.
  • Sporting Goods, Hobby and Book Stores – Consumers turned their attention to recreation and Sporting Goods stores sales took off. Book & Hobby Stores recovered more slowly. They have been on a sales rollercoaster since June 24 and $ are -5.7% from March. Actual & real sales are only up vs Apr 24 & 19. Real Ytd sales vs 24 are also up. 84% of their 19>25 growth is real. YOY Sales vs Apr 24 are +3.4%, 12% above avg. Growth: -1.0%; Avg 19>25: +3.9%, Real: +3.4%.
  • All Miscellaneous Stores – Pet Stores have been a key part of the strong and growing recovery of this group. They finished 2020 at +0.9% but sales took off in March 21 and have continued to grow. Sales are -0.2% vs March but positive in all comparisons. They are 2nd in the % increases vs 19 & vs 21 and 73.2% of their 53.3% 19>25 growth is real. Plus, their 5.1% YOY Apr lift is 17% more than their 92>24 avg of +4.4%. Growth: +6.2%; Avg 19>25: +7.4%, Real: 5.6%.
  • NonStore Retailers – 90% of their $ comes from Internet/Mail Order/TV. The pandemic accelerated online spending. They ended 2020 +21.4%. The growth continued in 2021 as sales exceeded $100B for the 1st time and they broke the $1 Trillion barrier. $ are -0.4% from March and their YOY lift of 5.5% vs Apr 24 is -46% below their 10.2% avg. However, they are positive in all comparisons and 82% of their 116.0% 19>25 growth is real. Growth: 6.1%; Avg 19>25: +13.7%, Real: +11.8%.

Note: Almost without exception, online sales by brick ‘n mortar retailers are recorded with their regular store sales.

Recap – The Retail recovery from the pandemic was largely driven by Relevant Retail and by the end of 2021 it had become very widespread. In 2022, there was a new challenge, the worst inflation in 40 years. Overall, inflation has slowed considerably from its June 22 peak and 7 channels, doing 44% of Relevant Retail’s 2025 $, are currently deflating (the same # as Mar). Any deflation can help the Retail situation. As expected, $ fell from March for 9 channels but the drops were usually smaller than average so the big lift for Bldg/Farm was enough to push Relevant Retail to +0.2% – a true rarity (avg chge: -1.1%). Their 5.3% lift vs April 24 was also above avg, +13.2%. 10 of 11 smaller channels had a $ increase vs 24 and 6 were above avg, up from 5 in March. Also, in both March & April, 3 big groups but only 4 Advance smaller channels were actually and really “all positive”. Relevant Retail has now been all positive in 9 of the last 11 months. The biggest concern is still YOY drops and smaller lifts. Monthly, the situation is improving. The YOY lifts vs Apr 24 for Relevant Retail and 6 of 11 smaller channels (41% of Relevant Retail’s 2025 $) were above their 92>24 average. However, ytd vs 24 the Relevant Retail lift is -18% below avg and only 3 smaller channels were above avg. The Retail recovery still has a way to go.

Finally, here are the details and updated inflation rates for the CPIs used to calculate the impact of inflation on retail groups and channels. This includes special aggregate CPIs created with the instruction and guidance of personnel from the US BLS. I also researched data from the last Economic Census to review the share of sales by product category for the various channels to help in selecting what expenditures to include in specific aggregates. Of course, none of these specially created aggregates are 100% accurate but they are much closer than the overall CPI or available aggregates. The data also includes the CPI changes vs 2021 to show cumulative inflation.

Monthly YOY CPI changes of 0.2% or more are highlighted. (Green = lower; Pink = higher)

Here are some answers to some obvious questions. Note: Overall Inflation slowed but Bldg/Farm had a significant lift.

  1. Why is the group for Non-store different from the Internet?
    • Non-store is not all internet. It also includes Fuel Oil Dealers, the non-motor fuel Energy Commodity.
  2. Why is there no Food at home included in Non-store or Internet?
    • Online Grocery purchasing is becoming popular but almost all is from companies whose major business is brick ‘n mortar. These online sales are recorded under their primary channel.
  3. 5 Channels have the same CPI aggregate but represent a variety of business types.
    • They also have a wide range of product types. Rather than try to build aggregates of a multitude of small expenditure categories, it seemed better to eliminate the biggest, influential groups that they don’t sell. This method is not perfect, but it is certainly closer than any existing aggregate.
  4. Why are Grocery and Supermarkets only tied to the Grocery CPI?
    • According to the Economic Census, 76% of their sales comes from Grocery products. Grocery Products are the driver. The balance of their sales comes from a collection of a multitude of categories.
  5. What about Drug/Health Stores only being tied to Medical Commodities.
    • An answer similar to the one for Grocery/Supermarkets. However, in this case Medical Commodities account for over 80% of these stores’ total sales.
  6. Why do SuperCtrs/Clubs and $ Stores have the same CPI?
    • While the Big Stores sell much more fresh groceries, Groceries account for ¼ of $ Store sales. Both Channels generally offer most of the same product categories, but the actual product mix is different.